以下文章来源于华商韬略 ，作者华商韬略 华商韬略 . 聚焦标杆与热点、解构趋势与韬略 不再像自己，但也不像瑞幸。 作者：陈乐高 来源：华商韬略出品（ID：hstl8888） 这是入华25年来，星巴克第一次直接大规模降价。 6月10日，星巴克对旗下星冰乐、冰摇茶、茶拿铁三大非咖系列产品，做了一轮价格下调，调整后，多款饮 品价格回到了20元以下。 忘掉自己 这一切背后的动因，是中国市场剧烈震荡的业绩。 2024财年，星巴克中国营业收入约210.55亿元，同比下降1.4%，同店销售额同比下降8%，而这还是中国市 场调整后反弹的结果。 事实上改变早已开始，在最近五六年，除了门口的绿色美人鱼商标，星巴克亲手摘掉的金科玉律，远不止 于此。 第三空间，是星巴克极力打造的一种体验。在它看来，生活在大城市快节奏生活中的人，在家庭和职场 外，还应该有一个获得松弛感的栖息之所。 为了这个体验，星巴克管住的不止是三明治，还有家具材质、屋顶灯光、店内音乐，甚至是店员和顾客的 交流方式。 但随着互联网商业时代的到来，空间的传统被打破了。 2019年，星巴克推出了主打"在线点，到店取"的"啡快"服务，又很快全面接入阿里巴巴的商业平台。 当 ...

Core Insights - The coffee shop industry experienced significant growth in May, with a total of 1,792 new stores opened, representing a month-on-month increase of 24.62% and a year-on-year increase of 53.03% [1][4] - The total number of coffee shops reached 62,916, with a month-on-month growth of 3.50%, indicating that the growth in new openings may be accompanied by adjustments in existing stores [1][4] - Leading brands such as Luckin Coffee, Kudi Coffee, and Lucky Coffee contributed significantly to the new openings, accounting for 83.93% of the total new stores in May [4][5] Brand Performance - Luckin Coffee opened 785 new stores in May, a 76.80% increase from April, maintaining its position as the market leader [4][5] - Kudi Coffee saw the fastest growth with 419 new stores, while Lucky Coffee opened 300 stores, maintaining its previous month's count [4][5] - Starbucks opened 34 new stores, reflecting a 70% month-on-month increase, but its existing store count only grew by 0.36%, indicating a strategic adjustment in store layout [8] Product Innovation - A total of 85 new SKUs were launched across 27 brands in May, with Lucky Coffee leading with 14 new products [8][10] - The focus of new product development has shifted towards refreshing flavors suitable for summer, with an emphasis on fruit and sparkling coffee beverages [11][12] - Brands are increasingly extending their product lines to include non-coffee beverages to capture a share of the afternoon tea market, with notable launches from Luckin and Kudi [11][12] Marketing Strategies - The coffee industry is witnessing a shift from aggressive co-branding to a focus on product quality and uniqueness, with a total of 14 co-branding activities in May, a decrease from previous months [12] - Brands are prioritizing the alignment of co-branding partners with their market positioning, as seen in collaborations like Starbucks with Mayday and NOWWA with Miraculous [12] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with domestic leading brands leveraging their scale and innovation capabilities, while international brands and smaller players are adjusting their strategies for survival and growth [12]

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,980, down 0.34% for the day but up 40.67% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the US remained unchanged, with year-to-date increases of 26.48% and 31.24% respectively [1] - The DAX in Germany fell by 1.30%, while the Nikkei 225 in Japan rose by 0.59% [1] Sector Performance in Hong Kong - The Hang Seng Financial Index decreased by 0.70% for the day, but is up 43.08% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index fell by 0.25%, showing a year-to-date decline of 4.70% [2] - The Hang Seng Utilities Index increased slightly by 0.11%, with a year-to-date gain of 11.26% [2] Chinese Stock Market Trends - The Chinese stock market experienced a pullback, with healthcare, energy, and consumer staples sectors leading the decline [3] - A-shares in biopharmaceuticals and media saw significant drops, while coal and utilities sectors rose [3] - The People's Bank of China is expected to reduce its quantitative tightening (QT) measures starting in Q2 of next year, impacting bond yields [3] Oil and Commodity Market Insights - Rising tensions in the Middle East have led to a spike in oil prices, although the medium-term outlook for oil remains pessimistic due to expected oversupply [3] - The International Energy Agency forecasts global oil production to rise to 104.9 million barrels per day by 2025, while demand is projected to decrease to 103.8 million barrels per day [3] Focus Stocks and Investment Recommendations - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 24.00, representing a potential upside of 47% [4] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) is also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 40.61, indicating an 18% upside [4] - Tencent (700 HK) has a target price of 660.00, suggesting a 29% potential increase from its current price [4]

