（来源：TradingView） 昨夜今晨，近几天命途多舛的软件板块和加密货币再度迎来新一轮的下挫。疲软的美国就业数据也令过去几天的"板块轮动"戛然而止，抛售范围扩大到整个 市场。 截至收盘，标普500指数跌1.23%，报6798.4点；纳斯达克综合指数跌1.59%，报22540.59点，也是自去年4月以来最严重的三日抛售；道琼斯工业平均指数跌 1.2%，报48908.72点。比特币盘中跌破6.4万美元，近半年缩水近一半；现货白银也出现了单日下跌近20%的状况。 前几个交易日，美股的下跌局限在AI和软件相关的板块，周四抛售范围进一步扩大。标普500成分股中有318只个股下跌，部分原因在于最新劳动力市场数 据疲软。其中美国12月职位空缺意外下降至2020年以来的最低水平。挑战者裁员人数创下自2009年衰退最严重时期以来的1月最高纪录。 安联首席经济顾问Mohamed El-Erian表示："值得注意的是，这些裁员发生在GDP仍以约 4%速度增长的情况下，加速了就业与经济增长的脱钩——如果这一 现象持续下去，将产生深远的经济、政治和社会影响。" 周四收盘后，标普500指数又一次踩在100日均线上。令市场感到焦心的 ...

"一申请，平台就自动退款！"过去5年，"仅退款"四个字，承载了千万中小商家的愤怒与无奈，也见证 了中国电商从流量狂欢到乱象滋生的过往。 近日落地施行的《网络交易平台规则监督管理办法》，明确禁止平台强制商家接受恶意"仅退款"……从 头部平台到监管层面，一场针对恶意"仅退款"的集体围剿，正在宣告一个草莽时代的落幕。 规则漏洞损害商家利益 深圳商报记者 任建新 2026年开春，电商江湖的一场"反内卷"风暴正式席卷全场。 2021年，"仅退款"机制首次亮相电商行业，初衷带着朴素的商业善意。 彼时，生鲜电商崛起，果蔬、水产等商品易腐烂、易损耗，一旦出现轻微瑕疵，退货物流成本往往远超 商品本身价值——一箱售价20元的草莓，退货运费可能还要加10-20元，无论是消费者还是商家，都不 愿为这笔"亏本买卖"买单。 在此背景下，"仅退款"应运而生：消费者无需退回商品，即可获得全额或部分退款，既降低了消费者的 维权成本，也减少了商家的退货损耗，成为降低社会总成本的最优解。 然而，随着电商行业进入存量竞争阶段，"用户留存"成为平台的核心KPI，而"极致售后体验"则成为平 台争夺用户的核心筹码。"仅退款"这一便民机制，被平台简单粗暴地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The major internet companies Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, and ByteDance are engaged in a "red envelope war" as they prepare for the 2026 Spring Festival, with significant cash giveaways aimed at gaining user engagement and establishing dominance in the AI sector [2][6]. Group 1: Cash Red Envelope Initiatives - Tencent announced a 10 billion yuan cash red envelope campaign starting February 1, 2026, while Baidu launched a 5 billion yuan initiative on the same day [2][4]. - Alibaba's Qianwen APP revealed a massive 30 billion yuan "Spring Festival Treat Plan" on February 2, 2026, marking its largest investment in a Spring Festival campaign [4]. - Users can participate in Tencent's red envelope activities by logging in daily, completing tasks, and sharing links, with the potential to win significant cash prizes [3][4]. Group 2: AI Integration and User Engagement - The red envelope campaigns are seen as a strategy to test user engagement with AI applications, marking a shift from previous marketing tactics that focused solely on cash giveaways [6][9]. - Industry experts suggest that the effectiveness of these campaigns will depend on the quality and usability of the AI products offered, rather than just the cash incentives [9][10]. - The competition is characterized by each company's focus on integrating their core business strengths, with Tencent leveraging social features, Alibaba focusing on a comprehensive ecosystem, and Baidu enhancing search functionalities [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Implications for AI Market - The ongoing "red envelope war" is viewed as a significant event in the AI landscape, potentially accelerating the adoption and application of AI technologies across various sectors [8]. - Analysts predict that the competition will lead to a more profound integration of AI into everyday life, with companies needing to address real user needs to ensure long-term retention [10]. - The AI market in China is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a core industry scale surpassing 900 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a 24% year-on-year increase [10].

