黑色供应周报-铁合金 2026年2月27日 中泰期货研究所 黑色分析师:董雪珊 从业资格号:F3075616 交易咨询从业证书号 Z0018025 | | 筐 | | 万吨 | | 雄鉄 | | 万吨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地区 | 周产 | 环比(吨) | 累计同比 | 地区 | 周产 | 环比(吨) | 累计同比 | | 全国 | 19.74 | +3570 | -5.07 | 全国 | 9.86 | +560 | -8.97 | | 内蒙古 | 10.48 | +2170 | -3.26 | 内蒙古 | 3.62 | 0 | -1.39 | | 宁夏 | 4.22 | +700 | -2.94 | 宁夏 | 2.63 | +700 | +3.83 | | 广西 | 1.39 | +1750 | +3.79 | 陕西 | 1.81 | -140 | -1.20 | | 贵州 | 1.20 | 0 | +1.80 | 青海 | 0.92 | 0 | -7.93 | | 云南 | 0.45 | 0 | -2.37 | 甘肃 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Macro Outlook**: China's post - holiday market is active with increased trading volume and risk appetite. The A - share market is expected to see better performance from IC than IH. The bond market has limited short - term odds and should be traded with a band strategy. Global economic factors such as US - China trade talks, exchange rate fluctuations, and geopolitical events impact the market. The smartphone and automotive industries face challenges, while the real estate market shows signs of recovery in some areas [7][14][15]. - **Commodity Markets**: Different commodities have different trends. For example, steel and iron ore are expected to oscillate, and the future of these markets depends on demand. Some commodities like lithium carbonate are expected to be bullish in the short - term, while others like沪锌 and沪铅 may continue to be under pressure [16][25][29]. 3. Summary by Category **Macro News** - **Trade and Policy**: The sixth round of China - US economic and trade consultations is upcoming. The central bank supports cross - border RMB inter - bank financing. The RMB has appreciated rapidly against the US dollar [7]. - **Resource and Energy**: Zimbabwe bans the export of raw minerals and lithium concentrates, which impacts the lithium market. The third - round of indirect talks between Iran and the US ends, with significant differences remaining [7][8]. - **Financial and Market**: Compensation for investors affected by the valuation adjustment of Guotou Silver LOF starts. IDC predicts a 12.9% year - on - year decline in global smartphone shipments in 2026. Multiple smartphone brands plan price adjustments. The Chinese brand passenger vehicle sales decline in January 2026. The real estate market in some areas shows signs of recovery [8][9]. **Macro Finance** - **Stock Index Futures**: After the holiday, the A - share market is active. It is expected that IC will perform better than IH due to different sector performances and increased risk appetite [14]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is weak after the "Shanghai Seven" policy for the property market. Without interest - rate cut expectations, it is difficult for bond yields to decline further. Attention should be paid to the government's monetary and fiscal policies [15]. **Black Metals** - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The current supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is unlikely to be a large price change. The future market depends on the start of steel demand. Iron ore supply is abundant [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of coal mines and downstream demand [19]. - **Ferroalloys**: For manganese silicon, it is not recommended to chase long positions after a large increase. Silicon iron long positions are recommended. Attention should be paid to the start - up of semi - coke plants [20]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and new production capacity. For glass, pay attention to the actual changes in production lines and demand [21]. **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials** - **Copper**: In the short - term, copper prices will oscillate due to unstable macro - environment and inventory accumulation. In the long - term, tight raw material supply supports prices [23]. - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc inventories are increasing, and previous short positions should be held [25]. - **Lead**: Social lead inventories are at a 5 - month high. Previous short positions can be held, but lead consumption may improve in March [27]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short - term, it is expected to be bullish due to increased demand and supply disruptions. Attention should be paid to buying opportunities on pull - backs [29]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will oscillate, and polysilicon will have a wide - range oscillation. Caution is advised in operation [31]. **Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: Domestically, it is expected to be bullish, and low - buying and rolling operations are recommended. Attention should be paid to the demand after the holiday and international factors [34]. - **Sugar**: There is a short - term supply surplus, but the domestic sugar price may rebound due to restocking demand. It is in a low - level oscillation [35]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the spot price is weak, and the futures price will oscillate. