Core Insights - The retail industry is facing dual challenges of fluctuating traffic and AI transformation, necessitating a stable and efficient data foundation for success [1][3] - OceanBase Cloud (OB Cloud) aims to deepen its presence in the new retail sector by providing integrated cloud database solutions [1][4] Industry Trends - The retail sector is shifting from broad traffic operations to deep user value exploration, with over 90% of companies believing that generative AI will enhance productivity [3] - Traditional architectures face issues such as data latency and system fragmentation, hindering real-time decision-making and AI innovation [3] Company Developments - OB Cloud has developed four core capabilities to address retail challenges: integration of transaction and analysis, multi-model data fusion, vectorized query for AI applications, and multi-cloud native deployment [4] - The platform has demonstrated significant performance improvements, such as a 90% reduction in scaling time for high traffic scenarios and a 45% increase in real-time computing power for member systems [4][5] Case Studies - Haidilao utilized OB Cloud to manage high concurrency in its membership system, achieving stable operations that support over 80% of its total revenue [4][6] - The integration of OB Cloud in Haidilao's inventory system allows for real-time stock calculations and proactive decision-making, reducing response time from days to minutes [5] AI Integration - OB Cloud is focusing on deep integration of AI with databases, enhancing capabilities to understand unstructured data such as images and text [6] - The platform enables features like visual search and intelligent recommendation systems, improving customer experience and operational efficiency [6] Market Position - OB Cloud has served over 200 leading retail enterprises, including Li Ning and Haidilao, and is becoming a key infrastructure for the digital transformation of the retail industry [6][7] - The company has established a global presence across more than 50 regions, with a customer growth rate of 130% [7] Research Insights - A white paper released at the conference highlights the transition of integrated cloud databases from cost centers to growth engines, emphasizing the need for businesses to focus on architecture design and AI capabilities [7]

Core Insights - Haidilao has received over 150,000 reservations for the Qixi Festival, which is more than five times the normal Friday reservation volume [1] Group 1 - The data indicates that Haidilao's popularity is significantly increasing, with some popular locations being fully booked a week in advance [1]

Core Insights - As of August 29, the company has received over 150,000 dining reservations for the Qixi Festival, which is more than five times the normal Friday reservation volume [1] - The first "super dessert station" has opened at the Shanghai Zhonggeng Manyou City store, offering over 30 products, including beverages and desserts, with over 90% priced under 15 yuan [1] - The company is enhancing customer experience through innovative themes and unique products, aiming to create a "thousand stores with a thousand faces" strategy [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company's main business shows stabilization in customer spending, and the effectiveness of the "Red Pomegranate" initiative is notable [1] - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to reflect uncertainties in the dining environment, with expected net profits of 4.228 billion, 4.712 billion, and 5.113 billion respectively [1] - The company has experienced a decline in same-store sales, but growth in takeaway and other restaurant operations has been significant [1] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 41.622 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 33.66% [1] - The diluted EPS for 2025 is estimated at 0.76, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 17.55 [1] - The company reported a total of 1,322 restaurants as of the first half of 2025, with a net decrease of 33 restaurants during that period [1][7] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from restaurant operations, takeaway, and other segments for the first half of 2025 was 185.80 million, 9.28 million, and 5.97 million respectively, with significant year-on-year growth in takeaway and other operations [1] - The average customer spending in the first half of 2025 was 97.9 yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.51% year-on-year [1] Cost Structure - The cost structure for the first half of 2025 shows that raw material costs accounted for 39.82% of total expenses, with employee costs at 33.75% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Haidilao's strategic decision to expand its franchise model is a calculated move aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and market penetration, rather than a reaction to financial pressures [9]. Group 1: Franchise Expansion - As of June 30, 2025, Haidilao operates 1,363 self-operated restaurants and 41 franchise restaurants, with 25 new self-operated and 3 franchise restaurants opened in the first half of the year [1]. - The franchise business generated revenue of 90.849 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a significant increase from 1.899 million yuan in the same period of 2024 [3]. - Haidilao has received over 20,000 franchise applications since opening its franchise model in 2024, indicating strong interest in the brand [1][9]. Group 2: Franchise Model Characteristics - Haidilao employs a "strong management" franchise system, ensuring uniformity in operations, training, performance evaluation, and brand building across franchise and self-operated restaurants [4]. - Franchisees are required to first acquire an existing restaurant before opening