Group 1: China Duty Free Group (601888.SH) - The company is positioned as a leading player in the duty-free market, benefiting from policy support for duty-free consumption, with growth potential in offshore, port, and city duty-free sales [2] - The company is enhancing its online, store, and supply chain capabilities, indicating a long-term strategic layout that is expected to yield benefits as domestic travel and consumption gradually recover [2] - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 54.69 billion, 61.02 billion, and 65.67 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be 3.72 billion, 4.65 billion, and 5.32 billion yuan, translating to EPS of 1.80, 2.25, and 2.57 yuan per share [2] Group 2: XPeng Motors (09868.HK) - The company is experiencing pressure on its main business profitability but has exceeded expectations in technical collaborations, with a strong product cycle and rapid growth overseas [3] - Sales forecasts for the company are approximately 440,000, 700,000, and 910,000 vehicles for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with total revenues projected at 77.3 billion, 124.3 billion, and 154.2 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The collaboration with Volkswagen is expected to deepen, with anticipated profits of around 2.7 billion yuan from this partnership in 2026, and the overall valuation of the company is estimated at 228.3 billion HKD [3]

Core Viewpoint - The majority of popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declining by 1.53% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Pinduoduo fell by over 1% [1] - NetEase dropped by over 4% [1] - JD.com and Baidu both decreased by over 1% [1] - Xpeng experienced a decline of over 6% [1] - Li Auto, NIO, and Bilibili each fell by over 3% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 115 / USD 29, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current price [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a narrower loss in Q3, which was better than expected, driven by high-margin revenue from collaboration with Volkswagen [1][3]. - The "dual-energy" strategy and international expansion are expected to support sales growth in 2026, with accelerated deployment of Robotaxi and humanoid robots [1][2]. - The earnings forecast has been revised downward due to increased competition in the industry, with expected sales reductions of 3% to 11% for 2025-2027 [3][6]. Financial Performance - In Q3, the company recorded a net loss of RMB 380 million, a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter reduction of 78.9% and 20.3%, respectively, outperforming the market expectation of RMB 564 million by approximately 32.5% [1]. - Revenue for Q3 reached RMB 20.4 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 102% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5% [1]. - The gross margin improved to 20.1%, up 4.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to high-margin income from the partnership with Volkswagen [1][3]. Sales and Production Outlook - The company aims to deliver between 125,000 and 132,000 vehicles in Q4, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37% to 44% [1]. - The upcoming launch of the X9 super-range extender model is expected to significantly drive profitability, with pre-order volumes three times that of the previous generation [2]. - The company plans to introduce three different price models for Robotaxi in 2026, utilizing cost-effective technologies to enhance adaptability [2]. Profitability Forecast - The revised profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at RMB -1.4 billion, RMB 1.2 billion, and RMB 3.7 billion, respectively, reflecting adjustments due to increased R&D investments in AI [3][24]. - The average selling price of vehicles is expected to decrease slightly, with a forecasted average of RMB 161,679 in 2025 [23]. Market Positioning - The company is positioned favorably in the market due to its advancements in humanoid robots and Robotaxi, which are expected to provide a competitive edge over peers [3][6]. - The report highlights the company's valuation at 1.9x FY26 P/S, which is below the historical average of 4.2x, indicating potential for growth [3][27].

业绩回顾 3Q25 业绩符合市场和我们预期 机构：中金公司 研究员：邓学/常菁/杨东冀 发布首款增程产品，强产品周期持续发力。公司近期开启预售小鹏X9 超级增程车型，新车预售价35-37 万元，我们预计其正式售价有望低于同车型的纯电版本。公司正式开启超级增程电动的产品周期，后续 的正式上市和订单表现有望再度验证公司打造爆款车型能力，结合公司后续即将于2026 年开启现有车 型在超级增程电动上的持续换代，我们继续看好公司"一车双能"战略。 全面的AI 技术布局，迈向未来出行生态。公司于近期举办的AI科技日中全面展示了在AI 领域的技术和 商业化布局，公司计划2026 年开启机器人IRON、飞行汽车和Robotaxi 正式量产，我们认为上述产品有 望加速公司从智能电动车企向综合的出行和科技平台转型。此外，公司表示小鹏图灵AI 芯片也正式获 得大众汽车定点。本次业绩会中公司也给了机器人更多的量产数据指引，包括目标2030 年实现100 万台 产销目标。国际化方面，业绩会中表示对出口业务充满信心，9 月海外汽车销量已破5000 辆。 盈利预测与估值 当前港/美股股价均对应2025 年2.0x P/S，维持跑赢行业评级 ...

