1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, under the background of the decline in interest rate cut and tariff expectations, the upward pace of copper prices may slow down, and the volatility remains high due to the game of the Fed Chairman candidate and geopolitical disturbances. In the medium - to - long - term, the logic of tight supply and demand supports the price. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of layout on dips and do a good job in risk control, with a strategy of buying on dips during the oscillatory operation [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Part 01: Weekly Review - **Supply - side Data (1.12 - 1.16)**: - Copper concentrate spot TC decreased from - 45.41 to - 46.53 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.47%. The spot trading activity of copper concentrate was cold, and the negotiation between Capstone Copper and striking miners failed, with the strike at Mantoverde Copper Mine continuing [8]. - The refined - scrap copper price difference decreased from 5312 to 4692 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.67%. The price of recycled copper raw materials was firm, and the price difference narrowed slightly. Recycled copper rod enterprises made bargain purchases when copper prices fell [8]. - The southern crude copper processing fee remained at 2000 yuan/ton. The production profit of recycled copper rods was less than that of anode plates, causing some enterprises to switch to anode plate production, which supported the crude copper processing fee [8]. - The operating rate of refined copper rods increased from 48% to 57%, an increase of 20.18%. It was mainly affected by the resumption of production after the holiday and the phased decline of copper prices, and downstream released a small amount of rigid - demand orders [8]. - The operating rate of recycled copper rods increased from 13% to 14%, an increase of 4.08%. Although copper prices declined, the actual transaction of recycled copper rods remained sluggish, and the increase in the operating rate was limited due to the uncertainty of fiscal and tax policies [8]. - The operating rate of wire and cable decreased from 57% to 56%, a decrease of 1.04%. The improvement of new orders was limited, some small enterprises started holidays in advance, and the market was in a wait - and - see state [8]. - **Inventory Data (1.12 - 1.16)**: - The available days of copper concentrate port inventory increased from 5.3 to 5.7 days, an increase of 7.81%. Global visible inventory increased, mainly from the accumulation of COMEX and domestic inventories [8]. - The social inventory of electrolytic copper increased from 27.38 to 32.09 million tons, an increase of 17.20%. High copper prices inhibited downstream purchasing and sales sentiment, and the market delivery volume was limited [8]. - The bonded area inventory increased from 7.88 to 8 million tons, an increase of 1.52%. The export window opened, and smelters' exports continued to increase [8]. - The total social and bonded inventory increased from 35.26 to 40.09 million tons, an increase of 13.70% [8]. - The SHFE copper inventory increased from 28.00 to 124.42 million tons, an increase of 344.36% [8]. - The LME copper inventory increased from 13.90 to 14.36 million tons, an increase of 3.31%. The COMEX - LME copper price difference decreased, but US copper was still difficult to flow out, and both COMEX and LME inventories entered the accumulation stage [8]. - The COMEX copper inventory increased from 517,999 to 542,914 short tons, an increase of 4.81% [8]. - The global total inventory increased from 93.57 to 98.58 million tons, an increase of 5.35% [8]. - **Profit Data (1.12 - 1.16)**: - The smelting comprehensive profit (spot) increased from - 4470 to - 2732 yuan/ton, an increase of 38.87%. The smelting loss was repaired due to the relatively weak performance of the external market and the strengthening of the exchange rate [8]. - The smelting comprehensive profit (long - term contract) increased from - 2213 to - 424 yuan/ton, an increase of 80.86% [8]. - The import profit decreased from - 1248 to - 1627 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.36% [8]. - **Macro and Fundamental Analysis**: - Macro: The US employment market remained resilient, strengthening the expectation that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged in the next few months. The change of the next Fed Chairman candidate cooled the interest rate cut expectation, the US dollar index strengthened, and geopolitical risks rose. Trump announced a 10% tariff on goods imported from multiple countries starting from February 1st, increasing market uncertainty and the risk of copper price fluctuations [11]. - Fundamental: Trump postponed the tariff on key minerals (copper is on the US key minerals list), which eased the tariff expectation, narrowed the price difference, and weakened the siphon effect. The pressure of domestic inventory accumulation increased, suppressing the upward momentum of copper prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the tight supply pattern of copper mines remained unchanged, supporting the central price of copper [11]. 3.2 Part 02: Copper Industry Chain - **Price, Spread, Cost, and Profit**: - The report presents historical data on SMM1 electrolytic copper premium/discount, Shanghai copper term structure, Shanghai copper main contract closing price, Shanghai - London ratio, LME3 closing price, LME (0 - 3) premium/discount, electrolytic copper comprehensive profit, spot copper import profit, feed - in processing spot export profit, and electrolytic copper comprehensive profit (long - term contract) [13][16][18][20][22]. - **Supply and Demand**: - **Supply**: It includes data on the production of copper concentrates in Chile and Peru, copper concentrate imports, scrap copper imports, crude copper imports, electrolytic copper production, and electrolytic copper imports [28][32][33]. - **Demand**: - **Copper Rod - Cable**: It shows data on the operating rate of refined copper rods, copper rod raw material inventory, copper rod finished product inventory ratio, wire and cable operating rate, and enameled wire operating rate [34]. - **Cable Terminal - Power Grid**: It provides data on cumulative and monthly power grid investment completion and power source investment completion [36]. - **Copper Tube - Air Conditioner**: It includes data on the operating rate of copper tubes, copper tube raw material inventory ratio, copper tube finished product inventory, household air - conditioner production, domestic sales, and export volume [45]. - **Copper Plate and Strip**: It shows data on the operating rate of copper plates and strips, copper plate and strip raw material inventory, and copper plate and strip raw material inventory ratio [47]. - **Terminal - Automobile**: It provides data on automobile production, new - energy automobile production, automobile sales, and new - energy automobile sales [53]. - **Brass Rod - Real Estate**: It includes data on the operating rate of brass rods, 30 - city commercial housing transaction area, cumulative and monthly housing completion area [57]. - **Copper Inventory**: It presents data on China's electrolytic copper social inventory, global refined copper inventory, LME cancelled warrants and their proportion, SHFE copper inventory warrants, COMEX electrolytic copper inventory, and LME electrolytic copper inventory [61]. 3.3 Part 03: Capital Positions - **Copper External Market Positions**: - On January 13th, the non - commercial long - position ratio of CFTC was 36.1%, showing a weakening trend recently [68]. - On January 9th, the net long position of LME investment funds was 49,251.04 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 9087.96 lots [69]. - **Shanghai Copper Capital Positions**: Last week, the total position of Shanghai copper decreased by 37,691 lots to 643,590 lots (one - side) [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro - financial**: For stock index futures, short - term operations should focus on volume and price, considering profit - taking; for treasury bond futures, adopt an oscillatory approach [14][15]. - **Black commodities**: Steel products may oscillate in the short term, and iron ore is relatively weak and should be shorted on rallies; coking coal and coke prices may oscillate and rise in the short term, but the upside is limited; for ferroalloys, manganese ore is strong in the short term, and silicon iron can be long - bought on dips in the medium - to - long term; for soda ash and glass, observe soda ash, and hold long positions in glass or take profits on rallies [16][18][19][20][21]. - **Non - ferrous metals and new materials**: For zinc, observe and keep existing short positions; for lead, observe; lithium carbonate may oscillate weakly; industrial silicon may continue to oscillate, and polysilicon may oscillate weakly [22][24][26][27]. - **Agricultural products**: Cotton may enter a short - term consolidation stage; sugar may oscillate and consolidate; for