盈利预测：公司十四五计划的第一年实现圆满收官，全年净利润顺利达成员工持股业绩考核目标，即 2024 年归母净利润同比增长不低于10.8%。目前公司库存水平保持较良性水平，渠道调整到位，经销商 数量由优化、减少转稳步扩张，销售团队人员同步扩招，市场份额提升明显，未来有望继续领先行业增 长。展望2025 年，公司有望继续保持收入、利润双位数的增长趋势。我们预计2025-2027 年实现收入 295.6/323.4/353.4 亿元，同比增长9.9%/9.4%/9.3%，实现归母净利润70.2/77.4/84.6 亿元，同比增长 10.6%/10.3%/9.3%，对应PE 为32/29/27X。我们按照2025 年业绩给38 倍PE，一年目标价47.88 元，维 持"买入"评级。 风险提示：食品安全风险；行业竞争加剧；原材料成本上涨风险；餐饮需求恢复不及预期；渠道调整效 果不及预期。 成本红利释放+内部持续提效，全年盈利水平稳中有升。2024 公司毛利率同比+2.3pct 至37.0%，主因大 豆、PET 包材等原材料成本下降，公司持续优化生产、研发及管理环节，内部效率稳步提升。费用方 面，2024 年销售/管理费 ...

以下文章来源于数据宝 ，作者宁墨 数据宝 . 数据宝——证券时报智能原创新媒体，中国股市大数据新媒体领先品牌，依托证券时报财经数据库和证监会 指定信息披露媒体的权威信息，让您用手机也能从海量数据中获得有用的决策信息支持，数据是个宝，炒股 少烦恼！ 近日，美国宣布对所有贸易伙伴征收"对等关税"，全球资本市场剧烈震荡。在外部风险加剧的背景下，资金会倾 向于流向更具稳定性和盈利能力的资产，A股中长期维持高净资产收益率的公司，正是这类优质企业的代表。 7股近10年净资产收益率均超15% 净资产收益率（ROE）作为衡量企业盈利能力的核心指标，备受投资大佬青睐。巴菲特曾提出："如果非要我用一个 指标进行选股，我会选择ROE，那些ROE能常年持续稳定在20%以上的公司都是好公司，投资者应当考虑买入。" 一般来说，长期维持高ROE的企业，往往具备稳健的经营策略和持续的盈利水平，并且拥有强大的竞争优势，涵盖 出色的管理团队、强大的专利技术、特许经营权、行业先发优势或规模优势，以及优秀的团队和创新能力等特征。 据证券时报·数据宝统计，截至4月6日，在2015年前上市且披露2024年年报的A股公司中，有7股去年境外收入占比低 于1 ...

海天味业近期交出年报，2024年实现营收269.01亿元、净利润63.44亿元，同比分别增长9.53%和 12.75%，业绩重回增长轨道。值得关注的是，尽管业绩表现亮眼，但公司在增长过程中仍面临一些潜 在问题，其营收未达预期目标、国际化进程缓慢，海外收入占比不足10%。同时，新规禁止"零添加"标 识的政策落地，或对其近年高速增长的"零添加"产品线造成冲击。业内认为，海天味业需在品质竞争与 健康化转型中寻找新增长点。 营收、净利双增长 与2023年营收净利双双下滑的业绩对比，海天味业2024年业绩可谓"破局"，实现总营收269.01亿元，同 比增长9.53%，净利润为63.44亿元，同比增长12.75%，实现营收净利双增的局面。海天味业称，2024年 是公司四五规划的开局首年，是承压破局的一年。面对外部环境的不确定性，公司坚守产品品质优先， 坚持刀刃向内的变革，以用户至上的价值导向牵引各业务快速转型。 不过，虽然海天味业营收规模再创新高，净利润也重回双位数增长，但在2023年财报中，公司制定2024 年要实现"营收275.1亿元，净利62.3亿元"的全年目标，目前来看，营收未达预期，盈利方面则是超额达 成。 值 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 26.901 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 10% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 6.344 billion yuan, up 13% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin improved by 2 percentage points to 37.00% due to declining raw material costs, while the net profit margin increased by 1 percentage point to 23.63% [2] - The company plans to continue increasing its investment in marketing and promotional activities to enhance its product offerings and customer engagement [2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue from soy sauce reached 13.758 billion yuan, with a sales volume of 2.5655 million tons, reflecting a 9% increase in revenue and a 12% increase in volume [3] - The revenue from other categories, including vinegar and cooking wine, grew by 17% to 4.086 billion yuan, indicating strong performance in smaller product categories [3] Channel Development - Offline channel revenue was 23.885 billion yuan, up 9%, driven by enhanced distribution network density and resource allocation [4] - Online channel revenue surged by 40% to 1.243 billion yuan, showcasing the effectiveness of the company's online operations [4] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 1.24, 1.38, and 1.51 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 33, 30, and 27 times [9]

Company Performance - Haitian Flavor Industry reported a revenue of 26.901 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.53%, and a net profit of 6.344 billion yuan, up 12.75% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, Haitian's revenue reached 6.502 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.03%, and a net profit of 1.529 billion yuan, growing 17.82% year-on-year [1] - The growth in Haitian's performance may be influenced by a decline in average prices, as the company expanded into the catering and lower-tier markets, which pressured prices [1] Product Breakdown - For 2024, revenue from Haitian's soy sauce, seasoning sauce, oyster sauce, and other products was 13.76 billion, 2.67 billion, 4.62 billion, and 4.09 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.9%, 10.0%, 8.6%, and 16.8% [1] - In Q4, the revenue growth for soy sauce, seasoning sauce, oyster sauce, and other products was 13.6%, 13.2%, 15.4%, and 7.1% respectively [1] Margin and Cost Factors - Despite a 2.5% decline in the price per ton of soy sauce, the volume sold increased by 11.6%, indicating a strategic focus on market share over pricing [1] - The gross margin for Haitian improved by 2.3 percentage points to 37.0% due to a decrease in raw material prices and economies of scale [1] Competitive Landscape - In contrast, Qianhe Flavor Industry faced operational pressures, with a revenue of 2.288 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, down 1.85% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.352 billion yuan, down 9.19% [4] - Qianhe's soy sauce revenue declined by 2.44% to 1.435 billion yuan, attributed to intensified price competition leading to proactive inventory management and price restructuring [4] Market Trends - The performance disparity between Haitian and Qianhe may be more related to the trend of cost-effectiveness rather than public perception [5]

