财政节奏：或将加快 [Table_Authors] 侯欢(分析师) ——2025 年 3 月财政数据点评 本报告导读： 3 月财政收支增速边际回升，反映经济阶段性改善。二季度或主要加快 落实存量政策，后续根据需要或继续加码。 投资要点： 登记编号 S0880525040074 研 究 报 告 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.19 2025-04-21 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 专 题 证 券 021-38676666 梁中华(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040019 [Table_Summary] 狭义收入：增速边际回升。2025 年一季度，全国一般公共预算收入 同比下降 1.1%，其中 3 月当月同比增速 0.3%，相比 1-2 月的增速边 际回升。3 月的财税收入表现反映经济边际改善，或主要与消费补 贴、地产托底政策有关。进一步看，3 月当月，增值税、消费税、企 业所得税收入增速均边际回升；个人所得税收入同比回落，主因基 础因素的扰动；出口退税增速仍然较高，或受 "抢出口"的影响。 此外，非税收入增速边际回落，但仍对财 ...

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.17 2025-04-21 一季度经济中生产、消费、投资全面改善，政策受益板块表现更加强劲，下阶段预 计积极政策会继续逐步发力稳增长。 投资要点： 登记编号 S0880525040087 "开门红"的经济：结构如何 [Table_Authors] 李林芷(分析师) 宏 观 研 究 2025 年一季度经济数据点评 证 券 本报告导读： 研 究 报 告 宏 021-38676666 观 梁中华(分析师) 021-38676666 专 题 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | 1. | 一季度"开门红"：多点开花 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2. | 生产：表现强劲 | 3 | | 3. | 消费：政策利好板块增速高 | 5 | | 4. | 投资：基建投资回升 | 7 | 宏观专题 登记编号 S0880525040019 1. 一季度"开门红"：多点开花 [Table_Summary] 2025 年一季度经济实现"开门红"，GDP 实际同比增长 5.4%，与去 年四季度持平且高于年度增长目标。一方面，促消费、稳地产等政 策叠加春节假 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 21 Apr 2025 阿布扎比国家石油钻井公司（ADNOCDRI UH） 独具特色的钻探与能源服务商，股息有望提升 Scott Darling Catherine Li scott.darling@htisec.com catherine.dy.li@htisec.com [Table_summary] 要闻回顾以及最新动态 近日，海通邀请阿布扎比国家石油钻井公司（优于大市）与中国多家机构投资者进行交流，探讨公司的业务前景。该公司 是一家设于阿布扎比的钻探与能源服务公司，也是阿布扎比国家石油公司唯一的钻探服务提供商。详情见演示文稿及中东 2025 年展望：本十年能源强劲增长的受益者：首次覆盖。公司重点介绍了其独特的商业模式、可持续的高利润率及回报展 望，并再次重申目标，即在 2024 财年至 2028 财年期间，股息的年复合增长率至少达到 10%。阿布扎比国家石油钻井公司 严格的执行纪律巩固了该公司作为全球增长最快的钻井公司和当地整体解决方案提供商的地位，我们继续看好该公司。 点评 阿布扎比国家石油钻井公司的基本情况：阿布扎比国家石油钻井 ...

研究报告 Research Report 20 Apr 2025 香港医疗 Hong Kong Health Care 特朗普签署《降低医疗成本行政令》 Trump Announced Actions to Lower Prescription Drug Prices [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 股票名称 | 评级 | | 京东健康 | Outperform 固生堂 | Outperform | | 药明生物 | Outperform 诺辉健康-B | Outperform | | 康方生物 | Outperform 康宁杰瑞 | Outperform | | 阿里健康 | Outperform 复宏汉霖 | Outperform | | 中国生物制药 | Outperform 和誉 | Outperform | | 药明合联 | Outperform 方达控股 | Outperform | | 华润医药 | Outperform 瑞科生物 | Outperf ...

策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.20 2025-04-20 当前更似 2020，而非 2018 [Table_Authors] 吴信坤(分析师) 本报告导读： ①类似 2020 年全球疫情，本次美国贸易关税政策或对全球供应链及经济活动造成全 局性冲击。②本次全球大类资产反应也类似 2020 年，权益等风险资产出现大幅波 动，而避险类资产表现更优、黄金价格创下历史新高。③当下宏观政策、科技产业 积极因素正在积累，若类似 2020 年政策空间进一步打开，则资本市场平稳运行提供 宏观保障和基本面支持。 投资要点： 登记编号 S0880525040061 证 券 研 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 略 研 究 海 告 021-38676666 余培仪(分析师) 021-38676666 外 策 略 研 究 究 报 登记编号 S0880525040084 陆嘉瑞(研究助理) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880125042248 [Table_Summary] 相似点一：全球经贸活动遭全局性冲击。类似 2020 年全球疫情，当 前美国贸易政策或冲击全球供应链和经济活力。2018 年 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 20 Apr 2025 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 等待中美贸易破局及国内政策刺激 Awaiting a Resolution in US-China Trade and Domestic Policy Stimulus 周林泓 Amber Zhou 陈昊飞 Haofei Chen, PhD 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com haofei.chen@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们预计市场将进入筑底，因此我们建议投资者逢低加仓，特别是恒生指数19,000-20,000点和上证综指3000- 3100点附近；行业方面，我们建议短期内关注一带一路和内需消费，中长期仍然建议关注科技改革并配以外贸重 塑受益标的。本周市场尚未回落至前低附近，全周恒生指数涨 ...