Core Viewpoint - The current "red envelope war" among internet giants has shifted from mobile payments to artificial intelligence, with significant financial investments aimed at establishing the next generation of "super traffic entrances" that will shape the competitive landscape for the next decade [1][2]. Group 1: Company Strategies - Tencent has launched the "Shangyuanbao" initiative with a budget of 1 billion yuan, following its previous 500 million yuan investment during the 2015 Spring Festival [1]. - Alibaba's "Qianwen" has announced a 3 billion yuan investment for its "Spring Festival Treat Plan," integrating various services within its ecosystem [1]. - Baidu and ByteDance are also participating, with Baidu embedding its AI assistant into its app and offering 500 million yuan in cash rewards, while ByteDance collaborates with the Spring Festival Gala as the exclusive AI cloud partner [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The competition for AI as a new traffic entrance is driven by the maturity of large models capable of handling complex tasks, and a substantial user base that supports AI's market foundation [3]. - By June 2025, the user base for generative AI in China is projected to reach 515 million, with a penetration rate of 36.5% [3]. - The saturation of mobile internet traffic and stagnant user engagement has prompted internet giants to seek new avenues for traffic [3]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The current battle for AI traffic entrances is reminiscent of past browser and mobile app wars, with AI agents capable of aggregating traffic, data, and transactions, potentially leading to a "winner-takes-all" scenario [3][4]. - The development of a super entrance requires advanced model capabilities, vast computational power, data, ecosystem integration, and scenario refinement, favoring major internet players [4]. Group 4: Opportunities for Smaller Players - Smaller players can still find opportunities by integrating with major models and creating plugins or skills that can be frequently utilized by mainstream AI agents [5]. - The emergence of the AI agent economy is expected to create a trillion-dollar software and service market by 2030, with significant online consumption growth [5]. Group 5: Impact on Businesses - The shift in traffic entrances poses both challenges and opportunities for ordinary businesses, as AI agents may favor recommending self-operated or leading brands, potentially marginalizing smaller businesses [6]. - Businesses that adapt to become "AI-friendly" and utilize free AI tools may gain a competitive edge in the new market landscape [6].

Core Insights - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for the AI agent industry, with significant policy developments, accelerated actions from tech giants, and increased capital market investments [1][3] - There are differing opinions on the current state of competition in the AI agent space, with some believing that leading players like ByteDance and Alibaba have initiated a peak competition, while others argue that the market is still in its infancy due to technological limitations and ecosystem challenges [1][5] Investment Trends - The popularity of AI agents is reflected in capital movements, with five out of the top ten investment sectors in 2025 being directly related to AI agents [3] - Approximately 20% of new unicorns are centered around AI technology, indicating a crowded and competitive landscape with over 120 domestic AI agent platforms [3][4] AI Agent Maturity Levels - AI agents can be categorized into three levels: "basic" agents for simple tasks, "upgraded" agents capable of more complex operations, and future "complete" agents that may operate autonomously like humans [3][4] - Currently, most domestic AI agents are still at the "basic" level, performing tasks such as PPT creation and translation, with only a few, like Doubao and Qianwen, reaching the "upgraded" level [4][5] Competitive Landscape - The competitive hierarchy is emerging, with ByteDance and Alibaba leading as "seed players" capable of providing comprehensive solutions, followed by specialized players and those offering technical tools [7] - The Chinese AI agent market is expected to be dominated by large enterprises, which will hold about 80% market share due to their clear business needs and data foundations [7] Advantages of Leading Players - ByteDance and Alibaba's competitive edge stems from their self-developed large models, extensive ecosystems, and profitable products that can be scaled [8][11] - Alibaba's ecosystem is seen as a "super entrance" for activating its vast commercial network, while ByteDance leverages its traffic advantages through platforms like Douyin and TikTok [11][12] Challenges Faced by Leading Players - Despite their advantages, both companies face challenges: Alibaba's ecosystem is heavily reliant on its own platforms, limiting cross-platform collaboration, while ByteDance's late entry into the market has resulted in a lack of deep industry knowledge [12][14] - The competition is fierce, with predictions that 90% of AI agents may be overshadowed by large models, making it difficult for smaller players to compete [13] Market Dynamics - The AI agent market is characterized by a complex and broad landscape, suggesting that no single company can dominate entirely, leading to a multi-track, differentiated competition [18] - While ByteDance and Alibaba currently lead, there remains room for other players to carve out niches in vertical markets and through technological differentiation [18]

