Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - **Macro - Financial**: A - shares are in a weak and volatile state. For stock index futures, it's recommended to take a wait - and - see approach with a volatile mindset. For treasury bond futures, although the market's expectation of easing has declined, there's still a possibility of interest rate cuts, and it's judged that Q4 will see more easing measures. [8][10] - **Black (Steel and Minerals)**: In the short - term, steel and minerals are expected to fluctuate or rebound, while in the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view on rallies is maintained. [12] - **Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the disturbances caused by coal mine production, safety inspections, and changes in downstream hot metal production. [14] - **Ferroalloys**: There's a risk of the silicon iron and manganese silicon futures prices rising first and then falling. [16] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it's advisable to take a wait - and - see approach. [17] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: For zinc, it's recommended to hold short positions at high levels. For lithium carbonate, there's an opportunity to buy on dips. For industrial silicon, it can be bought on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. For polysilicon, it will continue to fluctuate. [19][20][22][23] - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton is expected to fluctuate at a low level. For sugar, it's advisable to wait and see before a large amount of new sugar enters the market. Eggs may fluctuate. Apples will fluctuate. Corn should be watched for the upper pressure on the futures price. For jujubes, it's advisable to wait and see. For live pigs, it's recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies for near - month contracts. [25][26][28][30][31][33] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate. Fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices. Polyolefins are expected to fluctuate weakly. For rubber, attention should be paid to the strategy of expanding the ru - nr spread. For methanol, near - month contracts should be treated with a weakly - fluctuating mindset, and far - month contracts can be slightly long - configured after a rebound. For caustic soda, it's advisable to wait for a long - position opportunity after short - position reduction. For asphalt, the future focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The polyester industry chain is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. For liquefied petroleum gas, it's not advisable to chase the rise, and short - selling on rallies can be considered in the medium - to - long - term. For pulp, it will maintain a wide - range fluctuation. For logs, it's expected to be under pressure. Urea prices are expected to strengthen. Synthetic rubber will maintain a bottom - range fluctuation in the short - term. [35][37][39][40][41][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][51] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares are in a weak and volatile state. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.46% to 3972.03 points, with a trading volume of 1.93 trillion yuan. The decline in October's macro data may be due to technical factors, export slowdown, "anti - involution", and the real - estate downturn [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market's expectation of easing has declined, but there's still a possibility of interest rate cuts. The money market fluctuates, and the bond market shows a seesaw effect with the stock market. The reasons for the decline in October's macro data are similar to those of stock index futures [10]. Black (Steel and Minerals) - **Policy and Market Outlook**: Macro events have basically landed, and the industry is expected to return to fundamentals in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Central Political Bureau Meeting in early December and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid - December on the market's macro expectations [11]. - **Fundamentals**: On the demand side, real - estate sales are weak, infrastructure projects face capital pressure, and overall building material demand is weak, while the demand for coils is fair. On the supply side, steel mill profits are low, iron - water production may decline, and the five major steel products' inventory is 22.7% higher than last year [11]. - **Valuation and Trend**: The futures prices of raw materials fluctuate, and steel prices are likely to remain weak. In the short - term, steel and minerals may fluctuate or rebound, and in the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view on rallies is maintained [12]. - **Spot Market**: Steel and iron ore spot prices have increased, and the trading volume of steel is fair, while the trading volume of iron ore has decreased [13]. Coal and Coke - **Current Situation**: Coal mine production has increased slightly but remains at a low level. Coke's fourth - round price increase has been implemented, but profits are still negative. Steel mills' hot metal production has increased slightly, supporting raw - material demand in the short - term [15]. - **Future Outlook**: Coal supply may be restricted in the medium - term, but there may be an increase in the short - term. The potential negative feedback risk still restricts coal and coke prices in the short - term [15]. Ferroalloys - **Market Outlook**: There's a risk of the silicon iron and manganese silicon futures prices rising first and then falling. The manganese silicon futures may be under pressure due to potential inventory accumulation at Tianjin Port [16]. - **Fluctuation Reason**: The silicon iron futures were affected by the lanthanum market, and the overall black market sentiment was high [16]. Soda Ash and Glass - **Fluctuation Reason**: The soda ash and glass industry chain is fluctuating, and glass is relatively weak [17]. - **Viewpoint**: Currently, it's advisable to take a wait - and - see approach. For soda ash, inventory has decreased, and production has slightly declined. For glass, the strong sales situation has not continued, and there's a high inventory of mid - stream futures [17]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Zinc**: As of November 17, domestic zinc inventories have decreased. Zinc prices are in a downward - fluctuating trend with potential for rebounds. It's recommended to hold short positions at high levels [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, demand has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased by about 1.5 million tons. There's an opportunity to buy on dips [20][21]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It can be bought on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options [22]. - **Polysilicon**: The industry still expects "anti - involution" policies. The price will continue to fluctuate [23]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The US and global cotton production and inventory have increased, while Brazilian cotton may have a slight reduction in production [25]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. Domestic sugar prices are affected by production increases and low import costs. It's advisable to wait and see before a large amount of new sugar enters the market [26][27]. - **Eggs**: Spot prices are weak, and futures prices may fluctuate. The in - production laying - hen inventory is high, but it's expected to decline gradually [28][29]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to fluctuate. The acquisition of late - maturing Fuji apples is coming to an end, and the inventory is relatively low [30]. - **Corn**: Spot prices have rebounded, but there's still supply pressure. It's necessary to pay attention to the upper pressure on the futures price [31][32]. - **Jujubes**: The price is in a low - level and stable state, and it's advisable to wait and see [33]. - **Live Pigs**: Supply pressure continues, and demand is average. It's recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies for near - month contracts [33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical influence has weakened, and prices have fallen. The market expects a supply surplus in Q1 next year, and OPEC +'s measures to stabilize prices have limited effects [35]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices will follow crude oil prices, and the supply - demand structure is loose [37]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply pressure is high, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Although production enterprises are suffering losses, there may be some support [39]. - **Rubber**: The price may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the strategy of expanding the ru - nr spread [40]. - **Methanol**: The market is highly volatile, and the supply - demand situation is weak. It's recommended to take a weakly - fluctuating approach for near - month contracts and a slightly long - configured approach for far - month contracts after a rebound [41]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices are falling, and futures prices are weak. It's advisable