Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has led to a surprising lack of interest in Pop Mart's new gold jewelry line, contrasting sharply with the previous demand for their blind boxes [1][3]. Pricing Strategy - Pop Mart has adopted a fixed pricing model for their gold products, which does not fluctuate with gold prices, unlike traditional gold retailers [3]. - The pricing for Pop Mart's gold items ranges from 980 yuan for the cheapest gold bead to 56,800 yuan for a 41-gram gold ornament, with per gram prices between 1,300 and 1,800 yuan [1][3]. - Comparatively, their collaboration with Chow Sang Sang has a per gram price of 2,185 yuan, indicating that Pop Mart's pricing strategy may not appeal to average consumers [3]. Target Market and Consumer Behavior - The primary consumers for gold jewelry are typically older women with higher purchasing power, which does not align with Pop Mart's core demographic of younger consumers [4]. - There is a potential mismatch in targeting both young consumers through IP and high-end customers through gold, which may lead to dissatisfaction on both fronts [4]. Market Expansion and Growth Potential - Pop Mart's founder has indicated that jewelry is a key area for expansion, with a 67% increase in IP derivative income projected for 2024, accounting for 29% of total revenue [3]. - Despite impressive growth in their IP derivative products, the gold market operates differently, with consumers placing a higher emphasis on price stability and value retention [4]. Strategic Challenges - The initial low demand for Pop Mart's gold products may reflect deeper strategic issues, particularly in pricing and distribution channels [4]. - If Pop Mart can effectively integrate the value of their IP with the stability of gold, they may successfully penetrate a new market [4]. - However, maintaining high premiums and limited distribution could pose risks to their overall brand ecosystem [4].

Core Insights - The new SKULLPANDA "Sleepless Theater" plush keychain series has been launched and sold out across multiple platforms immediately [2] - The premium for the hidden variant "Half-Dream Knight" has increased from 159 yuan to 749 yuan, representing a 3.7 times premium; the peak transaction price for the end box reached 1589 yuan, with only a 40% premium, marking a recent low [2] - The overall heat for SKULLPANDA is quickly returning to rational levels, indicating that future premiums may stabilize at more reasonable levels [2] Product Performance - The "Sleepless Theater" series includes 9 regular styles and 1 hidden style [2] - Recently, SKULLPANDA has released two new series: "Light Weaving Garden" plush keychains and "Winter Melody" figurines [2] - Sales and premiums for the "Winter Melody" series are weaker than those of the "Light Weaving Garden" series, with the peak premium for individual unopened blind boxes at only 0.4 times [2]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart officially launched its gold jewelry brand popop on September 12, introducing a series of solid gold products, marking a significant expansion into the jewelry market [2]. Group 1: Product Launch and Sales - The popop brand currently sells its products only in two physical stores located in Beijing and Shanghai, with no online sales channels available yet [7]. - On the first day of the launch, the sales of the solid gold series were relatively quiet compared to the immediate sell-out of Pop Mart's toy series, with no queues reported at the Beijing store [10]. - Store staff indicated that while there was no rush to purchase, many customers inquired about the new gold products, suggesting a potential interest in future purchases [10]. Group 2: Pricing and Market Positioning - The pricing of the newly launched solid gold products is lower than previous collaborations, such as the "Traveling Dream" series with Chow Sang Sang, where a 0.8-gram gold bead was priced at approximately ¥1748, translating to about ¥2185 per gram [10]. - Prior to the introduction of solid gold items, popop's products primarily used lower-value materials like S925 silver and zircon, with prices ranging from ¥319 to ¥2699, targeting the light luxury market alongside brands like Pandora and Swarovski [10][12]. Group 3: Revenue and Growth Potential - The revenue from Pop Mart's IP-derived products is projected to grow by 67% year-on-year in 2024, accounting for 29% of total revenue, indicating a strong market demand for its IP products [12]. - The founder of Pop Mart expressed a desire to explore various product categories, with jewelry being a significant area of focus for expansion [12].

