Report Industry Investment Ratings - **偏空**: 沪锌、棕榈油、白糖、沪锡、沪金、沪铜、聚丙烯、热轧卷板、鸡蛋、锰硅、铁矿石、菜油、塑料、螺纹钢、豆二、焦煤、焦炭、沥青、PTA、玻璃、沪银、玉米淀粉 [6] - **震荡**: 沪铅、PVC、豆油、甲醇、橡胶、玉米、沖铝 [6] - **偏多**: 郑棉、菜粕、豆粕、橡胶 [6] Core Views of the Report - **Macro**: The cease - fire agreement in Gaza has been reached, China has implemented export controls on related items, and policies such as the adjustment of new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption requirements and the governance of price disorder have been introduced. The US government shutdown issue remains unresolved, and the Fed has different views on interest rate cuts [8][9][10] - **Macro Finance**: For stock index futures, consider buying on dips and focus on IH; for treasury bond futures, adopt an oscillatory approach and focus on the odds of short - term bonds [12][13] - **Black Metals**: Black metals are expected to maintain an oscillatory mid - term trend. Steel may experience an oscillatory or under - performing peak season. Double - coking prices may continue to oscillate weakly in the short term, and ferroalloys should be shorted on rallies in the medium - to - long term [16][17][18] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Adopt a short - on - rallies approach for soda ash and a wait - and - see approach for glass [21] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: For aluminum, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for alumina, consider shorting on rallies. Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate, and industrial silicon and polysilicon will continue to oscillate within a range [23][24][25] - **Agricultural Products**: For cotton, short on rallies; for sugar, short on rallies in the medium - term and wait - and - see in the short - term. For eggs, short near - month contracts on rallies and adopt an oscillatory approach for far - month contracts. Go long on apples on dips, stay on the sidelines for corn, wait - and - see for red dates, and short near - month hog contracts on rallies [28][29][31] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Hold existing short positions in crude oil. Fuel oil, asphalt, and polyester chains are expected to follow the cost trend and be weak. For plastics, methanol, and caustic soda, adopt a weak - oscillatory approach. For liquefied petroleum gas, maintain a short - term bullish view and a long - term bearish view [37][38][44] Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Macro Information - **International**: A cease - fire agreement in Gaza has been reached. The US is selecting a new Fed chairman, and the US government shutdown bill has not passed. The Fed has different views on interest rate cuts, and spot silver prices have reached a high [8][9][10] - **Domestic**: China has implemented export controls on related items, adjusted new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption requirements, and issued a notice on governing price disorder. Some A - share stocks' margin trading conversion ratios have been adjusted to zero, and the property market during the holiday was generally flat [8][9] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - **Strategy**: Consider buying on dips and focus on IH. The A - share market was high on the first trading day after the holiday, with sector differentiation. Some stocks' margin trading conversion ratios were adjusted to zero [12] Treasury Bond Futures - **Strategy**: Adopt an oscillatory approach and focus on the odds of short - term bonds. The capital market was balanced and loose, and the bond market was affected by multiple factors and is expected to oscillate [13][14] Black Metals - **Policy**: After the Politburo meeting in late July, the "anti - involution" policy cooled down. Pay attention to relevant meetings in October [16] - **Market Rhythm**: The peak season is approaching, but the real demand improvement for steel is limited. The market may oscillate or have an under - performing peak season [16] - **Supply and Demand**: Real estate demand is weak, while coil demand is okay. Steel mills' profits are low, and raw material costs are oscillating [16] - **Trend**: Black metals are expected to oscillate in the medium term. Steel spot prices vary in different regions, and iron ore trading volume has increased [17] - **Coal and Coke**: Double - coking prices may continue to oscillate weakly in the short term, and pay attention to the demand for finished products in the "Golden September and Silver October" [17] - **Ferroalloys**: Short on rallies in the medium - to - long term. The spread between silicon iron and manganese silicon is not currently worth participating in [18] Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: Adopt a short - on - rallies approach. Inventory has increased, production is high, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve [21] - **Glass**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Inventory has increased, and the market is affected by the macro environment and demand [21] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - **Aluminum**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Aluminum prices are high, demand is average, and prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [23] - **Alumina**: Consider shorting on rallies. Supply is high, inventory is increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [23] Lithium Carbonate - **Trend**: Oscillate. Supply is approaching its peak, and demand is in the peak season, resulting in a de - stocking state [24] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Oscillate within a range. Consider going long on far - month contracts at the lower range limit [25] - **Polysilicon**: Oscillate within a range. The industry is affected by policies and terminal feedback [25][26] Agricultural Products Cotton - **Strategy**: Short on rallies. Supply is increasing, demand is uncertain, and the market is expected to be under pressure [28][29] Sugar - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the medium - term and wait - and - see in the short - term. Global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and domestic production may be affected by weather [29][30] Eggs - **Strategy**: Short near - month contracts on rallies and adopt an oscillatory approach for far - month contracts. Supply is high, demand is weak, and the market is in a surplus state [31] Apples - **Strategy**: Go long on