Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the rare earth industry, driven by a recovery in market conditions and increased sales profits, with a projected net profit for Guangsheng Nonferrous of 40 to 50 million yuan in Q1 2025, marking a significant turnaround from losses in the previous year [3] - The agricultural chemicals sector is also showing signs of recovery, with Limin Co. forecasting a net profit of 100 to 120 million yuan in Q1 2025, a substantial increase from a loss of 8.49 million yuan in the same period last year, attributed to rising product prices and a favorable market environment [3] - Tiande Yu expects a revenue increase of 60.52% year-on-year, with net profit reaching approximately 70.57 million yuan in Q1 2025, driven by the expansion of new products and markets, particularly in display driver chips and electronic price tag chips [4] Industry Analysis - The home appliance export sector faces significant challenges due to the recent implementation of a 10% minimum baseline tariff and additional tariffs that could raise the average tariff rate to around 80% for Chinese white goods exported to the U.S., creating a substantial impact on trade dynamics [6][7] - Companies with diversified production capacities and lower exposure to the U.S. market, such as TCL and Hisense, are better positioned to withstand tariff pressures due to localized production strategies [7] - Smaller enterprises that rely heavily on exports to the U.S. and lack overseas operations are likely to face severe cost pressures and may struggle to remain competitive, potentially leading to reduced orders and financial difficulties [8]

[Table_Summary] 公司 2024 年实现营业收入 585.30 亿元，同比增长 9.17%，实现归母净利润 22.46 亿元，同比 增长 7.17%，实现扣非归母净利润 18.17 亿元，同比增长 4.88%。公司 2024 年四季度营业收 入 178.80 亿元，同比增长 24.26%，实现归母净利润 9.36 亿元，同比增长 100.14%，实现扣 非归母净利润 8.30 亿元，同比增长 121.56%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW408 丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨海信视像（600060.SH） [Table_Title] 运营效率持续优化，2024Q4 业绩增长亮眼 报告要点 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 海信视像（600060.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 运营效率持续优化，2024Q4 业绩增长亮眼 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司披露年报：公司 2024 年实现营业收入 585.30 ...

