Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Wuliangye with a target price of 215 yuan [1] Core Views - The company held a conference to review its achievements and shortcomings for 2025 and to plan for 2026, introducing a new zodiac-themed product [1] - The company aims to solidify its leading position in the 1,000 yuan price range and enhance its marketing strategies, focusing on product promotion and channel optimization [5] - The report suggests that the company is on the right path to reversing its current challenges by adopting a flexible strategy to boost sales and market share [5] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 89,175 million, 72,234 million, 72,533 million, and 77,794 million respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.1%, -19.0%, 0.4%, and 7.3% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 31,853 million, 23,507 million, 23,882 million, and 26,317 million for the same years, with growth rates of 5.4%, -26.2%, 1.6%, and 10.2% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 8.21, 6.06, 6.15, and 6.78 yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [1] Market Performance - The company has seen a significant increase in its marketing activities, with over 20,000 tasting events held and a digital membership base exceeding 30 million [5] - The company plans to enhance its market presence by targeting specific regions and demographics, including younger consumers and international markets [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on improving its channel partnerships and expanding its retail presence, with plans to add new specialty stores while eliminating underperforming ones [5] - A performance evaluation system will be implemented to enhance operational efficiency and accountability within the organization [5]

五粮液认为可持续发展不是选择题，而是必答题，是企业长期竞争力的根本来源，因此，五粮液创新构 建白酒行业首个系统化"四循环体系"，以"土、热、电、水"重构资源利用方式，致力于打造负责任的商 业生态。 当地时间12月15日，由联合国环境规划署（UNEP）、可持续企业家论坛（SBLF）等机构联合主办 的"创建可持续商业与品牌高级别对话会"在位于肯尼亚内罗毕的联合国环境规划署总部举行，《五粮液 （000858）：以"四循环"打造负责任的商业体系》的可持续发展实践，入选2025年"创建可持续品牌"愿 景倡议代表性案例。12月16日，五粮液以战略合作伙伴、晚宴指定用酒身份亮相"可持续企业家论坛 2025：创建地球友好的可持续商业"主题活动，携手全球伙伴共创绿色未来。 由可持续企业家论坛等共同发起的"创建可持续品牌"愿景倡议于今年9月在联合国日内瓦万国宫的发 布，标志着中国品牌正以集体行动携手塑造可持续全球新名 ，主动引领并构建可持续商业国际共识。 此后，为推动"创建可持续品牌"愿景倡议，从愿景共识落实为可借鉴、可遵循的实践路径，向世界讲述 中国品牌的可持续发展故事，可持续企业家论坛与联合国环境规划署（UNEP）、联合国环 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a significant price decline, with the average retail price of the top ten liquor products dropping to 9048 yuan, marking a new low since the expansion of the list on November 18, down 38 yuan from the previous day and 2.6% from the peak of 9291 yuan on November 25 [1][2] Price Trends - The market shows a downward trend with most products experiencing price drops, including: - Crystal Jian Nan Chun down 11 yuan per bottle - Premium Moutai down 8 yuan per bottle - Wuliangye down 7 yuan per bottle - Other notable declines include Qinghua Fen down 5 yuan and Flying Moutai down 4 yuan [2][5][6] - Only a few products have seen price increases, such as Qinghua Lang up 4 yuan and Guojiao 1573 up 1 yuan [2][6] Market Analysis - According to CITIC Securities, the food and beverage sector is currently undervalued, with recommendations to focus on liquor and specific mass-market products, anticipating better performance from the mass-market segment compared to the overall liquor market [3] - The report suggests that companies like Gujing Gongjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Zhenjiu Lidu are strong candidates for investment due to their solid brand support and operational capabilities [3]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a significant price decline, with the average retail price of the top ten liquor products dropping to 9048 yuan, marking a new low since the expansion of the list on November 18, down 38 yuan from the previous day and 2.6% from the peak of 9291 yuan on November 25 [1][8]. Price Trends - The market shows a general downward trend, with eight products declining in price and only two experiencing slight increases. The largest drop was seen in the price of Crystal Jian Nan Chun, which fell by 11 yuan per bottle, followed by the premium Moutai, which decreased by 8 yuan per bottle [2][9]. - Other notable price changes include: - Wuliangye Pu Wu 8th generation down 7 yuan - Qinghua Fen 20 and Xijiu Junpin down 5 yuan each - Flying Moutai down 4 yuan - Gujing Gong Gu 20 down 2 yuan - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ down 1 yuan - Qinghua Lang up 4 yuan - Guojiao 1573 up 1 yuan [2][9][11]. Market Analysis - According to a report from CITIC Securities, the food and beverage sector is currently valued at a historical low, with recommendations to invest in liquor and mass-market products. The report anticipates that the mass-market segment will outperform the overall liquor market, with expectations for demand to stabilize as the Spring Festival approaches [3][10]. - Specific stocks recommended for investment include Gujing Gongjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Zhenjiu Lidu, based on their strong brand support, operational capabilities, and innovative marketing strategies [3][10].

