证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 1 日 公司基本情况 最新收盘价（元） 50.08 总股本/流通股本（亿股）2.73 / 2.44 总市值/流通市值（亿元）137 / 122 52 周内最高/最低价 83.50 / 35.78 资产负债率(%) 49.1% 市盈率 18.99 第一大股东湖南盐津铺子控股有限 公司 研究所 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -35% -31% -27% -23% -19% -15% -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 2023-10 2024-01 2024-03 2024-06 2024-08 2024-10 盐津铺子 食品饮料 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 盐津铺子(002847) 收入延续高增，经营性利润率环比提升 ⚫ 事件 公司2024年前三季度实现营业总收入/营业收入/归母净利润/扣 非 净 利 润 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Revenue continues to grow at a high rate, with momentum remaining strong [1] - Channel structure adjustments have lowered gross margins [1] - The company achieved revenue of 3.861 billion yuan in 2024Q1-Q3, a year-on-year increase of 28%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 493 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25% [1] - In 2024Q3, the company's revenue was 1.402 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 174 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16% [1] - Gross margin in 2024Q3 decreased by 2 percentage points to 30.62%, mainly due to changes in channel structure [1] - The company aims to achieve a mid-term net profit margin target of 15% by focusing on brand building and enhancing B-end brand recognition [1] Business Performance and Strategy - Membership-based supermarkets maintain high momentum, with the "Egg King" quail eggs entering Sam's Club, achieving monthly sales of tens of millions [1] - The company maintains a leading position in the snack retail channel and has deep strategic cooperation with snack stores, showing high growth momentum [1] - The quantitative distribution channel focuses on building core products, with average double-digit growth this year, and is a key breakthrough direction for the next 3-5 years [1] - E-commerce channel achieved monthly sales exceeding 100 million yuan since Q2, with online pricing higher than offline for the "Big Devil" konjac product category [1] - The company has entered the nut and poultry product categories, promoting external growth through channel sinking and organizational restructuring [1] Financial Forecasts - Adjusted EPS for 2024-2026 are 2.33/3.04/3.78 yuan, with current stock price corresponding to PE ratios of 22/17/13 times [1] - Revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are forecasted at 26.0%, 25.1%, and 22.3%, respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company growth rates for 2024-2026 are forecasted at 25.9%, 30.0%, and 24.6%, respectively [2] - ROE is expected to be 35.6%, 37.4%, and 37.5% for 2024-2026 [2] Financial Metrics - Gross margin for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 32.9%, 33.2%, and 33.5%, respectively [3] - Net profit margin for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 12.5%, 13.0%, and 13.2%, respectively [3] - Asset-liability ratio is expected to decrease from 46.0% in 2024 to 38.5% in 2026 [3] - Total asset turnover is forecasted to increase from 1.6 in 2024 to 1.8 in 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 64.68 RMB, compared to the last closing price of 52.40 RMB [1][2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.861 billion RMB for Q1-Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 493 million RMB, up 24.55% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 424 million RMB, reflecting a 12.09% increase [2][3]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.402 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 26.20%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for this quarter was 174 million RMB, up 15.62% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 151 million RMB, showing a 4.80% increase [2][3]. - The company has seen robust growth in its major products, particularly the konjac and quail eggs, with significant performance in the Douyin e-commerce channel, which has surpassed 100 million RMB in monthly sales [2][3]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 31.84%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in channel structure [2][3]. - The report projects revenue growth rates of 26.54%, 24.16%, and 20.17% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 24.18%, 27.70%, and 24.88% for the same years [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company is expected to generate a revenue of 5.207 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 26.54%. The net profit is projected to be 628 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 24.18% [3]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 2.30 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22.76 for 2024, 17.82 for 2025, and 14.27 for 2026 [3]. Market Position - The company is focusing on seven core product categories and implementing a strategy to create blockbuster products, which has led to rapid growth in its key offerings [2][3]. - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned to outperform the snack food industry, with a multi-channel approach driving sales growth [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6][17] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.861 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 493 million yuan, up 24.55% year-on-year [3] - The company is focusing on a multi-category strategy, emphasizing seven core categories and aiming to enhance product quality and supply chain efficiency. The company plans to develop new growth categories while leveraging all-channel strategies for revenue and profit growth [4] - The company maintains good control over operating expenses, with a gross margin of 31.84% and a net margin of 12.83%. The company is expected to achieve a trend of increasing profit margins through various measures [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.402 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.20%, and a net profit of 174 million yuan, up 15.62% year-on-year [3] - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 5.242 billion yuan, 6.531 billion yuan, and 7.862 billion yuan, with growth rates of 27.37%, 24.60%, and 20.37% respectively [6][8] - The net profit projections for the same period are 646 million yuan, 817 million yuan, and 1 billion yuan, with growth rates of 27.77%, 26.36%, and 22.52% respectively [6][8] Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its channel operations by focusing on different channel characteristics, including strengthening partnerships with major snack retailers and expanding e-commerce capabilities [4] - The company aims to establish new market bases in provinces such as Sichuan, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang over the next three years [4] Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s expense ratios for sales, management, and R&D are 12.85%, 4.00%, and 1.49% respectively, indicating effective cost management [5] - The company’s gross margin is projected to stabilize around 32.7% to 33.1% over the next few years, reflecting a focus on maintaining profitability [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [5][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.861 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 493 million yuan, up 24.55% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 5.230 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected net profit of 679 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 34% [6][9]. - The company is focusing on multi-category growth through bulk and online channels, enhancing brand strength, optimizing product structure, and integrating the supply chain to improve profitability [6]. Financial Summary - For the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 14.02 billion yuan, a 26.2% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.74 billion yuan, up 15.62% [5][6]. - The gross profit margin for the third quarter of 2024 was 30.6%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to channel structure adjustments [7]. - The company’s operating profit for the third quarter was 208 million yuan, reflecting a 28% increase year-on-year [7]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 4.115 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.230 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 27.1% [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 1.85 yuan in 2023 to 2.49 yuan in 2024, with a net profit margin of 12.5% for the third quarter of 2024 [6][9].

