Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities suggests that after a turbulent period, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to trend upwards starting in the second half of 2025, following the full digestion of tariff impacts on the Chinese economy [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market may maintain a "bottom-lifting large box oscillation" pattern before fully digesting tariff impacts, with potential for improvement in fundamentals and risk appetite thereafter [1] - The U.S. economy is projected to face a downturn in the second and third quarters of 2025, with persistent inflation and challenges in monetary policy affecting market confidence [3][4] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three strategic asset classes during the current period of international order restructuring: gold, military industry, and digital assets [2] - The focus on technology and new consumption sectors is highlighted, with an emphasis on distinguishing between genuine growth and market noise [8] - The upcoming peak period for the unlocking of restricted shares from April to September 2025 presents buying opportunities for genuine growth stocks, as adjustments from unlockings and reductions are seen as noise [7][8] Group 3: Sector Highlights - The report emphasizes the importance of new consumption trends, including service consumption, spiritual consumption, and AI consumption, which are expected to drive growth in the Chinese market [5] - The technology sector is noted for its breakthroughs, showcasing China's competitive strength in areas such as AI, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] Group 4: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The restructuring of the international order is expected to benefit the Hong Kong stock market, with a wave of quality companies listing and increased inflow of domestic and international capital [6] - The report anticipates a long-term bull market for Hong Kong stocks driven by the revaluation of Chinese assets and the influx of new economy companies [6][7] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests a strategic long position in the Hong Kong stock market, with a focus on both offensive and defensive measures [7] - The trend of "A-share characteristics" in Hong Kong is expected to enhance market activity, allowing for a broader range of investment opportunities beyond traditional blue-chip stocks [8]

2)国内Tokens的价格也持续下探，2025年2月Deepseek V3百万Tokens输入(缓存命中)价格为0.5元，错峰 优惠时段为0.25元。 3)政策也开始提倡以AI应用为导向，中共中央政治局第二十次集体学习中强调"坚持自立自强、突出应 用导向"。同时该行也看到，A2A&MCP等协议架构开始广泛应用，全球Agent数量快速增长。该行认为 AI应用孵化的土壤已经完备，AI应用正迎来井喷时刻，AI应用的发展趋势将持续驱动传媒行情上涨。 建议关注本身正处于上升周期的应用场景，包括游戏、动画电影、出版等方向。 游戏 行业景气度回升+AI玩法持续应用，游戏公司有望迎来业绩和估值提振。产品周期叠加买量竞争缓和， 游戏公司业绩开始释放，且AI对制作和发行环节的降本增效作用显著，Tokens成本持续下降推动AINPC 等原生AI游戏玩法逐渐普及。推荐恺英网络、姚记科技、吉比特、昆仑万维等，建议关注完美世界、 盛天网络、巨人网络等。 智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研报称，长期来看，AI所引领的技术变革将带来应用侧的广阔机会， 传媒行业作为AI技术的重要应用阵地和试验田将长期受益。国产大模型的持续进步正逐渐拉近和世界 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise of emotional consumption is a natural outcome of economic development, marking the beginning of a "spiritual consumption era" in China, where consumers seek emotional resonance and identity recognition rather than just functional value from products [1] Group 1: Emotional Consumption Dynamics - Emotional-driven consumer behavior creates a resonance between cultural and commercial potential, exemplified by the transformation of ordinary items into premium symbols through storytelling and emotional connections [2] - Brands like Jellycat leverage interactive emotional marketing to create a high emotional experience chain, differentiating themselves in the plush toy market and driving consumer enthusiasm [2] - Cultural identity enhances brand value, as seen with brands like Laopuhuangjin, which evoke a sense of cultural belonging and identity among consumers, challenging international luxury brands [2] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy emphasizes capturing strategic opportunities brought by emotional functionality in both new and traditional sectors, with a focus on the beta opportunities in the trendy toy, gold jewelry, and urban outdoor markets [3] - Catalysts for stock price increases include the iteration of major products, the opening of high-potential stores, and the listing of new consumer companies [3] Group 3: Sector Insights - Trendy Toys: The Chinese pan-entertainment industry is projected to grow by 30% in 2024, with significant potential for IP development and consumption, particularly in blind boxes and collectible cards [4] - Gold Jewelry: Brands like Laopuhuangjin and Chow Tai Fook are moving away from traditional processing fees to offer products that satisfy high-net-worth consumers' needs for craftsmanship and cultural identity [5] - Urban Outdoor: The urban outdoor sector is emerging as a new lifestyle choice, expected to grow at a CAGR of 15% from 2024 to 2029, with brands like Anta Sports leading the way [6]

