政策面"利空"与行业面疲软 基金和"聪明钱"已在二季度"出逃" 南都湾财社记者注意到，7月末高位"跳水"的白酒指数在进入8月后，随着大盘回暖重新打开上涨通道，8月1日至18日，指数累计涨幅为4.02%。不过，从年 初至今，白酒指数却已累计下跌11.27%，多只个股仍在回调当中。 行业面上，今年白酒行业持续深度调整，尤其今年5月推出的"禁酒令"，使得酒水公务接待和部分商务接待场景"消失"，同时让资金对白酒股产生"恐慌"情 绪，这使得最近一段时间板块成分股出现下跌。在此期间，贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒和泸州老窖，都曾分别触及1400元/股、117元/股、168.3元/股和 106.75元/股的年内低位，古井贡酒曾触及130.8元/股的近五年最低位，洋河股份则曾触及下63.17元/股的历史新低。 虽然基金第三季度对白酒股的持仓尚未披露，但是从第二季度的表现来看，对白酒减持是主要表现。 在A股持续走高的行情下，昔日"引领大盘"的白酒表现得较为冷清。 8月18日，A股盘中创下了10年来新高，沪指最高一度触及3745.94点，下午收盘录得3728点涨0.85%，与此同时，创业板涨2.84%并录得2606.2点，年内涨幅 ...

金融界8月18日消息，上证指数高开高走，AMAC饮料制造指数(AMAC饮料，H30043)上涨0.48%，报 10897.97点，成交额218.97亿元。 从AMAC饮料制造指数持仓样本的行业来看，主要消费占比100.00%。 数据统计显示，AMAC饮料制造指数近一个月上涨1.80%，近三个月下跌7.37%，年至今下跌4.39%。 从AMAC饮料制造指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比72.34%、深圳证券交易所占比 27.66%。 据了解，中基协基金估值行业分类指数依据《中国上市公司协会上市公司行业统计分类指引》中的门类 划分，编制16个门类指数（不包括制造业）；依据制造业门类下的大类划分，编制27个大类指数，共有 43条行业分类指数。该指数以2009年01月01日为基日，以1000.0点为基点。 从指数持仓来看，AMAC饮料制造指数十大权重分别为：贵州茅台（52.64%）、五粮液（14.09%）、 山西汾酒（5.43%）、泸州老窖（5.39%）、东鹏饮料（3.48%）、洋河股份（2.47%）、今世缘 （1.77%）、古井贡酒（1.42%）、青岛啤酒（1.41%）、燕京啤酒（1.01%）。 ...

Summary of Shanxi Fenjiu Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shanxi Fenjiu - **Industry**: Baijiu (Chinese liquor) Key Points and Arguments Industry and Market Dynamics - The baijiu industry is currently experiencing a downturn, with the second quarter expected to be the worst period for the industry fundamentals [7] - Despite the downturn, Shanxi Fenjiu is positioned as a preferred investment target due to its strong brand momentum and significant valuation space [7][8] - The overall sales of baijiu are anticipated to improve as consumption restrictions ease and consumer sentiment improves, particularly during peak seasons like Mid-Autumn Festival and Spring Festival [7] Company Strategies and Adaptations - Shanxi Fenjiu has adopted various strategies to maintain competitiveness, including learning from industry models and optimizing its own practices, such as the "five-in-one" strategy and terminal construction [2][4] - The company has shifted from a production-focused model to a marketing-oriented approach since 2008, learning from peers like Wuliangye [6] - The introduction of mixed ownership reforms and employee stock ownership plans has facilitated market-oriented transformation, allowing the company to perform well during industry cycles [12][13] Historical Transformations - Key historical turning points include the adoption of the OEM model in 2008 and significant institutional reforms in 2017 that decentralized power and clarified reward and punishment mechanisms [2][6][10] - The company has undergone a significant transformation from a production-centric entity to one with a strong marketing focus, enhancing its product structure and channel management [6][21] Product and Regional Strategies - The company has three main capacity construction projects aimed at increasing raw liquor capacity to over 81,000 tons and finished product capacity to over 100,000 tons, enhancing overall production capabilities by over 50% [4][32] - Shanxi Fenjiu's national strategy involves consolidating its market in Shanxi province before expanding to surrounding regions and eventually to emerging markets in southern China [17][33] - The product strategy has evolved to include a range of offerings from low-end to high-end products, with a focus on upgrading product structure in core markets [18][31] Marketing and Promotion - The marketing efforts focus on the Qinghua series, Guotang series, and Laobai Fen series, with a shift from a large warehouse development model to a more flattened approach [9] - The company has implemented a "grab both ends and lead the middle" strategy in different regions to cater to varying consumer needs [27] Financial Outlook and Growth Potential - Despite current challenges, the company is expected to achieve a revenue target of 50 billion yuan by 2028, driven by product structure adjustments and market expansion [44][50] - The company maintains a positive outlook on future growth, anticipating