dips. The opening price of new - season apples is expected to be high, and pay attention to the impact of weather on quality [33] Corn - **Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines and sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. New - season supply is increasing, and prices are under pressure [34] Red Dates - **Strategy**: Wait - and - see. The market price is stable, and the opening price is expected to be high [35] Hogs - **Strategy**: Short near - month contracts on rallies. The market is in a state of high supply and low demand after the holidays [35] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Trend**: Prices are expected to decline. OPEC+ is increasing production, demand is weakening, and existing short positions can be held [37] Fuel Oil - **Trend**: Follow the oil price trend. Supply is loose, demand is weak, and it is affected by geopolitical and supply - demand factors [38] Plastics - **Trend**: Weakly oscillate. Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak [38] Rubber - **Trend**: Oscillate. The raw material price has support and pressure, and it is affected by multiple factors [39] Methanol - **Trend**: Weakly oscillate. Port inventory is high, and the supply - demand pattern is weak [39][40] Caustic Soda - **Trend**: Bearish. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied [40] Asphalt - **Trend**: Follow the oil price trend. The spot price has declined, and the demand peak season is critical [41] Polyester Industry Chain - **Trend**: Follow the cost and be weak. Supply pressure is high, and the supply - demand pattern is loose [42][43] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - **Trend**: Bearish in the long - term. Supply is abundant, and demand may weaken [44]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides market analysis and trading strategies for various industries including macro finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals and new materials, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It suggests different trading approaches based on industry fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and market trends [3][16][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The US federal government "shut down" on October 1st due to a lack of funds, which impacts economic data release and brings uncertainty to global financial markets. The deadlock is centered on disagreements over healthcare subsidies. As of October 6th, the "shut down" continued [7]. - From October 1st to 6th, the average daily passenger volume in China increased by 5.18% year - on - year. The average full - fare of civil aviation decreased by 2.58% year - on - year, and the average bare - fare decreased by 0.03% year - on - year [8]. - In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month; non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points [8]. - On October 9th, the central bank will conduct a 110 billion yuan 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation. In October, 80 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchases will mature [9]. - The US will impose tariffs on imported softwood logs, lumber, cabinets, bathroom cabinets, upholstered wood products, and medium and heavy - duty trucks starting from October 14th and November 1st respectively [9]. - Fed officials showed a willingness to further cut interest rates in September but were cautious due to inflation concerns [14]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Consider buying on dips and mainly adopt a shock - trading strategy. The A - share market was active before the holiday, and during the holiday, overseas related indexes showed small increases. Overall, the market may be in a shock state [16][17]. Treasury Bond Futures - Consider buying short - term bonds on dips and focus on the steepening strategy. The domestic bond market news was stable during the holiday. The market's expectations for aggregate policies may fluctuate, and further central bank easing may be needed [18][19]. Black Commodities Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - The black market is expected to maintain a medium - term shock trend. Policy expectations are neutral, downstream demand improvement is limited, and inventory and cost factors also affect the market [19][20]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand of finished products during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [21]. Ferroalloys - After the holiday, focus on the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in September. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in an oversupply state, and a high - selling short - bias strategy is recommended in the long - term [21]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, adopt a high - selling short - bias strategy; for glass, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. The market of soda ash lacks driving factors, and glass needs to pay attention to demand improvement and cost changes [23]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - After the holiday, Shanghai aluminum may follow the rise of LME aluminum, but the increase may be limited. Alumina is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [25]. Lithium Carbonate - Supported by strong short - term reality, lithium carbonate will mainly operate in a shock state. Pay attention to the demand rhythm after the holiday [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon will operate in a range, and short - term long - positions can be considered at the lower end of the range. Polysilicon will continue to operate in a shock state, and attention should be paid to policy and demand changes [27][29]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Adopt a short - selling on rallies strategy. The international cotton market was affected by the US government shutdown and supply pressure during the holiday, and the domestic cotton market is expected to be under supply pressure after the holiday [31][33]. Sugar - Domestically, the sugar market is fundamentally bearish, and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium - term. In the short - term, pay attention to the impact of typhoon weather on production [34][35]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs dropped significantly during the holiday. It is recommended to adopt a short - bias strategy for near - month contracts