Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised the profit forecasts for Gu Ming (01364) and Mixue Group (02097) for this year by 9% and 1% respectively, indicating that the duration of food delivery subsidies has exceeded expectations [1] Company Summaries - Gu Ming's profit forecast for next year has been increased by 4%, reflecting strong performance of new products and efforts in brand investment for 2024 to 2025 [1] - The target price for Gu Ming has been raised from HKD 29.2 to HKD 30, while Mixue's target price has been adjusted from HKD 597 to HKD 599, with both companies rated as "Buy" [1] Industry Insights - Competition among food delivery platforms has intensified since June, with platforms engaging in more aggressive investments, including subsidies [1] - The expected duration of these investments in daily applications is anticipated to be longer than previous investments seen in e-commerce platforms [1] - Increased subsidies are expected to boost transaction volumes, leading to potential profit upside for fresh beverage companies this year [1] - Investors are concerned about the outlook for next year given the high base, the competitive landscape in the fresh beverage industry, and the potential long-term impacts on consumer behavior and price perception [1] - Short-term stock prices for Mixue Group and Gu Ming may be influenced by the sentiment surrounding delivery platform strategies, with worries that normalization of subsidies could lead to a decline in per-store transaction amounts [1] - The investor lock-up period for Gu Ming will expire next Monday (11th), and the seasonal slowdown after summer may limit short-term sentiment [1] - Despite these concerns, there is optimism regarding the long-term positions of both companies, with expectations that subsidy normalization may improve the competitive landscape [1]

致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 古茗控股有限公司（於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年7月31日 狀態: 新提交 呈交日期: 2025年8月5日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01364 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 2,378,185,860 | | 0 | | 2,378,185,860 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | 0 | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 2,378,185,860 | | 0 | | 2,378,185,860 | 第 2 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 III.已發行股份及 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a rating of "Buy" for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company has significant supply chain and operational advantages, with ample growth potential [2]. - The projected revenue for 2025-2027 is estimated at 112.79 billion, 132.31 billion, and 155.86 billion RMB, with growth rates of 28%, 17%, and 18% respectively [10][15]. - The adjusted net profit for the same period is expected to be 21.63 billion, 25.31 billion, and 29.96 billion RMB, with growth rates of 40%, 17%, and 18% respectively [10][15]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 7,676 million RMB in 2023 to 15,586 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.1% in 2023, followed by 14.5%, 28.3%, 17.3%, and 17.8% in subsequent years [5][10]. - Gross profit is expected to increase from 2,403 million RMB in 2023 to 4,909 million RMB in 2027 [5]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to rise from 1,459 million RMB in 2023 to 2,996 million RMB in 2027, with a notable increase of 85% in 2024 [5][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic ready-to-drink tea market, focusing on high-quality, short-shelf-life ingredients [22]. - The business model emphasizes a high-density store network supported by self-built cold chain logistics, allowing for cost-effective delivery of fresh ingredients [10][22]. - The company plans to expand its store count significantly, with projections of opening 2,500, 3,000, and 3,500 new stores from 2025 to 2027, respectively [17]. Valuation - The report assigns a target price of 29.66 HKD based on a projected PE ratio of 30x for 2025, which is above the industry average [20]. - The current market capitalization is approximately 57,790 million HKD [7]. Management and Governance - The management team is experienced, with a strong focus on operational efficiency and franchisee support [29][32]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the founding team holding over 70% of the shares, ensuring alignment of interests [29][30]. Growth Potential - The ready-to-drink beverage market in China has substantial growth potential, particularly in lower-tier cities, which are expected to be the main source of growth [10][22]. - The company is leveraging digital operations and a robust supply chain to enhance its competitive edge [10][22].