new ones, which helps them quickly understand the brand's management and culture [5]. - The initial investment to open a Haidilao franchise is considered to be around 10 million yuan, with actual costs potentially higher due to various operational expenses [8]. Group 3: Strategic Rationale - The franchise model is seen as a way to leverage local resources and insights, particularly in lower-tier cities where direct management may not be as effective [9]. - Haidilao's management emphasizes that the franchise expansion is not a desperate measure for cash flow, as the company has the capability to continue opening restaurants independently [9]. - The combination of old and new store franchises is designed to enhance franchisee understanding of the brand and reduce the time needed for training [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to several companies including China Feihe, Huazhu, and others, while Budweiser APAC is rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates a slight rebound in spot costs for essential consumer goods, with most indices showing an increase, while futures indices generally declined [35]. - The overall trend in the consumer goods sector reflects a mixed performance, with some categories experiencing cost increases while others face declines [8][35]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer increased by 0.39% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 6.06%. Year-to-date changes show a decline of 4.17% for spot and 6.16% for futures [36][13]. - Glass prices initially rose but later fell, with month-on-month changes of +0.3% for spot and -13.9% for futures [12]. Seasonings - The spot cost index for seasonings decreased by 0.16% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 5.93%. Year-to-date changes are -1.76% for spot and -6.01% for futures [37]. - Domestic soybean prices have increased due to supply contraction, while imported soybeans remain weak [16]. Dairy - The spot cost index for dairy products increased by 0.7% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 1.44%. Year-to-date changes are -3.2% for spot and -2.11% for futures [38]. - Fresh milk prices have declined to 3.02 yuan/kg, with various factors contributing to price pressures [19]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles increased by 1.3% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 2%. Year-to-date changes are -3.01% for spot and -4.21% for futures [39]. - Palm oil prices have risen, impacting overall costs [23]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index for frozen foods increased by 1.15% month-on-month, while the futures index rose by 0.97%. Year-to-date changes are -1.83% for spot and -2.74% for futures [40]. - Vegetable prices have shown significant fluctuations due to seasonal demand [27]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks increased by 0.78% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 5.63%. Year-to-date changes are -4.99% for spot and -8.6% for futures [41]. - PET prices are stable to weak, reflecting changes in demand and inventory levels [31].

Core Insights - Haidilao is exploring a differentiated approach to its business model, focusing on both customer and employee engagement while navigating market challenges [1][10] - The company reported a revenue of 20.703 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.755 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a strong financial performance [1][10] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Haidilao achieved an operating income of 20.703 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.755 billion yuan, with core operating profit reaching 2.408 billion yuan [1][10] - The operating cash flow for the same period was 3.25 billion yuan, providing a solid financial foundation for the company's initiatives [10] Multi-Brand Strategy - Haidilao's "Pomegranate Plan" has led to the establishment of a matrix of 14 second brands, with "other restaurant income" surging by 227% year-on-year [3][4] - The company has successfully launched multiple restaurant brands, including "Yanjing Barbecue" and "Xiangqian Yinxing," with a total of 126 restaurants operating under these new brands [4][5] - The strategy emphasizes rapid brand incubation through an "internal entrepreneurship + external empowerment" model, significantly reducing the time required to develop new brands [4][5] Innovation and Operational Efficiency - Haidilao is leveraging a comprehensive service system that integrates supply chain management, digital platforms, and talent development to lower the costs associated with multi-brand experimentation [8][9] - The company has implemented a "fast trial and iteration" approach to innovation, allowing for quick adjustments and learning from failures [11][12] - The digital platform enhances operational efficiency by streamlining management processes and improving decision-making capabilities [8][11] Market Position and Future Outlook - Despite challenges in the restaurant industry, Haidilao's multi-brand strategy is viewed positively by the capital market, with expectations for potential growth from successful new brands [10][11] - The company is focusing on optimizing single-store models and nurturing promising brands to enhance overall brand synergy [7][11] - Analysts suggest that Haidilao's ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences and its systematic approach to brand development position it well for future growth [12]