Industry Overview - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from domestic demand policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, with a focus on post-completion projects and renovation of second-hand homes [1] - As of April 30, the overall PB (Price to Book) for the construction materials sector is at 1.0x, indicating a historical low valuation, while the PE (Price to Earnings) for various segments shows significant differences [1] - In Q1 2025, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in 20 major cities reached 521,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 26.88%, indicating a resilient real estate market [1] Cement Sector - The cement market is experiencing a weak recovery in demand, with a projected year-on-year decline of 1.4% in Q1 2025 production, but municipal infrastructure is providing some support [2] - Central government policies promoting production optimization and price maintenance have improved the profitability of cement companies, with gross and net profit margins expected to rise in 2024 [2] - The overall average price of cement is anticipated to continue its upward trend in 2025, leading to a potential recovery in industry profits [2] Glass Sector - Demand for glass remains resilient, primarily driven by the progress in housing completion projects, although prices are under pressure due to overall weak demand [3] - Seasonal demand is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year, with fewer production lines expected to resume operations, leading to a more stable industry environment [3] - The recommendation for investment focuses on companies like Qibin Group, which are expected to see a reversal in profitability and valuation [3] Consumer Building Materials - Retail business is becoming a key growth driver, with leading companies accelerating their retail development in response to the renovation cycle of second-hand and existing homes [4] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with leading companies increasing their market share, particularly in the waterproofing materials sector [4] - The consumer building materials sector is currently undervalued, with a low allocation in public fund holdings, suggesting potential for growth [4] Glass Fiber Sector - The glass fiber industry is seeing a recovery in prices due to improved demand from wind energy and consumer electronics, with the average price reaching 3,812.5 yuan/ton as of April 18, 2025 [5] - Inventory levels have decreased, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance, which is favorable for long-term industry growth [5] - Leading companies in the glass fiber sector are expected to benefit from valuation and profit recovery opportunities [5]

Group 1: Core Insights - The external trade environment is highly uncertain, and traditional domestic consumption is relatively weak, making it difficult to show an overall upward trend [1] - The investment logic suggests a bottom-up approach to select leading companies with differentiated competitive advantages and strong earnings certainty [1] Group 2: New Consumption Sectors - The overall consumption is under pressure, but some sub-sectors show high growth potential; companies are adapting to channel changes and industry opportunities [2] - In the personal care sector, domestic brands are leveraging e-commerce and product upgrades to gain market share, with recommendations for companies like Baiya Co. and Haoyue Care [2] - The AI glasses sector is expected to see accelerated product launches by 2025, with Mingyue Lens recommended for its unique advantages [2] - The emotional consumption sector is gaining traction, with recommendations for companies like Chenguang Co. that are investing in IP resources [2] Group 3: Traditional Consumption Sectors - The home and paper industries face pressure from the overall consumption environment; investment points include the ability of quality stocks to leverage policy support and operational advantages [4] - In the home sector, the expansion of subsidy categories and amounts in 2025 presents opportunities for leading companies like Oppein and Sophia [4] - The paper industry is closely tied to economic cycles, with recommendations for Sun Paper due to its cost control capabilities and upcoming production [4] Group 4: Export Sector - Due to high uncertainty regarding tariffs, companies with established overseas production capabilities are at an advantage; some export sectors are highly dependent on U.S. and Vietnamese production [5] - Companies with lower exposure to U.S. exports are considered safer, while certain sub-sectors still show high growth potential due to rigid demand and changing consumption habits [5] - Recommended companies in the export sector include Jiayi Co., Gongchuang Turf, and Deou Technology [5]