eggs, adopt an oscillatory approach for 02 - 03 contracts; apples may be strong; corn may oscillate within a range; jujubes may oscillate; for live pigs, short near - month contracts on rallies [31][33][36][39][40][41][42]. - **Energy and chemicals**: Crude oil may weaken; fuel oil prices will follow oil prices; plastics may oscillate; rubber may oscillate, and short - buy on dips; synthetic rubber may weaken in the short term; methanol may have a short - term correction, and long - buy far - month contracts on dips; caustic soda should be shorted; asphalt may oscillate within a range; the polyester industry chain may be under pressure, and short - sell in the short term and conduct positive spreads in the medium term; LPG may have short - term rebound momentum but limited long - term upside; pulp may oscillate; logs may oscillate; urea futures may be strong due to expectations [45][47][48][50][51][52][53][54][56][57][59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The State Council held a meeting to promote consumption and address issues such as arrears to enterprises and migrant workers' wages [7]. - The CSRC emphasized market stability and strengthened supervision [7]. - The central bank and the financial regulatory authority adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans [7]. - China and Canada reached a consensus on economic and trade cooperation, and Canada will give China an EV quota [8]. - The CSRC solicited opinions on the derivatives trading supervision regulations [8]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development proposed large - scale urban renewal investment [8]. - China developed a high - energy hydrogen ion implanter [9]. - Two rocket launches failed [9]. - Xidian University made achievements in radar antennas and chip heat dissipation [9][10]. - The US is about to withdraw from the WHO but owes dues [10]. - The US may impose high tariffs on South Korean memory chip manufacturers [10]. - The first shipment of Simandou iron ore arrived in China [10]. - Nvidia revised data on copper demand in data centers [11]. - Trump's statement affected the Fed chair speculation [12]. - The US sent a message to Iran [12]. - Barclays analysts predicted US corporate bond issuance [12]. - The SHFE adjusted trading limits for silver and nickel futures [12]. 3.2 Macro - financial 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - On Friday, the A - share market opened high and closed low. Short - term operations should focus on volume and price, considering profit - taking. If there is no further increase in volume and an inverted hammer line, the index may enter an adjustment phase [14]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The money market is balanced and loose, and bond yields are steep. Adopt an oscillatory approach, with the main focus on the money market, risk appetite, and the pace of allocation funds [15]. 3.3 Black Commodities 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - Macro - policies are slightly positive for the steel industry. Steel is in a de - stocking state, with acceptable orders in the short term. Real - estate and infrastructure demand is weak, while coil demand is good. Steel may oscillate, and iron ore is relatively weak [16][18]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices have rebounded due to supply disruptions. Coke has started the first price increase. In the short term, there is a chance for a price rebound, but the upside is limited due to the pressure on steel industry profits [19]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - Manganese ore is strong in the short term, but it is difficult to transfer profits downstream. Silicon iron has no significant fundamental changes, and it can be long - bought on dips in the medium - to - long term [20]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash supply is at a high level, and new capacity may be put into production. Observe soda ash. Glass may improve its supply - demand situation if production cuts are implemented. Hold long positions in glass or take profits on rallies [21]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Zinc - Domestic zinc inventories increased slightly. The price of zinc futures fell at night. It is recommended to observe and keep existing short positions [22][23]. 3.4.2 Lead - Lead inventories increased to a one - and - a - half - month high. The price of lead futures fell at night. It is recommended to observe [24][25]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - After a short - term increase driven by export expectations, the price of lithium carbonate may oscillate weakly due to weak vehicle demand and macro - sentiment adjustment [26]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon may continue to oscillate, with pressure on the upside. Polysilicon may oscillate weakly, waiting for the improvement plan on January 20 [27][29]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - Cotton supply is currently loose, but there are expectations of supply reduction in the long term. Zhengzhou cotton may enter a short - term consolidation stage [31][32]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The global sugar market has a surplus. Domestic sugar is in a season of both supply and demand growth. Zhengzhou sugar may oscillate and consolidate [33][34]. 3.5.3 Eggs - As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for eggs may peak and then weaken. Adopt an oscillatory approach for 02 - 03 contracts [36][37][38]. 3.5.4 Apples - Apple prices may be strong. The market is in a game between supply support and demand constraints. Observe the consumption during the Spring Festival stocking period [39]. 3.5.5 Corn - Corn prices may oscillate within a range. The key is the change in farmers' selling sentiment. Observe the port collection and the potential selling pressure in March [40]. 3.5.6 Jujubes - Jujube prices may oscillate. Observe the market performance during the consumption peak season [41][42]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs is slow, and the price may be strong in the short term but with limited upside. Short near - month contracts on rallies [42][43]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East support oil prices, but the supply surplus is still severe. Oil prices may weaken if the geopolitical situation eases [45]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices will follow oil prices, with the focus on the geopolitical situation in Iran. The supply - demand situation has slightly improved [47]. 3.6.3 Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure and weak demand, but upstream losses may support a small rebound. Adopt an oscillatory approach [48][49]. 3.6.4 Rubber - Rubber may oscillate, with cost support. Look for short - buying opportunities on dips [50]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber may weaken in the short term. Take profits on short positions on dips [51]. 3.6.6 Methanol - Methanol's supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. Long - buy far - month contracts on dips [52]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - Caustic soda production is at a high level, and the inventory is high. Adopt a short - selling approach [53]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - Asphalt prices may oscillate within a range, and the winter - storage period has temporarily stabilized [54][55]. 3.6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is under pressure due to weakening demand expectations. Short - sell in the short term and conduct positive spreads in the medium term [56]. 3.6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG prices may have short - term rebound momentum due to cost and demand support, but the long - term upside is limited. Lightly short - sell [57]. 3.6.11 Pulp - Pulp prices may oscillate due to weakening downstream demand and new warehouse receipts. Observe the international situation and macro factors [57][58]. 3.6.12 Logs - Log prices may oscillate, with the market in a weak supply - demand balance [59]. 3.6.13 Urea - Urea futures are supported by expectations, but the spot market is weakening. Observe the improvement of spot market liquidity [59].