| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17085 | 10 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 2017 | -20 | | | 08-09月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -30 | 10 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 94820 | -1037 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | 1632 | 407 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 55130 | 2229 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 55149 | 1846 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 249375 | -3000 | | | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16875 | -50 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 17040 | -30 | | 现货市场 | 铅主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -210 | -60 LME铅升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -33.62 | -11.04 | | | 铅精矿50%-60%价格,济源(日) WB ...

证券代码：002961 证券简称：瑞达期货 公告编号：2025-064 债券代码：128116 债券简称：瑞达转债 | 证券代码:002961 | | --- | | 债券代码:128116 | 瑞达期货股份有限公司 2025 年半年度业绩预告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、本期业绩预计情况 1、业绩预告期间：2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 6 月 30 日 2、业绩预告情况： 亏损 扭亏为盈 同向上升 同向下降 | 项目 | 本报告期 | | | 上年同期 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司股 东的净利润 | 盈利：20,600 万元–25,060 万元 | | | 盈利：13,682.62 | | 万元 | | | 比上年同期增长：50.56%–83.15% | | | | | | | 归属于上市公司股 东的扣除非经常性 | 盈利：20,588.20 万元 | 万元–25,048.20 | | 盈利：13,400.89 | | 万元 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries continues to show a slowdown trend. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,695 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the position of the main contract is 402,890 lots, up 35,080 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 76,228 lots, up 2,828 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,229 lots, down 315 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon is 5 yuan, up 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract is 305 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the DMC spot price is 10,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kilogram, up 0.72 US dollars; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,179.3 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.41%, up 1.17 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 117,000 tons, up 16,450 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 7,624.27 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - There are frequent rumors in the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets, but they are not confirmed and need further tracking. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1st [2]. 3.7 Supply - side Analysis - The spot price of industrial silicon has risen significantly this period. The fertilizer subsidy policy in the Ili region of the Northwest remains stable. Large - scale production enterprises have no news of production cuts or shutdowns. The production cost in the Southwest region has decreased. The resumption of production in Baoshan is positive, but the scale in Nujiang and Dehong is lower than expected. Sichuan manufacturers mainly focus on ensuring supply and relying on self - owned power plants, with no significant increase in the overall operating rate [2]. 3.8 Demand - side Analysis - The downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy. In the organic silicon market, the spot price has increased, and production profits have recovered, supporting the demand for industrial silicon. In the polysilicon segment, mainstream enterprises have cut production, and downstream photovoltaic demand has declined, reducing the demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, with inventory increasing and prices flat, and it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon [2].

7月14日，国内期市有色金属板块涨幅居前。其中，工业硅期货主力合约开盘报8460.0元/吨，今日盘中 高位震荡运行；截至发稿，工业硅主力最高触及8740.0元，下方探低8350.0元，涨幅达2.85%附近。 目前来看，工业硅行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于工业硅后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 广州期货指出，反内卷效果显著，下游多晶硅大幅上调报价，其利润得到明显修复，市场预期对原料工 业硅采购压价情绪或有所缓解，进而带动工业硅市场情绪改善，在库存压力并未进一步增加情况下，短 期或仍有支撑。但西南丰水期背景下，后续南方工厂套保意愿或逐步增强，对反弹高度存在压制。策略 上，波段操作思路，主力合约参考区间（8000，9000）。 中辉期货表示，强预期VS弱现实，成本端焦煤反弹对工业硅形成支撑。基本面尚未出现实质性改善， 高库存压制上方反弹空间。价格波动剧烈谨慎追涨【8240-8550】。 瑞达期货（002961）分析称，从供应端来看，本期工业硅现货价格大幅上行，当前西北伊犁地区的化肥 补贴政策仍保持稳定执行，暂无显著调整；大型生产企业未传出减产或停产的相关消息。西南区域生产 成本有所下降，其中保 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market is expected to be supported by a situation of increasing supply and demand. Although industrial inventories are accumulating, they remain at a low level, and consumption expectations are positive. The report suggests light - position short - term long trading at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract showed a weak and volatile trend on the weekly line, with a weekly change of - 1.62% and an amplitude of 2.52%. As of the end of the week, the main contract closed at 78,430 yuan/ton [4] - **International Situation**: The Fed's June meeting minutes showed that officials were divided on interest - rate cuts, with three main camps: cutting rates this year but excluding July (the mainstream), keeping rates unchanged throughout the year, and advocating immediate action at the next meeting [4] - **Domestic Situation**: The Ministry of Commerce responded that the US Commerce Secretary might meet with Chinese negotiators in early August, and the two sides are maintaining close communication on economic and trade concerns at multiple levels [4] - **Fundamentals**: The TC spot index of copper concentrates continued to operate in the negative range, and port inventories decreased. The supply of concentrates is expected to be tight in the long - term, and the cost - side support for copper prices remains. On the supply side, the price of by - product sulfuric acid is favorable, and the resumption of some smelters after environmental inspections and the ramping - up of new production capacity have increased production willingness and actual output. On the demand side, the US plan to impose large - scale tariffs on copper has adjusted the international trade flow of copper. The decline in copper prices has stimulated downstream inventory building in China, and domestic macro - policies have strengthened consumption expectations [4] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Market**: As of July 11, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 