Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company has achieved significant growth in oil and gas production, with total production reaching 180 million barrels of oil equivalent in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.88% [2][14]. - The company has increased its capital expenditure to 28.72 billion RMB in Q1 2024, up 16.81% year-on-year, supporting its oil and gas production efforts [2][14]. - The average realized price for oil liquids increased by 6.20% year-on-year to 78.75 USD per barrel, despite a slight decline in Brent crude oil prices [3][9]. - The company has successfully managed its oil production costs, which decreased by 2.23% year-on-year to 27.59 USD per barrel [3][13]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 1114.68 billion RMB, a 14.10% increase year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397.19 billion RMB, up 23.70% year-on-year [8][24]. Production and Capital Expenditure - The company is responding to calls for increased reserves and production, maintaining high levels of capital expenditure, which is expected to support ongoing production growth [2][14]. - New projects, including the Suizhong 26-1 and Luda 5-2 oil fields, are progressing ahead of schedule, with peak production expected in 2025 [2][14]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised by 15%, 14%, and 14% respectively, with projected net profits of 155 billion RMB, 160 billion RMB, and 165 billion RMB for those years [2][24]. - The corresponding earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are expected to be 3.26 RMB, 3.36 RMB, and 3.47 RMB, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.85X, 8.58X, and 8.31X [2][24].

中国海油（600938.SH） 买入 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------|----------|------------|------------|----------------------------------|------------| | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 422,230 | 416,609 | 454,615 | 482,283 | 497,484 | | (+/-%) | 71.6% | -1.3% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 3.2% | | 净利润(百万元) | 141700 | 123843 | 149798 | 156357 | 163329 | | (+/-%) | 101.5% | -12.6% | 21.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | | 每股收益（元） | 1.88 | 2.60 | 3.15 | 3.29 | 3.43 | | EBIT ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告(AH)·油气开采Ⅱ 中国海油（ 600938.SH ） / 中国海洋石油 （00883.HK） 2024 年一季报点评：经营情况大超预期！ 2024 年 04 月 26 日 买入(维持)-A /买入(维持)-H | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 422,230 | 416,609 | 458,447 | 491,953 | 513,749 | | 同比（ % ） | 71.56 | (1.33) | 10.04 | 7.31 | 4.43 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 141,700 | 123,843 | 150,015 | 163,547 | 172,914 | | 同比（ % ） | 101.51 | (12.6 ...

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 证券代码：600938 证券简称：中国海油 公告编号：2024-009 重要内容提示 公司首席执行官及总裁周心怀先生、首席财务官及会计机构负责人王欣女士声明：保证季度报告中财 务信息的真实、准确、完整。 1.1 按照中国企业会计准则编制的主要财务数据 （一）主要会计数据和财务指标 单位：百万元 币种：人民币 1 / 10 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------|-----------|-----------|-------| | | | | | | 总资产 | 1,055,179 | 1,005,598 | 4.9 | | 归属于母公司股东的所有 | | | | | 者权益 | 706,483 | 666,586 | 6.0 | 对公司将《公开发行证券的公司信息披露解释性公告第 1 号——非经常性损益》未列举的项目认定为的 非经常性损益项目且金额重大的，以及将《公开发行证券的公司信息披露解释性公告第 1 号——非经常 ...

4月19日，油气开采板块领涨全市场，石化ETF（159731）持续拉升，截至10:09，涨幅1.93%，在全市 场ETF中涨幅靠前。持仓股兴发集团、鲁西化工涨超6%，盐湖股份、藏格矿业、亚钾国际涨超4%，“三 桶油”集体拉升。 浙商证券表示，油气开采，全球石化行业资本开支不足，叠加OPEC+依然存在减产意愿，预计未来原 油供给端增长有限，即便需求下调，原油生产国仍有能力将原油维持在供需紧平衡的状态，受益于油价 维持在较高水平区间内，预计上游原油龙头具备稳定的盈利能力，建议关注低估值高分红油气龙头。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）：跟踪中证石化产业指数（H11057.CSI），由中 证800指数样本股中的石化产业股票组成，以反映该产业公司股票的整体表现。从申万一级行业分布来 看，指数以基础化工和石油石化行业为主，权重占比合计93%，前十大重仓股中涵盖了“三桶油”——中 国石油、中国石化、中国海油，权重占比合计超25%。 ...