| 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 ▽ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 02145 | 下美股份 | 81.500 | 7.73% | | 06181 | 老铺黄金 | 731.500 | 6.01% | | 09863 | 零跑汽车 | 61.250 | 4.88% | | 02367 | 巨子生物 | 57.200 | 2.97% | | 01364 | 古茗 | 23.620 | 2.92% | | 09992 | 泡泡玛特 | 250.000 | 2.80% | | 01810 | 小米集团-W | 54.500 | 2.06% | | 09985 | 卫龙美味 | 12.160 | 1.50% | | 09868 | 小鹏汽车-W | 72.350 | 1.47% | | 01405 | 达势股份 | 85.250 | 1.31% | | 01318 | 毛戈平 | 100.400 | 0.80% | | 09896 | 名创优品 | 37.180 | 0.35% | | 09866 | 蔚来-SW | 37.920 | 0.32% | | 02097 | 蜜雪集 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve a non-GAAP net profit of approximately 1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a revenue growth of around 30%, aligning with market expectations [1]. Group 1: Revenue and Store Performance - The company anticipates strong same-store performance in the first half of 2025, driven by a low base and the competitive landscape in the takeaway market, with an expected same-store growth exceeding 20% in Q2 2025 [1][2]. - The total number of stores is projected to reach approximately 11,000 by the end of the first half of 2025, with around 1,100 new stores added [1]. - The company signed nearly 2,000 new stores from January to May, although some openings are delayed due to renovation capacity constraints [1]. Group 2: Profitability and Margin Outlook - The company is expected to see a recovery in profit margins, with a projected net profit margin increase of about 1 percentage point, leading to a non-GAAP net profit of around 1 billion yuan [2]. - The gross margin is anticipated to expand due to increased cup output, although the lower margin from coffee machines may offset some of this growth [2]. - Marketing efforts, including hiring brand ambassadors and social media promotions, are expected to enhance coffee sales, with coffee cup output potentially exceeding 10% by June [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Long-term Outlook - The company has established a foundation for survival without relying on a single platform through digitalization and supply chain development, positioning itself well for competition post-subsidy [3]. - The long-term trend suggests an increase in market share, focusing on brand value and stable customer experience rather than short-term promotions [3]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, increasing the adjusted net profit estimates by 9% and 7% to 2.2 billion and 2.5 billion yuan, respectively [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a strong long-term competitive advantage for Gu Ming (01364), leading to an upward revision of adjusted net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 by 9% and 7% to 2.2 billion and 2.5 billion HKD respectively [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth and Store Expansion - The company is expected to achieve approximately 30% revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by both same-store sales and new store openings [2] - The number of stores is projected to reach around 11,000 by the end of the first half of 2025, with about 1,100 new stores added [2] - The company signed nearly 2,000 new stores from January to May, although some openings are delayed due to renovation capacity constraints [2] Group 2: Profitability and Margin Improvement - The company is anticipated to see a recovery in profit margins, with a projected increase in non-GAAP net profit to around 1 billion HKD in the first half of 2025 [2] - The gross margin is expected to expand due to increased cup volume, although lower margins from coffee machines may offset some of this gain [2] - The company plans to enhance coffee product marketing, which is expected to increase coffee cup volume to over 10% by June [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Competitive Position - The outlook for same-store sales in the second half of the year remains positive, with expectations for accelerated store openings due to the easing of renovation constraints [3] - The company is leveraging delivery subsidies for new customer acquisition and product promotion, particularly for coffee products [3] - The long-term competitive advantage of Gu Ming is expected to be maintained, focusing on brand value and customer experience rather than solely on short-term promotions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company has a solid long-term competitive advantage, leading to an upward revision of adjusted net profit for 2025 and 2026 by 9% and 7% to 2.2 billion and 2.5 billion respectively [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth - The company is expected to achieve approximately 30% revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by both same-store sales and an increase in the number of stores [2] - The number of stores is projected to reach around 11,000 by the end of the first half of 2025, with about 1,100 new stores added [2] - The company signed nearly 2,000 new stores from January to May, although some were delayed due to renovation capacity constraints, which are expected to ease by June [2] Group 2: Profitability - The company is anticipated to see a recovery in profit margins, with a projected non-GAAP net profit of around 