Core Insights - The company reported its Q3 2025 earnings, achieving a revenue of 20.38 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 101.8% and 11.5% respectively, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -0.38 billion yuan, narrowing by 78.9% year-on-year and 20.3% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3, the company delivered 116,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 149.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.4% [1] - The automotive business revenue reached 18.05 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 105.3% and 6.9% respectively [1] - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle in Q3 was 156,000 yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.8 thousand yuan quarter-on-quarter [1] - The automotive gross margin for Q3 was 13.1%, down by 1.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, attributed to product upgrades [1] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Revenue Growth - The overall gross margin for the company in Q3 was 20.1%, an increase of 4.8 and 2.8 percentage points year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter respectively, driven by improved profitability from service and other income [2] - Revenue from service and other income reached 2.33 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 78.1% and 67.3% respectively, and a gross margin of 74.6%, up by 14.5 and 21.1 percentage points [2] - The company expanded its collaboration with Volkswagen, which became a strategic partner for the second-generation VLA, indicating potential for increased revenue from R&D services [2] Group 3: Product Development and Future Outlook - The company launched the Kunpeng Super Range Extender, featuring a fast-charging lithium iron phosphate battery with a pure electric range exceeding 450 km, and plans to release seven new models with super range extender configurations by 2026 [3] - The second-generation VLA model was introduced, enabling direct output from visual signals to action commands, with a full rollout planned for Q1 2026 [3] - The company aims to launch three Robotaxi models in 2026 and initiate trial operations in cities like Guangzhou, with plans to open the SDK for global partners [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to -1.4 billion, +2 billion, and +4.5 billion yuan respectively, reflecting expectations for growth driven by the new range extender models and AI capabilities [4] - The company maintains a "recommended" rating, anticipating new business models emerging from advancements in AI and mass production capabilities [4]

小鹏第三季收入达200亿元人民币(下同)，同比及按季分别增长102%及12%，大致符合该行预期。综合 毛利率为20.1%，同比及按季上升4.8及2.8个百分点，好过该行预期的17.7%。整车利润率为13.1%，同 比升4.5个百分点，按季跌1.2个百分点，主要因清库存而进行促销。期内非通用会计准则净亏损1.52亿 元，好过该行预期的净亏损3.98亿元。展望第四季，小鹏管理层预期交付量为12.5万至13.2万辆，同比 增长37%至44%，收入为215亿至230亿元，同比增长34%至43%。 美银证券发布研报称，下调对小鹏汽车-W(09868)的2025年销量预测1%，但将2026及27年预测分别上调 3%及5%; 将2025年非通用会计准则净亏损预测由10.94亿元下调至8.84亿元，同时将2026及27年非通用 会计准则净利润分别下调20%及9%。该行对小鹏港股目标价由105港元升至109港元，美股(XPEV.US)目 标价由27美元升至28美元，反映销量预测上调，重申"买入"评级，看好2026年强劲的产品布局。 ...