事件描述 公司披露年报：公司2024 年实现营业收入585.30 亿元，同比增长9.17%，实现归母净利润22.46 亿元， 同比增长7.17%，实现扣非归母净利润18.17 亿元，同比增长4.88%。公司2024年四季度营业收入178.80 亿元，同比增长24.26%，实现归母净利润9.36 亿元，同比增长100.14%，实现扣非归母净利润8.30 亿 元，同比增长121.56%。 事件评论 积极把握政策机遇，产品结构持续改善。公司2024 年实现营业收入585.30 亿元，同比增长9.17%，分产 品来看，智慧显示终端业务营收466.34 亿元，同比增长13.03%，主要受益于中国市场大尺寸产品在"国 补"政策补贴推动下市场渗透率持续提升，2024 年海信系电视在75+、85+、98+英寸产品市场的零售量 与零售额占有率均位于行业第一，同时海信系电视在全球市场产品结构也在不断优化，2024 年海信 Mini LED 产品同比增长162.7%，75 英寸以上大屏市场份额达19.8%，新显示业务营收67.71 亿元，同比 增长3.9%，主要系公司坚持自主品牌战略，持续开拓海外市场，其中2024 年商用显示业务 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumer discretionary sector [7] Core Insights - The escalation of tariffs is reshaping global supply chains, leading to a structural impact on China's exports, while domestic demand is expected to benefit [1][11] - Companies with high domestic sales ratios are positioned to capitalize on the emerging opportunities in the local market as domestic brands continue to rise [1] Summary by Sections Home Appliances - Major home appliance companies like Haier are leveraging localization and production in Mexico to mitigate tariff impacts, thereby strengthening their market share in the U.S. [2][15] - The black appliance sector is seeing a shift towards Mexican production to buffer supply chain pressures, with companies like Hisense and TCL benefiting from cost control [2][16] Cleaning Appliances - The U.S. market remains highly dependent on Chinese manufacturing for cleaning appliances, with significant price increases expected due to high tariffs on imports from China and Vietnam [3][20] - Chinese companies are rapidly iterating products to gain market share in the U.S., with brands like Roborock surpassing local competitors in revenue [25][26] Light Industry and Home Furnishings - Southeast Asian production is likely to face challenges due to increased tariffs, but Chinese companies are actively seeking to adapt by expanding export regions and enhancing price transmission capabilities [4][29] - The reliance on the U.S. market for home furnishings has decreased, with exports expected to recover post-tariff adjustments [30][31] Cross-Border E-commerce - The supply chain disruptions are evident, but the competitive landscape may improve as smaller sellers face greater pressure due to the cancellation of the $800 tax exemption policy [5][39] - Major players are expected to benefit from market share consolidation as smaller competitors exit the market [40][41]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model 1: Volume Timing Signal - **Model Name**: Volume Timing Signal - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses volume data to generate timing signals for broad-based indices. - **Model Construction Process**: The model evaluates the volume timing signals for various broad-based indices and assigns a cautious view if the signals indicate a potential downturn. - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a cautious outlook for all major broad-based indices as of April 3, 2025[23][24]. Model 2: Momentum Sentiment Indicator - **Model Name**: Momentum Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the proportion of stocks with positive returns within an index to gauge market sentiment. - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the proportion of stocks in the CSI 300 index with positive returns over a specified period. - Apply smoothing with two different window periods to capture the trend. - Generate signals based on the relationship between the short-term and long-term smoothed lines. - Formula: $$ \text{Proportion of Rising Stocks in CSI 300} = \frac{\text{Number of Stocks with Positive Returns in N Days}}{\text{Total Number of Stocks in CSI 300}} $$ - When the short-term smoothed line is above the long-term smoothed line, it indicates a bullish market sentiment[24][25][27]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model can quickly capture upward opportunities but may miss out on gains during prolonged market exuberance. It also has limitations in predicting downturns[25]. Model 3: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Model Name**: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the eight moving average system to determine the trend state of the CSI 300 index. - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the eight moving averages for the CSI 300 index with parameters 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and 233. - Assign values based on the number of moving averages the current price exceeds. - Generate signals based on the number of moving averages the current price exceeds. - Formula: $$ \text{Number of Moving Averages Exceeded} = \sum_{i=1}^{8} \mathbb{1}(\text{Price} > \text{MA}_i) $$ - If the number exceeds 5, it indicates a bullish sentiment[32][33]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model indicates that the CSI 300 index is currently in a non-optimistic sentiment zone[35]. Model Backtesting Results 1. **Volume Timing Signal**: All broad-based indices have a cautious view as of April 3, 2025[24]. 2. **Momentum Sentiment Indicator**: The proportion of rising stocks in the CSI 300 index is around 61%[25]. 3. **Moving Average Sentiment Indicator**: The CSI 300 index is in a non-optimistic sentiment zone[35]. Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor 1: Cross-sectional Volatility - **Factor Name**: Cross-sectional Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor measures the dispersion of returns among index constituents to gauge the alpha environment. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the cross-sectional volatility of the constituents of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices. - Compare the recent values with historical averages to determine the alpha environment. - Formula: $$ \text{Cross-sectional Volatility} = \sqrt{\frac{1}{N-1} \sum_{i=1}^{N} (R_i - \bar{R})^2} $$ - Where \( R_i \) is the return of stock \( i \) and \( \bar{R} \) is the average return[41]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The recent cross-sectional volatility indicates a better short-term alpha environment for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices, while the CSI 1000 index shows a deteriorating alpha environment[40]. Factor 2: Time-series Volatility - **Factor Name**: Time-series Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor measures the volatility of index constituents over time to gauge the alpha environment. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the time-series volatility of the constituents of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices. - Compare the recent values with historical averages to determine the alpha environment. - Formula: $$ \text{Time-series Volatility} = \sqrt{\frac{1}{T-1} \sum_{t=1}^{T} (R_t - \bar{R})^2} $$ - Where \( R_t \) is the return at time \( t \) and \( \bar{R} \) is the average return[43]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The recent time-series volatility indicates a better short-term alpha environment for the CSI 300 index, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices show a mixed alpha environment[42]. Factor Backtesting Results 1. **Cross-sectional Volatility**: - CSI 300: Recent quarterly average 1.83%, 51.24% of the two-year range[41]. - CSI 500: Recent quarterly average 2.10%, 47.62% of the two-year range[41]. - CSI 1000: Recent quarterly average 2.48%, 51.79% of the two-year range[41]. 2. **Time-series Volatility**: - CSI 300: Recent quarterly average 0.57%, 49.38% of the two-year range[43]. - CSI 500: Recent quarterly average 0.43%, 40.48% of the two-year range[43]. - CSI 1000: Recent quarterly average 0.26%, 50.20% of the two-year range[43].

