贵金属日报：高位震荡 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月9日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场延续震荡调整，因美联储利率决议及会后声明传递偏鹰信号不着急降息及美指明显回 升，以及美英贸易谈判缓和避险情绪。接下来焦点转向周内中美贸易谈判。最终黄金2506合约收报 3310.4美元/盎司，-2.4%；美白银2507合约收报于32.605美元/盎司，-0.57%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合 约收报790.78元/克，-1.41%；SHFE白银2506合约收8094元/千克，-1.78%。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为83.5%，降息25个基点的概率为 16.5%；美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为29.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为60.1%，累计降息50个基 点的概率为10.7%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为12.2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为42.1%，累计 降息50个基点的概率为39.4%，累计降息75个基点的概率为6.2%。长线基金看，SPDR黄金ETF持仓日增 2.01吨至93 ...

Core Insights - The overall performance of the 53 listed futures companies showed resilience and steady progress in 2023, with a total net profit of nearly 8 billion yuan, slightly up from 7.5 billion yuan in 2022 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - 18 companies achieved net profits exceeding 100 million yuan, with half of them showing year-on-year growth [2]. - 29 companies reported net profits below 100 million yuan, with many turning losses into profits or achieving profit growth [2]. - Six companies reported losses, with the largest loss exceeding 70 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Business Strategy and International Expansion - Many futures companies are actively adjusting their business strategies, particularly focusing on international business and over-the-counter derivatives [3][4]. - Nanhua Futures has seen improvements in its business coordination and has expanded its overseas financial services, leading to growth in client equity and revenue structure [3]. - The overall trend in the futures industry includes diversification of business, with significant growth in international and over-the-counter business segments [4][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The futures industry is experiencing intensified competition in brokerage services, with increased concentration among leading firms [4]. - Risk management services are innovating, providing effective solutions for small and medium enterprises [4]. - The international business segment is becoming a key growth driver for many listed futures companies, supported by policy and market openness [4][5][6].

南华期货股份有限公司 关于股份回购进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： | 回购方案首次披露日 | 2024/7/9 | | --- | --- | | 回购方案实施期限 | 自董事会审议通过后 12 个月 | | 预计回购金额 | 5,000万元~10,000万元 | | 回购用途 | □减少注册资本 √用于员工持股计划或股权激励 | | | □用于转换公司可转债 | | | □为维护公司价值及股东权益 | | 累计已回购股数 | 568.12万股 | | 累计已回购股数占总股本比例 | 0.93% | | 累计已回购金额 | 5,008.88万元 | | 实际回购价格区间 | 8.55元/股~9.37元/股 | 一、回购股份的基本情况 南华期货股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 7 月 8 日召开第四届 董事会第十五次会议，审议通过《关于回购股份方案的议案》，同意以不低于人民 币 5,000 万元（含本数），不超过人民币 10,000 万元（含本数）的自有资金通过 集中竞价 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has announced the public consultation for the futures and options contracts of casting aluminum alloy, indicating the upcoming listing of these products, which will enhance the derivatives series of metal futures in China [1] - The listing of aluminum alloy futures and options is seen as a significant step in supporting the real economy and the "dual carbon" strategy, as well as a key development in the risk management system of China's aluminum industry chain [1] - Currently, the Shanghai Futures Exchange has already listed futures and options contracts for electrolytic aluminum and alumina, along with various non-ferrous metal futures derivatives [1] Group 2 - Aluminum alloys are categorized based on their composition and processing methods, with casting aluminum alloys being produced from recycled aluminum and used in various applications due to their favorable properties [5][8] - The most representative recycled casting aluminum alloy is ADC12, which holds over 70% market share in casting aluminum alloys and is widely used in automotive and electronic applications [8][31] - The production cost of ADC12 is primarily influenced by the price of recycled aluminum, which constitutes 88%-92% of its cost, while silicon and copper are secondary materials [10] Group 3 - The recycled aluminum alloy industry chain consists of three main segments: upstream (waste