1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Fundamental - based Judgments - **Trend空头**: Carbonate lithium, zinc, caustic soda, plastic, ferromanganese - silicon, live pigs, ferrosilicon, SSE 50 stock index futures, five - year treasury bond futures, CSI 300 stock index futures, CSI 1000 index futures, CSI 500 stock index futures, corn, eggs, urea, methanol, pulp, logs, offset printing paper, red dates, coking coal, soda ash, glass, apples, coke [2] - **Oscillating偏空**: Ethylene glycol, crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, industrial silicon, thirty - year treasury bond futures, ten - year treasury bond futures, two - year treasury bond futures, synthetic rubber [2] - **Oscillating**: Lead, zinc, aluminum, tin, copper, palm oil, plastic, rebar, corn, glass, PVC, soybean No.1, asphalt, gold, coking coal, polypropylene, ferromanganese - silicon, silver, Zhengzhou cotton [2][4] - **Oscillating偏多**: Rubber, polysilicon, bottle chips, PTA, staple fiber, p - xylene, fuel oil, cotton, cotton yarn [2] - **Trend多头**: None Quant - based Judgments - **偏空**: Rapeseed meal, sugar, PTA, methanol, lead, rubber, coke [4] - **Oscillating**: Zinc, palm oil, plastic, aluminum, rebar, tin, copper, soybean No.2, glass, PVC, soybean No.1, asphalt, gold, coking coal, polypropylene, ferromanganese - silicon, silver, Zhengzhou cotton [4] - **偏多**: Soybean meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, iron ore, eggs, corn starch, hot - rolled coil [4] 3. Key Points by Directory Macro News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to study and deploy the work on improving Party conduct, building a clean government and combating corruption in 2026, emphasizing anti - corruption and enhancing the comprehensive effectiveness of corruption governance [6] - On December 25, the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above the "7" mark, and the on - shore RMB approached "7". The RMB is expected to appreciate in 2026 without a unilateral trend [6] - JD announced its 2025 year - end bonus plan, with 92% of employees getting full or excess bonuses, and the total bonus input increasing by over 70% year - on - year. There are also rumors of salary increases at BYD, ByteDance, and CATL [6] - The Ministry of Commerce opposed the US imposing 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products, promoted compliant rare - earth magnet exports, and hoped for a balanced solution for TikTok's agreement with investors [7] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange approved the IPO application of Dapu Micro, the first unprofitable company on the Growth Enterprise Market to pass the review [7] - Israeli officials signaled a possible military conflict with Iran over Iran's efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile arsenal [7] - Morgan Stanley strategists pointed out three potential "surprises" in the US stock market in 2026: "job - less productivity improvement", the return of the inverse relationship between stocks and bonds, and a sharp rise in commodity and energy prices [7] Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.3%. The market turnover was 1.94 trillion yuan [9] - The central bank's MLF operation had a net injection of 100 billion yuan, and if bond purchases reached 350 billion yuan this month, it would be the largest - scale operation. The urgency for interest - rate cuts is low [9] - Pay attention to the sustainability of liquidity repair and structure. If the conditions are met, the index may strengthen, and focus on IH [9] Treasury Bond Futures - The short - and medium - term bonds may oscillate strongly, but the odds are more important than the direction. The capital is balanced and loose, and the capital interest rates are stable [10] - The central bank's MLF operation had a net injection of 100 billion yuan. Without interest - rate cuts, the market sentiment may decline, and bonds within 10 years will oscillate [10] Black Commodities Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and rise in the short term. Pay attention to the production at coal mines, safety inspections, downstream raw - material winter storage, and changes in hot - metal production [12] - The production of coal mines has decreased slightly, and the third round of coke price cuts has been implemented. The demand for raw materials from steel mills has declined in the short term [12] - Due to "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection" policies, the supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, but the potential negative feedback from the steel industry may limit the price increase [12] Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, the end - of - session rally may stimulate hedging, and the sustainability of high prices needs attention. Manganese - silicon is weak, and focus on the new capacity launch before the end of January. In the medium term, both are bearish on rallies [13] - On December 25, the auction price of Hongliulin lump coal increased, with a decrease in the auction volume [13] Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [14] - Soda ash supply is at a low level due to some enterprises' maintenance, and cost increases have weakened the upstream's willingness to start production. Glass supply reduction expectations have less impact, and spot sentiment is weak [14] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - As of December 25, the domestic zinc inventory decreased. Tianjin and Guangdong saw inventory declines. After the fading of macro - positive factors, the price is expected to oscillate downward. Hold short positions [16] - In November 2025, the import of zinc concentrates increased significantly, with a year - on - year increase of 13.84% and a cumulative increase of 33.74% from January to November [16][17] Lead - As of December 25, the social inventory of lead decreased. The trading activity in the lead spot market declined. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. Wait and see, and aggressive investors can enter short positions at high prices [18][19] Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals are showing signs of weakening in the short term, but the long - term demand is positive. Look for buying opportunities after the price correction [20] Industrial Silicon - Environmental disturbances in Xinjiang and strong coking - coal prices have provided some valuation - repair space, but the rebound is under pressure. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options on rallies [21] Polysilicon - Exchange risk - control measures have tightened, and the trading volume may cool down. The expected price increase of downstream silicon wafers will support the spot price of polysilicon, and the price is expected to be strong [22] Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The pre - festival restocking demand has boosted the cotton price. The US cotton production and inventory have increased, while the global production has slightly decreased [23][24] - The domestic commercial and port inventories are accumulating, but the low industrial inventory of textile enterprises and policy expectations support the price [24] Sugar - The domestic sugar market is in a season of high supply and demand, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures are undervalued, with a technical rebound. Wait and see [25] - The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in 2025/26, but some institutions have lowered the surplus forecast. The domestic supply pressure is increasing, and the demand for pre - holiday stocking will start [26][27] Eggs - The commodity market sentiment is strong, and the pre - January festival stocking demand may increase, leading to short - covering in the near - term contracts and a price rebound. The supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the price increase space is limited before the Spring Festival [28] - The far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of a possible decline in the laying - hen inventory, but this expectation cannot be verified or falsified for now. Wait and see [28][29] Apples - The apple futures price may oscillate. The apple出库 is slightly lower than the same period last year, and the sales in the distribution areas are slow. The good - quality apple price is firm [30][31] - The national cold - storage inventory ratio is 53.31%, and the inventory is 7.021 million tons, lower than the same period last year. Citrus fruits are on the market, affecting apple sales [31] Corn - The corn price may oscillate in the short term. Wait and see and pay attention to farmers' selling sentiment [33] - The domestic corn spot price is mixed. The supply - demand mismatch is easing, but the far - term contracts face pressure from supply [33] Red Dates - The market is in a stage of concentrated new - product arrival, with supply pressure. The price may oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to the sales progress in the distribution areas and downstream purchasing sentiment [34] Live Pigs - The supply - demand pattern is still supply - strong and demand - weak. The expectation of a sharp price increase during the Winter Solstice was false, and the price is expected to oscillate downward. Go short on the near - term contracts on rallies [34][35] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The escalating situation in Venezuela has led to a rapid rebound in oil prices, but the impact is limited. In the medium term, the oil price may decline due to oversupply and the easing of geopolitical tensions [37] - The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2602 contract rose to 444.7 yuan/barrel at night [37] Fuel Oil - Geopolitical and macro - factors dominate the oil price. The supply of fuel oil is loose, and the demand is weak. The price will follow the oil price, and the inventory is increasing [38] Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure and weak downstream demand, but the upstream losses may provide some support. The price is expected to oscillate [39] Synthetic Rubber - Continue to focus on the strategy of buying RU and selling BR. The butadiene inventory has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but may not maintain high prices [40] Methanol - The current supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly, and the inventory is gradually decreasing. Do not be overly bearish in the short term. Consider a slightly long - biased allocation for the far - term contracts after the inventory reduction is smooth [41][42] Caustic Soda - The near - term contracts of caustic soda are close to the real - world situation and are relatively weak, while the far - term contracts have many macro - positive expectations. Keep a bearish view on the main 03 contract [43] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to have a larger fluctuation range. The focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [44] Polyester Industry Chain - The market benefits have been gradually realized, and the downstream negative feedback is increasing. Consider reducing long positions on rallies [44] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG futures price has entered the delivery logic. The supply is abundant globally, and the demand has both supporting and constraining factors. The price is expected to oscillate [47] Pulp - The pulp port inventory has decreased continuously, and the spot price is firm. The market sentiment has improved, but there may be hedging pressure. Wait and see in the short term [48] Logs - The log market fundamentals are oscillating, and the spot price has stabilized. The market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance [49] Urea - The urea market is expected to oscillate. The upstream production reduction is positive for the market. Pay attention to the basis pressure when the futures expectations are too strong [50]

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交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 12 月 25 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/12/25 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 硅铁 | 燃油 | 橡胶 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 锰硅 | 二债 | 碳酸锂 | | | | | | 工业硅 | 沥青 | | | 0531-81678626 | | | 十债 | 上证50股指期货 | | | 客服电话： | | | 三十债 | 甲醇 | | | 400-618-6767 | | | 液化石油气 | | | | | | | 原油 | | | | 公司网址： | | | 多晶硅 | | | | www.ztqh.com | | | 五债 | | | | | | | 棉花 | | | | | | | 白糖 | | | | | ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Based on fundamental analysis, different futures varieties are classified into different trends such as trend空头, 震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and 趋势多头 [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, futures varieties are classified into 偏空, 震荡, and 偏多 trends [6]. - The overall A - share market showed an upward trend with increased trading volume, but the 12 - month economic data may still be weak, and the overseas data has some uncertainties. The stock index continued to rebound, and attention should be paid to its sustainability [8][9]. - The short - and medium - term bonds may fluctuate moderately upward, but the odds are more important than the direction. Without interest rate cuts, the sentiment in the market may decline [10]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a bearish view on rallies in the medium and long term. The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate upward in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. The silicon alloys should be considered bearish on rallies in the medium term [11][13][15]. - For soda ash, the strategy is to wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [16]. - The price of Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate downward after the macro - positive factors fade. The price of Shanghai lead is expected to maintain a low - inventory level, and the previous short positions are recommended to continue to be held. The price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely in the long - term, with a short - term weakening demand and possible short - term correction [18][19]. - For industrial silicon, there is a possibility of partial valuation repair; for polysilicon, the spot price is expected to remain strong [21]. - For cotton, short - term long positions need to be cautious. For sugar, it is advisable to wait and see. For eggs, the contracts after the Spring Festival are under pressure, and the far - month contracts have support. For apples, the price will fluctuate. For corn, it is advisable to go short on the 03 contract and control the position or choose the 3 - 7 reverse spread. For red dates, the market will fluctuate. For live pigs, the spot price is expected to fluctuate downward, and it is advisable to go short on the near - month contracts [23][26][28][30][31][32][33]. - For crude oil, it needs to be vigilant against the price increase caused by the further escalation of the Venezuelan situation in the short term. For fuel oil, the price will follow the oil price. For plastics, it is advisable to consider a weakening and fluctuating trend. For rubber, the short - term strategy of shorting the ru - nr spread should stop profit and wait and see. For synthetic rubber, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term. For methanol, the near - month contracts may have a slight rebound, and the far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after the inventory is smoothly reduced. For caustic soda, avoid long positions in the near - month contracts and hold long positions in the main contract dynamically. For asphalt, the