Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short-term "high-level short allocation", long-term positive outlook for positive spreads [2] - Coking coal and coke: "Weak and volatile" [2] - Rebar and wire rod: "Volatile" [2] - Glass: "Volatile" [2] - Stock index futures/options: Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 "Volatile", Shanghai 50 "Rebound", CSI 500 "Upward", CSI 1000 "Upward" [2][4] - Treasury bonds: 2-year "Volatile", 5-year "Volatile", 10-year "Decline" [4] - Gold and silver: "High-level volatile" [4] - Pulp: "Weak and volatile" [5] - Logs: "Bottom volatile" [5] - Oils and fats: "Volatile" [5] - Meal products: "Volatile and bearish" [5] - Live pigs: "Volatile" [7] - Rubber: "Strong and volatile" [7] - PX: "Wait-and-see" [7] - PTA: "Wait-and-see" [8] - MEG: "Wait-and-see" [8] - PR: "Wait-and-see" [8] - PF: "Narrow-range consolidation" [8] Core Viewpoints - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment-driven rise in the iron ore market has gradually weakened, and it will return to fundamentals in the short term. Coal and coke markets are mainly following the trend of finished products. Steel prices are expected to remain low and volatile in the short term. Glass prices lack upward momentum. Stock index futures are recommended for long positions, and treasury bonds are also recommended for long positions. Precious metals are expected to maintain high-level volatility. Pulp prices are expected to be weak. Log prices are expected to bottom out and fluctuate. Oils and fats and meal products markets are volatile. Live pig prices are expected to remain stable. Rubber prices are expected to be strongly volatile. PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are recommended for a wait-and-see approach [2][4][5][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Supply is expected to increase with the recovery of Australian and Brazilian shipments and the release of some mine capacities. Demand is the key factor. Although the market's expectation for steel demand has improved, the actual demand is seasonally weak. High iron ore port inventories put pressure on prices. The weakening of trade conflicts may bring opportunities for far-month short selling [2] Coal and Coke - The supply and demand of coking coal remain loose. Coking enterprises' profits have improved, but steel mills' procurement willingness has decreased, and coke prices have been lowered. Coke supply continues to increase, and inventories are rising overall [2] Rebar and Wire Rod - The driving force for the previous rise has weakened, and demand is expected to decline. The total inventory is still in the process of being depleted, but the impact of the rainy season may slow down or reverse the inventory depletion. Steel prices are under short-term pressure [2] Glass - Some production lines have resumed operation, and daily melting volume has fluctuated slightly. Spot prices have declined slightly, and profits have been squeezed. Inventories have increased significantly, and demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long term [2] Stock Index Futures/Options - The previous trading day's performance of major stock indices varied. Sector funds flowed in and out differently. Macroeconomic data showed mixed results. With the phased results of Sino-US tariffs and the stabilization of the external market, market risk aversion has eased, and long positions in stock indices are recommended [4] Treasury Bonds - The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and market interest rates have decreased, providing support for Treasury bond prices. Long positions in Treasury bonds are recommended [4] Precious Metals - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. Gold's currency, financial, and hedging attributes are affected by various factors. Short-term factors such as trade tensions and Fed policies may cause fluctuations, but gold prices are expected to maintain high-level volatility [4] Pulp - Spot market prices have shown a differentiated trend, and external market prices have declined. The profitability of the papermaking industry is low, and paper mills' inventories are increasing. Demand has entered the off-season, and pulp prices are expected to be weak [5] Logs - Downstream demand has entered the off-season, and the supply of logs is expected to decrease. Current inventories are being depleted, and prices are expected to bottom out and fluctuate [5] Oils and Fats - Palm oil production is in the seasonal growth period, and inventories have increased significantly. The supply of three major oils and fats is abundant, while consumption is in the off-season. Prices are expected to be volatile [5] Meal Products - Sino-US trade relations have eased, but the weather in the US soybean-growing areas is a key factor. Domestic soybean arrivals have increased significantly, and the supply of meal products is expected to increase. Demand is weak, and prices are expected to be volatile and bearish [5] Live Pigs - The average slaughter weight of live pigs has increased slightly, and demand from slaughtering enterprises has remained stable. Post-festival consumption demand has decreased, but the demand for secondary fattening provides support. Prices are expected to remain stable [7] Rubber - Domestic rubber production is relatively stable, while raw material prices in Thailand have continued to rise. Demand from sample tire enterprises has recovered, and inventories are expected to decrease slightly. Market sentiment is positive, but supply and demand fundamentals still put pressure on prices. Rubber prices are expected to be strongly volatile [7] PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks may affect oil prices. The operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG have fluctuated, and inventories have changed. The polyester market is affected by raw material prices and production reduction plans. A wait-and-see approach is recommended for these products [7][8]