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 1 月 16 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 乙二醇 | 燃油 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 短纤 | 沪深300股指期货 | 沥青 | | | | PTA | 中证1000指数期货 | 原油 | | | | 瓶片 | 二债 | 液化石油气 | | | | 对二甲苯 | 五债 | 苹果 | | | | 三十债 | 中证500股指期货 | 甲醇 | | | | 烧碱 | 十债 | | | | | 工业硅 | 尿素 | | | | | 橡胶 | 锰硅 | | | | | 铁矿石 | 多晶硅 | | | | | 塑料 | 硅铁 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including macro - finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, offering trading strategies and outlooks for different futures products based on market conditions, policies, and supply - demand dynamics [16][19][25] Summary by Directory Macro News - The margin ratio for margin trading is raised from 80% to 100%, and the policy of tax refund for home - swapping is extended to the end of 2027. Several top - valued tech firms are preparing for IPOs. China's 2025 foreign trade grows 3.8% year - on - year. The central bank will conduct a 900 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation. Three departments regulate the new energy vehicle industry. The US imposes a 25% tariff on some semiconductor imports. Tesla changes its FSD business model. The Fed's economic situation improves, and there are different views on interest rate adjustments among Fed officials. US economic data shows mixed trends, and OPEC maintains its 2026 oil demand growth forecast and releases the 2027 forecast [9][10][11] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - On January 14, A - shares fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.31%. The increase in margin ratio signals a market cool - down. If the index fails to form a counter - enveloping bearish line with further volume, it may enter an adjustment phase. Short - term trading should focus on volume and price, and consider taking profits [16] Treasury Bond Futures - The money market has become looser. The adjustment of margin ratio and the 900 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation are announced. With the expected decline in interest - rate cut and the upward shift of the capital center, the strategy of flattening the yield curve is maintained [17] Black Commodities Steel and Ore - Policy - wise, there are no new demand - side policies, and supply - side policy interference is unlikely. Fundamentally, steel demand shows off - season pressure, but short - term contradictions are not significant. Long - term downstream demand for steel is weak, except for some consumption of coil products. Iron ore supply shows a port inventory increase, and demand is supported. Steel and ore are expected to fluctuate in the short term [19][20] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal futures prices rebound due to supply disturbances. In the short term, double - coking prices may fluctuate upwards, but the potential negative feedback from weak steel demand and the limited profit of the steel industry may restrict the upward space [22] Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash prices fluctuate with the market atmosphere. Supply is at a high level, and new capacity progress is awaited. It is advisable to wait and see. Glass prices are recommended to be held by bulls, and attention should be paid to the implementation of cold - repair [23] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - As of January 12, domestic zinc inventories decrease. Zinc prices are supported by external markets and inventory trends. However, downstream procurement is weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short at high prices [25][26] Lead - As of January 12, lead inventories increase. Before delivery, inventories are expected to rise further. After delivery, supply pressure will increase, and price upward space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see [27][28] Lithium Carbonate - Driven by the expectation of battery export rush, demand is better than expected. In the short term, it will operate in a high - level shock. Attention should be paid to the risk of sharp fluctuations [29] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, lacking upward drivers. Polysilicon will fluctuate weakly, waiting for the rectification measures on January 20. For industrial silicon, downstream demand has short - term support, but long - term supply pressure remains. For polysilicon, the "anti - involution" policy is being corrected, and the market is in a vacuum period of policy and industry game [30][31] Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton is in a short - term consolidation state due to the contradiction between short - term supply surplus and long - term supply contraction expectations, as well as pre - holiday restocking and declining production. Short - term trading is recommended [32][33] Sugar - Domestic sugar is in a season of both supply and demand growth, with prices fluctuating. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - price range [34][35] Eggs - The current inventory of laying hens is high. After the Spring Festival, egg prices may weaken. However, if the price increase is due to supply reduction, the situation needs to be re - evaluated [37] Apples - The apple market is in a game between supply support and demand restraint. Prices are likely to fluctuate within a range, and high - quality products will remain firm. The market may turn stronger during the Spring Festival [38][39] Corn - The corn market has large differences. Spot prices are stable to strong, and futures prices are weak. The price may fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the release of grain sales in March [40] Red Dates - The red date market is in a consumption peak season, but the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sales rhythm and buyer sentiment [41] Pigs - In the first half of January, pig consumption lacks a significant boost. From the middle of the month, the supply may increase, and the spot price is likely to decline. Futures contracts should be shorted at high prices [42] Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - Tensions in Iran continue to heat up, and the market is worried about supply disruptions. Although there is a supply surplus, geopolitical factors support oil prices in the short term [44] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices follow crude oil prices, with marginal improvement in supply and demand. The short - term focus is on the geopolitical situation in the US and Russia [46] Plastics - Polyolefins have large supply pressure and weak demand, but upstream losses may support a small - scale rebound. An oscillatory approach is recommended [47] Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate. There is support from overseas raw material prices, and attention should be paid to short - term buying opportunities on dips [47] Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber prices rise due to cost support. Caution is needed when chasing high prices, and it is advisable to wait and see if there is no position [48][49] Methanol - The supply - demand situation of methanol is improving. Although there is a risk of inventory accumulation, the long - term outlook is positive. Long - term contracts can be considered for a slightly long - biased allocation [50] Caustic Soda - The adjustment of export tax - refund policy has a negative impact on caustic soda futures. Spot prices are weak, and futures prices are under pressure [51] Asphalt - Asphalt prices are expected to fluctuate more due to raw material factors. The future focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [52] Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is cost - driven in the short term. Attention can be paid to the positive spread opportunities between May and September contracts of PX and PTA [53] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Affected by the geopolitical conflict in Iran, LPG prices rise. Supported by high costs and demand, it has some rebound momentum. It is recommended to wait and see [54] Urea - Urea futures drive the spot market. Spot prices are stable to rising, and futures prices are rising unilaterally. Attention is paid to the improvement of spot market liquidity [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index may enter an adjustment phase if there is no further increase in volume to form a reverse enveloping negative line in the near future [12][13]. - The strategy for treasury bond futures is to flatten the yield curve [14]. - Steel and ore are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [16]. - Double - coke prices may fluctuate and rise in the short term, but the rebound space may be limited [17][18]. - For manganese silicon, there is a contradiction between cost support and oversupply pressure in the short term; for silicon iron, it is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - long term [19]. - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see; for glass, hold long positions or partially cash in on rallies [20]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [22]. - Industrial silicon is expected to continue to fluctuate, with no clear upward drive [23]. - For polycrystalline silicon, be cautious when holding positions due to strict position limits [24][25]. - Zhengzhou cotton is in a short - term decline and consolidation state, and it is advisable to buy on dips [27]. - Zhengzhou sugar is in a state of shock and consolidation, and short - term trading in the low - level range is recommended [29]. - For eggs, the 02 and 03 contracts are expected to have limited upside space, but be vigilant about supply - side changes [32]. - Apple futures may run strongly, and the price is likely to fluctuate within a range [35]. - Corn futures will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and focus on the replenishment efforts at the grass - roots level this month [36]. - Red dates