沪指5月14日上涨0.86%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有24个，涨幅居前的行业为非银金融、交通运 输，涨幅分别为3.99%、1.79%。跌幅居前的行业为国防军工、美容护理，跌幅分别为0.74%、0.39%。 美容护理行业位居今日跌幅榜第二。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流入45.92亿元，今日有13个行业主力资金净流入，非银金融行业主 力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨3.99%，全天净流入资金87.55亿元，其次是交通运输行业，日 涨幅为1.79%，净流入资金为25.32亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有18个，电力设备行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金28.94亿元， 其次是电子行业，净流出资金为20.89亿元，净流出资金较多的还有国防军工、机械设备、汽车等行 业。 美容护理行业今日下跌0.39%，全天主力资金净流出3124.46万元，该行业所属的个股共31只，今日上涨 的有7只，涨停的有1只；下跌的有22只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的个股有12只， 净流入资金居首的是青岛金王，今日净流入资金7105.64万元，紧随其后的是珀莱雅、两面针，净流入 资金分别为1788.39万元、7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor sector is expected to experience increased differentiation, with companies facing challenges in maintaining performance growth while ensuring healthy distribution channels. The overall financial performance of the sector is anticipated to remain under pressure in 2025, with solid companies likely to achieve stable growth, while weaker companies may continue to decline [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 13, 2025, the CSI Major Consumer Index (000932) rose by 0.05%, with key stocks such as Proya (603605) increasing by 2.69% and XinNuoWei (300765) by 1.96% [1]. - The Major Consumer ETF (159672) increased by 0.13%, with a latest price of 0.78 yuan and a turnover rate of 4% during the trading session, amounting to 3.36 million yuan [1]. - Over the past year, the average daily trading volume of the Major Consumer ETF was 5.69 million yuan [1]. Group 2: White Liquor Sector Insights - The white liquor industry is expected to show resilience over the long term, benefiting from economic recovery and increased consumption due to stimulus policies [2]. - The differentiation within the white liquor sector is projected to intensify, with companies needing to navigate performance challenges while maintaining healthy distribution channels [1][2]. Group 3: ETF Performance Metrics - The Major Consumer ETF has seen a significant growth of 1.56 million yuan in scale over the past two weeks, ranking in the top fifth among comparable funds [2]. - Since its inception, the Major Consumer ETF has recorded a highest single-month return of 24.35% and an average monthly return of 5.36% [2]. - As of May 12, 2025, the ETF's maximum drawdown this year was 5.57%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.34% [3]. Group 4: Fee Structure and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the Major Consumer ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [4]. - The tracking error for the Major Consumer ETF over the past month was 0.014%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [5]. Group 5: Valuation and Top Holdings - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the CSI Major Consumer Index is 20.15, which is at a historical low, being below 89.64% of the time over the past year [5]. - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Major Consumer Index accounted for 67.16% of the index, including major players like Yili (600887) and Kweichow Moutai (600519) [5].

暗盘资金正涌入这些股票，点击速看>>> 美容护理板块震荡走高，拉芳家化（603630）涨停，水羊股份（300740）、芭薇股份、珀莱雅 （603605）、润本股份（603193）有所拉升。 ...