and pay attention to the spread trading of short - near and long - far contracts [36]. Apples - Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to the impact of rainfall on apple quality during the National Day holiday and the price differences in different regions [38]. Corn - Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and consider selling out - of - the - money call options for the 01 contract. The supply of new corn is increasing, and the price is under pressure [39]. Red Dates - Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to the impact of weather on the quality and output of new dates and the progress of orchard contracting [41]. Pigs - Adopt a short - selling on rallies strategy for near - month contracts. The market is in a state of strong supply and weak demand after the double festivals [42][43]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The price of crude oil is expected to decline due to increased supply and decreased demand. It is recommended to hold existing short - positions [44]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil will follow the trend of crude oil, with a supply - abundant and demand - weak pattern [44]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to fluctuate weakly due to supply pressure, and the market will return to fundamental logic in the short - term [47]. Rubber - The domestic rubber market may continue to fluctuate weakly, affected by macro factors, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to raw material supply and inventory changes [48]. Methanol - The port inventory of methanol is large, but the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. A weak - shock strategy is recommended, and pay attention to port de - stocking [49]. Caustic Soda - The futures price of caustic soda is expected to be under pressure before the improvement of fundamentals [49]. Asphalt - Asphalt will follow the trend of crude oil, and pay attention to the de - stocking speed in October [50][51]. Polyester Industry Chain - Polyester products are expected to be weak due to cost decline. Pay attention to device maintenance and terminal orders [52]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG supply is abundant, and a long - term bearish strategy is recommended. The CP price may be affected by peak - season stocking in the short - term [53]. Offset Printing Paper - The market of offset printing paper is expected to operate in a shock state. A light - long or put - selling strategy can be considered near the production cost [54]. Pulp - The pulp market has some support. A long - position strategy can be considered on dips if the spot price stabilizes [55]. Urea - The price of urea is expected to be weak due to increased supply, postponed demand, and decreased cost [56]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly, and pay attention to downstream procurement after the holiday [57].

中泰期货国庆假期市场回顾与展望 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 10 月 8 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | | --- | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | [Table_QuotePic] | | 中泰微投研小程序 | | [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 宏观资讯 1. 美东时间 10 月 1 日 0 时，美国联邦政府因资金用尽，时隔近七年再度"停摆"。数十万联邦雇员 将被迫无薪休假，部分公共服务或暂停、延迟，经济数据发布将受到影响。全球金融市场正面临新 的不确定性。美国劳工部发言人表示，每周失业救济申请数据由于政府关门而不会公布。僵局核心 在医保补贴分歧，民主党要求延长补贴，共和党拒绝在政府重启前谈判。若至 10 月中旬军人和公务 员 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For stock index futures, consider buying on dips and adopting a range - trading strategy. The A - share market is oscillating upwards, but there is insufficient trading volume after the August rally, so it should be treated with a range - trading mindset [16]. - For treasury bond futures, use a range - trading approach and focus on the odds of short - term bonds. The bond market is likely to be range - bound, with a slightly optimistic outlook based on odds and future fundamentals. Consider reducing positions before the holiday [17][18]. - For the black sector, policies are expected to have a neutral impact on the market. The market may experience a "no - peak season" situation. In the short term, it may adjust, and in the medium term, it will maintain a range - bound trend [18][19]. - For coal and coke, prices may continue to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the demand for finished products during the "Golden September and Silver October" period should be monitored [21]. - For ferroalloys, in the long - term, maintain a short - selling approach on rallies. Hold short positions with high - cost entry over the holiday [22]. - For soda ash and glass, adopt a short - selling approach on rallies for soda ash and a wait - and - see approach for glass [23]. - For aluminum and alumina, it is recommended to wait and see for aluminum. For alumina, short - sell on rallies, while being aware of policy changes in Guinea's ore supply [25]. - For zinc, zinc prices will oscillate weakly after the macro - impact fades, and are expected to have a narrow - range oscillation in the short term due to holidays [26]. - For lithium carbonate, it will operate in a wide - range oscillation without obvious drivers [27]. - For industrial silicon, it oscillates within a range, and it is advisable to buy on dips for far - month contracts at the lower end of the range [28]. - For polysilicon, it will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and cautious operation is recommended [30]. - For cotton, adopt a short - selling approach on rallies and wait and see during the National Day holiday [32]. - For sugar, maintain a short - selling approach in the medium - term and wait and see in the short term [34]. - For eggs, short - sell on dips for near - month contracts and consider a short - near and long - far arbitrage strategy [36]. - For apples, buy on dips with a light position [38]. - For corn, remain on the sidelines for single - side trading and sell out - of - the - money call options for the 01 contract [38]. - For red dates, it is recommended to wait and see [40]. - For hogs, short - sell on rallies for near - month contracts and control positions [41]. - For crude oil, it is likely to shift to a supply - exceeding - demand situation, and consider short - selling on rallies [42]. - For fuel oil, its price will follow the movement of oil prices [43]. - For plastics, it will oscillate weakly in the long - term, with