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company maintains high revenue growth, with Q3 2024 revenue reaching 1.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.2% [1][2] - The company focuses on seven core product categories, enhancing brand strength, and has established a joint venture to develop meat and nut products, indicating a strategy for long-term growth [2] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 is 30.6%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product and channel structure [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.86 billion yuan, up 28.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 490 million yuan, up 24.5% year-on-year [1] - The company forecasts revenue growth of 31.5%, 26.2%, and 21.1% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits expected to be 686 million yuan, 878 million yuan, and 1.165 billion yuan for the same years [4] - The company's operating income for 2024 is projected to be 5.41 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 12.7% [4][5] Key Financial Metrics - Q3 2024 net profit reached 170 million yuan, a 15.6% increase year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 12.3% [3] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 37.2% in 2024, indicating strong profitability [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 27.8 in 2023 to 20.5 in 2024, suggesting potential for valuation improvement [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a steady revenue performance with a slight pressure on profitability. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.861 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 493 million yuan, up 24.55% year-on-year. In Q3 2024 alone, revenue reached 1.402 billion yuan, a 26.20% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 174 million yuan, growing 15.62% year-on-year [2][6] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 decreased by 2.32 percentage points to 30.62%, primarily due to adjustments in channel structure and product categories. The increase in the proportion of quail egg products and rising prices of konjac raw materials also contributed to this decline. The sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, and R&D expense ratio increased by 0.29, -1.34, and -0.23 percentage points respectively [6] - The company is expected to continue achieving high growth through a dual-driven strategy of channels and products. It has quickly adapted to channel changes, expanding into new platforms like live e-commerce and leveraging its strong organizational and supply chain capabilities [6] Financial Summary - For 2024-2026, the company’s revenue is projected to be 5.274 billion yuan, 6.519 billion yuan, and 7.909 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 28.17%, 23.61%, and 21.32% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 650 million yuan, 795 million yuan, and 976 million yuan, with growth rates of 28.53%, 22.36%, and 22.67% respectively. The EPS is expected to be 2.38 yuan, 2.92 yuan, and 3.58 yuan per share for the same period [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.86 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 490 million yuan, up 24.5% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue reached 1.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26.2%, and net profit was 170 million yuan, growing 15.6% year-on-year [1][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a gross margin of 31.8% in the first three quarters, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in channel structure. The net profit margin was 12.8%, down 0.6 percentage points, mainly affected by a temporary increase in the income tax rate [2]. Product Performance - New products such as "Egg Emperor" quail eggs and "Big Demon King" vegetarian tripe have gained wide recognition, contributing to significant revenue growth. In Q3 2024, revenue from leisure konjac and quail eggs reached 240 million yuan (+39%) and 180 million yuan (+64%), respectively [1][2]. Channel Development - The company has made significant strides in the membership store channel, with "Egg Emperor" quail eggs entering Sam's Club. The snack channel continues to grow rapidly, with enhanced cooperation with leading systems. The "Big Demon King" vegetarian tripe is also seeing strong performance in e-commerce [1]. Shareholder Returns and Supply Chain - The company completed a buyback of 1.57 million shares for a total amount of 59.88 million yuan, which has been fully canceled to reduce registered capital. The first phase of the quail egg breeding base has reached full production, with future phases expected to increase daily egg production to 120 tons [2]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 630 million yuan, 810 million yuan, and 1 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 2.31 yuan, 2.97 yuan, and 3.68 yuan, with dynamic PE ratios of 23x, 18x, and 14x [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company has achieved rapid growth across multiple channels and product categories, establishing a comprehensive product system for Chinese-style snacks. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.861 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 493 million yuan, up 24.55% year-on-year [1]. - The company focuses on seven core product categories and enhances its supply chain and product quality. It has expanded its product offerings to include various packaging formats to meet diverse consumer needs [1]. - The company has strengthened its marketing efforts, leading to an increase in sales expenses. The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 31.84%, a decrease of 2.62 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.197 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 26.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 607 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 20.0% [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 2.23 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24 [2][5]. - The company's financial indicators show a stable cost structure, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios remaining relatively stable [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue growth of 26.2% year-on-year in the third quarter, with significant contributions from konjac and quail egg products. The revenue for the first three quarters reached 3.861 billion yuan, up 28.49% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 493 million yuan, an increase of 24.55% year-on-year [1][5][6] - The company has completed its multi-channel layout, benefiting from strong supply chain capabilities and a rich product matrix, which helps consolidate growth in high-growth channels such as bulk snacks and e-commerce. The focus on brand building for products like "Da Mo Wang" and "Dan Huang" is expected to enhance growth momentum [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved a total revenue of 1.402 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.2%, and a net profit of 174 million yuan, up 15.62% year-on-year. The net profit margin decreased due to fluctuations in tax rates and a decline in gross sales difference [1][5][6] - For the first three quarters, the company reported a total revenue of 3.861 billion yuan and a net profit of 493 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 28.49% and 24.55% respectively [1][5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting revenues of 5.219 billion yuan, 6.513 billion yuan, and 7.890 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.8%, 24.8%, and 21.1%. The net profit is projected to be 661 million yuan, 849 million yuan, and 1.048 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 30.6%, 28.5%, and 23.5% respectively [7][11]