对此，21财经.南财快讯记者联系了小鹏汽车，相关部门负责人表示，公司留意到市场消息后进行了核实，发现并非源自官方披 露的数据。随后，公司与消息发布方取得联系，对方称相关内容源自一份预测分析报告，并非小鹏汽车实际生产安排，公司因 此判定上述传闻不实。 21财经.南财快讯记者查询后发现，原消息发布页内容已修改，称相关机构分析师"在一份报告中写道，在2026年至2027年期间小 鹏汽车的无人驾驶出租车年产量可能会在数千辆以内。" 此前，在11月5日的"2025小鹏科技日"上，小鹏汽车宣布将在2026年正式推出三款Robotaxi(无人驾驶出租车)车型，同时还将启动 Robotaxi试运营，并称高德将成为小鹏Robotaxi的首个全球生态合作伙伴，未来双方将共同面向全球提供Robotaxi服务，引发市 场关注。 11月19日，21财经《辟谣财知道》注意到，有市场消息称，小鹏汽车(9868.HK)将于2026-2027年每年生产数千辆自动驾驶出租 车。 11月19日，小鹏汽车港股盘中窄幅震荡，报收85.70港元/股，跌0.29%，总市值为1637亿港元。 l "M 卖4 85.850 8.50万(13) 1.00 卖3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent quarterly earnings reports from electric vehicle manufacturers, particularly Xiaopeng Motors and Leap Motor, have raised concerns in the market, leading to significant stock price declines. The automotive industry is expected to undergo changes due to factors such as price reductions in electric vehicles and the reintroduction of vehicle purchase taxes in 2026 [2][4][9]. Company Performance - Xiaopeng Motors reported a revenue of 20.38 billion yuan for Q3, a year-on-year increase of nearly 100%, with total deliveries of approximately 116,000 units, up 149.3% year-on-year. However, the company incurred a net loss of 380 million yuan, although this represented a narrowing of losses compared to previous periods. The forecast for Q4 deliveries is between 125,000 and 132,000 units, indicating a year-on-year growth of 36.6% to 44.3% [5][6]. - Leap Motor achieved a revenue of 19.45 billion yuan in Q3, nearly doubling year-on-year, and reported a net profit of 150 million yuan, marking a return to profitability despite an 8% decline from the previous quarter. The total delivery volume for Q3 was 173,800 units, with October deliveries reaching 70,300 units [5][6]. - Geely Automobile, as a traditional automaker, reported Q3 revenue of 89.2 billion yuan, a 27% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.82 billion yuan, up 59% year-on-year. The total sales volume for Q3 was 761,000 units, reflecting a 43% year-on-year growth [5][6]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The stock prices of Xiaopeng and Leap Motor fell significantly after their earnings reports, with Xiaopeng's stock dropping by 10.47% to 85.85 HKD, while Geely's stock saw a smaller decline of 1.16% [4][8]. - Analysts suggest that the automotive sector is experiencing a weak performance, with declining sales data and concerns over the impact of the vehicle purchase tax reinstatement in 2026. This may lead to a slowdown in growth for the industry, prompting companies to enhance sales volumes to mitigate margin pressures [6][10]. - The average price reduction for electric vehicles in October was 18,000 yuan, a decrease of 11.1%, indicating a competitive pricing environment as companies prepare for the upcoming tax changes [9][10].

智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报称，下调对小鹏汽车-W(09868)的2025年销量预测1%，但将2026 及27年预测分别上调3%及5%; 将2025年非通用会计准则净亏损预测由10.94亿元下调至8.84亿元，同时 将2026及27年非通用会计准则净利润分别下调20%及9%。该行对小鹏港股目标价由105港元升至109港 元，美股(XPEV.US)目标价由27美元升至28美元，反映销量预测上调，重申"买入"评级，看好2026年强 劲的产品布局。 小鹏第三季收入达200亿元人民币(下同)，同比及按季分别增长102%及12%，大致符合该行预期。综合 毛利率为20.1%，同比及按季上升4.8及2.8个百分点，好过该行预期的17.7%。整车利润率为13.1%，同 比升4.5个百分点，按季跌1.2个百分点，主要因清库存而进行促销。期内非通用会计准则净亏损1.52亿 元，好过该行预期的净亏损3.98亿元。展望第四季，小鹏管理层预期交付量为12.5万至13.2万辆，同比 增长37%至44%，收入为215亿至230亿元，同比增长34%至43%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 122.71 [6][14]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of RMB 20.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 120%, and a net loss of RMB 3.8 billion, narrowing losses by 79% year-on-year [1][4]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 reached 20.1%, marking a significant improvement due to scale effects and cost control measures [2][4]. - The company is optimistic about its growth prospects in Q4 2025 and 2026, driven by multiple growth avenues including "dual energy + AI + robotics + external collaborations" [1][4]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was RMB 20.4 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12% and a year-on-year increase of 102% [1][19]. - The gross margin improved to 20.1%, up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, with vehicle gross margin at 13.1% [2][19]. - The company expects Q4 2025 deliveries to be between 125,000 and 132,000 units, projecting revenue of RMB 21.5 to 23 billion [2][19]. Business Segments - The automotive sales segment is projected to generate RMB 118 billion in revenue for 2026, with a price-to-sales ratio of 0.95x [4][11]. - The humanoid robot business is valued at approximately RMB 40 billion, with significant advancements in humanoid capabilities expected by the end of 2026 [4][11]. - The Robotaxi business is estimated to be worth RMB 33 billion, with plans to launch three models by 2026 [4][11]. Market Position and Collaborations - The company is set to launch the new X9 super range extender vehicle, which is expected to achieve high sales volumes due to its advanced features [2][4]. - Collaboration with Volkswagen is anticipated to enhance revenue through technology service fees and new model launches [4][13]. Valuation - The overall market capitalization of the company is estimated at approximately RMB 215 billion, with a target price adjustment to HKD 122.71 [4][14]. - The report employs a segmented valuation approach, considering automotive sales, robotics, and Robotaxi businesses [4][11].