short - term rebounds due to sentiment [45]. - For rubber, be cautious when holding positions as pre - holiday volatility may increase [47]. - For methanol, adopt a range - trading approach with a slightly bullish bias [48]. - For caustic soda, the futures are expected to oscillate [49]. - For asphalt, it will follow the movement of oil prices [50]. - For offset printing paper, it is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to buy on dips or sell put options near the factory's production cost line [52]. - For the polyester industry chain, it is expected to operate weakly [54]. - For liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), maintain a bearish view in the long - term [55]. - For pulp, the downside space of the futures is limited. Consider buying on dips after the holiday if the spot price stabilizes [56]. - For logs, the market is expected to oscillate. Consider buying on dips if price support is confirmed and downstream orders are good during the peak season [57]. - For urea, use a range - trading approach due to pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment [58]. - For synthetic rubber, the main contract oscillates weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see [59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd to discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan [12]. - The National Development and Reform Commission introduced that new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan will be used to supplement project capital [12]. - The US Department of Commerce issued export control rules, and China's Ministry of Commerce firmly opposes this and will safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [12]. - Six departments issued a plan to stabilize the growth of the machinery industry, aiming for an average annual revenue growth of about 3.5% from 2025 to 2026, with revenue exceeding 10 trillion yuan [12]. - The China Household Electrical Appliances Association issued an initiative against unfair competition [12]. - Deepseek released the DeepSeek - V3.2 - Exp model and open - sourced it, while also significantly reducing the official API price by over 50% [13]. - US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reached a 20 - point plan to end the Gaza war, pending the approval of Hamas [13]. - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on movies made outside the US and large - scale tariffs on furniture - producing countries [13]. - The value of the US Treasury's 261.5 million ounces of gold reserves has exceeded $1 trillion, and re - evaluating at market prices could release about $990 billion in funds [13]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Some are against it due to concerns about inflation remaining above the target until 2028, while others are open to potential rate cuts but with caution [14]. - In August, China issued local government bonds worth 980.1 billion yuan, and from January to August, the total issuance was 7.6838 trillion yuan [14]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market is oscillating upwards, with brokerage stocks surging in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.74%. The daily trading volume was 2.18 trillion yuan. The market should be treated with a range - trading mindset due to insufficient trading volume after the August rally [16]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market is weak due to the market's digestion of the central bank's monetary policy meeting and the strong stock market. The bond market is expected to oscillate, and positions can be reduced before the holiday [17][18]. 3.4 Black Sector - Policy impact is expected to be neutral. The market may experience a "no - peak season" situation due to limited real demand improvement, high inventory in some varieties, and profit - taking from basis trading. In the short term, it may adjust, and in the medium term, it will range - bound [18][19]. 3.5 Coal and Coke - Prices may continue to oscillate weakly in the short term. Supply is gradually recovering, but "anti - involution" and environmental protection policies may affect the market. The focus will return to supply - demand fundamentals after the Fed's interest rate cut event [21]. 3.6 Ferroalloys - In the long - term, maintain a short - selling approach on rallies. Hold short positions with high - cost entry over the holiday [22]. 3.7 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, short - sell on rallies. Supply is at a historical high, and there may be inventory accumulation pressure after the pre - holiday restocking. For glass, wait and see. The spot market is stable, and attention should be paid to fuel - upgrade and demand improvement [23]. 3.8 Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, wait and see due to weak demand and poor inventory performance in September. For alumina, short - sell on rallies as there is high supply and increasing inventory pressure [25]. 3.9 Zinc - Zinc prices will oscillate weakly after the macro - impact fades. In the short term, they are expected to have a narrow - range oscillation due to holidays [26]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - It will operate in a wide - range oscillation without obvious drivers, with short - term price support from inventory reduction [27]. 3.11 Industrial Silicon - It oscillates within a range, and it is advisable to buy on dips for far - month contracts at the lower end of the range. The复产 progress of Xinjiang's leading manufacturers is the core supply - demand contradiction [28]. 3.12 Polysilicon - It will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and cautious operation is recommended. Policy progress dominates the market, and there is a contradiction between strong policy expectations and fundamental oversupply [30]. 3.13 Cotton - Adopt a short - selling approach on rallies and wait and see during the National Day holiday. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. Pay attention to the impact of the crude oil market and international trade tariffs [32]. 3.14 Sugar - Maintain a short - selling approach in the medium - term and wait and see in the short term. The global sugar market is facing oversupply pressure, and domestic supply is expected to increase [34][35]. 3.15 Eggs - Egg prices are under pressure due to high inventory and the post - festival off - season. Short - sell on dips for near - month contracts and consider a short - near and long - far arbitrage strategy [36]. 