Core Insights - The 2025 China Baijiu Chief Taster Annual Conference was held in Yibin, Sichuan, focusing on quality inheritance and innovation in the baijiu industry [2] - The conference emphasized the shift from "enterprise-led" to "consumer-defined value" in the baijiu industry, highlighting the role of chief tasters as "value translators" and "quality gatekeepers" [2] Industry Developments - The event gathered chief tasters and industry representatives to discuss tasting techniques and provide technical advice for the development of baijiu quality [2] - The chief taster team is evolving, with more "post-80s" tasters emerging, bringing fresh perspectives to flavor design and innovation in baijiu craftsmanship [3] Product Highlights - Wuliangye showcased five representative products, including the 29° Wuliangye and the 39° Wuliangye, which received unanimous praise for their complex aromas and smooth taste [4] - The 29° Wuliangye product was particularly noted for its clarity, prominent fruit and sweet aromas, and a light, smooth mouthfeel [4] Strategic Focus - Wuliangye aims to emphasize quality as the foundation of its business, committing to excellence in every bottle produced [4] - The company plans to strengthen its quality management through improved raw material supply, ecological brewing processes, and technological innovation [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, the Chinese fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market exhibited distinct characteristics of "price reduction, volume increase, structural differentiation, and channel reshaping." The overall market average price decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed, indicating price stabilization. Third to fifth-tier cities have become the main drivers of sales recovery, while competition in first and second-tier cities has intensified. Notably, packaged food sales led with a growth rate of 3.4%, although the momentum is slowing due to price sensitivity. Beverages are the only category to experience a decline, significantly impacted by price wars and competition from freshly brewed tea drinks [2][4][27]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The FMCG market in China is characterized by a "price reduction, volume increase" trend, with a 2.4% year-on-year decline in average prices, which is stabilizing. Sales growth in lower-tier cities contributed approximately 80% to market growth, with a year-on-year increase of 4-6% [17][21][27]. Category Performance - Packaged food sales grew by 3.4% year-on-year, driven by stable demand for core and snack food categories. However, growth momentum is slowing, with quarterly growth rates of 4.6%, 4.2%, and 2.9%. In contrast, the beverage category saw a 1.1% decline in sales, despite a 3.6% increase in volume, primarily due to a 4.6% drop in average prices [21][25][27]. Channel Dynamics - The channel landscape is evolving, with traditional offline channels continuing to shrink. Emerging formats such as warehouse membership stores and snack collection stores are experiencing rapid growth, with increases of approximately 40%, 51%, and 92% respectively. E-commerce channels also showed resilience with a growth rate of about 7% [22][27]. Subsector Performance - The food and beverage sector has seen a mixed performance, with the overall index down 3.66% since the beginning of the year, lagging behind the CSI 300 index. However, subsectors like snack foods, food composites, and soft drinks have shown relative strength in recent weeks [29][35]. Industry Trends - The liquor industry is undergoing strategic adjustments, with major companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye implementing market reforms. Fast food and coffee brands are leveraging price adjustments and co-branding initiatives to attract consumers. The soft drink sector is focusing on product innovation and brand exposure, while the dairy sector is investing in capacity expansion and governance changes [35][36][37].