Core Insights - The performance of domestic beauty companies in China is showing significant divergence, with some achieving remarkable growth while others face declines, indicating a reshaping of the market landscape [1][4][42] Group 1: Company Performance - Proya has become the first domestic beauty company to enter the 10 billion yuan club, with a revenue of 10.778 billion yuan, growing by 21.04% [2] - Other companies like Shangmei and Juzi Biological also reported substantial revenue increases of 62.08% and 57.17% respectively, while Shanghai Jahwa experienced a revenue decline of 13.93% [2][3] - Six beauty companies have revenues exceeding 5 billion yuan, suggesting that this threshold will soon become a significant benchmark for the top 10 domestic beauty brands [1] Group 2: Profitability Trends - Juzi Biological leads in profitability with a profit of 2.062 billion yuan, up 42.06%, while Proya's profit reached 1.552 billion yuan, growing by 30% [3] - In contrast, Shanghai Jahwa reported a loss of 833 million yuan, marking a 266.60% decline, highlighting the stark differences in profitability among companies [3][11] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current market dynamics indicate a shift towards efficacy-driven products, with companies that successfully launched standout products seeing better performance [4][5] - The competition is intensifying, with new entrants emerging and established brands needing to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market trends [7][30] Group 4: R&D and Strategic Focus - Companies are increasingly focusing on R&D, with most reporting a rise in R&D expenditures, indicating a strategic shift towards innovation and efficacy [20][21] - The trend of acquisitions and investments in technology is becoming a key strategy for companies aiming to enhance market share and scale [23][24] Group 5: Emerging Opportunities - The male skincare market is growing rapidly, presenting new opportunities for brands to capture this segment [36] - The aging population is creating demand for products targeting older consumers, which remains largely untapped [39] - As online sales plateau, brands are shifting focus to offline channels, indicating a potential new battleground for market share [40]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The beauty and personal care industry has shown a recovery in Q1, with domestic brands gaining market share, particularly through category and channel breakthroughs. Companies like Luoyuchen and Jiahua have improved margins through organizational adjustments and product innovation [1][4] - The personal care market is experiencing stable growth with a trend towards premiumization. Domestic brands are gaining an advantage in emerging channels like Douyin, with strong revenue growth and consumer recognition of their market share increase [1][5] - Live-streaming e-commerce has provided domestic beauty and personal care brands with opportunities to effectively reach young consumers, enhancing brand awareness and sales channels [1][6] Key Companies and Performance - **Mao Geping**: Achieved significant growth above industry averages, expected to maintain a 30% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next three years due to high-end offline channels and effective online marketing [1][9] - **Ruo Yuchen**: Experienced rapid sales growth through product design and marketing innovation, particularly in the fragrance laundry liquid and health products sectors, with a sales target of 1 billion yuan for 2025 [1][9] - **Baiya and Dengkang**: Both companies have shown good revenue growth, with Baiya leveraging live-streaming e-commerce for expansion and Dengkang focusing on high-end products through targeted marketing on platforms like Douyin [1][10][11] Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The demand for personal care products is stable but has shown a consistent price increase trend, driven by inflation and a shift towards health and natural product preferences among consumers [1][5] - The beauty industry is characterized by a long-term growth potential, with domestic brands continuing to gain market share. Current valuations have not yet returned to pre-2021 levels, indicating potential for valuation improvement [1][14] Future Growth Potential - The sanitary napkin market has reached a certain ceiling in domestic sales, but there is still room for growth in absorbent products like diapers and adult care items, as well as potential expansion into overseas markets [1][17] - The toothpaste market is also large, with opportunities for growth in related categories such as toothbrushes and mouthwash, indicating a robust growth outlook for the oral care sector [1][18] - The cotton soft towel market, as a new product category, has significant market potential due to its higher price point compared to traditional paper products, with companies like Weijian Medical expanding their product lines to enhance brand presence [1][19] Valuation Insights - Most personal care brands have not yet experienced the valuation premiums seen in 2021, with current valuations aligning with growth rates. However, as domestic brands continue to validate their growth, there is potential for increased valuation premiums in the future [1][20][21] - In the Hong Kong market, companies like Shangmei have a valuation of approximately 24 times earnings, while in the A-share market, Pulaoya's valuation is around 20 times, both indicating investment attractiveness [1][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The retail industry is experiencing a slow recovery in social consumption, with overall business pressure on retail enterprises. The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption and suggests focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth segments [4][27] - The report identifies key segments within the retail industry, including traditional retail, gold and jewelry, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics, each with unique dynamics and investment opportunities [4][27] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail industry index rose by 0.88% during the week of May 6 to May 9, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.92% [6][15] - The brand cosmetics sector showed the highest growth, with a weekly increase of 2.89% and a year-to-date increase of 15.91% [18][21] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in segments driven by emotional consumption, including: 1. **Gold and Jewelry**: Emphasizing brands with differentiated products and consumer insights, recommending companies like Laopuhuangjin, Chaohongji, and Zhou Dasheng [7][48] 2. **Offline Retail**: Highlighting companies that are actively transforming and exploring new models, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [7][48] 3. **Cosmetics**: Focusing on domestic brands with strong growth potential, recommending brands like Pola, Shangmei, and Juzi Biological [7][49] 4. **Medical Aesthetics**: Suggesting attention to differentiated product manufacturers and leading medical aesthetic institutions, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [7][49] Segment Analysis - **Traditional Retail**: The report notes that offline retail must leverage its strengths in customer service and emotional satisfaction to attract consumers back from online channels [4][28] - **Gold and Jewelry**: The industry is shifting from supply-driven to demand-driven, with emotional consumption becoming a key factor. High-end and fashionable gold segments are emerging as significant opportunities [4][36] - **Cosmetics**: The industry is stable in the short term, with a long-term trend favoring domestic brands. Emotional consumption is spreading across various cosmetic categories [4][41] - **Medical Aesthetics**: The industry is experiencing accelerated differentiation, with high-end products showing resilience due to their safety and scarcity [4][44]

Market Performance - The market rebounded last week, with the China Securities Index rising by 1.99% to 1650.47 points [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.92%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.29%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.27% [2] Strong Stock Performances - Notable strong performers included: - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) up by 13.55% - Shanghai Jahwa (600315) up by 9.31% - AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600760) up by 8.25% - CATL (300750) up by 7.24% - Beitaini (300957) up by 6.01% [2] - Other stocks such as Hisense Home Appliances (000921), EVE Energy (300014), and Stone Technology saw gains exceeding 5% [2] Year-to-Date Stock Performance - Since the beginning of 2025, Shanghai Jahwa has surged by 51.39%, leading the gains [3] - Marumi Bio (603983) follows with a 50.59% increase, while Xintai (002294) and Anji Technology have both risen over 30% [3] Market Outlook - Positive factors are emerging as the market stabilizes, with expectations for gradual recovery in investor sentiment and stock performance [4] - The domestic economy is on a steady recovery path, supported by ongoing policy efforts [4] - The current A-share market is viewed as being in a high cost-performance zone, indicating medium to long-term investment value [4] - However, short-term market movements may remain volatile unless strong driving factors emerge [4]

