小鹏汽车（9868.HK）系列点评九 2025Q3 盈利能力改善 具身智能开启新时代 2025 年 11 月 18 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：崔琰 分析师：乔木 执业证号：S0100523110002 执业证号：S0100524100002 邮箱：cuiyan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：qiaomu@glms.com.cn ➢ 事件：公司发布 2025Q3 财报：2025Q3 实现单季营收 203.8 亿元，同比/ 环比分别为+101.8%/+11.5%。2025Q3 汽车业务毛利率为+13.1%，同比/环比 分别为+4.5pts/-1.2pts。2025Q3 non-GAAP 归母净利润为-1.5 亿元，同环比 减亏 90.1%/60.6%。 ➢ 毛利率超预期 经营质量持续优化 营 收 端 ： 2025Q3 实 现 单 季 营 收 入 203.8 亿 元 ， 同 比 / 环 比 分 别 为 +101.8%/+11.5%。其中 2025Q3 汽车业务收入为 180.5 亿元，同比/环比分别 为+105.3%/+6.9%，主要是由于新推出车型的交付量增加。其他业务方面， 2025Q3 营收由 ...

研究报告 Research Report 18 Nov 2025 小鹏汽车-W XPeng (9868 HK) (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 盈利修复延续，技术服务放量成为新增长点。公司发布三季报， 3Q25 实现营收 203.8 亿元稍逊市场预期（BBG consensus：204.5 亿），同/环比增 102%/12%；净亏损收窄至 3.8 亿元，同比缩窄 79%、环比改善 20%。季度毛利率升至 20.1%，同比提升 5 个百分 点、环比提升 3 个百分点，其中国内整车业务毛利率为 13.1% （ BBG consensus： 14.4%） ， 同比 增 4.5pcts、 环 比 小 幅回 落 1.2pcts；服务及其他业务利润率高达 74.6%，构成毛利改善的主要 增量，主要来自向车企提供的技术研发服务，尤其是对大众的项 目贡献突出。展望 2026，公司与大众的合作将从研发服务延伸至 量产车型落地，首款合作车型计划于明年初上市，并逐步深化至 芯片、核心技术授权等更高价值链环节，意味着小鹏未来从大众 获取的授权收入有望继续扩大，协同价值将进一步释 ...

Core Insights - On November 18, 2025, Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent Holdings (00700), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) were the top three companies by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 5.863 billion, 3.912 billion, and 3.075 billion respectively [1] - In the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent Holdings (00700), and SMIC (00981) also ranked as the top three, with trading amounts of 3.416 billion, 1.935 billion, and 1.640 billion respectively [1] Southbound Stock Connect - Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) had a trading amount of 5.863 billion with a net buying amount of +1.678 billion [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) recorded a trading amount of 3.912 billion with a net selling amount of -0.831 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) achieved a trading amount of 3.075 billion with a net buying amount of +0.633 billion [2] - SMIC (00981) had a trading amount of 2.588 billion with a net selling amount of -0.128 billion [2] - Other notable companies included Huahong Semiconductor (01347) with a trading amount of 2.252 billion and a net buying amount of +29.105 million [2] Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect - Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) had a trading amount of 3.416 billion with a net buying amount of +1.618 billion [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) recorded a trading amount of 1.935 billion with a net buying amount of +0.639 billion [2] - SMIC (00981) achieved a trading amount of 1.640 billion with a net buying amount of +0.502 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a trading amount of 1.518 billion with a net buying amount of +0.220 billion [2] - Other significant companies included Huahong Semiconductor (01347) with a trading amount of 1.361 billion and a net buying amount of +0.338 billion [2]

