Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal market is expected to stabilize due to improvements in supply-demand fundamentals, leading to a focus on coal allocation [6] - The report highlights a decrease in domestic coal production and imports, which is anticipated to support coal prices [3][4] - The upcoming summer peak demand is expected to drive electricity demand, while the demand from chemical, construction, and steel sectors remains resilient [4] Supply Side Summary - Domestic coal production decreased significantly in April 2025, with a total output of 39 million tons, down 11.6% from March [3][8] - Notable declines were observed in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, with production dropping by 23.8% and 20.6% respectively [10] - Import coal volumes continued to decline due to price discrepancies, with April imports down 16.4% year-on-year [3][12] Demand Side Summary - Anticipated high temperatures during the summer are expected to increase electricity demand, alleviating the negative growth trend in thermal power generation [4] - Non-electric demand remains strong, with high operating rates in coal chemical industries and resilient cement demand despite seasonal fluctuations [4][30] Inventory Summary - Port inventories in the Bohai Rim have been decreasing since mid-May, with coal stocks dropping to 31.4 million tons by May 27, 2025 [5][33] - The number of anchored vessels at ports has increased, indicating a recovery in market demand [5][33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on coal sector investments due to favorable supply-demand dynamics, with specific recommendations for various coal companies [6][34] - Notable companies include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal for stable investments, while companies like Yancoal and Jinneng Holding are highlighted for their potential upside [6][34]

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index showed a mixed performance with the banking sector seeing gains while the semiconductor and automotive sectors experienced declines [1] Banking Sector - Major banks such as China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, and China Life Insurance reported market capitalizations of 363.08 billion, 323.34 billion, and 971.52 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 246 million, 819 million, and 326 million [3] Semiconductor Sector - North China Innovation and Cambricon Technologies had market capitalizations of 229.69 billion and 262.17 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.706 billion and 674 million, showing declines of 1.58 (-0.37%) and 22.99 (-3.53%) [3] Automotive Sector - Great Wall Motors and BYD reported market capitalizations of 193.36 billion and 289.24 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 6.002 billion and 1.8 billion, both showing declines of 11.95 (-3.14%) and 0.20 (-0.88%) [3] Oil and Gas Sector - China Shipping and Sinopec had market capitalizations of 688.88 billion and 252.95 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.145 billion and 187 million, showing no significant change [3] Coal Sector - China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry reported market capitalizations of 200.01 billion and 787.59 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 417 million and 260 million, with slight changes in stock prices [3] Power Sector - Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power had market capitalizations of 199.30 billion and 743.83 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.022 billion and 601 million, showing minor fluctuations [4] Food and Beverage Sector - China Citic Securities and Haitai Flavoring reported market capitalizations of 377.18 billion and 246.00 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 198 million and 610 million, both showing slight declines [4] Consumer Electronics Sector - Industrial Fulian and Luxshare Precision reported market capitalizations of 367.39 billion and 221.56 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.782 billion and 1.135 billion, both showing declines [4] Logistics Sector - Mindray Medical and Wanhua Chemical reported market capitalizations of 172.47 billion and 226.01 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 340 million and 340 million, both showing slight declines [4] Construction Sector - China State Construction and Zijin Mining reported market capitalizations of 478.93 billion and 233.05 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.613 billion and 493 million, showing minor fluctuations [4][5]

5月26日收盘，煤炭行业板块异动下行，截至目前下跌0.23%；其中新大洲A上涨4.31%，郑州煤电上涨 2.40%，电投能源、辽宁能源、安泰集团涨超1%。 煤炭行业个股资金流向上看：今日（5月26日）主力资金净流出金额前三名：中国神华、山煤国际、安 源煤业；分别流出5520.54万、1616.77万、1137.12万。 序号 名称 今日主力净流入 1 新大洲A 4.60 4.31% 2 郑州煤电 3.84 2.40% 3 电投能源 18.97 1.88% 4 辽宁能源 3.78 1.34% 5 安泰集团 1.94 1.04% 6 云煤能源 3.27 0.93% 7 宝泰隆 2.46 0.82% 8 淮北矿业 12.47 0.81% 9 美锦能源 4.21 0.72% 10 陕西黑猫 3.07 0.66% 1 中国神华 -5520.54万 2 山煤国际 -1616.77万 3 安源煤业 -1137.12万 4 大有能源 -787.75万 5 潞安环能 -699.72万 6 恒源煤电 -419.11万 7 甘肃能化 -390.93万 8 新集能源 -372.52万 9 辽宁能源 -362.06万 10 美锦能源 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua plans to increase its stake in the National Energy Group Financial Company by acquiring a total of 7.43% equity from its subsidiaries for a total price of 2.929 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance the net profit attributable to shareholders [1][2][5]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition will raise China Shenhua's stake in the financial company to 40%, while the National Energy Investment Group will maintain a 60% stake [2][4]. - The financial company reported a net profit of 3.5 billion yuan last year, with total assets amounting to 291.035 billion yuan [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2023, China Shenhua's revenue was 343.074 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.42% year-on-year, with a net profit of 59.694 billion yuan, down 14.29% [6][7]. - For 2024, the company expects a slight decline in revenue to 338.375 billion yuan, with a net profit of 58.671 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.71% [7]. Group 3: Strategic Moves - The company is accelerating the acquisition of quality coal assets to support long-term development, including a recent acquisition of 100% equity in Hangjin Energy for 850 million yuan [8]. - This acquisition is part of a strategy to position China Shenhua as the coal business integration platform for the National Energy Group, enhancing resource control and energy supply capabilities [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The pace of coal price decline is slowing, with attention on the seasonal demand increase due to the upcoming summer electricity peak [1][4]. - As of May 22, coal inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim was 32.106 million tons, down 1.31% week-on-week but up 25.22% year-on-year, indicating a high level but a declining trend [1][4]. - The average closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 RMB/ton, a decrease of 8 RMB/ton (-1.23%) compared to the previous week, with the decline rate less than the previous week [2][4]. - The summer electricity peak is approaching, which is expected to seasonally boost coal demand and support a rebound in coal prices [4]. Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - The average closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 RMB/ton, down 8 RMB/ton (-1.23%) for the week of May 19-23 [2]. - The average price of mixed thermal coal at Yulin, Shaanxi was 475 RMB/ton, down 16 RMB/ton (-3.26%) [2]. Inventory Levels - As of May 22, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 7.48 million tons, down 1.71% week-on-week but up 44.40% year-on-year [4]. - The coal inventory at Bohai Rim ports was 32.106 million tons, down 1.31% week-on-week but up 25.22% year-on-year [4]. Production and Utilization Rates - The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 62.4%, up 0.3 percentage points week-on-week but down 6.0 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 91.32%, down 0.44 percentage points week-on-week but up 2.78 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profitability, specifically China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price has stabilized, and daily consumption has increased, indicating potential opportunities for recovery in the sector during peak season [1] - The report highlights that the coal mining industry is showing signs of bottoming out, with a narrowing decline in coal prices and a decrease in port inventories [4][13] - The demand from coastal power plants is expected to strengthen as the peak season approaches, with significant replenishment potential [4][13] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Port coal prices have stabilized, with a weekly decline narrowing to 3 CNY/ton from 16 CNY/ton the previous week, maintaining at 611 CNY/ton from May 20 to May 23 [13][14] - The production capacity utilization rate in the main production areas has increased by 0.99 percentage points, mainly due to the resumption of normal operations after previous maintenance [13][21] - Daily consumption at coastal power plants has increased, with a week-on-week rise of 15.2 thousand tons for coastal plants [13][23] 2. Coking Coal - Supply has contracted slightly, with a decrease in production capacity utilization by 0.42 percentage points due to accidents and inventory pressures [5][40] - The average customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu port has decreased by 178 vehicles week-on-week [46] - Coking coal prices at the port have declined, with the main coking coal price at Jing Tang Port dropping by 20 CNY/ton [41][41] 3. Coke - The first round of price reductions for coke has been implemented, but the overall profit margins for coking enterprises remain acceptable [49] - The average profit per ton of coke has decreased by 22 CNY/ton week-on-week, indicating pressure on profitability [56] - The production rate of independent coking plants has varied, with an overall utilization rate of 75.16% [59] 4. Anthracite - The supply of anthracite remains stable, with prices holding steady due to sufficient market supply and demand being primarily driven by essential procurement [69][71] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report emphasizes the investment value of leading coal companies, highlighting their strong cash flow and high dividend yields [7] - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, all rated as "Buy" [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that marginal improvements in supply and demand have stabilized coal prices, indicating a potential recovery in coal asset allocation [1][4] - The coal sector is viewed as entering a "Golden Era 2.0," with core value assets expected to rise again due to favorable macroeconomic policies and capital market support [4][12] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The current weak domestic economic performance and external pressures, such as tariff policies, create a favorable environment for coal as a stable dividend investment [4][12] - The cyclical elasticity of coal stocks is highlighted, with both thermal and coking coal prices expected to rebound as supply-demand fundamentals improve [4][12] - The report notes a trend of increasing dividends among coal companies, indicating a strong response to policy support and a shift towards higher dividend payouts [4][12] Key Indicators Overview - The coal sector saw a slight increase of 1.03% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.21 percentage points [7][9] - The current PE ratio for the coal sector is 11.9, and the PB ratio is 1.19, ranking low among all A-share industries [9] Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of May 23, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 611 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.49% [3][15] - The operating rate of 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 81.3%, showing a minor decline [15] - Daily coal consumption by coastal power plants increased to 187.6 thousand tons, up 3.93% from the previous period [15] Coking Coal Industry Chain - The report indicates a slight decrease in port coking coal prices, with the average price at 1300 CNY/ton [16] - The market price for coking coal in Shanxi is reported at 1130 CNY/ton, down 4.24% [16] Company Announcements - Several coal companies have announced mid-term dividend plans, reflecting a trend towards higher shareholder returns [4][12] Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the resilience of black demand and the overall stability of the coal market despite recent price fluctuations [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [11][12] - The