3.16 Apples - Lightly buy on dips. The new - season apples have a strong expectation of high opening prices. Pay attention to weather conditions in the producing areas [38]. 3.17 Corn - Remain on the sidelines for single - side trading and sell out - of - the - money call options for the 01 contract. The spot price is weak due to increasing supply, but there is some support from the expected supply gap in 2025/26 [38][39]. 3.18 Red Dates - It is recommended to wait and see. The new - season production is controversial, and the market price is stable [40]. 3.19 Hogs - The supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak. Short - sell on rallies for near - month contracts and control positions [41]. 3.20 Crude Oil - It is likely to shift to a supply - exceeding - demand situation. Consider short - selling on rallies. Pay attention to the progress of US - Russia negotiations and OPEC+ quota adjustments [42]. 3.21 Fuel Oil - Its price will follow the movement of oil prices, and there is high uncertainty in the external market during the holiday [43]. 3.22 Plastics - It will oscillate weakly in the long - term, with short - term rebounds due to sentiment. Supply pressure is high, and demand is relatively weak [45]. 3.23 Rubber - Be cautious when holding positions as pre - holiday volatility may increase. Supply is increasing, and attention should be paid to profit repair and post - holiday weather conditions [47]. 3.24 Methanol - Adopt a range - trading approach with a slightly bullish bias. Port inventory pressure is large but the inventory accumulation rate has slowed down [48]. 3.25 Caustic Soda - The futures are expected to oscillate due to pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment and weak fundamentals [49]. 3.26 Asphalt - It will follow the movement of oil prices. It has entered the seasonal demand peak season, with inventory decreasing [50][51]. 3.27 Offset Printing Paper - It is expected to oscillate. Consider buying on dips or selling put options near the factory's production cost line [52]. 3.28 Polyester Industry Chain - It is expected to operate weakly due to weakening cost support from falling international oil prices and limited demand during the peak season [54]. 3.29 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Maintain a bearish view in the long - term. Supply is abundant, and demand is unlikely to exceed expectations [55]. 3.30 Pulp - The downside space of the futures is limited. Consider buying on dips after the holiday if the spot price stabilizes. Domestic supply will support the far - month contracts, but the spot market is still weak [56]. 3.31 Logs - The market is expected to oscillate. Consider buying on dips if price support is confirmed and downstream orders are good during the peak season [57]. 3.32 Urea - Use a range - trading approach due to pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment. The spot market price is stable, and the futures market is oscillating [58]. 3.33 Synthetic Rubber - The main contract oscillates weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see. Downstream procurement has slowed down before the holiday [59][60].

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Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - The international cotton market is affected by tariff games, demand concerns, and new cotton harvest pressure, leading to a weakening trend in cotton prices. The poor export data from USDA also contributes to the weak performance [8]. - The domestic cotton market has low downstream textile enterprise operating rates, slow yarn inventory digestion, and weak demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. New flower listings restrict price drops, but strong basis limits further decline [8]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a short - side approach on rallies, but stay on the sidelines before the National Day. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. Summary by Directory Market Overview Price Situation - Futures and spot cotton prices, as well as related price indices, are under downward pressure. The NYBOT 2 -号 cotton futures closed at 66.27 (down 0.05% week - on - week), the international cotton index M declined by 0.89% to 73.83, and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract price dropped 2.30% to 13,405 [5]. - Cotton import profits at the spot and futures levels are shrinking, while the loss in yarn imports is narrowing. The cotton basis strengthened this week [5]. Supply - Demand Factors - Globally, according to the USDA September report, cotton production is expected to increase by 0.91% to 25.6542 million tons, and inventory is expected to decrease by 1.04% to 15.9445 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio dropped to 61.55% [7]. - In the domestic market, production is expected to increase slightly by 3.17% to 7.085 million tons. Commercial inventory decreased by 32.34% to 1.4817 million tons, and imports increased by 40% to 70,000 tons. Textile exports decreased by 0.85% [7]. Spot Market Price and Spread - Spot cotton and yarn prices are in a high - level volatile and slow - decline state, with imported cotton prices at a low level. Cotton import profits remain relatively large [13][22]. - The basis of cotton and yarn showed a rebound this week [19]. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Data - The USDA September report shows an increase in global cotton production and a decrease in inventory. US upland cotton exports decreased week - on - week [26][29]. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand and Industry Data - Domestic cotton production is expected to increase according to the September reports of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and USDA. Commercial inventory is in a destocking state, and port inventory continues to decline [33][37]. - Cotton imports rebounded month - on - month, but overall imports weakened. Textile enterprise operating rates are stable, yarn inventory is slowly decreasing, and cotton raw material inventory is declining. Cotton yarn imports did not increase significantly, and textile exports are not bad [40][42][45]. Exchange Rate Trends - The US dollar index rebounded, and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate slowed down [50].

