本周观点 本页数据来源:卓创资讯 中泰期货整理 | 利多因素 | 1、新季苹果质量同比或将偏差；2、新季苹果价格仍有高开预期 | | --- | --- | | 利空因素 | 1、新季苹果产量同比去年基本持平；2、库存苹果价格下跌；3、消费淡季苹果表现一般 | | | 山东产区：本周山东产区出库环比稍快，调货客商微增，但仍就是消费淡季，不少客商捉急出库，使得库内成交价格偏弱，好货价格较稳定。 | | 市 | 栖霞地区客商采购的80#一二级片红苹果的价格区间为3.8-4.8元/斤；果农80#一二级片红苹果的价格区间则为3.2-4.2元/斤，环比上周持平 | | 场 | （数据来源：卓创资讯）。 | | 基 | 西部产区：近期西部产区出库持续偏慢，主要原因是总库存较少，且部分冷库有水烂发生，主要以客商货走自存货为主。早熟苹果秦阳上市， | | 本 | 价格偏高。 | | 面 | | | 及 | 7月份，时令水果荔枝量少，即将退出市场，西瓜、桃子、葡萄等水果持续上市，价格稳定偏弱；早熟苹果秦阳高价上市；河北皇冠梨收购 | | 逻 | 活动持续进行，价格同比较低。销区市场，7 - 8月为库存苹果消费淡季，西瓜、早熟苹 ...

市场情绪带动反弹，但需谨防回调风险 中泰期货聚丙烯产业链周报 2025年7月20日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 聚丙烯基差价差 2 聚丙烯供需情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 1、聚丙烯综述 | | | 上 | 周 | 本 | 周 | 周环比 | | | 下 周 | 下下周 | | 综 述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国产量 | | 77 . | 01 | 77 . | 69 | 0 . | 69 | | 77 78 . | 77 15 . | 多多 ， | 本周产量符合预期 新增检修装置不 ， 未来两周装置检修减少 产 ...

全球需求可能增强，内外糖共振反弹 中泰期货白糖市场周度报告 联系电话： 0531-81678626 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证 券大厦15、16层 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 姓名：陈 乔 从业资格号：F0310227 交易咨询从业证书号 ：Z0015805 2 0 2 5 -7 -2 0 本周国内外糖价整体情况汇总 本周糖市重要数据展示、逻辑观点与策略 | | | 单位 | 上 期 | 本 期 | 环 比 | 数据解读 | 备 注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 重点数据 | 国产糖产销率 | % 万吨 | 65 22 . 386 26 | 72 69 . 304 83 | 11 45% . -21 08% | 产销率超预期提高 进入库存消化期 | 月频累计数据，6月数据 暂未更新 | | | 国产糖新增库 | | | | | | 月频累计数据，6月数据 | | | 存 | | . | . | . | | 暂未更新 | | | 仓单 | 张 | 22744 | 21477 | -5.57% | 现货库存少，仓单形 ...

目录 联系电话： 0531-81678626 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证 券大厦15、16层 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 姓名：陈 乔 从业资格号：F0310227 交易咨询从业证书号 ：Z0015805 2 025 -7 -20 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 库存&下游需求，郑棉震荡偏强也有压力 供需因子情况 一 市场行情概述 市场价格情况 | | | 上 周 | 本 周 | 环 比 | 下周预期 | 思 路 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活 跃):NYBOT2号棉花 | 67 42 . | 68 76 . | 1 99% . | 反弹承压 | | | | 国际棉花指 数:M:CNCottonM | 75 28 . | 76 38 . | 1 46% . | 反弹承压 | | | | 郑棉主力合约价格 | 13885 | 14270 | 2 77% . | 反弹承压 | 国际棉市整体走势仍在震荡 走低 来自需求忧虑影响 ， 。 国内相对偏强 因库存同比 ， 偏低 。 | | 相关 | 中国棉花价格指 数:C ...