在经历了数年的调整后，以白酒、乳业为代表的消费股被多名基金经理视作震荡市中的"防御选择"，而新消费 则面临高景气度与高估值并存的现象，需要寻找有护城河的投资标的。此外，出海也是基金经理关注的要点， 尤其是业务聚焦欧美市场或将成股价的驱动因素。 消费板块年末"冲刺" 在一系列旨在扩大内需、提振消费的政策举措陆续出台后，过去的一周里，消费、零售股迎来了久违的反弹， 如百大集团单周涨幅高达51.59%，欢乐家涨超40%，还有庄园牧场、上海九百等涨逾30%。 "慢牛"的风，终于吹到了消费股。 在科技股集体到达短期高位后，此前缺席的消费板块也迎来补涨行情。但值得一提的是，本轮异动的多只个股 中，罕有公募基金的重仓身影，而被公募集中持有的白酒股依旧难有起色。 其中，百大集团股价创10年来新高；利群股份4日3涨停，上海九百连续2日涨停，中央商场、永辉超市、茂业 商业等最近几个交易日里也多次涨停。 基金方面，上周多只消费主题ETF获得了资金的净申购。嘉实中证主要消费ETF单周份额增幅高达2.68亿份， 汇添富中证主要消费ETF和富国中证消费50ETF份额增超1亿份，此外平安基金、招商基金和易方达基金旗下 多只产品份额增超千万 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing significant challenges, with a deep adjustment phase leading to price declines and market restructuring [1][3][5] - Major liquor companies are shifting from passive responses to proactive strategies to stabilize prices and regain market confidence [1][4][11] Price Dynamics - The wholesale price index for liquor dropped by 9.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with premium liquor prices falling by 14.96% [3] - The price of Feitian Moutai has decreased by approximately 35% from the beginning of the year, falling below the retail guidance price of 1499 yuan [3] - Many first-tier liquor brands are facing "price inversion," where wholesale prices are lower than factory prices, leading to significant market pressure [3][5] Market Concentration - In the first three quarters of 2025, only two out of twenty listed liquor companies achieved revenue growth, while the total revenue for the sector declined by 5.83% [5] - The top six liquor companies accounted for 84% of market share, indicating increasing concentration and challenges for smaller firms [5][6] Management Changes - The liquor industry has seen numerous executive changes in 2025, with key figures resigning amid poor performance [7][8] - These changes are viewed as attempts to adapt to new market conditions and enhance operational efficiency [8] Transformation and Innovation - Brands focusing on "low-alcohol and health" products, such as Jin Liquor, have experienced growth, with an expected overall increase of about 10% in 2025 [10] - Major liquor companies are innovating by introducing lower-alcohol products and engaging in direct consumer interactions to adapt to changing consumer preferences [11][12]

Core Insights - The 2025 China Baijiu Chief Taster Annual Conference was held in Yibin, Sichuan, focusing on the theme "Appreciating Fragrance and Harmony" to promote quality development in the Baijiu industry [1] Industry Trends - The Baijiu industry is transitioning from "enterprise-led" to "consumer-defined value," with chief tasters acting as "value translators" and "quality gatekeepers" [3] - There is a noticeable shift in the composition of chief tasters, with more "post-80s" tasters emerging, bringing fresh perspectives to cater to younger consumer preferences [5] Product Evaluation - The tasting event featured eight rounds of evaluations with 47 representative products from various companies, including Wuliangye, Moutai, and Luzhou Laojiao, focusing on detailed assessments of flavor profiles and craftsmanship [4] - Wuliangye's products, including the 29° Wuliangye and the 39° Wuliangye, received high praise for their complex aromas and smooth textures, showcasing the company's ongoing exploration in low-alcohol and aging processes [5] Company Commitment - Wuliangye emphasizes the importance of quality as the foundation of its business, committing to strengthen its supply chain, adhere to ecological brewing processes, and drive technological innovation to ensure sustainable development in the Baijiu industry [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing significant adjustments, facing challenges from macro policies and shrinking consumer demand, leading to a decline in prices and market confidence [3][5]. Price Decline and Control Upgrades - The wholesale price index for liquor in China fell by 9.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with premium liquor prices dropping by 14.96% [5]. - The price of Feitian Moutai has decreased by approximately 35% from the beginning of the year, falling below the retail guidance price of 1499 yuan [5]. - Major liquor companies are tightening their supply and implementing measures to stabilize prices, with Wuliangye and Moutai taking significant steps to support their distributors and maintain market order [6][7]. Concentration Increase and Small Enterprises' Struggles - In the first three quarters of 2025, only two out of twenty listed liquor companies achieved revenue growth, while the total revenue for the sector decreased by 5.83% year-on-year [9]. - The top six liquor companies accounted for 84% of the market share, indicating a growing concentration in the industry [9]. - Many small and medium-sized enterprises are facing severe challenges, with some experiencing financial distress and "exploding" due to unsustainable business models [10]. Frequent Personnel Changes - The liquor industry has seen numerous personnel changes in 2025, with key figures resigning amid poor performance, reflecting the pressure for companies to adapt to new market conditions [12][13]. - The frequent turnover is viewed as a strategy to bring in new ideas and improve execution efficiency during a challenging market cycle [13]. Value Restructuring and Accelerated Transformation - Brands that focus on "low-alcohol and health" products, such as Jin Liquor, have seen growth, with an expected increase of around 10% in overall performance for 2025 [15]. - Major liquor companies are shifting their focus to younger consumers and value-for-money products, with new product launches aimed at capturing changing consumer preferences [16][17].