Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the automotive sector compared to the overall market performance [12]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is gradually returning to its profit center, with a strong focus on overseas expansion [1]. - In Q4 2025, total vehicle production and sales reached 10.186 million and 10.023 million units, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 3.9% and 1.7% [4]. - Domestic retail share of independent brands reached 66.9%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 13.2% year-on-year [4]. - The average industry discount rate decreased by 1.33 percentage points to 12.28% in Q4 2025, indicating reduced terminal discounts [4]. - Traditional raw material prices saw a decline, while new energy raw material prices increased, impacting supply chain profitability [4]. Summary by Sections Vehicle Production and Sales - In Q4 2025, passenger vehicle production and sales were 9.018 million and 8.845 million units, with year-on-year changes of +2.2% and -0.3% respectively [4]. - Commercial vehicle production and sales reached 1.168 million and 1.178 million units, with year-on-year increases of +19.4% and +20.0% [4]. - Exports of vehicles in Q4 2025 totaled 2.147 million units, a significant year-on-year increase of 39.8%, with new energy vehicles showing remarkable growth [4]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the leading position of independent brands in the market, with a notable increase in new energy vehicle sales [4]. - The report notes a divergence in profitability among automakers due to varying new vehicle release schedules and the suspension of trade-in subsidies [4]. Profit Forecasts - The report provides profit forecasts for key automotive companies, indicating significant growth for companies like Jifeng and Dongfang, while others like BYD and Li Auto are expected to see declines [6][8]. - Specific profit growth rates for Q4 2025 show a wide range, with some companies experiencing over 600% growth, while others face substantial losses [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from AI integration and overseas business support, such as BYD and Geely [4]. - It also emphasizes the importance of companies with strong performance in the supply chain, particularly in the context of rising raw material prices [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the overseas pharmaceutical sector, highlighting significant developments and collaborations in the industry [1]. Core Insights - The collaboration between Insilico Medicine and Heng Tai Biologics to develop an innovative brain-penetrating NLRP3 inhibitor is a key highlight, with potential applications in treating central nervous system diseases [2][7]. - The approval of full circulation for Fuhong Hanlin's H shares is noted, which involves a significant number of shares and stakeholders [2][7]. - The report emphasizes the strong revenue growth projections for companies like MicroPort Robotics and King’s Ray Biotech, with expected revenue increases of approximately 110%-120% year-on-year for 2025 [6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Pharmaceuticals - Insilico Medicine and Heng Tai Biologics have entered a partnership to develop ISM8969, a novel oral NLRP3 inhibitor, with a 50% global rights share and potential milestone payments exceeding HKD 500 million [2][7]. - Fuhong Hanlin's H shares have received approval for full circulation, involving 182,645,856 shares, which represents about 33.61% of the company's total issued shares [2][7]. 2. Company Performance Updates - MicroPort Robotics anticipates a revenue increase of 110%-120% for 2025, with adjusted net losses expected to narrow by over 50% [6][10]. - King’s Ray Biotech's joint venture, Legend Biotech, is projected to generate approximately USD 555 million in trade sales for the quarter ending December 31, 2025 [6][10]. 3. Recent Developments in Overseas Pharmaceutical Companies - GSK has reached an agreement to acquire RAPT Therapeutics for approximately USD 2.2 billion, focusing on a long-acting IgE monoclonal antibody currently in clinical trials [3][8]. - Corvus has reported positive results from a Phase I trial of its ITK inhibitor for moderate to severe atopic dermatitis, showing good safety and efficacy [3][9]. - Eli Lilly's FRα ADC has received breakthrough therapy designation from the FDA for treating platinum-resistant ovarian cancer [3][9]. 4. Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring innovative drug companies with active commercialization and business development opportunities, including companies like BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and Fuhong Hanlin [13]. - It also highlights the importance of ongoing clinical progress in innovative pipelines for pharmaceutical companies transitioning towards innovation [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [7][8]. Core Insights - The company plans to raise HKD 2.338 billion through the issuance of convertible bonds with a low interest rate of 0.75%, aimed at optimizing its capital structure and enhancing liquidity [7]. - The company has a strong fleet with an average age of approximately 4.13 years, which contributes to its competitive edge and stable performance [7]. - The company has implemented a high dividend payout policy, including a special dividend plan, which reflects its commitment to shareholder returns [7]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: HKD 3,745 million - 2024: HKD 4,441 million - 2025E: HKD 4,286 million - 2026E: HKD 4,541 million - 2027E: HKD 4,821 million - The revenue growth rates are expected to be 12.37% in 2023 and 18.58% in 2024, with a decline of 3.49% in 2025 [6][8]. - Net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2023: HKD 1,902 million - 2024: HKD 2,106 million - 2025E: HKD 1,969 million - 2026E: HKD 2,179 million - 2027E: HKD 2,420 million - The net profit growth rates are projected at 12.86% in 2023 and 10.73% in 2024, with a decline of 6.51% in 2025 [6][8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be: - 2023: HKD 0.31 - 2024: HKD 0.34 - 2025E: HKD 0.32 - 2026E: HKD 0.35 - 2027E: HKD 0.39 [6][8]. Operational Highlights - The company has signed contracts for six new vessels in the first half of 2025, with a total contract value of USD 308 million, all of which are mid-to-high-end vessel types [7]. - The fleet consists of 143 vessels, with 121 in operation and 22 under construction, ensuring a diversified and competitive fleet structure [7]. - The company has successfully reduced its comprehensive financing cost to 3.1%, down 40 basis points from the beginning of the year, and has decreased its debt-to-asset ratio to 65.2% [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company plans to raise HKD 2.338 billion through the issuance of convertible bonds with a low interest rate of 0.75%, which is below the current financing cost of 3.1%. This will help optimize the capital structure and enhance liquidity [7] - The company has a young and diverse fleet, with an average age of 4.13 years and a long average remaining lease term of 7.64 years, which contributes to stable performance [7] - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio and announced a special dividend of HKD 0.06 per share, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [7] - The financial forecasts for 2025-2027 project net profits of HKD 20 billion, HKD 22 billion, and HKD 24 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7, 6, and 5 [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from HKD 3,745 million in 2023 to HKD 4,821 million in 2027, with a peak growth rate of 18.58% in 2024 [6] - Net profit is expected to increase from HKD 1,902 million in 2023 to HKD 2,420 million in 2027, with a growth rate of 12.86% in 2023 [6] - Earnings per share are forecasted to rise from HKD 0.31 in 2023 to HKD 0.39 in 2027 [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The bull market for gold is not over, with macro factors remaining optimistic and short-term fluctuations driven by geopolitical events [3][11][13] - Key macro pricing factors for gold have not changed, indicating a sustained upward potential in the medium to long term [3][13] - Micro indicators show that while gold price deviations are high, the RSI is healthy, and ETF inflows continue to rise, suggesting no clear direction for gold prices [3][13] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry Insights - TSMC's revenue for December 2025 is projected to grow by 20.4% year-on-year, driven by high-margin advanced processes and strong demand from AI/HPC sectors [4][12] - The advanced process capacity is fully loaded, with HPC accounting for 55% of revenue and 3nm technology representing 28% of wafer revenue [4][12] - TSMC's guidance for Q1 2026 indicates revenue between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, with a gross margin of 63%-65%, reflecting strong demand visibility in AI [4][14] Group 3: Beauty Industry Trends - The South Korean beauty market has undergone several growth and decline phases, with the current phase focusing on global market expansion and reducing reliance on China [18][20] - New brands like APR and Silicon2 are outperforming traditional giants, indicating a shift in market dynamics and consumer preferences [20] - The report highlights the importance of innovation in product formulation and packaging, with South Korean brands leading in areas like cushion packaging and functional skincare products [20]

