Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is increasing its investment in intelligent driving to ensure a competitive advantage, while expanding its components and export business to enhance long-term profitability [5] - The revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly adjusted downwards due to intense competition in the domestic new energy vehicle market, with 2025 revenue projected at 556.7 billion and 2026 at 681.4 billion [5] - The company aims for a breakeven point in 2025, with a delivery target of 500,000 to 600,000 vehicles, including 50,000 to 60,000 for export [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2023 was 16,747 million, with a projected increase to 55,665 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 73.1% [8] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to improve from -3,518 million in 2023 to -423 million in 2025, with a significant increase to 1,921 million by 2027 [8] - The gross margin is projected to rise from 0.5% in 2023 to 10.6% in 2025, indicating improved cost management and product mix [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is increasing its investment in intelligent driving to ensure a competitive advantage, while expanding its components and export business to enhance long-term profitability [5] - The revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly adjusted downwards due to intense competition in the domestic new energy vehicle market, with 2025 revenue projected at 556.7 billion and 2026 at 681.4 billion [5] - The company aims for a breakeven point in 2025, with a delivery target of 500,000 to 600,000 vehicles, including 50,000 to 60,000 for export [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 16,747 million, with a year-on-year growth of 35.2%. The projected revenue for 2025 is 55,665 million, reflecting a growth rate of 73.1% [8] - The Non-GAAP net profit is expected to improve from a loss of 3,518 million in 2023 to a loss of 423 million in 2025, with a significant turnaround projected for 2027 with a profit of 1,921 million [8] - The gross margin is expected to increase from 0.5% in 2023 to 10.6% in 2025, indicating improved cost management and product mix [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is increasing its investment in intelligent driving to ensure a competitive advantage, while expanding its components and export business to enhance long-term profitability [5] - Due to intense competition in the domestic new energy vehicle market, revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards to CNY 55.67 billion and CNY 68.14 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at CNY 81.32 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 73.1%, 22.4%, and 19.3% [5] - The company achieved its first quarterly profit in Q4 2024, with revenue of CNY 13.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 155%, and a GAAP net profit of CNY 0.08 billion [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: CNY 16.75 billion (2023), CNY 32.16 billion (2024), CNY 55.67 billion (2025), CNY 68.14 billion (2026), and CNY 81.32 billion (2027) [8] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts are: CNY -3.52 billion (2023), CNY -2.35 billion (2024), CNY -0.42 billion (2025), CNY 0.39 billion (2026), and CNY 1.92 billion (2027) [8] - The company aims for a gross margin of 10-11% in 2025 and targets to achieve breakeven for the year [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 performance exceeded expectations, with significant growth in vehicle deliveries and revenue, driven by improved cost efficiency and product mix [2][3]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with new vehicle launches planned for 2025 and a strong outlook for profitability in both domestic and international markets [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4, the company delivered 120,863 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 147.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40.3%. Revenue for Q4 reached 13.455 billion yuan, up 144.6% year-on-year and 36.5% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle in Q4 was 111,300 yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 12.5% but a slight decrease of 2.7% from the previous quarter [1]. - For the full year 2024, total vehicle sales are projected at 294,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 103.8%, with revenue expected to reach 32.16 billion yuan, up 92% year-on-year [1]. Cost and Profitability - Q4 R&D, sales, and management expenses were 900 million, 370 million, and 690 million yuan respectively, with a decrease in expense ratios compared to the previous quarter [1]. - The gross margin for Q4 was 13.3%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points year-on-year and 5.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The company achieved a net profit of 80 million yuan in Q4, marking its first profitable quarter [1][2]. Growth Potential - The company plans to launch three new models in 2025, which are expected to enhance scale effects and platform reuse, potentially exceeding Q4 2024 sales and gross margin figures [3]. - The international expansion is anticipated to contribute significantly to profitability by 2026, with the domestic segment already positioned for breakeven [3]. - The company is advancing its autonomous driving capabilities, with plans to launch a city NOA solution by the end of 2025, positioning itself competitively against major players [3]. Long-term Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are set at 59.72 billion yuan for 2025, 81.48 billion yuan for 2026, and 105.58 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting strong growth rates [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (9863.HK) with a target price of HKD 52.4, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HKD 41.5 [2][4][6]. Core Insights - Leap Motor's sales guidance for 2025 is strong, with expectations to exceed 500,000 vehicles sold, driven by new models and mid-cycle updates [6]. - The company aims for a gross margin of over 10%, supported by its self-developed core automotive electronic components and the LEAP 3.5 architecture [6]. - Leap Motor is expected to achieve profitability in 2025, aided by effective cost management and operational leverage [6]. - The current price-to-sales ratio of 0.9x suggests potential for valuation re-rating, making it attractive compared to peers in the new energy vehicle sector [6]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from RMB 16,747 million in 2023 to RMB 57,812 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 80% [3][10]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 0.5% in 2023 to 10.8% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability [3][10]. - Net losses are forecasted to decrease from RMB 4,216 million in 2023 to a near breakeven of RMB 49 million in 2025, with a return to profitability anticipated in 2026 [3][10]. - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 134.6 billion in Q4 2024, marking a 155% year-on-year increase [9]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, applying a price-to-sales ratio of 1.1x for automotive sales and 1.0x for services and other revenues, leading to a target price of HKD 52.4 [11].

