这个世界没有傻瓜，聪明的人都在雪球。你觉得人家傻是因为没看懂人家的思路，算小账算大账 的区别。这么说吧，但凡我当初有5倍10倍想法，有只要上涨不要回撤的想法，老窖我拿不到现 在，当时想的就是高端2万吨逻辑达到再卖。当然现在2万吨实现了也不卖，拿来养鸡孵蛋更香。 巴菲特的投资精髓是养鸡孵蛋，在于浮存金优化配置。就说其实投资收益是分两部分的：股息+股 息再投。就像长电失去成长性后，我在长电身上的收益，除了长电每年分红外，还有分红配置到 一家高成长企业带来的现金流收益。这部分的投资价值更高。 当我们评估一家企业价值时，价值等于企业生命周期所有自由现金流折现。假定这个数值是A， 那么股价高于A就是高估，低于A就是低估。现实中会出现这样一种情况，按照十年收益比是高 估，但是跟企业生命周期价值比低估。按照前者要卖出，按照后者要持有，坐电梯由此而来。 优秀企业是凤毛麟角的，伟大企业的长处在于给人提供充足的容错空间，你在一辆高速列车上， 你倒着跑也在前进。换来换去会出现拔掉鲜花浇灌杂草风险，持有企业基本面越来越差，投资成 功率越来越低。毕竟生意本身才是那个1，其余都是后面的0。 投资除了资金显性成本外，还有心力隐性成本。人不 ...

Group 1: Beer Industry Developments - Major beer companies are reducing workforce to control costs amid increasing competition in the industry [1][3] - Budweiser APAC reduced its workforce from approximately 25,000 in 2023 to over 21,000 in 2024, a decrease of about 4,000 employees or 16% [3] - Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer also reported reductions of over 1,000 employees each, while Qingdao Beer cut more than 800 positions [3] Group 2: Wine Industry Events - The 5th China (Ningxia) International Wine Culture and Tourism Expo will be held from June 9 to 12, showcasing over 200 domestic and international wineries [5] - The expo will feature various activities, including a national wine industry skills competition and a cultural exhibition [5] Group 3: Labor Issues in Wine Sector - Workers at LVMH's champagne house went on strike on May 13, protesting salary and job security issues [7] - The wine and spirits division of LVMH is facing financial pressure, with a reported loss of €1.5 billion in 2024, contrasting with a cash flow of €1 billion in 2019 [7] Group 4: Leadership Changes - Treasury Wine Estates appointed Sam Fischer as the new CEO, with a compensation package including a fixed salary of AUD 1.73 million and a signing bonus of AUD 4 million [10][11] Group 5: Company Responses and Strategies - Luzhou Laojiao addressed concerns about halting orders, stating that it is maintaining normal supply channels and preparing for the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival [12][13] - Luzhou Laojiao plans to launch innovative products targeting younger consumers, including a collaboration with the sci-fi series "The Three-Body Problem" [12] Group 6: Share Buybacks and Financial Confidence - Kweichow Moutai announced a share buyback of 624,600 shares for a total of CNY 10.11 billion, completing two-thirds of its buyback plan [15] - The company plans to spend between CNY 3 billion and CNY 6 billion on share repurchases within the next 12 months [15] Group 7: Ningxia Wine Export Growth - Ningxia's wine exports reached CNY 13.75 million in 2024, supported by the development of 30 well-known wine import and export enterprises [17] - The brand value of Ningxia's Helan Mountain wine exceeded CNY 34 billion, ranking 8th in the regional brand value list [17]

证券代码：000568 证券简称：泸州老窖 泸州老窖股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-5-16 | 投资者关系活动 | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 类别 | | | | □媒体采访 ★业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他 股东大会交流 | | 参与单位名称及 | 通过互动易参加本次业绩说明会的投资者 | | 人员姓名 | | | 2025 时间 | 年 5 月 16 日 15:00-17:00 | | | 深圳证券交易所"互动易平台"http://irm.cninfo.com.cn | | 地点 | "云访谈"栏目 | | 上市公司接待人 | 董事长刘淼，独立董事陈有安、吕先锫、李国旺、李良琛，财 | | 员姓名 | 务总监谢红，副总经理、董事会秘书李勇 | | | 1. 当前白酒行业面对较大挑战，请问行业什么时候能够复苏？ | | | 答：尊敬的投资者，短期来看，行业仍处于调整期，本轮调整主 | | | 要受消费环境影响导致。我国产业体系完整、配套实力雄厚，经济发 | | | 展的韧性足、能力强，国 ...