Group 1: Core Insights - The retail industry is experiencing a slow recovery in social consumption, with overall business pressure on retail enterprises [27][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption, suggesting that companies should focus on enhancing consumer service experiences and emotional satisfaction to drive positive accumulation [28][32] - The investment strategy highlights four main themes: gold and jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics, each with specific recommendations for companies to watch [4][7][49] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Traditional retail is facing challenges as online traffic growth approaches its peak, and issues like e-commerce tax audits arise, making offline experiences more valuable [4][28] - The gold and jewelry sector is shifting from supply-driven to demand-driven, with emotional needs like self-appreciation and national pride becoming significant [4][36] - The cosmetics industry is witnessing a rise in domestic brands, with emotional consumption trends spreading to various segments, including functional skincare and home fragrances [41][49] Group 3: Company Recommendations - For gold and jewelry, companies like Lao Pu Gold, Chao Hong Ji, and Zhou Da Sheng are recommended for their differentiated product offerings and consumer insights [7][48] - In offline retail, companies such as Yonghui Supermarket and Ai Ying Shi are highlighted for their proactive transformation and exploration of new business models [7][48] - In the cosmetics sector, brands like Pechoin, Mao Ge Ping, and Juzi Biological are noted for their strong performance and ability to adapt to market trends [7][49] Group 4: Market Performance - The retail industry index rose by 0.88% in the week of May 6-9, 2025, but has decreased by 5.81% since the beginning of the year, underperforming the broader market [6][15] - The brand cosmetics sector showed the highest growth, with a weekly increase of 2.89% and a year-to-date increase of 15.91% [18][21] - Individual stocks such as Huazhi Wine and New Xunda saw significant weekly gains of 13.4% and 12.2%, respectively [24][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the cosmetics and medical beauty sector, with specific recommendations for various companies based on their market positions and growth potential [5][12][17]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown weaker performance compared to the market, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index rising by 1.7% from April 30 to May 9, 2025, which is lower than the Shenwan A Index by 0.6 percentage points [5][6]. - The "Jumeili Conference" held in Shanghai highlighted the industry's development direction amidst a challenging environment, emphasizing the importance of technology-driven beauty, refined operations, and AI assistance [5][12]. - Domestic brands are gaining traction, while international brands are also experiencing growth, with Estee Lauder reporting a return to positive growth in key brands in China during Q1 2025 [5][12][28]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector's performance has been below market expectations, with the Shenwan Cosmetics Index increasing by 2.8%, outperforming the Shenwan A Index by 0.5 percentage points [5][6]. - The report notes a competitive landscape where domestic brands are aggressively entering the market, prompting international brands to rebound [5][12]. Company Analysis - Shanghai Jahwa's Q1 2025 results showed a revenue of 1.704 billion yuan, down 10.59% year-on-year, with a net profit of 217 million yuan, down 15.25% [5][13]. - Estee Lauder's Q3 2025 results indicated a net sales figure of 3.55 billion USD (approximately 25.8 billion yuan), a 10% decline year-on-year, but with a notable increase in gross margin [5][28]. - The report highlights the employee stock ownership plan at Shanghai Jahwa, aimed at binding key personnel and setting profit recovery targets for 2025 [5][17]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the retail sales of cosmetics in Q1 2025 reached 114.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [22][26]. - The domestic skincare market is projected to continue growing, with local brands capturing a significant market share, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards domestic products [36][38]. E-commerce Insights - The report provides data on the performance of domestic brands on e-commerce platforms, with notable growth in GMV for brands like Proya and Marubi [20][19]. - The overall e-commerce landscape for cosmetics is evolving, with brands leveraging social media platforms to enhance visibility and sales [5][12].

2025.05. 11 本文字数：2500，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 曹璐 美国"对等关税"政策发酵，全球贸易格局继续调整，成为资本市场近期关注的焦点。Wind数据显 示，截至5月9日，近一个月来机构调研热度飙升，2210家上市公司迎来3068次调研，以区间18个交 易日计算，平均每天有超过170次调研。 这轮调研热潮中，电子、机械设备、医药生物等三大板块成为机构重点关注的领域。立讯精密 （002475.SZ）、水晶光电（002273.SZ）等公司吸引超300家机构扎堆调研。此外，机构投资者在关 注企业财报业绩的同时，也重点聚焦了关税冲击下的海外布局、成本转嫁策略等关键问题。 "财报季后和增量政策空窗期，仍建议关注具有产业进展的科技方向。"金鹰基金权益研究部金达莱对 第一财经表示，AI应用、人形机器人、智能驾驶等新质生产力方向近期已有所反弹，随着财报落 地，AI大模型产业进展或带动其再度有所表现，日历效应下利于节后资金回流和科技成长风格的估 值修复。 近一个月3068次调研 针对关税影响问题，该公司在调研中表示，目前市场上更多的是情绪上的恐慌，但从企业实际经营的 角度来看，大多数出口美国的终端产 ...