Core Viewpoint - Company reported a stable revenue growth for 2024, with total revenue reaching 26.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.344 billion yuan, up 12.75% year-on-year [1] Revenue Performance - For 2024, revenue from soy sauce, seasoning sauce, oyster sauce, and other categories reached 13.758 billion, 2.669 billion, 4.615 billion, and 4.086 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.87%, 9.97%, 8.56%, and 16.75% [2] - In Q4 2024, revenue from soy sauce, seasoning sauce, oyster sauce, and other categories grew by 13.57%, 13.17%, 15.38%, and 7.13% year-on-year [2] - Online and offline channels in Q4 2024 saw year-on-year growth of 59.25% and 11.19% respectively, indicating strong online channel performance [2] - By region in Q4 2024, revenue growth was recorded at 8.64% in the East, 20.52% in the South, 11.99% in the Central, 20.32% in the North, and 12.85% in the West [2] Cash Flow and Profitability - Q4 2024 sales receipts totaled 10.744 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.14%, while contract liabilities decreased by 0.192 billion yuan to 4.335 billion yuan [3] - The gross profit margin for 2024 improved by 2.26 percentage points to 37.00%, contributing to enhanced profitability [3] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders increased by 0.67 percentage points to 23.58% for 2024 [3] - The dividend payout ratio rose from 65.06% in 2023 to 75.24% in 2024 [3] Profit Forecast - Company forecasts revenues of 29.787 billion, 32.713 billion, and 35.758 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 10.73%, 9.82%, and 9.31% respectively [4] - Expected net profits attributable to shareholders for the same period are 7.102 billion, 7.804 billion, and 8.533 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.94%, 9.88%, and 9.34% respectively [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.28, 1.40, and 1.53 yuan per share for 2025-2027 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth and improved profitability year-on-year. The revenue for 2024 was slightly below expectations, while the profit met expectations. The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is projected to grow by 12.0%, 12.7%, and 10.9% respectively [3][6] - The company is benefiting from cost reductions in raw materials, leading to an increase in gross margin and net profit margin. The net profit margin for 2024 improved by 0.66 percentage points to 23.63% [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue and net profit were 26.901 billion and 6.344 billion respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 9.53% and 12.75% [3] - The revenue forecast for 2025 is 29.607 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 10.1% [7] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 7.103 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 12.0% [7] - The gross margin for 2024 was 37.00%, an increase of 2.26 percentage points from the previous year [5] - The company’s total market capitalization is 226.15 billion [1] Business Segment Performance - The company's condiment business has shown steady growth, with soy sauce, seasoning sauce, and oyster sauce revenues increasing by 8.87%, 9.97%, and 8.56% respectively. The online channel revenue grew significantly by 39.78% [4][6] - The company is actively expanding its new retail channels and enhancing its distribution capabilities, which is expected to contribute to continued revenue growth [6] Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a steady growth momentum in 2025, driven by the release of reform dividends and the expansion of its product offerings in the condiment sector [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Haitian Flavor Industry Co., Ltd. (603288.SH) [1][8] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 26.901 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.53%, and a net profit of 6.344 billion yuan, up 12.75% year-on-year [3][4] - The gross profit margin improved significantly to 37.00%, an increase of 2.26 percentage points, driven by lower raw material costs and production efficiency enhancements [6][8] - The product matrix continues to expand, with all categories showing effective growth, particularly soy sauce, which generated revenue of 13.758 billion yuan, up 8.87% year-on-year [6][8] - The company has optimized its channel network, achieving balanced revenue growth across different regions, with