290 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 515 yuan/ton. The main contract was priced at 78,430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 178,682 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 37,056 lots. The inter - month spread of the main contract was 230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 200 yuan/ton [10][13] - **Spot Market**: As of July 11, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,075 yuan/ton [13] - **Options Market**: As of July 11, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money options of the Shanghai copper main contract fell below the 50th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.5950, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0954 [27] - **Premium and Position**: As of the latest data, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 62 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 1,607 lots, a decrease of 10,625 lots from last week [22] 3. Industrial Situation Upstream - **Prices and Fees**: The quotes of upstream copper mines weakened, and the processing fees of blister copper remained flat [28] - **Imports and Spreads**: As of May 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ores and concentrates was 2.3952 million tons, a decrease of 0.5098 million tons from April, a decline of 17.55% and a year - on - year increase of 6.59%. The spread between refined and scrap copper (tax - included) was 1,022.99 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 693.43 yuan/ton [34] - **Production and Inventory**: As of April 2025, the monthly global output of copper concentrates was 1,909 thousand tons, a decrease of 59 thousand tons from March, a decline of 3%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 79.2%, unchanged from March. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 440,000 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons from the previous period [39] Supply - Side - **Refined Copper Production**: As of May 2025, the monthly output of refined copper in China was 1.254 million tons, unchanged from April and a year - on - year increase of 15.15%. As of April 2025, the global monthly output of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,365 thousand tons, a decrease of 55 thousand tons from March, a decline of 2.27%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 82.3%, an increase of 0.3% from March [41] - **Refined Copper Imports**: As of May 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 292,694.313 tons, a decrease of 7,487.63 tons from April, a decline of 2.49% and a year - on - year decline of 15.64%. The import profit and loss was - 219.98 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 231.23 yuan/ton [49][50] - **Inventory**: As of the latest data, the total inventory of LME increased by 10,700 tons week - on - week, the total inventory of COMEX increased by 9,687 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,000 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 148,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons [53] Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of May 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.096 million tons, an increase of 0.015 million tons from April, an increase of 0.72%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from April, a decline of 2.27% and a year - on - year decline of 15.69% [59] - **Applications**: As of May 2025, the cumulative investment completion in power grids and power sources increased by 19.8% and 0.39% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 1.6%, 1.6%, - 3.3%, 0.6%, and - 9.2% year - on - year respectively. The cumulative investment in real estate development was 362.3384 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% and a month - on - month increase of 30.67%. The cumulative output of integrated circuits was 193.46 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% and a month - on - month increase of 28.21% [65][71] Overall - **Global Supply - Demand**: As of April 2025, according to ICSG statistics, the global refined copper market had a supply gap of - 50 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 193,600 tons [76]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Macro Market Weekly Report" [2] - Report Date: July 11, 2025 - Author: Liao Hongbin - Investment Consulting License Number: Z0020723 - Contact Phone: 4008 - 8787 - 66 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The A - share market showed positive performance this week, with major indices rising collectively, and small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The bond market weakened due to the strengthening of the equity market, but the bullish foundation of the bond market remains supported in the short term. The commodity market faces pressure from factors such as US tariff policies and domestic deflation, but supply reduction expectations may provide some support. The dollar rebounded slightly, and the euro - dollar exchange rate was affected by factors such as tariff negotiations and inflation [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions Stocks - A - share major indices rose collectively this week, with the ChiNext Index rising over 2%. The four stock index futures also rose collectively. The market's reaction to Trump's new tariff announcement was dull, and the release of June inflation data and positive corporate earnings pre - announcements were positive for the market. Market trading activity increased slightly compared to last week. Allocation suggestion: cautious waiting and seeing [6]. Bonds - Bond futures weakened this week. The recent strength of the equity market suppressed bond market sentiment, but the weak economic fundamentals, balanced and loose liquidity, and low inflation provide support for the bond market. Allocation suggestion: cautious waiting and seeing [6]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index fell by 0.33%, while the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index rose by 1.02%. US tariff policies and domestic deflation pressure suppress commodity demand, but supply reduction expectations due to domestic over - capacity reduction policies may support prices. Allocation suggestion: buy on dips [7][8]. Foreign Exchange - The euro - dollar exchange rate declined. The dollar rebounded slightly due to strong non - farm data and the passage of the tax - cut bill, while the euro area faces complex tariff situations and inflation trends. Allocation suggestion: cautious waiting and seeing [7]. 