are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and pay attention to the sales area's sales rhythm [38]. - For live pigs, the spot price is likely to fluctuate and decline in the middle of January, and the futures main contract should be short - biased on rallies [39]. - Crude oil prices still have support in the short term due to the Iranian issue [39]. - Fuel oil prices will follow oil prices, and the focus is on the Iranian situation [41]. - Polyolefins are expected to be weak from a supply - demand perspective, and it is advisable to adopt a shock - trading mindset [42]. - Rubber is expected to fluctuate, and pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [44]. - For synthetic rubber, short - term short positions should be closed, and it is advisable to wait and see [45]. - For methanol, the far - month contracts can be gradually considered for a slightly long - biased allocation [46]. - Caustic soda futures are affected negatively in the current environment [46]. - Asphalt prices are expected to have a larger fluctuation range in the short term, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [47]. - For the polyester industry chain, consider the positive spread opportunities between PX and PTA from May to September [49]. - LPG still has some rebound momentum, and it is advisable to wait and see without chasing the rise [50]. - For pulp, the disk faces hedging pressure, but the downside space is limited [51]. - Logs are expected to fluctuate, and the fundamentals are in a weak balance [52]. - Urea futures show a weak shock trend, and the long positions are actively reducing [53]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - The US - Iran situation is tense. Trump cancelled talks with Iranian officials, and the US State Department asked citizens to leave Iran. The US military is considering options, but the White House prefers diplomacy [8]. - The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell continues to ferment. Trump will announce the next Fed Chairman in the coming weeks [8]. - Trump threatens to impose a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran. China will safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. The G7 plans to reduce rare - earth imports from China, and China will maintain the stability of the global supply chain [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a manufacturing enterprise symposium, emphasizing industry self - discipline [9]. - China will continue to impose anti - dumping duties on imported solar - grade polycrystalline silicon from the US and South Korea for 5 years [9]. - A Chinese research team made progress in high - performance sodium - ion battery cathode materials [9]. - The US relaxed regulations on NVIDIA's H200 chip exports to China [9]. - SK Hynix will invest about $12.9 billion to build an advanced chip packaging factory in South Korea [9]. - The US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining flat compared with the previous value. The market expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in January 2026 with a probability of 95% [10]. - The President of the St. Louis Fed believes there is little reason to further ease monetary policy in the short term [10]. - Japanese government bonds were sold off due to concerns about fiscal deterioration [10]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fees for lithium carbonate futures contracts [10]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - On January 13, the A - share market fluctuated downward, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.64% to 4138.76 points, ending a 17 - day winning streak. The trading volume reached 3.7 trillion yuan, setting a new high [12]. - If the stock index fails to form a reverse enveloping negative line with increased volume, it may enter an adjustment phase [13]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The strategy is to flatten the yield curve. The capital margin is converging, and the capital interest rate is rising slightly. The 600 billion yuan repurchase has not been renewed [14]. 3.3 Black 3.3.1 Steel and Ore - Policy: There are no new policies on the demand side, and the supply - side policy interference is low [16]. - Fundamentals: The fundamentals of steel are weakening marginally, with seasonal demand pressure. The downstream demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is good. The supply is stable, and the inventory is increasing [16]. - Valuation: The futures prices of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal are fluctuating, and the disk valuation is equivalent to the long - process cost [16]. - Trend: Steel and ore are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [16]. 3.3.2 Coal and Coke - Policy: The "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection" policies restrict coal production [18]. - Fundamentals: Coal supply is disturbed, and the coke price has been reduced four times. The iron - water output is increasing slightly [18]. - Trend: Double - coke prices may fluctuate and rise in the short term, but the rebound space is limited [18]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - Manganese ore: The short - term performance is strong, but the profit transfer is difficult. Manganese silicon faces a contradiction between cost support and supply - demand surplus [19]. - Ferrosilicon: The fundamentals are stable, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - long term [19]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash: The supply is at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new capacity [20]. - Glass: It is advisable to hold long positions or partially cash in on rallies. Pay attention to the cold - repair of production lines [20]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Lithium Carbonate - Demand is expected to be better than the previous neutral expectation, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but beware of high - price fluctuations [22]. 3.4.2 Industrial Silicon - The previous over - supply expectation needs time to verify. The disk is expected to fluctuate, and there is no clear upward drive [23]. 3.4.3 Polycrystalline Silicon - Due to strict position limits, the disk lacks industrial long positions to repair the basis. Be cautious when holding positions [24][25]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - There is a short - term decline and consolidation. The USDA report is positive, but the domestic supply is loose in the short term. Pay attention to the pre - holiday replenishment and the next target - price subsidy policy [27][28]. 3.5.2 Sugar - It is in a state of shock and consolidation. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, but the domestic market has supply and demand support [29][30]. 3.5.3 Eggs - The 02 and 03 contracts are expected to have limited upside space. The current price increase may be due to supply reduction or increased consumption, which needs further observation [32][34]. 3.5.4 Apples - The disk may run strongly. The market is in a game between supply support and demand constraints. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the performance during the Spring Festival replenishment period is crucial [35]. 3.5.5 Corn - The short - term disk will fluctuate strongly. The current price increase reflects the short - term supply shortage. Pay attention to the grass - roots replenishment in January [36]. 3.5.6 Red Dates - They are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. Pay attention to the sales rhythm in the sales area and the mentality of purchasers [37][38]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The spot price is expected to fluctuate and decline in the middle of January. The futures main contract should be short - biased on rallies [39]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - The Iranian situation is tense, and the supply is in surplus. The short - term oil price still has support [39]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The price follows oil prices, and the focus is on the Iranian situation. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is high [41]. 3.6.3 Polyolefins - The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to adopt a shock - trading mindset, and beware of callbacks [42]. 3.6.4 Rubber - It is expected to fluctuate. The cost is supported, and there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction. Pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [44]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Short - term short positions should be closed, and it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the raw - material price and downstream demand [45]. 3.6.6 Methanol - The far - month contracts can be gradually considered for a slightly long - biased allocation. Pay attention to the inventory at the port [46]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - It is affected negatively by the current environment. The spot market is weak, and the futures price shows a downward trend [46]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - The price is expected to have a larger fluctuation range in the short term. The focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [47]. 3.6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - Consider the positive spread opportunities between PX and PTA from May to September. The industry chain is affected by oil prices and demand [49]. 3.6.10 LPG - It still has some rebound momentum, and it is advisable to wait and see without chasing the rise. The supply and demand are affected by the Iranian situation and the season [50]. 3.6.11 Pulp - The disk faces hedging pressure, but the downside space is limited due to the support of the spot market and the strong foreign - market price [51]. 3.6.12 Logs - They are expected to fluctuate, and the fundamentals are in a weak balance. The domestic spot market is stable [52]. 3.6.13 Urea - The futures show a weak shock trend, and the long positions are actively reducing. The spot market is stable, but the new orders are weak [53].