2025年5月19日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 达飞传出复航消息，MSK6月运价不及预期，各合约或将回调，符合日报预期，已建议冲高止盈 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 5月12日 | 5月16日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1302.62点，较上期下跌5.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1014.55点，较上期上涨6.53% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1455.31点，较上期上涨10.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）750.91点，较上期下跌0.78% | | 5月16日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1813.08点，较上期上涨23.18% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1479.39点，较上期下跌134.22点 | 5月16日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1154USD/TEU, 较上期下跌0.60% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1104.88点，较上期下跌0.1% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Multiple liner companies have announced a price increase for early June, leading to a significant rise in the near - month contracts of US - bound shipping rates, which is in line with the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take profits when the price reaches a high point. Attention should be paid to the capacity allocation of US - bound routes within 90 days and the feedback of terminal demand under the easing of tariff policies [2][4]. 3. Summary by Content a. Shipping Rate Index - On May 12, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1302.62 points, a 5.5% decrease from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1455.31 points, a 10.2% increase from the previous period. - On May 9, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 952.32 points, a 2.37% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 756.79 points, a 0.94% decrease from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1471.92 points, a 0.41% decrease from the previous period. - On May 9, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1345.17 points, a decrease of 4.24 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1161 USD/TEU, a 3.3% decrease from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route price was 2347 USD/FEU, a 3.3% increase from the previous period. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1106.38 points, a 1.3% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1445.24 points, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 857.65 points, a 2.4% increase from the previous period [2]. b. PMI Data - In March, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.5%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month; the Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 51.2, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, reaching a four - month high. - In April, the preliminary value of the Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (expected 47.5), the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9). - In April, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (expected 49.1, final value in March 50.2), the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, final value in March 54.4), and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, final value in March 53.5) [2][3]. c. Trade and Policy - Tariffs have become a means of trade negotiation, adding significant uncertainty to future shipping trends. Although the easing of the China - US trade war may lead to a rush of shipments within 90 days, which is beneficial for the digestion of US - bound shipping capacity, price wars among shipping alliances cannot be avoided. - On May 14, China and the US reached multiple positive consensuses in their Geneva economic and trade talks, agreeing to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US promised to cancel 91% of tariffs and suspend 24% of reciprocal tariffs, and China also cancelled 91% of counter - tariffs and suspended 24% of counter - tariffs, with both sides retaining 10% of tariffs. - Starting from June 1, 2025, multiple liner companies announced a new round of freight rate increases for major routes from the Far East to Europe [4]. d. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies in the short term, it is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term contracts. - Arbitrage strategy: Given the impact of tariffs, attention can be paid to the reverse - spread structure, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. - Long - term strategy: Risk - preferring investors can try to go long with a light position when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points (it has already achieved a profit margin of over 400 points) and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points (it has already achieved a profit margin of over 300 points), and it is recommended to take profits when the price reaches a high point [4]. e. Contract Information - On May 15, the closing price of the main contract 2506 was 1787.3, with a gain of 8.72%, a trading volume of 108,800 lots, and an open interest of 38,600 lots, an increase of 61 lots from the previous day. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 16%, and for the 2508 contract, it is 19%. - The company's margin requirements are 26% for contracts 2506 - 2604 and 29% for the 2508 contract. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4].

敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 16 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-16） | | | | 铁矿：关税降幅超预期，市场情绪明显提振，铁矿盘面大幅上涨。随着部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 分矿山产能的逐步释放和气候条件的改善，供应仍有增加的预期。铁矿港 | | | | | 口库存水平仍相对偏高，对价格形成一定的压力。需求才是核心关键，贸 | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 易战缓和使得市场对钢铁需求的预期有所改善，美国进口商未来三个月将 | | | | | 迎来进口成本大幅降低的明确窗口期，未来 90 天中美两国之间的贸易将 | | | | | 大幅增长，对近月形成一定支撑，稳健的投资者尝试铁矿正套，激进的投 | | | | | 资者关注贸易冲突缓和带来的远月合约反弹抛空机会。 | | | | | 煤焦：主产地煤矿基本维持正常生产，焦煤供需宽松格局不变。由于焦煤 | | | | | 价格的下移，焦化企业利润好转，目前多数焦企盈亏平衡状 ...

2.市场具有不确定性、过往策略观点的吻合并不保证当前策略观点的正确。公司及其他研究员可能发表与本策略观点不同甚至相反的意见。报告所载资料、意见及推测仪 映研究人员于发出本报告当日的判断,可随时更改目无需另行通告。 3.在法律范围内，公司或关联机构可能会就涉及的品种进行交易，或可能为其他公司交易提供服务。 4.本报告版权仅为浙江新世纪期货有限公司所有。未经事先书面许可，任何财的和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、刊登、转载和月用，否则由此造成的一切不良后果及法 律责任由私自翻版、复制、刊登、转载和引用者承担。 圳 | | 2025年5月15日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 船司发布涨价函，美线出现抢运潮，部分合约再次涨停，符合日报预期，建议冲高止盈 | | | | | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | 5月12日 | | 5月9日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1302.62点，较上期下跌5.5% | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）952.32点，较上期上涨2.37% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 15 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-15） | | | | 铁矿：关税降幅超预期，市场情绪明显提振，黑色盘面大幅上涨。随着部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 分矿山产能的逐步释放和气候条件的改善，供应仍有增加的预期。铁矿港 | | | | | 口库存水平仍相对偏高，对价格形成一定的压力。需求才是核心关键，贸 | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 易战缓和使得市场对钢铁需求的预期有所改善，美国进口商未来三个月将 | | | | | 迎来进口成本大幅降低的明确窗口期，未来 90 天中美两国之间的贸易将 | | | | | 大幅增长，对近月形成一定支撑，稳健的投资者尝试铁矿正套，激进的投 | | | | | 资者关注贸易冲突缓和带来的远月合约反弹抛空机会。 | | | | | 煤焦：主产地煤矿基本维持正常生产，焦煤供需宽松格局不变。由于焦煤 | | | | | 价格的下移，焦化企业利润好转，目前多数焦企盈亏平衡状态。钢厂铁水 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 产量仍处于 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The substantial progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations meets the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take profits if the price surges today [1] - The core logic for this year lies in the trend of international tariff policies. There are concerns about the price war between MSK and MSC in Q2 and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [4] - Short - term operation is difficult due to external policy turmoil, and it is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term strategies. In the context of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse spread structure, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. Risk - preference investors can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, setting stop - losses and taking profits on rallies [4] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Indexes - On May 5, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1379.07 points, down 3.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1320.69 points, up 7.3% from the previous period [2] - On May 9, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 952.32 points, up 2.37% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 756.79 points, down 0.94% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1471.92 points, down 0.41% from the previous period [2] - On May 9, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1345.17 points, down 4.24 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1161 USD/TEU, down 3.3% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2347 USD/FEU, up 3.3% from the previous period [2] - On May 9, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1106.38 points, down 1.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1445.24 points, down 3.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 857.65 points, up 2.4% from the previous period [2] 3.2 Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the preliminary manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7 (expected 47.5); the added - value of the service industry PMI in April was 49.7 (expected 50.5); the added - value of the composite PMI in April was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9) [2] - The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in April was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [2] - In March, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in March was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [3] - In the US, the preliminary manufacturing PMI in April was 50.7 (expected 49.1, final value in March 50.2); the preliminary service industry PMI in April was 51.4 (expected 52.8, final value in March 54.4); the preliminary composite PMI in April was 51.2 (expected 52.2, final value in March 53.5) [3] - In the first four months of this year, China's total goods trade import and export value was 14.