3.2 Important News and Events Domestic News - China's retirees' basic pensions achieved a "21 - year consecutive increase", with an overall adjustment level of 2% of the 2024 monthly per - capita basic pension. The "14th Five - Year Plan" economic increment is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, and this year's economic aggregate is expected to reach about 140 trillion yuan. The State Council issued policies to support stable employment, and Premier Li Qiang met with the WTO Director - General [16]. International News - The Fed's June meeting minutes showed a dovish signal, and the probability of a rate cut increased slightly. Trump announced new tariff policies on multiple countries, and many countries responded, with some expressing regret and others threatening counter - measures [12][18]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - China's June CPI annual rate was 0.1%, ending four consecutive months of decline, and the PPI annual rate was - 3.6%. In the US, the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending July 5 was 227,000. In the UK, the May three - month GDP monthly rate was 0.5%, and the manufacturing and industrial output monthly rates were negative. Germany's May industrial output monthly rate was 1.2%, and France's June CPI monthly rate was 0.4%. Japan's May trade deficit was 522.336 billion yen [13][19]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data will be released in multiple countries, including China's June export and import annual rates in US dollars, social consumer goods retail sales, and industrial added value; the US's June CPI, PPI, and retail sales; the UK's June CPI and unemployment rate; and Japan's June core CPI [84].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Market Drivers**: In the short - term, the precious metals market is driven by policy expectations and risk - aversion sentiment. The progress of tariff negotiations and the Fed's policy path are key variables. In the medium - to long - term, the supporting logic for precious metals remains unchanged due to factors like fiscal deficit monetization risks in the US [8]. - **Gold Outlook**: Short - term, gold may see increased safe - haven demand if tariff agreements are not reached by August 1st; otherwise, it may continue to fluctuate. The Fed's policy and real interest rates will dominate price movements. Long - term, factors such as the US fiscal deficit and dollar credit risks support gold [8]. - **Silver Outlook**: Silver has been strong recently, supported by long - term supply - demand tightness. However, there is short - term callback pressure due to uncertain inflation prospects and reduced speculative long positions [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Performance**: Gold prices fluctuated this week. Threats of new tariffs by Trump initially pushed up gold, but the rebound of the dollar and rising US Treasury yields limited the upside. Later, improved economic data and profit - taking by some long - positions pressured gold. The Fed's mixed signals also increased price volatility. Silver has been relatively strong, but there is short - term callback pressure [8]. - **Fund Flows**: Global gold ETFs added $38 billion in the first half of the year, and central bank gold purchases continued. However, CFTC speculative net long positions declined, indicating intensified short - term capital games [8]. - **Outlook**: Short - term, the market is driven by policy and risk - aversion. Medium - to long - term, the supporting factors for precious metals remain [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of July 11, 2025, COMEX silver rose 2.51% to $38.015 per ounce, and Shanghai silver futures rose 1.07% to 9040 yuan per kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.02% to $3343.7 per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures fell 0.25% to 773.56 yuan per gram [11]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of July 10, 2025, SLV silver ETF holdings increased 0.3% to 14,890 tons, and SPDR gold ETF holdings increased 0.1% to 948.81 tons [16]. - **COMEX Positions**: As of July 1, 2025, COMEX gold total positions rose 0.62% and net positions rose 3.58%. COMEX silver total positions fell 6.33% and net positions rose 0.72% [21]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of July 1, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased 1% and non - commercial short positions decreased 7.24% [26]. - **Basis**: As of July 10, 2025, the gold basis rose 25.68% to - 4.08 yuan per gram, and the silver basis rose 41.18% to - 20 yuan per kilogram [29]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, 2025, COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased, while Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver inventories increased [34]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand - **Silver Industry**: As of May 2025, Chinese silver imports decreased by 2.46%, while silver ore imports increased by 10.54%. In May 2025, the monthly output of integrated circuits increased by 11.5% [40][45]. - **Silver Supply - Demand**: In 2024, silver industrial demand rose 4%, coin and bar demand fell 22%, and ETF net investment demand turned positive. Total demand fell 3%. Supply increased 2%, and the supply - demand gap decreased by 26% [51][55]. - **Gold Industry**: As of July 10, 2025, gold recycling and jewelry prices decreased slightly [61]. - **Gold Supply - Demand**: In Q1 2025, gold industrial demand increased, investment demand increased by 71.93%, jewelry demand decreased by 10.47%, and total demand increased by 7.12% [67]. 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - **Macroeconomic Data**: This week, the US dollar index rose, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was flat, the 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility decreased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio continued to rise. The 10 - year break - even inflation rate in the US declined slightly [69][74][77]. - **Central Bank Actions**: In July 2025, the Chinese central bank increased its gold reserves by about 1.86 tons for the eighth consecutive month [81].