天津港锰矿库存周报 (天津振鸿口径) 单位:吨 本周库存 上周库存 出库 入库 库存占比 2026-1-9 变动 总 2934578 3169783 400431 -235205 635636 ■加蓬 加蓬 49055 6. 96% 204355 204400 49100 -45 ■澳大利亚 澳大利亚 273732 32617 306349 0 0 10. 44% ■南非 ■加纳 南非 234112 1915041 2125418 271408 -210377 65. 26% ■其他 加纳 13500 -13500 11. 60% 340369 353869 0 其他 212364 301628 117264 5.74% 168464 -43900 天津港振鸿锰矿出库:合计:万吨 天津港振鸿锰矿库存:合计:万吨 天津港振鸿锰矿入库:合计:万吨 600. 00 120. 00 80.00 550. 00 500. 00 450. 00 400. 00 350. 00 300. 00 250. 00 200. 00 r = 2 = 2 = 2 = 1 = 2023 2024 2025 - 2026 100. 00 ...

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Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Weekly Report - Report Date: January 12, 2026 - Company: Zhongtai Futures Co., Ltd. - Analyst: Gao Ping - Analyst Qualification Number: F3002581 - Transaction Consultation License Number: Z0012806 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The current logic is that the trading sentiment in the spot market has weakened. With the successive registration of new warehouse receipts and the price reaching the hedging point for European softwood pulp multiple times, the futures market is facing pressure from hedging positions. - On the basis of stable fundamentals, the strong price support from the forward overseas market still provides support for domestic pulp spot and forward prices, limiting the downside space of the futures market. - In the long - term, the overseas shipments in January are still decreasing, and there is no significant pressure on short - term arrivals. After the simultaneous increase in futures and spot prices, the spot trading has slightly weakened. As the futures price rises and reaches the risk - free hedging position for some European and Canadian softwood pulp again, and with the successive registration of new warehouse receipts, upward pressure may emerge. Although the fundamentals have improved, there are no actual factors to drive up the price. - Pulp sentiment remains for now, and it may maintain a high - level volatile pattern in the short term. However, if contradictions in the real - world market gradually accumulate (such as the port inventory turning to accumulation, new warehouse receipts being registered successively, and spot trading weakening) or the macro - sentiment weakens, pulp may shift to a weakly volatile trend. - Strategy recommendation: The commodity sector is improving, and there are still risks in the energy and chemical market due to international situations and macro - factors. It is recommended to wait and see during the day. If the spot price is stable and one holds deliverable forward goods at a suitable cost, one can choose to sell out - of - the - money call options on the 05 contract at high prices to meet the risk - free hedging needs at high levels [16]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1 Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - Domestic production: The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp remained basically stable this week. The price of domestic hardwood pulp increased by 150 yuan/ton, but the spot price was stable, and the market had sufficient spot supply. - Import: In November 2025, China's pulp imports were 324.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.0% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. The cumulative annual imports were 3292.5 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.8%. The shipments of softwood and hardwood pulp from pulp - producing countries to China rebounded in November, and it is estimated that the domestic arrivals in January will increase month - on - month [7]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - Demand: Downstream production was stable, with no obvious demand - side drivers. The maintenance equipment for coated paper has resumed normal production, and the production of coated paper has increased slightly. - Inventory: As the spot price became firmer and the downstream replenishment came to an end with reduced willingness, the port inventory gradually shifted to accumulation. Under the high price of far - month contracts, there were hedging opportunities for some low - priced European softwood pulp, and the warehouse receipts in the contracts have increased successively. The downstream finished - product inventory is in a state of shock adjustment [9]. 1.3 Price and Spread - Price: The overseas quotation increased, the spot price of hardwood pulp remained firm with relatively tight market liquidity, and the futures price was also firm. The price of softwood pulp was firm, but the buying demand was weak, and the demand was average. After the large - scale replenishment by major manufacturers ended, the spot trading weakened slightly, but the price remained relatively firm. The trading sentiment in the spot market weakened, and with the successive registration of new warehouse receipts and the price reaching the hedging point for European softwood pulp multiple times, the futures market was facing pressure from hedging positions. The finished - product price remained stable, and there were no price increase notices. - Spread: The spread between softwood and hardwood pulp continued to shrink to a relatively low level, which may drive the digestion of old softwood pulp. The far - month futures price continued to strengthen, and the spread shrank. The futures price corrected, the spot price remained stable, and the basis strengthened [11]. 1.4 Cost and Profit - Cost: The cost of domestic pulp remained stable, and the cost of imported pulp increased due to the increase in overseas prices. - Profit: The profit of domestic pulp is expected to rise slightly. The profit of imported pulp is expected to be further compressed due to the increase in overseas prices. The raw material cost of paper continued to rise. Although the finished - product price also increased, the profit was still affected [13]. Part 2 Pulp Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly pulp balance sheet from January 2025 to January 2026, including data on imports, domestic production, total supply, pulp consumption, factory inventory, apparent demand, and inventory (including port inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and total inventory) [19]. Part 3 Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The global pulp shipment volume is analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the text. - Demand and Inventory: The apparent demand and inventory in Europe are analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the text. 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Analyzes various aspects of supply, including pulp imports, softwood pulp imports, hardwood pulp imports, softwood pulp imports by country, imports of chemimechanical pulp and unbleached pulp, and imports of softwood and hardwood chips, and provides historical data from 2022 - 2025 [33][37][40]. - Demand: Analyzes pulp apparent demand and downstream finished - product paper (including toilet paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard), and provides information on the planned production capacity of some paper mills [73][88]. - Inventory: Analyzes pulp total inventory, including the sum of port inventory and warehouse receipt inventory [117]. Part 4 Cost and Profit - Analyzes the import cost and profit of pulp and the production cost and profit of domestic pulp [125][128]. Part 5 Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - Analyzes pulp overseas quotations, spot price seasonality, spot spread seasonality, basis, and the seasonal chart and inter - monthly spread of the SP main contract [132][137][141]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market showed a strong upward trend on Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 16 consecutive positive days and breaking through the 4100-point mark. The market turnover exceeded 3.1 trillion yuan, indicating a high level of market activity. The overall economic climate in China is improving, with the CPI and PPI showing positive trends, and the PMI indices rising above the expansion range [15]. - Different commodity futures have various trends and investment suggestions. For example, in the black sector, it is expected to be in a short - term shock and medium - long - term bottom - building state; in the agricultural product sector, different products such as cotton, sugar, and eggs have their own supply - demand situations and price trends [18][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The State Council's Anti - monopoly and Anti - unfair Competition Committee Office will investigate and evaluate the market competition in the food delivery platform service industry. Meituan, Taobao Flash Delivery, and JD Delivery will cooperate actively [8]. - China declared multiple satellite constellation plans to the ITU in the last week of 2025, with a total scale of over 200,000 satellites [8]. - The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in January 2026 is completely dashed. The US non - farm payrolls data in December 2025 was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased, reducing the possibility of an interest rate cut [8]. - The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of fiscal and financial policies to promote domestic demand, including loan discount policies and risk - sharing mechanisms [9]. - In December 2025, China's CPI and core CPI increased year - on - year, and the PPI decline narrowed. The CPI and PPI both increased month - on - month [9]. - The regulatory authorities have issued new policy guidance on real estate financing, allowing loans for projects on the "white list" to be extended for up to 5 years [9]. - China has made a major breakthrough in the extraction and separation technology of salt lake lithium resources, improving the lithium ion recovery rate and reducing costs and energy consumption [9]. - DeepSeek plans to launch a new flagship AI model V4 around the Chinese New Year in mid - February, which shows better performance in code generation than existing mainstream models [10]. - The AGI - Next Frontier Summit believes that the competition in large models has shifted from the "Chat" to the "Agent" stage [10]. - Fund companies and sales institutions have received a notice on the implementation of regulations on the sales fees of publicly offered securities investment funds, with three key points attracting attention [10]. - The price of storage chips has skyrocketed, and tech giants are competing for DRAM supplies. The price of 8GB DDR4 memory has increased by more than 5 times in a year [11]. - The US Supreme Court has not made a ruling on Trump's tariffs, and the next announcement is on January 14. The government is prepared to re - implement tariffs if necessary [11]. - Trump has cancelled the second wave of military strikes against Venezuela, maintained the deployment of US ships, and plans to buy $200 billion in mortgage - backed securities to lower mortgage rates [11]. - Trump has called for setting a 10% cap on credit card interest rates for one year starting from January 20, but the feasibility is uncertain [12]. - Trump discussed with oil company executives how to rebuild Venezuela's oil industry and announced that the US will start refining and selling up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil [12]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to consider following the trend, but be cautious about chasing highs due to the recent large short - term gains. The A - share market has been rising strongly, and the economic climate is improving, with the stock index breaking through the previous shock platform [14][15]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The strategy is to flatten the yield curve. The money market is balanced, and the bond market sentiment has declined. The central bank's monetary policy shows a retreat trend, and fiscal subsidy policies for consumption have been announced [16]. 3.3 Black Sector 3.3.1 Spiral Steel Rebar and Iron Ore - From a policy perspective, there is no new demand - side policy, and the supply - side policy interference for the steel industry is low, which is relatively negative for finished products and steel mill profits. - Fundamentally, the steel demand is under seasonal pressure, and the supply is relatively stable with low profits. The inventory has started to accumulate, and in the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate and be in a medium - long - term bottom - building state [18]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate and rise in the short term. The supply side of coal has disturbances, and the downstream demand support has declined. The potential negative feedback risk still restricts the price increase, and the rebound space may be limited [20]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are still bearish, but the cost side may have a phased positive impact. It is recommended to control positions, hold short positions in silicomanganese at high levels, and temporarily observe ferrosilicon [21]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply is at a high level, and attention should be paid to new production capacity and cost - side expectations. - For glass, a long - holding strategy or partial profit - taking at high prices can be considered. The market sentiment has been boosted, and attention should be paid to cold repair and downstream purchasing sentiment [22]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Shanghai Zinc - Domestic zinc inventories are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase slightly in January. The demand is still resilient but is expected to weaken compared to December. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short at high prices [24][25]. 3.4.2 Shanghai Lead - The fundamentals of lead are weak, with low downstream demand. Although the lead price may rebound before delivery, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation dragging down the price. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [26]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals show signs of weakening, but the production resumption expectation is reduced due to mine disruptions. The long - term demand is positive, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [27]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon - The downstream demand has phased policy - driven support for export rush. The previous oversupply expectation needs time to verify the turn, and the disk is expected to fluctuate strongly but is still under upward pressure [28]. 3.4.5 Polysilicon - It is possible to try to buy at low prices with cautious positions. The market is worried about changes in the industrial pattern after the regulatory meeting, and the export tax - rebate cancellation policy may drive an export rush in the first quarter [28][29]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The contradiction between pre - festival restocking and declining开工 leads to a short - term downward trend. Attention should be paid to the USDA report and the next target price subsidy policy [32][33]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The domestic sugar market is in a season of both strong supply and demand. The price is under pressure but also supported, and it is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - price range. The global sugar market still faces an oversupply situation [34][35]. 3.5.3 Eggs - The 02 - 03 contracts of eggs are currently at a discount to the spot price and are driven by the short - term strength of the spot market. However, as the inventory of laying hens is still high and the post - holiday demand may decline, the upside space is limited. The futures contracts are in a near - strong and far - weak contango pattern [36]. 3.5.4 Apples - The supply side has the characteristics of "less quantity and poor quality" and low inventory, while the demand side is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and high - quality products may remain stable. The market may show a strong trend if the demand decline is controlled during the Spring Festival [37]. 3.5.5 Corn - The short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The key to the price trend lies in the change of farmers' selling sentiment. Although there are some negative factors, the probability of a "panic selling" before the Spring Festival is low. Attention should be paid to the selling situation in March [38]. 3.5.6 Red Dates - The current market is in an oversupply situation, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sales situation during the consumption peak season [39]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The consumption in the first half of January lacks significant improvement. It is expected that large - scale enterprises will resume slaughter in the middle of the month, and the spot price may decline. The main futures contract should be shorted at high prices [39][40]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Venezuela is expected to resume oil exports, but the geopolitical situation in Iran has heated up again, bringing support to oil prices. Although the fundamentals show an oversupply situation, the geopolitical premium still exists [43]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is mainly driven by geopolitical and macro factors and will follow the trend of crude oil prices. The supply - demand relationship has improved marginally, and the focus is on the Iranian situation and the potential substitution role of fuel oil [44]. 