to wait for a long - position opportunity after short - position reduction [43]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation range is expected to increase, and the future focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [44]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The upstream supply structure has improved marginally, but downstream demand is weak. The industry chain is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [45]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The price has risen, but it's not advisable to chase the rise. Short - selling on rallies can be considered in the medium - to - long - term [46]. - **Pulp**: The price will maintain a wide - range fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the digestion of old warehouse receipts and spot trading [47]. - **Logs**: The price is expected to be under pressure. The supply pressure has slightly decreased, and the inventory is expected to accumulate [48]. - **Urea**: Spot and futures prices are expected to strengthen [49][50]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price will maintain a bottom - range fluctuation in the short - term. It's advisable to be cautious when going long and consider selling call options after a rebound [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost and processing profit losses support the price, but the peak supply season and macro uncertainties suppress the upward movement, with the overall situation continuing to fluctuate [1]. - Yunnan is approaching the end of the tapping season, and raw material prices have stopped falling, although profits remain low, providing some support for the far - month RU contracts. Thai cup rubber prices have risen due to factory purchases and weather conditions, but the peak season still exerts pressure on the upside. Domestic downstream demand is stable, but inventory accumulation has started in November due to increased imports, causing the spot market to weaken slightly. Overall, there are no obvious supply - demand contradictions, and the market will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to raw material output, inventory accumulation speed, and macro - policies in November [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview - **Global Production**: In September 2025, the global natural rubber production showed a slight increase overall. Thailand produced 451,500 tons, Indonesia 195,000 tons, Vietnam 151,800 tons, China 122,300 tons, and Malaysia 33,000 tons. China had a significant increase in production, while Vietnam had a decline [5]. - **Main - producing Countries' Export Volume**: From January to August 2025, the export volume of main - producing countries increased significantly, mainly due to China's increased import enthusiasm. In September, the import volume of natural rubber in China still exceeded expectations, with the main increase coming from mixed rubber [5][6]. - **Domestic Production and Import**: The production of domestic whole - milk rubber decreased year - on - year in the new season, and it is expected that this year's output will fall short of expectations. In September, the total import volume of natural rubber was 595,900 tons, with significant increases in latex, smoked sheets, and other types [6]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory has started to accumulate. The inventory of light - colored rubber has not increased, but the digestion of old whole - milk rubber has slowed down after the release of reserve rubber into the market. The inventory of dark - colored rubber has increased significantly, and its sustainability should be monitored [6]. - **Downstream Industry**: The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires are expected to remain stable. The production volume of tires decreased seasonally in October due to holidays. Automobile sales and the logistics index are expected to remain stable or increase slightly, while tire exports decreased slightly seasonally [7]. - **Price and Profit**: The prices of raw materials such as Yunnan and Hainan glue showed slight fluctuations. The processing profits of Yunnan and Hainan remained low, and the profits of Thai latex were flat or weak [7]. 3.2 Balance Sheet Analysis - **Domestic Natural Rubber Total Balance Sheet**: It is expected that the import volume will increase month - on - month in November, and the market will enter a seasonal inventory - accumulation period [15]. - **Supply and Demand of Light - colored Rubber**: Light - colored rubber has been continuously reducing inventory, mainly because the cancellation rate of warehouse receipts is higher than the new rubber storage rate. However, the inflow of reserve rubber into the market has increased the spot pressure. The new warehouse receipts in October failed to meet expectations [16]. - **Supply and Demand of Dark - colored Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the raw material supply and price in Thailand's northeastern region, as well as the import and demand changes in the fourth quarter [18]. 3.3 Cost and Profit Analysis - **Chinese Raw Material Prices and Spreads**: The report presents seasonal charts of raw material prices and spreads in Yunnan and Hainan, including the price spreads between different raw materials and different rubber types [22][24]. - **Chinese Rubber Processing Profits**: Seasonal charts of processing profits for different rubber types in Hainan and Yunnan are provided, such as the processing profit of Hainan latex and the delivery profit of Yunnan whole - milk RU01 contract [27]. - **Thai Raw Material Prices and Spreads**: Seasonal charts of Thai raw material prices and spreads are presented, including the price of Thai cup rubber and the spread between Thai latex and cup rubber [30]. - **Thai Raw Material Spreads and Rubber Processing Profits**: Seasonal charts of processing profits for different rubber types in Thailand are provided, such as the delivery profit of the Indian - standard NR main contract and the processing profit of Thai standard rubber [33]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Supply - Demand Inventory Data Display - **Weather and Rainfall in Main - producing Areas**: ONI index changes and cumulative precipitation data in Hainan, Yunnan, and Thailand are presented, which can affect rubber production [37][39][41]. - **Main - producing Countries' Export Volume**: Cumulative export volume and year - on - year data of natural rubber in Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia are provided [43]. - **Domestic Natural Rubber Supply - Demand Inventory**: Cumulative supply, demand, and inventory data of domestic natural rubber, as well as their year - on - year changes, are presented [47]. - **Chinese Natural Rubber Import Volume**: Cumulative and monthly import volume data of natural rubber in China, as well as the year - on - year changes in the total positions of RU and NR, are provided [50]. - **Chinese Natural Rubber Import Volume by Rubber Type**: Monthly import volume data of different rubber types in China, such as concentrated latex, smoked sheets, standard rubber, and mixed rubber, are presented [53]. - **Light - colored Rubber Analysis**: Data on the supply, demand, and inventory of light - colored rubber, including the cumulative supply, consumption, and weekly inventory of whole - milk and 3L rubber, are provided [56][58][61]. - **Dark - colored Rubber Analysis**: Data on the supply, demand, and inventory of dark - colored rubber, including the cumulative consumption, import volume, and inventory of different types of dark - colored rubber, as well as tire - related data such as tire factory operating rates, production, inventory, and profit, are provided [65][68][73]. 3.5 Price, Spread, and Basis Analysis - **Price Charts of Different Rubber Types**: Continuous price charts of whole - milk, smoked sheets, domestic standard rubber, Thai standard rubber, 3L, Thai mixed rubber, and latex are presented [88]. - **Seasonal Prices of Different Rubber Types**: Seasonal price charts of whole - milk, smoked sheets, domestic standard two - grade rubber, and Thai standard rubber are provided [90]. - **Seasonal Spreads of Different Rubber Types**: Seasonal spread charts between whole - milk rubber and other rubber types, such as smoked sheets, 3L, domestic standard rubber, Thai standard rubber, Thai mixed rubber, and latex, are presented [92][94]. - **Basis between Whole - milk Rubber and Shanghai Rubber RU**: Basis charts between whole - milk rubber and different RU contracts, such as 09, 05, and 01 contracts, are provided [96]. - **Spread between Shanghai Rubber RU and Mixed Rubber**: Spread charts between different RU contracts and mixed rubber, such as RU01, RU05, and RU09 contracts, are provided [97][98]. - **Basis between Thai Standard/Thai Mixed Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber NR**: Basis charts between Thai standard/Thai mixed rubber and different NR contracts, such as 01 and 12 contracts, are provided [100]. - **Inter - contract Spreads**: Spread charts between different RU contracts, such as RU05 - RU09, RU11 - next - year RU01, etc., are provided [103]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Spread charts between different varieties, such as RU01 and NR01, RU01 and NR12, etc., are provided [105].