aluminum collection), midstream (recycled aluminum production), and downstream (end-use applications) [5][24] - In 2024, China's aluminum alloy production is projected to reach 16.14 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 9.6%, while the production capacity for recycled aluminum alloys is expected to be 17.62 million tons [24] - The automotive sector is the core demand source for ADC12, which is essential for manufacturing engine components and contributes to vehicle lightweighting and performance [31][33] Group 4 - The recycling rate of waste aluminum in China has increased from 70% in 2010 to 84% in 2023, reflecting improvements in the recycling system and resource utilization [19] - The domestic waste aluminum supply is primarily sourced from local recycling, with a significant portion coming from construction, transportation, and electronic sectors [14][16] - The market for recycled aluminum is expected to grow, driven by increasing demand in various industries, including automotive, electronics, and household appliances [33]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Affected by the news of crude steel reduction, the profit of steel mills on the futures market has expanded rapidly. Recently, the spot price of steel has followed the increase, and the immediate spot profit of steel has improved. High profits will drive the continued increase in hot metal production. In the short term, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both strong, and the price bottom has certain support. In the medium and long term, considering that it takes time to formulate the details of the crude steel reduction policy, if the policy cannot be implemented immediately, steel mills have no incentive to cut production voluntarily under high profits. When the real demand weakens in late May, the contradictions in the steel market will accumulate again, and the black industry will face a new round of negative feedback. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, hold a light position during the May Day holiday, and short jm&j2509 at high prices after the holiday [4]. Group 3: Risk Management Strategy Recommendations Coking Coal - For traders with high coking coal spot inventory worried about further price drops, to prevent price declines from affecting trading profits, they can sell coking coal futures (JM2509) to lock in the sales price in advance. The recommended hedging ratio is 25% at 980 - 1030, 50% at 1030 - 1080 [3]. Coke - For coking plants with high finished - product inventory worried about coke price drops, to prevent price declines from damaging coking profits, they can short coke futures (J2509) according to the sales plan to lock in the price. The recommended hedging ratio is 25% at 1600 - 1650, 50% at 1650 - 1700 [3]. Group 4: Market Conditions Analysis 利多 Factors - Steel mills have high profits, and there is still an expectation of increased hot metal production [5]. 利空 Factors - The trade war has escalated, and the US has imposed huge tariffs on China, causing concerns about steel exports. - Coking coal is in serious oversupply. In the Shanxi region, producers are increasing production and reducing prices to maintain sales volume. - The topic of crude steel reduction has been hyped repeatedly [5]. Group 5: Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report | Commodity | Unit | 2025 - 04 - 28 | 2025 - 04 - 25 |环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | Tons | 199647 | 202077 | - 2430 | | Hot - rolled coil | Tons | 349673 | 353201 | - 3528 | | Iron ore | Lots | 3200 | 3200 | 0 | | Coking coal | Lots | 0 | 100 | - 100 | | Coke | Lots | 890 | 890 | 0 | | Silico - manganese | Sheets | 123129 | 122403 | 726 | | Silico - iron | Sheets | 14906 | 14287 | 619 | [5] Group 6: Spot Price and Profit Data Coking Coal and Coke Spot Prices - Multiple types of coking coal and coke spot prices are provided, including prices of different origins such as Anze low - sulfur coking coal, Mongolian coal, and Australian coal, as well as coke prices in different regions like Lvliang and Rizhao. There are also price changes compared to previous days and weeks [7]. Import and Export Profits - Import and export profit data of coking coal and coke are presented, including import profits of Mongolian coal, Australian coal, and Russian coal, as well as coke