2025年1-4月回顾 截至2025年4月30日，沪深300指数累计下跌4.2%，保险Ⅱ(申万)下跌6.1%，跑输沪深300指数1.9pct。具 体看，A股新华保险-3.2%>中国人保-6.5%>中国太保-12.4%>中国人寿-13.4%，各家均下跌，仅新华和 平安跑赢沪深300指数。板块估值回调且表现弱于大盘，主要因2025年保险股面临较大的业绩高基数压 力，同时资产端长端利率下行、资产荒加剧等投资端核心压制因素仍在持续，负债端开门红新单销售不 及预期，保险股估值在去年修复到相对合理位置后，受以上利空因素影响回撤。 行业投资逻辑 保险公司盈利由承保利润和投资利润构成。承保利润受保费收入以及赔付和运营成本影响。投资利润取 决于投资收益和负债的利率成本，受资本市场、预定利率以及产品结构影响。该行认为保险行业2025下 半年将以资产负债结构调整优化为核心，演绎破局利差损困局的核心主线，若被验证将对重估保险配置 价值提供有力支撑。 智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研报称，看好保险β配置机会，聚焦业绩确定性较强、资负匹配较优 以及业绩弹性较强标的。该行认为前期保险估值的回调已经充分反映当期利率下行以及后续业绩承压的 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of local governments and securities firms in supporting the development of technology enterprises, particularly in Fujian Province, through various measures and initiatives [1][3][4] - Fujian Province has introduced a set of measures to enhance the capabilities of local securities firms, including capital infusion, optimizing incentive structures, and improving international presence to better serve technology enterprises [1][4] - The article highlights the establishment of a reserve system for potential listed technology enterprises, aiming to select and nurture high-quality companies that align with national and provincial strategic needs [3][4] Group 2 - The article discusses the financial policies introduced by the Chinese government to support technological innovation, including measures for listing financing, mergers and acquisitions, bond issuance, and private equity investment [2] - Fujian Province plans to create a 10 billion yuan provincial-level science and technology innovation fund to empower quality technology enterprises, alongside encouraging local banks to establish financial asset investment companies [4] - Securities firms like Huafu Securities and Industrial Securities are actively responding to these policies by investing in local technology enterprises, focusing on early-stage, small, and long-term investments in hard technology sectors [5][6] Group 3 - Huafu Securities has invested in 18 specialized and innovative enterprises and 6 unicorn companies, demonstrating a commitment to long-term capital support for core technology advancements [5] - Industrial Securities has invested approximately 3.7 billion yuan in 90 high-quality private technology enterprises, successfully helping 7 of them go public [6] - Both firms are adopting a comprehensive service model that integrates capital, industry, and finance to foster the development of local technology enterprises [7]

中信证券：关于回归基准配置的几个误区和几个事实 我们认为市场对于公募考核新规以及回归基准行业配置的讨论存在一些误区。从海外经验来看，回归基准是通 过基准的行业配比向基金持仓配比演化而不是相反；产品投资策略向客户盈利导向回归，在长期视野下，这与 追求排名和绝对收益并不矛盾，反而是统一的；跑输基准的惩罚机制最终导致的是基金减少博弈性持仓，长期 来看最大的影响是活跃头寸的占比下降。 此外，用前瞻眼光去看，未来如果外资逐步回流，市场生态也会相较过去3年发生重大转变，不能用后视镜视 角静态去看行业配比，好公司和差公司之间的差异会远远超过所谓的"好行业"和"差行业"。 申万宏源：公募持仓向业绩比较基准靠拢未必是普遍趋势 《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》是长期改革，而其短期映射，成为结构性行情的主要线索。在我们看 来，主动公募产品调整业绩比较基准，是集中梳理产品策略的一次机遇。而持仓向业绩比较基准靠拢却未必是 普遍趋势。 如何去有效地设定基准是长期而言实现客户利益、赢得竞争并避免被被动型产品替代的最关键问题。对于主动 权益型产品而言，沪深300、中证800以及A500作为全市场基金基准都有较大的局限性，能够反映新质生产力 ...

