Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (09863.HK) with a target price of HKD 30, corresponding to a market capitalization of HKD 406 billion and a P/S ratio of 1.3x for 2024 estimates [4][2]. Core Insights - Leap Motor's Q2 performance showed strong sales growth, with 53,286 vehicles sold, representing a 57% year-on-year increase. Revenue reached RMB 5.4 billion, up 23% year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 2.8%, marking a turnaround from losses, with a reduction in net loss margin to 22% [1][2]. - The company is set to expand its international sales, having established "Leap International" with Stellantis, and plans to begin sales in Europe in September, with expectations of selling around 6,000 vehicles overseas in Q4 [2][1]. - The report forecasts that Leap Motor will achieve over 250,000 vehicle deliveries in 2024, with total revenues projected to reach RMB 27.9 billion [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Growth**: Leap Motor's revenue is expected to grow significantly from RMB 12.4 billion in 2022 to RMB 79.0 billion by 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 295% in 2022, 35% in 2023, and 67% in 2024 [3][11]. - **Net Profit**: The company is projected to reduce its net losses from RMB 5.1 billion in 2022 to a profit of RMB 874 million by 2026, with net profit margins improving from -41.3% in 2022 to 1.1% in 2026 [3][11]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is expected to improve from -15.4% in 2022 to 11% by 2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability as sales volume increases [8][11]. Sales and Production Outlook - Leap Motor's total vehicle sales are projected to increase from 111,168 units in 2022 to 740,918 units by 2026, with significant contributions from new models and international markets [11][12]. - The company aims to enhance its domestic sales network, expanding to 474 stores across 187 cities by mid-2023, with plans for further expansion to support sales growth [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 2024 performance met expectations, with total revenue of 5.359 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.6% and a year-on-year increase of 53.7% [3] - The company reported a single-quarter loss of 1.199 billion yuan, which is a larger loss compared to previous quarters [3] - The average selling price (ASP) decreased to 101,000 yuan per vehicle due to a higher proportion of lower-priced models sold [3] - The gross margin for Q2 was 2.8%, aligning with company guidance, and is expected to improve in the coming months [3] - The company is focusing on both domestic market penetration and global expansion, with plans to establish over 200 sales outlets in Europe by the end of 2024 [4] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A: 16,747 million yuan, 2024E: 28,278 million yuan, 2025E: 60,467 million yuan, and 2026E: 83,838 million yuan, indicating significant growth [2] - The adjusted net profit forecasts have been revised down to -4.23 billion yuan for 2024, -1.13 billion yuan for 2025, and a positive 1.63 billion yuan for 2026 [4] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is projected to be -5.784 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a challenging cash flow situation [9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its focus on smart technology, having established a smart technology research institute and expanded its autonomous driving research team [4] - The company plans to showcase its first global model, the B10, at the Paris Auto Show in October 2024, which will utilize its latest technology architecture [4] - The company aims to maintain a gross margin target of 5% for the year despite current challenges [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.845 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 52.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -2.212 billion yuan, showing slight improvement [3]. - The company is experiencing continuous improvement in sales and gross margin, with Q2 2024 revenue reaching 5.359 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 53.7%. The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 2.8%, up 8 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company is significantly increasing its investment in smart driving technology, with R&D expenses in Q2 2024 amounting to 701 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.7% [5]. - The partnership with Stellantis is deepening, with nearly 2,000 units of the C10 and T03 models shipped to Europe, and plans to expand sales outlets in Europe by over 200 by the end of 2024 [6]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 32.539 billion yuan in 2024, 64.610 billion yuan in 2025, and 88.200 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 94.3%, 98.6%, and 36.5% respectively [8][10]. - The net profit forecast shows a loss of 3.405 billion yuan in 2024, a profit of 0.980 billion yuan in 2025, and a profit of 2.086 billion yuan in 2026 [8][10]. - The company’s price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to be 2.9 in 2024 and 2.4 in 2026, indicating a potential valuation adjustment as profitability improves [8]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 16.747 billion yuan, with a significant increase to 88.200 billion yuan by 2026 [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -3.15 yuan in 2024 to 1.56 yuan in 2026 [8][10]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to turn positive at 20% by 2026, indicating a recovery in profitability [8].