证券之星消息，2月5日南向资金减持760.36万股阿里巴巴-W（09988.HK）。近5个交易日中，获南向资金减持的有4天，累计净减持1522.26万股。 近20个交易日中，获南向资金增持的有12天，累计净增持167.19万股。截至目前，南向资金持有阿里巴巴-W（09988.HK）22.12亿股，占公司已发 行普通股的11.57%。 阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司提供技术基础设施及营销平台。该公司运营七个业务分部。中国商业分部包括中国零售商业业务如淘宝、天猫、盒马 等以及批发业务。国际商业分部包括国际零售及批发商业业务，如Lazada、速卖通等。本地生活服务分部包括基于位置业务，如饿了么、高德、 飞猪等。菜鸟分部包括国内及国际一站式物流服务及供应链管理解决方案。云业务分部包括向国内外企业提供公有云服务和混合云服务，如阿里 云及钉钉。数字媒体及娱乐分部包括优酷、夸克和阿里影业，以及其他内容和分销平台以及线上游戏业务。创新业务及其他分部包括达摩院、天 猫精灵及其他业务。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 | 交易日 | 持股总数( ...

揭牌仪式结束后，现场还举办了专项业务培训会，1688平台专家与企业代表围绕数字化转型、供应链优化等议题展开深入交流。与会企业纷纷表示，运营 中心的成立将为其带来更精准的资源对接和更务实的服务支持，有助于破解发展难题，拓展市场空间。 此次揭牌仪式，不仅彰显了菏泽在电商领域的扎实基础与创新活力，也为县域产业与互联网平台深度融合树立了新标杆。未来，市县将继续携手阿里巴巴 1688平台，以产业带运营中心为纽带，推动更多企业融入数字化发展浪潮，共同谱写电商产业高质量发展的崭新篇章。 菏泽市商务局党组成员、副局长曹先银在致辞中表示，此次揭牌意义非凡，它不仅是物理空间的落成，更是战略支点的确立，标志着阿里与菏泽曹县的合 作从线上资源链接，迈向线下服务深度融合的新阶段，将把1688平台的技术、数据、金融等优质资源，精准输送到企业"家门口"，是数实融合的生动实 践，更是菏泽抢抓新经济机遇的关键举措。市商务局将一如既往地关注和支持曹县电商产业的发展，政企平台三方同心同向、协力共进，共同将曹县产业 带运营中心建设好、运营好，为全市电子商务高质量发展和现代化产业体系建设注入新的强劲动能。 曹县县委常委、宣传部部长王倩表示，此次产业带 ...