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile situation, with different sectors having different trends and influencing factors. For example, the A - share market is affected by macro - data and shows an upward - then - downward trend; the steel and ore market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term; and the energy market is influenced by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships [10][12][35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The 22nd issue of Qiushi magazine published President Xi Jinping's important article. The National Bureau of Statistics released October economic data, showing a slowdown in multiple indicators. The prices of commercial housing in 70 cities declined. The Chinese government reminded citizens to avoid traveling to Japan. The State Council studied "two - important" construction and consumption - promotion policies. The central bank will conduct a large - scale reverse - repurchase operation. The US will release multiple economic data. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will list platinum and palladium futures. The market supervision department issued an anti - monopoly compliance guide. The national child - rearing subsidy system has been implemented, and the lithium - battery industry chain has seen a price increase. Trump adjusted the scope of "reciprocal tariffs" [4][5][6][7][8]. Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt a volatile mindset and temporarily hold off on trading. The A - share market rose and then fell, affected by macro - data. The decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment may be due to technical factors, export slowdown, anti - involution, and the real - estate downturn [10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market's expectation of monetary easing has declined, but interest - rate cuts cannot be ruled out. Maintain the view of increased easing in Q4. The money market is affected by the approaching tax period, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is weakly effective [11]. Black - **Steel and Ore**: In the short - term, expect a volatile consolidation; in the medium - to - long - term, maintain a bearish view when prices are high. The supply - demand relationship is weak, with high inventory and low profit for steel mills. The price is affected by low - price transactions and may remain weak [12][13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices may continue to decline in the short - term. In the medium - term, the mine's production is restricted by policies, and the demand for steel is weak in the off - season, but the strong thermal - coal price provides some support [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: In the long - term, the oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate, so maintain a bearish view when prices are high. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. The prices are fluctuating narrowly, and the cost of manganese - silicon is relatively stable [15]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is recommended to wait and see. The soda - ash industry has production fluctuations and cost increases, while the glass industry's strong sales have not continued, and the market is concerned about demand and inventory [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term fundamentals are good, but the demand may weaken in Q1 next year, limiting price increases. After the demand weakens, the price may correct, and it is advisable to buy on dips [18]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has no prominent supply - demand contradictions and can be bought on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. Polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate, influenced by policy expectations and supply - demand relationships [19]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. The price is undervalued compared to the spot, which limits the decline. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [23][24]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is expected to be bearish. Before the large - scale arrival of new sugar, it is advisable to wait and see. In the long - term, there is still supply pressure [25][27]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price may oscillate. The in - production laying - hen inventory is high, but it is expected to decline. It is recommended to short the near - term contracts [28]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner. The inventory is low, and the price is high. The future consumption trend will be the focus [30]. - **Corn**: The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure is still accumulating. It is necessary to pay attention to the new - grain sales progress and the release of policy wheat [31]. - **Red Dates**: Temporarily wait and see. The weak spot market in the sales area has a negative impact on the new - date ordering price [32]. - **Pigs**: The supply pressure continues, and the demand is average. The spot price is likely to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short the near - term contracts [33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile, but the long - term downward trend of oversupply remains unchanged. The price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand forecasts [35]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the oil price, with a supply - abundant and demand - weak structure. The short - term focus is on supply concerns after the sanctions on Russia [36]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and it is expected to be weakly volatile. The current price provides some support for producers [36][37]. - **Rubber**: Pay attention to the strategy of expanding the ru - nr spread. The price may oscillate in the short - term, with supply in the peak season and support at the bottom [37]. - **Methanol**: The near - term contracts are expected to be weakly volatile, and the far - term contracts can be moderately long after the rebound drive appears. The supply pressure is large, and the inventory is high [38][39]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait for long - position opportunities after a significant decline. Pay attention to the cost support. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is weak [40]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [41]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It is expected to continue to be strong in the short - term, driven by improved supply - demand and market sentiment [42]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Although there are short - term positive factors, it is not advisable to chase the rise. Consider shorting at high prices in the medium - to - long - term [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Observe the digestion of old warehouse receipts and spot transactions [45]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the price is under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the market is in the off - season [46]. - **Urea**: Wait and see, subject to specific policies. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is oscillating [47]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term price will oscillate within a range. Be cautious when going long and consider selling call options after the rebound [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content about the report industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors including macro - economic events, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics in different sectors. Different commodities have different outlooks based on their specific fundamentals [13][16][24]. - In the macro - economic aspect, the US government "stop - work" has ended, and China's social financing scale and related monetary indicators show certain trends. The global trade situation, especially regarding US - China trade in soybeans and China's rare - earth export policy, is also under the spotlight [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Information - Trump signed a federal government temporary appropriation bill, ending a 43 - day government "stop - work". The US government's "stop - work" was estimated to have cost $1.5 trillion [9]. - Japan's Prime Minister made remarks about the Taiwan issue, and China warned that any Japanese military intervention in the Taiwan Strait would be regarded as an act of aggression [9]. - China agreed to buy about 12 million tons of US soybeans in November and December and at least 25 million tons per year for the next three years. China is designing a new rare - earth export licensing system [9]. - China's social financing scale increment in the first ten months was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the previous year. At the end of October, the year - on - year growth of social financing stock was 8.5%, and M2 was 8.2%, both down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month [10]. - The new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy is ending, and 17 mainstream car brands have launched purchase tax subsidy programs [10]. - The US failed to release the October CPI report, and the IMF predicted that the US Q4 GDP growth would be lower than the previous forecast of 1.9% [10]. - Fed officials had different views on interest - rate policies, with some opposing further rate cuts and others advocating maintaining the current rate [11]. 