Core Viewpoint - Tianrun Dairy's performance is expected to experience a rebound after a temporary decline due to the culling of cattle, leading to a "buy" rating from the research report by Xinda Securities [1][5]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 625 million yuan, a decrease of 2.50% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 73.3 million yuan, down 1713.36% year-on-year; and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was a loss of 103,000 yuan, down 104.54% year-on-year [2][3]. Industry Context - The dairy industry is facing weak consumption, with Q1 showing an oversupply on the supply side and weak demand. The national cattle inventory decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, and dairy product output fell by 2.4% year-on-year [3]. Product and Regional Performance - Revenue from various products in Q1 included 347 million yuan from ambient dairy products (down 4.38% year-on-year), 239 million yuan from chilled dairy products (down 0.64% year-on-year), and 17.32 million yuan from livestock products (down 44.27% year-on-year). Revenue from Xinjiang and outside Xinjiang was 355 million yuan and 251 million yuan, respectively, down 4.40% and 5.87% year-on-year [3]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for Q1 was 14.63%, a decrease of 1.80 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to short-term promotions. The overall expense ratio remained stable, with sales expenses up 1.15 percentage points and management expenses up 0.07 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Strategic Response - In response to the oversupply and intensified market competition, the company is exploring new sales channels and optimizing cattle structure to improve productivity. The total cattle inventory at the end of Q1 was 56,300 heads, a reduction of over 8,500 heads from the end of 2024, with a per-cow output of 11.25 tons, an increase of 0.94 tons year-on-year [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company expects a significant reduction in cattle culling, leading to improved performance. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.24 yuan, 0.53 yuan, and 0.77 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 40X, 18X, and 13X [5].

2025年4月29日，天润乳业(600419.SH)发布2025年一季报。 公司营业总收入为6.25亿元，在已披露的同业公司中排名第12，较去年同报告期营业总收入减少1603.94万元，同比较去年同期下降2.50%。归母净利润 为-7330.36万元，在已披露的同业公司中排名第27，较去年同报告期归母净利润减少7784.71万元，同比较去年同期下降1713.36%。经营活动现金净流入为 4753.40万元，在已披露的同业公司中排名第10，较去年同报告期经营活动现金净流入增加5379.85万元。 公司最新资产负债率为55.83%，在已披露的同业公司中排名第19，较上季度资产负债率减少1.44个百分点，较去年同期资产负债率增加2.10个百分点。 公司最新毛利率为14.63%，在已披露的同业公司中排名第24，较上季度毛利率减少2.13个百分点，较去年同期毛利率减少1.81个百分点。最新ROE 为-3.13%，在已披露的同业公司中排名第27，较去年同期ROE减少3.32个百分点。 公司摊薄每股收益为-0.23元，在已披露的同业公司中排名第27，较去年同报告期摊薄每股收益减少0.25元，同比较去年同期下降1713.89 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Tianrun Dairy, despite facing a net profit loss in Q1 2025, is strategically optimizing its operations and maintaining market resilience through various initiatives [1][2][3] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 625 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, and a net profit loss of 73.3 million yuan [1] - The company has improved its average annual milk yield per cow by 0.94 tons to 11.25 tons, with a total cattle inventory of 56,300 heads [1] - The dairy product sales reached 74,500 tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 12.37%, indicating strong market resilience [2] Group 3 - The company has enhanced its cash flow from operating activities, achieving a net cash flow of 47.5 million yuan, significantly improved due to accelerated receivables and increased government subsidies [3] - The company's non-recurring net profit loss was only 1.03 million yuan, indicating strong operational resilience [3] - Analysts suggest that with the industry cycle showing signs of bottoming out and the company's channel expansion efforts, the operational situation is expected to improve gradually starting from Q2 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Tianrun Dairy (600419) [2][8] Core Views - The demand remains weak, impacting profitability due to impairment losses. In Q1 2025, total revenue was CNY 625 million, down 2.5% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -CNY 73 million compared to CNY 5 million in the same period last year [2][8] - The company is actively adjusting to pressures, with expectations for gradual improvement in operations throughout the year. The report anticipates that the reduction in cattle and the introduction of new products will help stabilize revenue and improve profitability [2][8] Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue is projected to grow from CNY 2,804 million in 2024 to CNY 3,327 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.3%, 5.2%, 6.4%, and 6.0% respectively [4] - Net profit is expected to recover from CNY 44 million in 2024 to CNY 204 million in 2027, with significant growth rates of -69.3%, 94.2%, 100.6%, and 20.0% [4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is forecasted to increase from CNY 0.14 in 2024 to CNY 0.64 in 2027, reflecting the company's recovery strategy [4] - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 72 in 2024 to 15 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings recover [4] Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, the sales revenue from various product lines showed a decline, with revenue from ambient products at CNY 347 million, down 4.37%, and low-temperature products at CNY 239 million, down 0.64% [8] - The company experienced a 12.37% increase in dairy product sales volume year-on-year, attributed to promotional activities in the Xinjiang region [8] Strategic Adjustments - The company is focusing on reducing cattle numbers and introducing new products to adapt to market pressures. New product launches include passion fruit milk beer and baked milk skin, aimed at diversifying revenue streams [8] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the raw milk price cycle and the potential impact of consumer stimulus policies on future performance [8]