3.6.3 Plastics - The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the downstream demand is weak. Although the upstream production enterprises are suffering losses, which may provide some support, there is no strong upward - driving force. It is recommended to adopt a shock - trading strategy and beware of回调 risks [44][45]. 3.6.4 Rubber - The short - term international macro environment and trading system may increase capital participation, but the lack of obvious supply - demand contradictions may limit the upward space. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - long opportunities during回调 can be considered [45]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - The short - term sentiment fluctuates significantly. It is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions. The price is under pressure due to the decline of downstream products and poor high - price transactions [46][47]. 3.6.6 Methanol - The current supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly, but the inventory is still relatively high, and there is a possibility of further accumulation at the end of the month. In the long term, the fundamentals are improving, and long positions in far - month contracts can be gradually considered [48]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market follows the general trend of the commodity futures market and has weak fundamentals. The cost has decreased, and the futures price should be treated with a wide - range shock strategy [49]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - The short - term price fluctuation of asphalt may increase due to raw material factors. The future focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The price of asphalt has stabilized after the increase [49][50]. 3.6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - In the short term, the price will fluctuate with the cost. PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads can be considered. The supply - demand relationship of each product in the polyester chain shows different trends, and the overall rebound height is restricted by the terminal negative feedback [51]. 3.6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Affected by the Iranian geopolitical conflict, the price of LPG has increased. The import cost provides support, and the demand is in the peak season. It still has some rebound momentum, but it is recommended to wait and see and not chase the rise [52][53]. 3.6.11 Pulp - The spot market trading sentiment is weakening, and the disk faces hedging pressure. However, the fundamentals are stable, and the external market price is strong, providing support for the domestic price. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. 3.6.12 Logs - The fundamentals are weakly bearish, and the spot price has temporarily stabilized. The market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the disk is expected to fluctuate [55]. 3.6.13 Urea - The coal price has increased, and the spot market trading of urea has weakened. After the price reduction, the trading of some factories is acceptable. The futures price maintains a shock trend [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, the report provides trend judgments for various futures products including trend空头, 震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and 趋势多头 [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, it also gives trend judgments of偏空, 震荡, and 偏多 for different products [4]. - In the macro - financial sector, for stock index futures, it is recommended to consider following the trend; for treasury bond futures, the strategy is to flatten the yield curve [11][12]. - In the black sector, steel products may have a mid - term oscillating trend, and it is suggested to hold short positions in iron ore at high levels or short at highs; for coking coal and coke, the prices may oscillate and rise in the short - term; for ferroalloys, silicon iron may fluctuate after a sharp decline, and manganese silicon is bearish in the medium - term; for soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see, while for glass, it is recommended to hold long positions or partially realize profits at high levels [14][16][17][18]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, lithium carbonate prices may oscillate strongly in the short - term; industrial silicon is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to consider shorting at highs or selling out - of - the - money call options; for polysilicon, it is necessary to operate cautiously as the downward adjustment of premium may not be over [20][21][22]. - In the agricultural products sector, cotton may decline in the short - term; sugar is in a season of both supply and demand, and it is recommended to trade in the low - value range; for eggs, the near - term contracts have limited upside, while the far - term contracts in the second quarter are supported by expectations; apples may be strong on the futures market; corn may oscillate strongly in the short - term; jujubes are expected to oscillate; for live pigs, the spot price may decline in the middle and late January, and it is advisable to be bearish on the futures main contract at high levels [24][26][28][30][32][34]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices may oscillate without new events; fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices; polyolefins are expected to be weak in the supply - demand aspect and should be treated with an oscillating view; rubber may oscillate, and it is advisable to look for short - term long opportunities on pullbacks; methanol's fundamentals are improving in the long - term, and long positions in far - month contracts can be considered gradually; caustic soda futures should be treated with a wide - range oscillating view; asphalt prices may fluctuate more greatly in the short - term, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game; for the polyester industry chain, it is advisable to consider the positive spread between May and September contracts of PX and PTA; for liquefied petroleum gas, there is support but limited upward space; pulp is advisable to wait and see; logs are expected to oscillate; urea futures may oscillate weakly [36][37][38][39][40][41][43][44][45][46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - Two major energy central enterprises, Sinopec Group and China National Aviation Fuel Group, are officially reorganized, aiming to reduce costs and promote high - quality development of the industrial chain [6]. - Gold has become the world's largest reserve asset for the first time in 30 years, with the value of overseas official gold reserves reaching $3.93 trillion, exceeding that of US Treasury bonds [6]. - US President Trump agrees to promote a bill to strengthen sanctions against Russia. China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning states that normal Sino - Russian economic and trade cooperation should not be interfered with [6]. - Guangzhou formulates a plan to build an advanced manufacturing powerhouse, accelerating the cultivation of strategic leading industries and emerging pillar industries [6]. - The market supervision department约谈 the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and six polysilicon leading enterprises to prevent monopoly [7]. - Four ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology call for regulating the power and energy storage battery industry to prevent over - capacity [7]. - TSMC raises the price of 3nm chips and suspends new 3nm projects due to full orders [7]. - Trump expects the US to "manage" Venezuela and increase the military budget from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion in fiscal year 2027 [7]. - The US Supreme Court will rule on the legality of Trump's tariff policy. If the Trump administration loses, importers may demand a refund of about $150 billion in tariffs [8]. - The US Treasury Secretary hopes to lower interest rates, and a Fed governor expects a 150 - basis - point rate cut in 2026, which may create about one million jobs without causing inflation [8]. - The US Congressional Budget Office predicts that the US GDP growth rate will accelerate to 2.2% in 2026, with a PCE inflation rate of 2.7% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2028, and the unemployment rate will drop to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2028, and the Fed interest rate will drop to 3.4% in Q4 2026 [8]. - In October 2025, the US trade deficit narrowed by 39% month - on - month to $29.4 billion, with exports increasing by 2.6% and imports decreasing by 3.2% [8]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to 208,000, slightly lower than expected, and the number of layoffs in December last year was 35,553, the lowest in 17 months [9]. - Ukraine and the US are close to finalizing a bilateral security agreement [9]. - Crude oil prices rose due to geopolitical tensions in Iran and Venezuela, with the US crude oil main contract rising 4.3% to $58.4 per barrel and Brent crude rising 4.57% to $62.7 per barrel [9]. 