简历显示，侯昊先生:经济学硕士,CFA(Chartered Financial Analyst特许金融分析师)、FRM(Financial Risk Manager金融风险管理师),2009年加入招商基金管理有 限公司,曾任风险管理部高级风控经理、部门负责人,负责投资风险管理、业绩归因、金融工程研究等工作;2011年加入量化投资部,在量化投资部的主要研究方 向是股指期货/商品期货交易策略和算法、结构化产品设计、数量化选股、微观结构等,现任招商基金量化投资部投资经理。2009年7月加入招商基金管理有 限公司,曾任风险管理部风控经理,量化投资部助理投资经理、投资经理,现任量化投资部副总监兼招商央视财经50指数证券投资基金基金经理(管理时间:2017 年9月5日至今)、招商中证大宗商品股票指数证券投资基金(LOF)基金经理(管理时间:2017年9月5日至今)、招商中证银行指数证券投资基金基金经理(管理时 间:2021年1月1日至今)、招商深证100指数证券投资基金基金经理(管理时间:2017年9月5日至今)、招商中证煤炭等权指数证券投资基金基金经理(管理时 间:2021年1月1日至今)、招商中证白酒指数证券投资基金 ...

Group 1: Industry Insights - The liquor industry is facing challenges, with companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Zhangyu expressing concerns about market conditions and sales performance [1][15] - Qingdao Beer is considering the integration of quality assets to enhance its market position, indicating a strategic approach to growth [13] - The recent regulations on public reception by government agencies may impact the consumption of alcoholic beverages in official settings [2] Group 2: Company Developments - Kweichow Moutai has completed 62.46 million shares repurchase, amounting to 10.11 billion yuan, which is two-thirds of its planned buyback [3] - Yanjing Beer is expanding into the non-alcoholic beverage market, launching a new soda brand to meet consumer demand and leverage synergies with its beer business [10][11] - Zhangyu's management remains cautiously optimistic about the long-term prospects of the domestic wine market despite current challenges [15][16] Group 3: Management Changes - Tim Ford is stepping down as CEO of Treasury Wine Estates, with Sam Fischer set to take over, bringing experience from both fast-moving consumer goods and the beverage industry [8] - Chen Qi, Vice Chairman of Shanghai Guijiu, has resigned due to personal reasons, continuing to serve as a board member [9]

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao's 2024 performance shows a slowdown in revenue and profit growth, with a focus on adapting to market changes and consumer demands, particularly among younger demographics [3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Luzhou Laojiao achieved revenue of approximately 31.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of about 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% [3]. - The fourth quarter revenue was around 6.893 billion yuan, with a net profit of approximately 1.88 billion yuan, showing a decline compared to the same period last year [3]. Market Dynamics - The liquor industry is transitioning from a phase of rapid growth to one of quality and sustainability, with increased competition and market differentiation [4]. - Luzhou Laojiao has set a goal for 2025 to achieve stable revenue growth amidst a challenging market environment characterized by high inventory and price discrepancies [4]. Inventory and Channel Management - The company maintains normal supply channels and has prepared adequately for the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival sales, despite previous media reports suggesting a halt in order acceptance [5]. - Luzhou Laojiao collaborates closely with distributors to adjust sales targets and market policies dynamically, ensuring a reasonable profit margin for clients and promoting healthy market development [4][5]. Digital Transformation - The company is undergoing significant digital reforms, shifting from a channel-driven sales strategy to a consumer-focused approach, enhancing marketing capabilities through digital tools [5]. - Concerns regarding the diminishing marginal effects of digital marketing strategies have been acknowledged, with the company emphasizing the importance of management system innovation [5]. Youth Engagement and Product Innovation - Luzhou Laojiao is actively developing products that cater to younger consumers, including innovative and cross-border collaboration products, with the "Three-Body" science fiction-themed liquor set to launch in June [3][7]. - The company has engaged in various promotional activities across cultural, artistic, and sports domains to resonate with the younger generation [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on high-quality development amidst increasing market competition and is preparing for a significant transformation in the industry [1] Group 1: Business Strategy and Goals - The company aims for steady revenue growth in 2025, emphasizing a theme of "gathering strength to tackle challenges and refining efforts for stable growth" [1] - The management highlighted the ongoing transition in the industry from extensive to refined operations, and from quantity to quality, indicating an impending phase of intense competition and accelerated differentiation among companies [1] Group 2: Product and Market Adaptation - The company has fully revamped its five major products starting in 2023 and is selling some premium aged products through online platforms [1] - Due to the trend of lower alcohol consumption in the market, the revenue share of the lower-alcohol version of Guojiao 1573 has been increasing, currently approaching 50% [1] Group 3: Distribution and Partnerships - The management reiterated the commitment to the "customer is the team" philosophy, focusing on creating value and wealth alongside customers [2] - The company plans to continue expanding its national distribution network and will selectively add high-quality customers to its sales system to support high-quality development [2]