Core Insights - The competition among internet giants has shifted from mobile payments to artificial intelligence, with significant investments in AI-related initiatives and user engagement strategies [1][2] Group 1: Investment and Initiatives - Tencent launched the "Shangyuanbao, distributing 1 billion" campaign, marking a significant investment in user engagement during the Spring Festival, following a previous 500 million yuan investment in 2015 [1] - Alibaba's "Qianwen" announced a 3 billion yuan investment for its "Spring Festival Treat Plan," integrating various services within its ecosystem [1] - Baidu and ByteDance also participated, with Baidu embedding its AI assistant into its app and offering 500 million yuan in cash rewards, while ByteDance partnered with the Spring Festival Gala as the exclusive AI cloud partner [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current AI competition is driven by the need for new traffic sources as mobile internet growth stagnates, with AI seen as the next major entry point for user engagement [2] - By 2025, the user base for generative AI in China is projected to reach 515 million, with a penetration rate of 36.5%, indicating a strong market foundation for AI applications [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The battle for AI as a traffic entry point is reminiscent of past tech rivalries, with the potential for AI to aggregate traffic, data, and transactions, thus enhancing the competitive advantage for those who control these entry points [2][3] - The development of a super entry point requires advanced model capabilities, vast computational resources, and effective ecosystem integration, favoring major internet players over smaller competitors [3] Group 4: Opportunities for Smaller Players - Smaller players can still find opportunities by integrating with major AI models and creating plugins or skills that can be frequently utilized by mainstream AI agents [4] - The emergence of the AI agent economy is expected to create a trillion-dollar market by 2030, presenting new avenues for innovation and revenue generation [4] Group 5: Impact on Businesses - The shift in traffic entry points poses both challenges and opportunities for ordinary businesses, as AI agents may favor larger brands, potentially marginalizing smaller players [5][6] - Businesses that adapt to become "AI-friendly" and utilize available AI tools may gain a competitive edge in the evolving market landscape [6]

Group 1 - Major AI companies are engaging in a competitive "red envelope" marketing strategy, with Tencent investing 1 billion yuan, Baidu 500 million yuan, and Alibaba 3 billion yuan [2][3] - This competition is reminiscent of the early days of mobile payment wars, indicating a significant escalation in the battle for AI application dominance [3][4] - Tencent's strategy is seen as a critical move, especially after the appointment of a former OpenAI researcher, which has reportedly improved its AI model capabilities [4][5] Group 2 - Alibaba's investment in its Qianwen AI platform signifies a shift from being a support role to a central player in its ecosystem, indicating a strategic pivot [3][4] - The "red envelope" strategy is viewed as an effective market education tool and a pressure test for the nascent AI industry [5][6] - Despite the initial success in attracting users, the long-term challenge remains in retaining and engaging these users effectively [6]

Core Insights - The AI red envelope competition during the Spring Festival has sparked widespread public participation, with companies like Baidu, Tencent, and Alibaba investing billions in cash to attract users and talent [1][2] Group 1: Company Strategies - Baidu initiated a 500 million yuan red envelope plan, allowing users to share in cash rewards while using its AI assistant, Wenxin, which attracted over 50 million participants within a week [1][2] - Tencent doubled its red envelope pool to 1 billion yuan and aims to recreate the success of WeChat red envelopes by directly returning saved marketing budgets to users [2] - Alibaba's Qianwen announced a 3 billion yuan "Spring Festival Treat" plan, offering not only cash but also services like movie tickets and meal bookings, integrating various Alibaba ecosystem services [2] Group 2: User Engagement and Market Potential - The user base for generative AI in China has reached 515 million, with a penetration rate of 36.5%, indicating a significant untapped market [2] - Major AI applications like Baidu's Wenxin, ByteDance's Doubao, Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen, and Tencent's Yuanbao have all surpassed 100 million monthly active users, highlighting the competitive landscape [2] - Experts suggest that while cash incentives can attract initial users, long-term engagement requires multiple interactions to develop habitual usage, warning against the risk of creating "zombie users" [2][3] Group 3: User Experience and Retention Challenges - Baidu's approach of embedding Wenxin within its existing app, which has 700 million monthly active users, reduces barriers for user engagement [3] - The effectiveness of AI red envelopes depends on the perceived utility of the application; if users find the AI unhelpful, they may disengage after claiming rewards [3] - Retaining users post-promotion will depend on the quality and uniqueness of AI functionalities, as companies face the challenge of maintaining user loyalty beyond initial cash incentives [3]