Core Insights - The recent surge in demand for Chinese products in U.S. supermarkets is driven by consumer panic over rising prices due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1][5][8] - The phenomenon reflects a broader trend of American consumers stockpiling goods in anticipation of future price increases, leading to empty shelves across various product categories [3][5] Group 1: Consumer Behavior - American consumers are engaging in panic buying, with many running from store to store to secure Chinese products like televisions [3][5] - Social media has become a platform for sharing "stockpiling strategies," indicating a widespread fear of price hikes [5] - The types of products being hoarded include home appliances, instant noodles, and essential clothing items, showcasing a diverse range of consumer needs [7] Group 2: Economic Impact - The imposition of tariffs has led to a significant increase in prices, with some supermarket items rising by 30%, causing distress among consumers [8] - U.S. importers are facing an additional burden of over $80 billion in tariff costs in 2023, contributing to economic strain [8] - The reliance on Chinese manufacturing is highlighted, as 9 out of 10 products in the U.S. are sourced from China, underscoring the challenges of the tariff policy [8][10] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The current situation illustrates a shift in Chinese manufacturing from low-end production to high-quality, cost-effective goods, enhancing its market position [9] - Brands like Hisense and DJI are breaking the stereotype of being "cheap" by leveraging technological innovation to capture market share in high-end segments [9] - The pandemic has reinforced the resilience of the Chinese supply chain, as U.S. companies have had to revert to Chinese manufacturers after disruptions in Southeast Asia [10] Group 4: Global Trade Perspective - The buying frenzy in U.S. supermarkets serves as a microcosm of the complexities of globalization, where trade barriers ultimately harm consumers [11] - Experts suggest that protectionist measures do not benefit the economy, advocating for cooperation and innovation as the path forward [11] - The current scenario is a critique of U.S. tariff policies and a testament to the strength of Chinese manufacturing capabilities [11]

Core Viewpoint - The competitive landscape of the global television market reveals that while Chinese brands dominate in terms of unit sales, they still lag behind Japanese and Korean brands in terms of sales revenue, indicating a need for improvement in product value and pricing strategy [1][9]. Global Television Market Overview - In 2024, global television sales are projected to reach 208 million units, reflecting a modest growth of approximately 3.5% [1]. - The top five brands in the global television market are Samsung, TCL, Hisense, LG, and Xiaomi, with market shares of 17.6%, 13.9%, 12.3%, 10.8%, and 5.1% respectively [11]. Brand Performance - **Samsung**: Holds the largest market share at 17.6%, with sales exceeding 36.6 million units [7]. - **TCL**: Ranks second with a market share of 13.9%, selling nearly 29 million units [6]. - **Hisense**: Comes in third with a market share of 12.3% and over 25 million units sold [5]. - **LG**: Fourth place with a market share of 10.8% and sales of over 22 million units [4]. - **Xiaomi**: Fifth place with a market share of 5.1%, selling over 10 million units [3]. Revenue Comparison - In terms of sales revenue, Samsung leads with 28.3%, followed by LG at 16.1%, while TCL and Hisense have 12.4% and 10.5% respectively [9]. - Despite higher unit sales, Chinese brands like TCL and Hisense do not match LG's revenue, indicating a disparity in pricing and product value [9]. Market Trends - The trend shows that while Chinese television brands are on an upward trajectory in terms of sales volume, Japanese and Korean brands are experiencing a decline [9]. - This suggests potential for future growth in the Chinese television market, with the possibility of a shift in market dynamics over the next five years [9].

