Commodity Rating Based on Fundamental Analysis - **Trend Bearish**: No specific commodities mentioned - **Oscillating Bearish**: Fuel oil, Urea, Caustic soda, Alumina, Red dates, Live pigs, Asphalt [2] - **Oscillating**: CSI 300 Index Futures, Industrial silicon, SSE 50 Index Futures, CSI 500 Index Futures, CSI 1000 Index Futures, Liquefied petroleum gas, Polysilicon, Crude oil, 10-year Treasury bond futures, 2-year Treasury bond futures, Cotton, Rubber, 30-year Treasury bond futures, 5-year Treasury bond futures, Lithium carbonate, Cotton yarn, Sugar, Synthetic rubber, Aluminum, Pulp, PTA Ethylene glycol, Offset printing paper, Corn, Bottle chips, p-Xylene, Short fiber, Ferrosilicon, Silicomanganese, Glass, Eggs, Soda ash, Coke, Hot-rolled coil, Rebar, Iron ore, Coking coal, Apples, Methanol, Logs [2] - **Oscillating Bullish**: Plastic [2] - **Trend Bullish**: No specific commodities mentioned Commodity Rating Based on Quantitative Indicators - **Bearish**: Soybean meal 2, Rapeseed meal, Soybean meal, Sugar, Coke, PTA, Silicomanganese [4] - **Oscillating**: Methanol, Soybean meal 1, Corn, Shanghai Lead, Shanghai Silver, Shanghai Aluminum, Shanghai Copper, Polypropylene, Coking coal, Eggs, PVC, Plastic, Corn starch, Iron ore, Hot-rolled coil, Shanghai Zinc, Zhengzhou Cotton, Rebar, Rubber [4] - **Bullish**: Glass, Asphalt, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, Shanghai Tin, Soybean oil, Shanghai Gold [4] Macroeconomic News - China and the US reached consensus on economic and trade issues, with the US canceling the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspending relevant export control and investigation measures for one year. China will adjust or suspend relevant countermeasures accordingly [8] - The ECB maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the third consecutive time, believing that inflation has reached the 2% target. The Eurozone's Q3 GDP grew better than expected, but member states' performance diverged [9] - The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive time, with two policy committee members opposing and suggesting a 25-basis-point rate hike [10] - The CSRC approved the registration of Moore Thread's IPO on the STAR Market, with the company planning to raise 8 billion yuan [9] - The weighted average interest rate of newly issued commercial personal housing loans in Q3 2025 was 3.07% [9] Macro - Financial Market Stock Index Futures - Adopt a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. A - shares fell on heavy volume, but the lithium - battery industry chain was strong. The Q3 reports of A - share listed companies showed that revenue and net profit increased year - on - year, and the profit growth rate in Q3 improved significantly. Monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in Q4 [12] Treasury Bond Futures - Monetary policy loosening is in the implementation stage, and bonds still have upward momentum. The capital market is balanced and loose, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP [13][14] Black Metals Steel and Iron Ore - In the short term, the black metal market may adjust slightly and maintain an oscillating trend. Policy has a significant impact on market sentiment. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for coils is fair. Supply remains high, and steel mill profits are low. The valuation of steel is expected to remain between valley - and peak - electricity costs, and the rebound space of steel prices is limited [15] Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. Supply is gradually recovering, but there are still expectations of production checks and environmental protection restrictions. However, the weakening of steel demand in the off - season may limit the price rebound [17] Ferroalloys - It is recommended to take a bearish position on the medium - term trend of ferroalloys and control positions. The prices of ferroalloys rose in the morning and then fell in the afternoon due to the overall market decline [17] Soda Ash and Glass - It is recommended to wait and see. The inventory of soda ash is basically stable, and the supply is high. The inventory of glass decreased slightly, and the spot price is stable. Future attention should be paid to demand in the peak season and fuel upgrade progress [19] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - It is recommended to wait and see for aluminum. Although the market tension has eased, domestic demand is weak. For alumina, it is recommended to short on rallies as the supply surplus pressure is large, and cost support is weakening [21] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate will continue to oscillate strongly in the short term due to strong demand and a decrease in supply [22] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon will oscillate within a range as the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Polysilicon will also oscillate narrowly, with the lower limit supported by spot prices and the upper limit depending on capacity merger policies [23][24] Agricultural Products Cotton - It is recommended to be cautious when operating on the rebound of cotton prices. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. Although Zhengzhou cotton is supported by cost and basis repair, the overall supply pressure still restricts the rebound space [27] Sugar - It is recommended to either conduct short - rolling operations or wait and see. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and domestic supply pressure is increasing. However, cost support and import restrictions may limit the decline [28][29] Eggs - It is recommended to wait and see or try short - selling on rallies. The egg industry is in the process of capacity reduction, and the futures market is strong. However, the supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the increase in spot prices may be limited [30] Apples - Apples are expected to oscillate strongly. The prices in the western producing areas are firm, and the national inventory is lower than the same period last year. Future attention should be paid to price changes, inventory progress, and buyer sentiment [33] Corn - It is recommended to be cautious when shorting near - month contracts and consider going long on far - month contracts. Corn prices are oscillating. The support from state - owned grain depots and rigid demand may drive a short - term rebound, but new grain supply pressure and potential wheat substitution may limit the upward movement [34] Red Dates - It is recommended to short on rallies or wait and see. The market price of red dates is stable, and there is an expectation of a lower opening price [35] Live Pigs - It is recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies. The spot price is weakening, and the supply is abundant. The market lacks the conditions for a significant price rebound [35][36] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The price of crude oil is likely to fall as the supply - demand contradiction is becoming more prominent. EIA inventory decreased unexpectedly, but OPEC+ may increase production, and demand may be suppressed [38] Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil will follow the trend of oil prices. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the impact of sanctions on Russian supply [39] Plastics - Polyolefins may have an emotional rebound in the short term due to improved market sentiment, but the supply pressure is large, and it is recommended to hedge after the rebound [39] Rubber - Rubber will oscillate as the macro - level benefits have been realized, and there is no obvious fundamental logic. Short - term double - selling strategies can be considered [40] Methanol - It is recommended to adopt an oscillating strategy and consider going long in small amounts after a rebound driver appears. The market is highly volatile due to factors such as Iranian imports and gas restrictions, and inventory is high [41][42] Caustic Soda - It is recommended to take a bearish - oscillating view. The supply of caustic soda exceeds demand, but coal prices may provide some support. The risk of short - selling lies in the cost support after the weakening of liquid chlorine prices [43] Asphalt - Asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly. Oil prices are affected by geopolitical and macro factors, and asphalt demand is entering the end - stage, with production set to increase again [44] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG will follow the trend of crude oil in the short term. Supply is abundant, and demand may weaken. There is a possibility that LPG may underperform crude oil in the coming week [47]