LPG周报 2025年7月20日 姓名：肖海明 从业资格号：F3075626 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0018001 联系电话： 0531-81678601 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 期货交易咨询： PART 01 LPG行情回顾 需求负反馈显现，LPG相对原油走弱 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 主要观点 行情回顾 液化气商品量与港口到船量均有下降，尽管化工需求有增，但燃烧消费能力较差，市场产销率出现下 降，生产企业与港口库存均有增长。 下周来看，供应端延续下降态势，但传统淡季需求无乐观表现，不过考虑 到进口到船量减少，港口库存预期或有减量。液化气价格继续以 下跌为主。7月17日，国内民用均价4480元/吨，较上周四下跌19元/吨；醚后碳四均价为4714元/吨，较上周四下跌91元/吨。 逻辑与观点 本周LPG期货震荡下行，走势较原油偏弱，随着OPEC+的供给路径的基本确定，后续全球供给分歧减小。需求端，调油市场旺季将至，但 调油市场一直处于高开工状态，一旦预期落空，恐将很快形成负反馈，同时夏季本身也是传 ...

供需矛盾不大，甲醇偏弱震荡 中泰期货甲醇产业链周报 2025年7月20日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 逻辑观点 虽然近期商品情绪好转，淘汰落后产能等消息刺激市场情绪，但反弹主要集中在黑色及新能源相关行业， 甲醇目前上游高利润、下游低利润，不具备大幅上涨的基础，所以甲醇表现相对平淡。就甲醇自身而言，中 东地缘政治冲突降温，现货流动性不再紧张，现货价格下跌，甲醇转入偏弱震荡。 甲醇基本面变动不大，甲醇自身供应压力还是比较大，高利润刺激上游形成高供应，下游需求增长乏力， 甲醇整体偏弱。情绪消退以后，预计会进入偏弱震荡的格局，我们建议谨防回调风险。 单边策略：谨防回调风险 对冲策略：观望。 风险因素：地缘政治局势突变导致伊 ...

| 利多因素 | 1、调研区域部分产区减产；2、生理落果期，部分产区有高温预警；3、新季红枣质量或偏差 | | --- | --- | | 利空因素 | 1、库存高位，市场供应充裕；2、7月份消费淡季；3、调研结果显示，大概率正常偏小年 | | 市 | 7月中下旬新疆红枣进入生理落果期，枣农积极进行田园管理浇水、施肥，为避免后期高温干旱对坐果的影响，据调研得知，尚未出现集中 | | 场 | | | 基 | 落果现象，且近期产区气温较预报下降，降雨量增多温度较适宜坐果。近期关注产区坐果情况及天气变化（数据来源：Mysteel我的农产 | | 本 品 | ）。销区方面，河北崔尔庄到货特级价格参考9.70-10.50元/公斤，一级价格8.70元/公斤。广东如意坊参考到货特级10.80-11.00元/公 | | 面 | 斤，实际成交根据产地、质量不同价格不一。销区市场到货量仍然不多，红枣传统淡季终端实际消费表现一般，关注产区新季异动，预计短 | | 及 | 期内红枣现货价格仍将偏稳运行为主（数据来源：Mysteel我的农产品 ）。并且随着新疆货源不断向内地转移，市场供应充足，短期内供强 | | 逻 | | | 辑 | ...

天津港锰矿库存周报 (天津振鸿口径) 单位:吨 2025/7/18 本周库存 上周库存 出库 入库 变动 库存占比 品 3326577 406823 295743 3437658 -111081 ■加蓬 加蓬 52280 0 216132 268412 -52280 6. 50% 澳大利亚 澳大利亚 107440 88696 25256 44000 18744 3.23% ■南非 ■加纳 南非 2495357 2611350 172694 88000 -115993 75. 01% ■其他 加纳 -30702 128700 159402 30702 0 3. 87% 其他 11. 39% 378948 309798 125891 163743 69150 天津港锰矿出库:合计:万吨 天津港盆矿库存:合计:万吨 天津港猛矿入库:合计:万吨 900 100 ୧୧ 90 550 80 500 55 70 450 80 45 400 50 40 350 35 300 25 250 10 200 15 工学学习学习教学学习书记者 学习教学学校研究研究所 于香港市场的 France of the start of the ...

