证券代码：600176 证券简称：中国巨石 公告编号：2025-083 中国巨石股份有限公司 关于 2025 年度第十期科技创新债券发行结果的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 中国巨石股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 4 月 11 日召开 2024 年年度股东会，审议通过了《关于公司及子公司 2025 年发行公司债及非金融企业 债务融资工具的议案》，同意公司及巨石集团有限公司在 2024 年年度股东会批准 该议案之日起至 2025 年年度股东会召开之日的期间内，在相关法律法规、规范性 文件规定的可发行债务融资工具额度范围内，根据资金需求及市场情况以一次或 分次形式发行包括但不限于公司债、短期融资券、超短期融资券、中期票据等在 内的本币债务融资工具，发行方式包括公开发行和非公开定向发行。 近日，公司发行了 2025 年度第十期科技创新债券，发行总额为人民币 4 亿元， 募集资金已于 2025 年 12 月 8 日到账。现将发行结果公告如下： | 名称 | 中国巨石股份有限公司 | 简称 ...

Group 1: Cement Industry - The effect of capacity reduction is expected to become evident by 2026, improving the supply-demand balance and enhancing price recovery, leading to gradual profit restoration for companies [1] - In November, cement prices are expected to trend weakly due to seasonal demand reduction, despite a significant increase in kiln stoppage rates and a marginal decrease in clinker inventory [2] - The cement price is anticipated to stabilize until March next year, supported by high stoppage rates in northern regions and strong price stabilization intentions from companies [2] Group 2: Glass Fiber Industry - Demand for high-end coarse yarn has slightly declined, but mainstream electronic yarn demand continues to support price increases, with a marginal rise in coarse yarn prices [3] - The electronic yarn market shows stable demand, with prices increasing slightly, while high-end products maintain a favorable market outlook due to limited new capacity release [3] Group 3: Consumer Building Materials - Retail demand for home decoration materials weakened in October, with a year-on-year decline of 8.3%, while the cumulative retail sales from January to October grew by only 0.5% [4] - The ongoing urban renewal strategy is expected to release demand for renovation and old housing improvement, enhancing the market penetration of high-quality green building materials [4] Group 4: Float Glass Industry - The float glass market shows no significant changes in demand, with reduced production capacity leading to a contraction in total industry supply, yet prices continue to decline due to high inventory levels [5] - Short-term demand is expected to remain weak, but inventory pressure may ease, leading to a forecast of price stabilization [5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch in the cement sector include Huaxin Cement, Shangfeng Cement, and Anhui Conch Cement [5] - In the glass fiber sector, focus on China Jushi and China National Materials [5] - For consumer building materials, recommended companies include Oriental Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, Sankeshu, and Tubao [5] - In the float glass sector, Qibin Group is highlighted for investment [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for both the construction and building materials sectors [10]. Core Viewpoints - The construction and building materials sector is expected to experience a spring rally in 2026, driven by improvements in construction PMI, order volume, and favorable market conditions such as a later Spring Festival and strong domestic excavator sales [13][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend and price-increasing stocks, recommending companies with stable performance and high dividend yields, as well as traditional building materials with price increase potential [13][19]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: sustainable growth in renovation, thorough industry clearing in construction materials, and opportunities in high-quality leading companies in various segments [14][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights a potential spring rally for the building materials sector, supported by fiscal improvements and strong domestic machinery sales [19]. - Historical data shows that the building materials index has a high probability of outperforming the market in Q1, with a 57% chance of rising based on past performance [15]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends several companies, including China Chemical, China National Materials, and Xinyi Glass, with target prices and buy ratings [10][38]. - Specific recommendations include: - China Chemical (601117 CH) - Target Price: 12.05 - China National Materials (600970 CH) - Target Price: 14.23 - Xinyi Glass (868 HK) - Target Price: 9.54 - Others include China United Plastic, Jinggong Steel Structure, and Dongfang Yuhong [10][38]. Market Dynamics - Recent data indicates a 1.2% week-on-week increase in national cement prices, while the average price of float glass has risen by 2.3% [2][28]. - The report notes that the domestic float glass market is stabilizing, with some regions experiencing price increases due to supply constraints [28][30]. - The electronic fabric market is also showing signs of price increases, driven by demand from PCB clients [25][33]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued demand in the cleanroom engineering and special electronic fabric sectors, with a focus on companies that can adapt to new production capabilities and traditional industry upgrades [14][19]. - The construction sector is expected to benefit from urban renewal initiatives and the ongoing recovery of the real estate market, with a focus on renovation and construction materials [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1]. Core Insights - The construction materials sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.55%, outperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices, which increased by 1.28% and 0.72%, respectively, resulting in excess returns of 0.27% and 0.82% [4]. - Cement prices have increased to 354.7 CNY/ton, up