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-shares showed a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 4000 points, and the North Securities 50 soaring over 8%. The new energy sector exploded, and sectors such as non-ferrous metals, computing hardware, quantum technology, and Hainan Free Trade Concept also rose significantly. Consider a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation [8]. - The implementation of monetary policy is entering a phase of realization, and bonds still have upward momentum. There is a divergence in the Fed's path of interest rate cuts, and the market's expectation of loose monetary policy is increasing [8][9][10]. - The black market is expected to continue its short - term rebound but with limited space, and maintain a mid - term oscillation pattern. The prices of double - coking coal may continue to oscillate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the disturbances from coal mine inspections and downstream molten iron production changes [11]. - For colored metals and new materials, it is recommended to wait and see for aluminum, and short on rallies for alumina. For zinc, hold short positions. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to oscillate within a range [17][18][20]. - In the agricultural products market, for cotton, consider shorting on rebounds with caution; for sugar, use a short - rolling strategy or wait and see; for eggs, wait and see or try shorting lightly on rallies; apples are expected to oscillate strongly; for corn, be cautious about shorting near - month contracts and consider going long on far - month contracts; for jujubes, wait and see; for live pigs, short near - month contracts on rallies [25][27][29][31][32][33]. - In the energy and chemical market, the contradiction between supply and demand of crude oil is expected to become more prominent, and oil prices are likely to fall. Fuel oil prices will follow oil prices. Polyolefins may have an emotional rebound in the short term, but the fundamentals are not significantly improved. Rubber is in an oscillation pattern. Methanol is recommended to be treated with an oscillation strategy. Caustic soda is also in an oscillation pattern. Asphalt is expected to oscillate. For the polyester industry chain, consider short - term long positions. LPG is expected to follow crude oil in the short term but may be relatively weaker than crude oil in the future. Pulp can consider going long on far - month 01 contracts if the spot is stable. Logs are expected to be under pressure. Urea is expected to oscillate weakly. Synthetic rubber is recommended to stop losses in the short term and be cautious about chasing up [36][37][38][39][40][41][44][45][46][47][48]. Summary by Directory Macro News - China and the US agreed that President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30th to exchange views on China - US relations and common concerns [4]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, and will end the balance - sheet reduction on December 1st. There are significant differences within the Fed regarding the future path of interest rate cuts [4]. - China's purchase of soybeans from the US was reported, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that China's position on relevant issues is consistent [4]. - The CSRC clarified key measures to promote the reform of the Beijing Stock Exchange and the New Third Board, including improving the issuance and listing mechanism of the Beijing Stock Exchange, activating the "cultivation" function of the New Third Board, etc. The chairman of the Beijing Stock Exchange said that the North Securities 50 ETF will be launched soon, and post - market fixed - price trading will be studied [5]. - As of the end of the third quarter, the scale of ETFs held by Central Huijin Investment and related entities increased by more than 200 billion yuan in a single quarter, reaching about 1.55 trillion yuan, continuing to support the stock market [5]. - Ningquan Asset announced that it will suspend accepting new investors' first - time subscription applications for all its funds from October 30th [5]. - South Korea and the US reached a specific economic and trade agreement. South Korea will invest 200 billion US dollars in cash and 150 billion US dollars in shipbuilding cooperation in a 350 - billion - dollar project. The US will reduce the tariff on South Korean cars from 25% to 15% [5]. - The US Senate passed a bill to terminate the national emergency used by the Trump administration to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, but the House of Representatives may not vote on overturning the tariff until March next year [6]. - The US announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, targeting two major Russian oil companies and their 34 subsidiaries [6]. - It is expected that Russia's retail gold purchases will reach 62.2 tons this year, and Russian people have accumulated 282 tons of gold purchases since the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - The Reserve Bank of India has repatriated nearly 64 tons of gold in the first six months of this fiscal year, and the proportion of domestic gold reserves has almost doubled compared to four years ago [6]. Stock Index Futures - A - shares showed a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.7% at 4016.33 points, and the daily trading volume reaching 2.29 trillion yuan. Consider a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation [8]. Treasury Bond Futures - The implementation of monetary policy is entering a phase of realization, and bonds still have upward momentum. There is a divergence in the Fed's path of interest rate cuts, and the market's expectation of loose monetary policy is increasing [8][9][10]. Black Market - **Screw and Ore**: In the short term, the black market is expected to continue its rebound but with limited space, and maintain a mid - term oscillation pattern. Pay attention to the impact of Sino - US relations and relevant meetings on the market. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is acceptable. Iron ore and other raw material prices are oscillating, and steel prices are expected to have limited rebound space [11]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of double - coking coal may continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. Pay attention to the disturbances from coal mine inspections and downstream molten iron production changes. In the short term, the supply of coking coal may contract, and the high molten iron production supports the price, but the potential negative feedback risk from weakening steel demand may limit the price increase [11][12]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferrosilicon, the upper limit of the futures price may face strong hedging pressure. For silicomanganese, it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term and control positions [12]. Colored Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: For aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see as the domestic demand is weak. For alumina, short on rallies as the supply surplus pressure is large [17]. - **Zinc**: As of October 27th, the domestic zinc inventory increased. Hold short positions as the Fed's decision will briefly affect the price [18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to strong demand and short - term supply approaching its peak [20][21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to oscillate within a range. The price of polysilicon is supported by the spot price, and the upper limit depends on the implementation of capacity merger policies [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Consider shorting on rebounds with caution as the supply pressure is increasing and the demand is weak. The impact of Sino - US trade relations on the market needs to be further observed [25]. - **Sugar**: Use a short - rolling strategy or wait and see as the global sugar supply is in surplus, and the domestic supply pressure is increasing, but the cost supports the price [27]. - **Eggs**: Wait and see or