2025-07-18 纯碱玻璃周度报告汇总 研究员：于小栋 从业资格号：F3081787 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019360 目 录 C O N T E N T S 01 纯碱市场综述 02 月度供需 03 基差价差 04 纯碱市场价格 05 纯碱供应 06 纯碱需求 07 纯碱库存 08 仓单数量/有效预报 09 地产相关数据 01 玻璃市场综述 02 月度供需 03 基差价差 04 玻璃市场价格 05 玻璃供应 06 玻璃需求 07 玻璃库存 纯碱 玻璃 01 纯碱市场综述 目录 目录 周度市场综述 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 项 目 | 备 注 | 当 期 | 环 比 | 下期(E) | 下下期(E) | 思 路 | | | 总产量（万吨） | | 73.32 | 2.43 | 74.06 | 75.06 | | | 供 应 | 重质产量（万吨） | | 41.47 | 1.46 | 41.89 | 42.45 | 近期河南个别企业装置部分轮检，后续徐州计划检修；西南企业检修结束 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, different trends are predicted for various commodities, including trend空头, 震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and 趋势多头. Based on quantitative indicators, commodities are classified as 偏空, 震荡, or 偏多 [2][5]. - For different sectors such as macro - finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals and new materials, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, specific trading strategies and market outlooks are provided for each commodity. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Pay attention to moving average support, consider gradually taking profits or adopting a covered call strategy. The market may have a demand for profit - taking due to the release of short - term positive factors [11]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Pay attention to the liquidity of funds during the tax period, and the bond market may rebound [12]. Black Commodities Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - Market fluctuations are due to the release of second - quarter economic data and the current high profits of steel mills. In the short term, the market may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see or participate in cash - futures positive spreads [15][16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Affected by industry policy expectations, the black series has risen, and coking coal and coke continue to rebound. In the short term, they are expected to maintain the rebound trend, but in the medium term, they may be weak due to crude steel production cuts and macro - policies [16][17]. Ferroalloys - It is estimated that the supply gap of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will narrow significantly in July. It is recommended to hold short positions as the supply - demand structure weakens marginally [18]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash can be considered for short - selling when the market sentiment weakens; glass long - position holders at low levels can consider holding. The market has stabilized and risen today, following the strength of new energy varieties [19]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: It is recommended to short at high prices due to factors such as reduced risk appetite and increased inventory accumulation expectations. In the future, it can be bought at low prices during the peak consumption season. Alumina: It can be short - term long to repair the discount, but in the long term, there is an oversupply pressure [21]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, it is expected to be in a strong and volatile state due to supply disturbances and market sentiment [22]. Industrial Silicon - It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong operation, but there is no continuous upward driving force due to high supply elasticity [23]. Polysilicon - It is expected to maintain a strong and volatile operation, but due to the contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [24]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The cotton price is in a volatile rebound. It is recommended to hold long September and short January positions cautiously at high levels. The focus is on macro and supply - demand changes [27][28]. Sugar - The domestic sugar price is expected to be volatile due to low domestic inventory and expected increase in imported sugar [30][32]. Eggs - It is recommended to short on rebounds as the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival is large, and the futures price is over - valued [34]. Apples - It is recommended to conduct light - position positive spreads. The price may weaken in the short term, and attention should be paid to the output and price of early - maturing apples [35]. Corn - The futures price is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to wait and see. The price is affected by policy support and substitution from wheat [36]. Red Dates - It is recommended to lightly short. The market is currently in the physiological fruit - dropping period, and the price is expected to be stable in the short term [37]. Live Pigs - It is recommended to stop losses on short positions and wait and see in the short term. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [38][39]. Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - It is likely to enter a supply - exceeding - demand pattern in the long term. It is recommended to short at high prices [41]. Fuel Oil - The price is weaker than that of crude oil, and the fundamentals are gradually becoming looser [42]. Plastics - It is recommended to hold put options or be slightly short as the supply - demand situation is weak [43]. Rubber - It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. Short - buying on dips can be considered, and attention should be paid to the 15000 level pressure [44]. Methanol - The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to be short after a rebound or consider put options [45]. Caustic Soda - The futures price is expected to be volatile in the short term [46]. Asphalt - It follows the trend of crude oil, and its fundamentals are in the seasonal off - season with only rigid demand [47]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is not recommended to chase long positions, and short - selling on approaching pressure levels is recommended [48]. Pulp - The 09 contract is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to use strategies to increase income when holding spot goods [49]. Logs - Be cautious when going long, pay attention to the basis change, and consider hedging strategies [49]. Urea - It is recommended to buy on dips as the futures price has a callback demand and there is an upward driving force [49][50].