Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the metals and new materials industry, particularly highlighting the strong trend in nickel prices due to tightened supply expectations from Indonesia [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the overall performance of the metals sector has been strong, with the non-ferrous metals index outperforming the broader market indices [4]. - Key price movements show significant increases in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by geopolitical factors and changes in monetary policy [3][20]. - The demand for lithium and cobalt remains robust, with prices for lithium compounds experiencing substantial increases [3][16]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 1.14%. The non-ferrous metals index increased by 3.03%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 3.60 percentage points [4]. - Precious metals saw a weekly increase of 6.86%, while aluminum decreased by 0.57%. Energy metals rose by 1.47%, and small metals increased by 4.31% [8]. Price Changes - Industrial metals prices showed varied changes: copper decreased by 1.50%, aluminum by 0.06%, while zinc increased by 1.76% and tin by 5.32% [12]. - Lithium prices surged, with lithium hydroxide and carbonate increasing by 12.14% and 12.32%, respectively [16]. Key Company Valuations - Companies such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold are highlighted for their strong earnings growth and favorable price-to-earnings ratios [17]. - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation recovery in state-owned enterprises within the steel sector, such as Baosteel and Shagang [19]. Metal Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper supply is under pressure, with domestic social inventory increasing to 321,000 tons, while demand from the wire and cable sector shows a slight recovery [33]. - The aluminum sector is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, with production capacity constraints expected to support long-term price increases [48]. Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report suggests that after interest rate cuts, the valuation center is likely to shift upward, recommending investments in stable supply-demand sectors within the new energy manufacturing industry [3].

香港联交所最新资料显示，1月15日，Schroders PLC减持山东黄金（600547）(01787)328.475万股，每股 作价42.0027港元，总金额约为1.38亿港元。减持后最新持股数目为4950.54万股，最新持股比例为 4.97%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，1月15日，Schroders PLC减持山东黄金(01787)328.475万 股，每股作价42.0027港元，总金额约为1.38亿港元。减持后最新持股数目为4950.54万股，最新持股比 例为4.97%。 ...

Group 1 - The precious metals sector increased by 4.18% on January 19, with Sichuan Gold leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.0, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14294.05, up 0.09% [1] - Key stocks in the precious metals sector showed significant price increases, with Sichuan Gold and Zhaojin Gold both rising by 9.99% [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds in the precious metals sector was 1.549 billion yuan, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 1.489 billion yuan [1] - Major stocks like Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold saw net inflows of 342 million yuan and 301 million yuan respectively, indicating strong institutional interest [2] - Retail investors showed negative sentiment towards several stocks, with significant outflows from Sichuan Gold and other companies [2]

该行对中国黄金行业给予"增持"评级，预期所有中国黄金生产商今年都可录得快速增长，首选股为山东 黄金及招金矿业，给予"买入"评级，目标价分别为52.06港元及44.78港元。该行并给予紫金国际"持 有"评级，预计今年3月份基石投资者禁售期结束后其股价可能会受压，目标价152港元；对紫金矿业则 给予"买入"评级，目标价上调至46.43港元，相信其作为多金属生产商可受惠。 中银国际发表研究报告指，近期全球地缘政治紧张局势加剧，市场预期美国将进一步减息，令黄金作为 避险资产的吸引力增加，目前预计2026年平均金价将按年升40%至4800美元，明年或可进一步升至每盎 司5200美元，长期金价预测为每盎司5500美元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that negative feedback is intensifying, leading to potential price fluctuations. As industrial product prices rise, domestic downstream negative feedback is increasing, resulting in accelerated inventory accumulation. Recent margin increases by CME and SHFE for certain products may lead to significant short-term price volatility in industrial metals. However, the overall bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the expectation of supportive policies [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Liquidity expectations are reverting, which does not hinder the long-term bullish logic. Recent statements from Trump favoring Hassett for the National Economic Council position have increased market expectations for the new Fed chair. The probability of a Fed rate cut in April has dropped to 30%. This has led to potential price fluctuations in precious metals due to a weakened narrative around short-term rate cuts [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.03% in the week ending January 16, ranking third among all industries [18] 3. Precious Metals - Short-term narratives around rate cuts are faltering, leading to potential price volatility in precious metals. As of January 16, SHFE gold rose by 2.57% to 1,032.32 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 2.62% to 4,590.00 USD per ounce. The