coal price is expected to stabilize at a new level, supported by a slowdown in coal production growth, particularly in high-cost regions like Xinjiang, and a decrease in coal imports [11][12] - The coal sector is characterized by high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) between 10-20%, and dividend yields exceeding 5%, indicating strong core asset attributes [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Trends - As of May 24, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 613 RMB/ton, down 5 RMB/ton week-on-week [3][30] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1320 RMB/ton, down 30 RMB/ton week-on-week [3][32] - International thermal coal prices show a mixed trend, with Newcastle thermal coal at 68.0 USD/ton, down 1.0 USD/ton week-on-week [3][30] 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The utilization rate of thermal coal mines increased to 97.1%, while coking coal mine utilization decreased to 86.3% [11][12] - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces rose by 7.10 thousand tons/day (+3.93%) and in inland provinces by 6.00 thousand tons/day (+1.93%) [11][12] - The April coal production in China was 390 million tons, reflecting a 5 million ton decrease from March, indicating a contraction in supply [11][12] 3. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of investing in high-quality coal companies with stable operations and strong performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [12][13] - The coal sector is expected to maintain high performance and cash flow, with a favorable outlook for the next 3-5 years due to ongoing supply constraints [12][13] 4. Market Performance - The coal sector saw a 0.98% increase this week, outperforming the broader market, which saw a 0.18% decline [15][18] - The thermal coal segment rose by 1.62%, while the coking coal segment experienced a slight decline [15][18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the coal price adjustment has been ongoing since Q4 2021, with the market now recognizing the prolonged decline. It suggests that the bottom of the price cycle may be near, urging stakeholders to maintain confidence and focus on the industry's fundamental attributes [6][7] - The report emphasizes the challenges faced by the Russian coal industry, including rising production costs, declining investment, and logistical issues due to sanctions, which have led to a decrease in coal exports [4][5] - The global metallurgical coal market is experiencing a shift, with supply tightening due to disruptions in Australian coal supply, leading to increased prices for high-quality coking coal [5][6] Summary by Sections Coal Mining - As of May 23, 2025, Brent crude oil futures settled at $64.78 per barrel, down $0.63 (-0.96%) from the previous week, while WTI crude oil futures settled at $61.53 per barrel, down $0.96 (-1.54%) [1] - The report notes that the price of coal at Newcastle port (6000K) is $218.9 per ton, unchanged from the previous week, while the price at the European ARA port is $91 per ton, also unchanged [1][38] Production and Demand - Russia's coal production remains around 440 million tons annually, with coking coal production at approximately 110 million tons. Domestic demand for coal in Russia is projected to grow by 13.13% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 205 million tons [4] - The report indicates that the share of electricity coal demand in Russia is about 46% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several coal companies for investment, including China Shenhua (H+A), China Coal Energy (H+A), and others, highlighting their performance and potential for recovery [6][7] - The report suggests that the domestic coal companies are facing increasing losses, with over 54.8% of coal enterprises reporting losses as of March 2025, indicating a higher likelihood of production cuts [6][7] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that by 2050, global metallurgical coal demand will decrease from 1.099 billion tons in 2024 to 885 million tons, with significant shifts in demand from China to India [5] - It is projected that the price of high-quality Australian coking coal will gradually rise due to long-term structural shortages [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [3][11]. Core Viewpoints - Coal prices have stabilized, and with the peak summer demand approaching, a rebound in coal prices is anticipated. The low coal prices have led to a reduction in supply, with April 2025 coal production growth slowing to 3.8% year-on-year, and daily production decreasing by 8.7% month-on-month [1][7]. - The report highlights that the demand for electricity coal is gradually increasing as temperatures rise, and the overall coal consumption in the chemical sector remains high. This marginal improvement in demand is expected to accelerate the reduction of port inventories, leading to a new round of price rebounds [1][7]. - The report emphasizes the investment value of stable high-dividend coal stocks, suggesting that the sector may experience a valuation uplift as coal prices enter an upward channel [1][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the coal supply has slightly decreased due to accidents affecting some coal mines, while demand is weakening as the consumption off-season approaches. This has led to a bearish sentiment in the market, with continued inventory accumulation [2][10]. - The report indicates that the average daily coal consumption in power plants has increased, while the number of available days has decreased, suggesting a tightening supply situation [9][10]. Company Performance - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, with China Shenhua expected to have an EPS of 2.95 yuan in 2024, and a PE ratio of 13 times [3]. - The report highlights that companies like Jinko Coal and Shanxi Coal International are expected to show stable performance and production growth, making them attractive investment options [11][3]. Market Performance - As of May 23, 2025, the coal sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.0%, outperforming the broader market indices [12][14]. - The report identifies that the coal stocks have cleared low positions after previous panic selling, and the stability of coal prices has been reaffirmed, enhancing the certainty of high dividend yields [1][7].