Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector is experiencing a downturn, with Yanghe Co. seeing significant declines in stock prices and a bleak profit forecast for 2025, indicating a challenging environment for the industry [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Yanghe Co. has forecasted a net profit decline of 62.18%-68.30% for 2025, estimating a loss of 1.451 billion to 1.859 billion yuan in Q4 2025 [1]. - The company has also retracted its previous commitment to a minimum 7 billion yuan dividend [1]. - Other major liquor companies like Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu have also seen stock price declines, while Kweichow Moutai has shown slight gains [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The consumption ETF has seen a near 2% drop, with a transaction volume of 400 million yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2]. - The liquor sector is in a phase of inventory reduction and price stabilization, with companies adjusting their strategies in response to external pressures [3][6]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Environment - New policies aimed at boosting consumer spending are expected to be introduced, including measures to expand inbound consumption and promote the replacement of durable goods [1]. - The overall market sentiment is improving, with expectations that the worst period for liquor sales is over, aided by easing consumption restrictions [6]. Group 4: Investment Insights - The liquor sector is currently characterized by low expectations, low valuations, and low public fund holdings, presenting a potential buying opportunity [7]. - High dividend yields from leading liquor companies are expected to attract investors, as they commit to returning at least 100% of their net profits as dividends [7]. - Historical data suggests that high-end liquor stocks like Moutai and Wuliangye may lead the recovery in the sector, similar to past cycles [8].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a mixed trend in retail prices for its top ten products, with an overall slight decline in total price [1][4] - The market shows signs of stabilization, with some products increasing in price while others decrease [1][4] Price Movements - The total retail price for a package of the top ten liquor products is 8886 yuan, down 3 yuan from the previous day [1] - Four products saw price increases, while five experienced declines, with one remaining stable [1] - The leading price increase was for Qinghua Lang, which rose by 14 yuan per bottle, marking five consecutive days of price growth [1][3] - Other notable increases include Gujing Gonggu 20 and Jingpin Moutai, which rose by 7 yuan and 4 yuan per bottle, respectively [1][2] - On the decline side, Wuliangye dropped by 9 yuan, and Guojiao 1573 fell by 8 yuan per bottle [1][2] Market Context - The data is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, aiming to provide an objective and traceable overview of the liquor market prices [4] - The introduction of new sales channels for Moutai products has begun to influence market prices, particularly for the Flying Moutai and Premium Moutai [4] - The liquor sector is currently navigating a challenging period, with institutional holdings at historical lows, yet there are signs of potential recovery as Moutai's sales exceed expectations [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage sector is "Buy" for key companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [44]. Core Insights - The report indicates a continued decline in the holdings of the food and beverage sector within mutual funds, with the top 20 holdings' market value as a percentage of total fund equity investments decreasing to 16.31% in Q4 2025, down 0.47 percentage points from Q3 2025 [5][21]. - Kweichow Moutai's market value as a percentage of total fund equity investments is 1.31%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points from the previous quarter, while Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao also saw declines [9][10]. - The food and beverage sector's weight in the total A-share market capitalization has decreased to 4.04%, down 0.66 percentage points [25]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q4 2025, the number of funds holding Kweichow Moutai remained stable at 1,048, while Wuliangye saw a decrease of 109 funds to 175, and Luzhou Laojiao's holdings dropped by 18 to 128 [21]. - The concentration of holdings in the food and beverage sector is low, with only one company (Kweichow Moutai) in the top 20 holdings [7][8]. Sector Allocation - The food and beverage sector's heavy stock holdings accounted for 6.10% of total fund equity investments, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points from the previous quarter [25]. - The white liquor sector's heavy stock holdings accounted for 5.13%, also down 0.4 percentage points, indicating a position close to levels seen in Q1 2010 [25][39]. Individual Stock Performance - The report highlights that Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao are currently below their average allocation levels since 2009, indicating potential undervaluation [9][10]. - The report notes that the allocation coefficient for the white liquor sector is 1.92, which is below the historical average of 2.11, suggesting a potential for recovery [25][39]. Northbound Capital Changes - In Q4 2025, the northbound capital holdings for major food and beverage stocks showed a mixed trend, with Shuanghui Development seeing an increase of 0.13 percentage points, while Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye experienced declines of 0.48 and 0.58 percentage points, respectively [44][45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector continues to see a decline in holdings, with a shift towards mass-market products. The proportion of active equity funds in the food and beverage sector decreased to 4.04% in Q4 2025, down from 4.18% in Q3 2025, reflecting a 0.14 percentage point decline [9][15] - The report highlights a continued reduction in allocations to alcoholic beverages, while holdings in mass-market products have shown signs of recovery. The proportion of holdings in white liquor decreased by 0.29 percentage points to 2.92% in Q4 2025 [14][17] - Major consumer funds have reduced their allocations to alcoholic beverages, with a notable decrease of 2.22 percentage points in white liquor holdings, while overall food and beverage allocations have increased [17][21] Summary by Sections 1. Food and Beverage Holdings Continue to Decline, Structure Shifts Towards Mass-Market Products - As of Q4 2025, the total scale of active equity fund heavy holdings is approximately 19.4 trillion yuan, with food and beverage holdings at 78.