price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. For the polyester industry chain, it is advisable to go long lightly at low prices. For liquefied petroleum gas, the price will fluctuate. For pulp, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term. For logs, the price will fluctuate. For urea, it is advisable to maintain a fluctuating view [34][36][37][38][39][41][42][43][45][46][47]. Summary by Directory Futures Trend Based on Fundamental Analysis - Trend空头: Ethylene glycol, lithium carbonate, manganese silicon, silicon iron, live pigs, eggs, plastic [2]. - 震荡偏空: Liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, polycrystalline silicon [2]. - 震荡: Short - fiber, bottle - piece, p - xylene, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Stock Index Futures, ten - year bond, five - year bond, thirty - year bond, CSI 300 Stock Index Futures, CSI 1000 Index Futures, CSI 500 Stock Index Futures, two - year bond, cotton, zinc, synthetic rubber, rubber, log, pulp, caustic soda, offset printing paper, corn, red dates, urea, apple, rebar, iron ore, hot - rolled coil, glass, soda ash [2]. - 震荡偏多: None provided in the given content. - 趋势多头: None provided in the given content. Futures Trend Based on Quantitative Indicators - 偏空: Coke, PTA, Zhengzhou cotton, glass, manganese silicon, PVC, Shanghai silver [6]. - 震荡: Rebar, plastic, hot - rolled coil, palm oil, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai aluminum, Shanghai copper, corn starch, soybean No. 2, soybean No. 1, Shanghai lead, rubber, polypropylene, Shanghai tin, asphalt, methanol, corn, Shanghai gold, coking coal [6]. - 偏多: Rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, iron ore, eggs, sugar, soybean oil [6]. Macro News - The central bank launched a one - time credit repair policy for small - amount overdue personal information. - Vanke's 2 billion yuan bond extension plan was rejected again. - The State Council held a meeting on the preparation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" outline. - Precious metals prices soared, and Wall Street was optimistic about the continued rise of gold prices. - China's December LPR remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. - The Central Economic Work Conference deployed multiple key - area reform tasks. - BYD confirmed the salary increase for R & D staff. - The Ukrainian delegation completed negotiations with the US and returned to Ukraine. - Trump will appoint a new Fed chairman in early January next year. - The Trump administration increased the cash subsidy for illegal immigrants' voluntary departure. - The EU extended economic sanctions against Russia for six months. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange took measures to cool down the silver futures market [8]. Macro - Financial Market Stock Index Futures - The A - share market rose with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69% to 3917.36, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.23%. The trading volume was 1.88 trillion yuan, a net increase of 130 billion yuan from the previous day. The 12 - month economic data may be weak, and the overseas data has uncertainties. The stock index continued to rebound, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the liquidity repair and the structure. If it is realized, the index may strengthen, and attention should be paid to IH [8][9]. Treasury Bond Futures - The funds were moderately loose, and the short - and medium - term bonds may fluctuate moderately upward, but the odds are more important than the direction. Without interest rate cuts, the market sentiment may decline. The 10 - year - and - below bonds are mainly supported by the decline of the funds' central level, and the ultra - long - term bonds are relatively weak. The curve is continuously steep. It is advisable to observe the MLF renewal operation and bond - buying logic first [10]. Black Market Steel and Ore - Policy: The Central Economic Work Conference met market expectations but had no new policies. The supply - side should pay attention to the deployment of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology at the end of December. - Fundamentals: The demand for building materials was weak, and there was an expectation of further decline in the off - season. The demand for coils was good, and the apparent demand was acceptable. The steel mills' profits were at a low level, and the iron - water output was expected to continue to decline. The inventory of five major steel products decreased month - on - month but remained high compared with last year. - Valuation: The raw - material futures prices were fluctuating weakly, and the cost was expected to continue to decrease. - Trend: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a bearish view on rallies in the medium and long term [10][11]. Coking Coal and Coke - The price may fluctuate upward in the short term, but it is necessary to pay attention to the disturbances from coal - mine production, safety inspections, and the downstream winter - storage progress and iron - water output changes. In the medium term, the domestic mine's production rate is restricted by policies. In the short term, the coal supply has a contraction expectation, and the potential negative feedback from the weakening steel demand restricts the price increase. The inventory of upstream enterprises has increased, and the downstream replenishment is slow. The price may have a phased rebound, but the space is limited [13][14]. Ferroalloys - The hedging pressure of silicon alloys increases with the rising price. For manganese silicon, the cost is expected to decrease by about 25 yuan/ton. In the short term, pay attention to the possibility of the resumption of silicon - iron plants and the new - capacity launch of manganese silicon. In the medium term, both silicon alloys should be considered bearish on rallies [15]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash: Some production - reduction enterprises have resumed production, but the supply may be affected by cost and new - capacity launch. It is advisable to wait and see. - Glass: There is an expectation of production reduction, but the impact on the market is gradually weakening. It is advisable to try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Shanghai Zinc - As of December 22, the domestic zinc inventory increased. The price is expected to fluctuate downward after the macro - positive factors fade. It is advisable to hold short positions [18]. Shanghai Lead - As of December 22, the lead inventory decreased. It is expected to maintain a low - inventory level. It is advisable to continue to hold short positions [18][19]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term demand is weakening. It may have a short - term correction after the market sentiment returns to rationality, but it will rise in the long - term and fluctuate widely [19][20]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: It is difficult to see production reduction in the short term, but there is a possibility of partial valuation repair. It may gradually shift to the game of polysilicon production - reduction expectations. - Polysilicon: The new delivery warehouses may put pressure on the near - month contracts in the short term. The spot price is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to the manufacturers' trading willingness [21]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, and the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The short - term long positions need to be cautious [23][24][25]. Sugar - The domestic and international sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. The new - sugar listing pressure will suppress the price. The Zhengzhou sugar price is undervalued. It is advisable to wait and see [26][27]. Eggs - The spot price