证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 26 日 战略小金属价值重估进行时，推荐关注稀土及 钴等战略金属 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ►印尼 RKAB 审批周期调整为 1 年的新规加剧未来矿 石供应紧张预期，对镍矿价格或有支撑 截止到 10 月 24 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 15085 美元/ 吨，较 10 月 17 日上涨 1.04%，LME 镍总库存为 250854 吨， 较 10 月 17 日增加 0.13%；沪镍报收 12.19 万元/吨，较 10 月 17 日上涨 0.45%，沪镍库存为 36,075 吨，较 10 月 17 日增加 0.02%；截止到 10 月 24 日，硫酸镍报收 28,800 元/吨，较 10 月 17 日上涨 0.17%。根据 SMM，印尼原料方面，火法矿供应 端来看，印度尼西亚苏拉威西和哈马黑拉岛的雨季已基本结 束，整体采矿作业未受阻碍。从大部分矿山角度来看，镍矿石 产量相对增加，因为矿山计划充分利用已获批的生产配额。但 运输环节存在挑战，由于道路运输活动增加， ...

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price increased by 2.41% to $10,624.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper decreased by 1.77% to 84,400 yuan per ton [1][12] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 0.55 thousand tons to 17.75 thousand tons due to weak downstream consumption and replenishment of imported sources [1][12] - The operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises rose to 62.5%, up 19.06% week-on-week, but down 16.39% year-on-year, indicating a recovery post-holiday but still below pre-holiday levels [1][12] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.82% to $2,796.00 per ton, while Shanghai aluminum decreased by 0.33% to 20,900 yuan per ton [2][13] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 2.3 thousand tons, indicating a slight recovery in demand [2][13] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing enterprises remained stable at 62.5%, with a year-on-year decline of 1.4% [2][13] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 7.65% to $4,344.30 per ounce, influenced by U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical risks [3][14] - SPDR gold holdings increased by 17.46 tons to 1,034.62 tons, reflecting increased demand amid market uncertainties [3][14] - The U.S. government shutdown has led to delays in key economic data releases, impacting the economy and the dollar's position [3][14] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 9.01% to 507,100 yuan per ton, with expectations of price recovery due to overseas replenishment [4][32] - The strategic importance of rare earths has increased due to regulatory changes, with a positive outlook for major companies in the sector [4][32] - The implementation of new regulations is expected to gradually show positive effects on supply and pricing [4][32] Group 5: Antimony - Antimony price decreased by 4.08%, but demand is expected to recover due to the stabilization of photovoltaic glass production [4][33] - The implementation of stricter standards for flame-retardant cables may provide a demand boost for antimony [4][33] - Global antimony prices are expected to trend upward due to resource scarcity and reduced supply from major mines [4][33] Group 6: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.63% to 73,100 yuan per ton, while lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.43% to 78,200 yuan per ton [5][60] - Total lithium carbonate production increased to 21,100 tons, reflecting a slight recovery in supply [5][60] - Strong demand from the energy storage sector is expected to support lithium prices despite recent supply increases [5][60] Group 7: Cobalt - Cobalt price increased by 9% to 381,000 yuan per ton, driven by tight supply conditions [5][61] - The market is characterized by a "price without market" phenomenon, with strong upward pressure on prices due to raw material shortages [5][61] - Future price increases are anticipated as supply constraints from Congo continue to affect the market [5][61] Group 8: Nickel - LME nickel price increased by 0.1% to $15,200 per ton, while Shanghai nickel price decreased by 0.6% to 121,200 yuan per ton [5][62] - Concerns over the stability of nickel ore supply due to regulatory changes in Indonesia are providing short-term support for prices [5][62] - The market is expected to remain volatile due to the interplay between supply disruptions and weak fundamentals [5][62]

Market Overview - The small metals sector experienced a decline of 2.0% on October 17, with Dongfang Zirconium leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3839.76, down 1.95%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12688.94, down 3.04% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Guangsheng Nonferrous (600259) closed at 58.80, up 1.03% with a trading volume of 184,800 shares and a transaction value of 1.11 billion [1] - Dongfang Zirconium (002167) closed at 12.96, down 5.68% with a trading volume of 392,100 shares and a transaction value of 524 million [2] - The highest decline was seen in Dongfang Zirconium, which fell by 5.68% [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The small metals sector saw a net outflow of 2.186 billion from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.784 billion [2][3] - The main funds showed a negative net flow in several stocks, including Guangsheng Nonferrous and Huayang New Materials [3] Trading Volume and Transaction Value - The trading volume for Guangsheng Nonferrous was 184,800 shares, while Dongfang Zirconium had a trading volume of 392,100 shares [1][2] - The transaction value for Guangsheng Nonferrous was 1.11 billion, and for Dongfang Zirconium, it was 524 million [1][2]