by 4.5 CNY/ton from the previous week, but down by 70.3 CNY/ton compared to the same period last year [4][14]. - The average cement inventory level is at 66.4%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from the previous week, while the average cement shipment rate is 44.6%, down by 0.8 percentage points week-on-week [21]. - The report highlights that infrastructure construction is expected to be a key driver for economic stability in the short term, with recommendations to focus on companies in the infrastructure supply chain and home improvement sectors [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - **Cement**: The national average cement price is 354.7 CNY/ton, with significant regional price increases noted in the Yangtze River Delta and Southwest regions [4][14]. The average shipment rate has decreased to 44.6% [21]. - **Glass**: The average price of float glass is reported at 1163.9 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 16.0 CNY/ton but a year-on-year decrease of 254.7 CNY/ton [48]. The inventory level for float glass is 5675 million weight boxes, down by 83 million from the previous week [50]. - **Fiberglass**: The market remains stable with no significant price changes, and the focus is on the demand recovery in the downstream sectors [4]. 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes that the construction materials sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, particularly in the southern regions, while northern regions face challenges due to seasonal weather impacts [4]. 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation Table - The construction materials sector has shown resilience with a positive performance compared to broader market indices, indicating potential investment opportunities [4]. 4. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in infrastructure, home improvement, and export-oriented sectors, including Conch Cement, Oriental Yuhong, and China Communications Construction [4].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the non-ferrous metals industry, particularly copper, aluminum, and the construction materials sector, as well as the gold market and its outlook [1][2][4][5][6][9]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper Market**: Short-term price surge due to U.S. tariff expectations leading to an expanded price gap between LME and COMEX. The U.S. market pricing is deviating from fundamentals. By 2026, the U.S. siphoning effect may create tight inventory risks in non-U.S. regions, but a return to fundamental pricing could occur if LME experiences warehouse congestion or tariff expectations decrease, leading to potential oversupply risks [1][5]. - **Aluminum Market**: Prices are expected to follow copper trends, with global supply affected by electricity shortages. Domestic production has peaked, and high overseas energy costs, along with investment cycle constraints, will likely lead to a decline in supply growth from 2025 to 2030. A bull market is needed to strengthen price incentives, with occasional events also pushing prices up [1][5]. Gold Market - The outlook for the gold market remains optimistic, driven by central bank purchases, ETF investments, and potential gold tokenization. Gold prices are expected to rise significantly by 2026, with current stock valuations between 10 to 13 times earnings being attractive [1][4]. Construction Materials - The construction materials sector is experiencing supply contraction under profit pressure. Recommendations include focusing on consumer building materials and leading fiberglass companies. Differentiation in product offerings is allowing some companies to achieve excess profits, with leading float glass companies expected to balance supply through self-initiated repairs, aiding profit recovery [1][6][7][8]. Fiberglass Industry - Demand for fiberglass is projected to grow in the high single digits, with approximately 400,000 tons of new domestic supply expected next year, while about 100,000 tons of overseas capacity will exit annually. High-end products remain scarce, and leading companies like China National Building Material and China Jushi are recommended [3][9]. Cement Industry - The cement industry is controlling supply through production limits and peak-shifting measures. By the end of 2025, a net reduction of over 50 million tons of capacity is anticipated, with a potential overall capacity reduction of over 10% in 2026 if monitoring and enforcement measures are effective. The industry is expected to see a moderate recovery in profit margins [11]. Phosphate and Potash Markets - Phosphate demand is significantly driven by the growth in energy storage, with total demand for power and storage batteries expected to reach 450 to 500 GWh by 2026, translating to a demand for 4.3 to 5 million tons of phosphate rock. The potash market is also expected to see stable growth, with limited new supply and high import dependence from China, leading to favorable price expectations [22][24]. Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is currently at a cyclical low but is expected to enter an upward phase starting late 2025. Industry self-discipline measures are enhancing price elasticity, with recent price increases observed in various chemical products [25][26][27]. Investment Opportunities - Recommended investment opportunities include potassium and phosphorus fertilizers, which are supported by strong fundamentals and global agricultural and renewable energy growth. Related fine chemicals like refined phosphoric acid and yellow phosphorus also show significant investment potential due to their wide applications [28].