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.01% decline [9][10] - The decline in alcoholic beverage holdings is evident, with white liquor allocations decreasing to 2.92% and beer and pre-mixed drinks also seeing slight reductions [14][15] 2. Holdings Become More Diversified, Capturing Marginal Recovery Themes - The number of heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector has become more diversified, with only Kweichow Moutai remaining in the top 20 heavy holdings [24] - The report notes that the top five stocks with the largest increase in heavy holdings include Baba Foods, Yingjia Gongjiu, Youran Dairy, Ximai Foods, and Modern Animal Husbandry [28][29] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests five key directions for investment: focusing on functional health foods, improving supply chains and product/channel resonance in leading snack companies, expanding quality retail formats, investing in long-lifecycle beverage leaders, and tracking sectors with potential recovery such as dairy and large-scale dining [10][29]

Group 1: Brand Collaborations and Marketing Strategies - Tuo Pai Jiu has announced celebrity endorsements with Liu Xiaoqing and Yang Yuguang, aiming to enhance brand visibility through live streaming on Douyin [1] - The trend of celebrity endorsements in the liquor industry is increasing, with brands like Shui Jing Fang and Gu Xiao Jiu also engaging well-known figures to boost sales and brand image [3][5] - The shift in marketing strategy reflects a move towards more consumer-friendly approaches, with brands seeking to connect with younger audiences through relatable celebrities [6][8] Group 2: Industry Performance and Trends - The white liquor production in China has seen a significant decline, with a 19% drop in December 2025 compared to the previous year, marking the ninth consecutive year of decline [9][11] - The total production for 2025 was reported at 354.9 million liters, a cumulative decrease of 12.1% [9][11] - The changing landscape of the liquor market is evident, with a notable increase in the import of white spirits, particularly vodka and tequila, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [13] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Yanghe Co. has projected a significant decline in profits for 2025, estimating earnings between 2.116 billion to 2.524 billion yuan, a decrease of 62% to 68% year-on-year [28] - The company attributes this downturn to intensified competition and reduced market demand, particularly affecting mid-range and high-end products [28] - Yanghe has also announced a new cash dividend policy, committing to distribute at least 100% of the net profit to shareholders from 2025 to 2027 [29]

Group 1 - The Low Volatility Dividend Index (H30269.CSI) selects 50 securities with good liquidity, continuous dividends, moderate payout ratios, positive growth in dividends per share, high dividend yields, and low volatility, with a dividend yield of 4.91% as of January 23 [1] - The Low Volatility Dividend ETF (华夏 159547) is the ETF with the lowest comprehensive fee tracking this index, with quarterly evaluations for dividends [1] - The Quality Dividend Index (931468.CSI) selects 50 listed companies with continuous cash dividends, high payout ratios, and strong profitability, with a dividend yield of 3.06% as of January 23 [1] Group 2 - Luzhou Laojiao announced a cash dividend of 1.358 yuan per share (tax included), with the record date on January 29, 2026, and the ex-dividend date on January 30, 2026 [1] - Tianyuan Intelligent announced a cash dividend of 0.02 yuan per share (tax included), with the record date on January 29, 2026, and the ex-dividend date on January 30, 2026 [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened higher but experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4141.01 points, a slight increase of 0.12% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.74%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.86% [1] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 3756 stocks declined, while 1606 stocks rose, with 50 stocks hitting the daily limit up [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 347.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance Precious Metals - The precious metals sector saw significant gains, with stocks such as Hunan Gold (002155) hitting the daily limit up, and others like Jin Hui Shares (603132) and Zhao Jin Gold (000506) also achieving 10% limit up [3][5] - The price of spot gold surpassed $5000 per ounce for the first time, increasing by over 1%, while spot silver rose by over 5% [5] Oil and Gas - The oil and gas sector experienced a rally, with major companies like China Petroleum and China Oil & Gas seeing increases of over 4% [6] - International oil prices surged, with WTI and ICE crude oil both rising by over 3% due to escalating geopolitical tensions [6] Financial Sector - The financial sector showed upward movement, with securities stocks rising, and insurance and banking stocks also performing well [8] - Notable gains were seen in stocks like Caitong Securities (601108) and Xingye Securities, both increasing by over 4% [9] Alcoholic Beverages - The liquor sector faced a downturn, with a decline of over 1%, particularly affected by a significant drop in Yanghe Shares (002304), which fell by over 8% [13] - Yanghe Shares projected a net profit decline of 62.18% to 68.30% for the fiscal year 2025, indicating potential financial distress [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor industry, indicating a bottoming out and potential for