report notes that the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves to 7,415 million ounces, marking a continuous increase for 14 months [14][29] 4. Copper - The report highlights that negative feedback is intensifying, leading to increased price volatility for copper. As of January 16, SHFE copper fell by 0.63% to 100,770 CNY per ton, while LME copper decreased by 1.50% to 12,803 USD per ton. The report also notes a significant increase in global visible copper inventory [17][28] 5. Aluminum - The aluminum processing sector shows resilience, with profitability per ton of aluminum expected to remain high. As of January 16, SHFE aluminum fell by 1.66% to 23,925 CNY per ton. The report indicates that the average profit for the aluminum industry is around 7,868 CNY per ton [16][89]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that negative feedback is intensifying, leading to potential price fluctuations. As industrial product prices rise, domestic downstream negative feedback is increasing, resulting in accelerated inventory accumulation. Recent margin increases by CME and SHFE for certain products may lead to significant short-term price volatility in industrial metals. However, the overall bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the support of domestic and international policies [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Liquidity expectations are rebounding, which does not hinder the long-term bullish logic. Recent statements from Trump favoring Hassett for the National Economic Council chair have increased market expectations for the next Federal Reserve chair. The probability of a rate cut in April has dropped to 30%. This may lead to price fluctuations in precious metals due to the weakened short-term rate cut narrative. In the industrial sector, as prices rise, negative feedback from domestic downstream is intensifying, and inventory is accumulating rapidly [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.03% in the week ending January 16, ranking third among all industries [18] 3. Precious Metals - Short-term rate cut narratives are challenged, leading to potential price fluctuations in precious metals. For the week ending January 16, SHFE gold rose by 2.57% to 1,032.32 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 2.62% to 4,590.00 USD per ounce. SHFE silver surged by 20.03% to 22,483.00 CNY per kilogram, and COMEX silver rose by 12.30% to 89.19 USD per ounce [14][15][29] 4. Copper - Negative feedback is intensifying, leading to increased price volatility for copper. For the week ending January 16, SHFE copper fell by 0.63% to 100,770 CNY per ton, while LME copper decreased by 1.50% to 12,803 USD per ton. The supply side remains tight, and the transmission to the smelting end is approaching [17][28] 5. Aluminum - The processing operation remains resilient, and the profit per ton of aluminum is expected to stay high. For the week ending January 16, SHFE aluminum fell by 1.66% to 23,925 CNY per ton, while LME aluminum decreased by 0.06% to 3,134 USD per ton. The processing operation rate slightly increased to 60.2%, with overall inventory accumulating [16][89]

早盘，贵金属板块表现活跃。四川黄金早盘一度逼近涨停，截至发稿涨7.8%，山金国际涨超4%，招金黄金、中金黄金、西部黄金、恒邦股份涨超3%。 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 湖南白银 | 赤峰黄金 | 山东黄金 | 晓程科技 | 西部黄金 | 中金黄金 | 恒邦股份 | 招金黄金 | 山金国际 | 四川黄金 | 名称 | | +0.54% | +1.86% | +1.92% | +2.19% | +3.10% | +3.16% | +3.20% | +3.58% | +4.17% | +7.80% | 涨幅量 | 消息面上，早盘现货黄金站上4690美元/盎司关口，刷新历史高点，日内涨超2%。现货白银站上94美元/盎司关口，创历史新高，日内涨超4%。周末，特朗 普就丹麦自治领地格陵兰岛问题发出的关税威胁。消息称欧盟多国正考虑对价值930亿欧元的输欧美国商品加征关税。 | 4660.620 | | 昨结 | 4595.5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of each link in the non - ferrous metal industry chain are jointly repaired, and the core indicators of the issuing entities in the non - ferrous metal industry have improved [1][4]. - It is recommended to focus on allocating AA+/AAA - rated central enterprises and regional leading state - owned enterprises, and select entities with relatively superior core financial indicators, and appropriately extend the duration for higher coupon yields [3][56]. - The credit spread of non - ferrous metal industrial bonds has been narrowing, and coupon income may need to be explored in the medium - and long - term of high - quality central and state - owned enterprises [51][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1产业链各环节基本面协同修复 - **Overall Industry Operation**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the industrial added value of the non - ferrous metal mining and dressing industry above the national scale was 7.6%, and that of the smelting and rolling processing industry was 7.1%. The output of ten common non - ferrous metals reached 7,447.4 million tons, and the overall operating income scale exceeded 9 trillion yuan, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.3% [5]. - **Upstream Resource Mining**: Central and local state - owned enterprises dominate. China has advantages in rare metals like rare earths but has a high external dependence on strategic minerals. In 2025, the price of non - ferrous metals showed an upward trend, driving the improvement of the operating conditions of upstream mining enterprises [1][8][9]. - **Mid - stream Smelting and Processing**: In January - November 2025, the output of refined copper and electrolytic aluminum increased by 7.0% and 2.4% respectively. The output of deep - processed products was much higher than that of smelting products. There was a structural differentiation in the prosperity, with new - energy metal smelting being a highlight [2][16][22]. - **Downstream Application**: Basic metals are mainly used in traditional industries, while lithium, cobalt, and nickel are used in emerging fields. In 2024, the demand for lithium increased by nearly 30%, and the demand for nickel and cobalt increased by 6% - 8%, with the new - energy industry being the core driving force [23]. 