Report Scope and Title - The report is a weekly LPG report titled "Geopolitical Conflicts Heat Up Again, Cost drives LPG Higher", dated September 28, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Report Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions have flared up again, and in the short term, cost will drive LPG to strengthen to a certain extent [6] - OPEC+ is further increasing crude oil production. Although geopolitical disturbances between the US and Venezuela, the US and Iran, and the US and Russia may offset the increase to some extent, it does not change the fact that LPG supply remains abundant [6] - On the demand side, the peak season for the blending market is coming to an end, and it will be difficult to maintain high operating rates, so chemical demand may weaken [6] - PDH profits have significantly recovered, and subsequent operating rates may be supported [6] - Overall, LPG supply is very abundant. CP prices may be affected by peak - season stockpiling and strengthen periodically in the short term, but will follow oil prices in the long term. With high supply and the expectation that demand is unlikely to strengthen beyond expectations, the upside for LPG is limited, and a bearish view is maintained in the long term [6] Summary by Related Catalogs PART 01: LPG Market Review - Propane CP expected average price is $544/ton, down $4/ton from the previous period, a 0.73% month - on - month decrease; butane CP expected average price is $524/ton, down $4/ton from the previous period, a 0.76% month - on - month decrease [5] - Propane CFR South China average price is $587/ton, down $7/ton from the previous period, a 1.18% month - on - month decrease; butane CFR South China average price is $567/ton, down $7/ton from the previous period, a 1.22% month - on - month decrease [5] - Domestic LPG supply has increased slightly. This period's LPG commercial volume is 539,200 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous period, a 0.13% increase [5] - Domestic LPG market demand is expected to increase. With the National Day holiday approaching, downstream still has restocking needs before the holiday, and the holiday will boost combustion consumption. In the chemical field, there are plans to start up plants for olefin and alkane deep - processing, including one alkylation unit and three PDH units, and the demand for ether - after C4 and propane is expected to increase [5] PART 02: LPG Fundamentals LPG Supply - Domestic - Data on the operating rates of major refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, comprehensive refining profits of major refineries, and LPG commercial volume in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [11][12] LPG Supply - Import - Data on LPG arrivals in China, import trade margins in the South China region, total monthly LPG imports in China, and LPG imports from different countries from 2021 - 2025 are presented [14][15][16] LPG Inventory - Data on LPG port inventory, refinery capacity utilization ratio, port capacity utilization ratio, factory - level inventory, and sales - to - production ratios in different regions in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [22][23][25] LPG Downstream Industry - Data on PDH unit operating rates, PDH production margins, MTBE isomerization etherification production margins, MTBE export factory capacity utilization rates, alkylation oil capacity utilization rates, and alkylation oil production margins in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [27][29][31] PART 03: LPG - Related Price Data Import Cost: CP Forward and Current - Month Prices - Data on propane and butane CP contract prices, CP crude oil price trends, and propane spot prices in South China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [35][36] Spot: Domestic Refinery Civil Gas Prices and Import Premiums - Data on the ex - factory prices of civil LPG at Guangzhou Petrochemical, Jinan Refinery, and Shanghai Gaoqiao from 2021 - 2025 are presented [38][39][40] PART 04: LPG Other Data - Data on LPG main contract basis, the price difference between the first - and second - month contracts, and registered warehouse receipts at major delivery warehouses from 2021 - 2025 are presented [43][45] Key Strategy Recommendation - Futures strategy: Try shorting at high prices [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The zinc market is currently facing a situation where domestic inventory accumulation has slowed down, and zinc prices are oscillating downward. After the macro - impact fades, zinc prices may have further room to fall [1][7]. Summary according to the Table of Contents 1. This Week's Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The Shanghai zinc futures price first oscillated strongly and then gradually weakened, with a significant decline on Friday night. The market was influenced by the Fed's actions and macro - data, and the zinc's weak fundamentals could not support high prices. The Shanghai - London ratio approached 7.5. The outlook is for prices to oscillate and decline [6][7]. - **Spot Prices**: In Tianjin, zinc prices fell to an acceptable level for downstream buyers, who increased point - price pick - ups for pre - National Day stocking. Inventory decreased, and some smelters were reluctant to sell, leading to a slight increase in the trader's delivery premium. In Shanghai, downstream buyers actively purchased at low prices for stocking, but as some completed stocking and the market rebounded, spot trading weakened [8]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The latest LME zinc inventory was 42,775 tons on September 26 and continued to decline this week. The overseas zinc ingot out - storage was due to a bank's inventory from the previous year [10]. - **Export Profit and Loss**: SMM's new export profit - loss calculations showed a loss of 611 yuan/ton for Southeast Asian warehousing and a profit of 29.5 yuan/ton for Southeast Asian spot (turning from loss to profit) on September 25. There may be a chance of profit in warehousing next week, and zinc products may be exported [14]. 