recovery in the baijiu industry and potential for significant revenue increases as market conditions stabilize [49][54] Challenges and Responses - The baijiu industry faces challenges such as a slowdown in high-end product growth and price pressures from competitors [48] - Shanxi Fenjiu is addressing market fluctuations through measures like price stabilization and digital management to maintain profitability [53] Conclusion - Shanxi Fenjiu is well-positioned to navigate the current market challenges and capitalize on future growth opportunities, making it a compelling investment choice in the baijiu sector [55]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The liquor sector is currently in a bottom consolidation phase due to policy and demand recovery pressures, but there are opportunities for bottom-fishing as performance concerns have eased [1][3] - The beverage sector is experiencing good sales momentum, driven by health and functional demand, indicating a potential continuation of industry prosperity [1][3] - The report recommends focusing on ETFs such as the CSI Consumer ETF and the Hang Seng Consumer ETF, which are seen as scarce new consumption targets in the A-share market [1][3] Industry ETF Market Review - During the week of August 11-15, 2025, major food and beverage ETFs saw an overall increase, with the liquor ETF (512690.SH) and consumer ETF (159928.SZ) rising by +1.40% and +0.98% respectively [2][10] - The liquor ETF had a trading volume of 5.736 billion, marking it as the highest in the observed ETFs [2][11] - The total inflow for food and beverage-related ETFs was 1.101 billion, with the liquor ETF experiencing a net inflow of 658 million [11] Industry Sector Performance Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.70% while the food and beverage sector only increased by 0.48%, underperforming both the Shanghai Composite and the CSI 300 Index [19] - The liquor sub-sector showed a slight increase of +0.93%, while soft drinks experienced the largest decline at -3.12% [21] - Year-to-date, the food and beverage sector has decreased by 6.11%, significantly underperforming the broader market indices [19][23] Industry News - Market demand remains weak, with prices continuing to decline, reaching new lows for the year [3][26] - Moutai's half-year revenue for 2025 was reported at 91.094 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, aligning with expectations [3][26] - New packaging specifications for Moutai have been introduced to meet market demand, including adjustments to box sizes and materials [3][60]

| 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600519 贵州茅台 | | 2.42 Z | 3.57% | -2.41 Z | -3.56% | -53.47万 | -0.01% | | 600809 山西汾酒 | | 1.24亿 | 7.22% | -1741.13万 | -1.01% | -1.07 Z | -6.21% | | 000858 | 五粮液 | 8517.99万 | 2.69% | -6047.86万 | -1.91% | -2470.13万 | -0.78% | | 000799 | 酒鬼酒 | 3893.41万 | 4.67% | -3630.88万 | -4.36% | -262.53万 | -0.31% | | 603369 今世缘 | | 2770.37万 | 4.66% | -400.15万 | -0.67% | -2370.22万 | -3.99% | | 000596 古井贡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock market showed positive momentum with all three major indices rising over 1%, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market, particularly in the liquor sector [1]. Industry Summary - The liquor sector index closed at 2267.89 points, up 1.21%, with 19 liquor stocks experiencing gains [1]. - Major liquor companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao saw their stock prices increase, with Kweichow Moutai closing at 1430.19 CNY per share, up 0.57%, and Wuliangye at 124.15 CNY per share, up 0.85% [1]. - Tianfeng Securities highlighted that leading liquor enterprises are focusing on channel health and long-term development, suggesting a rational approach to performance growth targets [1]. - The report anticipates that the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio in the liquor sector may recover before earnings per share (EPS), with a potential turning point for EPS expected in the second quarter of 2026 due to a low base effect [1].