Company Overview - The report focuses on **China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)** (600938 SH), a Hong Kong-based investment holding company established on August 20, 1999, primarily engaged in oil and gas exploration, production, and trade [5] - CNOOC operates in markets including China, Canada, the UK, Nigeria, Indonesia, and Brazil, with its business segments covering conventional oil and gas, shale oil and gas, oil sands, and other unconventional oil and gas activities [5] Financial Performance - In 2023, CNOOC achieved **RMB 4160 09 billion** in revenue, a **1 33% YoY decline**, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of **RMB 1238 43 billion**, down **12 60% YoY** [5] - Despite a **19 29% YoY decline** in Brent crude oil prices to **USD 82 56 per barrel**, CNOOC's cost control was strong, with its main oil cost per barrel decreasing by **5 13%** to **USD 28 83** [5] - The company's oil and gas production reached a **5-year high** at **678 0 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE)**, exceeding its initial target of **650-660 million BOE** and marking an **8 65% YoY increase** [5] Future Outlook - CNOOC plans to increase its oil and gas production to **700-720**, **780-800**, and **810-830 million BOE** in 2024-2026, with YoY growth rates of **4 72%**, **11 27%**, and **3 80%**, respectively [5] - The company's capital expenditure in 2023 rose **27 46% YoY** to **RMB 1279 13 billion**, with a projected range of **RMB 1250-1350 billion** for 2024 to support further production growth [5] - CNOOC expects to launch several new projects in 2024, including the **Bozhong 19-2 oilfield development project**, **Deep Sea No 1 Phase II project**, and **Brazil's Mero3 project**, enhancing its growth potential [5] Dividend Policy - In 2023, CNOOC distributed **RMB 53 934 billion** in cash dividends, with a dividend payout ratio of **44%** [5] - The company's A-share dividend yield was **5 44%**, while its H-share dividend yield reached **9 62%** [5] - Since its listing in April 2022, CNOOC has paid cash dividends **3 times**, totaling **RMB 80 745 billion**, with a cumulative dividend payout ratio of **32 78%** and a total return ratio (including share repurchases) of **80 44%** [5] Valuation and Investment Rating - The report forecasts CNOOC's revenue for 2024-2026 to be **RMB 4349 88 billion**, **RMB 4612 20 billion**, and **RMB 4876 00 billion**, respectively, with net profits of **RMB 1312 10 billion**, **RMB 1478 85 billion**, and **RMB 1554 54 billion** [12] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at **RMB 2 76**, **RMB 3 11**, and **RMB 3 27**, with corresponding PE ratios of **10 85x**, **9 62x**, and **9 16x** [12] - The report upgrades CNOOC's rating to **"Strongly Recommend"** based on its strong cost control, stable earnings, and growth potential [20] Industry Context - The oil and gas industry is influenced by global economic trends, with **Brent crude oil prices** averaging **USD 82 56 per barrel** in 2023, down **19 29% YoY** [5] - CNOOC's performance in 2023 was resilient, with its profit decline being less severe than the drop in oil prices, highlighting its operational efficiency and cost management [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][10]. Core Insights - The exploration potential for offshore oil and gas, particularly in deep water, is significant due to low discovery rates compared to onshore resources. As of 2017, the proven reserves for onshore oil and gas were 36.72% and 47.01%, respectively, while offshore oil and gas were only 23.70% and 30.55% [1][3]. - The company has made several significant discoveries in offshore oil and gas resources recently, including the Bozhong 26-6 oil field with over 40 million cubic meters of geological reserves and the largest deep-water oil field discovered in the South China Sea [11][24]. Summary by Sections Exploration Potential - Offshore oil and gas exploration is still in its early stages, with substantial potential for discovery. The proven rates decrease significantly with water depth, with shallow water (less than 400 meters) having a discovery rate of 28.05%, deep water (400-2000 meters) at 13.84%, and ultra-deep water (greater than 2000 meters) at 7.69% for oil [3][12]. - Investment in offshore oil and gas exploration has been increasing, with expenditures surpassing $100 billion in 2022, indicating a high level of industry activity and potential for future discoveries [5][12]. Company Performance - The company has a robust resource base, with confirmed net reserves of approximately 6.78 billion barrels of oil equivalent as of the end of 2023, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year growth. Domestic net reserves account for 4.05 billion barrels, up 12.6% year-on-year [34]. - The company achieved a net production of 6.78 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2023, marking an 8.7% increase compared to the previous year [34]. Regional Insights - The Bohai Sea is the company's primary oil production area, with confirmed reserves of 196.84 million barrels and a production rate of 599,847 barrels per day in 2023, representing a 7.55% increase year-on-year [47]. - The South China Sea's western oil fields have a reserve of 861.9 million barrels, while the eastern oil fields have reserves of 892.6 million barrels, with production rates increasing by 5.14% and 5.50%, respectively [55][56].