瑞达期货研究院 关 注 微信服 务 号 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况及期权 4、期股关联 「 周度要点小结」 「2025.07.11」 苹果市场周报 低库存提供支撑，价格延续震荡略偏强 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018457 行情回顾：本周苹果期货2510价格上涨，周度上涨0.97%。 行情展望：新季苹果方面，据Mysteel统计根据套袋量调研数据初步预计全国苹果 产量为3736.64万吨，较2024-2025产季增加85.93万吨，增幅2.35%。根据 Mysteel数据，截至2025年7月9日，全国主产区苹果冷库库存量为91.49万吨，环 比上周减少7.81万吨，走货速度环比上周变动不大，同比去年同期仍偏慢。山东产 区库容比为13.21%，较上周减少0.77%，去库速度同比减慢。陕西产区库容比为 5.72%，较上周减少0.71%，走货较上周表现略快。总体来说，夏季消暑水果大量 上市，冲击苹果需求，走货速度放缓，不过当前库存处于五年同期低位，对价格 具有较强支撑，仍以震荡略偏弱走势看待。后续继续关注产量情况。 策略建议：操 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2430 in the short term [7] - Market review: This week, the spot price of the domestic port methanol market declined. The market was constrained by weak terminal demand, with insufficient upward momentum. The overall production of methanol decreased slightly, and enterprise and port inventories changed. The olefin industry's overall operation increased slightly this week and may continue to rise next week [8] - Market outlook: The domestic methanol output will continue to decline slightly. The port methanol inventory may accumulate slightly, and the olefin industry's operating rate may continue to increase slightly [8] Group 2: Futures Market - Futures price: This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.21% [11] - Inter - period spread: As of July 11, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 73 [16] - Warehouse receipts: As of July 10, there were 8720 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, an increase of 65 compared to last week [23] Group 3: Spot Market - Domestic price: As of July 11, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2380 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1990 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 390 yuan/ton, down 62.5 yuan/ton from last week [29] - Foreign price: As of July 10, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 277 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 58 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars/ton from last week [35] - Basis: As of July 11, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 10 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from last week [39] Group 4: Industry Chain Upstream - Coal and gas price: As of July 9, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 660 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of July 10, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.37 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.4 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [42] Industry - Production and utilization rate: As of July 10, China's methanol production was 1,909,928 tons, a decrease of 77,148 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.89% [46] - Inventory: As of July 9, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 718,900 tons, an increase of 45,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 356,900 tons, an increase of 0.46 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.31%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 221,200 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 8.29% [49] - Import: In May 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.2923 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.06%; from January to May 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 3.3694 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.43%. As of July 10, the methanol import profit was 21.44 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan/ton from last week [53] Downstream - Operating rate: As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 85.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55% [56] - Profit: As of July 11, the domestic methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 841 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.7 yuan/ton from last week [60]

Group 1 - The main contract for silicon iron futures experienced a rapid decline, reaching a low of 5454.00 yuan, closing at 5460.00 yuan with a drop of 1.30% [1] - The market sentiment is influenced by macroeconomic factors and cost support, with both silicon and manganese silicon prices showing an upward trend since mid-June, with silicon iron up 7.8% and manganese silicon up 6.1% [2] - The current market is characterized by "emotion-driven highs with demand support still present," indicating a cautious approach is necessary as prices have reached the hedging range for manufacturers [2] Group 2 - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting emphasized the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which is expected to improve commodity sentiment [3] - The production profits for ferroalloys are currently negative, with losses reported at -310 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia and -250 yuan/ton in Ningxia [3] - Technical analysis indicates that the 4-hour K-line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, suggesting a bullish outlook, but investors are advised to exercise risk control [3]