Core Viewpoint - The stock market showed positive momentum with all three major indices rising over 1%, indicating a favorable trading environment for investors, particularly in the liquor sector [1] Industry Summary - The liquor sector index closed at 2267.89 points, up 1.21%, with 19 liquor stocks experiencing gains [1] - Major liquor companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe Brewery all reported stock price increases, reflecting strong market performance [1] Company Summary - Kweichow Moutai's stock closed at 1430.19 yuan per share, up 0.57% [1] - Wuliangye's stock closed at 124.15 yuan per share, up 0.85% [1] - Shanxi Fenjiu's stock closed at 190.52 yuan per share, up 1.03% [1] - Luzhou Laojiao's stock closed at 125.36 yuan per share, up 0.53% [1] - Yanghe Brewery's stock closed at 70.08 yuan per share, up 0.27% [1] Analyst Insights - Tianfeng Securities highlighted that leading liquor companies are focusing on channel health and long-term development, suggesting a rational approach to performance growth targets [1] - The report indicates that the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the liquor sector may recover before earnings per share (EPS), with a potential EPS turning point expected in the second quarter of 2026 due to a low base effect [1] - Current investment opportunities in the liquor sector are emphasized, suggesting a positive outlook for future performance [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage sector [1][4]. Core Views - External positive factors are gradually increasing, and Kweichow Moutai's interim report demonstrates operational resilience. The report indicates that the liquor sector has shown a slight increase of 0.9% this week, with expectations for continued valuation recovery due to policy anticipation [2][11]. - The report highlights three investment themes: companies with strong anti-cyclical performance like Shanxi Fenjiu and Kweichow Moutai, companies with strong cyclical attributes like Luzhou Laojiao, and companies with low inventory burdens like Yingjia Gongjiu [2][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector rose by 0.49% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.21 percentage points. The top five gainers in the sector included Guifaxiang (28.74%), Angel Yeast (7.52%), Tianwei Food (6.90%), Gujing Gongjiu (6.58%), and ST Tongpu (6.54%) [1][20]. 2. Liquor Sector - Kweichow Moutai's interim report showed a total revenue of 91.09 billion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 45.4 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year. The report notes a slight decline in profit margins due to fluctuations in gross and expense ratios, but the company has shown resilience amid industry adjustments [2][11]. - The report suggests that liquor companies will focus on destocking and promoting sales in the short term while emphasizing consumer engagement and internationalization in the medium to long term [2][13]. 3. Consumer Goods - The beer sector is entering a peak season, with a slight decrease in fund holdings in the second quarter of 2025. Yanjing Beer has seen an increase in fund holdings, while other major brands like Qingdao Beer and China Resources Beer have seen declines [3][14]. - The snack sector has seen an increase in fund holdings, particularly in Yanjinpuzi and Wancheng Group, indicating a shift towards a more category-driven growth model [3][15]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in various segments, including Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Nongfu Spring, and Dongpeng Beverage [3][19].