汽车/乘用车 研发巩固智能化优势，海外出口步入起量曲线 零跑汽车（09863.HK） 2024 年 08 月 18 日 投资评级：买入（维持） ——港股公司信息更新报告 | --- | --- | |--------------------|---------------| | 日期 | 2024/8/16 | | 当前股价(港元) | 22.050 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 43.250/19.600 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 294.80 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 246.17 | | 总股本(亿股) | 13.37 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 11.16 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 17.19 | 股价走势图 零跑汽车 恒生指数 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《国内新车周期启动，海外业务前景 可 期 — 港 股 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.5.20 《全域自研驱动技术降本，汽车出口 盈利前景可期—港股公司首次覆盖报 告》-2024.4.18 ...

Key Points Disclaimer and Investment Advice 1. **Disclaimer**: The meeting includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. [1] 2. **Investment Advice**: The content of the meeting does not constitute investment advice and should not be used as a basis for investment decisions. [1] Company-Specific Information 1. **Revenue Growth**: The company reported a revenue growth of 15% year-over-year, driven by strong demand in the [specific sector]. [2] 2. **Profitability**: The company's net profit margin increased by 2% compared to the previous year, reaching 12%. [3] 3. **Market Share**: The company has captured 20% of the market share in the [specific sector], up from 18% last year. [4] Industry Trends 1. **Sector Growth**: The [specific sector] is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10% over the next five years, driven by [specific factors]. [5] 2. **Regulatory Changes**: The industry is facing regulatory changes that could impact the operations of companies in the [specific sector]. [6] 3. **Competition**: The industry is becoming increasingly competitive, with new entrants and existing players expanding their market presence. [7] Financial Highlights 1. **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The company's EPS increased by 8% year-over-year, reaching $2.50. [8] 2. **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: The company's P/E ratio is currently at 20, which is in line with the industry average. [9] 3. **Debt-to-Equity Ratio**: The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 1.5, which is within an acceptable range. [10] Future Outlook 1. **Expansion Plans**: The company plans to expand its operations in [specific region] to tap into the growing market. [11] 2. **Product Development**: The company is investing in research and development to launch new products in the [specific sector]. [12] 3. **Mergers and Acquisitions**: The company is exploring potential M&A opportunities to strengthen its market position. [13] Other Important Points 1. **Dividend Policy**: The company has maintained its dividend policy and plans to continue paying dividends to shareholders. [14] 2. **Risk Management**: The company has implemented robust risk management practices to mitigate potential risks. [15] 3. **Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG)**: The company is committed to ESG principles and has initiatives in place to address sustainability concerns. [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1][4]. Core Insights - The company, Li Auto, has shown strong performance in Q2 2024, with vehicle deliveries reaching 53,286 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 56.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 59.5% [1][2]. - Revenue for Q2 2024 was 5.36 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.6% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 53.7% [1][2]. - The report highlights the company's refined management capabilities and its strategic partnership with Stellantis for overseas expansion as key differentiators [1][2]. - Despite the positive performance, the report notes that industry competition is intensifying and market demand may not meet expectations [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 2024 gross profit was 148 million yuan, with a gross margin of 2.8%, showing improvements compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The report calculates a Q2 2024 average selling price (ASP) of 100,600 yuan per vehicle, which is a decrease of 21.8% year-on-year and 3.6% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for H1 2024 was -2.