每经记者｜温梦华 每经编辑｜彭水萍 在刚刚举行的茅台股东大会上，A股"股王"茅台将2025年的营收KPI定为增长9%。这一数字，既在意料之中，又在意料之外。当前整个行业面临诸多困局和 挑战，但茅台还是在2024年交出了一份营收、净利润增速均超15%的"韧性答卷"。 一直以来，大多数白酒股都会在年报中披露下一年的经营"小目标"。而在过去几年，两位数增长基本成为年报"标配"。如今，变化正在悄然发生。 《每日经济新闻·将进酒》记者梳理发现，6家头部上市白酒企业中，只有茅台明确提出了2025年营收增长目标，其余5家企业在谈及新一年经营计划的时候 不约而同地"不提目标"，而使用"与宏观经济指标保持一致""继续保持稳健增长态势"等表述。 不仅头部酒企如此，绝大多数的其他白酒企业也在这个问题上选择"失声"。 产业没有永远的上行！整个白酒行业增速明显放缓之下，一众酒企纷纷主动选择了降速求稳的稳健策略。不再执着于业绩增长KPI目标，是否意味着中国白 酒行业追求两位数增长的"高速时代"正式迈入稳中求进的"稳健时代"？ 2024年白酒营收净利增速放缓 多家头部酒企均未完成经营KPI 身处白酒产业深度调整期，2024年白酒酒企业绩增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is currently undergoing a period of adjustment, influenced by changes in consumer behavior and economic conditions, leading to a focus on inventory reduction and product innovation among major liquor companies [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The liquor industry is in a "three-period overlap" phase, experiencing deep adjustments due to macroeconomic cycles, industry cycles, and individual company/product cycles [2]. - Major liquor companies are facing slowed or declining performance growth, with Wuliangye's 2024 revenue reaching 89.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% [2]. - Luzhou Laojiao's 2024 revenue and net profit grew by 3.19% and 1.71% respectively, while other companies like Shede Liquor reported significant declines in performance [2]. Group 2: Inventory Management - Major liquor companies have improved inventory levels after implementing strict supply control measures, with Wuliangye reporting low social inventory levels for its eighth-generation product [1][4]. - Wuliangye's sales performance has remained stable, with online sales increasing by 30% year-on-year, and overall market prices continuing to rise [4]. - Yanghe Co. emphasized the importance of inventory reduction as a key focus moving forward, while Luzhou Laojiao reported that its channel inventory is currently manageable [5]. Group 3: Strategic Goals - Guizhou Moutai has set a revenue growth target of 9% for 2025, reflecting a more cautious approach compared to previous years [3]. - Wuliangye aims to align its revenue growth with macroeconomic indicators for 2025, moving away from previous aggressive growth targets [3]. - Luzhou Laojiao's 2025 operational plan focuses on steady progress rather than aggressive growth, indicating a shift in strategy [3]. Group 4: Consumer Trends - The industry is witnessing a shift towards younger consumers and lower-alcohol products, with Luzhou Laojiao noting that nearly 50% of its revenue now comes from lower-alcohol products [6]. - Luzhou Laojiao plans to enhance the quality of its lower-alcohol products and target the "Z generation" through innovative marketing strategies [6]. - Wuliangye is also focusing on the younger consumer market, planning to accelerate the development and promotion of its lower-alcohol products [7].