try shorting lightly on rallies. The egg market is in a process of "capacity reduction", but the supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the increase in egg prices may be limited [29]. - **Apples**: Expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the price changes, storage progress, and the purchasing sentiment of merchants [31]. - **Corn**: Be cautious about shorting near - month contracts and consider going long on far - month contracts. The corn market is facing short - term supply pressure, and pay attention to the sales progress of new grain and the release rhythm of policy wheat [32]. - **Jujubes**: Wait and see as the market price is stable, and pay attention to the price changes after the new season's centralized listing [33]. - **Live Pigs**: Short near - month contracts on rallies. The supply - demand pattern is in a stalemate, and the spot price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to the end - of - month slaughter rhythm of large - scale enterprises [33]. Energy and Chemical Market - **Crude Oil**: The contradiction between supply and demand is expected to become more prominent, and oil prices are likely to fall. The EIA inventory decreased, and the Sino - US negotiation released a positive signal, but the supply is expected to increase, and the demand may be suppressed [36]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow oil prices. The supply - demand structure is loose, and the short - term focus is on the impact of sanctions on Russia's supply [37]. - **Plastic**: Polyolefins may have an emotional rebound in the short term, but the fundamentals are not significantly improved. It is recommended to use a hedging strategy after the rebound [38]. - **Rubber**: In an oscillation pattern. Consider double - selling strategies or short - term long positions on pullbacks [39]. - **Methanol**: Treat with an oscillation strategy. The current situation is weak, but there are potential positive factors such as winter natural gas restrictions. Wait for a rebound driver and then consider a small - scale long position [40]. - **Caustic Soda**: In an oscillation pattern. The supply is in surplus, and the coal price provides some support. Be cautious about the risk of shorting [41]. - **Asphalt**: Expected to oscillate. The price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors, and the demand is in the seasonal peak but gradually approaching the end [42]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Consider short - term long positions as the market sentiment is strong. Pay attention to the results of relevant meetings and the implementation of policies [44]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Expected to follow crude oil in the short term but may be relatively weaker than crude oil in the future. The supply is abundant, and the demand may weaken [45]. - **Pulp**: Consider going long on far - month 01 contracts if the spot is stable. The macro sentiment is improving, and the fundamentals are relatively stable [46]. - **Logs**: Expected to be under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [46]. - **Urea**: Expected to oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the impact of the cost side on the futures price, and the supply - demand situation has deteriorated [46][47]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Stop losses in the short term and be cautious about chasing up. The price is affected by the cost and device maintenance, and pay attention to downstream procurement and macro sentiment [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, there are trend short positions in synthetic rubber, alumina, etc.; oscillating short - biased positions in liquefied petroleum gas, crude oil, etc.; oscillating positions in Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Futures, apple, etc.; oscillating long - biased positions in some products; and trend long positions in none. Based on quantitative indicators, there are short - biased positions in sugar, hot - rolled coils, etc.; oscillating positions in Shanghai silver, palm oil, etc.; and long - biased positions in rebar, asphalt, etc. [2] - For the stock market, A - shares showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to develop strategic emerging industries, and the easing of Sino - US relations may boost risk appetite. The market expects an increase in monetary policy in the fourth quarter, and it is advisable to consider a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. [8] - For the bond market, as the implementation of increased monetary policy is approaching, bonds still have upward momentum. [9] - For the black market, steel and ore may continue to rebound in the short term but with limited space, and remain oscillating in the medium term; coking coal and coke may run strongly in the short term but are restricted by potential negative feedback risks; ferroalloys are still recommended to be short - biased on rallies in the medium term. [10][11][12] - For the non - ferrous and new materials market, it is advisable to wait and see for aluminum, short on rallies for alumina, hold short positions for zinc, and expect lithium carbonate to run strongly in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon will run in a narrow range. [16][18][19] - For the agricultural products market, it is advisable to short on rallies for cotton, short - roll or wait and see for sugar, operate in an oscillating manner for eggs, expect apples to run strongly, be short - biased for near - term corn contracts and long - biased for far - term contracts, wait and see for jujubes, and short near - term contracts for live pigs. [22][24][25][27][29][30] - For the energy and chemical market, crude oil is likely to fall, fuel oil and asphalt will follow oil prices, plastics will run weakly, rubber will oscillate, methanol is recommended to be long - biased in small amounts after a rebound drive appears, caustic soda will be treated with an oscillating mindset, the polyester industry chain can be short - term long - biased, LPG may weaken relative to crude oil, paper pulp can be long - biased on dips, logs will be under pressure, urea will run weakly, and synthetic rubber will be short - biased in the short term. [32][33][34][37][41][43] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro News - The full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal is released, aiming for economic growth in a reasonable range, promoting the development of strategic emerging industries, and breaking through key core technologies. China and ASEAN sign the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol. There will be a Sino - EU talk on rare earths. China will expand financial opening - up. The US Senate fails to pass a bill to end the government shutdown. Japan plans to invest $550 billion in the US. ADP will launch weekly employment data. The Bank of Korea may buy gold. [4][5][6] Stock Index Futures - A - shares rise and then fall. The "15th Five - Year Plan" promotes the development of emerging industries. Sino - US talks may boost risk appetite. The market expects an increase in monetary policy in the fourth quarter. It is advisable to consider a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. [8] Treasury Bond Futures - After the tax period, the capital market eases. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Bonds still have upward momentum. [9] Steel and Ore - Policy is favorable to market sentiment. In the short term, pay attention to Sino - US relations; in the medium term, focus on the Central Political Bureau Meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for coils is okay. Iron - making output remains high, and steel mills' profits are low. Steel prices may rebound in the short term but with limited space and remain oscillating in the medium term. [10] Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may run strongly in the short term, but are affected by mine inspections and downstream iron - making output. Supply may shrink in the short term, and demand supports prices, but potential negative feedback risks from weakening steel demand and shrinking steel mill profits will restrict the rebound height. [11] Ferroalloys - The over - supply situation is difficult to reverse in the medium term. It is recommended to be short - biased on rallies. The volatility is low, and it may run in a narrow range. [12] Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash oscillates, and glass is relatively strong. It is advisable to wait and see. Soda ash supply returns to a high level, and new capacity is yet to be put into production. Glass prices are stable, and mid - stream inventory needs to be digested. [14] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - For aluminum, it is advisable to wait and see as it may follow the upward trend. For alumina, short on rallies due to over - supply. For zinc, hold short positions as domestic inventory increases. Lithium carbonate will run strongly in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon will run in a narrow range. [16][18][19] Agricultural Products - For cotton, short on rallies due to increasing supply and weak demand. For sugar, short - roll or wait and see because of global over - supply. For eggs, operate in an oscillating manner as the "de - capacity" process starts but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. Apples will run strongly. For corn, be short - biased for near - term contracts and long - biased for far - term contracts. Wait and see for jujubes. For live pigs, short near - term contracts as supply and demand are in a stalemate. [22][24][25][27][29][30] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is likely to fall due to over - supply. Fuel oil and asphalt will follow oil prices. Plastics will run weakly. Rubber will oscillate. Methanol is recommended to be long - biased in small amounts after a rebound drive appears. Caustic soda will be treated with an oscillating mindset. The polyester industry chain can be short - term long - biased. LPG may weaken relative to crude oil. Paper pulp can be long - biased on dips. Logs will be under pressure. Urea will run weakly. Synthetic rubber will be short - biased in the short term. [32][33][34][37][41][43]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market may see an increase in risk appetite due to Sino - US talks, and the trading volume has rebounded. The monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the fourth quarter. [13][14] - The prices of various commodities show different trends. For example, some are expected to be in a narrow - range shock, some are expected to be weak, and some are expected to be strong in the short - term. The trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations. [17][19][24] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - At the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference, central bank governor Pan Gongsheng, Financial Regulatory Administration director Li Yunze, and CSRC chairman Wu Qing made important statements. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, resume Treasury bond trading in the open market, and strengthen macro - prudential management. [8] - In September, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 21.6% year - on - year, with faster growth in high - tech and equipment manufacturing, and significant acceleration in the profits of private and foreign - funded enterprises. [8] - The CSRC issued the "Work Plan for Optimizing the Qualified Foreign Investor System" and the "Several Opinions on Strengthening the Protection of Small and Medium - Sized Investors in the Capital Market", which are expected to enhance the attractiveness of foreign capital and improve the protection of investors. [9] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt the strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. The A - share market rose on Monday, and Sino - US talks may boost risk appetite. The trading volume has rebounded, and the monetary policy is expected to be loosened. [13] Treasury Bond Futures - The monetary policy is expected to be further loosened, and bonds still have upward momentum. Although the bond market was suppressed in the morning due to the increase in risk appetite, the central bank's decision to restart bond - buying led to a significant decline in bond yields. [15] Black Steel and Iron Ore - In the short - term, the market may rebound slightly, but the space is limited. In the medium - term, it will maintain a volatile trend. Pay attention to Sino - US relations and policies at the end of the year. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is fair. The supply of molten iron remains high, and the prices of raw materials are volatile. [17] Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to be volatile and strong in the short - term. Pay attention to production inspections at coal mines and changes in molten iron output. The supply may shrink in the short - term, and the demand is supported, but the weakening demand for steel in the off - season may limit the upward space. [19] Ferroalloys - The over - supply situation of ferroalloys is difficult to reverse in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies. The prices of ferroalloys were affected by the strong performance of the black market and macro - sentiment, and the silicon iron price was more volatile due to the decline in thermal coal prices. [20][21] Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, short - term short positions can take profits. For glass, it is recommended to wait and see. The inventory of soda ash has decreased slightly, and the supply has declined. The new capacity of glass needs time to be released, and the mid - stream inventory is high. [22] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see. The market sentiment is boosted by factors such as interest rate cuts and Sino - US talks, but the domestic market may follow the upward trend weakly. For alumina, it is recommended to short on rallies as the supply surplus pressure is large. [24] Zinc - Hold short positions. The domestic zinc inventory has increased, and the spot trading is light. The import of refined zinc has decreased significantly. The domestic and international market logics are different, and the zinc price has shown a downward resonance since October. [25] Lithium Carbonate - It will be in a strong and volatile state in the short - term. The demand is strong, and the supply is close to the peak. The current supply - demand situation drives the price upward. [26] Industrial Silicon - It will fluctuate weakly in a range. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Although there is a pressure on supply in reality, the supply and demand are in a loose balance considering the reduction in production in the southwest during the dry season. [27][29] Polysilicon - It will continue to fluctuate narrowly in a range. The spot price supports the lower limit, and the upper limit depends on the implementation of capacity merger policies. There is no strong driving force for upward or downward movement. [30] Agricultural Products Cotton - Adopt the strategy of shorting on rallies with caution. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. Although Sino - US trade relations may bring some fluctuations, the actual demand change needs further observation. [32] Sugar - Short positions can be rolled or wait and see. The global sugar market is in surplus, and the long - term demand is worrying. The domestic supply pressure is gradually increasing, but the cost supports the price. [34] Eggs - Trade according to the volatile strategy. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short in the short - term. The egg - laying hen industry is in the process of capacity reduction, and the futures are strong, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the increase in spot prices may be limited. [37] Apples - The price will fluctuate strongly. The prices in the western producing areas are firm, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants has increased. Pay attention to the price changes, storage progress, and purchasing sentiment of merchants. [39] Corn - Be cautious and short on near - month contracts, and consider going long on far - month contracts. The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure in the northeast is still accumulating. The possible release of policy wheat may have a substitution impact on corn. [40] Red Dates - Wait and see. The market price is stable, but the opening price is expected to decline, leading to a significant decline in the futures price. [41] Pigs - Wait and see in the short - term. The supply - demand situation is deadlocked, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the slaughter rhythm of large - scale enterprises at the end of the month. [41] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The supply - demand contradiction of crude oil is expected to become more prominent, and the oil price is likely to fall. Although the price has rebounded due to geopolitical conflicts and Sino - US macro - expectations, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand may be suppressed. [43] Fuel Oil - The price will follow the oil price. The supply - demand structure of fuel oil is loose, and the short - term focus is on the impact of sanctions on Russia's supply. [44] Plastics - It will fluctuate weakly. The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the upstream profit has slightly recovered after the recent rebound, with limited upward momentum. [45] Rubber - There is no obvious trend, and it is mainly in a shock state. Short - term double - selling strategies or short - term long - buying on pullbacks can be considered. [47] Methanol - Adopt a volatile strategy and wait for the opportunity to go long in small positions after the rebound driver appears. The market is in a game around factors such as the arrival of Iranian goods, and the supply pressure is large, but there are also some positive factors. [48] Caustic Soda - Adopt a volatile strategy. Although the spot price is weak, there is cost support, and the weak performance of alumina suppresses the futures price. [49] Asphalt - The price trend is strong. The oil price has no main - line logic, and the later focus is on the concern about raw materials caused by the US military threat to Venezuela. The current demand is in the peak season, and the inventory is decreasing at a normal rate. [50] Printing Paper - It is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply may be excessive due to the resumption of production by Chenming during the off - season. In the short - term, the fundamental situation has no obvious change, and some option strategies can be considered. [52] Polyester Industry Chain - Consider going long in small positions on dips in the short - term. The market sentiment has been boosted by the improvement of the macro - environment and news. The supply - demand situations of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. have different changes. [53] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The short - term trend is strong, but the supply is abundant. The demand for the blending oil market may weaken, and the profit of PDH has recovered. The Sino - US trade negotiation may affect the price. [54] Pulp - Observe the inventory reduction at ports and spot trading. If the spot price is stable, long positions can be established in the far - month 01 contract in small positions. [55] Logs - Be cautious when shorting. After the rebound, short positions can be established in small positions. The import cost may decrease, the supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is weakening. [56] Urea - Adopt a weakly volatile strategy. Pay attention to the impact of the cost side on the futures. The supply - demand situation has deteriorated compared with the previous period. [56] Synthetic Rubber - The short - term trend is weak. Be cautious when shorting on sharp drops, and consider selling call options on rebounds. [57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market shows a complex situation with supply and demand factors interacting. Supply - side factors include changes in domestic production and imports, while demand - side factors involve downstream production and consumption. The market is also affected by inventory levels, price trends, and cost - profit relationships. In the short - term, the market is expected to remain volatile, and long - term trends are influenced by factors such as future supply projections and terminal demand capabilities [6][8][10] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - Domestic production: In the week of 2025/10/24, domestic broadleaf pulp production was 23.50 million tons, up 0.30 million tons from the previous week, and chemimechanical pulp production was 23.60 million tons, up 0.80 million tons. Huanggang Chenming's softwood pulp line planned a one - month shutdown starting on September 29, with an annual capacity of 550,000 tons and an expected impact of 45,000 tons [6][7] - Imports: In September 2025, China's pulp imports were 2.952 billion tons, a 11.3% month - on - month increase and a 10.3% year - on - year increase. The cumulative imports for the year were 27.061 billion tons, a 5.6% year - on - year increase. Softwood pulp imports were 691,000 tons, and broadleaf pulp imports were 1.356 billion tons. Overseas shipments of softwood and broadleaf pulp showed different trends, with softwood shipments expected to be stable to slightly lower in October and broadleaf shipments expected to remain sufficient in November [7] 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - Demand: Downstream production of various paper products showed a slight increase in the week of 2025/10/23 compared to the previous week. The total pulp demand was 902,600 tons, a 25,800 - ton increase. New production capacities were being put into operation, but terminal demand was limited, resulting in stable production but decreasing operating rates [8] - Inventory: Port inventories were in a state of oscillating accumulation, with Qingdao Port's inventory at 1.39 billion tons, down 12,000 tons from the previous week. Warehouse receipt inventories were in a state of slightly decreasing, suppressing the 11 and 12 contracts. Downstream finished - product inventories were in a state of oscillating accumulation [8] 1.3 Price and Spread - Prices: Foreign offers for softwood pulp decreased, while spot prices showed a polarization between softwood and broadleaf, with broadleaf being relatively firm and softwood being relatively weak. Futures prices were in a state of oscillation, with the 01 contract having less pressure due to fewer new warehouse receipts, but the fundamentals remained weak [10] - Spreads: The spread between softwood and broadleaf pulp remained high and stable, and the futures spread widened as some short - positions moved to the far - month 01 contract. The basis was stable [10] 1.4 Cost and Profit - Costs: Domestic pulp costs were stable, and imported pulp costs had different trends. Foreign offers were rising, causing the profit margin of imported pulp to shrink [12] - Profits: Domestic pulp profits were expected to slightly recover, and imported pulp profits were stable. The profits of finished paper products were generally stable [12] 1.5 Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, it is recommended to observe whether port de - stocking continues and the situation of spot transactions. If the spot is stable, long positions in the far - month 01 contract can be appropriately established, but risk prevention is necessary. If the warehouse receipt problem of the 11 contract is not resolved, short positions in the 11 contract can be considered [15] Part 2: Pulp Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows the supply, demand, and inventory data of pulp from January 2024 to November 2025. Supply includes imports and domestic production, demand includes pulp consumption and other needs, and inventory includes warehouse receipt inventory and port inventory. The data shows the cumulative and year - on - year changes of each item, and the supply - demand gap and inventory - consumption ratio are also calculated [17] Part 3: Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - No detailed data or analysis provided in the content 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - side - Pulp imports: The report provides data on the imports of various types of pulp, including softwood pulp, broadleaf pulp, chemimechanical pulp, and wood chips, from 2022 to 2025, showing the monthly and cumulative import volumes and year - on - year changes [33][37][41] - Seasonal and cumulative imports: The seasonal and cumulative import data of softwood pulp from different countries are presented, as well as the import data of chemimechanical pulp, unbleached pulp, and wood chips [45][50][62] 3.2.2 Demand - side - Pulp demand: The report shows the demand for pulp in the downstream paper products industry, including the production of various paper