Group 1: Stock Recommendations - Geely Automobile (175 HK) has a target price of 24.00, representing a potential upside of 46% with a P/E ratio of 16.42[5] - XPeng Motors (XPEV US) has a target price of 28.00, indicating a potential upside of 50% with a P/E ratio of 18.65[5] - Sany International (631 HK) has a target price of 8.70, suggesting a potential upside of 28% with a P/E ratio of 6.82[5] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) has a target price of 40.61, indicating a potential upside of 15% with a P/E ratio of 35.30[5] - Tencent (700 HK) has a target price of 660.00, representing a potential upside of 30% with a P/E ratio of 509.50[5] Group 2: Performance Overview - The basket of 23 long positions had an average return of 1.1%, outperforming the MSCI China Index which returned 0.7%[9] - Among the 23 stocks, 7 stocks outperformed the benchmark[9] - The report includes a total of 23 stocks with various sectors such as automotive, technology, and healthcare[5]

Industry Insights - Wang Changtian, chairman of Light Media, emphasizes the need to change the profit distribution structure in the film industry, advocating for a shift that favors producers [1] - The film market is moving towards a stagnant phase, making survival difficult for producers, as evidenced by a 51.1% year-on-year decline in the box office for the May Day holiday, totaling 747 million yuan [2] - The overall losses in the film industry exceed 10 billion yuan annually, with many productions facing funding shortages during filming [3] Financial Implications - The lack of external funding has led to a 10% to 20% annual decline in net capital within the industry, as companies rely solely on box office revenues [4] - The box office revenue sharing model heavily favors cinemas, with 52.27% of the box office from "Nezha 2" going to cinemas, highlighting the challenges in adjusting profit-sharing ratios [4] Cinema Performance - Cinemas are also struggling, with average earnings per venue dropping by 47.8% to 325.7 yuan during the May Day holiday, and daily earnings per cinema falling by 52% to 12,000 yuan [5] - The survival of cinemas is crucial for maintaining stable box office revenues, indicating a complex interdependence between producers and cinemas [6] Market Challenges - Wang Changtian's proposal to redistribute profits in the film industry faces significant challenges, as both producers and cinemas are experiencing financial difficulties [7]

Core Insights - Starbucks is facing a comprehensive challenge in China, not only in terms of price competition but also regarding brand value, consumer experience, and cultural recognition [2][32] - The company has announced a price reduction for ten non-coffee beverages, with a decrease of 2-6 yuan, averaging around 5 yuan, marking a significant strategic shift to adapt to local market conditions [3][4] Market Competition Landscape - The Chinese ready-to-drink beverage market is highly competitive, with coffee and tea categories overlapping, leading to pressure from both international and local brands [4][5] - The market for ready-to-drink tea is projected to reach 368.9 billion yuan by 2025, surpassing the coffee market by over 100 billion yuan, with both categories maintaining a growth rate of around 20% [4] Price War Dynamics - Local brands like Luckin Coffee and Kudi are aggressively lowering prices, with strategies such as Luckin's "9.9 yuan" promotions, which have put pressure on Starbucks' mid-to-high-end positioning [5][6] - The shift in consumer habits towards "morning coffee, afternoon tea" has made non-coffee beverages a significant revenue source for Starbucks [6] Consumer Preferences and Brand Perception - Local tea brands are gaining market share in the non-coffee segment due to their closer alignment with local tastes and more approachable pricing [7] - The Z generation shows lower brand loyalty and prefers products with social attributes, which local brands leverage through frequent collaborations [9] Financial Performance and Strategic Adjustments - Starbucks reported a revenue of $739.7 million in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 in China, a 5% year-on-year increase, but faced a 6% decline in same-store sales in the first quarter [10][11] - The company's price adjustment for non-coffee beverages is a rare move, reflecting management's serious assessment of market conditions [12][13] Long-term Challenges and Opportunities - The brand's dual positioning as a "premium coffee brand" and "third space provider" is under scrutiny as price reductions may dilute its high-end image [20][21] - Effective penetration into lower-tier markets is crucial for Starbucks' growth strategy, which faces challenges from local low-cost competitors and varying consumer acceptance of coffee culture [22][23] Digital Transformation and Governance - Starbucks needs to enhance its digital capabilities to remain competitive, particularly in data-driven decision-making and marketing [25][26] - Potential changes in corporate governance, including the possibility of selling stakes in the Chinese business, could impact strategic execution [27][28][29] Conclusion - The competition in China for Starbucks is not merely a price war but a multifaceted challenge involving brand value, consumer experience, and cultural identity [32]