随着2024年半年报对牛只损失的计提的完成，2024年三季度公司净利润环比扭亏，实现归属于上市公司 股东的净利润5017.71万元。 分析人士对此表示，结合行业大背景而言，奶牛养殖仍处于低谷周期，同时乳制品消费复苏乏力，在供 需失衡的市场环境下，原料奶阶段性过剩，牛只和原料乳销售价格持续走低，乳制品行业市场竞争愈发 激烈，牧业资产较重的上市公司普遍面临亏损。在这样的情况下，天润乳业在去年上半年加大牛只处置 力度，去年三四季度持续改善，成效较为显著。到今年一季度，由于奶牛养殖行业周期仍未见好转，乳 制品消费需求复苏疲软，天润乳业提前加大了低生产价值牛只处置力度，能够尽可能降低畜牧业下行带 给公司业绩的负面影响，虽然一季度形成亏损，但后续季度预计经营情况将转为持续向好趋势。(秦声) 据了解，回溯2024年半年报，天润乳业披露，公司处置牛只损失，造成非流动性资产处置损益-8144.38 万元。该报告期，公司实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润-2790.78万元。 4月28日，天润乳业（600419）披露2025年一季报，报告期公司实现营业收入6.25亿元；由于报告期公 司处置牛只损失，产生非流动性资产处置损益约-1.1 ...

Core Insights - The social security fund has invested in 478 stocks by the end of Q1, with 46 stocks held for over 20 consecutive quarters [1] - The fund's long-term holdings include 257 stocks held for more than four quarters, with 169 stocks held for over two years [1] - Notable long-term holdings include China Overseas Land & Investment, Zhongnan Media, and others, with the longest-held stock being China Overseas Land & Investment since Q2 2011 [1] Holdings Overview - The top holdings by quantity include Changshu Bank (254 million shares), Hualu Hengsheng (122 million shares), and China Jushi (84.52 million shares) [2] - The highest holding percentages are Changshu Bank (8.42%), Hualu Hengsheng (5.77%), and Keri International (5.70%) [2] - Among the 46 stocks, 12 saw an increase in holdings, with significant increases for Huayu Automotive (62.65%), Hualu Hengsheng (19.18%), and Yanjinpuzi (17.90%) [2] Performance Analysis - Of the 46 stocks, 28 reported year-on-year profit growth, with notable increases from Xiantan Co. (583.83%), Zhongyuan Media (234.61%), and China Jushi (108.52%) [3] - Conversely, 17 stocks experienced profit declines, with the largest decreases from Tianrun Dairy (-1713.36%), China Overseas Land & Investment (-303.09%), and Zhongqi Co. (-245.04%) [3] - Stocks with consistent profit growth over the past three years include Aide Biology, Yutong Bus, and Blue Sky Technology [3] Industry Distribution - The 46 stocks are concentrated in industries such as basic chemicals (6 stocks), automotive (5 stocks), and pharmaceutical biology (5 stocks) [2] - The main board contains 30 stocks, while the ChiNext board has 15 stocks, and the Sci-Tech Innovation board has 1 stock [2]

Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 625 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.50%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -73 million yuan, a significant decline of 1713.36% year-on-year [1] - Despite a slight revenue decline, the company achieved a double-digit growth in dairy product sales, with a total volume of 74,500 tons, representing a 12% increase year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on eliminating low-yield cows, which has temporarily pressured profits but is expected to improve gradually as operational efficiency increases [3] Revenue Breakdown - Dairy product revenue was segmented into three categories: ambient dairy products (347 million yuan, -4.37% YoY), chilled dairy products (239 million yuan, -0.64% YoY), and livestock products (17 million yuan, -44.28% YoY), indicating resilience in chilled products despite overall industry weakness [2] - Revenue from distribution and direct sales channels was 545 million yuan and 60 million yuan, respectively, reflecting declines of 3.18% and 18.94% year-on-year [2] - Revenue from domestic and foreign markets was 355 million yuan and 251 million yuan, with year-on-year decreases of 4.40% and 5.87%, accounting for 59% and 41% of total revenue [2] Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin and net profit margin for Q1 2025 were 14.63% and -11.74%, down 1.81 and 12.45 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [3] - The company increased its focus on cost management, with sales, management, financial, and R&D expense ratios at 6.87%, 4.21%, 1.19%, and 0.82%, showing slight increases in sales and management expenses [3] - The reduction in the number of cows from 64,800 at the end of 2024 to 56,300 at the end of Q1 2025 resulted in a non-current asset disposal loss of 117 million yuan, significantly impacting profitability [3] Sales and Marketing Strategy - The company adopted flexible sales strategies in response to market changes, focusing on promotional activities in both domestic and foreign markets to stabilize product sales [4] - Efforts to expand distribution channels included deepening penetration in southern Xinjiang and entering key scenic areas and chain restaurants, as well as exploring direct sales models in major cities [4] - The company launched five new products in Q1 2025, including a new milk powder line, and successfully established product displays in 100 stores [4] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 71 million yuan, 201 million yuan, and 247 million yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 62.63%, 182.52%, and 23.13% respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 47X, 17X, and 14X for 2025-2027 [4]

新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 证券代码：600419 证券简称：天润乳业 公告编号：临 2025-017 债券代码：110097 债券简称：天润转债 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 关于获得政府补助的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 获得补助金额：1,729.31 万元 对当期损益的影响：均为与收益相关的政府补助，将计入损益或冲减相 关成本费用，并对公司 2025 年度损益产生积极影响，具体的会计处理以及对公 司损益的影响最终以审计机构年度审计确认后的结果为准。 一、获得补助的基本情况 2025 年 4 月 27 日至 4 月 28 日，新疆天润乳业股份有限公司（以下简称"公 司"）之控股子公司收到政府补助共计 1,729.31 万元，均为与收益相关的政府补 助，占公司 2024 年度经审计归属于上市公司股东的净利润的 39.61%。具体情况 如下： | 序 | 获得时间 | | 发放单位 | 发放事由 | | 补助依据 | | 补助 | 补助金额 | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 | 证券代码：600419 | 证券简称：天润乳业 | 公告编号：临 | 2025-016 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：110097 | 债券简称：天润转债 | | | 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 关于 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》及 其附件《第十四号——食品制造》的相关规定，现将新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据（未经审计）公告如下： 一、2025 年第一季度主要经营数据 1、主营业务按照产品类别分类情况 二、2025 年第一季度经销商变动情况 2、主营业务按照销售渠道分类情况 单位：元 币种：人民币 | 销售渠道 | 2025 年 1-3 月 | | --- | --- | | 经销 | 545,486,834.99 | | 直销 | 60,277,680.86 | | 合计 | 605,764,515 ...

新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 2024 年年度股东大会会议资料 新疆·乌鲁木齐 二〇二五年五月十五日 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 目 录 | 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 | 2024 | 年年度股东大会议程 | | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 | 2024 | 年度董事会工作报告 | | 3 | | 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 | 2024 | 年度监事会工作报告 | | 18 | | 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 | 2024 | 年度财务决算报告 | | 25 | | 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 | 2025 | 年度财务预算报告 | | 29 | | 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 | 2024 | 年年度报告及摘要 | | 31 | | 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 | 2024 | 年度利润分配方案 | | 32 | | 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司关于 | | 2025 年度申请银行综合授信额度的议案 | | ... 36 | | 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司关于 | | 2025 年度担保额度预计的议案 | | 37 | | 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司关于计 ...