2. Raw Material End - **Processing Fees**: As of September 26, the SMM Zn50 weekly TC average price decreased by 200 yuan/metal ton to 3,650 yuan/metal ton. Domestic zinc mine production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, and smelters' winter - stocking demand and miners' profit considerations may lead to a downward adjustment of zinc ore processing fees in October [17][18]. - **Zinc Concentrate Supply**: In August 2025, 467,300 tons (physical tons) of zinc concentrate were imported, a 6.8% decrease from July and a 30.06% increase year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to August was 3.5027 million tons (physical tons), a 43.06% increase year - on - year [21]. - **Zinc Concentrate Inventory**: The total inventory of SMM zinc concentrate at major Chinese ports was 339,300 tons, a decrease of 84,200 tons from last week, with a significant decline at Fangchenggang Port [26]. 3. Smelting End - **Refined Zinc Import**: In August 2025, China imported 25,656.83 tons of refined zinc, a 43.30% increase from July and a 3.59% decrease year - on - year. Kazakhstan was the largest source of imports, with 20,824.76 tons imported, a 69.97% increase from July and a 67.01% increase year - on - year. Iran was the second - largest source, with a 9.40% year - on - year increase [30]. - **Smelting Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate remained high, and the improvement in the processing economy of domestic ore led to an increase in the overall start - up rate [31][34]. 4. Demand End - **Refined Zinc Export**: No specific data on refined zinc export was provided other than the relevant charts [38][39]. - **Downstream Production and Start - up Rate**: Terminal orders remained weak, and typhoons affected the Guangdong market. The zinc alloy industry was affected by weak demand and low - price alloy competition. In the zinc oxide market, feed - grade zinc oxide was in the peak season, but rubber - grade and ceramic - grade zinc oxide had general demand [40][44]. - **Downstream Prices and Basic Situation**: The overall sales of galvanized pipes were weak, and inventory increased. Galvanized structural parts showed marginal improvement in consumption compared to August. The overall start - up rate of downstream industries was expected to decline slightly next week [44][45]. 5. Zinc Inventory - **Downstream Inventory**: No specific analysis of downstream inventory other than the relevant charts [49]. - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of September 18, the total inventory of SMM's seven - location zinc ingots was 158,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from September 15. The Shanghai bonded - area inventory was 8,000 tons on September 25, unchanged from the previous period [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - From a policy perspective, after the Politburo meeting at the end of July, the "anti - involution" policy cooled down, and it is currently in the policy - making stage. Pay attention to the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October. It is expected that the policy will have a neutral impact on the market outlook, and the black market will return to supply - demand and reality [2]. - In terms of market rhythm, the basis positive arbitrage has entered the closing cycle. Although the peak season is approaching, the real downstream demand for steel has limited improvement. The manufacturing prosperity level is still below the boom - bust line. High inventories of some varieties and the profit - taking of basis positive arbitrage suppress the spot price. It is expected that the market may experience a situation of "no peak season during the peak season" [3]. - Regarding supply - demand, on the demand side, the high - frequency sales data of new real - estate homes have weakened month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth of new housing starts is still negative. Although there are many infrastructure projects under construction, there is still pressure on funds, and the overall project progress is slow. The concrete delivery volume still shows a year - on - year decrease, and the overall building materials demand is still weak. For coil demand, downstream consumption in industries such as machinery, automobiles, containers, and home appliances is acceptable, and steel mills generally have no pressure in coil orders, with a delivery period of more than 30 days. However, high inventories of galvanized and cold - rolled products affect steel valuations. In terms of exports, the State Administration of Taxation issued an announcement that will take effect on October 1, which is