3.2 Macro - Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - Adopt a volatile mindset and stay on the sidelines for now. The A - share market opened lower and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.73% to 4029.5 points. Some pension insurance companies are adjusting their investment portfolios, and the CSRC will deepen investment - financing reforms [13]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Monetary policy implementation is in the process of being fulfilled, and bonds still have upward momentum. Pay attention to the rhythm. The money market is loose, and the bond market is affected by the strong performance of the equity market and the release of social financing data [14]. 3.3 Black Commodities - The black commodity market is likely to return to fundamental trading in the short - to - medium - term. The overall demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is relatively stable. Steel mills' profits are low, and iron - water production is expected to decline. The prices of black commodities are likely to fluctuate at the bottom [16]. - Iron ore supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to face downward pressure [17]. - Coking coal and coke prices may continue to decline in the short - term, affected by production policies and downstream demand [18]. - For ferroalloys, in the long - term, it is advisable to take a short - position approach when prices are high, and in the short - term, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [19]. - For soda ash and glass, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now. Soda ash production and inventory have declined slightly, and some enterprises have raised prices. Glass inventory has increased slightly, and the market is waiting for demand improvement [22]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - For zinc, it is recommended to hold short positions at high prices. The domestic zinc inventory has decreased, and the price has been fluctuating at a high level recently [24]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term fundamentals are good, but the demand may weaken in Q1 next year. It is advisable to wait for price corrections to buy [25]. - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range [26]. - For polysilicon, the market is waiting for policy changes, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [27][28]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Cotton is expected to fluctuate at a low level due to supply pressure and weak demand, but high costs provide some support [29]. - Sugar supply is expected to be in surplus globally, and domestic sugar prices are affected by import costs and production increases. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines before new sugar floods the market [31]. - For eggs, it is recommended to take a short - position approach for near - month contracts. The supply pressure is large, and the spot price is weak, but the long - term outlook is positive due to "capacity reduction" [33]. - Apples are expected to fluctuate strongly. The inventory is low, and the price is high. Future consumption trends will be the key factor [35]. - Corn prices may face pressure above. The spot price has rebounded, but the new - grain supply pressure is still accumulating [36]. - For jujubes, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now. The spot price in the sales area is weak, dragging down the futures price [37]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to decline in the long - term due to supply surplus, and in the short - term, they will fluctuate weakly [39]. - Fuel oil prices will follow the trend of oil prices, with a supply - abundant and demand - flat situation [41]. - Plastics are expected to fluctuate weakly due to supply pressure, but production losses may provide some support [42]. - Rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [42]. - Synthetic rubber prices may stop falling and rebound in the short - term, but it is still necessary to be cautious when going long [44]. - Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the near - term and may rise in the far - term after a rebound driver appears [45]. - Caustic soda prices are expected to be stable at a low level, and it is advisable to take a long - position approach at a low valuation [46]. - Asphalt prices are expected to have a larger fluctuation range, and the focus will be on the price bottom after the "winter storage" game [47]. - The polyester industry chain is expected to be strong in the short - term due to positive export policies [48]. - LPG is expected to be strong in the short - term due to the approaching civil - use peak season, but bearish in the long - term due to abundant supply [49]. - Pulp is expected to fluctuate widely, with limited upward space [50]. - Logs are expected to be weak in the short - term, with the price under pressure [50]. - For urea, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines due to strong export - policy uncertainties [51].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views of the Report - A shares showed a volatile trend, with the photovoltaic industry chain dropping due to rumors, and the banking and insurance sectors strengthening. The strategy for A shares is to adopt a volatile mindset and stay on the sidelines. For treasury bond futures, there is still upward momentum for bonds, and attention should be paid to the rhythm [8][9]. - Black commodities are expected to oscillate at the bottom, with a mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies. The steel and iron ore market is affected by supply - demand fundamentals and policy expectations, and iron ore may face supply - demand imbalance in the future [11][12]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, zinc prices are high but the spot market has weak buying interest; lithium carbonate has good short - term fundamentals but may face a price correction in the first quarter of next year; industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to continue to oscillate [18][19][23]. - For agricultural products, cotton and sugar are under supply pressure and are expected to be weak, while eggs are in the process of capacity reduction, and apples are expected to oscillate strongly. Corn and dates face supply pressure, and the pig market is expected to be weak [25][27][33]. - In the energy and chemical sector, oil prices are expected to be weakly oscillating due to supply - demand imbalance. Fuel oil, plastics, and other products are affected by factors such as supply - demand and cost, and their prices are expected to follow the trend of oil prices or oscillate weakly [35][37][40]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - Rumors about the cancellation of the polysilicon storage platform were refuted. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is promoting "anti - involution" work, and JinkoSolar clarified relevant rumors [6]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange International Investors Conference opened. The CSRC will deepen comprehensive reforms in investment and financing, strengthen strategic force reserves and market - stabilizing mechanisms, and optimize the structure of listed companies [6]. - CATL's fifth - generation lithium iron phosphate battery has been mass - produced, and the "Chocolate Battery Swap Alliance" is expanding [6]. - The US House of Representatives will vote on a temporary appropriation bill, which may end the government shutdown. The government shutdown may reduce Q4 economic growth by two percentage points [6]. - The US Treasury Secretary may announce "substantial" tariff news, and there are plans for tariff exemptions and tax rebates [6]. - There are differences within the Fed on interest rate policies, with some members having different views on interest rate cuts [6]. - The US Treasury will maintain the scale of Treasury bond auctions, and the issuance of long - term bonds may increase [6]. - The issuance scale of global investment - grade bonds has reached a new high, and oil prices have fallen due to concerns about supply surplus [6]. - Precious metal futures generally rose, driven by factors such as the end of the US government shutdown and geopolitical risks [6]. - OPEC expects the oil market to balance in 2026 and maintains its forecast for global oil demand growth [6]. - The Simandou iron ore project has been officially put into production, with large reserves and high - grade ore [6]. Macro Finance - A shares oscillated, with the photovoltaic industry chain falling and the banking and insurance sectors rising. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to 4000.14 points, and the full - day trading volume was 1.96 trillion yuan. The strategy is to be cautious and wait [8]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the capital situation was balanced, and bond prices fluctuated slightly. Inflation showed some improvement, but the sustainability of inflation repair needs further observation. The decline in exports in October was affected by multiple factors, and the strategy is to pay attention to the rhythm of bond price increases [8][9]. Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel and iron ore prices oscillated. Steel prices at low levels led to better trading, driving up raw material prices. In the future, the industry may return to fundamental trading. From a fundamental perspective, demand for building materials is weak, while demand for coils is relatively good. Supply may decline, and iron ore may face supply - demand imbalance in the future. The mid - term strategy is to short on rallies [11][12]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Futures prices oscillated and declined. In the short term, supply may increase, and demand for steel is weak, but thermal coal prices provide some support. The price is expected to continue to oscillate and decline in the short term [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: In the medium and long term, the over - supply situation of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is difficult to improve, and the strategy is to short on rallies. In the short term, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [15]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash production decreased slightly, and prices were adjusted up in some areas. Glass prices were lowered in some regions after weak sales. The current strategy is to stay on the sidelines [15][16]. Non - Ferrous and New Materials - **Zinc**: Zinc prices were high, but the spot market had weak buying interest. The inventory showed a slight increase. It is recommended to hold short positions at high prices [18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term fundamentals are good, but there may be a price correction in the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to buy on dips [19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has no prominent supply - demand contradictions and is expected to oscillate. Polysilicon is affected by policy expectations and supply - demand contradictions and is also expected to oscillate [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Cotton prices were affected by factors such as the decline in ICE cotton prices and the supply - demand situation. There is supply pressure in the short term, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [25][26]. - **Sugar**: Global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. Domestic sugar prices are affected by import costs and domestic production. It is advisable to wait and see before the large - scale arrival of new sugar [27][28]. - **Eggs**: The egg market is in the process of capacity reduction. Spot prices may be slightly stronger, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. It is recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies [28][29]. - **Apples**: Apple prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with attention to factors such as inventory and consumption [30]. - **Corn**: Corn prices showed a short - term rebound, but there is still supply pressure. Attention should be paid to the selling pressure in November and the release of policy wheat [30][31]. - **Dates**: The spot market was weak, and the futures price was under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [32]. - **Pigs**: The pig market has supply pressure and stable demand. It is recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies [33]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices are expected to be weakly oscillating due to supply - demand imbalance. OPEC+ measures have limited support for oil prices [35]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil prices follow the trend of oil prices, with a supply - loose and demand - weak pattern. The short - term focus is on supply - side concerns after sanctions [36]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins have large supply pressure and are expected to oscillate weakly, but cost support may limit the decline [37][40]. - **Rubber**: Rubber is expected to oscillate, with a short - term strategy of going long on dips with stop - losses [41]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is advisable to short on rallies [42]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices are volatile, with large supply pressure. It is recommended to adopt a weakly oscillating strategy for near - month contracts and a long - position strategy for far - month contracts after a rebound [43][44]. - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda prices are expected to be short - term weakly bearish, but there may be support at low levels, and it is advisable to go long on dips in the medium term [45]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices are expected to have larger fluctuations, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [47]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The polyester industry chain is expected to be weakly running due to weak cost support and market sentiment [48]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: LPG has abundant supply in the long - term and may be strongly oscillating in the short - term due to the approaching peak season [49]. - **Gummed Printing Paper**: The spot market is stable, and if price increases are implemented, it is advisable to go long on dips with risk control [50]. - **Pulp**: Pulp is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to observe the digestion of old warehouse receipts and spot trading [51]. - **Logs**: Log prices are expected to be under pressure, with a supply - demand weak balance in the future [52]. - **Urea**: The urea market is affected by export factors, and it is recommended to wait and see for specific policies [53][54].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the supply, demand, cost, profit, price, and other aspects of offset printing paper. It shows that the production of offset printing paper is expected to increase slightly next week, with stable demand and inventory likely to accumulate. The cost of offset printing paper has risen due to raw material price increases, and production profit is expected to decline. If the price increase is successfully implemented, it may offset the cost increase. In the short - term, the fundamentals show no significant changes. If the price increase is implemented, appropriate long positions can be established at low prices, but risk control should be noted. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Offset Printing Paper Overview - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Domestic production in the week of 2025/11/7 was 20.80 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.20 million tons. The capacity utilization rate was 53.40%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40%. The monthly import volume was 1.10 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.79 million tons. The weekly apparent demand was 19.60 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.00 million tons. The monthly export volume was 5.60 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 million tons. Domestic demand was 84.05 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.84 million tons. Enterprise inventory, social inventory, and total spot inventory all increased, with the total inventory reaching 189.50 million tons. It is expected that the production of the double - offset paper industry will continue to increase, about 21.0 million tons next week, and the demand will remain stable, with inventory likely to accumulate [6]. - **Price**: The ex - factory delivery prices of major brands remained unchanged compared to the previous period, but were lower than the same period last year. It is reported that due to the increase in raw material prices, the intended price increase of double - offset paper is 100 yuan/ton, waiting for implementation. The market self - pick - up prices also remained unchanged compared to the previous period but were lower than the same period last year. The futures prices of OP2601 and OP2603 showed an upward trend compared to the previous period, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate or fluctuate strongly [8]. - **Spread and Basis**: The spread between ex - factory and self - pick - up prices remained stable, and the futures spread between 1 - 3 contracts was expected to remain stable. The basis of some brands was expected to weaken. Seasonally, January is a small peak season for spring teaching and auxiliary textbook tenders, and March is a traditional peak season [10]. - **Cost and Profit**: The raw material costs of major pulp types decreased compared to the same period last year but remained unchanged compared to the previous period. The total production cost decreased compared to the same period last year but remained unchanged compared to the previous period. The production profit decreased compared to the