products and the total pulp demand [8] - Finished paper products: The production, import, export, and demand of various finished paper products such as toilet paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard are analyzed, and the planned production capacity and production progress of some products are also mentioned [82][96][114] 3.2.3 Inventory - side - Total pulp inventory: The total pulp inventory, including warehouse receipt inventory and port inventory, is presented, showing the weekly data from 2022 to 2025 [142] - Inventory by port: The weekly inventory data of pulp in different ports such as Qingdao Port, Tianjin Port, Changshu Port, and Gaolan Port from 2022 to 2025 are provided [150] Part 4: Cost and Profit - Pulp import cost and profit: The cost and profit of imported pulp are analyzed, with the cost being affected by foreign offers and the profit margin shrinking [162] - Domestic pulp production cost and profit: The production cost and profit of domestic pulp are analyzed, with the profit expected to slightly recover [165] Part 5: Pulp Price and Spread Analysis 5.1 Pulp Foreign Offers - The seasonal price data of various types of pulp such as Silver Star, Russian Needle, and Goldfish from 2022 to 2025 are presented [174] 5.2 Price Spread - The seasonal spread data between different types of pulp such as Silver Star - Goldfish, Russian Needle - Goldfish, and Silver Star - Russian Needle from 2022 to 2025 are presented [177] 5.3 Basis - The basis data between Silver Star, Russian Needle, and the main contract from 2022 to 2025 are presented [180] 5.4 SP Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread - No detailed data or analysis provided in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The weekend Sino - US trade negotiation sent out mild signals, forming a preliminary consensus on relevant issues, which improved the market risk appetite. The US CPI in September was weaker than expected, strengthening the expectation of an interest rate cut in October. The "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions in China boosted the market sentiment. Macro factors are generally favorable to copper prices. On the fundamental side, intensified disturbances in the mining end increased the expectation of copper ore shortage, supporting copper prices. Recently, the improvement in market risk appetite and the resonance of macro and micro factors jointly drove up the center of copper prices. Currently at the tail of risk pricing, copper prices are expected to be strong in the short - term. The strategy is to expect a volatile and upward trend, and recommend buying on dips [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Part 01: Weekly Review - **Supply - side Data**: The spot TC of copper concentrate decreased from - 40.97 to - 42.7 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.22%. The market was quiet, and attention should be paid to the long - term negotiation results in November. The refined - scrap copper price difference increased from 3123 to 3438 yuan/ton, a rise of 10.07%. The southern crude copper processing fee decreased from 1000 to 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10%. The refined copper rod operating rate decreased from 63% to 62%, a decrease of 1.52%. The recycled copper rod operating rate increased from 18% to 19%, a rise of 2.19%. The wire and cable operating rate increased from 62% to 62.4%, a rise of 0.69% [7]. - **Inventory Data**: Global visible inventory increased, mainly from the accumulation in COMEX and domestic inventories, while LME inventory decreased. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased from 17.75 to 18.16 million tons, a rise of 2.31%. The bonded area inventory decreased from 9.77 to 9.28 million tons, a decrease of 5.02%. The total global inventory increased from 71.05 to 73.58 million tons, a rise of 3.57% [7]. - **Profit Data**: The smelting comprehensive profit (spot) decreased from - 3453 to - 4992 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44.56%. The smelting comprehensive profit (long - term) decreased from - 106 to - 1559 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1368.14%. The import profit increased from - 601 to - 581 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.30% [7]. 3.2 Part 02: Copper Industry Chain Analysis - **Price and Spread**: The report presents data on SMM1 electrolytic copper premium/discount, Shanghai copper month - to - three - month spread, sulfuric acid price, Shanghai copper main contract closing price, Shanghai - London ratio, and LME(0 - 3) premium/discount over multiple years [12][15][17]. - **Cost and Profit**: It shows the electrolytic copper comprehensive profit (including by - product sulfuric acid), spot copper import profit, feed - in processing spot export profit, and electrolytic copper comprehensive profit (long - term) over multiple years [19][20]. - **Supply**: Data on copper concentrate production in Chile and Peru, copper concentrate import volume, scrap copper import volume, crude copper import volume, electrolytic copper production, electrolytic copper import volume, and total electrolytic copper supply are provided, including monthly and cumulative data and their changes over multiple years [26][30]. - **Demand**: - **Copper Rod - Cable**: Information on the operating rate of refined copper rod production, copper rod wire raw material inventory, copper rod wire finished product inventory ratio, and the operating rate of wire and cable production (weekly, monthly) is given [31]. - **Cable Terminal - Power Grid**: Data on cumulative and monthly power grid investment completion amount, cumulative and monthly power source investment completion amount, and their changes over multiple years are presented [33]. - **Copper Tube - Air Conditioner**: Information on the monthly operating rate of copper tubes, copper tube raw material inventory ratio, copper tube finished product inventory, monthly household air - conditioner production, domestic sales, and export volume, and their changes over multiple years are provided [42]. - **Copper Plate - Strip**: Data on the monthly operating rate of copper plate - strip, copper plate - strip raw material inventory, and copper plate - strip raw material inventory ratio, and their changes over multiple years are presented [44]. - **Terminal - Automobile**: Information on monthly automobile production, new - energy automobile production, automobile sales, and new - energy automobile sales, and their changes over multiple years are provided [50]. - **Brass Rod - Real Estate**: Data on the monthly operating rate of brass rods, 30 - city commercial housing transaction area, cumulative and monthly housing completion area, and their changes over multiple years are presented [53]. - **Inventory**: Data on China's electrolytic copper social inventory, SHFE copper inventory warrants, COMEX electrolytic copper inventory, LME electrolytic copper inventory, global refined copper inventory, and LME cancelled warrants and their proportions over multiple years are provided [58]. 3.3 Part 03: Capital Position - The CFTC non - commercial long - position ratio is 32%, showing a strengthening trend recently. The LME investment fund net long - position is 36768.23 lots, with a weekly decrease of 1814.84 lots [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market: Consider a strategy of buying on dips for stock index futures, and pay attention to index rotation. For Treasury bond futures, expect a volatile upward trend and focus on the odds of short-term bonds [9][10]. - Black commodities: May experience a volatile adjustment, with a mid-term outlook of overall volatility. For coal and coke, prices may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term. For ferroalloys, a mid-term bearish view remains. For soda ash and glass, consider taking short-term profits on soda ash shorts and adopt a wait-and-see approach for glass [12][13][14]. - Non-ferrous metals and new materials: For aluminum, follow the upward trend overseas but with limited domestic follow - up strength, so it is advisable to wait and see. For alumina, consider shorting on rallies. Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to fluctuate within a range [20][21][22]. - Agricultural products: For cotton, consider shorting on rallies. For sugar, the supply - demand situation is bearish, and consider short - term rolling operations or waiting and seeing. For eggs, operate with a volatile mindset. For apples, expect a volatile and upward trend. For corn, consider shorting the 01 contract or selling out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. For red dates, consider shorting on rallies. For live pigs, expect short - term price volatility [24][26][28]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil is expected to face a situation of oversupply and is prone to decline. Fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices. Plastics are expected to fluctuate weakly. Rubber is expected to fluctuate without a clear trend. Methanol is expected to fluctuate strongly. Caustic soda is expected to fluctuate. Asphalt is expected to trend strongly. Pulp is expected to be observed for port de - stocking and spot transactions. Logs are expected to have a weak - oscillating fundamental situation. Urea is expected to fluctuate. Synthetic rubber offers opportunities for short - term long positions on pullbacks [37][38][39]. Summary by Directory Macroeconomic News - Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and basic consensus was reached on resolving respective concerns [4]. - President Xi Jinping will attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in South Korea and conduct a state visit. The two sides are in close communication about a possible meeting between the Chinese and US presidents [4]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to bring about a new market space of about 10 trillion yuan in the next 5 years, and recreate China's high - tech industry in the next 10 years. It is also expected to generate over 5 trillion yuan in new investment demand for underground pipeline construction and renovation during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [4]. - US inflation data in September was lower than expected, and the market has fully priced in two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed within the year [4]. - Premier Li Qiang will attend a series of meetings in Malaysia [4]. - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen financial supervision, and promote high - level two - way financial opening [4]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will deepen comprehensive investment and financing reforms and strengthen the resilience and anti - risk ability of the capital market [4]. - Industry associations in logistics, non - ferrous metals, etc. have launched initiatives to resist "involution" - style competition [4]. - The US manufacturing and service PMIs in October showed an upward trend, while consumer confidence declined [4][5]. Stock Index Futures - A - shares opened higher and closed higher on Friday, with technology stocks leading the gains. The Sino - US talks may boost risk appetite, and the trading volume in the A - share market has rebounded. It is recommended to continue considering a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market is in a balanced and loose state. Affected by the Sino - US talks, risk appetite has increased, and bond prices have been suppressed. The central bank's net injection of 200 billion yuan through MLF in October is noted. It is expected that the monetary policy will be further loosened in the fourth quarter, and a volatile upward trend is expected for Treasury bond futures, with attention to the odds of short - term bonds [10]. Black Commodities - **Overall**: The black commodity market may experience a volatile adjustment, with a mid - term outlook of overall volatility. Policy expectations have cooled, and the market is focusing on real - world performance. The real demand for steel products in the fourth - quarter peak season has limited improvement, and there are concerns about negative feedback risks from supply and demand [12][13]. - **Coal and Coke**: Prices may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Supply is gradually recovering, but there are still expectations of "anti - involution", environmental protection restrictions, and safety inspections. The potential negative feedback risk from the steel industry may limit the upside of coal and coke prices [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: A mid - term bearish view remains. The industry's over - supply situation is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the market is under pressure from industrial hedging and market allocation funds [15]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, consider taking short - term profits on shorts. For glass, adopt a wait - and - see approach. The supply of soda ash has increased, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. The glass market is affected by the decline in the futures price, and the mid - stream inventory is relatively high [16][18]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum may follow the upward trend overseas, but domestic follow - up strength is limited, so it is advisable to wait and see. Alumina has a large supply surplus pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to strong demand and short - term supply approaching its peak [21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range, and polysilicon is expected to fluctuate narrowly within a range [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. Consider shorting on rallies. The international cotton market is affected by trade tariffs and the US government shutdown, while the domestic market is supported by cost but limited by supply pressure [24][25]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is facing a large supply surplus. Domestically, the supply is gradually increasing, and the price is under pressure from imports. Consider short - term rolling operations or waiting and seeing [26][27]. - **Eggs**: The egg - laying hen industry is in a "capacity reduction" process, and the futures market is showing strength. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the upside of the spot price may be limited. Operate with a volatile mindset [28][29]. - **Apples**: Expected to fluctuate strongly. The prices in the western producing areas are firm, and the late - maturing Fuji apples are gradually coming onto the market. Pay attention to the price changes, storage progress, and purchasing sentiment of merchants [30][31]. - **Corn**: Consider shorting the 01 contract or selling out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. The corn market is facing phased supply pressure, and pay attention to the new grain sales progress and the release rhythm of policy - supported wheat [32]. - **Red Dates**: Consider shorting on rallies. The market price is stable, but there is an expectation of a decline in the opening price [33]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply - demand situation is in a stalemate, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the end - of - month slaughter rhythm of large - scale enterprises [33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand may be suppressed. The supply - demand contradiction of oversupply is expected to become more prominent, and the price is prone to decline [37]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices will follow crude oil prices, and the short - term trading focus is on the supply concerns after the sanctions on Russia [38]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and are expected to fluctuate weakly. After a recent rebound, the upward momentum is insufficient [39]. - **Rubber**: Has no obvious trend and is mainly fluctuating. The cost is supported by rising upstream raw material prices, and pay attention to the raw material supply in the producing areas and macro - economic impacts [40]. - **Methanol**: The market is volatile due to the uncertainty of Iranian imports. Although the supply is large, there are supply - side disturbances. Consider a strategy of waiting for a rebound and then making a small - scale long - position allocation [41]. - **Caustic Soda**: Has a downward driving force due to weak spot prices but is supported by coal costs. Maintain a volatile mindset [42]. - **Asphalt**: The price trend is strong, and the focus is on the raw material concerns caused by the US military threat to Venezuela. The current demand is in the peak season, and the inventory reduction speed is normal [43]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Affected by the improvement in the macro - environment, it may be stronger in the short term. However, the fundamentals of PTA and ethylene glycol are still weak [45]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The short - term trend is strong, but the supply is abundant. The demand from the blending market may weaken, and pay attention to the development of Sino - US trade negotiations [46]. - **Paper Pulp**: The macro - sentiment has improved, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. Observe the port de - stocking and spot transactions, and consider establishing long positions on the 01 contract if the spot price is stable [46]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakly fluctuating, with stable downstream demand and cost support. Consider taking long positions on the 01 contract on dips [48]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand situation has improved, but the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. Maintain a volatile mindset [49]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: There are opportunities for short - term long positions on pullbacks, but the upward pressure is large, so be cautious about chasing the market [50].