1 billion in the first half of 2025 [3] - The gross margin is expected to expand due to increased cup volume, although the lower margin from coffee machines may offset some of this increase [3] - The company plans to enhance marketing efforts for coffee products, which may lead to a rise in coffee cup volume to over 10% by June [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is expected to accelerate store openings in the second half of the year, potentially exceeding 3,000 new stores for the entire year [4] - Same-store performance may normalize in the second half due to base effects and a reduction in delivery subsidies, but it is still expected to outperform the industry [4] - The company has established a foundation that does not rely solely on a single platform for survival, which may enhance its long-term competitive advantage despite the reduction in delivery subsidies [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [5][14]. Core Insights - The current landscape of the tea beverage industry is thriving, driven by the delivery battle and the peak season, with the company positioned as a leading player in the ready-to-drink tea market. The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 110.3 billion, 127.5 billion, and 147.0 billion yuan for 2025-2027, and net profits of 19.4 billion, 22.8 billion, and 26.5 billion yuan respectively [5]. Company Overview - The company, founded in 2010 in Zhejiang, has established itself as a leader in the ready-to-drink tea market, focusing on supply chain efficiency to support store expansion. As of 2024, the company achieved revenues of 87.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.54%, with adjusted net profits reaching 14.93 billion yuan, up 5.69% [9][21]. Market Position - The ready-to-drink tea market has evolved beyond basic product functionality, becoming a medium for young consumers to express lifestyle and values. The company holds a 9% and 18% market share in the overall and mass market segments respectively, ranking second overall and first in the mass market [10]. Competitive Advantages - The company has built a robust competitive edge through comprehensive support for franchisees and optimized supply chain management, allowing for profitable expansion without sacrificing quality. The company boasts the largest cold chain logistics infrastructure in the industry, with an average delivery cost of 0.9% of GMV, lower than the industry average of 2% [11]. Future Growth Potential - The company employs a regional density strategy, aiming for 500 stores per province as a key scale node. It currently operates in eight provinces, capturing 25% of the mass ready-to-drink tea market. The company has significant room for expansion, with estimates suggesting over 9,866 potential new stores in a neutral scenario and up to 19,314 if it continues to expand into currently unentered cities [12]. Financial Overview - The company has demonstrated resilient financial performance, with revenues of 87.91 billion yuan in 2024, driven by store expansion and increased demand for products. The revenue structure remains stable, with product sales accounting for nearly 80% of total revenue [38]. The adjusted net profit margin has shown fluctuations but remains competitive within the industry [43].

Group 1 - The new consumption concept stocks in the Hong Kong market experienced a decline, with notable drops in specific companies [1] - Old Poo Gold (06181.HK) fell over 6%, indicating significant market reaction [1] - Other companies such as Gu Ming (01364.HK), Bluco (00325.HK), and Juzi Bio (02367.HK) also saw declines exceeding 4% [1]

Group 1 - Beijing's public transport association initially announced a ban on fuel vehicles for ride-hailing platforms, but later deleted the statement and issued an apology due to verification issues [2] - Zhengzhou's market regulation bureau held talks with major food delivery platforms, including Ele.me, Meituan, and JD, addressing compliance issues and emphasizing the need for fair competition [4] - Taobao Shanguo denied rumors about launching a "1 cent self-pickup" product and stated it has never set internal order targets [4] Group 2 - China Ruyi announced plans to acquire a 30% stake in Kuaiqian Financial for 240 million yuan [5] - JD plans to build 10,000 "Seven Fresh Kitchen" locations nationwide within three years, investing 10 billion yuan to recruit partners for signature dishes [5] - Meituan's "Pin Hao Fan" launched a "Ten Thousand Brands" initiative to support 10,000 well-known restaurant brands [7] Group 3 - Sanofi is set to acquire Vicebio for up to $1.6 billion, focusing on respiratory virus vaccine development [27] - Flexjet completed an $800 million equity financing round, led by L Catterton, to expand its private aviation services [27] - Turing Quantum raised a significant amount in a strategic round of financing to develop photonic chip products [27] Group 4 - Universal Music Group filed for a confidential IPO in the U.S., having previously listed in the Netherlands [25] - Amazon acquired AI wearable device maker Bee, which produces a $50 AI assistant wristband [25] - Tesla opened its first Supercharger diner in Los Angeles, featuring a futuristic design and robot staff [19]