a rebound during the Spring Festival, with a focus on key stocks such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu [5][16]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the safety margin for liquor companies is derived more from brand strength, market share, and sales momentum rather than just dividend yields, which are expected to be adjusted downwards for the years 2025-2026 [1][16]. - Recent sales tracking shows that Moutai's sales and pricing are better than market expectations, with a slight increase in overall channel sales volume and stable pricing [1][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cash flow and dividend planning, with companies like Yanghe planning to maintain dividends at no less than 100% of their net profit for 2025-2027 [2][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Core Company Tracking - Yanghe's net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 2.12 billion and 2.52 billion yuan, a decline of 62.2%-68.3% year-on-year, with a focus on inventory reduction and price stabilization [2][11]. - Yanjing Beer expects a net profit of 1.58 billion to 1.74 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 50.0%-65.0%, with plans to launch a high-end product in 2026 [3][12]. - Yihai International anticipates low single-digit growth in H2 2025, driven by improved gross margins and a return of key personnel, which is expected to enhance business performance [4][13]. - IFBH is expected to face pressure in H2 2025, but with potential recovery in 2026 as supply issues are resolved [4][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a bottom-up approach to investing in liquor stocks, with a focus on key players and potential rebounds in sales, particularly in the context of the upcoming Spring Festival [5][16]. - It identifies four main lines for consumer goods: restaurant chains, dairy products, valuation-matched companies, and bottom-up recovery plays [5][17]. Industry Overview - The report notes that the food and beverage industry has a total market capitalization of 4,560.2 billion yuan, with 142 listed companies [5]. - The industry index shows a 1-month performance of 0.6%, a 6-month performance of 4.4%, and a 12-month performance of 17.7% [7].

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao, a company with a market value of over 100 billion, is set to implement a mid-term dividend plan totaling approximately 2 billion yuan (including tax), highlighting its financial stability and commitment to shareholder returns amidst industry challenges [2][4]. Group 1: Dividend Plans - The mid-term dividend plan involves a cash distribution of 13.58 yuan per 10 shares, based on a total share capital of 1.472 billion shares, with a total payout of around 2 billion yuan [2][4]. - Luzhou Laojiao's shareholder return plan states that annual dividends will not be less than 8.5 billion yuan for the years 2024-2026, with a minimum payout ratio of 65%, 70%, and 75% of net profit for those years respectively [4][10]. - In 2024, the company plans to distribute a total of approximately 8.759 billion yuan in dividends, exceeding the minimum target outlined in its shareholder return plan [4][10]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Luzhou Laojiao reported revenues of 23.127 billion yuan and a net profit of 10.762 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 4.84% and 7.17% respectively [6]. - The overall white liquor market is experiencing pressure, with major companies like Luzhou Laojiao facing declining performance due to macroeconomic factors and high inventory levels [6][11]. Group 3: Industry Context - Other leading companies in the white liquor sector, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, are also implementing mid-term dividend plans, indicating a trend among top firms to ensure shareholder returns despite market challenges [8][9]. - Kweichow Moutai's mid-term dividend for 2025 is set at 300.01 billion yuan, while Wuliangye plans to distribute 100.07 billion yuan, showcasing the competitive landscape in dividend payouts among leading brands [8][9].

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the performance and strategic adjustments of funds managed by Zhang Kun of E Fund, highlighting the significant differentiation in fund performance and his outlook on domestic consumption and investment opportunities [1][2][3] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, Zhang Kun's managed fund size decreased to 48.3 billion yuan, with a quarterly reduction exceeding 8 billion yuan [2][3] - The largest fund, E Fund Blue Chip Selection Mixed Fund (005827.OF), experienced a nearly 9% loss in Q4, underperforming its benchmark by over 6%, while the E Fund Asia Select Stock Fund (118001.OF) achieved a 4.5% positive return, outperforming its benchmark by over 2% and recording a nearly 42% increase for the entire year [2][3][4] Group 3 - Zhang Kun continued to reduce holdings in the liquor sector, albeit at a slower pace compared to Q3 2025, maintaining a near 10% position in leading liquor stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [4][5][6] - Significant reductions were also noted in pharmaceutical and media stocks, with JD Health seeing a cut of about half in holdings, alongside Tencent Holdings and Focus Media [5][6][7] Group 4 - In overseas investments, Samsung Electronics replaced Tencent Holdings as the top holding in the E Fund Asia Select, with Zhang Kun opting to take profits as stock prices surged [6][7][8] Group 5 - Zhang Kun expressed a strong belief in the future of domestic consumption, arguing that current consumer weakness is not a permanent state and will improve, supported by government goals for income growth and stabilization of housing prices [8][9][10] - He emphasized that a robust domestic consumption market is crucial for technological innovation, suggesting that increased consumer spending will benefit domestic AI companies and accelerate their development [10][11][12] - Zhang Kun remains optimistic about the long-term potential of Chinese consumption and economic growth, viewing current market valuations of quality companies as attractive for long-term investors [10][11][12]