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and old - hen culling [37]. - **Apples**: High - quality apple prices will remain stable, and the overall price will oscillate in a range [38]. - **Corn**: The futures price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure. After the holiday, corn trading has not fully recovered, and there are supply pressures [39]. - **Jujubes**: Currently, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the sales in the sales area and the mentality of buyers [40]. - **Hogs**: After the holiday, the market has a supply - demand imbalance with more supply. It is not recommended to short near - month futures contracts [41]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a game between geopolitical risks and fundamental oversupply. The upside space is limited [43]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the short - term focus is on the impact of oil prices dominated by geopolitics [44]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins have large supply pressure but are slightly supported by rising raw material prices. An oscillating and weakening trend is expected [45]. - **Rubber**: In March, the downstream export orders are good, and there is support at the cost side. Caution is advised when chasing long positions [46]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: There is still room for decline in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the changes in butadiene and downstream devices [47]. - **Methanol**: The current supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but there may be a price correction. Attention should be paid to port inventory and Iranian supply [48]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of demand and the impact of warehouse receipts [49]. - **Asphalt**: It follows oil price fluctuations, and attention should be paid to restocking demand after winter storage in March [51]. - **PVC**: In the short - term, it may be bullish, but the long - term supply - demand contradiction remains. Caution is advised [52]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: In the short - term, the supply - demand situation is under pressure, and prices follow oil price fluctuations. Consider long - short spreads for PX and PTA 5 - 9 contracts [53]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: In the absence of further geopolitical escalation, the main contract is expected to be bearish [54]. - **Pulp**: The port inventory is at a new high, and the market sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and price increases of finished products [56]. - **Logs**: The forward spot price is supported by cost, and attention should be paid to the impact of new delivery rules and market sentiment [57]. - **Urea**: The futures price is expected to oscillate bearishly. Attention should be paid to the difference between agricultural and industrial demand [57].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 26 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2026/2/26 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 原油 | 工业硅 | 燃油 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 合成橡胶 | 多晶硅 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | | 十债 | 液化石油气 | 沥青 | | | 0531-68808794 | | 五债 | 沪深300股指期货 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | 客服电话： | | 三十债 | 上证50股指期货 | 橡胶 | | | | | 红枣 | 烧碱 | 20号胶 | | | 400-618-6767 | | 鸡蛋 | 白糖 | 棉花 | | | 公司网址： | | 生猪 | 二债 | 棉纱 | | | | | 塑料 | 胶版印刷纸 | ...

晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 25 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | UN (A /UNDU | | 生 1 生平岡町 7 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 原油 | 工业硅 | 燃油 | | | | 生猪 | 液化石油气 | 沥青 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 多晶硅 | 20号胶 | | | | 红枣 | 白糖 | 橡胶 | | | | PVC | 铝 | 尿素 | | | | 铁矿石 | 十债 | 棉纱 | | | | | 五债 | 棉花 | | | | | 三十债 | 胶版印刷纸 | | | ...