Core Insights - Three major automotive companies, Geely, Leapmotor, and Xpeng, reported record-high revenues, gross profits, and delivery volumes for Q3, while addressing market changes due to adjustments in vehicle purchase tax policies [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Geely achieved a record revenue of 89.2 billion yuan in Q3, a 15% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 27% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.96 billion yuan, up 19% year-on-year [1] - Leapmotor reported Q3 revenue of 19.45 billion yuan, a 97.3% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 150 million yuan and a gross margin of 14.5% [2] - Xpeng's Q3 revenue reached 20.38 billion yuan, a 102% year-on-year increase, with a net loss of 380 million yuan, significantly narrowing from a loss of 1.81 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] Market Outlook - The automotive market is expected to face challenges in 2026 due to the reduction of purchase tax incentives for new energy vehicles, transitioning from exemption to a 50% reduction [3] - Geely's CEO expressed confidence in the company's ability to adapt, highlighting that the market is maturing and that companies with strong strategic foundations will have advantages [3][4] - Leapmotor's management believes the tax policy changes will not significantly impact overall vehicle sales, as evidenced by the continued growth in new energy vehicle penetration [4] Strategic Initiatives - Geely plans to launch multiple new and updated models in Q4 to meet its annual sales target of 3 million vehicles, having achieved 2.477 million units by the end of October [1][4] - Leapmotor aims for a combined domestic and overseas sales target of 1 million vehicles by 2026, with a focus on expanding into new markets [4] - Xpeng is transitioning towards becoming a technology company, with plans to develop flying cars, humanoid robots, and Robotaxi services, aiming for significant advancements in AI applications [5][6] Future Innovations - Xpeng's CEO outlined plans for the launch of three Robotaxi models and humanoid robots by 2026, with initial deployments in commercial settings [5][6] - Leapmotor has completed strategic planning for its new product lines, with expectations to launch new products by 2027-2028 [6] - Geely is set to unveil a new five-year plan focused on AI and technology on January 1, 2026, emphasizing the importance of strong manufacturing capabilities in the automotive sector [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant net inflows from northbound trading, totaling HKD 74.66 billion, with notable buying in Alibaba, Xpeng Motors, and Xiaomi, while China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Tencent experienced the highest net sell-offs [1][2]. Group 1: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading recorded a net buy of HKD 74.66 billion, with HKD 27.45 billion from the Shanghai Stock Connect and HKD 47.21 billion from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1]. - The most bought stocks included Alibaba (HKD 37.70 billion buy, HKD 20.92 billion sell, net +HKD 16.78 billion), Xpeng Motors (net +HKD 8.29 billion), and Xiaomi (net +HKD 6.33 billion) [2][5]. - The most sold stocks were China National Offshore Oil Corporation (net -HKD 3.65 billion) and Tencent (net -HKD 1.91 billion) [7]. Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Alibaba (HKD 09988) received a net buy of HKD 32.96 billion, with news of its Qianwen App entering public testing and strategic collaboration with Quark App [5]. - Xpeng Motors (HKD 09868) reported a narrowed Q3 loss of HKD 3.81 billion, with adjusted losses of HKD 1.5 billion, and projected Q4 revenue between HKD 215 billion and HKD 230 billion, reflecting a growth of 33.5% to 42.8% [5]. - Xiaomi (HKD 01810) saw a net buy of HKD 8.53 billion ahead of its earnings report, which showed a Q3 revenue of RMB 113.12 billion, up 22.3%, and an adjusted net profit of RMB 11.31 billion, up 80.9% [6]. - China Hongqiao (HKD 01378) attracted a net buy of HKD 8.32 billion, with plans to place 400 million shares, raising approximately HKD 114.9 billion [6]. - Semiconductor companies like SMIC (HKD 00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (HKD 01347) received net buys of HKD 5.15 billion and HKD 3.74 billion, respectively, with SMIC projecting annual sales exceeding USD 9 billion [6][7].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 74.66 billion HKD from northbound trading on November 18, with 27.45 billion HKD from the Shanghai Stock Connect and 47.21 billion HKD from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Alibaba (09988) received a net inflow of 37.70 billion HKD, with total trading volume of 58.63 billion HKD, reflecting a net increase of 16.78 billion HKD [2] - Tencent (00700) experienced a net outflow of 15.41 billion HKD, with total trading volume of 39.12 billion HKD, resulting in a decrease of 8.31 billion HKD [2] - Xiaomi (01810) had a net inflow of 18.54 billion HKD, with total trading volume of 30.75 billion HKD, showing an increase of 6.33 billion HKD [2] - Xpeng Motors (09868) saw a net inflow of 14.30 billion HKD, with total trading volume of 20.32 billion HKD, indicating an increase of 8.29 billion HKD [2] Group 2: Company News - Alibaba's net inflow was supported by the launch of its Qianwen App, which is expected to enhance its AI capabilities and user engagement [4] - Xpeng Motors reported a narrowed net loss of 381 million HKD for Q3, with adjusted losses of 150 million HKD, and projected Q4 revenue between 21.5 billion to 23 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 33.5% to 42.8% [5] - Xiaomi's Q3 revenue reached 113.12 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, with adjusted net profit growing by 80.9% [5] - China Hongqiao (01378) received a net inflow of 8.32 billion HKD, as it plans to place 400 million shares to raise approximately 11.49 billion HKD [5] - Semiconductor companies SMIC (00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) received net inflows of 5.15 billion HKD and 3.74 billion HKD, respectively, with SMIC projecting annual sales exceeding 9 billion USD [6]