same period last year and is expected to decline mainly due to the increase in raw material prices and the difficulty in raising the price of finished products. If the price increase is successful, it may cover the cost increase [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the industrial chain, the spot price is stable, and transactions are based on rigid demand. In the short - term, the fundamentals show no significant changes. If the price increase is implemented, appropriate long positions can be established at low prices, but risk control should be noted [14]. Part 2: Offset Printing Paper Balance Sheet The balance sheet shows the monthly supply, demand, inventory, and other data of double - offset paper from 2024 to 2025. In 2025, the cumulative import volume, production, total supply, domestic demand, total demand, etc. showed different trends compared to 2024. For example, in January 2025, the cumulative import volume decreased by 18.05% year - on - year, and the production decreased by 10.87% year - on - year [16]. Part 3: Offset Printing Paper Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - Production Situation**: In 2025, a total of 140 million tons of cultural paper production capacity has been put into operation, and 225 million tons are yet to be put into operation, mostly in the third quarter. In 2026, the planned production capacity to be put into operation is 120 - 140 million tons. Major companies such as Nine Dragons Paper, Chenming Paper, and Sun Paper have new production capacity plans or capacity resumption plans [18]. Part 4: Offset Printing Paper Cost - Profit - **Raw Material Cost**: The raw material costs of major pulp types such as Ural Needle, Moon, and Goldfish decreased compared to the same period last year but remained unchanged compared to the previous period [12]. - **Profit**: The production profit decreased compared to the same period last year and is expected to decline mainly due to the increase in raw material prices and the difficulty in raising the price of finished products. If the price increase is successful, it may cover the cost increase [12]. Part 5: Offset Printing Paper Price and Spread Analysis - **Spot Quotation**: The ex - factory delivery prices and market self - pick - up prices of major brands remained unchanged compared to the previous period but were lower than the same period last year. It is reported that due to the increase in raw material prices, the intended price increase of double - offset paper is 100 yuan/ton, waiting for implementation [8]. - **Futures - Spot Basis**: The basis of some brands is expected to weaken [10]. - **OP Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - Month Spread**: Seasonally, January is a small peak season for spring teaching and auxiliary textbook tenders, and March is a traditional peak season. The futures spread between 1 - 3 contracts is expected to remain stable [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the supply, demand, cost, profit, price, and spread of logs. It indicates that the supply - side pressure is decreasing, the demand remains weak with the approaching off - season and wood blue - stain period. The price is under pressure, and the market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance in the future [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Log Overview - **Supply - side**: In September 2025, the number of arriving ships was 16, and the arrival volume was 53.1 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs was about 200.13 million cubic meters, a 16.01% month - on - month increase. It is expected that the subsequent arrival will remain stable, and the supply - side pressure will decrease [7]. - **Demand and Inventory - side**: The weekly shipment volume and apparent demand show no significant improvement. The demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to fluctuate and adjust due to the weak demand despite the decrease in arrivals this week [9]. - **Price and Spread**: The outer - market quotation has a slight adjustment, the spot price is under pressure, and the wood - block price is stable. The spread is relatively stable, and the basis has certain support [11][13]. - **Cost and Profit**: The import cost of logs is expected to decline, and the import profit is decreasing [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The spot market price is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of the futures market are weakly oscillating, and it is expected to be under pressure in the short term [17]. 3.2 Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The report presents the weekly balance sheet of logs from June 6, 2025, to November 7, 2025, including arrival numbers, arrival volumes, daily shipment volumes, apparent demand, inventory by region and species, and the supply - demand difference [19]. 3.3 Part 3: Log Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: It includes the shipment volume of New Zealand logs, log imports, and imports by species [25][27][30]. - **Demand - side**: It involves the daily shipment volume of logs, the real - estate market, and downstream analysis such as wood - block price, profit, and downstream substitutes [34][36][41]. - **Inventory - side**: It includes inventory summaries, inventory by species, and inventory by region [58][60][66]. 3.4 Part 4: Cost and Profit - **Log Import Cost and Profit**: Analyzes the import cost and profit of logs [72]. - **Log Delivery Profit**: Analyzes the delivery profit of logs [77]. 3.5 Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis - **Log Outer - market Quotation**: Analyzes the outer - market quotation of logs [82]. - **Seasonality of Radiation Pine and Spruce Prices**: Presents the seasonal price trends of radiation pine and spruce [85]. - **Seasonality of Radiation Pine and Spruce Spreads**: Analyzes the seasonal spread trends of radiation pine and spruce [98]. - **Basis between Radiation Pine and LG**: Analyzes the basis between radiation pine and LG [104]. - **Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread of LG Main Contracts**: Presents the seasonal chart and inter - month spread of LG main contracts [106].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors including macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events. Different commodities show diverse trends based on their specific fundamentals [6][13][33]. - For macro - finance, the stock market is in a weak adjustment state, and the bond market has upward potential due to the expected implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [10][11]. - In the black commodity market, the prices of steel and related raw materials are likely to remain weak in the medium - term, especially during the winter [13]. - For agricultural products, the prices of different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, production forecasts, and market expectations [24][27]. - In the energy - chemical sector, the supply - demand imbalance in the oil market persists, and the prices of related products are expected to be volatile [33]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - Information - The US will suspend the implementation of the export control penetration rule from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce views this as an important measure to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur [6]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the importance of observing financial aggregates through indicators like social financing scale and money supply [6]. - Mexico delays increasing tariffs on Chinese goods, and the EU considers removing Huawei and ZTE equipment. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs urges the EU to provide a fair business environment [7]. - The US Senate passes the "Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act" to end the government shutdown, and the House of Representatives will vote on it [7]. - The US "small non - farm" data shows a significant decline in private - sector employment, which is the largest monthly decline since March 2023 [8]. Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a wait - and - see strategy with a view of market oscillation. The A - share market is weakly sorted, and the inflation repair's sustainability needs further observation. The trade data in October shows a decline in export growth [10]. Bond Futures - Bonds still have upward momentum as the moderately loose monetary policy is expected to be implemented. The capital market has shifted from tight to loose, and interest rates are stable [11]. Black Commodities Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - In the medium - term, the black commodity market is likely to remain bearish. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is stable but lacks elasticity. The supply of steel mills may decrease, and the probability of negative feedback is increasing. Iron ore prices are expected to decline due to the expected increase in supply [13]. Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to decline in the short - term. The supply of coking coal may increase during the heating season, and the demand for steel is weak in the off - season, but the price of thermal coal provides some support [15]. Ferroalloys - In the long - term, the surplus situation of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is difficult to reverse. In the short - term, a bearish strategy is recommended, but pay attention to cost changes [16]. Soda Ash and Glass - Currently, a wait - and - see approach is recommended. The production of soda ash has slightly decreased, and the cost has increased. The sales of glass have weakened, and the market is concerned about demand and inventory [17][18]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals are good, but the price may decline in the first quarter of next year. There are opportunities for buying on dips [20]. Industrial Silicon - The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range. There is a certain pressure on supply in the near - term, but the supply may decrease during the dry season [21]. Polysilicon - The price is expected to oscillate weakly. The negative feedback of demand is deepening, and the market is waiting for policy expectations from industry meetings [22]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The price is expected to oscillate at a low level due to increased supply pressure and weak demand. Pay attention to the agricultural reports from the US Department of Agriculture [24]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is expected to be bearish in the long - term due to the expected increase in supply and the decrease in demand. In the short - term, the price is supported by cost and inventory [26][27]. Eggs - The futures market is strong due to the expectation of "capacity reduction", but the spot market is stable, which may drag down the near - term futures contracts. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. Apples - The price is expected to oscillate strongly. The inventory is low, and the price is relatively high. Pay attention to consumption trends [30]. Corn - Pay attention to the upward pressure on the price. The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure still exists, and the impact of policy - based wheat release needs to be monitored [31]. Red Dates - A wait - and - see approach is recommended. The weakening of the spot market in the sales area has a negative impact on the price [32]. Pigs - The supply pressure continues, and the demand is stable. A bearish strategy is recommended for near - term contracts [32]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The price is expected to oscillate. The supply - demand imbalance is expected to persist in the long - term, and the measures of OPEC+ to slow down production increase have limited support for the price [33]. Fuel Oil - The price will follow the trend of crude oil. The supply is abundant, and the demand is stable. The market is concerned about the supply impact of sanctions on Russia [35]. Plastic - The price is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply pressure is large, but the cost provides some support [36]. Rubber - The price may oscillate slightly stronger in the short - term. Pay attention to the spread between RU and NR and the selling of call options [37]. Synthetic Rubber - The price has stopped falling in the short - term. It is recommended to sell call options after the price rebounds [38]. Caustic Soda - A short - term bearish strategy is recommended, but the downward space is limited. Consider buying at low prices in the medium - term [39]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase after continuous decline. The focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [40][41]. Polyester Industry Chain - The price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Pay attention to unexpected changes in device operation [42]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price is expected to be strong in the short - term due to the approaching peak demand season, but bearish in the long - term due to abundant supply [42]. Pulp - The price is expected to oscillate widely. The fundamentals are stable, but the upward space is limited [44]. Logs - The price is expected to be under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the market is in the off - season [44]. Urea - A bearish strategy is recommended. The spot price has declined, and the futures price has also decreased [45][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lifting of liquidity concerns has led to a warming of market sentiment, and the expectation of loose liquidity will open up an upward space for copper prices again. After the decline in copper prices, social inventories have decreased, but insufficient recovery in downstream demand restricts the short - term upward space for copper prices. The expectation of copper ore shortage still benefits copper prices in the medium - to - long term. In the long run, the narrative of copper ore shortage will return. Recently, market risk appetite has improved, but there are still uncertainties in the macro - aspect, and insufficient recovery in downstream demand will cause short - term copper prices to mainly fluctuate and adjust. After the macro - narrative stabilizes, the strategy is to buy on dips when copper prices are in a volatile state [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Part 01: Weekly Review - **Supply - side Data**: From November 3 - 7, 2025, the spot TC of copper concentrate increased by 0.26% week - on - week to - 42.04 dollars/ton due to the shutdown of PT Amman smelter and the increase in short - term copper concentrate circulation. The refined - scrap copper price spread narrowed by 17.05% to 3315 yuan/ton as copper prices fell and scrap copper traders' willingness to sell decreased. The southern crude copper processing fee increased by 9.09% to 1200 yuan/ton as some enterprises switched to anode plate production. The operating rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, and wire and cable all increased, with increases of 2.55%, 20.92%, and 4.36% respectively, due to the decline in copper prices stimulating downstream demand [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The global visible inventory increased by 5.23% to 75.97 million tons, mainly due to the increase in COMEX and LME inventories. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 2.10% to 19.59 million tons as downstream purchasing increased. The bonded area inventory decreased slightly by 0.34% to 8.82 million tons, with overall balanced supply and demand. The SHFE copper inventory increased by 344.36% to 124.42 million tons, and the LME copper inventory increased by 2.00% to 13.63 million tons due to previous exports [8]. - **Profit Data**: The spot and long - term comprehensive smelting profits decreased by 1.11% and 24.21% respectively, with the short - term loss intensifying. The import profit increased by 30.59% to - 540 yuan/ton [8]. - **Macro and Strategy**: The US government shutdown caused liquidity concerns, but the recent agreement to end the shutdown has lifted these concerns, warming market sentiment. Fundamentally, short - term copper price increases are restricted by insufficient downstream demand recovery, while long - term copper prices are supported by the expectation of copper ore shortage. The short - term strategy is for copper prices to fluctuate, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. 3.2 Part 02: Copper Industry Chain Analysis - **Price and Spread**: The report presents data on SMM1 electrolytic copper premiums and discounts, the spread between the current and three - month contracts of Shanghai copper, the price of sulfuric acid, and the closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract, as well as the Shanghai - London ratio and related spreads [13][16][19]. - **Cost and Profit**: It shows the comprehensive profit of electrolytic copper (including by - product sulfuric acid), spot and long - term, as well as the import and export profits of copper [20][21][23]. - **Supply**: It includes data on copper concentrate production in Chile and Peru, copper concentrate imports, electrolytic copper production, imports, and total supply [27][31]. - **Demand**: It covers the demand from various sectors such as copper rods, wire and cable, power grids, air conditioners, copper strips, automobiles, and real estate, including operating rates, inventory levels, and production and sales data [33][35][44][46][52][55]. - **Inventory**: Data on various copper inventories, including Chinese electrolytic copper social inventory, SHFE copper inventory warrants, COMEX and LME electrolytic copper inventories, and global refined copper inventory, are provided [60]. 