Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant rise in the gold industry, with the China Securities Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index increasing by 5.80% and individual stocks like Laopu Gold and Hunan Gold seeing gains of 12.44% and 10.01% respectively [1] - The gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange surpassed $5000 per ounce, marking a historic milestone [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that central banks will purchase 60 tons of gold monthly this year, and with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the scale of gold purchases by ETFs is expected to increase, leading to a revised year-end gold price forecast of $5400 per ounce [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index account for 63.58% of the index, with major companies including Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [2] - The individual performance of key stocks includes Zijin Mining at 4.77% increase and Shandong Gold at 5.76% increase, with their respective weights in the index being 11.20% and 9.05% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious metals prices, particularly silver and gold, is driven by geopolitical factors and increasing industrial demand, leading to significant market movements and investment opportunities in related stocks [6][14]. Precious Metals Price Movement - On January 26, silver opened with a significant increase, surpassing $108, with a daily rise of over 4% [9][10]. - Gold prices also saw a notable rise, initially breaking the $5000 mark and continuing to increase, reaching over $5070 [3][11]. Stock Market Reaction - The rise in precious metal prices led to a collective increase in A-share gold stocks, with Hunan Gold hitting the daily limit, and other companies like Xiaocheng Technology, Sichuan Gold, and Hengbang Shares also experiencing gains [4][12]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Silver's price increase is attributed to its dual role as both a financial and industrial metal, with growing demand in sectors like photovoltaics and new energy contributing to a five-year supply shortage [5][12]. - Factors such as tightening export controls and historically low inventory levels have exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance, resulting in silver's price elasticity being significantly higher than that of gold [5][12]. Analyst Insights - Analysts from Haitong Futures and Jinrui Futures attribute the recent price increases in gold and silver to geopolitical tensions and market reactions to U.S. fiscal policies, which have affected investor confidence in U.S. assets [6][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by geopolitical factors and increasing industrial demand, with gold prices surpassing $5000 and silver experiencing a notable price increase due to supply shortages and industrial needs [1][6][7]. Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold prices opened above $5000 for the first time and continued to rise, breaking through the $5070 mark [1]. - Affected by the surge in precious metals, A-share gold stocks opened collectively higher, with Hunan Gold hitting the daily limit, and other companies like Xiaocheng Technology and Sichuan Gold also seeing significant gains [3]. - Hunan Gold's current price is reported at 25.27, reflecting a 10.01% increase, while other gold stocks like Hengbang Shares and Xiaocheng Technology also showed notable price increases of 9.88% and 9.12% respectively [4]. Group 2: Silver Market - Unlike gold, silver's price increase is attributed to both financial and industrial demand, with the global silver market facing a supply shortage for five consecutive years due to rising industrial needs in sectors like photovoltaics and new energy [6]. - Analysts suggest that the recent rise in gold and silver prices is primarily influenced by geopolitical factors, with market confidence in U.S. assets being affected by political instability, leading to increased investment in gold as a hedge [7].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market saw a collective rise in non-ferrous metal stocks, with gold and silver stocks leading the gains [1] - China Silver Group surged over 10%, leading the sector, while Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining rose over 7% [1] - Other notable performers included Zefeng Gold rising 6.6%, Zijin Mining increasing by 5.3%, and Shandong Gold up by 4.8% [1] Group 2 - China Gold International, Zijin Gold International, and Lingbao Gold all saw increases of over 4% [1] - Zhaojin Mining rose by 3.3%, contributing to the overall positive trend in the sector [1] - Several companies, including Chifeng Jilong, Zijin Mining, China Gold International, Shandong Gold, Zijin Gold International, and Lingbao Gold, reached historical high prices [1]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 周四，美国至 1 月 17 日当周初请失业金人数 20 万人，预 期 21 万人，前值由 19.8 万人修正为 19.9 万人。美国第三季度 实际 GDP 年化季率终值 4.4%，预期 4.30%，前值 4.30%。美 国第三季度实际个人消费支出季率终值 3.5%，前值 3.5%。美 国第三季度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率终值 2.9%，预期 2.9% ，前值 2.90% 。美国 11 月核心 PCE 物价指数月率 0.2%，预期 0.20%。美国 11 月个人支出月率 0.5%，预期 0.50%。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：地缘扰动叠加央行购金，贵金属价格持续 突破历史新高 本周 COMEX 黄金上涨 8.30%至 4,983.10 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 14.80%至 103.26 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金上 涨 8.07% 至 1,115.64 元 / 克 ，SHFE 白银上涨 11.04% 至 24,965.00 元/千克。 本周金银比下跌 5.66%至 48.26。