11月18日港股市场，北水成交净买入74.66亿港元，其中港股通(沪)成交净买入27.45亿港元，港股通(深)成交净买入47.21亿 港元。 北水净买入最多的个股是阿里巴巴-W(09988)、小鹏汽车-W(09868)、小米集团-W(01810)。北水净卖出最多的个股是中海 油(00883)、腾讯(00700)。 | 股票名称 | 买入额 | 卖出额 | 买卖总额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 净流入 | | | 37.70 乙 | 20.92 乙 | 58.63亿 +16.78 乙 | | 腾讯控股 | 15.41 乙 | 23.71 乙 | 39.12 乙 | | | | | -8.31 Z | | | 18.54 Z | 12.21 乙 | 30.75亿 +6.33 乙 | | | 12.30 乙 | 13.58 乙 | 25.88亿 | | | | | -1.28 亿 | | | 11.41亿 | 11.12亿 | 22.52亿 | | | | | +2910.50万 | | | 14.30亿 | 6.01亿 | 20.32亿 | | | | | +8.29 ...

18 November 2025 | 7:03AM CST Equity Research XPeng Inc. (XPEV): 3Q25 First Take: Operating profit in line, 4Q25E revenue guidance below expectation XPeng reported 3Q25 result with total revenue and operating profit in line with expectation, with higher revenue and gross margin from services and others mitigating the impact from lower vehicle sales and margin. However, 4Q25E revenue guidance was below expectation, with revenue of Rmb21.5bn-23.0bn (-17%/-16% vs.GSe/Consensus at the midpoint) and vehicle sale ...

花旗随即发表报告称，考虑到明年第一季的汽车销售淡季，下调小鹏汽车目标价，美股目标价下调3.4%至28.4美元。但仍看好公司在明年多元化增长的潜 力。 港股小鹏汽车再度大跌超10%，带动小鹏汽车(XPEV.US)美股盘前继续跌近2%，该股此前4日连跌超20%完全抹平近期涨幅。 消息上，小鹏汽车昨晚公布业绩显示，第三季股东应占亏损收窄至3.81亿元，经调整亏损收窄至1.5亿元。公司预期今年第四季度总收入将介乎215亿至230亿 元，增加约33.5%至42.8%，不及市场预期。 ...

Industry Information - As of the end of 2024, the installed capacity of new energy storage will account for over 40% of the global total installed capacity, reaching 73.76 million kilowatts or 168 million kilowatt-hours, which is 20 times that of 2020 [9][10] - China's combination driving assistance technology has reached an international leading level, with a market penetration rate of 62.58% for passenger cars equipped with such systems [8] - The global installed capacity of power batteries increased by 35% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with China leading significantly [10][15] - In October, the domestic power battery installation volume reached 84.1 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.1% [15] - The first "all-in-one battery hospital" has been established in Yibin, focusing on intelligent testing and verification of battery performance [14][17] - The global automotive roll-on/roll-off capacity at Shanghai Port continues to expand, with a significant increase in the volume of electric vehicles being shipped [8] Policy Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set the new energy vehicle credit ratio requirements at 48% for 2026 and 58% for 2027 [25] - The State Council has issued opinions to accelerate the cultivation of new application scenarios for clean energy vehicles in various sectors [27] - The implementation of the 2025 automobile scrapping and updating subsidy policy has been suspended in several provinces, including Hubei and Beijing [28][33] - Inner Mongolia aims for 35% of new cars to be new energy vehicles by 2027 [34] Company Information - CATL has begun mass production of its fifth-generation lithium iron phosphate battery, achieving breakthroughs in energy density and cycle life [12][21] - Harmony Auto has received a strategic investment of $40 million (approximately 284 million RMB) for its overseas new energy vehicle business platform [11] - BYD's total installed capacity of power batteries and energy storage batteries has exceeded 230 GWh as of October [15] - Xpeng Motors' Guangzhou factory has entered the trial production phase, aiming for mass production of flying cars [22]