Macro Economic Overview - China's credit situation continues to be driven by government financing, while private sector credit demand remains weak. The growth rate of social financing in May has rebounded due to accelerated issuance of government bonds. However, tariff impacts are dragging down household purchasing, consumption, and corporate capital expenditure, leading to a continuous decline in new RMB loans year-on-year. More policy support is needed to revive private economic recovery momentum [2] - It is expected that the LPR will be further lowered by 10 basis points in the second half of 2025, and the broad fiscal deficit may moderately increase. The central bank is likely to maintain ample liquidity to support credit growth and stabilize the real estate sector, countering the impacts of tariff shocks. If a trade agreement can be reached between China and the US, China may focus on economic rebalancing, increasing fiscal expansion and consumption stimulation, and advancing manufacturing capacity reduction [2][4] Company Analysis Mindray Medical (300760 CH) - Mindray Medical recently held an investor day, focusing on the digital transformation of its equipment business and the expansion strategy of its flow-type business, aiming to build an overall solution covering all departments with "equipment + IT + AI" and "equipment + consumables." Key highlights include the establishment of a digital medical ecosystem based on IT + AI technology across three major production lines [5] - The company’s AI medical layout mainly focuses on emergency, surgery, and critical care, with the launch of a major model for critical care expected in December 2024, aiming to complete installations in over 30 hospitals this year. By the end of 2025, the company plans to release a major model for anesthesia, with specialized models for emergency, cardiovascular, ultrasound, and laboratory expected to be released in the next 1-2 years [5][6] - The automated assembly line is a key breakthrough for the IVD business, with over 200 new installations expected globally in 2024 and around 300 installations anticipated in 2025. The comprehensive IVD layout supports the company’s multi-disciplinary assembly line production, providing cost and iteration efficiency advantages [6][7] Baker Microelectronics (2149 HK) - Baker Microelectronics remains a core recommendation in the semiconductor sector, with a focus on demand prospects, geopolitical uncertainties, and upstream manufacturing resource investment plans. The company has a clear and sustainable growth strategy [8] Adobe (ADBE US) - Adobe reported a 11% year-on-year revenue growth to $5.87 billion for Q2 FY25, with non-GAAP net profit increasing by 7% to $2.17 billion, both in line with consensus expectations. The company raised its FY25 total revenue guidance to $23.5-23.6 billion, primarily driven by strong performance in its digital media business and increased penetration of AI products [8] Focus Stocks - Geely Automobile (175 HK): Buy rating, target price of 24.00 HKD, potential upside of 47% [9] - Xpeng Motors (XPEV US): Buy rating, target price of 28.00 USD, potential upside of 54% [9] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US): Buy rating, target price of 40.61 USD, potential upside of 15% [9] - Tencent (700 HK): Buy rating, target price of 660.00 HKD, potential upside of 29% [9] - Alibaba (BABA US): Buy rating, target price of 155.50 USD, potential upside of 38% [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in sectors such as AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, indicating a rising risk appetite among investors [2][9]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has shown significant improvement in risk appetite, with notable performance in sectors like AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, leading to increased investor interest, especially in small and mid-cap stocks [2][9]. - The report suggests active participation in A+H shares due to observed discount phenomena in IPOs, with a focus on new consumption and manufacturing sectors [2][9]. - There is a sustained bullish outlook on virtual assets and the Web 3.0 market, driven by stablecoin policies and IPOs, with expectations for more regulatory developments in the future [2][9]. - The valuation of overseas Chinese assets remains influenced by US-China trade relations and the broader economic environment, highlighting the need to monitor changes in US tariff policies and domestic economic strategies [2][9]. Industry Tracking Summary 1. Education - The education index decreased by 0.98% from June 9 to June 13, underperforming compared to major indices, with 51talk rising by 12.09% and Thinking Education falling by 11.55% [10][14]. 2. Luxury Goods - The luxury goods sector faced slight pressure, with key stocks like Prada declining by 6.01% while new brands like Shiseido rose by 2.02% during the same period [18][21]. 3. Coffee and Tea - The sector showed stable growth, with individual stocks like Luckin Coffee increasing by 1.87%, while others like Bawang Tea experienced declines [23][27]. 4. E-commerce - The e-commerce sector saw a slight decline, with major players like Alibaba and JD.com facing competitive pressures, while the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index rose by 3.46% [29][34]. 5. Streaming Platforms - The streaming sector outperformed, with Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music showing significant gains, while Netflix experienced a decline [35][38]. 6. Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 5.9%, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices showing slight fluctuations, indicating ongoing interest in virtual assets [42][43].