has not risen as expected recently. The contracts after the Spring Festival are under pressure, and the far - month contracts have support. It is advisable to wait and see [28][29]. Apples - The apple delivery is slightly less year - on - year, the sales in the distribution area are slow, and the price of high - quality goods is firm. The price will fluctuate [30][31]. Corn - It is advisable to go short on the 03 contract and control the position or choose the 3 - 7 reverse spread. The supply - and - demand mismatch is being alleviated, and the far - month contracts are under supply pressure [31]. Red Dates - The market is in the digestion stage of new - product arrival, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream sales and procurement [32]. Live Pigs - The supply - exceeds - demand situation remains unchanged. The spot price is expected to fluctuate downward. It is advisable to go short on the near - month contracts and control the position [33]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - The situation in Venezuela has led to a rapid rebound in oil prices. In the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant against the price increase caused by the further escalation of the situation. In the medium - term, the oil price is under pressure due to the new supply wave and weakening demand [34][35]. Fuel Oil - The price is affected by geopolitics and the macro - environment. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The price will follow the oil price [36]. Plastics - The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. The price may fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to consider a weakening and fluctuating trend [37]. Rubber - The short - term strategy of shorting the ru - nr spread should stop profit and wait and see. It is advisable to go long on dips with a stop - loss [37][38]. Synthetic Rubber - It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and be cautious about chasing up or down. The price is affected by raw - material prices, downstream procurement, and funds [39]. Methanol - The supply and demand situation has improved slightly, and the inventory has started to decrease. The near - month contracts may have a slight rebound, and the far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after the inventory is smoothly reduced [39][40]. Caustic Soda - The near - month contracts should avoid long positions, and the long positions in the main contract should be held dynamically. The price is affected by the spot market and the overall commodity market [41]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The raw - material supply is affected by geopolitics [42]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is advisable to go long lightly at low prices. The PX price is expected to be strong, the PTA price follows the cost, the ethylene glycol price is relatively weak, and the short - fiber price has limited follow - up power [43]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price will fluctuate. The supply in the Middle East is tight, but the overall supply is abundant. The demand in winter is strong, but the chemical - industry pressure is high [43][44]. Pulp - The fundamentals are improving, and the price is pushed up by funds. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term and consider option - selling strategies for high - cost positions [45]. Logs - The fundamentals are in a weak balance, and the price will fluctuate. The import volume has increased, and the external market price has a downward trend [46]. Urea - It is advisable to maintain a fluctuating view. The spot market is affected by coal prices and environmental protection policies. The futures market is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the demand recovery after the end of environmental protection restrictions [47].

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides trend judgments and investment suggestions for various futures products based on fundamental and quantitative indicators, and summarizes macro - financial news and market conditions of different industries. It analyzes the supply - demand relationship, price trends, and influencing factors of each product, and gives corresponding trading strategies [2][7][9][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental - based Trend Judgment - **Trend空头**: Carbonate lithium [2] - **Oscillating偏空**: Synthetic rubber, lead, etc. [2] - **Oscillating**: Ethylene glycol, zinc, etc. [2] - **Oscillating偏多**: Pulp, short - fiber, etc. [2] 2. Quantitative Indicator - based Trend Judgment - **偏空**: Zhengzhou cotton, PTA, etc. [7] - **Oscillating**: Rebar, plastic, etc. [7] - **偏多**: Rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, etc. [7] 3. Macro - news - **Regulatory actions**: The National Internet Information Office and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have cracked down on false information in the capital market, and punished accounts spreading rumors and illegally recommending stocks [9]. - **Stock market**: Pingtan Development's stock price fluctuated greatly on December 19th [9]. - **International central bank policies**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, and the yield of 10 - year Japanese government bonds reached a 26 - year high [9]. - **Domestic policies**: The State Council Executive Meeting arranged the implementation of the decisions of the Central Economic Work Conference, and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a draft regulation on the asset - liability management of insurance companies [10]. - **Corporate news**: ByteDance is expected to achieve a record profit of $50 billion in 2025, with its annual revenue expected to increase by over 20%. It is also promoting cooperation with hardware manufacturers on AI mobile phones [10]. 4. Macro - finance - **Stock index futures**: Pay attention to the continuity and structure of liquidity repair. If realized, the index may strengthen. A - shares are oscillating higher, and it is necessary to pay attention to the economic data from January to February next year and the rhythm of macro - policy implementation [14]. - **Treasury bond futures**: Short - and medium - term bonds may oscillate strongly, but the odds are more important than the direction. The probability of the central bank cutting interest rates next week is relatively low [15]. 5. Black Industry - **Coking coal and coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and rise in the short term, but the potential negative feedback risk still restricts the price increase. The supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, and the downstream replenishment is slow [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: It is recommended to close out previous long positions and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the short term. The fundamental logic of manganese silicon remains unchanged [18]. 6. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Zinc**: After the macro - positive factors fade, the price is expected to oscillate lower. It is recommended to hold short positions. The short - term market will focus on overseas macro and domestic supply changes [22]. - **Lead**: It is recommended to continue holding previous short positions. The production of electrolytic lead may decline slightly this week [23]. - **Carbonate lithium**: The short - term demand is weakening, and there may be a short - term correction, but it will rise in the long - term and operate in a wide - range oscillation [24]. - **Industrial silicon and polysilicon**: Industrial silicon may have some valuation repair opportunities, and polysilicon is expected to be strong under the anti - involution policy. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities on dips [25][26]. 7. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The price of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [28]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is still bearish. It is recommended to wait and see, and be cautious when short - selling at low prices [30]. - **Eggs**: The spot price may rise before the Spring Festival, but the increase may be limited. The contracts after the Spring Festival are under pressure, and the far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a decline in inventory [32]. - **Apples**: The futures price may oscillate. The sales in the production and sales areas are slow, and the price of high - quality goods is firm [34]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot price changes in the production area. It is recommended to short - sell the far - month contracts at high prices or look for reverse - spread opportunities [35]. - **Red dates**: Pay close attention to the market performance during the peak consumption season, and currently maintain an oscillating view [36]. - **Pigs**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short - sell the near - month contracts at high prices [38]. 8. Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude oil**: The short - term market focuses on geopolitical factors, but the supply surplus is still the main trading line [39]. - **Fuel oil**: The price will follow the oil price, and the short - term focus is on geopolitical impacts [40]. - **Plastic**: Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly due to large supply pressure and weak downstream demand [41]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to stop profiting on the ru - nr spread strategy in the short term and try short - buying on dips [42]. - **Synthetic rubber**: Short - sell at high prices in the short term, and be cautious when chasing short positions on sharp drops [43]. - **Methanol**: The short - term may have some support, and the far - month contracts can be considered for a slightly long - biased allocation after the inventory is smoothly reduced [44]. - **Caustic soda**: Avoid going long on the near - month contracts, and hold long positions on the main contract dynamically [45]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [46]. - **Polyester industry chain**: Consider going long on dips, and pay attention to the positive spread opportunities of PX and PTA 5 - 9 contracts [47]. - **Liquefied petroleum gas**: The price may oscillate, with support but limited upward momentum [48]. - **Pulp**: Do not chase long positions in the short term. Consider going long on dips if the spot price is stable [49]. - **Log**: The fundamentals are expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the price may oscillate [49]. - **Urea**: Maintain an oscillating view and wait to observe the start of the spot market after the end of environmental protection restrictions [51].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Black Supply Weekly Report - Ferroalloys [1] - Date: December 19, 2025 - Research Institute: Zhongtai Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Dong Xueshan - Qualification Number: F3075616 - Trading Consultation Certificate Number: Z0018025 [2] 2. Key Data - Weekly Production and Changes Silicon Manganese - National weekly production is 18.82 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1015 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 16.24% [3] - Inner Mongolia's weekly production is 9.62 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 700 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.13% [3] - Ningxia's weekly production is 4.44 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1050 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.19% [3] - Guangxi's weekly production is 0.98 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 525 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.78% [3] - Guizhou's weekly production is 1.24 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 280 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 16.63% [3] - Yunnan's weekly production is 0.50 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1750 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.84% [3] - Other regions' weekly production is 2.04 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 420 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 24.28% [3] Silicon Iron - National weekly production is 9.98 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6510 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.54% [3] - Inner Mongolia's weekly production is 3.55 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 630 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.70% [3] - Ningxia's weekly production is 2.46 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2590 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.18% [3] - Shaanxi's weekly production is 1.93 million tons, with no week - on - week change and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.23% [3] - Qinghai's weekly production is 1.09 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2030 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 14.33% [3] - Gansu's weekly production is 0.89 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 910 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.51% [3] - Other regions' weekly production is 0.01 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.00% [3] 3. Data Explanation - The update date of Ganglian terminal data is every Thursday, and the data display date is Friday of the current week. The data source is Mysteel and is sorted out by Zhongtai Futures [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different sectors and varieties having different investment outlooks and risks. For example, in the stock index futures, it is necessary to focus on the sustainability of liquidity repair; in the black sector, steel and ore are expected to be short - term volatile and medium - long - term bearish; in the energy sector, the rise of crude oil driven by geopolitics is limited [15][17][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - China's Hainan Free Trade Port officially launched the full - island customs closure operation on December 18, 2025, expanding the "zero - tariff" commodity scope to more than 6,600 tariff items. China has re - implemented the export license management for steel products after 16 years and approved some rare earth export general license applications. A large gold mine was discovered in Laizhou, Shandong, with a cumulative proven gold resource reserve of over 3,900 tons, accounting for about 26% of the national total [9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to expand effective investment. The State Administration for Market Regulation will promote the construction of a unified national market. Market institutions expect a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve - requirement ratio cut and a 0.1 - percentage - point interest - rate cut in 2026. The CSRC will promote the compilation and implementation of the capital market's "14th Five - Year Plan" [10]. - In 2026, the photovoltaic industry will strengthen capacity control. The next - nominee for the Fed chair may support "substantial" interest - rate cuts. Trump will sign a nearly trillion - dollar annual defense policy bill. The US November core CPI and overall CPI growth rates are lower than expected, but the reliability of the inflation report is questioned. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased, and the number of continued jobless claims increased [11]. - The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged, and the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Japan increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds in October, while China decreased its holdings. The main contracts of palladium and platinum futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange had significant movements, and trading restrictions were imposed [12]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to focus on the sustainability of liquidity repair. If it is realized, the index may strengthen. A - share large and small indexes are differentiated. US economic data shows mixed performance, and domestic November macro - economic data shows a decline in most indicators. The stock market and the bond market strengthened simultaneously on Wednesday, and the market was differentiated on Thursday [15]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The strategy is that medium - and short - term bonds have certain odds and may fluctuate strongly. The capital market is balanced and loose, and the central bank restarts the 14 - day reverse repurchase. The macro - policy expression in the central economic work conference is marginally relaxed, but it is not enough to drive interest - rate cut transactions in the short term. Attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF renewal and bond - buying scale at the end of the month [16]. 3.3 Black Sector 3.3.1 Steel and Ore - From a policy perspective, the implementation of important meeting spirits is in line with market expectations, with no new policies and a relatively gentle policy. From a fundamental perspective, the demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for coils is acceptable. The supply side may see a decline in iron - water production, and the inventory is still at a high level compared with last year. The cost side is expected to continue to decrease. In the short term, steel and ore will fluctuate, and in the medium - long term, a bearish view is maintained [17]. 3.3.2 Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate and rise in the short term. In the medium term, the domestic mine start - up rate is restricted by policies, and in the short term, coal production is restricted by safety supervision and environmental protection. The potential negative feedback risk of weakening steel demand still restricts the prices of coal and coke. The 05 contract may have a phased rebound, but the space is limited [20]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to close out the previous long positions and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the short term. For manganese silicon, a bearish view is maintained in the medium term. The performance of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is weak, and the supply of ferrosilicon has decreased in the near two weeks, while the supply of manganese silicon has not significantly shrunk [21]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see. For glass, it is advisable to try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes. The supply of soda ash has recovered, but the upstream start - up willingness is weak. The market has expectations for the cold - repair of glass production lines, and the follow - up should focus on the implementation of production cuts and other factors [22]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the fundamentals show signs of weakening, but in the medium - long term, the demand is still positive. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of demand and the opportunity to buy on dips [24]. 3.4.2 Industrial Silicon - In the short term, it is difficult to see production cuts. At the end of the month, attention should be paid to the supply disturbance caused by environmental protection in Xinjiang and the fluctuation of coking coal prices, which may lead to a partial repair of valuation. In the future, it will gradually shift to the game of polysilicon production - cut expectations [25]. 3.4.3 Polysilicon - The adjustment of the minimum order quantity for polysilicon futures contracts may weaken the trading enthusiasm and increase price fluctuations. The policy - expected pricing is stronger than the supply - demand contradiction pricing, and the spot price is expected to be strong [26]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - In the short term, it will fluctuate and sort out. The supply is temporarily loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The cost and policy expectations support the cotton price, but the USDA report is negative [28]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is still bearish. The new - sugar listing pressure weighs on the sugar price. The Zhengzhou sugar futures price is at a low level. It is advisable to wait and see, and short - sellers at low levels should be cautious [30]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Before the Spring Festival, the inventory of laying hens in production is expected to remain high, and the short - term contract is bearish. The long - term contract is supported by the expectation of a decline in inventory, and it is advisable to wait and see [32]. 3.5.4 Apples - The futures price may fluctuate. The出库 of apples is slightly reduced year - on - year, and the sales in the market are slow. The high price restricts consumption, and the substitution of citrus fruits suppresses demand [34]. 3.5.5 Corn - Attention should be paid to the change of spot prices in the production area. It is advisable to short - sell the far - month contracts on rallies or look for reverse - spread opportunities in the far - month contracts. The supply - demand mismatch is gradually alleviated, and the far - month contracts face greater supply pressure [35]. 3.5.6 Red Dates - The current view is that the price will fluctuate. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, but the increase in the arrival volume in Cangzhou may suppress the spot price. The follow - up should focus on the performance in the consumption peak season [37]. 3.5.7 Pigs - The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. The spot price lacks the driving force for a rebound and is likely to continue to be weak. It is advisable to short - sell the near - month contracts on rallies and control the position [38]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical Industry 3.6.1 Crude Oil - The geopolitical situation in Venezuela drives the oil price to rebound, but the impact is limited. In the medium term, the oil price may continue to decline. Goldman Sachs predicts that the average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil in 2026 will be $56/barrel and $52/barrel respectively [40]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The supply and demand structure of fuel oil is loose, and its price follows the oil price. The geopolitical situation affects the oil price, and the fuel oil inventory is accumulating [41]. 3.6.3 Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and weak downstream demand. The price may have a small - scale rebound due to production losses, but there is no strong driving force for a large - scale rebound [42]. 3.6.4 Methanol - The supply - demand situation of methanol has slightly improved, and the inventory is starting to decline, but there is still a possibility of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. It is not recommended to continue to be bearish. The near - month contract may have a small - scale rebound, and the far - month contract can be considered for long - position allocation after smooth inventory reduction [43]. 3.6.5 Caustic Soda - The rise of caustic soda futures price is mainly due to the strong performance of coking coal futures. The decline in the price of the liquid chlorine industry chain supports the far - month contract. It is advisable to stop profiting from the long - position in the near - month contract and hold the long - position in the main contract dynamically [44]. 