export profit. There are also daily and weekly profit changes [7]. Basis and Spread Data - Multiple sets of basis and spread data of coking coal and coke are provided, such as coking coal 09 - 01, coke 05 - 09, etc., along with changes compared to previous days and weeks [7]. Ratio and Profit Data - Data on ratios such as the main coking coal/dynamic coal ratio, main ore - coke ratio, main screw - coke ratio, and main coke - coal ratio, as well as profit data such as the on - screen coking profit are presented, along with changes compared to previous days and weeks [7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass: Trades on long - term demand with a pessimistic outlook. There is still inventory pressure in the upper and middle reaches, and the industry chain is expected to face over - supply pressure. The supply side remains at a low - level fluctuation, marginal production lines are in a loss state, and the cost of petroleum coke has slightly increased. However, there is still ignition expectation on the supply side, demand improvement is limited, production and sales are weak, and coal - gas cost has decreased [3]. -纯碱: The industry chain still has profits, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand and over - supply is difficult to reverse. Maintenance can only cause short - term disturbances. In May, there are more factory maintenance activities than in April, increasing supply disturbances. Rigid demand is stable, photovoltaic demand has improved, and exports continue to exceed expectations, alleviating domestic over - supply pressure. However, daily production is at a high level, new production capacity is being put into operation, and social inventory is at an absolute historical high [3]. 3. Content Summaries by Category Price Forecast - Glass price is predicted to be in the range of 1000 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 34.52% and a historical percentile of 77.1% in the past 3 years.纯碱 price is predicted to be in the range of 1200 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.66% and a historical percentile of 10.9% in the past 3 years [2]. Hedging Strategies - **Glass Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short FG2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 1250 - 1300, and sell FG509C1400 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 20 - 30. For those with low procurement inventory, they can buy FG2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 1050 - 1100, and sell FG509P1060 put options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 50 - 70 [2]. - **纯碱 Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short SA2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 1450 - 1500, and sell SA509C1500 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 25 - 35. For those with low procurement inventory, they can buy SA2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 1200 - 1250, and sell SA509P1200 put options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 [2]. Price and Basis Data - **Glass**: On April 28, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1078, 1122, and 1172 respectively, with daily increases of 0.37%, 0.09%, and 0.43%. The average price of沙河 glass delivery products was 1236.4, with a daily increase of 1.8 [4][5]. - **纯碱**: On April 28, 2025, the prices of纯碱 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1319, 1364, and 1368 respectively, with daily decreases of 0.15%, 0.07%, and 0.51%. The heavy - alkali market prices in North China, South China, and other regions remained unchanged, and the light - alkali market prices also remained stable [6][7][8].

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至4月28日收盘主力合约PTA2509,涨跌+1.91%,成交量169.41万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 空，差额头寸为126676手。 PTA期货全合约总计成交244.64万手，比上一日新增81.61万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓104.40万手，比上一日增加3.01万手。全 合约前20席位空头持仓118.70万手，比上一日增加2.08万手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为国泰君安，总持仓175104、中信期货，总持仓89883、东吴期货，总持仓75975；空头前三席 位为国泰君安，总持仓180191、中信期货，总持仓153598、摩根大通，总持仓110925； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：国泰君安、持仓135365、增仓35930，国贸期货、持仓59091、增仓8721，中信期 货、持仓105413、增仓6196；空头减仓前三名分别是：乾坤期货、持仓95284、减仓-8366，永安期货、持仓22860、减仓-6839， 南华期货、持仓15900、减仓-4118。 文章来源:新浪期货 2025年4月28日PTA主力合约2509持仓数据一览 主力合约前20席 ...