看了一圈雪球，评论都很主观和没有逻辑，尤其是对于"年轻人不喝酒"这个话题 先说下我的观点，白酒的三大消费群: 1. 政府消费，现在禁酒 2. 商务消费，整体经营困难，带着商务消费下降 3. 居民消费，年轻人接不上力 所以不看好，白酒会持续性衰退，除非1和2有转机，还有一个想象空间是出口。 p.s. 现在对白酒的一些论调，很像当时房价下跌 三四线城市房价跌，一二线城市不会受影响 白酒消费整体减弱，大家都去好酒喝高端酒 学区房还是能保持住。 ymz1996 很多年前，我4元多买了长城汽车，然后看到最多的讨论就是国内汽车已经饱和了，道路无法 承受，然后就卖出了，结果....... 现在这么多年过去了，也没人说汽车饱和，道路拥挤了。 nvidia 这个东西涨上天也和我去无关。因为我不喝 身边也没人喝。巴菲特说不懂不做。 谁不想三五好友，小酌微熏，相谈甚欢呢。 铁骨素心 一二看看餐饮就知道了，高端餐饮成片的倒闭，中低端餐饮同样举步维艰 三的话更确定，第一是年轻人玩法不一样了，第二是年轻人哪来的钱消费高端白酒？ ecowmy 一瓶茅台1499要抢，里面有什么吃了会爽翻天的东西么？除了送礼面子工程 抢购撸羊毛 金 融属性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is currently facing challenges such as weak sales, price inversion, and high inventory levels, exacerbated by a new alcohol ban, leading to a significant drop in stock prices for liquor companies [1][2] Group 1: Industry Overview - The total revenue of 20 listed liquor companies for 2024 is projected to be 439 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.27%, while net profit is expected to reach 166.63 billion yuan, up 7.40% [1] - The top three companies (Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu) have a market share exceeding 65.4%, with profit concentration reaching 73.92% [1][3] - Moutai's revenue and profit growth for 2024 are both expected to exceed 15%, while Wuliangye's growth has dropped to single digits, marking its lowest level since 2017 [1][3] Group 2: Company Performance - Moutai's revenue for 2024 is projected at 174.14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.66%, and net profit of 86.23 billion yuan, up 15.38% [3] - Shanxi Fenjiu is expected to achieve a revenue of 36 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 12.79%, and a net profit of 12.24 billion yuan, up 17.29% [3][10] - Gujing Gongjiu's net profit growth is notable at 20.22%, amidst a backdrop of declining performance from many other companies [2][10] Group 3: Financial Metrics - The total operating cash flow for listed liquor companies is projected to be 173.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.64%, driven mainly by leading companies like Moutai [6] - Moutai's cash flow growth rate is particularly high at 38.85%, attributed to increased sales and improved trust from distributors [6] - Contract liabilities for liquor companies totaled 56.08 billion yuan at the end of 2024, with Moutai's liabilities decreasing by 32.09% to 9.59 billion yuan, marking a significant shift in its financial strategy [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The liquor market is experiencing a shift, with Moutai leveraging various sales strategies to maintain its market position, despite facing challenges in balancing volume and price [7][8] - The competition landscape is evolving, with companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao also showing some positive financial indicators, despite overall industry challenges [9][10] - The rise of instant retail and e-commerce is reshaping the market, providing opportunities for companies to adapt and capture more daily liquor consumption [12]

业绩"急刹" ，泸州老窖迎10年最冷财报 王琳 在营收和净利连续多年保持高增长之后 ， 2024 年 ， 泸州老窖的业绩突然踩了急刹车 。 日前 ， 泸州老窖发布 2024 年度报告显示 ， 2024 年，公司实现营业收入 311.96 亿元，同比增长 3.19% ， 实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 134.73 亿元，同比增长 1.71% 。 泸州老窖 未完成董事会于年初提出的 "实现营业收入同比增长不低于 15% "的目标，这也是 近几 年首次未完成营收目标。 不仅如此 ， 2024 年 ， 泸州老窖的收入和净利 双双创下 2015 年以来最 低增速 。 进入 2025 年 ， 泸州老窖依然保持低增速 。 数据显示 ， 今年一季度，公司实现营收 93.52 亿 元，同比增长 1.78% ， 实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 45.9 3 亿元，同比增长 0. 41 % 。 业绩增速创 10 年新低 根据公开资料 ， 自 1991 年有数据统计以来，泸州老窖营业收入一直位列上市白酒企业的 " 前三 甲 " ，但 到了 2010 年，泸州老窖被洋河股份反超，跌出前三。 2015 年 6 月刘淼上任泸州老窖董事长 ...

这个世界没有傻瓜，聪明的人都在雪球。你觉得人家傻是因为没看懂人家的思路，算小账算大账 的区别。这么说吧，但凡我当初有5倍10倍想法，有只要上涨不要回撤的想法，老窖我拿不到现 在，当时想的就是高端2万吨逻辑达到再卖。当然现在2万吨实现了也不卖，拿来养鸡孵蛋更香。 巴菲特的投资精髓是养鸡孵蛋，在于浮存金优化配置。就说其实投资收益是分两部分的：股息+股 息再投。就像长电失去成长性后，我在长电身上的收益，除了长电每年分红外，还有分红配置到 一家高成长企业带来的现金流收益。这部分的投资价值更高。 当我们评估一家企业价值时，价值等于企业生命周期所有自由现金流折现。假定这个数值是A， 那么股价高于A就是高估，低于A就是低估。现实中会出现这样一种情况，按照十年收益比是高 估，但是跟企业生命周期价值比低估。按照前者要卖出，按照后者要持有，坐电梯由此而来。 优秀企业是凤毛麟角的，伟大企业的长处在于给人提供充足的容错空间，你在一辆高速列车上， 你倒着跑也在前进。换来换去会出现拔掉鲜花浇灌杂草风险，持有企业基本面越来越差，投资成 功率越来越低。毕竟生意本身才是那个1，其余都是后面的0。 投资除了资金显性成本外，还有心力隐性成本。人不 ...