3.6.6 Asphalt - The price fluctuation of asphalt is expected to increase, and the focus in the future is the price bottom after the winter - storage game [45]. 3.6.7 Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term trend of the polyester industry chain is mainly driven by cost and market sentiment. It is advisable to try to go long on dips and pay attention to market sentiment changes. Consider the positive spread between PX and PTA 5 - 9 contracts on dips [47]. 3.6.8 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The decrease in supply supports the price rebound, but the high - level support is insufficient, and the futures price is prone to fall [48]. 3.6.9 Pulp - The old warehouse receipts are compulsorily cancelled, and the fundamentals are gradually improving. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term. If the spot price is stable, a virtual short - call option on the 03 contract can be sold to achieve high - level risk - free hedging [49]. 3.6.10 Logs - The fundamentals are weakly bearish, and the spot price is under pressure. The follow - up is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the futures price is still under pressure [49]. 3.6.11 Urea - The high price in the futures market is not sustainable. A bearish view should be maintained under the high - supply pressure [50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The A-share market showed a strong rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.19% to 3870.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 2.4%, and the ChiNext Index rising 3.39%. The market turnover reached 1.83 trillion yuan. [14] - The prices of steel and ore are expected to be volatile in the short term with limited rebound space, and a bearish approach is recommended in the medium to long term. [18][19] - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile in the short term, and the 05 contract may have a phased rebound opportunity but with limited space and strength. [20] - For iron alloys, a bullish approach is recommended for ferrosilicon in the medium term, while a bearish approach is recommended for silicomanganese. [21][22] - For soda ash, a wait-and-see approach is recommended, while for glass, a bullish approach can be considered after the market sentiment stabilizes. [23] - For zinc, short positions are recommended as the price is expected to decline after the macro positive factors fade. [25] - For lead, it is recommended to hold short positions as the fundamentals are weak. [27] - For lithium carbonate, although the short-term fundamentals show signs of weakening, the medium to long-term demand is positive, and buying opportunities during corrections can be considered. [28] - For industrial silicon, it is expected to be volatile in the short term, and there may be some opportunities to repair the valuation. [31] - For polysilicon, the spot price is expected to remain strong, supporting the futures price to run strongly under the expectation of the anti-involution policy. [32] - For cotton, the price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the long-term price is expected to rise due to the expected reduction in supply. [34][35] - For sugar, the price is expected to decline in a volatile manner, and a wait-and-see approach is recommended. [37] - For eggs, a bearish approach is recommended for the near-term contracts, while a wait-and-see approach is recommended for the far-term contracts. [39] - For apples, the price is expected to be volatile. [41] - For corn, a bearish approach is recommended for the far-term contracts, and a reverse spread opportunity can be considered. [42] - For red dates, a wait-and-see approach is recommended, and the market performance during the consumption peak season should be closely monitored. [43] - For live pigs, a bearish approach is recommended for the near-term contracts as the supply is strong and the demand is weak. [44] - For crude oil, the short-term rise driven by geopolitical factors is limited, and the price is expected to decline in the medium term due to the oversupply. [46][47] - For fuel oil, the price will follow the movement of crude oil prices, and the short-term trading focus is on geopolitical factors. [48] - For plastics, a bearish approach is recommended as the supply pressure is large and the demand is weak. [49] - For rubber, a short-term bullish approach can be considered during corrections, and the ru-nr spread strategy can be temporarily stopped for profit. [50] - For synthetic rubber, the price is expected to be strong due to cost and device factors, but chasing the rise should be cautious. [51] - For methanol, a bullish approach can be considered for the far-term contracts after the inventory is smoothly reduced, while a bullish approach is recommended for the near-term contracts. [52][53] - For caustic soda, a bullish approach is recommended as the futures price is strong. [54] - For asphalt, the price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. [55] - For the polyester industry chain, a positive spread strategy can be considered for PX and PTA 5-9 contracts. [56] - For liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), the price is expected to be weak as the supply is abundant and the demand is poor. [57][58] - For pulp, a wait-and-see approach is recommended, and a short call option strategy can be considered for the 03 contract. [58] - For logs, the price is expected to be under pressure as the fundamentals are weak. [59] - For urea, the Indian urea tender has a positive impact on the near-term sentiment, but the impact on the 05 contract is expected to be weak. [60] Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Macro News - CICC plans to absorb and merge Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities, and the three companies' stocks will resume trading on December 18. After the merger, CICC will become the fourth securities firm with total assets exceeding 1 trillion yuan. [10] - The global silver market has witnessed a historic rally, with the spot silver price breaking through $65 and $66 per ounce on December 17, approaching $67 per ounce. The year-to-date increase is about 130%, twice the increase of gold futures. [10] - In the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, a moderately loose monetary policy is needed to promote economic growth and price recovery. Market institutions generally expect a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point reduction in the interest rate next year. [10] - From January to November this year, the national fiscal revenue was 20.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. The national tax revenue was 16.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.8%, and the securities transaction stamp duty revenue was 185.5 billion yuan, an increase of 70.7%. [11] - China has achieved a breakthrough in invasive brain-computer interface clinical trials, successfully realizing the control of intelligent wheelchairs and robotic dogs with thoughts. [11] - BYD has launched a full-scale internal test of L3-level autonomous driving in Shenzhen, completing over 150,000 kilometers of actual road verification. [11] - CATL's new energy power battery PACK production line for humanoid embodied intelligent robots has been put into operation, marking a milestone in the application of embodied intelligence in the manufacturing industry. [11] - US President Trump has ordered a "full and complete blockade" of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela and declared the Venezuelan government a "foreign terrorist organization." [12] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that the Fed still has 50 to - 100 basis points of room for interest rate cuts, but there is no need for drastic action based on the current economic outlook. [12] Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: A focus on the sustainability of liquidity repair is recommended. If it materializes, the index may strengthen. The A-share market rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.19% to 3870.