国内宏观解读与展望： 春节假期国内出行火热但消费有待观察，美国援引IEEPA单边加征关税被判违宪 ——债市核心在于政策节奏与赔率，权益核心在于风偏修复持续性 2 0 2 6 - 2 - 2 4 中泰期货研究所宏观团队 李荣凯 从业资格号：F3012937 交易咨询从业证书号： Z0015266 TEL：13361063969 01 逻辑与策略（P3-4） 02 宏观主要资产资金流向变化（P5-6） 目 录 CONTENTS 03 近期宏观数据分析与回顾（P7-13） 04 资金面分析与债券期现指标监控（P14-24） 05 权益宽基指数基本面、流动性与期现指标监控（P25-31） 06 宏观经济中期基本面跟踪监控（P32-51） 07 宏观经济长波基本面跟踪监控（P52-53） 08 最新一期季月美联储会议分析+中央经济会议对比（P54-58） 09 美国最高法院裁决落地之基于IEEPA对等关税逻辑梳理与前瞻（P59-63） 逻辑与观点：债市核心在于政策与赔率，权益核心在于风偏修复持续性 返回目录 ◆ 经济数据：国内方面，2026年春节出行活跃程度为近五年最好，按照农历春节及后续累计同比口径，多项高频指数均指 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 24 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2026/2/24 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 铅 | 中证500股指期货 | 沥青 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 锌 | 沪深300股指期货 | 燃油 | | | | | 生猪 | 三十债 | 碳酸锂 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 鸡蛋 | 上证50股指期货 | 尿素 | | | 客服电话： | | PVC | 十债 | 烧碱 | | | | | 红枣 | 原油 | 对二甲苯 | | | 400-618-6767 | | 铁矿石 | 五债 | 塑料 | | | 公司网址： | | | 液化石油气 | 瓶片 | | | www.ztqh.com | | | 中证1000指数期货 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - From a policy perspective, OPEC+ maintains the policy framework of suspending production increases in Q1 2026, with March production unchanged, providing policy support for oil prices. The IEA monthly report lowers the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2026, and there is still pressure on supply surplus in Q1. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East cause the geopolitical premium to rise periodically. There is no new policy for the polyester industry chain, and the policy environment remains neutral [3]. - In terms of market rhythm, crude oil fluctuates strongly this week, with prices falling at the beginning of the week due to weak demand and rebounding in the latter half due to intensified tensions in the Middle East. The polyester chain shows a differentiated and volatile trend due to continued negative feedback from downstream and slow post - holiday resumption of work. PX and PTA are relatively resistant to decline and remain strong, while MEG is weak due to high - inventory pressure [3]. - In terms of supply - demand, PX supply is slightly more relaxed, and demand is marginally weak. PTA supply is affected by maintenance, and demand is sluggish, with inventory accumulation accelerating. MEG supply is marginally more relaxed, demand is shrinking, and high - inventory pressure persists. Short - fiber and bottle - chip show a pattern of weak supply and demand [4]. - In terms of valuation, PX profit remains relatively high, PTA processing fees are under pressure, MEG valuation is weak, short - fiber processing fees rise slightly, and bottle - chip processing fees are weak [4]. - In terms of trends, PX fluctuates with crude oil prices, PTA is mainly in high - level shock consolidation, MEG maintains a weak shock pattern, and short - fiber and bottle - chip fluctuate passively with raw materials. In terms of arbitrage, cautiously arrange positive spreads for PX, TA, and EG from May to September, and continue to go long on PTA and short on MEG [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Fluctuations - NYMEX crude oil futures fell by $3.82 to $60.65 per barrel, a decrease of 5.9%. ICE Brent crude oil futures fell by $1.27 to $67.68 per barrel, a decrease of 1.8%. Domestic crude oil futures fell by 1.7 yuan to 460.7 yuan per barrel, a decrease of 0.4%. Naphtha CFR Japan rose by $13.88 to $612.13 per ton, an increase of 2.3% [6]. - PX CFR China rose by $7.34 to $909.67 per ton, an increase of 0.8%. PTA East China spot price fell by 20 yuan to 5130 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.4%. Ethylene glycol East China spot price fell by 107 yuan to 3575 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.9% [6]. - Polyester chip East China spot price rose by 30 yuan to 5930 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.5%. Polyester short - fiber East China spot price fell by 10 yuan to 6570 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.2%. Polyester bottle - chip East China spot price fell by 50 yuan to 6200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.8% [6]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets 3.2.1 PX - This week, Zhejiang Petrochemical's reforming unit restarted, and Sinochem Quanzhou's 800,000 - ton PX unit was restarted on January 25 but has not yet produced qualified products. This week's PX output was 758,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.99%. The domestic average weekly PX capacity utilization rate was 91.65%, a week - on - week increase of 1.78%. The Asian average weekly PX capacity utilization rate was 80.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.97% [7]. - According to the PX weekly balance sheet, the supply - demand difference this week was - 29,900 tons, and the ending inventory was 3.3905 million tons [8]. 3.2.2 PTA - During the cycle, Dushan Energy shut down for maintenance near the weekend, and the overall domestic PTA output decreased slightly. This week's domestic PTA output was 1.462 million tons, a decrease of 1900 tons from last week and an increase of 43,700 tons from the same period last year. The domestic average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate was 76.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.20% [10]. - According to the PTA weekly balance sheet, the supply - demand difference this week was 169,500 tons, and the ending inventory was 3.415 million tons [11]. 