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Exports were 8.39 trillion yuan, up 7.5%; imports were 5.75 trillion yuan, down 4.2%. In April, China's goods trade import and export was 3.84 trillion yuan, up 5.6%. Exports were 2.27 trillion yuan, up 9.3%; imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, up 0.8% [4] 3.3 Futures Market - On May 9, the main contract 2506 closed at 1249.8, down 0.80%, with a trading volume of 36,800 lots and an open interest of 36,900 lots, a decrease of 1255 lots from the previous day [4] - The daily trading limit for contracts 2504 - 2602 is 16%, the company's margin for contracts 2504 - 2602 is 26%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2504 - 2602 is 100 lots [4] 3.4 Geopolitical News - On May 10, India and Pakistan agreed to a cease - fire [4] - Maersk announced that the Red Sea will remain closed for shipping throughout 2025, which boosts bullish confidence to some extent [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly, with an increase in short - term positions [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating at a low level [2] - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50: Rebounding [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [4] - CSI 500: Moving upward [4] - CSI 1000: Moving upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Moving upward [4] - Gold: Oscillating at a high level [4] - Silver: Oscillating at a high level [4] - Pulp: Oscillating weakly [6] - Logs: Oscillating weakly [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating [6] - Rubber: Oscillating [8] - PX: Oscillating [8] - PTA: Oscillating [8] - MEG: On the sidelines [8] - PR: On the sidelines [8] - PF: On the sidelines [8] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is currently strong in the short - term but may face downward pressure in the medium - to - long - term due to factors such as steel mill production cuts and Sino - US trade frictions [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is weak, with high supply pressure and an oversupply situation in coke [2]. - The steel market, including rolled steel and rebar, is expected to oscillate at a low level due to concerns about supply, demand, and policy [2]. - The glass market lacks upward momentum as the real - estate industry is in an adjustment period and demand is weak [2]. - The stock index market shows different trends, and with the improvement of the external market and the implementation of monetary policies, long - positions in stock indices are recommended [4]. - The bond market is expected to have a reasonable liquidity level, and long - positions in bonds are recommended [4]. - The precious metals market, including gold and silver, is expected to oscillate at a high level, affected by factors such as interest rate policies, trade policies, and inflation [4]. - The pulp and log markets are expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as cost reduction and weak demand [6]. - The oil and fat market is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to sufficient supply and weak consumption [6]. - The soybean meal and related products market is expected to oscillate with a downward bias due to increased supply and reduced demand [6]. - The rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance and weak driving forces [8]. - The chemical products market, including PX, PTA, and others, shows different trends mainly affected by raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and macro - factors [8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals Industry - **Iron ore**: Future iron ore shipments may seasonally increase. Steel mills' profitability and iron - water production are high, but steel production may peak in May. Steel exports face tariff risks, and domestic demand is entering the off - season. In the short - term, the market is strong, while in the medium - to - long - term, short - positions in the 09 contract are recommended [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Mongolian coal supply is limited, but the overall supply pressure is high. Coke production is increasing, and inventory is rising. The market is weak and follows the trend of finished steel products [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Steel mills' profits are good, but there are concerns about external demand and domestic demand. The market inventory is low, but production is high, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [2]. - **Glass**: Some production lines have resumed production, and coal prices have fallen, improving profits. However, demand is weak, and the market lacks upward momentum [2]. Financial Market - **Stock indices**: Different stock indices show different trends. The Sino - US economic and trade talks have achieved progress, and with the implementation of monetary policies, long - positions in stock indices are recommended [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: Interest rates are oscillating, and the market will maintain a reasonable liquidity level. Long - positions in bonds are recommended [4]. - **Precious metals**: Gold and silver are expected to oscillate at a high level, affected by factors such as interest rate policies, trade policies, and inflation [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot price is stable, but the cost price has decreased, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Logs**: Demand has declined after a peak, and supply pressure has decreased. The cost has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Oils**: Palm oil production is increasing seasonally, and soybean supply is abundant. Consumption is in the off - season, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. - **Meals**: Soybean supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing after the holiday. The market is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [6]. Soft Commodities and Chemicals - **Rubber**: Supply may be affected by the postponed opening of the Thai rubber season, but domestic supply is increasing. Demand is uncertain, and inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **PX**: It follows the trend of oil prices, which are oscillating at a low level due to demand and geopolitical pressures [8]. - **PTA**: Supply and demand are in a de - stocking state, mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [8]. - **MEG**: Although short - term supply and demand are not bad, the macro - sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the market is on the sidelines [8]. - **PR and PF**: The market shows different trends due to factors such as raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and industry processing fees [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The core logic for this year lies in the direction of international tariff policies. In April, the US may change its tariff policies towards Canada, Mexico, Europe and other countries. With the approaching of the long - term contract pricing window for US routes, retaliatory tariffs are added as a negotiation tool, which adds a major disturbing factor to the future of the shipping industry. Ship companies intend to support prices, but price wars among alliances are inevitable. Attention should be paid to the price war between MSK and MSC in the second quarter and the feedback of terminal demand under radical tariff policies [3] - The positive sentiment in the macro - market has slowed down. With the spot freight rate remaining low, the market is in a state of long - short game and overall oscillating at a low level. Future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index - On May 5, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1379.07 points, down 3.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1320.69 points, up 7.3% from the previous period. On April 30, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1340.93 points, down 6.91 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1200 USD/TEU, down 4.76% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2272 USD/FEU, up 6.12% from the previous period [2] - On May 2, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 930.24 points, up 2.40% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 764 points, down 4.04% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1477.93 points, up 19.67% from the previous period. On April 30, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1121.08 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1497.15 points, down 0.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 837.43 points, up 1.7% from the previous period [2] 3.2 PMI and Investor Confidence Index - In March, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity level. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in March was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [3] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7 (expected 47.5); the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index in April was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [2] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in April was 50.7 (expected 49.1, final value in March 50.2); the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, final value in March 54.4); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, final value in March 53.5) [3] 3.3 Market and Policy Events - On May 8, the main contract 2506 closed at 1283.0, down 3.64%, with a trading volume of 45,500 lots and an open interest of 38,100 lots, a decrease of 1368 lots from the previous day [3] - On May 8, Israeli Defense Minister Katz warned the Yemeni Houthi rebels that if they continued to fire at Israel, "they would suffer a heavy blow from Israel." He also warned Iran [5] - On May 8, the Ministry of Commerce responded to the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks. The Chinese side firmly opposes the US's abuse of tariffs. The US should address the negative impacts of unilateral tariff measures and show sincerity in negotiations [6] 3.4 Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies in the short term, the operation is difficult. If participating in each contract, it is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term investments [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the background of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse arbitrage structure, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large [4] - Long - term strategy: Risk - preferring investors can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, set stop - losses, and take profits when the price rises [4] - The daily price limit for contracts 2504 - 2602 is 16%, the company's margin for these contracts is 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2504 - 2602 is 100 lots [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Low-level oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Weakly oscillating [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Rebound [6] - Palm oil: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating bearishly [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating bearishly [6] - No. 2 soybeans: Oscillating bearishly [6] - No. 1 soybeans: Oscillation [6] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Oscillation [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] - Plastics: Oscillation [9] - PP: Oscillation [11] - PVC: Oscillating weakly [11] Core Views - The iron ore market is currently strong in the short term but bearish in the medium to long term due to potential steel mill production cuts and trade frictions [2] - The coal and coke market is weak, with high supply pressure and an unchanged pattern of oversupply in coke [2] - The rebar market is expected to oscillate at a low level due to high production, potential export impacts, and seasonal demand decline [2] - The glass market lacks upward momentum as the real estate