Core Insights - The financial reports for 2024 and Q1 2025 reveal significant fluctuations in A-share performance, with a notable recovery in net profit growth in Q1 2025 after a substantial decline in 2024 [2][6][26] Group 1: Financial Performance Analysis - The net profit growth rate for non-financial A-shares in Q1 2025 was 3.31%, a recovery from a -13.36% decline in 2024 [2][5] - The increase in net profit in Q1 2025 was primarily driven by operating income, which contributed 212.33 billion yuan, and financial investment income, which added 114.01 billion yuan [2][5] - The significant drop in net profit in Q4 2024 was mainly due to a sharp decline in operating income, which saw a year-on-year decrease of 12.42% [3][5] Group 2: Impacts of Impairment Losses - The 2024 annual report indicated a substantial increase in asset impairment losses and credit impairment losses, which significantly pressured net profit [6][9] - Key industries affected by impairment losses included non-ferrous metals, retail, machinery, transportation, and communications [9] Group 3: Value Changes and Government Subsidies - In Q1 2025, fair value changes in financial investments saw a significant increase, contributing to net profit growth [11][14] - Government subsidies related to daily business activities increased, particularly in sectors like real estate, social services, and public infrastructure, with "other income" reaching 889.59 billion yuan [16] Group 4: Industry Performance and Cash Flow - Industries showing significant improvement in operating income in Q1 2025 included steel, non-ferrous metals, electronics, and machinery, with some sectors like agriculture and construction materials also reporting high growth rates [18][19] - Adjusted operating cash flow metrics indicate potential for improved cash generation in sectors such as agriculture, electronics, and household appliances [20][21] Group 5: Strategic Expansion Trends - Strategic expansion activities, including internal capacity expansion and external acquisitions, accelerated in Q1 2025, particularly in the automotive, household appliances, and coal industries [24][25] Group 6: Free Cash Flow and Stakeholder Returns - The ability of companies to generate free cash flow to meet stakeholder demands reached historical highs, with 13.70% of non-financial A-share companies able to cover their obligations [26][27]

Group 1 - The company is closely monitoring capital market dynamics and plans to strategically consider refinancing and equity incentive plans to support high-quality development [2] - The company has maintained stable operating performance and aims to improve profit margins through cost reduction and efficiency enhancement initiatives [3] - The company has over 40 years of experience in military trade, which remains a key area for performance growth, with ongoing efforts to expand its military trade business [4] Group 2 - The company is implementing various measures to help Guifei turn profitable, including enhancing manufacturing capabilities, improving management efficiency, and strengthening cost control [5][6] - The company prioritizes shareholder returns, committing to distribute at least 30% of the annual net profit to shareholders in cash dividends, exceeding regulatory requirements [7] - The company's main business includes the development and production of aircraft measurement and control products, power distribution systems, and other related equipment [7] Group 3 - The company's Q1 2025 report shows a significant decline in main revenue to 3.309 billion yuan, down 81.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 156 million yuan, down 89.5% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit increased by 735.57% [7] - The company's debt ratio stands at 81.54%, with investment income of 2.1088 million yuan and financial expenses of -64.3736 million yuan, resulting in a gross profit margin of 11.05% [7] - Recent institutional ratings indicate a positive outlook, with two institutions giving buy ratings [8]