3.2.3 MEG - This week, Sinochem Quanzhou's petrochemical integration unit completed maintenance and increased its load to normal levels. Satellite Petrochemical's 900,000 - ton production line switched to polyethylene production. The loads of Sanjiang Chemical and Sichuan Petrochemical increased, while the loads of three production lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical decreased. Xinjiang Guanghui's coal - based unit was under maintenance, and the load of Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Yulin Chemical increased. The weekly output was 417,100 tons, an increase of 91,000 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 6.65%. The total capacity utilization rate was 64.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.41% [13]. - According to the MEG weekly balance sheet, the supply - demand difference this week was 105,000 tons, and the ending inventory was 2.0186 million tons [14]. 3.3 Product - Specific Analysis 3.3.1 PX - Lack of driving force, PX prices fluctuate with crude oil. Spot prices fluctuate within a range, and the basis between futures and spot strengthens. Short - and medium - term processing fees increase slightly [23][26][29]. - The PX - naphtha spread and PX - MX spread are presented in the report, showing the change trends of processing fees [30]. 3.3.2 PTA - Boosted by costs, PTA prices strengthen slightly. The basis between futures and spot, spot processing fees, and futures processing fees show different trends [35][38]. - PTA production and capacity utilization rates are affected by maintenance, and inventory shows an upward trend. In December, PTA exports were 361,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.86% [39][43]. 3.3.3 MEG - The fundamentals are still weak, and the price center of gravity of ethylene glycol moves downward again. The basis, oil - based, coal - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based profits, and capacity utilization rates are presented in the report [48][54][55]. - In December, Saudi Arabia's MEG imports were 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82.52%. Port inventory increased month - on - month [64][66]. 3.3.4 Polyester Short - Fiber - The short - fiber processing fees are slightly repaired due to device shutdown. Spot processing fees increase, capacity utilization rate decreases significantly, production and sales are dull, and inventory increases month - on - month [69][74][81]. 3.3.5 Polyester Bottle - Chip - Supply is reduced, and prices follow raw materials to strengthen. The basis, spot processing fees, and capacity utilization rates are presented in the report. In December, bottle - chip exports were 588,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.44% [86][91][96]. 3.4 Downstream Industry Analysis - Polyester, filament, weaving, and dyeing industries: The weaving start - up rate and textile orders decline continuously. The polyester start - up rate is 79.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.45%. Filament production and sales are dull, inventory increases month - on - month, and profits are repaired month - on - month [100][101][103]. - In December, polyester exports were 1.3061 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.96% and a year - on - year increase of 2.59%. The weaving start - up rate is 11.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 47.66%, and textile orders are 5.81 days, a week - on - week decrease of 8.50% [109][112].

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交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 13 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2026/2/13 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 合成橡胶 | 碳酸锂 | 十债 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 橡胶 | 尿素 | 三十债 | | | | | 红枣 | 棉花 | 二债 | | | 0531-81678626 | | PVC | 棉纱 | 五债 | | | 客服电话： | | 塑料 | 多晶硅 | 烧碱 | | | | | 原油 | 白糖 | 硅铁 | | | 400-618-6767 | | 中证1000指数期货 | 工业硅 | 苹果 | | | 公司网址： | | | 胶版印刷纸 | | | | www.ztqh.com | | | 燃油 | | | | | | | 沥青 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Spring Festival market may continue, and attention should be paid to the performance of the style - shifting weighted index. The bond market sentiment has improved, and the rebound trend may continue. [9][10] - For various commodities, different trends and investment suggestions are given based on their fundamentals, market supply - demand, and macro - factors. For example, black commodities are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and some positions of high - level short orders in iron ore can be partially closed for profit. [12] - The performance of different sectors such as macro - finance, black, non - ferrous, agricultural products, and energy - chemical industries is analyzed comprehensively, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Trend Based on Fundamental and Quantitative Indicators - **Fundamental Analysis**: Commodities are classified as trend空头 (red dates), 震荡偏空 (carbonate lithium), 震荡 (thirty - year bonds, etc.), 震荡偏多 (fuel oil, etc.) based on fundamental factors. [2] - **Quantitative Analysis**: Commodities are classified as 偏空 (plastic, etc.), 震荡 (rapeseed oil, etc.), 偏多 (corn, etc.) based on quantitative indicators. [4] 3.2 Macro Information - The State Council carried out the 18th special study on "AI +" to promote AI