Market Overview - In November, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a trend of high-low switching, with the ChiNext Index down 4.23% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 5.23%[5] - The market's focus shifted towards defensive sectors as funds moved from high-valuation growth stocks to low-valuation cyclical stocks and dividend assets[5] Investment Strategy - December's market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with a short-term oscillating structure anticipated[5] - Key events include the Central Economic Work Conference and various industry conferences that may create investment opportunities[5] Key Investment Themes - Focus on "anti-involution" policies which are expected to improve industry performance, particularly in resource sectors benefiting from rising commodity prices[5] - Emphasis on overseas expansion themes, with Chinese high-end manufacturing expected to gain market share globally[5] Recommended Stocks - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) projected EPS growth from 1.21 in 2024 to 2.83 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 23.62 to 10.10[7] - Electric Power Investment (002128.SZ) expected to see EPS rise from 2.38 in 2024 to 2.75 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 10.9 to 9.45[27] Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's revenue is projected to grow from 303.64 billion yuan in 2024 to 381.84 billion yuan in 2027, with a net profit increase from 32.05 billion yuan to 75.22 billion yuan[18] - Electric Power Investment's revenue is expected to increase from 298.59 billion yuan in 2024 to 371.25 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit rising from 5.34 billion yuan to 6.17 billion yuan[27] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected policy changes, underperformance in commercialization, and slower-than-expected product development[5]

Core Viewpoint - The fiberglass sector continues to strengthen, with international composite material "20cm" hitting the daily limit, leading to a surge in stocks of companies such as Honghe Technology, China National Building Material, Changhai Co., Shandong Fiberglass, China Jushi, and Jinan Guojiji [1] Company Summary - International composite material "20cm" has reached its daily limit, indicating strong market performance [1] - Honghe Technology, China National Building Material, Changhai Co., Shandong Fiberglass, China Jushi, and Jinan Guojiji have all experienced stock price increases in response to the market trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huayuan Securities highlights that the two major shareholders of China Jushi are increasing their stakes, demonstrating confidence in the company's medium to long-term development [1] Group 1: Shareholder Actions - The two major shareholders are increasing their holdings based on their strong belief in the company's future prospects and long-term investment value [1] - The shareholders have committed not to reduce their holdings during the implementation of the share increase plan, further showcasing their confidence in the company's medium to long-term development [1] Group 2: Company Overview - China Jushi is backed by China National Building Material Group and is one of the largest and most comprehensive manufacturers in the fiberglass industry globally [1] - As of the end of 2024, the company will have six production bases worldwide, with an annual production capacity of nearly 3 million tons of fiberglass yarn [1] Group 3: Market Opportunities - The company is entering the high-end electronic fabric sector, which is expected to provide significant growth opportunities [1] - This move is anticipated to create a "Davis double" effect, enhancing the company's overall value [1] Group 4: Investment Rating - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the company, reflecting positive sentiment towards its future performance [1]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The report highlights the significant adjustment in the long-term bond market, indicating a supply-demand imbalance due to increased government bond issuance, which rose from 4.77 trillion in 2018 to approximately 13.35 trillion by December 2025 [6][7] - It is suggested that the future demand for ultra-long bonds may weaken, particularly from insurance funds, as the issuance of long-term bonds has surged, leading to increased pressure on banks' investment durations [7][8] - The report recommends addressing the supply-demand imbalance by controlling the issuance of government bonds and encouraging the central bank to purchase ultra-long bonds to alleviate market pressures [8][9] Group 2: China Jushi Co., Ltd. Insights - The report discusses the confidence of major shareholders in China Jushi Co., Ltd., with plans for significant share buybacks totaling between 6.75 billion and 11 billion RMB, reflecting a strong belief in the company's long-term growth potential [12][13] - China Jushi is recognized as a leading global manufacturer in the fiberglass industry, with a production capacity of nearly 3 million tons of fiberglass yarn and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.72% in revenue from 2014 to 2024 [13][14] - The company is entering the high-end electronic fabric market, which is expected to benefit from increased demand driven by advancements in computing power, positioning it for substantial growth in this sector [13][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The two major shareholders are increasing their stakes, demonstrating confidence in the company's medium to long-term development [6] - The company is a global leader in the fiberglass industry, with a significant production capacity and a strong historical growth trajectory [6] - The entry into the high-end electronic fabric sector is expected to provide substantial growth opportunities due to increasing demand [6] - Profit forecasts indicate a recovery in net profit and earnings per share over the next few years, with a projected net profit of 3.32 billion, 3.88 billion, and 4.23 billion RMB for 2025 to 2027 [6] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 15.86 billion RMB in 2024 to 21.65 billion RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.72% from 2014 to 2024 [5][6] - The net profit is expected to recover from 2.45 billion RMB in 2024 to 4.23 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a significant growth rate [5][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.61 RMB in 2024 to 1.06 RMB in 2027 [5][6] - The company maintains a healthy return on equity (ROE), projected to rise from 8.14% in 2024 to 11.30% in 2027 [5][6]