Financial Overview - The company reported a revenue of 14.4 billion in Q2 2023, with a year-on-year decrease of 28% [1] - Gross profit was -1.1 billion, with a gross margin of -7.8% [1] - The net profit for Q4 2024 was -11.3 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 78.5% [1] Delivery and Sales Performance - In 2024, the total delivery volume reached 293,724 units, a year-on-year increase of 163.8% [2] - The C series accounted for 76.6% of total sales, with cumulative deliveries of 225,071 units, up 112.9% from 2023 [2] - In January and February 2025, cumulative sales reached 50,457 units, a growth of 167.8% compared to the same period in 2024 [2] Product and Technology Innovations - The company launched new models C10 and C16 based on a new platform in 2024, achieving significant safety certifications and design awards [3] - The LEAP3.0 central control technology was successfully applied, leading to strong market performance with monthly sales exceeding 30,000 units in Q4 2024 [3] Future Product Plans - The company plans to launch three new models on the B platform in 2025, with the B10 model starting pre-sales on March 10, 2025 [10] - The C platform will see updated versions of C10 and C16 in the first half of 2025 [10] Global Expansion Strategy - A joint venture with Stellantis was established in May 2024 to enhance overseas market presence, with over 400 sales and service points globally by the end of 2024 [8] - The company aims for overseas sales of 50,000 to 60,000 units in 2025 [9] Strategic Collaborations - A strategic cooperation memorandum was signed with China FAW Group on March 3, 2025, focusing on joint development of new energy vehicles and component collaboration [9] R&D and Investment in Smart Driving - The smart driving team is set to expand from 500 to over 600 members in 2025, with an investment of over 800 million in smart driving technologies [12] - The company aims to achieve full integration of urban NOA by the end of 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 performance exceeded expectations, with significant growth in vehicle deliveries and revenue, driven by improved cost efficiency and product mix [2][3]. - The company is expected to launch three new models in 2025, which could further enhance sales and profitability, with a positive outlook for domestic earnings despite potential short-term pressures [3][4]. - The long-term strategy of self-research and supply is expected to continue yielding cost advantages and competitive products, with revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 597 billion, 815 billion, and 1,056 billion RMB respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4, the company delivered 120,863 vehicles, with revenue reaching 13.455 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year increase of 144.6% [1]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle in Q4 was 111,300 RMB, reflecting a 12.5% increase year-on-year [1]. - For the full year 2024, total vehicle sales are projected at 294,000 units, with revenue of 32.16 billion RMB, representing a 92% year-on-year growth [1]. Cost and Profitability - Q4 gross margin improved to 13.3%, with a net profit of 80 million RMB, marking the first profitable quarter for the company [1]. - The company achieved a significant reduction in vehicle costs, with Q4 unit costs down to 96,500 RMB [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 8.4%, an increase of 7.9 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in 2025, with anticipated sales and gross margins surpassing Q4 2024 levels [3]. - The international expansion is projected to contribute significantly to profitability starting in 2026, with the domestic market already positioned for breakeven [3]. - The company is advancing its autonomous driving capabilities, with plans to launch a city NOA solution by the end of 2025, positioning it competitively against major players [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is entering a rapid growth phase, with performance expected to improve continuously. The recent launch of the B10 model has generated significant market interest, with over 15,000 orders within the first hour of pre-sale [7]. - The company focuses on high cost-performance products, establishing a competitive advantage in the market. It maintains a self-research approach for over 70% of its core components, which supports rapid product iteration [7]. - The company is projected to achieve profitability by 2025, with net profits expected to reach 1.89 billion RMB, 22.4 billion RMB, and 43.9 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][9]. Company Overview - The company operates in the automotive industry, with a current stock price of HKD 41.50 as of March 10, 2025. The market capitalization is