证 券 研 究 报 告 股 票 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Range] 52 周内价格范围 16.47-30.58 市值（百万元） 1,334,248 22% 28% 35% 42% 49% 55% 237512 257598 277685 297772 317859 337945 22A 23A 24E 25E 26E 净资产(现金)/净负债 净负债(现金)(百万) 净负债/净资产(%) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|--------------------------------------|--------|-------------|-----------|------------|------------|----------|-------------------| | 表 1 \n日期 \n代码 | 可比公司估值对比 \n3/27/2024 \n简称 | 收盘价 | 单位 | 市值 | 单位 | 每股净资产 | 单位 | 市净率（ ...

丨证券研究报告丨 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 %% %% | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 报告要点 | | | [Table_Summary] 公司披露 2023 年年度报告，报告期内公司营业总收入 4,166.09 亿元，同比下降 1.33% ，归母 | | | 净利润 1,238.43 亿元，同比下降 12.6% 。 2023 年总计派息 1.25 港元 / 股，分红比例约 44% 。 油气净产量再创新高，且考虑税金上升等因素，业绩降幅仍低于同期油价跌幅；降本增效持续 | | | 推进，桶油主要成本优势凸显；展望未来，油价中枢有望中高位运行， ...

公司研究 [Table_Title] 持续夯实增储上产，高盈利+高分红价值凸显 ——中国海油（600938）点评报告 事件: 2023Q4 单季度，公司实现营业收入 1097.92 亿元，同比-1.2%，环比 -4.3%；实现归母净利润为 262 亿元，同比-20.4%，环比-22.7%；扣非 后归母净利润 294.8 亿元；经营活动现金流净额为 507 亿元。销售毛利 率为 50.7%，同比+1.6pct，环比+3.9pct；销售净利率为 24.1%，同比降 低 5.6pct，环比降低 2.5pct。 克服油价震荡业绩维持稳健，桶油主要成本同比下降 5.1% 桶油作业成本方面，2023 年公司桶油主要成本为 28.83 美元/桶油当量， 同比-5.1%，其中作业费用同比下降 2.6%，主要是汇率变动和产量增长 的综合影响，折旧、折耗和摊销同比下降 4.1%，主要是产量结构变化及 相关报告 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 汇率变动的综合影响；除所得税以外的其他税项同比下降 10.7%，主要 是油价下降的影响。公司坚持实施提质降本增效，桶油作业费用处于国 际同业前列，进一步夯实成本竞争优势。 20 ...