3.2有色金属行业发行主体核心指标改善 - **Profitability**: From Q1 to Q3 in 2025, 36 issuing entities achieved a total operating income of 41,067 billion yuan and a net profit of 2,058 billion yuan, with year - on - year increases of 8.5% and 30.6% respectively. The average ROE was 6.91%, and the average net sales profit margin was 6.04%, both showing significant improvements [4][25]. - **Operating Ability**: The average inventory turnover was 6.27 times, and the average current asset turnover was 2.45 times, with year - on - year increases of 0.28 and 0.17 times respectively, indicating improved payment collection and capital return efficiency [4][27]. - **Solvency**: As of Q3 2025, the average asset - liability ratio was 58.0%, the current ratio was 1.18 times, and the quick ratio was 0.61 times. The EBITDA interest coverage ratio increased significantly, indicating enhanced debt repayment ability [4][33]. 3.3有色金属产业债结构分布及机会挖掘 - **Bond Structure**: As of January 7, 2026, there were 290 non - ferrous metal industrial bonds with a total balance of 290.1 billion yuan. Most of the bonds were issued by state - owned enterprises and had high ratings, and the remaining maturity was mostly less than 3 years [43]. - **Credit Spread**: Since 2025, the credit spread of non - ferrous metal industrial bonds has been narrowing, mainly due to the low - interest - rate environment, sufficient capital, and the improvement of industry fundamentals [51]. - **Coupon Income**: The average static coupon of AA+ and above bonds with a remaining maturity of less than 3 years is less than 2%. Coupon income may need to be explored in the medium - and long - term of high - quality central and state - owned enterprises, such as the 3 - 5Y AA+ bonds with a static coupon of 2.13% as of January 7, 2026 [52]. - **Recommended Bonds**: The report recommends some 3 - 5Y non - ferrous metal industrial bonds issued by central and state - owned enterprises for investors' reference [58][59].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including 山金国际, 赤峰黄金, 洛阳钼业, 中国宏桥, and 中钨高新 [10]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a general upward trend, with significant price increases across various metals, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply chain dynamics [11][19]. - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs and trade policies on the supply and demand dynamics of key metals, particularly copper and aluminum [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production capacities, as these factors are critical in determining future price movements [26][35]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Concerns over tariffs have led to a temporary pullback in silver prices, but the long-term outlook remains positive [1]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as 兴业银锡 and 盛达资源 for potential investment opportunities [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper inventories are rising, particularly in the U.S., raising concerns about supply tightness in non-U.S. regions [2]. - The report notes that while high copper prices are suppressing end-user demand, the long-term consumption outlook remains strong due to infrastructure investments [2]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is expected to experience price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies [3]. - The report indicates that production cuts in aluminum processing are occurring, particularly in regions like Guizhou and Henan [3]. Nickel - Nickel prices are on an upward trend, supported by supply tightening expectations from Indonesia [4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring companies like 华友钴业 and 力勤资源 for investment opportunities [4]. Tin - Supply chain bottlenecks and macroeconomic factors are providing short-term support for tin prices [5]. - The report suggests that companies like 华锡有色 and 兴业银锡 may benefit from these market conditions [5]. Lithium - Lithium prices are experiencing wide fluctuations due to export policy expectations and demand uncertainties [6]. - The report recommends关注 companies such as 赣锋锂业 and 天齐锂业 for potential investment [6]. Cobalt - Progress in cobalt shipments from the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to support high cobalt prices in the short term [9]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like 华友钴业 and 腾远钴业 for investment opportunities [9].