innovation, industry development, and application. China's CPI and PPI data in January were released, with CPI rising and PPI showing a narrowing decline. The US January non - farm payrolls data was strong, affecting market expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. [6] - OPEC maintained its forecast of global oil supply and demand, and OPEC + production decreased in January. [7] 3.3 Stock Index Futures - The launch tests of the Long March 10 rocket and the Mengzhou manned spacecraft were successful. Relevant policies were issued to regulate the power market and prevent monopolistic behavior. ByteDance may be developing an AI chip. [8] 3.4 Treasury Bond Futures - Bond market sentiment improved, and the rebound trend may continue. The capital interest rate was stable, and inflation data was in line with expectations. [10] 3.5 Black Commodities - **Screw and Ore**: The trading rhythm this year is earlier than last year. Steel inventories may be high after the festival. Iron ore supply is abundant. In the short - term, steel and iron ore will oscillate. [12] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of coal mines and downstream demand after the festival. [13] - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese ore may see a slight inventory reduction in the short - term. Manganese silicon will oscillate, and silicon iron can be considered as a long - position variety in the medium - term. [15] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and the demand for glass is expected to be weak. [16] 3.6 Non - ferrous and New Materials - **Copper**: Employment and inflation data will increase short - term copper price fluctuations, but copper prices are still supported by expected interest - rate cuts. [18] - **Carbonate Lithium**: In the short - term, it will be in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to buying opportunities on dips. The market is optimistic about long - term demand. [19] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will oscillate with limited downward adjustment space. Polysilicon will oscillate widely, and cautious operation is recommended. [20] 3.7 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: It is in a stage of strong supply and weak demand, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to consolidate at a high level. Short - term trading is recommended. [23] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar follows international sugar prices and may rebound in a low - level range. Short - term trading in the low - level range before the festival is recommended. [26] - **Eggs**: Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see. Attention should be paid to the impact of chicken culling and molting after the festival on the second - quarter contracts. [30] - **Apples**: High - quality apple supplies may remain strong, and the futures price may be bullish. [31] - **Corn**: The purchase and sale are becoming quiet, and attention should be paid to opportunities after the festival. Corn prices will oscillate at a high level before the festival. [32] - **Red Dates**: Currently, it is expected to oscillate weakly. [33] - **Pigs**: The spot price is lower than expected, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines before the holiday. [35] 3.8 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Although the fundamentals are weak, the market is worried about geopolitical risks. Oil prices will oscillate with limited rebound space. [37] - **Fuel Oil**: Its price will follow the trend of oil prices, and the focus is on the impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices. [38] - **Plastic**: Polyolefins have large supply pressure and may oscillate weakly. [40] - **Rubber**: Overseas production areas are about to stop harvesting, which may support the price, but downstream replenishment is ending. Cautious trading is recommended. [41] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and pay attention to the opportunity of going long after the festival. [42] - **Methanol**: The long - term supply - demand pattern is improving, but attention should be paid to the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation. [43] - **Caustic Soda**: It will oscillate before the festival. Attention should be paid to the inventory change and the possibility of production reduction. [43] - **Asphalt**: It follows the trend of oil prices and is stronger than oil prices. The focus is on the change of Venezuelan crude oil discounts. [45] - **PVC**: The long - term supply - demand contradiction has not been improved, and attention should be paid to the risk of price correction. [46] - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It will follow the adjustment of crude oil prices in the short - term. The opportunity of long PTA and short EG arbitrage can be considered. [47] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Its price will follow crude oil prices, and the geopolitical uncertainty risk still exists. Cautious trading is recommended. [48] - **Paper Pulp**: The short - term price has support, but it is recommended to wait and see due to market risks. [49] - **Logs**: The market expects a pattern of strong supply and weak demand after the festival, and price pressure may increase. Attention should be paid to risk control. [50] - **Urea**: The futures market is emotional, and an oscillating trading strategy is recommended. [51]