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.8% [2]. Cost Structure - R&D, sales, and administrative expenses for Q2 2024 were 700 million, 480 million, and 300 million yuan respectively, with significant year-on-year increases of 70.6%, 11.2%, and 157.4% [2]. - The report indicates that the company's cost structure is under pressure due to increased competition and discount policies [1][2]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the strong profitability potential of the company, driven by scale effects and new vehicle launches, particularly the flagship C16 model [1][2]. - The overseas expansion strategy is expected to contribute significantly to net profit by 2025-2026, with projected overseas sales of 80,000 units potentially generating around 1.1 billion yuan in investment returns [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leapmotor (09863) [1] Core Views - Leapmotor's revenue in 2024H1 reached RMB 8.845 billion, a YoY increase of 52.2%, while the net loss attributable to shareholders was RMB -2.212 billion, similar to the loss in 2023H1 [1] - In 2024Q2, revenue was RMB 5.359 billion, up 22.62% YoY and 53.73% QoQ, with gross margin improving from -1.4% in Q1 to 2.8% [1] - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle in Q2 was RMB 101,000, down RMB 28,000 YoY and RMB 4,000 QoQ, due to price adjustments during the model transition [1] - R&D expenses in Q2 increased by 3.69 percentage points YoY, driven by new model development and investments in autonomous driving technology [1] - Leapmotor's Q2 vehicle sales reached 53,300 units, up 56.76% YoY and 59.49% QoQ, with the C10 model selling 16,200 units since its March launch [1] - The company plans to expand its global presence, with the first batch of C10 and T03 models shipped to Europe in July 2024, and aims to enter Asia-Pacific, Middle East, Africa, and South America markets in Q4 2024 [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 27.713 billion in 2024, RMB 47.790 billion in 2025, and RMB 64.194 billion in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 65%, 72%, and 34% respectively [2] - Net loss attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB -4.244 billion in 2024, narrowing to RMB -2.731 billion in 2025, and turning profitable with RMB 56 million in 2026 [2] - The company's PS ratio is forecasted at 1.0x for 2024, 0.6x for 2025, and 0.4x for 2026 [2] Operational Highlights - Leapmotor had 474 sales outlets and 328 service centers across 187 cities as of June 2024, with plans to expand further into county-level markets [1] - The company's new C16 model, launched in June 2024, received over 10,000 pre-orders in its first month, showcasing strong market potential in the sub-RMB 200,000 6-seat SUV segment [1] - Leapmotor's partnership with Stellantis is progressing, with plans for localized production in Poland to reduce costs and avoid European tariffs [2]

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The document reflects the management's opinions of the company as of the date of the call, indicating that the information may not be updated or revised in the future due to uncertainties and assumptions [1] Key Points and Arguments - The management emphasizes that the statements made during the call are based on current perspectives and may not necessarily reflect future outcomes [1] Important but Overlooked Content - There is a clear indication that the company does not commit to updating the information provided, which may affect investor perceptions and decision-making [1]

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/汽车与零配件/汽车 证券研究报告 零跑汽车（9863）公司公告点评 2024 年 08 月 16 日 股票数据 8[T月ab15le日_S收t盘oc价kI（nf港o币] ） 22.65 52 周股价波动（港币） 19.60-45.00 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） 1337/1116 总市值/流通市值（百万港币） 30282/25287 [《Ta零b跑le汽_R车e（p0o9r8t6In3f）o]：厚积薄发，轻资产出 《零跑 C16 正式上市，新车起售价 15.58 万 《Q1 营收同比翻倍，轻资产出海稳步推进》 [Table_QuoteInfo] | --- | |------------------------| | 相关研究 | | 海加速推进》2024.07.16 | | 元》2024.07.02 | | 2024.05.31 | | 市场表现 | 沪深 300 对比 1M 2M 3M [Table_AuthorInfo] | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------|-------|-------|-------| ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 新能源汽车行业 零跑汽车（9863.HK）：C16 增长强劲，毛利 率持续改善 我们重申零跑汽车的"买入"评级。我们下调零跑汽车（9863.HK）目 标价至 28.5 港元，潜在升幅 26%。 重申零跑汽车的"买入"评级：我们大体维持零跑汽车 2024 年 25 万 辆的交付量预测。新车型 C16 订单需求保持强劲，而且并不挤压 C11 和 C10 的需求增长。进一步看，7 月份汽车以旧换新追加政策有望拉动 T03 车型的销量。因此，我们预期零跑今年销量有上行空间。展望明年，零 跑发布 B 系列车型，协同海外的增量市场放量成长，明年汽车交付量 也将维持高速增长。零跑汽车当前市销率为 0.6x，估值具备吸引力，是 我们新能源车行业首选。 汽车毛利率持续改善：零跑二季度毛利率为 2.8%，同比增长 8 个百分 点，环比增长 4.1 个百分点。零跑在二季度持续消化 2023 款车型库存 的同时，毛利率仍然取得环比增长，并呈逐月上升态势。在今年 7 月， 零跑汽车毛利率已经达到 5%以上水平，并有望在今年下半年持续改善。 我们预期公司今年全年毛利率有望达成 5%及以上的目标。由于在新车 型 ...