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 2.4%, and the ChiNext Index rising 3.39%. The market turnover reached 1.83 trillion yuan. [14] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Medium - and short - term bonds have certain odds and are expected to be volatile and strong. The funds are in a balanced and loose state, and the funds rate is stable. The 11 - month macro - economic data showed a decline in most indicators except for the stable unemployment rate. [15] Black Metals - **Steel and Ore**: The policy is relatively mild without strong stimulus. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for rolled products is improving. The supply of steel mills is expected to decline, and the inventory is still at a high level compared to last year. The cost is expected to decrease. A short - term volatile and medium - to long - term bearish approach is recommended. [18][19] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price is expected to be volatile in the short term. The coal production is expected to be restricted in the short term, and the demand for raw materials from steel mills is weakening. The 05 contract may have a phased rebound opportunity but with limited space and strength. [20] - **Ferroalloys**: A bullish approach is recommended for ferrosilicon in the medium term, while a bearish approach is recommended for silicomanganese. The supply of ferrosilicon is expected to decrease, while the supply of silicomanganese is expected to increase. [21][22] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, a wait - and - see approach is recommended. For glass, a bullish approach can be considered after the market sentiment stabilizes. The supply of soda ash is recovering, while the supply of glass is expected to be reduced. [23] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Zinc**: The price is expected to decline after the macro positive factors fade. The domestic inventory has decreased, and the price is affected by the Fed's policy and geopolitical factors. [25][26] - **Lead**: A bearish approach is recommended as the fundamentals are weak. The production of electrolytic lead has decreased, and the market for recycled lead is inactive. [27] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Although the short - term fundamentals show signs of weakening, the medium - to long - term demand is positive, and buying opportunities during corrections can be considered. The supply is expected to shift from surplus to balance or shortage. [28][30] - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and there may be some opportunities to repair the valuation. The supply may be affected by environmental protection in Xinjiang and the price of coking coal. [31] - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is expected to remain strong, supporting the futures price to run strongly under the expectation of the anti - involution policy. The price is affected by the establishment of the platform company and the supply - reduction expectation. [32] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the long - term price is expected to rise due to the expected reduction in supply. The supply is currently abundant, but the demand for pre - holiday replenishment and the expected reduction in planting area support the price. [34][35] - **Sugar**: The price is expected to decline in a volatile manner, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the new sugar supply is increasing. [37] - **Eggs**: A bearish approach is recommended for the near - term contracts, while a wait - and - see approach is recommended for the far - term contracts. The supply of laying hens is expected to decline, but the inventory is still high, and the demand is seasonal. [39] - **Apples**: The price is expected to be volatile. The出库 of apples is slow, and the market demand is weak due to the high price and the substitution of citrus fruits. [41] - **Corn**: A bearish approach is recommended for the far - term contracts, and a reverse spread opportunity can be considered. The supply - demand mismatch is being alleviated, and the far - term supply pressure is increasing. [42] - **Red Dates**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and the market performance during the consumption peak season should be closely monitored. The market is currently stable, and the future performance depends on the consumption demand and inventory reduction. [43] - **Live Pigs**: A bearish approach is recommended for the near - term contracts as the supply is strong and the demand is weak. The supply is expected to increase at the end of the month, and the demand increase during the double festivals is limited. [44] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The short - term rise driven by geopolitical factors is limited, and the price is expected to decline in the medium term due to the oversupply. The situation in Venezuela has led to a short - term increase in the price, but the long - term impact is limited. [46][47] - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the movement of crude oil prices, and the short - term trading focus is on geopolitical factors. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. [48] - **Plastics**: A bearish approach is recommended as the supply pressure is large and the demand is weak. The upstream production is in deficit, but there is no strong driving force for a significant rebound. [49] - **Rubber**: A short - term bullish approach can be considered during corrections, and the ru - nr spread strategy can be temporarily stopped for profit. The cost is supportive, and the price is affected by synthetic rubber. [50] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to be strong due to cost and device factors, but chasing the rise should be cautious. The price is affected by the price of butadiene and the downstream procurement sentiment. [51] - **Methanol**: A bullish approach can be considered for the far - term contracts after the inventory is smoothly reduced, while a bullish approach is recommended for the near - term contracts. The supply is affected by the shutdown of Iranian plants, and the demand is increasing. [52][53] - **Caustic Soda**: A bullish approach is recommended as the futures price is strong. The spot market of 32% caustic soda is improving, and the short - selling positions are actively leaving the market. [54] - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The price is affected by the geopolitical situation and the winter storage expectation. [55] - **Polyester Industry Chain**: A positive spread strategy can be considered for PX and PTA 5 - 9 contracts. The price is mainly driven by cost and market sentiment, and the supply - demand drive is limited. [56] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The price is expected to be weak as the supply is abundant and the demand is poor. The geopolitical premium has limited impact, and the price is prone to decline. [57][58] - **Pulp**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and a short call option strategy can be considered for the 03 contract. The inventory is decreasing, and the market sentiment is improving. [58] - **Logs**: The price is expected to be under pressure as the fundamentals are weak. The inventory is expected to increase, and the spot price is under pressure. [59] - **Urea**: The Indian urea tender has a positive impact on the near - term sentiment, but the impact on the 05 contract is expected to be weak. The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong in the near term. [60]