the southern region showing the fastest growth at 12.88% [6][8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 26.901 billion yuan, with a net profit of 6.344 billion yuan and a gross profit margin of 37.00% [3][6] - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a steady growth in net profit, with estimates of 7.004 billion yuan, 7.740 billion yuan, and 8.463 billion yuan respectively [8][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 1.14 yuan in 2024 to 1.52 yuan by 2027 [10][11] Financial Ratios - The net profit margin is expected to remain stable, with projections of 23.6% for 2025 and 24.2% for 2027 [10] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 20.5% in 2024, gradually decreasing to 18.8% by 2027 [10] - The company's asset-liability ratio is projected to decrease from 23.1% in 2024 to 19.5% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, driven by dual benefits from cost reductions and reform dividends [7] - The company achieved a total revenue of 26.9 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.344 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year [7] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from reform dividends in 2025, with stable growth anticipated [7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 26,901 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.53% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 6,344 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.75% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 1.14 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.80 [1] - The gross profit margin improved by 2.3 percentage points to 37% in 2024, with a significant increase in Q4 gross margin to 37.7% [7] - The company expects revenue growth of 10% to 11% for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth also projected at 11% for the same period [7] Product and Channel Performance - The company saw strong performance across various product categories in 2024, with soy sauce, oyster sauce, and seasoning sauces growing by 8.9%, 8.6%, and 10% respectively [7] - Online sales surged by 59% year-on-year in Q4 2024, while offline sales grew by 11% [7] - The company reduced its distributor count to 6,707 as part of its channel reform strategy [7] Cost and Profitability Analysis - The company benefited from cost reductions, with direct material costs for soy sauce, oyster sauce, and seasoning sauces decreasing by 6.8%, 7.6%, and 6.5% respectively [7] - The net profit margin for 2024 increased by 1.56 percentage points, indicating improved profitability [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 51.20 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company has shown steady progress with an increase in market share, achieving revenue of 26.9 billion RMB and net profit of 6.34 billion RMB for 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9.5% and 12.8% respectively [1][4]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from favorable policies and demand recovery, with a focus on channel and product expansion to further enhance market share [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported revenue of 26.9 billion RMB, net profit of 6.34 billion RMB, and non-recurring net profit of 6.07 billion RMB, representing year-on-year increases of 9.5%, 12.8%, and 12.5% respectively [1]. - In Q4 2024, revenue reached 6.5 billion RMB, with net profit and non-recurring net profit at 1.53 billion RMB and 1.45 billion RMB, showing year-on-year growth of 10.0%, 17.8%, and 17.1% respectively [1]. Product Performance - Revenue from soy sauce, seasoning sauce, oyster sauce, and other products for 2024 was 13.76 billion RMB, 2.67 billion RMB, 4.62 billion RMB, and 4.09 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.9%, 10.0%, 8.6%, and 16.8% respectively [2]. - The company plans to increase its focus on the catering and lower-tier markets in 2025, aiming for volume growth despite price pressures [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for 2024 improved by 2.3 percentage points to 37.0%, driven by lower raw material costs and economies of scale [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 increased by 0.7 percentage points to 23.6%, with expectations for continued cost advantages in 2025 [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its leading market position and continue to increase its market share through ongoing channel reforms and product expansion strategies [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly raised to 1.28 RMB and 1.42 RMB, respectively, with a new EPS estimate for 2027 at 1.59 RMB [4].