expected to have a significant impact on buy - order exports [3]. - In terms of valuation, steel mill profits are acceptable but at a low level, with the production profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils at about 100 - 200 yuan/ton. After the downstream restocking for the National Day is basically over, the long - process cost is stable, and the futures prices of raw materials such as iron ore, coking coal, and coke are adjusted. The market valuation is expected to remain between off - peak and on - peak electricity prices [3]. - For alloys, the supply - side contradiction of ferromanganese silicon is large, and the over - supply pressure is gradually emerging. The medium - to - long - term trend of selling high remains unchanged. The cost line of ferrosilicon is generally judged to be neutral to weak, and the medium - term strategy of selling high for ferrosilicon also remains unchanged. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt pressure of the November contract [4]. - In terms of trends, the black market is expected to adjust in the short term and maintain a volatile trend in the medium term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy Review - From July 2024 to September 2025, multiple policies related to the industrial economy were introduced, including policies for coal production verification, ten key industries' stable growth, and enterprise income tax prepayment declaration optimization [11][16]. 3.2 Market Participant and Pricing Logic Changes - In recent years, the black - market participants and pricing logic have changed significantly. In the spot market, futures and spot are deeply integrated, and basis pricing has a large market scale, with the futures market guiding or even dominating spot pricing. In the futures market, the capital capacity has increased significantly (exceeding 700 billion yuan in 2025), and the involvement of financial capital has increased price volatility. The trading and pricing logic has become "buying expectations and selling reality" [19]. 3.3 Downstream Industry Analysis 3.3.1 Real Estate - The real - estate investment continues to decline, with the year - on - year decrease in the real - estate development investment completion amount in 2025. The sales of new and second - hand houses have also decreased slightly year - on - year. The new housing starts have a large year - on - year decline, and the construction and completion areas also show negative growth to varying degrees [48][60][67]. 3.3.2 Infrastructure - In July 2025, 905 infrastructure projects were started across the country, with a total investment of about 179.1569 billion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of investment were Tibet, Anhui, and Fujian. The growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down, and the issuance of local government special bonds has shown certain fluctuations [75]. 3.3.3 Manufacturing - The investment intensity in the manufacturing industry has weakened slightly, and the entire downstream industry still faces inventory - reduction pressure. The PMI data has improved. In August 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The Caixin manufacturing PMI in August was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from July [99][103]. 3.3.4 Machinery - The construction machinery industry ended a three - year decline in 2024 and achieved a bottom - out recovery. In 2025, the domestic replacement cycle is expected to start gradually. In July 2025, the sales of various excavators were 17,138 units, a year - on - year increase of 25.2%. The sales of other construction machinery such as graders, rollers, and pavers also showed different trends [109][111]. 3.4 Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Strategy**: Steel is expected to maintain a volatile trend; short iron ore at high prices and hold; the coking coal and coke futures prices may fluctuate and rise in the short term, and it is advisable to go long on dips; sell high for ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon in the medium term (without chasing short positions) [5]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Participate in the positive arbitrage of iron ore 1 - 5 contracts at low prices; maintain a high spread between coils and rebar; pay attention to the long - term recovery of the steel - ore price ratio under production restrictions; hedge the risk of short positions in far - month ferromanganese silicon with long positions in near - month ferrosilicon [5]. - **Spot - Futures Strategy**: Pay attention to the closing of basis positive arbitrage and the establishment of reverse arbitrage positions for steel during the peak season [5]. - **Options Strategy**: Close the profitable wide - spread options on near - month steel contracts and continue to establish short positions in far - month wide - spread options [5].

中泰期货PVC烧碱产业链周报 PVC + NAOH + CL 2025年9月28日 | | | 上 | 周 | 本 | 周 | | 周环比 | 下 | 周 | 下下周 | 思 路 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 总产量 | 46 . | 09 | 47 . | 96 | 1 . | 87 | 49 | 87 . | 50 74 . | 本周产量略微增加 产量比预期略高 。 ， 下周产量预计增加 前期检修装置开始 ， | | 量 产 （万吨） | 乙烯法 | 13 . | 23 | 14 . | 06 | 0 . | 83 | 14 | 55 . | 15 28 . | 恢复 。 | | | 电石法 | 32 . | 86 | 33 . | 90 | 1 . | 04 | 35 | 32 . | 35 46 . | | | | 进口量（周均） | 1 . | 50 | 1 . | 50 | 0 . | 00 | 1 . | 50 | 1 50 . 2 | 8月出口数据28 411 比前 ...