Company Performance - The stock price of Huaxi Nonferrous Metals reached a historical high, increasing by 6.93% to 35.04 yuan, with a trading volume of 6.3043 million shares and a transaction value of 219 million yuan [2] - The company's total market capitalization in A-shares is 22.165 billion yuan, while the circulating market capitalization is 9.648 billion yuan [2] - For the first half of the year, the company reported a revenue of 2.787 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.66%, and a net profit of 382 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.49% [2] Industry Overview - The overall increase in the nonferrous metals industry is 2.48%, with 110 stocks rising, including five stocks that hit the daily limit [2] - Among the stocks that declined, 29 experienced a drop, with the largest declines seen in Zhongke Magnetic Materials, Longci Technology, and Zhongzhou Special Materials, with declines of 4.06%, 4.01%, and 3.98% respectively [2]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the gold industry, copper industry, aluminum industry, tin industry, and antimony industry [12]. Core Views - The report indicates that the decline in risk assets and the resulting increase in risk aversion will drive up precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver [4][5]. - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates is expected to support the upward trend in gold prices [5]. - Supply disruptions in copper mining are anticipated to strengthen copper prices as the peak demand season approaches [6][8]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience tight supply conditions, although demand recovery post-holiday is still uncertain [9]. - Tin prices are supported by tightening supply due to issues in refining and mining operations [10]. - Antimony prices are expected to remain weak in the short term due to weak demand, but long-term supply constraints may support prices [12]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices increased to $3974.50 per ounce, up by $88.80 from October 3, reflecting a 2.29% rise. Silver prices rose to $50.76 per ounce, up by $3.16, a 6.63% increase [4][32]. - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 70,000 ounces to 32.7 million ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 11.35 million ounces to 497 million ounces [32]. Copper - LME copper closed at $10,765 per ton, up by $200 from October 3, a 1.89% increase. SHFE copper closed at 85,900 yuan per ton, up by 2,550 yuan, a 3.06% increase [6]. - Supply disruptions from major mines are expected to support copper prices, with Freeport-McMoran and Teck Resources reducing their production forecasts significantly [8]. Aluminum - Domestic aluminum prices reached 21,020 yuan per ton, up by 290 yuan. LME aluminum inventory decreased to 508,825 tons [9]. - The report notes that while supply remains rigid, demand recovery is still weak, leading to potential inventory accumulation [9]. Tin - Domestic refined tin prices rose to 288,830 yuan per ton, an increase of 10,370 yuan, or 5.16% [10]. - Supply issues are exacerbated by slow recovery in mining operations, particularly in Myanmar and Indonesia [10]. Antimony - Antimony prices fell to 167,500 yuan per ton, down by 1,000 yuan, reflecting a 0.59% decrease. The report highlights weak demand and ongoing supply issues [11].

Core Insights - Jiangsu Province's Federation of Industry and Commerce released the "2025 Jiangsu Private Enterprises Top 100" series lists, highlighting Suzhou's dominance in the rankings [1][2] Group 1: Rankings Overview - Suzhou has 53 companies listed in the "2025 Jiangsu Private Enterprises Top 200," with 7 companies in the top ten [1] - Hengli Group ranks first with a projected revenue of 871.5 billion yuan for 2024, followed by Shenghong Holding Group, Shagang Group, Hengtong Group, and Yongzhuo Holding [1] - Among the listed companies, 11 have revenues exceeding 100 billion yuan, with Suzhou accounting for 7, representing 63.6% of the total [1] Group 2: Manufacturing and R&D - Suzhou has 28 companies in the "2025 Jiangsu Private Enterprises Top 100 in Manufacturing," with the same top five companies as the overall ranking [1] - The "2025 Jiangsu Private Enterprises Top 100 in R&D Investment" includes 36 Suzhou companies, with Shagang Group, Shenghong Holding Group, Hengtong Group, GCL Group, and Sinopharm Holding in the top ten [1] Group 3: Economic Development - The Suzhou Federation of Industry and Commerce emphasizes the importance of large-scale private enterprise research, aiming to enhance the role of listed companies as benchmarks for high-quality economic development [2] - The number of Suzhou companies on the lists reflects the favorable business environment and strong growth of private enterprises in the region [2]

