Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Domestic demand still needs to be boosted, with a focus on the clearing of pastures and new demand momentum [3][4] - The food and beverage index increased by 0.7% from July 14 to July 18, ranking 13th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.4 percentage points [11][13] - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 1.6 percentage points [3][11] - The restaurant and catering revenue in June 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 0.9% and a decline of 0.4%, indicating significant pressure on restaurant consumption [3][11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed the market, with a 0.7% increase, ranking 13th among sectors [11][13] - Sub-sectors such as soft drinks (+2.0%), dairy products (+1.2%), and liquor (+0.9%) performed relatively well [11][13] Upstream Data - The price of whole milk powder in the GDT auction on July 15 was $3,928 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 25.0% [18][22] - The domestic fresh milk price was 3.0 yuan per kilogram, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.2% [18][22] Recommendations - Recommended companies include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Wancheng Group, and Bairun Shares [5] - Guizhou Moutai is expected to deepen its reform process and emphasize sustainable development despite short-term demand pressure [5] - Shanxi Fenjiu has high mid-term growth certainty, with product structure upgrades and accelerated national expansion [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Views - The rotation between old and new consumption sectors continues, with leading brands in liquor and dairy products rebounding. The performance of mass-market products in Q2 shows divergence, with new consumption-related stocks experiencing rapid growth despite previous adjustments in performance expectations. Traditional channel reforms have impacted some stocks, leading to ongoing adjustments in performance [1][3][33] - The liquor sector is expected to have limited downside potential for leading companies, with high ROE, dividends, and cautious profit assumptions indicating a valuation floor. Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao [2][12] - New consumption trends are anticipated to continue, with potential for recovery in the second half of the year. Focus on low-priced or undervalued stocks with future catalysts, including Wei Long, Yili, and Wancheng Group [1][3][33] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector remains at a low point, with a focus on potential policy catalysts and rebound opportunities. Leading brands with strong market positions are prioritized for investment. Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu [2][12] - Recent performance shows a positive trend, with Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe, and Jiu Gui Jiu leading in gains, while Jinzhidao and Huangtai Jiuye faced declines [5][39] Mass-Market Products - The new consumption paradigm is reshaping the food and beverage investment landscape. Despite a recent pullback, the long-term trend remains positive, with clear opportunities for continued investment. Focus on stocks that align with new consumption trends, such as Wei Long, Yili, and Wancheng Group [3][33] - The mass-market sector has seen significant fluctuations, with stocks like Huangshi Group and Guoquan showing strong gains, while stocks like Ganyuan and Gu Ming faced notable declines [39][42] Performance Metrics - From July 14 to July 18, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09%, with non-dairy beverages and liquor sectors showing gains of 2.16% and 1.30%, respectively. Conversely, frozen foods and snacks experienced declines of 2.26% and 1.10% [39][40] - The valuation levels for the food and beverage industry have adjusted, with the liquor sector showing the highest valuation increase this week [43]