Report Title - Weekly Report on Polypropylene Industry Chain of Zhongtai Futures, October 26, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The polypropylene market is under significant supply - demand pressure and will continue to fluctuate weakly [1] Summary by Directory 1. Recent Market Main Contradictions - Not provided 2. Polypropylene Supply - Demand Situation Supply - This week, due to more maintenance devices, the national polypropylene production decreased slightly from 80.10 million tons last week to 77.76 million tons, with a decrease of 2.34 million tons. In the next two weeks, as device maintenance decreases, production is likely to remain around 80 million tons. The maintenance loss this week was 21.70 million tons, an increase of 5.68 million tons compared to last week. The import and export volumes remained stable at 6.60 million tons for imports and 5.40 million tons for exports per week. In September, 2.9 billion tons were imported and 2.376 billion tons were exported [6]. - Many new polypropylene devices were put into production in 2024 and 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 4.25 billion tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 5.35 billion tons [20][21]. Demand - Downstream demand is currently not very good, and there is no accurate data for calculation [42]. Inventory - This week, there was a slight reduction in inventory. The total inventory decreased from 98.52 million tons last week to 92.53 million tons, a decrease of 5.99 million tons. It is expected to continue to reduce slightly next week. Upstream and mid - stream inventories also decreased slightly [6]. 3. Polypropylene Basis and Spread Basis - The basis overall showed a weakening trend. The East China basis decreased from - 50 last week to - 113 this week, the North China basis decreased from - 50 to - 140, and the South China basis decreased from - 50 to - 140. The basis opportunities are limited [8]. Spread - The inter - month spread fluctuated. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread decreased from - 52 to - 57. The spread between pellet and powder is too narrow, which has a certain supporting effect on pellet prices. The PP - 3MA spread on the 01 contract decreased from - 265 to - 154, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of shorting PP and going long on MA. The LL - PP spread on the 01 contract decreased from 323 to 307, and there are few short - term opportunities [8]. 4. Summary and Outlook Upper, Middle, and Lower Reaches Views - Upstream: Although currently in the peak maintenance period, the overall supply is still relatively sufficient, and the main idea is to actively sell goods. Despite low production profits, the upstream operating rate remains at a relatively high level without large - scale load reduction [10]. - Middle: The shipping situation has slightly deteriorated. After the rebound of the futures market, the shipping situation of spot - futures arbitrageurs has worsened [10]. - Lower: The replenishment willingness has decreased, and currently, the focus is on digesting previous inventories [10]. Strategy - Unilateral: Weakly fluctuating - Option: Selling call options strategy [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report PVC - This week, PVC production slightly decreased due to more-than-expected device overhauls. Next week, with some overhauled devices resuming production, production is expected to increase slightly. Export orders increased slightly this week, and this month's domestic apparent demand growth rate may be lower than expected. This week, the old sample of PVC inventory decreased by 28,000 tons, but it is expected to slightly accumulate next week. The upstream comprehensive profit slightly deteriorated, and the export profit also slightly worsened. The downstream demand is weak, and the overall domestic demand is not strong [6][9][10]. Caustic Soda - This week, the production of caustic soda decreased slightly due to more overhaul devices, but the overall production remained at a high level. It is expected to increase slightly next week. The apparent demand this week was around 724,900 tons, and it is estimated to be about 775,300 tons next week. The national inventory slightly accumulated this week, and it is estimated to accumulate next week based on static data, but may slightly decrease if production falls short of expectations. The comprehensive profit of Shandong chlor-alkali plants with external sales of liquid chlorine improved, while that of enterprises with supporting PVC slightly deteriorated [103][106]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs PVC 3.1 Spot Market - This week, the overall PVC price slightly decreased, while the caustic soda price remained stable, and the price of Shandong liquid chlorine rebounded. The prices of Shaanxi semi-coke increased, which may drive up the price of calcium carbide. The price of ethylene slightly strengthened, while the price of VCM decreased [7]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of PVC fluctuated weakly, and the monthly spread was in a state of shock. The 1 - 5 spread was in a state of shock, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased slightly [9]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Profit - The comprehensive profit of the PVC upstream slightly deteriorated, and the export profit also slightly worsened. Among them, the production profit of calcium carbide in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia decreased, the profit of northwest integrated PVC decreased, the profit of Shandong enterprises purchasing calcium carbide externally decreased significantly, and the profit of imported ethylene - based PVC decreased [9]. 3.4 Market Expectation - Next week, PVC production is expected to increase slightly, and the inventory may slightly accumulate. The downstream demand is expected to remain weak, and the overall market may remain in a weak state [6]. Caustic Soda 3.1 Spot Market - The price of Shandong liquid chlorine rebounded this week, while the price of Shandong raw salt remained stable. The price of caustic soda remained stable, and the comprehensive profit of Shandong chlor - alkali plants with external sales of liquid chlorine improved, while that of enterprises with supporting PVC slightly deteriorated [104][106]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of caustic soda weakened, and the monthly spread showed a state of shock. The 1 - 5 spread is recommended to be observed, focusing on the reverse arbitrage opportunity [106]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Profit - The comprehensive profit of Shandong chlor - alkali plants with external sales of liquid chlorine improved, while that of enterprises with supporting PVC slightly deteriorated. The export profit of caustic soda is expected to strengthen [106]. 3.4 Market Expectation - Next week, the production of caustic soda is expected to increase slightly, and the inventory may accumulate. The apparent demand is estimated to be around 775,300 tons. The market may remain relatively stable, but attention should be paid to the impact of production on inventory [103].