Core Viewpoint - The coffee market in Jinan is experiencing an intensified price war, with major brands like Starbucks, Luckin Coffee, and Kudi Coffee significantly reducing their prices to attract customers [1][5][11]. Price War Dynamics - The price war has been ongoing for two years, with recent escalations noted in April and June 2023, as Starbucks joined the trend of lowering prices [1][5]. - Starbucks has reduced prices on several non-coffee products by an average of 3-5 yuan, with some items now priced as low as 23 yuan per cup [1][3]. - Luckin Coffee is offering promotional prices, with some drinks available for as low as 6.9 yuan per cup, leading to increased order volumes [3][4]. Market Competition - Jinan's coffee market is highly competitive, with over 2,600 coffee-related enterprises, including 366 established in the past year [9][11]. - The presence of multiple brands, including Starbucks, Luckin, Kudi, and local cafes, contributes to a dense market environment, particularly in commercial areas [9][11]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly price-sensitive, often comparing prices across various platforms before making purchases, with some drinks now cheaper than bottled beverages [5][6]. - The trend of low-priced coffee has attracted new customers who previously did not consume coffee [5][6]. Business Strategies - Kudi Coffee has stated that the 9.9 yuan price point has become a significant price range in the industry, and they plan to maintain this pricing strategy for at least three years [6]. - Industry experts indicate that while low prices may boost sales, they also pose challenges related to supply chain management, service efficiency, and product quality [8][11]. Long-term Outlook - The ongoing price war is reshaping consumer expectations and brand loyalty, with a potential return to rational pricing in the long term [11]. - The industry may face a process of elimination, where only brands that can maintain quality and operational efficiency will survive [11].

Core Viewpoint - The coffee industry is experiencing a significant disruption due to an intense price war among delivery platforms, leading to a stark divide where large coffee chains thrive while small brands and cafes struggle to survive [1][5][10] Group 1: Impact on Large Coffee Chains - Major coffee chains are benefiting from the ongoing delivery subsidy war, with sales volumes skyrocketing. For instance, Kudi Coffee's sales reached 80 million cups on June 2 and surpassed 100 million cups by June 9 [3][4] - The average monthly sales for Luckin Coffee are projected to be 250 million cups, indicating a substantial increase in demand driven by aggressive pricing strategies [3] - The price of fast coffee has dropped significantly, with some products available for as low as 5.9 yuan due to various promotional discounts [2][3] Group 2: Challenges for Small Coffee Brands - Small coffee shops and independent brands are facing severe challenges, with reports of sales halving due to the competitive pricing of larger chains [5][8] - Many small brands are unable to compete with the scale and pricing of major chains, leading to a loss of market share and customer base [8][10] - The cost structure for small coffee shops is unsustainable under the current pricing pressures, with some reporting losses on each cup sold after accounting for delivery fees and marketing subsidies [6][7] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The ongoing subsidy war is reshaping consumer behavior, with many consumers now prioritizing low-cost coffee options over quality [10][13] - The market is witnessing a consolidation phase, where smaller brands may be forced out due to their inability to compete, while larger chains continue to expand their market presence [9][10] - Experts suggest that small brands need to differentiate themselves through unique products and services to survive in this competitive landscape [13]