Core Insights - The 2025 China International Service Trade Fair features a vibrant cultural and tourism service section, showcasing a variety of cultural and creative products that bridge ancient and modern cultures, enhancing cultural consumption [5][6][8] Group 1: Cultural and Creative Products - A range of innovative cultural products debuted at the fair, including the "Observation Bag" from "Beijing Gifts," designed to commemorate historical events, and an AI interactive plush toy modeled after the giant panda, appealing to families [5][6] - The fair introduced a dedicated sales area by the Beijing Cultural Relics Bureau, allowing easy access to popular cultural products that previously required long queues [6][8] Group 2: Integration of Traditional Culture - The theme of "Cultural + Non-Heritage" was prominent, with products like the Bubble Mart's non-heritage collection and Tangrenfang's AI-enhanced 3D figurines revitalizing traditional crafts [7][8] - Traditional crafts were showcased through hands-on experiences, such as handmade paper products, allowing attendees to engage directly with cultural heritage [7] Group 3: New Consumption Ecosystem - The fair emphasized transforming cultural consumption from merely purchasing products to enjoying experiences, exemplified by the "National Cultural Industry Innovation Experimental Zone" in Chaoyang District [9] - New IPs like "He Xi" and "Shui Yun Er" were launched, designed to attract younger audiences and promote cultural awareness through engaging products [9]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart is aggressively entering the gold jewelry market with its new brand popop, aiming to capture a share of the market traditionally dominated by established brands like Lao Pu Gold [1] Group 1: Pop Mart's New Initiatives - Pop Mart launched its first gold series products under the popop brand on September 12, featuring items made of pure gold, including beads, pendants, gold bars, and ornaments, utilizing its IP Baby Molly [1] - The popop brand is part of Pop Mart's strategic expansion for 2025, with a focus on becoming a jewelry brand, having opened its first store in Shanghai in June [1] - Pop Mart has invested heavily in high-value locations and store designs for the popop brand, incorporating core IPs like MOLLY and SKULLPANDA into its jewelry offerings [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Stock Performance - Despite the launch of the gold products, Pop Mart's stock price has declined by 15.74% since reaching a historical high of 339.8 HKD per share on August 26, closing at 276.8 HKD on September 12 [1] - The decline in stock price is attributed to significant price fluctuations in the labubu plush series in the secondary market, with prices dropping from nearly 600 RMB to 133 RMB for certain items [2] - The price drop is linked to Pop Mart's change in supply strategy, which led to a surge in market supply, increasing the monthly production capacity of labubu plush products to 30 million, a tenfold increase compared to early 2025 [2] Group 3: Long-term Strategy and Market Positioning - In the long term, the current market pressures may benefit Pop Mart's development, as reliance on a single IP for revenue is risky, similar to Disney's strategy of continuously creating new IPs [3] - Pop Mart's management aims for a broader circulation of multiple IPs rather than depending on the high resale value of a single product in the secondary market [3] - The company faces challenges from middlemen in the secondary market, who have been able to mark up prices significantly, which is not aligned with Pop Mart's business objectives [3] Group 4: Brand Influence and Future Outlook - The global success of labubu is attributed to its circulation rather than its resale value, gaining influence through social media exposure [4] - Pop Mart's management seeks to return to this foundational principle of broader influence and penetration for its IPs [4] - To regain market confidence, Pop Mart needs to develop more IPs of the same caliber as labubu and ensure the rapid growth of new ventures like popop [4]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the gold jewelry series by Popop, a subsidiary of Pop Mart, reflects the company's strategy to extend its IP value and cater to the growing demand for emotional consumption among young consumers [2][12]. Group 1: Product Launch and Strategy - Popop officially released its first gold series, featuring products like gold beads, pendants, gold bars, and ornaments, on September 12 [2]. - The gold series is part of Pop Mart's core strategy to focus on IP-driven group development, with the global flagship store opening in June being a significant step in this direction [2][7]. - The gold products are priced using a fixed-price model, with prices ranging from 980 yuan to 56,800 yuan, allowing for higher premium margins compared to weight-based pricing [6]. Group 2: Consumer Engagement and Market Response - The Baby Molly gold series attracted significant consumer interest, with customers queuing outside the store at opening time [5][6]. - A consumer reported purchasing nine gold beads for approximately 15,000 yuan, indicating strong demand for the products [2]. - The emotional value associated with IP products is driving consumer interest, as evidenced by the positive feedback from customers who appreciate the blend of fashion and investment value [12]. Group 3: Company Performance and Future Plans - Pop Mart's half-year report for 2025 showed impressive growth, with revenue reaching 13.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and adjusted net profit of 4.71 billion yuan, up 362.8% [12]. - The company plans to open multiple global flagship stores by 2025, indicating a strategy of continuous expansion and brand development [11].

Group 1: Gold Price Surge - Gold prices reached a historical high of $3674.27 per ounce, surpassing the previous peak of $850 per ounce from January 21, 1980, when adjusted for inflation [1] - The gold price has increased approximately 5% this month and nearly 40% year-to-date [1] - Major banks in China, including Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China, have raised investment thresholds and adjusted margin requirements for precious metals due to increased volatility in gold prices [1][2] Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Multiple factors, including tax cuts and tariffs from the Trump administration, have weakened the appeal of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, leading to increased investment in gold [2] - Gold is viewed as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, a role it has played for centuries [2] - Central banks have been diversifying their foreign reserves, with gold now being the second-largest reserve asset globally, surpassing the euro [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Predictions - Analysts suggest that the current gold price surge is characterized by lower volatility compared to the 1980s, attributed to enhanced market liquidity and the accessibility of gold through ETFs [2][3] - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could reach $3700 by the end of 2025 and potentially exceed $4000 by mid-2026, with scenarios suggesting prices could touch $4500 to $5000 if there is a significant outflow from dollar assets [2] Group 4: New Product Launches in Jewelry Sector - Popop, a jewelry brand under Pop Mart, launched its first gold product line, featuring items priced between ¥980 and ¥56,800, with the most expensive item being a 41g gold ornament [4][10] - The pricing strategy for Popop's gold products is a fixed price model, similar to traditional gold shops, rather than fluctuating with gold prices [6][10] - The new product line is part of Pop Mart's strategy to expand into the jewelry sector, aiming to leverage its IP for broader market opportunities [10]