研究报告 Research Report 20 Apr 2025 百威亚太 Budweiser Brewing Co APAC (1876 HK) 进入深度调整期，期待改革释成效 Entering a period of deep adjustment, looking forward to the release of reform [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持中性 Maintain NEUTRAL 评级 中性 NEUTRAL 现价 HK$8.44 目标价 HK$7.90 HTI ESG 3.7-3.0-3.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$111.77bn / US$14.40bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$30.22mn 发行股票数目 13,243mn 自由流通股 (%) 13% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$11.66-HK$6.94 注：现价 HK$8.44 为 2025 年 04 月 17 日收盘价 资料来源： Fa ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating, targeting a price of HK$24.20 from the current price of HK$17.70 [1]. Core Insights - Guming Holdings is positioned as a leading 4A (Available, Adorable, Affordable, Addicted) freshly-made beverage brand in China, focusing on the growing demand for fresh, convenient, and cost-effective drinks, particularly in lower-tier cities [1][6]. - The company has established a robust supply chain and utilizes digitalization to enhance operational efficiency, aiming for steady national expansion [3][6]. - Guming is the second-largest freshly-made tea beverage brand in China by GMV, holding a market share of 9.1%, and the largest in the mass market segment with a 17.7% share [1][6]. Company Overview - Guming Holdings operates a network of 9,914 stores across 17 provinces in China, with a significant presence in lower-tier cities, where 41% of its stores are located in rural areas [1][6][29]. - The company has a strong financial outlook, with projected revenues of RMB 10.84 billion, RMB 12.84 billion, and RMB 14.42 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 23%, 18%, and 12% [1][4]. - Guming's net profit is expected to reach RMB 1.88 billion, RMB 2.19 billion, and RMB 2.38 billion over the same period, with a diluted EPS forecasted to grow from RMB 0.90 in 2025 to RMB 1.14 in 2027 [1][4]. Industry Insights - The freshly-made beverage market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.5% from 2018 to 2023, significantly outpacing the overall beverage market's growth of 9.4% [2][13]. - The market for freshly-made beverages is projected to reach RMB 11,634 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 17.6% from 2023 to 2028 [13]. - Freshly-made tea and coffee dominate the market, with their combined market size expected to grow substantially, reflecting changing consumer preferences towards higher quality and fresh products [13][19].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "OUTPERFORM" rating, projecting EPS for 2025-27 at RMB 0.96, 1.01, and 1.19 respectively [4][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a revenue of RMB 1.93 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 2.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 220 million, down 17.6% year-over-year [4][9]. - The report highlights that the company's performance is influenced by several factors, including a profit increase in 2023 due to fee reversals, a decrease in photovoltaic utilization hours, and lower finance expenses contributing positively to profits [4][9]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 410 million, representing an 87.5% year-over-year increase, driven by improved water inflow and reduced capital expenditures [4][9]. Financial Data and Forecast - Key financial metrics for the company include: - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 1,990 million, with a significant decline of 23.8% [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is expected to be RMB 265 million, down 36.1% [3]. - The company anticipates a recovery in water inflow, estimating an increase in hydropower sector net profit by RMB 130 million in 2025 [4][9]. - The report also notes that the company's financial structure is expected to improve, with potential increases in dividends as a result of capital structure enhancements [4][9]. Comparable Company Valuation - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is projected at 16.3x, with the report assigning a PE of 18.5x for the company, leading to a target price of RMB 17.76 [4][9]. - The report emphasizes the company's competitive positioning within the industry, particularly in relation to peers such as Guiguan Electric [4][9].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息服务 证券研究报告 股本摊薄） 数据来源：Wind，公司公告，HTI 中科软（603927）公司年报点评 [Table_InvestInfo] 非保险 IT 增速亮眼， AIGC 应用多场景落地 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 主要财务数据及预测 | [Table_FinanceInfo] 财务摘要（百万 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元） 营业收入 | 6,503 | 6,671 | 7,233 | 7,866 | 8,520 | | (+/-)% | -3.0% | 2.6% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | | 净利润（归母） | 655 | 355 | 383 | 505 | 658 | | (+/-)% | 2.6% | -45.8% | 7.9% | 31.7% | 30.3% | | 每股净收益（元） | 0.79 | 0.43 | 0.46 | 0.61 | 0.79 | | 净资产收益率( ...