Group 1 - Wuliangye's stock has recently shown a remarkable "9 consecutive days of gains" trend, which has boosted market sentiment despite one day of decline during this period [1][5] - The stock price of Wuliangye has stabilized after entering a downward trend following its historical peak in 2021, with recent performance indicating a potential recovery [5][7] - The white liquor sector, including Wuliangye, has seen negative sentiment and pessimistic expectations fully priced in, suggesting limited downside potential [7] Group 2 - Wuliangye is considered a representative of value investment in the white liquor industry, with early investors having profited significantly during the previous bull market [3] - The stock price of Wuliangye increased dramatically from approximately 27.18 yuan at the beginning of 2019 to a peak of 337.39 yuan in 2021, reflecting a substantial rise over two years [3] - Despite recent earnings declines in the white liquor sector, Wuliangye's stock has shown resilience, indicating that the market may react positively to earnings that are not as bad as expected [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent actions taken by China's leading liquor companies, Moutai and Wuliangye, to clean up their e-commerce channels highlight a significant shift in the industry aimed at combating counterfeit products and improving consumer experience [1][5]. Group 1: E-commerce Channel Changes - Moutai's e-commerce channel underwent notable changes within 12 days, with approximately 24 online stores being removed and 4 new ones added [1]. - Wuliangye previously reduced its e-commerce stores by 15 and added 4, indicating a trend among major liquor brands to tighten control over online sales [1][5]. - The cleaning actions by both companies are responses to increasing issues faced by consumers when purchasing products online, reflecting a need to restore order in e-commerce channels [1]. Group 2: Impact on Specific Retailers - All 6 stores under the "billion-level" distributor, Gedeyingxiang, were removed from Moutai's e-commerce channel, marking a significant shift in Moutai's online sales strategy [1]. - Gedeyingxiang's stores showed abnormal operational status, with many listings indicating "out of stock" and a lack of recent activity on social media platforms [6]. Group 3: Counterfeit Product Concerns - Moutai's subsidiary, Laimao, found that 22.1% of the 289 bottles sampled from various platforms were counterfeit [5]. - Wuliangye provided free authentication services for 1,610 bottles, revealing that 16.65% were counterfeit, underscoring the severity of the issue [5]. Group 4: Gedeyingxiang's Operational Challenges - Gedeyingxiang has faced significant operational difficulties, including a history of unpaid wages and legal restrictions on its consumption due to non-compliance with court orders [8]. - The company’s financial troubles have led to the freezing of 44.29 million RMB worth of shares held by its legal representative [8][10]. Group 5: Industry Implications - The actions of Moutai and Wuliangye signal a broader trend in the liquor industry towards stricter channel management and quality control, indicating that companies must ensure high standards to survive in a competitive market [11].

Group 1 - Wuliangye is actively pursuing internationalization, participating in high-profile global events to enhance cultural exchange and cooperation [1][2] - The company showcased its products at the China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo, highlighting its core offerings and attracting significant attention [1] - Wuliangye's participation in the Boao Forum for Asia emphasizes its commitment to long-term development and quality growth amidst external uncertainties [2] Group 2 - The company is focusing on openness, inclusivity, and cultural exchange as key development themes, aiming to promote Chinese traditional culture globally [3] - Wuliangye plans to achieve over 20% growth in international market sales by 2024, enhancing its brand competitiveness [3] - The brand has been rated AAA+ in the Brand Finance 2025 Global Spirits Brand 50 list, marking the highest rating and demonstrating consistent growth in brand strength over the past decade [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on traditional consumer head enterprises, indicating they have long-term investment value from a dividend and yield perspective [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the pressure on the liquor sector is expected to remain significant due to slow macro demand recovery and limited consumption scenarios, with key recommendations including Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao [5][6] - In the mass consumer goods sector, the report emphasizes the cost advantages supporting profitability and the growth potential driven by new products and channels, particularly in dairy and beer sectors [5][7] - The report identifies opportunities in the dairy sector due to supply-demand rebalancing and policy support, recommending companies like Yili and Qingdao Beer [5][7] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.68% increase last week, with liquor rising by 0.88%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.02 percentage points [4] - The report notes that the liquor sector is under pressure, with Moutai's bottle price stable at 1870 yuan and a slight decrease in bulk prices [6][26] 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The report indicates that the food and beverage industry underperformed the Shenwan A index by 0.64 percentage points, with various sub-sectors showing mixed results [45] - The beverage and dairy sector outperformed the index by 0.14 percentage points, while other sectors like processed food and snacks lagged behind [45] 3. Liquor Sector Updates - Moutai's pricing remains stable, while other brands like Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 experienced slight price declines [6][26] - The report mentions Moutai's plans to establish joint ventures in various provinces to enhance market order and collaboration [6] 4. Mass Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.23 trillion yuan in June, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, but the beverage sector saw a decline of 4.4% [7] - The report highlights the growth potential in the snack and low-alcohol beverage segments driven by new retail formats and consumer trends [7]