Market Overview - On September 12, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.16%, closing at 26,388.16 points, with a net inflow of HKD 7.331 billion through the southbound trading channel [2] - The total trading volume for the southbound trading on that day was HKD 157.992 billion, with a net buying amount of HKD 7.331 billion [2] Southbound Trading Details - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's southbound trading had a total transaction amount of HKD 97.259 billion, with a net selling of HKD 1.487 billion; while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's southbound trading had a transaction amount of HKD 60.733 billion, with a net buying of HKD 8.818 billion [2] - The most actively traded stock in the Shanghai southbound trading was Alibaba-W, with a transaction amount of HKD 87.744 billion and a net buying of HKD 2.076 billion, closing with a price increase of 5.44% [2] - In the Shenzhen southbound trading, Alibaba-W also led with a transaction amount of HKD 63.889 billion and a net buying of HKD 2.304 billion, maintaining the same closing price increase of 5.44% [3] Active Stocks Summary - The top ten actively traded stocks in the southbound trading included Alibaba-W, Meituan-W, and SMIC, with transaction amounts of HKD 87.744 billion, HKD 50.99 billion, and HKD 37.02 billion respectively [2] - Meituan-W had the highest net selling amount of HKD 1.635 billion, closing flat [2] - Other notable stocks included Tencent Holdings and Xiaomi Group, with transaction amounts of HKD 32.17 billion and HKD 23.17 billion respectively, and Tencent saw a net buying of HKD 0.744 billion [3] Additional Stock Performance - The stock performance of various companies showed that 8 out of the top ten stocks had net buying, with Alibaba-W leading at HKD 2.304 billion [3] - The stock of Sanofi had the highest net selling amount of HKD 0.295 billion, while its closing price increased by 1.81% [4]

Group 1: Popop's New Product Launch - Popop, a jewelry brand under Pop Mart, launched its first gold product line featuring 20+ SKUs, including gold beads, pendants, gold bars, and ornaments, available in Beijing and Shanghai stores [1] - The price range for the new gold series is between 980 and 56,800 yuan, with the per gram price concentrated between 1,300 and 1,700 yuan [1] - The most expensive item is a gold ornament weighing approximately 41 grams, priced over 50,000 yuan [1] Group 2: Labubu Series Price Fluctuations - The Labubu mini series, launched on August 28, initially sold out quickly, with secondary market prices for a complete set reaching 3,200 yuan, and hidden items nearing 1,000 yuan [2] - As of September 12, the average transaction price for the mini Labubu on the Dewu app dropped to 142 yuan, with complete sets falling to 1,899 yuan, indicating a significant price decline from the initial launch [2][4] - Recent data from the Xianyu platform shows a 7-day average transaction price of 105 yuan for Labubu, with 67% of users expecting further price drops [4] Group 3: Market Analysis and Future Outlook - Economic expert Pan Helin noted that the price decline of Labubu could lead to a continuous downward trend, emphasizing the correlation between product demand and company stock prices [6] - The report from Zhongtai Securities highlighted that Pop Mart has developed a gradient IP matrix and successfully created the world-class IP Labubu, suggesting long-term commercial potential [6] - However, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of consumer interest in IP derivatives and the potential for declining product sales if new IPs are not continuously developed [6]

Group 1 - The core argument is that the speculative bubble in the collectible toy market, particularly around Labubu, is rapidly deflating as the consensus on its value dissipates, leading to significant price drops [2][10][12] - The price of Labubu collectibles has seen a drastic decline, with the stock price of Pop Mart dropping 7.5% to below 300 HKD, and previously high resale prices for Labubu collectibles falling to half their original value [2][10] - The market for collectible toys is shifting from speculation to rational collection, indicating a change in consumer sentiment and demand dynamics [2][10] Group 2 - The initial high auction prices for Labubu collectibles were driven by speculative investment rather than genuine interest, similar to practices seen in antique auctions [3][4] - The concept of value consensus is crucial for the sustainability of collectible prices; without a strong collective agreement on value, prices are likely to fall [5][10] - The collectible toy market, including Labubu, faces challenges in maintaining value due to the lack of inherent utility and the rapid changes in consumer interest [10][12] Group 3 - The comparison between the collectible toy market and the sneaker market highlights that both are subject to speculative bubbles, with sneaker prices also experiencing significant declines in recent years [10][12] - The need for Pop Mart to invest more in marketing and IP collaborations to sustain interest in Labubu may impact its profitability in the long run [12] - The dynamics of the collectible market suggest that it operates like a "hot potato" game, where the last holder may face significant losses as interest wanes [2][12]