戴一帆：Z0015428 周燕勤：F03129302 黄思婕：F03130744 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 号 周度观点 南华苯乙烯产业链数据周报20250427 港口去库，基差走弱 | | 上游(纯苯) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 截至4月24日，石油苯开工率71.1%，环比+0.8%;加氢苯开工率58.2%,环比-3.1%。据评估，2025年3月韩国出口纯苯总计31.48 万吨,其中出口至中国29.02万吨。 | | | 库存 | 截至4月21日,江苏纯莱港口库存12.1万吨,较上期去库2.1万吨,环比下降14.79%。 | | | | 中游(苯乙烯) | | | 供应 | 截至4月24日,苯乙烯开工率67.9%,环比+1.1% | | | 库存 | 截至2025年4月21日，江苏莱乙烯港口库存8.65万吨，较上周期去库0.91万吨，幅度一9.52%；截至2025年4月24日，中国苯乙烯 | | | | 工厂样本库存量21.63万吨,较上一周期增减少0.22万吨,环比减少1%。 | | | 利润 | 截至4月24日,苯乙烯一体化利润在-379元/吨附 ...

展望后市，从短期市场驱动因素分析，前期致使美元走弱的核心因素 —— 国际贸易局势，现阶段出 现了短暂的边际缓和迹象。这一变化对市场风险偏好形成了支撑，在一定程度上，可能促使美元指数呈现 技术性修复态势。然而，从中期基本面视角审视，美国经济增长前景依旧低迷，其黯淡状况并未得到根本 性扭转，这对美元持续走强构成了实质性约束。美元兑人民币即期汇率方面，临近五一假期，市场交易活 跃度可能有所下降，大概率延续前期态势，在一定区间内保持相对稳定。不过，在假期期间，需重点关注 以下宏观风险因素： 1）贸易摩擦的不确定性依然存在，关税主题后续的演绎方向和程度仍需高度警惕，其发展态势或对 市场预期产生重大影响； 2）特朗普政府政策与美联储货币政策之间存在根本性矛盾，这一矛盾的解决路径及演变过程，将在 较大程度上左右金融市场走向； 3）受关税威胁影响下的5月初相关经济数据表现，尤其是五一假期间公布的非农就业数据。 风险点：海外货币政策调整超预期、地缘政治冲突超预期、特朗普非常规出牌 南华外汇（美元兑人民币）周报 五一假期临近，注意宏观风险 周骥 （投资咨询证号：Z0017101） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report shows that the Nanhua Commodity Index had a widespread increase during the period from April 18 to April 25, 2025, with the non - ferrous metals leading the rise [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Nanhua Commodity Index Series Weekly Review - **Market Data**: In the week from April 18 - 25, 2025, most of the Nanhua commodity indices rose. The comprehensive index (NHCI) closed at 2452.83, up 31.41 points or 1.30% from last week. The non - ferrous metal index (NHNFI) increased by 1.45%, showing strong performance. Other indices like the metal index (NHMI), industrial products index (NHII), etc., also had varying degrees of increase [7]. - **Index Ratio Comparison**: Ratios such as the non - ferrous metal index/industrial products index increased by 0.002, while the precious metal index/comprehensive index decreased by 0.005. Some ratios are close to historical tops or bottoms as indicated by the ranking index [8]. - **Futures Contract Position Ranking**: The average position of some futures contracts changed. For example, the average position of soybean meal decreased by 3.25% week - on - week, while that of iron ore increased by 4.42% [17]. 3.2 Weekly Data of Nanhua's Sub - sector Indices - **Industrial Products Index**: It closed at 3539.28, up 38.06 points or 1.09% from last week. There were also data on related supplementary indicators [18]. - **Metal Index**: It closed at 6148.72, up 68.33 points or 1.12% from last week, with corresponding supplementary data [20]. - **Energy and Chemical Index**: It closed at 1656.60, up 13.05 points or 0.79% from last week, along with related supplementary information [24]. - **Agricultural Products Index**: It closed at 1087.74, up 15.42 points or 1.44% from last week, and had supplementary data [27]. - **Black Index**: It closed at 2434.57, up 0.79% from last week. The three varieties with the largest contributions were iron ore, rebar, and coke [29]. - **Non - ferrous Index**: It closed at 1645.52, up 1.45% from last week. The three varieties with the largest contributions were 미, aluminum, and zinc [31].