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving landscape of the liquor industry, highlighting the cross-industry expansion of traditional liquor brands into the craft beer market, the growth of the bottled liquor segment, and the emergence of new retail channels for liquor sales [2][3][5][8]. Industry Environment - Major liquor brands from Sichuan are entering the craft beer market, leveraging their existing brand and distribution advantages. This move is seen as a strategy to attract younger consumers and expand consumption scenarios [3][4]. - The bottled liquor market has surpassed 150 billion yuan, with expectations to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2025. Competition is intensifying as brands launch new products priced under 60 yuan [5]. - Black Ge Consulting identified nine key insights into the liquor industry, including the rise of local brands and the trend towards lower alcohol content products, emphasizing the need for brands to adapt to changing consumer preferences [5]. - High-end liquor brands are encouraged to adopt strategies from luxury brands like Hermes and Ferrari, focusing on scarcity and emotional resonance rather than just price competition [6][7]. New Retail Channels - New retail formats such as Sam's Club and Hema are reshaping liquor sales, offering competitive pricing and direct sourcing, which is attracting consumers and providing new growth channels for liquor companies [8]. - The recent adjustments to the "ban on alcohol" policy have led to a gradual recovery in dining consumption, particularly in regions like Henan, although high-end dining remains sluggish [9]. - Despite a seasonal slowdown, liquor companies are actively transforming their strategies to focus on consumer engagement and experience, moving from a channel-driven approach to a user-driven model [10]. Craft Beer Market - The craft beer segment is rapidly growing, with over 13,584 related enterprises in China as of July 2023, indicating a vibrant competitive landscape [11]. - Traditional liquor brands are launching lower-alcohol products to appeal to younger consumers, although challenges remain in maintaining flavor and quality [12]. Digital Transformation - The liquor industry is leveraging digital assets for growth, with companies reporting significant increases in sales and inventory turnover through innovative digital strategies [13]. Brand Dynamics - The Guojian brand is focusing on national expansion, emphasizing quality and cultural elements to enhance its market presence [14]. - The Swan Lake winery has successfully marketed its zodiac wines, achieving significant sales figures despite industry challenges [15]. - Changyu's innovative marketing strategies in sports events have successfully engaged consumers and enhanced brand visibility [16]. - The Fenjiu brand is exploring new consumer experiences through immersive cultural events, aiming to connect with younger audiences [17]. Market Challenges - Budweiser APAC reported a 24.4% drop in net profit, primarily due to a sluggish Chinese market and increased competition in both the low and high-end segments [20]. - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant transformation, with companies needing to adapt to changing consumer demands and market dynamics to remain competitive [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on traditional consumer head enterprises, indicating they have long-term investment value from a dividend and yield perspective [3][7]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the liquor sector is under pressure due to slow macro demand recovery and limited consumption scenarios, with expectations of continued challenges in sales and financial statements this year [3][7]. - It emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with long-term competitiveness and improvement potential, particularly in the food and beverage sector [3][7]. - The report recommends key companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao in the liquor segment, while also focusing on companies in the dairy and beer sectors like Yili Group and Beijing Yanjing Brewery [3][7][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.48% increase last week, with liquor up by 0.93%, but underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.70% [6]. - The top gainers included Guifazhiyuan and Angel Yeast, while the biggest losers were Huangshanghuang and Yanjing Beer [6]. 2. Liquor Sector Analysis - Kweichow Moutai's bottle price is 1850 yuan, down 25 yuan week-on-week, while the box price is 1860 yuan, down 50 yuan [8]. - The report suggests a cautious approach, advising to wait for changes in the industry's fundamentals, particularly looking forward to the peak season in August and September [8]. 3. Consumer Goods Sector Analysis - The report is optimistic about the dairy sector due to declining costs and improving supply-demand dynamics, recommending companies like Yili and New Dairy [9]. - It notes that snacks, beverages, and low-alcohol products have structural growth opportunities, highlighting companies such as Uni-President China and Wei Long [9]. 4. Key Company Updates - Kweichow Moutai reported a revenue of 388 billion yuan for Q2 2025, with a net profit margin of 48.45%, down 1.04 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - Wei Long's H1 2025 revenue reached 3.483 billion yuan, up 18.52%, with a net profit of 733 million yuan, also up 18% [9]. - Shuanghui Development's H1 2025 revenue was 28.514 billion yuan, a 2.97% increase, with a net profit of 2.323 billion yuan, up 1.17% [10][17].