Core Insights - The event highlighted the release of the 2025 Jiangsu Top 200 Private Enterprises and the Top 100 Manufacturing Enterprises, showcasing the growth and competitiveness of the private sector in Jiangsu [1] Group 1: Rankings and Performance - Among the 2025 Jiangsu Top 200 Private Enterprises, there are 11 companies with annual revenues exceeding 1 billion and 29 companies with revenues over 500 million [1] - The top three companies in the rankings are Hengli Group, Shenghong Group, and Shagang Group [1] Group 2: Economic Development and Trends - The entry threshold for the top enterprises is continuously rising, indicating an optimization of the industrial structure and a sustained increase in innovation momentum [1] - The meeting emphasized the importance of guiding private entrepreneurs to maintain strategic determination and confidence in development, focusing on high-quality growth [1] Group 3: Policy and Environment - There is a call for the continuous improvement of the business environment and the acceleration of the cultivation of new productive forces to promote the growth of the private economy and enterprises [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a consolidation phase, with the non-ferrous metal sector ETF (159876) seeing a price drop of 3.33% while achieving a record trading volume of 1.72 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest despite the downturn [1] Fund Flows and Performance - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) saw a net subscription of 116 million units, with a total inflow of 117 million yuan on the previous day and a cumulative inflow of 210 million yuan over the past 20 days [1][3] - As of October 9, the latest scale of the non-ferrous metal ETF reached 493 million yuan, marking a new historical high [1] Sector Analysis - The "Copper Doctor" remains strong, with Jiangxi Copper rising over 7% and Yunnan Copper increasing by more than 1%. Silver stocks also performed well, with a limit-up increase [1] - Conversely, companies like Hanrui Cobalt and Western Gold fell over 9%, dragging down the index performance [1] Market Drivers - Gold prices have fluctuated due to a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, with Bank of America indicating a potential bull market for gold lasting until 2026, following a nearly 50% increase this year [3] - Copper prices surged due to supply constraints from the Grasberg copper mine incident, igniting investor enthusiasm [3] - The recent export control regulations on rare earths by the Ministry of Commerce are expected to maintain strong pricing in the rare earth sector [3][4] Industry Outlook - The non-ferrous metal industry maintains a high level of prosperity, with precious metals benefiting from Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, leading to gold prices surpassing the 4000 USD mark [4] - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are experiencing price increases due to supply constraints and a weak dollar environment [4] - The rare earth sector is expected to see continued valuation and performance growth due to tightening export controls [4] Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide a diversified exposure to various metals, including copper (27.6%), gold (14.5%), aluminum (13.1%), rare earths (10.4%), and lithium (8.4%), making it suitable for risk diversification in investment portfolios [6]

Market Overview - The small metals sector experienced a decline of 2.66% on October 10, with Huaxi Nonferrous Metals leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3897.03, down 0.94%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13355.42, down 2.7% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Huaxi Nonferrous Metals saw a significant drop of 7.68%, closing at 31.87, with a trading volume of 220,800 shares and a transaction value of 720 million [2] - Other notable declines included Caoyuan Tungsten Industry down 5.74% and Shenghe Resources down 5.00% [2] - In contrast, Aluminum Corporation of China (Aluminum Co.) increased by 0.56%, closing at 25.27 [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The small metals sector experienced a net outflow of 4.323 billion in main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 2.717 billion [2] - The data indicates that retail investors are actively buying into the sector despite the overall decline [2] Detailed Fund Flow - Huaxi Nonferrous Metals had a main fund net inflow of 8.3204 million, but retail investors showed a net outflow of 12.7964 million [3] - Other stocks like Huayang New Materials and Jin Tian Titanium Industry also reported negative net inflows from main funds [3] - Conversely, stocks like Anning Co. and Xianglu Tungsten Industry saw significant retail inflows, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a day of volatility and adjustment, with all three major indices closing down: Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94%, Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.70%, and ChiNext Index decreased by 4.55% [1][2] - The total market turnover was 2.53 trillion yuan, a decrease of 137.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2] Sector Performance - Gas and coal sectors showed gains, while semiconductor, battery, and precious metals sectors faced significant declines, with semiconductor funds seeing an outflow exceeding 20 billion yuan [2][3] - Notable individual stock movements included CATL and Sanhua Intelligent Control, both experiencing fund outflows over 2 billion yuan, while ZTE Corporation saw a rise of over 4% [4] Precious Metals - The price of spot gold fell below the 4000 USD mark, closing at 3965 USD per ounce, leading to a decline in A-share precious metal stocks, with several stocks like Western Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold dropping over 5% [8][10] - Analysts suggest that persistent inflation data in the U.S. could lead to a stronger dollar and higher real interest rates, reducing gold's attractiveness [11] Investment Sentiment - The first three quarters of the year saw significant gains in major indices: Shanghai Composite Index up 15.84%, Shenzhen Component Index up 29.88%, and ChiNext Index and Sci-Tech 50 Index both up 51.20% [14] - The best-performing sectors included non-ferrous metals, hardware equipment, and semiconductors, with emerging concepts like AI and controlled nuclear fusion gaining traction [14] - Market sentiment indicates a cautious outlook for the fourth quarter, with a potential shift in investment focus from technology to traditional sectors like real estate and machinery [15]