industry remains in an adjustment period [2] - The stock index market is expected to rebound as the external market stabilizes and risk aversion eases [4] - The Treasury bond market is expected to rise as the central bank maintains reasonable liquidity [4] - The precious metal market is expected to oscillate at a high level, with gold prices influenced by interest rate and tariff policies [4] - The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly due to weak demand and reduced cost support [6] - The log market is expected to stabilize at a low level and oscillate, with potential marginal improvement in demand [6] - The oil and fat market is expected to rebound in the short term and oscillate bearishly in the medium term due to ample supply and seasonal demand decline [6] - The meal market is expected to oscillate bearishly as soybean supply increases and demand weakens after the holiday [6] - The rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly due to increased supply and uncertain demand [9] - The chemical product market shows various trends, with prices mainly influenced by supply and demand, raw material prices, and macro factors [9][11] Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron ore**: After the press conference, the iron ore futures price rose and then fell. Global iron ore shipments may increase seasonally in the coming weeks. Steel mill profitability has improved, and hot metal production remains high, but steel production may peak in May. Steel exports face tariff risks, and domestic demand is entering a seasonal off - season, which may lead to steel mill production cuts and be bearish for iron ore in the medium to long term [2] - **Coal and coke**: Mongolian coal supply growth is limited, but the overall supply pressure remains high. Steel spot trading is poor due to tariff policies, and market confidence is low. Coke supply is in an oversupply situation, and coal and coke prices mainly follow the trend of finished steel products [2] - **Rebar**: After the press conference, the rebar futures price rose and then fell. Steel mill profits are good, and supply pressure is increasing. There are doubts about external demand and domestic demand in May. The market inventory is low, which supports the price, but overall, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [2] - **Glass**: Some production lines have resumed operation, and daily melting volume has slightly fluctuated. Coal prices have fallen, improving profits. Factory inventories have slightly decreased, but there are regional differences. Overall, demand is weak, and the market lacks upward momentum [2] Financial and Precious Metal Industry - **Stock index**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices. Aerospace and military industry, and communication equipment sectors had capital inflows. With the stabilization of the external market and the easing of risk aversion, stock index futures are recommended to be held long [4] - **Treasury bond**: Yields of Treasury bonds have declined, and the central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations to inject liquidity. The market is expected to maintain reasonable liquidity, and Treasury bond futures are recommended to be held long [4] - **Precious metals**: Gold prices are influenced by multiple factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and trade policies. The current upward - driving logic has not completely reversed, and gold is expected to oscillate at a high level [4] Light Industry and Oil and Fat Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is strong, but the decline in external market prices weakens cost support. Paper mills' profitability is low, and demand is poor, so the pulp price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **Logs**: Log demand has declined after a peak, but supply pressure has decreased due to reduced arrivals. Spot prices are stable, and the price is expected to stabilize at a low level and oscillate [6] - **Oil and fat**: Palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia is in a seasonal growth period, and soybean production in South America is abundant. Supply is ample, while demand is in a seasonal off - season. The market is expected to rebound in the short term and oscillate bearishly in the medium term [6] - **Meal**: U.S. soybean planting conditions may improve, and South American soybeans are in a bumper harvest. Domestic soybean arrivals are increasing, and meal supply is expected to increase while demand weakens after the holiday, so the meal price is expected to oscillate bearishly [6] Soft Commodity and Chemical Industry - **Rubber**: Supply is expected to increase as the main producing areas start the tapping season. Demand is uncertain, and inventory is still relatively high. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [9] - **PX**: Affected by demand and geopolitical factors, oil prices are oscillating at a low level. PX prices are expected to follow oil price fluctuations [9] - **PTA**: Raw material prices are volatile, and PTA supply and demand are in a de - stocking state, mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [9] - **MEG**: Domestic production capacity utilization has increased, and port inventories have slightly decreased. However, due to macro - sentiment fluctuations, the price fluctuates widely [9] - **Plastics and related products**: Different plastic products have different supply - demand situations and cost factors. Overall, prices are affected by supply, demand, raw material prices, and macro - sentiment [9][11]