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓增加 27,574.43 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - Spot silver increased over 7%, reaching approximately 103 USD/ounce [1] - Spot gold rose by 1%, peaking at about 4988 USD/ounce [1] - London copper surged by 3.4%, hitting 13187.50 USD/ton, close to its historical high earlier this month [1] - London tin rose by 9.5% and London nickel increased by 4.2% [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Southwest Securities' metal research team suggests focusing on four main lines: 1. Expansion of the denominator: Long-term bullish outlook on gold, with attention to Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and marginal changes in trade wars. The high gold-silver ratio indicates significant upward momentum for silver, making silver targets a priority [1] 2. Improvement of the numerator: A decline in alumina prices by 2025 will significantly enhance the unit profitability of electrolytic aluminum, with aluminum profits expected to remain high, though short-term demand weakness may lead to price declines for both copper and aluminum [1] 3. Key advantageous minerals such as rare earths, antimony, and tungsten are expected to perform better [1] 4. Supply-side disruptions due to anti-involution trends may present opportunities in the lithium carbonate sector [1] Group 3: Company Developments - Shandong Gold is actively increasing its resource reserves through multiple equity and exploration rights acquisitions since 2023 [2] - Xinyi Silver Tin's subsidiary, Yinman Mining, is one of the largest silver production mines in China, while its tin concentrate output ranks second nationally. Yubang Mining has the largest single silver mine reserves in Asia [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations have upgraded, leading to intensified trading. Recent optimistic interest rate cut expectations have resurfaced, driving both precious and industrial metals to break through previous levels. In the past week, the negative feedback for copper and aluminum has significantly weakened, and improvements in the real economy may be observed under high price conditions. Overall, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the support of domestic and international policies [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The report indicates an upgrade in liquidity expectations and a continuation of intense trading. The probability of BlackRock executive Riedel being elected as the Federal Reserve Chairman has surged to 54%. The optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts have reignited, pushing precious and industrial metals to new highs. Although copper and aluminum inventories continue to accumulate, the pace of accumulation has slowed, and the negative feedback from downstream processing has significantly diminished, with operating rates beginning to recover [9][13]. 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 6.03%, ranking fourth among all industries [28]. The report lists several investment targets, including Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988, Buy) and Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) [4]. 3. Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing intense liquidity trading, awaiting the confirmation of the Federal Reserve Chairman nomination. As of January 23, SHFE gold rose by 8.07% to 1,115.64 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 7.54% to 4,036.00 USD per ounce. The report notes that the market expects limited upward pressure on precious metals in the short term due to anticipated interest rate stabilization [14][30]. 4. Copper - The report highlights renewed support for copper prices due to supply disruptions. As of January 23, SHFE copper rose by 0.57% to 101,340 CNY per ton, and LME copper increased by 2.44% to 13,115 USD per ton. Supply tightness continues, with recent strikes in Chile affecting copper concentrate availability [17][70]. 5. Aluminum - The report indicates a reduction in negative feedback for aluminum, with demand showing marginal recovery. As of January 23, SHFE aluminum rose by 1.53% to 24,290 CNY per ton, and LME aluminum increased by 1.12% to 3,169 USD per ton. The processing operating rate has risen by 0.7 percentage points to 60.9% [16][83].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for key sectors within this industry [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in the metals sector, with the non-ferrous metals index outperforming the broader market indices, indicating robust investor interest and potential for growth [4][5]. - Geopolitical tensions are driving safe-haven demand for precious metals, leading to significant price increases, particularly in gold and silver [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-demand dynamics in driving prices for various metals, with specific recommendations for companies positioned to benefit from these trends [4][10]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.11%. The non-ferrous metals index surged by 6.03%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 6.65 percentage points [5][10]. - Precious metals saw substantial weekly gains, with gold prices increasing by 8.30% and silver by 14.80% [4][10]. - Year-to-date performance shows precious metals up by 35.81%, aluminum by 13.01%, and energy metals by 14.34% [10]. Price Changes - Industrial metals prices showed varied changes, with copper increasing by 2.44% and aluminum by 1.12%. Notably, tin prices surged by 18.41% [4][16]. - Lithium prices also saw significant increases, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 8.28% [4][20]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Copper supply is tightening, with domestic social inventory at 330,000 tons, reflecting a slight increase. The report anticipates strong copper prices due to ongoing demand from infrastructure investments [4][36]. - Aluminum production is stable, with a reported operating rate of 98.3% for electrolytic aluminum, indicating healthy demand from downstream processing industries [4][52]. Key Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Zijin Mining, Yunnan Aluminum, and Shandong Gold, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the favorable market conditions [4][21]. - For lithium, companies such as Ganfeng Lithium and Yongxing Materials are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the growing demand in energy storage [4][21]. Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report indicates that post-interest rate cuts, valuation levels are expected to rise, recommending investments in stable supply-demand sectors within the new energy manufacturing industry [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations have upgraded, leading to intensified trading. Recent optimistic interest rate cut expectations have resurfaced, driving both precious and industrial metals to break through previous levels. The negative feedback for copper and aluminum has notably weakened, and improvements in the real economy may be observed under high price conditions. Overall, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the support of domestic and international policies [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The cycle assessment indicates an upgrade in liquidity expectations and a continuation of intense trading. The probability of BlackRock executive Riedel being elected as the Federal Reserve Chairman has surged to 54%. The optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts have reignited, pushing precious and industrial metals to new highs. Although copper and aluminum inventories continue to accumulate, the pace of accumulation has slowed, and the negative feedback from downstream processing has significantly diminished, with operating rates beginning to recover [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 6.03%, ranking fourth among all industries [28]. The precious metals sector experienced the highest gains [21]. 3. Precious Metals - For precious metals, trading has become intensely liquid, awaiting the confirmation of the Federal Reserve Chairman nomination. As of January 23, SHFE gold rose by 8.07% to 1,115.64 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 7.54% to 4,036.00 USD per ounce. The inventory levels for SHFE gold were 102 tons, an increase of 1.96 tons from the previous week [14][30]. 4. Copper - The copper market is experiencing renewed support due to supply disruptions. As of January 23, SHFE copper rose by 0.57% to 101,340 CNY per ton, and LME copper increased by 2.44% to 13,115 USD per ton. The operating rate for refined copper rods was 67.98%, up by 10.51 percentage points [17][29]. 5. Aluminum - The aluminum market shows signs of demand recovery as negative feedback weakens. As of January 23, SHFE aluminum rose by 1.53% to 24,290 CNY per ton, and LME aluminum increased by 1.12% to 3,169 USD per ton. The processing operating rate rose by 0.7 percentage points to 60.9% [16][85].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, among others [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in commodity prices, particularly in precious metals like gold and silver, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns [8][67]. - Industrial metals are expected to see price stability due to improved domestic demand and production adjustments, despite some fluctuations in inventory levels [21][24]. - The energy metals sector, particularly cobalt and nickel, is facing supply constraints, which may lead to price increases in the near future [83]. Industry and Company Performance - The SW Nonferrous Index rose by 6.03% during the week of January 19-23, with precious metals like gold and silver increasing by 8.30% and 14.80%, respectively [8]. - Key companies such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are projected to have strong earnings growth, with EPS estimates for 2024 at 1.21 and 0.63 yuan, respectively [2]. - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Shengtu Mining, China Nonferrous Mining, and Western Mining, based on their strong market positions and growth potential [8]. Base Metals - Aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels, with LME aluminum prices recorded at $3,174 per ton, reflecting a 1.44% increase [13][24]. - Copper prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors, with current prices at $13,128.5 per ton, showing a 2.50% increase [13][38]. - Zinc prices have shown volatility, with LME zinc prices at $3,246.5 per ton, reflecting a 1.17% increase, driven by supply disruptions [43][44]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have surged due to heightened geopolitical risks, with gold trading at approximately 4,983.10 USD per ounce, an increase of 8.30% [15][67]. - The report emphasizes the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices, supported by central bank purchases and weakening dollar credit [67]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to ongoing supply shortages, with current prices around 432,500 yuan per ton [83]. - Nickel prices are projected to remain high due to production cuts in Indonesia, with current prices at 148,010 yuan per ton [55].