Group 1: Beer Industry Developments - Major beer companies are reducing workforce to control costs amid increasing competition in the industry [1][3] - Budweiser APAC reduced its workforce from approximately 25,000 in 2023 to over 21,000 in 2024, a decrease of about 4,000 employees or 16% [3] - Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer also reported reductions of over 1,000 employees each, while Qingdao Beer cut more than 800 positions [3] Group 2: Wine Industry Events - The 5th China (Ningxia) International Wine Culture and Tourism Expo will be held from June 9 to 12, showcasing over 200 domestic and international wineries [5] - The expo will feature various activities, including a national wine industry skills competition and a cultural exhibition [5] Group 3: Labor Issues in Wine Sector - Workers at LVMH's champagne house went on strike on May 13, protesting salary and job security issues [7] - The wine and spirits division of LVMH is facing financial pressure, with a reported loss of €1.5 billion in 2024, contrasting with a cash flow of €1 billion in 2019 [7] Group 4: Leadership Changes - Treasury Wine Estates appointed Sam Fischer as the new CEO, with a compensation package including a fixed salary of AUD 1.73 million and a signing bonus of AUD 4 million [10][11] Group 5: Company Responses and Strategies - Luzhou Laojiao addressed concerns about halting orders, stating that it is maintaining normal supply channels and preparing for the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival [12][13] - Luzhou Laojiao plans to launch innovative products targeting younger consumers, including a collaboration with the sci-fi series "The Three-Body Problem" [12] Group 6: Share Buybacks and Financial Confidence - Kweichow Moutai announced a share buyback of 624,600 shares for a total of CNY 10.11 billion, completing two-thirds of its buyback plan [15] - The company plans to spend between CNY 3 billion and CNY 6 billion on share repurchases within the next 12 months [15] Group 7: Ningxia Wine Export Growth - Ningxia's wine exports reached CNY 13.75 million in 2024, supported by the development of 30 well-known wine import and export enterprises [17] - The brand value of Ningxia's Helan Mountain wine exceeded CNY 34 billion, ranking 8th in the regional brand value list [17]

证券代码：000568 证券简称：泸州老窖 泸州老窖股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-5-16 | 投资者关系活动 | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 类别 | | | | □媒体采访 ★业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他 股东大会交流 | | 参与单位名称及 | 通过互动易参加本次业绩说明会的投资者 | | 人员姓名 | | | 2025 时间 | 年 5 月 16 日 15:00-17:00 | | | 深圳证券交易所"互动易平台"http://irm.cninfo.com.cn | | 地点 | "云访谈"栏目 | | 上市公司接待人 | 董事长刘淼，独立董事陈有安、吕先锫、李国旺、李良琛，财 | | 员姓名 | 务总监谢红，副总经理、董事会秘书李勇 | | | 1. 当前白酒行业面对较大挑战，请问行业什么时候能够复苏？ | | | 答：尊敬的投资者，短期来看，行业仍处于调整期，本轮调整主 | | | 要受消费环境影响导致。我国产业体系完整、配套实力雄厚，经济发 | | | 展的韧性足、能力强，国 ...

简历显示，侯昊先生:经济学硕士,CFA(Chartered Financial Analyst特许金融分析师)、FRM(Financial Risk Manager金融风险管理师),2009年加入招商基金管理有 限公司,曾任风险管理部高级风控经理、部门负责人,负责投资风险管理、业绩归因、金融工程研究等工作;2011年加入量化投资部,在量化投资部的主要研究方 向是股指期货/商品期货交易策略和算法、结构化产品设计、数量化选股、微观结构等,现任招商基金量化投资部投资经理。2009年7月加入招商基金管理有 限公司,曾任风险管理部风控经理,量化投资部助理投资经理、投资经理,现任量化投资部副总监兼招商央视财经50指数证券投资基金基金经理(管理时间:2017 年9月5日至今)、招商中证大宗商品股票指数证券投资基金(LOF)基金经理(管理时间:2017年9月5日至今)、招商中证银行指数证券投资基金基金经理(管理时 间:2021年1月1日至今)、招商深证100指数证券投资基金基金经理(管理时间:2017年9月5日至今)、招商中证煤炭等权指数证券投资基金基金经理(管理时 间:2021年1月1日至今)、招商中证白酒指数证券投资基金 ...

Group 1: Industry Insights - The liquor industry is facing challenges, with companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Zhangyu expressing concerns about market conditions and sales performance [1][15] - Qingdao Beer is considering the integration of quality assets to enhance its market position, indicating a strategic approach to growth [13] - The recent regulations on public reception by government agencies may impact the consumption of alcoholic beverages in official settings [2] Group 2: Company Developments - Kweichow Moutai has completed 62.46 million shares repurchase, amounting to 10.11 billion yuan, which is two-thirds of its planned buyback [3] - Yanjing Beer is expanding into the non-alcoholic beverage market, launching a new soda brand to meet consumer demand and leverage synergies with its beer business [10][11] - Zhangyu's management remains cautiously optimistic about the long-term prospects of the domestic wine market despite current challenges [15][16] Group 3: Management Changes - Tim Ford is stepping down as CEO of Treasury Wine Estates, with Sam Fischer set to take over, bringing experience from both fast-moving consumer goods and the beverage industry [8] - Chen Qi, Vice Chairman of Shanghai Guijiu, has resigned due to personal reasons, continuing to serve as a board member [9]