Core Viewpoint - Major liquor companies, including Moutai and Wuliangye, are tightening control over their online sales channels due to increasing consumer complaints about counterfeit products, leading to significant reductions in authorized online stores [2][6][9]. Group 1: Channel Adjustments - Moutai's recent online store list saw the removal of approximately 24 stores and the addition of about 4 new ones, indicating a significant shift in its e-commerce strategy [2][3]. - Wuliangye also undertook a similar channel cleanup in March, reducing its online store count by 15 while adding 4 new stores [6][9]. - The online sales lists cover major platforms such as JD.com, Douyin, Tmall, WeChat Video, Kuaishou, Suning, and Vipshop, totaling over 140 stores for Moutai [3][6]. Group 2: Counterfeit Product Issues - Moutai's sampling of 289 bottles of its Lai Moutai sold online revealed that 64 bottles were counterfeit, highlighting the severity of the issue [7]. - Wuliangye provided free authentication services for 1,610 bottles, with 268 identified as counterfeit, accounting for 16.65% of the total [7]. - Both companies have expressed a "zero tolerance" policy towards counterfeit products, emphasizing the need for strict channel management [6][9]. Group 3: Impact on Authorized Dealers - The company GeDeYingXiang, previously a major distributor, had 6 of its online stores removed from Moutai's sales list, indicating a significant loss of business [8][9]. - GeDeYingXiang's operational status has been questioned, with reports of its stores showing no stock and a lack of customer service responses [9][10]. - The company is facing financial difficulties, including wage arrears and court-ordered restrictions on its operations, which have contributed to its removal from the authorized dealer list [10][15]. Group 4: Industry Implications - The actions taken by Moutai and Wuliangye signal a broader trend of tightening control over online sales channels in the liquor industry, aimed at protecting brand value and consumer rights [9][15]. - The ongoing restructuring of online distribution channels suggests an accelerated consolidation within the liquor market, as companies seek to enhance operational quality and consumer experience [9][15].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant case of counterfeit liquor being sold in a supermarket, raising concerns about consumer safety and the integrity of retail operations [1]. Group 1 - A customer reported purchasing 207 bottles of counterfeit Wuliangye liquor from a supermarket, with each bottle priced over a thousand yuan [1]. - The incident occurred in January 2024 at a Huaren Wanjia supermarket, where the customer initially bought 347 bottles, leading to police involvement and confirmation of the counterfeit products [1]. - The court ruled that the supermarket was aware of the counterfeit sales and mandated a refund along with compensation exceeding 120,000 yuan to the customer [1].

Core Viewpoint - The trend of low-alcohol liquor is gaining momentum in China, with major companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao planning to launch new products in this category by 2025, appealing particularly to younger consumers [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Numerous liquor companies are focusing on low-alcohol products, which maintain flavor while reducing alcohol stimulation, making them popular among consumers, especially the younger demographic [2][4]. - The live broadcast discussing the new layout for low-alcohol liquor in 2025 attracted over 300,000 viewers, indicating significant interest in this market segment [2][4]. Group 2: Technical Challenges - The development of low-alcohol liquor faces two main technical challenges: maintaining the original flavor profile after reducing alcohol content and masking the taste of water, which has historically been a barrier [5][6]. - Recent advancements have shown that companies like Wuliangye have made significant progress in overcoming these challenges, with new samples showing improved flavor retention and reduced water taste [5][6]. Group 3: Market Considerations - Despite the advancements, the market outlook for low-alcohol liquor remains cautious, with a recommendation to observe consumer feedback over the next three years to assess market viability [5][6]. - The production of low-alcohol liquor is more complex and costly compared to high-alcohol liquor, which may affect profitability for companies [6][7]. Group 4: Consumer Insights - The primary consumer base for low-alcohol liquor may currently be middle-aged individuals who prioritize health, while younger consumers require targeted marketing strategies to engage them effectively [11][12]. - Recommendations for consumers include choosing well-known brands and products that have been market-tested for over ten years to ensure quality and safety [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Low-alcohol liquor is unlikely to replace high-alcohol liquor as the mainstream choice in the market, but it may expand as a category, contributing to a diverse product offering [12]. - Innovations in flavor and marketing strategies will be crucial for attracting younger consumers and ensuring the long-term success of low-alcohol products [14].

行 业 及 产 业 食品饮料 2025 年 07 月 18 日 研究支持 王栗晴 A0230123110002 wanglq@swsresearch.com 联系人 王栗晴 (8621)23297818× wanglq@swsresearch.com 相关研究 《茅台完成半年经营任务 食品中期业绩分 化——食品饮料行业周报 20250707- 20250711》 2025/07/12 《白酒批价暂稳 关注个股中报——食品饮 料行业周报 20250630-20250704》 2025/07/05 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 严泽楠 A0230524090001 yanzn@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 白酒压力显现 食品分化加剧 看好 —— 食品饮料 2025 年中报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 ...