Core Viewpoint - The overall decline in the restaurant industry has impacted Haidilao, with a notable decrease in sales and revenue in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Haidilao's restaurant system sales decreased by 6.5% year-on-year, with total revenue recorded at 20.703 billion RMB, down 3.7% [1]. - The core restaurant operations generated 18.58 billion RMB, a 9% decrease, marking the first year-on-year decline in revenue since 2022 [1]. - The average table turnover rate fell from 4.2 times per day to 3.8 times, leading to a 10% decrease in same-store sales [4][7]. - Core operating profit declined by 14% to 2.4 billion RMB, a reduction of nearly 400 million RMB compared to the previous year [6]. Market Environment - The external market environment has changed, with national restaurant revenue growth slowing down, and in June 2025, revenue from large-scale catering enterprises fell by 0.4% year-on-year [3]. - Despite the market downturn, Haidilao maintained a slight increase in average consumer spending, rising from 97.4 RMB to 97.9 RMB [3]. Strategic Adjustments - Haidilao is shifting from a standardized model to a more personalized growth path, expanding its product offerings and store types [2]. - The company is diversifying its menu and store themes, including high-end "selected stores" and budget lunch buffets, as well as themed stores for night snacks and family interactions [2]. - The "Red Pomegranate Plan" has been launched to extend into various food categories, including barbecue and fried chicken, covering nearly all mainstream restaurant formats [2]. Cost Management - Fixed costs remain high, with labor costs increasing by 0.5 percentage points to 33.8% of total costs [5]. - Although prices were not directly lowered, increased portion sizes and material investments led to a rise in raw material costs by 0.8 percentage points to 39.8% [5]. New Business Initiatives - Haidilao has accelerated its franchise system and the "Red Pomegranate Plan," which now includes 14 restaurant brands and 126 locations, up from 11 brands and 74 locations last year [13]. - The new franchise stores generated 91 million RMB in revenue, significantly lower than the average revenue of direct-operated stores [15]. - The "other restaurant operations" segment, which includes various brands under the "Red Pomegranate Plan," achieved a revenue of 597 million RMB, a substantial increase of 227% year-on-year [15]. Shareholder Returns - Haidilao has significantly increased its shareholder return, with the payout ratio rising from 40% in 2022 to 90% in 2023, and reaching 95% in 2024 [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - Haidilao is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from a traditional hotpot chain to a more diversified restaurant ecosystem, exploring new business models and marketing strategies to counter declining revenues and customer traffic [1][5][38] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Haidilao reported a 3.7% year-on-year decline in revenue and a 13.7% drop in net profit, with key metrics such as table turnover rate, customer traffic, and store count under pressure [1][3] - The total number of Haidilao restaurants decreased by 5, totaling 1,363, with 1,299 in mainland China and 41 franchises [1][2] - The table turnover rate for self-operated restaurants was 3.8 times per day, down from 4.2 times the previous year, indicating a struggle to meet the previously set benchmark of 4 times [2][3] Group 2: Business Strategy and Innovation - Haidilao is actively pursuing a multi-brand strategy and enhancing its delivery services, with revenue from "other restaurants" and delivery business growing by 227% and nearly 60% respectively in the first half of 2025 [3][24] - The company is experimenting with new concepts such as "nightclub mode" and launching themed menus to attract customers, including a "night snack menu" featuring new dishes and cocktails [8][13][15] - The "Red Pomegranate Plan" was introduced to encourage internal entrepreneurship among employees, aiming to expand and incubate new brands beyond the main Haidilao brand [22][23] Group 3: Market Position and Challenges - Despite the rapid growth of the delivery business, it still contributes a relatively small portion to overall revenue, and maintaining service quality during this expansion poses a significant challenge [35][37] - The company faces intense competition in the delivery market, having entered a crowded space where many players are vying for market share [37] - Haidilao's traditional service model is being challenged by changing consumer preferences, necessitating a balance between standardization and personalized experiences [38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao with a target price of HK$20.40, indicating a potential upside of 41% from the current price of HK$14.47 [1][6]. Core Insights - Haidilao's 1H25 performance was below expectations, with revenue of RMB 20.703 billion, a year-on-year decline of 3.7%. The brand's revenue accounted for 90% of total income, with significant contributions from various city tiers [3][4]. - The company is actively adjusting its operational strategies to improve performance in 2H25, focusing on personalized customer service and enhancing dining experiences to attract younger consumers [4][5]. - Despite a decline in profits and revenue, Haidilao maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 95%, with cash reserves of approximately RMB 6 billion, indicating strong cash flow management [5][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are expected to grow at rates of 3.3%, 3.3%, and 3.1%, reaching RMB 441.5 billion, RMB 455.9 billion, and RMB 470.0 billion respectively. Net profit is projected to grow at 2.7%, 3.0%, and 2.9% over the same period [6][7]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB 1.759 billion for 1H25, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13.7%, with a net profit margin of 8.5% [3][4]. - The financial outlook remains stable, with a projected P/E ratio of 21 times for 2026, supporting the target price of HK$20.40 [6][7].