3.2 Macro - Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market had a narrow - range consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.07% but still having 15 consecutive positive lines, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.51%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.82%. The market turnover was 2.83 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance in the A - share market reached 2604.7 billion yuan, a record high [11]. - The manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMIs in December were all in the expansion range, indicating an overall improvement in China's economic climate. The stock index continued to rise with increasing volume, but there may be a possibility of rhythm adjustment [11]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The money market tightened, and the bond market rebounded due to the slowdown of the stock index's rise and the sharp correction of commodities. The central bank's policy showed a retreat trend in terms of monetary policy, but the bond market was still optimistic [12]. 3.3 Black Sector 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - From a policy perspective, there is less interference in the steel industry, and the production - side policy interference is low. In terms of fundamentals, the demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is good. The supply of steel mills has a low possibility of negative feedback in the short - term, and inventory is accumulating. The valuation of the steel futures is reasonable [14]. - The demand for iron ore has support for winter replenishment, but the supply is high, showing a loose supply - demand situation. Steel products may oscillate in the medium - term, and it is advisable to hold short positions in iron ore at high levels or short at highs [14][15]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and rise in the short - term, but are restricted by factors such as coal production, safety supervision, and downstream winter storage. In the medium - term, the domestic mine start - up rate has a theoretical upper limit, and there are potential negative feedback risks in the short - term [16]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - The prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon fell sharply. Silicon iron may fluctuate after the sharp decline, and manganese silicon is bearish in the medium - term. The decline is due to the increase in hedging by manufacturers and the departure of long - position funds [17]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash is relatively weak, and the supply is at a high level. It is advisable to wait and see. Glass is relatively strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions or partially realize profits at high levels. The key is to pay attention to the new production capacity of soda ash and the cold - repair of glass production lines [18]. 3.4 Non - ferrous and New Materials 3.4.1 Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the price may oscillate strongly. Although the demand in January decreased, the actual demand is still strong, and the inventory is starting to accumulate, but the accumulation range is limited [20]. 3.4.2 Industrial Silicon - It is expected to be weak due to the planned production cuts of downstream polysilicon manufacturers, and it is advisable to consider shorting at highs or selling out - of - the - money call options [21]. 3.4.3 Polysilicon - The downward adjustment of premium may not be over. After the market supervision department's约谈, the market is worried about changes in the industrial pattern. The spot price may still be supported by the production cuts of large manufacturers [22]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - In the short - term, it may decline due to factors such as poor export data, technical pressure, and profit - taking. In the long - term, the supply may decrease, which is beneficial to the price. Currently, the supply is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday replenishment and the decline of pre - holiday production [24][25]. 3.5.2 Sugar - It is in a season of both supply and demand. Globally, there is an oversupply of sugar, but the domestic market has cost support and pre - holiday demand. It is recommended to trade in the low - value range [26][27]. 3.5.3 Eggs - The spot price is in the pre - holiday seasonal increase stage, driving the near - term futures contracts to be strong, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the upside is limited. The far - term contracts in the second quarter are supported by expectations [28][29]. 3.5.4 Apples - The futures market may be strong. Currently, the apple market has limited transactions in the production areas and slow sales in the sales areas. The key is to pay attention to the price changes in the sales areas [30]. 3.5.5 Corn - In the short - term, it may oscillate strongly. The key is the farmers' selling sentiment. Before the Spring Festival, the probability of a "panic - selling" is low, and the price is likely to oscillate within a range [30][31]. 3.5.6 Jujubes - It is expected to oscillate. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, and the key is to pay attention to the sales performance in the peak consumption season [32][33]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The consumption in the first half of January lacks significant improvement, and the spot price may decline in the middle and late January. It is advisable to be bearish on the futures main contract at high levels [34]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector 3.6.1 Crude Oil - The market is concerned about the political situation in Iran and Venezuela. Although OPEC has suspended production resumption in the first quarter, the probability of future production increase is high. Without new events, the price may oscillate [36]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The price is affected by geopolitical and macro - economic factors and will follow the trend of crude oil prices. The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but there is no strong driving force [37]. 3.6.3 Polyolefins - The supply pressure is large, and the downstream demand is weak. Although the upstream production enterprises are suffering losses, which may provide some support, there is no strong driving force for a large increase. It is advisable to treat it with an oscillating view [38]. 3.6.4 Rubber - It may oscillate. The overseas raw material prices are strong, providing cost support. There is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, and attention should be paid to international situations and domestic policies [39]. 3.6.5 Methanol - The long - term supply - demand pattern is improving, and the inventory may continue to decrease. Although there is a possibility of inventory accumulation at the end of the month, the far - month contracts can be considered for long positions gradually [40]. 3.6.6 Caustic Soda - It follows the general trend of the commodity futures market, and its own fundamentals are weak. The cost has decreased, and the futures price should be treated with a wide - range oscillating view [41]. 3.6.7 Asphalt - The price may fluctuate more greatly in the short - term due to raw material factors. The focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The raw material uncertainty has decreased, and the pricing method is worthy of attention [41][42]. 3.6.8 Polyester Industry Chain - In the short - term, the price follows the cost. It is advisable to consider the positive spread between May and September contracts of PX and PTA. PX has profit support, PTA's supply may increase, and ethylene glycol and short - fiber are under pressure [43]. 3.6.9 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - There is support from import costs, but the upward space is limited. The supply in the Middle East is relatively tight, but the global supply is abundant. The winter demand is strong, but the chemical industry is under pressure [44]. 3.6.10 Pulp - The spot market trading sentiment is weak, and the futures price faces hedging pressure. The fundamentals are stable, and the price has support from overseas markets. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. 3.6.11 Logs - The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the spot price is stable. The supply and demand are expected to be weakly balanced, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [45]. 3.6.12 Urea - The spot market trading is weak, and the futures price may oscillate weakly. The Indian urea tender has not met the procurement expectations [46].