approximately 34.76 billion RMB [2]. - The company has a total share count of approximately 1,336.97 million, with 1,116.41 million shares listed as H shares [2]. - Major shareholder includes Chen Ailing, holding 25.09% of the shares [2]. Financial Performance - For the year 2024, the company reported a revenue of 32.16 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 92.1%. The net loss was reduced to 2.82 billion RMB, an improvement of 1.39 billion RMB compared to 2023 [7][9]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 8.38% for the year, with a significant increase in quarterly gross margin to 13.3% in Q4 2024 [7]. - Free cash flow turned positive, reaching 6.32 billion RMB, an increase of 6.64 billion RMB from the previous year [7]. Sales and Market Strategy - The company aims to sell 500,000 to 600,000 vehicles in 2025, with a target of doubling sales year-on-year. The B10 model is expected to contribute significantly to sales, with anticipated monthly sales of 20,000 to 25,000 units post-launch [7]. - The company plans to update existing models and introduce new vehicles to enhance its product lineup and brand influence [7].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic narrow passenger car market in China experienced significant retail sales growth in February 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 25.6% despite a month-on-month decline of 26.4% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In February 2025, retail sales reached 1.382 million units, while cumulative sales for January and February totaled 3.176 million units, reflecting a slight year-on-year growth of 1.1% [1][2]. - The overall market sentiment is stable due to measures aimed at curbing excessive competition and boosting automotive consumption, alongside the implementation of new policies [2]. Group 2: Manufacturer Sales Rankings - In February 2025, BYD led the wholesale sales with 318,233 units, marking a 161.4% increase from February 2024, capturing a market share of 17.8% [3]. - Geely and Chery followed with wholesale sales of 204,910 units (up 83.9%) and 173,604 units (up 26.0%), respectively [3]. - For the cumulative sales in January and February 2025, BYD also topped the list with 614,679 units sold, a 90.4% increase year-on-year [5]. Group 3: Retail Sales Rankings - In February 2025, BYD again led in retail sales with 205,711 units, a 73.2% increase from the previous year, holding a market share of 14.6% [7]. - Geely's retail sales reached 179,990 units, reflecting a 106.8% increase, while FAW-Volkswagen sold 98,100 units, a 5.9% increase [7]. - For the first two months of 2025, Geely and BYD were the top two manufacturers in retail sales, with 419,934 and 405,953 units sold, respectively [9]. Group 4: New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Sales - In February 2025, BYD led the NEV market with 205,711 units sold, a 73.2% increase, capturing 29.2% of the market share [10]. - Geely's NEV sales surged by 197.5% to 93,309 units, while Chery's sales increased by 323.5% to 30,832 units [10][11]. - Tesla China experienced a decline in sales, with 26,777 units sold, down 11.2% from the previous year [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Leap Motor (零跑汽车) with a target price of HKD 50 [1][3]. Core Insights - The pricing of the new B10 electric SUV is highly competitive, with a pre-sale price range of RMB 109,800 to 139,800, which may lead to an increase in sales forecasts for 2025 [1]. - The company is expected to achieve breakeven in 2025, with a projected gross margin increase and a significant rise in total revenue [2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are set to grow significantly, with expectations of reaching RMB 510 billion and RMB 575 billion respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Leap Motor's B10 model is anticipated to boost sales, with an upward revision of 25,000 units for the 2025 sales forecast, raising total sales expectations from 450,000 to 480,000 units [1]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the gross margin increased by 5.2 percentage points to 13.3%, with total revenue rising by 37% to RMB 13.5 billion, marking the first net profit of RMB 81 million [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2025 is expected to improve by 2.9 percentage points to 11.2%, driven by cost reductions from the Leap 3.5 platform [2]. Future Projections - Revenue for 2025 is projected to grow by 59% year-on-year, reaching RMB 510 billion, while 2026 is expected to see a net profit of RMB 1.26 billion with the launch of new models [3]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 50 based on a price-to-sales ratio of 1.2x for FY25, aligning with the average valuation multiples of new energy vehicle manufacturers in China [3].