Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][14]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 147.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.67% to 11.1 billion yuan [1]. - The increase in costs has pressured product margins, leading to a decline in gross margin in Q3 2024 [1]. - The company is undergoing a transformation in its ethane raw material usage, which is expected to enhance long-term profitability in the petrochemical sector [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 50.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.48%, but a net profit of 2.92 billion yuan, down 29.41% year-on-year [1][3]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 13.40%, down 4.0 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased operating costs [1]. - The company plans to enhance its MDI production capacity, with expectations to increase total capacity to 4.8 million tons per year, which could boost its global market share to over 40% [1]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 15.3 billion, 18.5 billion, and 22.8 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a cautious outlook on industry recovery [1][3]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 88.2 yuan, based on a projected PE ratio of 15 times for 2025 [2][1].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 万华化学（600309.SH） 优于大市 三季度归母净利下滑，新项目稳步推进 2024 年三季度公司营收同比提升，归母净利润同环比下滑。公司 2024 年三 季度营收 505.4 亿元（同比+12%，环比-1%），归母净利润 29.2 亿元（同 比-29%，环比-27%）；销售毛利率/净利率为 13.4%/6.6%，同环比下滑； 期间费用率 5.8%，同环比略有提升。三季度营收同比提升，但归母净利 润、毛利率、净利率同环比下滑，盈利短期承压。2024 年前三季度，公 司多套装置完成技改扩产及新产能投产，主要产品产销量实现同比增 长。然而，部分主营产品价格同比下降，但主要原材料价格持续维持高 位，同时公司烟台、欧洲主要装置集中检修，导致三季度利润同比下降。 聚氨酯板块营收及产销量均同比增长，需求整体疲软。2024 年三季度公司 聚氨酯板块营收 187.9 亿元（同比+8.5%，环比+4.7%），产量/销量为 138/141 万吨（同比+16%/+14%，环比-6%/+2%）。2024 年第三季度，聚 氨酯下游需求整体疲软，纯 MDI、TDI 等产品价格出现下降趋势， ...

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for Q3 2024 was ¥50,536,786,854.36, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.48%[2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was ¥2,918,951,589.81, a decrease of 29.41% compared to the same period last year[2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was ¥2,828,985,853.35, down 31.30% year-on-year[5] - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of CNY 147.604 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.35%[8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 11.093 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.67%[9] - Net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 12.30 billion, down from RMB 13.86 billion in 2023, indicating a decrease of approximately 11.3%[15] - The total comprehensive income for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 12.50 billion, compared to RMB 13.83 billion in 2023, indicating a decline of approximately 9.6%[15] Assets and Liabilities - The total assets at the end of the reporting period reached ¥309,641,134,354.74, an increase of 22.37% compared to the end of the previous year[3] - The company's total current assets as of September 30, 2024, amounted to CNY 91.904 billion, compared to CNY 61.864 billion at the end of 2023, reflecting a significant increase[10] - The company's total assets reached CNY 309.641 billion as of September 30, 2024, up from CNY 253.040 billion at the end of 2023[12] - The company's total liabilities as of September 30, 2024, were CNY 208.040 billion, compared to CNY 158.586 billion at the end of 2023[13] - The company's total liabilities were 112,718,215,888.40 RMB, compared to 82,594,056,664.98 RMB in the previous year[22] - The total liabilities and shareholders' equity reached CNY 176.29 billion, up from CNY 140.93 billion in the previous year[23] Shareholder Information - The company reported a total of 131,694 common shareholders at the end of the reporting period[6] - The top three shareholders held a combined 41.72% of the company's shares, with Yantai Guofeng Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. holding 21.59%[6] Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities for the year-to-date period was ¥19,305,479,618.20, reflecting a 12.65% increase[2] - Cash flow from operating activities totaled RMB 175.63 billion in 2024, up from RMB 141.66 billion in 2023, marking an increase of approximately 24.0%[18] - The company reported a total cash inflow from operating activities of CNY 52.47 billion, compared to CNY 41.84 billion in the same period last year, marking a growth of 25.5%[25] - Total cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period reached 40,890,726,562.42 RMB, up from 40,019,104,080.89 RMB[19] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period amounted to CNY 16.67 billion, an increase from CNY 11.42 billion at the end of the same period in 2023[26] Costs and Expenses - Total operating costs increased to RMB 133.99 billion in 2024 from RMB 117.89 billion in 2023, reflecting a rise of about 13.6%[14] - Research and development expenses rose to RMB 3.22 billion in 2024 from RMB 2.88 billion in 2023, reflecting an increase of about 11.9%[14] - Selling expenses increased to RMB 1.17 billion in 2024, compared to RMB 997.66 million in 2023, a rise of approximately 17.0%[14] - The company's financial expenses rose significantly to CNY 634.17 million, compared to CNY 156.45 million in the previous year, primarily due to increased interest expenses[23] Market Strategy and Operations - The company experienced a decrease in net profit primarily due to a decline in product prices and an increase in raw material costs, leading to reduced gross margins[5] - The company is focusing on global, differentiated, and refined operations while maintaining low costs to adapt to market changes[8] - The company has completed several technical upgrades and expansions, contributing to the growth in production and sales volume of major products[8] - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and investing in new technologies to drive future growth[16] - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and investing in new technologies to drive future growth[27] Inventory and Investments - The company's inventory as of September 30, 2024, was CNY 25.502 billion, an increase from CNY 20.650 billion at the end of 2023[10] - The long-term equity investments rose to 31,623,717,081.95 RMB from 27,205,431,381.34 RMB year-over-year[21] - The company's inventory increased to 6,053,643,590.93 RMB from 5,738,449,359.38 RMB in the previous year[21] - The company achieved an investment income of CNY 5.88 billion, a substantial increase from CNY 892.77 million in the same period last year[23]