3.3 Part 03: Capital Position - The CFTC non - commercial long - position ratio is 32% and shows a strengthening trend recently. The LME investment fund net long - position is 36768.23 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 1814.84 lots [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, trend - bearish varieties include zinc; shock - bearish varieties include egg, plastic, methanol; shock varieties include soda ash, glass, asphalt, etc.; shock - bullish varieties include lithium carbonate, apple; trend - bullish varieties are not mentioned [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, bearish varieties include corn, PTA, glass, etc.; shock varieties include coking coal, hot - rolled coil, etc.; bullish varieties include methanol, palm oil, rapeseed oil, etc. [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro News - The US suspends the 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding and other industries for one year. China suspends the special port fees for US ships and anti - countermeasures against 5 US subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. for one year. China adds the US, Mexico, and Canada to the export control list of precursor chemicals [6]. - The US Senate passes a temporary appropriation bill to end the government shutdown, but the final vote time is not arranged, and the bill still needs to be voted by the House of Representatives. The US government shutdown may end before this weekend [6]. - The State Council issues measures to promote private investment, including encouraging private capital to participate in the construction and operation of small - scale urban infrastructure projects [6]. - The Asset Management Association solicits opinions on the management guidelines for the investment style of public - offering theme funds to regulate style drift [7]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation issues compliance tips for the "Double Eleven" online promotion, banning illegal acts such as "big data price discrimination" [7]. - The US and Thailand reach a reciprocal trade framework agreement. Thailand cancels 99% of tariff barriers, and the US maintains a 19% reciprocal tariff [7]. - Switzerland is close to reaching an agreement with the US to reduce tariffs on Swiss goods to 15% [7]. - Fed Governor Milan supports further interest rate cuts. San Francisco Fed President Daly suggests discussing further rate cuts with an "open mind" [8]. - In October, US container imports were 2.31 million TEU, down 7.5% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month. November and December imports are expected to decline [8]. - The new Japanese government asks the central bank to postpone interest rate hikes until at least January next year, but the central bank may raise rates as early as December [8]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a shock - rising strategy and pay attention to the style switch between IH and IC. The A - share market shows differentiation, with inflation data better than expected and export decline affected by high - base and holiday factors [10][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - Monetary policy implementation is in the realization period, and bonds still have upward momentum. Pay attention to the rhythm. The market digests inflation data, and bonds show a strong trend. The decline in exports is affected by multiple factors, and moderately loose monetary policy should be implemented [12]. Black Steel and Iron Ore - In the short term, the black market will be in shock consolidation, and in the medium term (winter), it will maintain a short - on - rallies strategy. Policy events are basically settled, and the industry will return to fundamentals. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for coils is okay. Steel mills' profits are low, and iron ore and other raw material prices are weak [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the impact of mine inspections and downstream molten iron output. In the short term, molten iron output may decline, and coking coal supply is restricted. However, weak steel demand in the off - season and potential negative feedback will limit price increases [16][17]. Ferroalloys - In the long - term, the oversupply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is difficult to ease. Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy. In the short - term, also take a short - on - rallies approach, but be cautious due to the firm performance of manganese ore and rising lanthanum charcoal prices [18]. Soda Ash and Glass - Currently, adopt a wait - and - see strategy. Glass prices are weak, and soda ash prices are strong. Glass enterprises reduce prices after poor sales, and some soda ash plants raise prices due to cost increases and production cuts [19]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Hold short positions at high levels. Domestic zinc inventories slightly increase, and zinc prices are high due to inventory fluctuations and macro - positive factors. Downstream demand is cautious, and spot trading is mainly among traders [21]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the fundamentals are good, but there is an expectation of weakening demand in Q1 next year. After the price correction, consider buying on dips [21]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has no prominent supply - demand contradiction and will fluctuate within a range. Polysilicon's price is supported by spot prices, and its upper limit depends on capacity merger policies. It will also fluctuate within a narrow range [24]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton prices will fluctuate at a low level. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The end of the US government shutdown is beneficial for market confidence. Pay attention to USDA reports [28]. Sugar - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure from supply expectations but supported by production costs. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy before new sugar supply increases significantly. Global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus [30]. Eggs - Egg futures are strong due to "capacity reduction" expectations, but the premium over spot may limit the upside. Spot prices may be strong in November but with limited upside. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short near - month contracts [33]. Apples - Apple prices will fluctuate strongly. The apple storage season is nearly over, and inventory is lower than last year. Pay attention to price trends and post - storage sales [35]. Corn - Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the upside pressure on the futures. Corn prices have rebounded, but supply pressure is still accumulating. Pay attention to new - grain sales progress and wheat policy [36]. Red Dates - Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. Weak spot sales in the distribution area drag down new - jujube ordering prices, and the futures fluctuate [38]. Pigs - Supply pressure continues, and demand is average. Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy for near - month contracts and control positions. Supply is high, and short - term sales pressure remains [38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate. EIA inventories are increasing, and there is an expectation of supply surplus in Q1 next year. OPEC+ slows down production increases, but the long - term supply - demand imbalance remains [41]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices. Supply is loose, and demand is weak. The focus is on supply concerns after sanctions on Russia [43]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to fluctuate weakly due to supply pressure, but production losses may provide some support [44]. Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger. Consider going long on dips with stop - losses. Pay attention to the spread between RU and NR [45]. Synthetic Rubber - Be cautious about going long on synthetic rubber. It may continue to fluctuate weakly due to raw material drag. Pay attention to downstream procurement and macro - sentiment [46]. Methanol - Methanol prices fluctuate greatly. Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy for near - month contracts and wait for a long - entry opportunity for far - month contracts after a rebound driver appears [47]. Caustic Soda - Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy for caustic soda and consider going long on dips. Spot prices are stable, and futures prices are affected by coking coal prices [49]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices are expected to have a larger fluctuation range. The focus is on the price bottom after winter - storage games. Crude oil prices are stable, and asphalt demand is entering the end - stage [50]. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is expected to be strong in the short - term. Pay attention to unexpected device changes. PX supply is stable, PTA supply pressure may ease, and ethylene glycol inventory is high [51]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - In the long - term, adopt a short strategy for LPG. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate strongly due to the approaching peak demand season [53]. Pulp - Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for pulp. Fundamentals are stable, and the upside space is limited [53]. Logs - Log prices are expected to be under pressure. Fundamentals are weakly balanced, and inventory is expected to increase [54]. Urea - Operate according to policies and pay attention to basis pressure. Adopt a wide - range fluctuation strategy. Spot prices are rising, but the follow - up power is insufficient [54].