事件：2025 年3 月30 日，海信视像发布2024 年报。24 年公司营收/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 585/22/18 亿元，同比分别为+9.17/+7.17/+4.88%，其中24Q4 分别为179/9/8 亿元，同比分别为 +24.26/+100.14/+121.56%。 24 年结构升级带动智慧显示终端收入增长13.03%，海外收入双位数以上增长。 分产品看：24 年智慧显示终端/新显示新业务/其他业务收入分别为466/68/5 亿元，同比分别为 +13.03/+3.90/-16.41%。 智慧显示终端收入增长主要得益于大屏化、MiniLED 等产品的快速发展。 2）费用端：24A 销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为5.84/1.78/4.06/0.09%，同比分 别-0.89/+0.04/-0.38/+0.11pct ， 其中24Q4 分别为5.15/1.93/3.71/-0.04%，同比分别-2.3/+0.1/-0.9/+0.0pct， 费用率控制良好。 3）净利率：24A/24Q4 分别为4.39/5.64%，同比分别-0.37/+1.26pct。 投资建议：公司为黑电行业龙头，持续 ...

1）海信视像 （观富资产参与公司电话会议） 根据市场公开信息及4月2日披露的机构调研信息，知名私募观富资产近期对1家上市公司进行了调研， 相关名单如下： 机构简介： 观富（北京）资产管理有限公司，成立于2015年。观富资产恪守逆向思维，信仰均值回归，精通价值评 估，于市场和行业噪音中遴选优质投资标的，为投资者贡献安心安全的投资选择。观富资产由中国基金 业首批开放式基金经理带队，公司所有合伙人均在"老10家"公募基金公司长期担任研究、投资部门的重 要管理职务， 以大型资产管理平台的视角，亲历资本市场多年起落，将严谨的风险管理体系和完善的 投资管理流程作为立足之本，为投资者创造风险调整后的长期超额收益。 调研纪要：2024年，海信视像实现营业收入585.30亿元，同比增长9.17%，净利润22.46亿元，同比增长 7.17%。公司持续推进全球化发展战略，北美、欧洲、日本及新兴市场均取得显著进展，品牌认知度和 市场份额提升。公司在ULED、Micro LED、激光显示三大核心技术上取得重大突破，推出多款创新产 品。新显示新业务收入67.71亿元，激光显示业务在激光电视、智能投影等领域实现技术突破和产品升 级。"高端 ...

2024年，是一个与体育深度相关联的一年，6月份至7月份，欧洲杯于德国举办；7月份至8月份，奥运会比赛在巴黎举行。 观看比赛，自然屏幕越大越好，这对于彩电品牌来说是一个绝佳的宣传机会。 海信视像作为全球彩电龙头企业之一，自然不会放过这个绝佳的宣传时机，一方面投入大量资金赞助欧洲杯，另一方面积极在奥运会期间开展营销活动。 在过去相当利好的一年，海信视像取得的结果如何呢？ 业绩公布，喜中有忧 近日，海信视像公布了2024年报。 海信视像实现营收585.30亿元，同比增长了9.17%，实现扣非净利润18.17亿元，同比增长了4.88%。 从整体业绩来看，这是一份不错的喜报，在如今行业竞争越来越激烈，电视行业革新情况下，海信能继续保持增长，说明实力，依旧强悍。 但从投资者角度来讲，投资一个公司是对于一个公司的预期看好，如今能实现增长，以后增长情况会如何呢？ 海信视像增长的背后，也存在增长乏力的趋势。 2020年至2023年，海信视像的营收增长分别为15.28%、19.04%、-2.27%、17.22%。 除了2022年，由于行业整体受疫情、自身产品结构调整、全球彩电整体下滑等多种因素影响，造成业绩下滑外，其余年份海信 ...