证券代码：600309 证券简称：万华化学 公告编号：临 2024-55 号 万华化学集团股份有限公司 2024年三季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏， 并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》之《第 十三号——化工》的相关规定，现将万华化学集团股份有限公司 2024 年前三季度主 要经营数据披露如下： 一、主要产品的产量、销量及收入实现情况 2024 年前三季度公司聚氨酯系列产品实现销售收入 5,424,539 万元，石化系列 产品和 LPG 贸易实现销售收入 6,197,780 万元，精细化学品及新材料系列产品实现 销售收入 1,999,910 万元。 | 主要产品 | 产量（万吨） | 销量（万吨） | | --- | --- | --- | | 聚氨酯系列 | 421 | 410 | | 石化系列 | 407 | 407 | | 精细化学品及新材料系列 | 145 | 142 | 注：以上销量为各系列产品产量对应的销售量，包含产品系列之间的内部使用量。销 ...

当前价格（元） 78.22 日均成交额（百万） 2,382.54 2024 年 10 月 20 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 贾冰 S0350524030003 jiab@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 聚合 MDI 价格上涨，烟台产业园 PDH 装置复产 ——万华化学（600309）9 月月报 最近一年走势 投资要点: 化工行业未来的竞争优势在于"工程师红利"，万华化学是国内少有的 以技术创新驱动公司发展的典型。公司以优良文化为基础，通过技术创 新和卓越运营打造出高技术和低成本两大护城河。万华化学正以周期成 长股的步伐向全球化工巨头之列进军。 短期看，影响万华化学基本面的是产品的景气度，从表征指标来看，价 差是影响短期利润最核心的因素。万华化学的产品体系日益庞大，为更 好地表示公司景气的程度，我们将万华化学的产品体系作为一个整体， 相对沪深 300 表现 2024/10/18 按照现 ...

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏， 并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 股票简称：万华化学 股票代码：600309 公告编号：临 2024-54 号 万华化学集团股份有限公司 烟台产业园 PDH 装置复产公告 万华化学集团股份有限公司 2024 年 10 月 9 日 根据公司于 2024 年 8 月 23 日发布的"万华化学集团股份有限公司烟台产业园 PDH 装置停产检修公告"（公告编号：临 2024-45 号），烟台产业园 75 万吨/年 PDH 等 装置于 2024 年 8 月 25 日开始停产检修。 截至目前，上述装置的停产检修已经结束，恢复正常生产。 特此公告。 ...