Core Insights - The management of Luzhou Laojiao stated that the current "five-in-one" strategy is becoming a burden, with diminishing marginal effects of digitalization, particularly in the high-end liquor segment, which is struggling to achieve above-industry-average growth [1] - The company is focusing on a significant overhaul of its management system as part of its digital transformation, which is considered to be ahead of the industry [1] Group 1 - The company has shifted its sales strategy from a "left-side strategy" focused on channel push to a "right-side strategy" that enhances consumer engagement through bottle scanning [1] - Digitalization is being leveraged through tools such as channel digitalization, consumer digitalization, and personnel digitalization to improve marketing management capabilities and support precise marketing decisions [1] - The management emphasized close collaboration with distributors, adjusting sales targets and market policies dynamically to ensure reasonable profit margins for clients and promote healthy market development [1] Group 2 - In response to concerns about the stability of mid-tier products, the management highlighted the importance of a matrix product structure to adapt to market changes, with a focus on the Guojiao 1573 brand to drive the development of mid-tier products [2] - The company aims to implement consumer membership management and focus on core markets while exploring opportunities in emerging markets, striving for the revival and value return of the Luzhou Laojiao brand [2] - The management disclosed that the top three regional markets for sales are North China, Southwest, and East China, as reported in the annual report [2]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.40%, while the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index reported at 25115.40 points [1] - The CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index has increased by 2.16% in the past month, 7.78% in the past three months, and 2.99% year-to-date [2] - The CSI 300 Index is categorized into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries, with a base date of December 31, 2004, and a base point of 1000.0 [2] Group 2 - The top ten weights in the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index are: Kweichow Moutai (51.86%), Wuliangye (13.12%), Yili (9.68%), Shanxi Fenjiu (5.17%), Luzhou Laojiao (4.78%), Haitian Flavoring (3.64%), Dongpeng Beverage (2.92%), Yanghe (2.1%), Jinshiyuan (1.82%), and Gujing Gongjiu (1.36%) [2] - The market share of the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index is 76.40% from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 23.60% from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2] Group 3 - The industry composition of the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index includes: Baijiu (80.20%), Dairy Products (9.68%), Condiments and Edible Oils (4.59%), Soft Drinks (2.92%), Beer (1.31%), and Meat Products (1.30%) [3] - The index sample is adjusted biannually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [3] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made in response to changes in the CSI 300 Index samples [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Luzhou Laojiao with a target price of RMB 205.00, while the current price is RMB 130.14 [2][8][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights three favorable factors for the Chinese stock market, including continuous policy dividends, accelerated return of international capital, and recovery of economic fundamentals, which have positively impacted the allocation of Baijiu stocks [3][10]. - Luzhou Laojiao has shown resilience during the industry adjustment period, with a focus on steady revenue growth and a significant increase in the share of mid- to high-end products [11][12]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3% in total revenue and 27.9% in net profit from 2015 to 2024, maintaining positive growth for ten consecutive years [12][13]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 31.196 billion and a net profit of RMB 13.473 billion, with expectations for continued growth in the following years [4][9]. - The gross profit margin has increased significantly, reaching 87.5% in 2024, benefiting from the higher proportion of mid- to high-end products [13]. - The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of 65% for 2024, with plans to increase it to 70% and 75% in subsequent years, ensuring strong shareholder returns [14].