业 研 究 / 行 业 点 相关研究 行 业 及 产 业 美容护理 2026 年 01 月 22 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 联系人 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 品牌格局重塑，全球战略扩张 看好 ——从韩国美妆发展看如何重建新增长动能 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ⚫ 韩国美妆市场相对成熟，进行国际化探索早，并随着自身国家综合实力、本土需求与国 际市场需求的变化，发展经历数次沉浮，其展现的发展路径值得国货公司参考借鉴。我 们通过对韩国美妆市场的研究，探索韩国美妆在不同的发展阶段，崛起的美妆集团组织 架构的特点，如何在需求端快速变化的产品领域加速推新，在新成分、新剂型等领域如 何走在全球市场前端，以及拥抱全球市场背后所需要的能力。 ⚫ 韩国美妆四大成长与衰退阶段，把握低谷紧抓转型，再临高峰。韩国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, specifically highlighting the potential for effective control of AI model hallucinations by 2026 [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that while hallucinations in AI models are inevitable, advancements in algorithms, data quality, and engineering practices can significantly reduce their occurrence. The top 25 global models have achieved a hallucination rate below 8% [5][6]. - The report identifies three key areas for investment: mature AI applications, marketing AI that is less sensitive to hallucinations, and data plus AI infrastructure [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Hallucinations - The Lower Bound of Model Capability - The report defines hallucinations as overconfident errors produced by language models, which can include fabrications, factual inaccuracies, contextual misunderstandings, and logical fallacies. For instance, GPT-3.5 had a hallucination rate of approximately 40%, while GPT-4's rate was 28.6% [14][15]. 2. Sources of Hallucinations - Hallucinations arise from several factors, including model architecture, toxic data, lack of accuracy in reward objectives, and context window limitations. Addressing these factors is crucial for controlling hallucinations [7][8]. 3. Reducing Hallucinations: From Models, Data, Engineering, and Agents - The report discusses various strategies to mitigate hallucinations, such as using larger training datasets, extending context windows, and incorporating human feedback through reinforcement learning (RLHF) [25][26]. - Engineering practices like Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) are becoming standard, with Gartner predicting a 68% adoption rate by 2025 [56][57]. 4. 2B Application Penetration and Evolution - The report notes that the control of hallucinations in mainstream models has made significant progress, with the top 25 models in the Vectara HHEM ranking achieving hallucination rates below 8%. For example, the Finix model developed by Ant Group has a hallucination rate of only 1.8% [72].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [8][19]. Core Insights - The company achieved its annual growth guidance across all brands, with strong organic growth in its outdoor brand. The overall revenue for FY2023 is projected to be RMB 623.6 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16% [7][8]. - The main brand, Anta, experienced a slight decline in retail sales in Q4 2025, primarily due to weaker performance in the children's segment and online sales. However, FILA brand showed better-than-expected growth, and other brands continued to perform strongly [8][19]. - The company is expected to maintain a healthy inventory turnover ratio and stable discount rates, with a focus on brand strength, product innovation, and retail capabilities for future growth [8][19]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2024, FY2025E, FY2026E, and FY2027E are RMB 708.3 billion, RMB 799.8 billion, RMB 896.5 billion, and RMB 970.0 billion respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 14%, 13%, 12%, and 8% [7][19]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 102.4 billion for FY2023, increasing to RMB 156.0 billion in FY2024, but expected to decline to RMB 132.0 billion in FY2025E before recovering to RMB 140.0 billion in FY2026E and RMB 157.4 billion in FY2027E [7][19]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 3.61 for FY2023, increasing to RMB 5.41 in FY2024, and then fluctuating around RMB 4.60 to RMB 5.48 in the following years [7][19]. Brand Performance - Anta brand is expected to achieve low single-digit growth, while FILA is projected to continue its upward trend with mid-single-digit growth. Other brands are anticipated to grow by over 40% [8][19]. - The company plans to increase marketing and product investments in 2026, which may lead to temporary fluctuations in profit margins due to the competitive retail environment [8][19]. Market Position - The company has a unique multi-brand matrix that provides significant growth potential, and it remains optimistic about future developments despite challenges in the retail market [8][19].

上 市 公 司 纺织服饰 2026 年 01 月 22 日 安踏体育 (02020) —— 全年各品牌增长指引达成，户外品牌内生动能依然强劲 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 01 月 21 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 79.10 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9122.95 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 106.30/73.55 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 2,212.15 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 2,796.65 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8978 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -8% 12% 32% 52% HSCEI 安踏体育 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 注："每股收益"为归属普通股东净利润除以总股本 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ...

澳毛周期、无纺布制造可期 涨跌 (%) IKA ta 今日重点推荐 2026 年 01 月 22 日 纺织服装行业点评：2025 年报业绩前瞻，品牌服饰表现分化, 行业观点与投资分析意见： 展望 26 年内需有望逐步回暖,挖掘新消费高景气方向：①高性能户外:波 司登、安踏、滔搏、361 度，建议关注伯希和（已递交招股书）、李宁、特 步；②折扣零售：海澜之家（旗下京东奥莱）；③个护清洁：诺邦股份、稳 健医疗、洁雅股份；④睡眠经济：罗莱生活、水星家纺。 全球关税博弈变量逐步落定,不改核心制造全球竞争力:①运动制造产业链: 申洲国际、华利集团、裕元集团、伟星股份、百隆东方；②澳毛涨价周期： 新澳股份;③卫材升级产业链:延江股份。 风险提示：消费恢复低于预期；行业竞争加剧；存货减值风险；原材料成 本上涨。 (详见正文) (联系人：王立平/朱本伦) 海外利率上行引发全球震荡,后续推演与影响 -- -- 全球资产配 置风险系列报告之二 上 周 以 美 日 为 代 表 的 发 达 国 家 长 端 利 率 再 度 上 行 (20260101~20260120，30 年日债利率上行 41bp，30 年美债利率上 行 7bp), ...