Key Points **Industry/Company**: * **Company**: Wanhua Chemical Group (600309.SS) * **Industry**: Chemicals, Polyurethane, Specialty Chemicals, New Materials **Core Views and Arguments**: 1. **Resilience and Competitive Moats**: Wanhua Chemical Group is positioned as a resilient chemical producer with strong competitive moats, well-positioned to navigate volatile macro environments. The company's competitive advantages include: * **Manufacturing/Operational Excellence**: Wanhua is one of the lowest-cost producers in the polyurethane value chain, with reliable output and superior profitability compared to global peers. * **R&D Effectiveness**: Wanhua has a strong track record of successful new product development and commercialization, with a high R&D success rate. * **Supply Chain Integration**: Wanhua has a fully integrated supply chain, providing cost competitiveness and control over key raw materials and intermediates. 2. **Growth Outlook**: Wanhua's growth outlook is driven by: * **TAM Expansion**: The company is expanding its TAM through the development of performance chemicals and new materials segments, which are expected to grow significantly over the next decade. * **Market Share Gains**: Wanhua is expected to gain market share in most of the product segments it operates or plans to operate in, both within China and globally. 3. **Valuation**: Goldman Sachs' valuation analysis suggests a bear case valuation of Rmb70.8/share (-22% downside) and a blue sky scenario valuation of Rmb148.0/share (+62% upside) by 2035E. **Other Important Points**: 1. **Financial Performance**: Wanhua has delivered a solid 20%+ CAGR for both revenue and EBITDA over the past decade, making it one of the most profitable chemical producers in China. 2. **Capital Allocation**: Wanhua has allocated 2/3 of its capex to expand outside the polyurethane supply chain, positioning itself comprehensively across a variety of specialty chemical value chains and products. 3. **Risks**: Key risks include intensifying competition, geopolitical risks leading to potential trade restrictions, and slower-than-expected commercialization of new products. Key Points Breakdown **1. Industry/Company**: * **Company**: Wanhua Chemical Group (600309.SS) * **Industry**: Chemicals, Polyurethane, Specialty Chemicals, New Materials **2. Core Views and Arguments**: * **Resilience and Competitive Moats**: * **Manufacturing/Operational Excellence**: Wanhua is one of the lowest-cost producers in the polyurethane value chain, with reliable output and superior profitability compared to global peers. * **R&D Effectiveness**: Wanhua has a strong track record of successful new product development and commercialization, with a high R&D success rate. * **Supply Chain Integration**: Wanhua has a fully integrated supply chain, providing cost competitiveness and control over key raw materials and intermediates. * **Growth Outlook**: * **TAM Expansion**: The company is expanding its TAM through the development of performance chemicals and new materials segments, which are expected to grow significantly over the next decade. * **Market Share Gains**: Wanhua is expected to gain market share in most of the product segments it operates or plans to operate in, both within China and globally. * **Valuation**: * **Bear Case**: Rmb70.8/share (-22% downside) * **Blue Sky Scenario**: Rmb148.0/share (+62% upside) by 2035E **3. Other Important Points**: * **Financial Performance**: * 20%+ CAGR for both revenue and EBITDA over the past decade * One of the most profitable chemical producers in China * **Capital Allocation**: * 2/3 of capex allocated to expand outside the polyurethane supply chain * Positioning the company comprehensively across a variety of specialty chemical value chains and products * **Risks**: * Intensifying competition * Geopolitical risks leading to potential trade restrictions * Slower-than-expected commercialization of new products

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: 证券代码：600309 证券简称：万华化学 公告编号：临 2024-53 号 万华化学集团股份有限公司 关于持股 5%以上股东部分股份解除质押公告 公司股东 Prime Partner International Limited 持有万华化学股份 172,993,229 股， 占公司总股本比例 5.51%，本次股份解除质押业务办理完成后，Prime Partner International Limited 累计质押 98,405,045 股。 万华化学集团股份有限公司获悉公司持股 5%以上股东 Prime Partner International Limited 所持有本公司的部分股份办理解除质押手续，具体情况如 下表： | 股东名称 | Prime Partner International Limited | | --- | --- | | 本次解除质押股份数量 | 4,000,000 | | 占其所持股份比例 | 2.31% | | 占公司总股本比例 | ...

1.本次股份质押基本情况 2.本次质押股份不存在被用作重大资产重组业绩补偿等事项的担保或其他 证券代码：600309 证券简称：万华化学 公告编号：临 2024-52 号 万华化学集团股份有限公司 关于持股 5%以上股东部分股份质押展期公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: 公司股东烟台中诚投资股份有限公司持有万华化学股份 330,379,594 股，占公司总股本 比例 10.52%，本次股份质押展期业务办理完成后，烟台中诚投资股份有限公司累计质 押股份 35,890,000 股，占其持股数量比例 10.86%。 公司于 2024 年 9 月 25 日获悉烟台中诚投资股份有限公司（以下简称"中诚 投资"）所持有本公司的部分股份质押展期，具体情况如下。 | | | | 是否为限 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股东 | 是否为 | 本次质押股 | ...

证券代码：600309 证券简称：万华化学 公告编号：临 2024-51 号 公司根据自身资金计划安排和银行间市场情况，于 2024 年 9 月 18 日在全国银 行间市场发行了 2024 年度第三期中期票据，募集资金已于 2024 年 9 月 20 日到账。 发行结果如下： | 名称 | 万华化学集团股份有限公司2024年 | 简称 | 24万华化学 MTN003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 度第三期中期票据 | | | | 代码 | 102484154 | 期限 | 5年 | | 起息日 | 2024年09月20日 | 兑付日 | 2029年09月20日 | | 计划发行总额 | 10亿元 | 实际发行总额 | 10亿元 | 万华化学集团股份有限公司 2024 年度第三期中期票据发行结果公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并 对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 万华化学集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2023 年 3 月 18 日召开的 第八届董事会 2023 年第一次会议审议通过了《关于申请非 ...