行业跟踪报告 2025 年 04 月 19 日 [Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/计算机 证券研究报告 计算机周观点第 2 期：近期 AI 业界发展如火如 荼，坚定看好中国 AI 行业前景 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 数据来源：Wind，HTI，收盘价、市值为 2025 年 4 月 11 日数据 备注：2024 年 EPS 中达梦数据、金山办公、通行宝、鸿泉物联来源于年报数据，其他数据来源于 HTI 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 投资建议：无论从 OpenAI 新模型的发布还是各 AI 巨头布局 MCP，都能看出 目前 AI 行业的基础技术和商业落地是并行发展的，并不存在停滞，未来 AI 各类应用的渗透有望持续加速，而英伟达 CEO 的表态更是凸显了中国在整个 AI 业界的重要地位，我们坚定看好中国 AI 行业的长久发展，我们持续看好 计算机板块，建议关注标的：华大九天、达梦数据、金山办公、新大陆、通 行宝、赛意信息、鸿泉物联、润泽科技。 近期，OpenAI 发布多款新模型。4 月 15 日，OpenAI 在 API 中推出三款新模 型：GPT-4.1、GPT-4.1 mi ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Pop Mart International [2][12] Core Views - The company's 1Q performance significantly exceeded expectations, with revenue growth of 165%-170% year-on-year, driven by strong domestic and overseas sales [3][12] - The company is focusing on brand enhancement and expanding its product offerings, including a new sub-brand for accessories [4][5] - The organizational structure has been upgraded to improve management efficiency and support global expansion [4][5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 24.22 billion, RMB 33.53 billion, and RMB 42.35 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 86%, 38%, and 26% [5][11] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are RMB 7.01 billion, RMB 9.91 billion, and RMB 12.83 billion, reflecting growth rates of 106%, 41%, and 29% [5][11] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 66.8% in 2024 to 70.8% by 2027 [11] Market Performance - The current stock price is HK$175.90, with a target price set at HK$198.10, indicating a potential upside [2][12] - The company has shown strong absolute returns over the past year, with a 480.9% increase [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to see continued growth in compound fertilizer sales in 2024, with profitability improving in 2025 as new capacities ramp up [2][8]. - The earnings forecast for 2025-2026 has been revised upwards, with new projections for 2027 introduced, estimating EPS at RMB 0.86, 1.04, and 1.27 respectively [2][8]. - Based on the 2025 industry average PE of 14.9x, the target price is set at RMB 12.72, reflecting a significant increase from the previous target of RMB 8.45 [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of RMB 10.26 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 0.83 billion, up 17.89% year-on-year [3][9]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of RMB 2.38 billion, down 0.24% year-on-year but up 8.06% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of RMB 0.16 billion, up 33.57% year-on-year [3][9]. - For the first quarter of 2025, total revenue reached RMB 3.41 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.56% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42.85%, with a net profit of RMB 0.29 billion, up 20.84% year-on-year [10]. Sales and Production Insights - The company reported compound fertilizer sales of 3.35 million tons in 2024, marking a 12.68% increase year-on-year [3][9]. - The phosphate facilities are operational, and a new production line for 0.3 million tons of compound fertilizer is running smoothly [3][9]. Financial Projections - The financial summary indicates projected revenues of RMB 11.56 billion for 2025, with a net profit of RMB 0.99 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 19.3% [5]. - The EPS projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 0.86, 1.04, and 1.27 respectively, with a steady increase in net asset return rates [5][6].

策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.22 2025-04-22 加仓半导体互联网，减仓能源材料 [Table_Authors] 吴信坤(分析师) ——25Q1 基金港股持仓点评 本报告导读： 25Q1 公募基金对港股明显增持，持股集中度继续上升，主动偏股型基金港股持仓/ 南向港股持仓略有提升。分行业看，25Q1 公募基金主要加仓港股商贸零售、电子和 传媒，主要减仓港股社服、石油石化和公用事业。 投资要点： 风险提示：部分数据披露不全造成偏误。 登记编号 S0880525040061 策 略 研 究 海 外 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 021-38676666 陈菲(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040127 [Table_Summary] 25Q1 公募基金对港股继续增持，持股集中度继续回升。25Q1 可以 通过港股通投资港股的公募基金发行多于去年四季度。从整体仓位 看，公募基金对港股延续增持，截至 25Q1 主动偏股型基金重仓股 中港股持股市值占比为 19.2%，相较 24Q4 环比上升 4.7 个百分点。 从指 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating, assigning a target price of RMB 5.32 based on a 14x PE for 2025 [4][18]. Core Insights - The company's 2024 revenue is projected at RMB 179.2 billion, a decrease of 1.0% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise by 75.3% to RMB 9.83 billion [19]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of RMB 45.3 billion, up 4.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 640 million, reversing a loss from the previous year [19]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in asset and credit impairment in Q4 2024, amounting to RMB 860 million, down RMB 1.09 billion year-on-year [20]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 3.57 billion for 2024, representing 36.3% of net profit attributable to shareholders [19]. Financial Data and Forecasts - The financial summary indicates that the company's revenue is expected to recover slightly in 2025, with projections of RMB 180.8 billion, followed by RMB 191.9 billion in 2026 and RMB 192.9 billion in 2027 [3][17]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 6.71 billion in 2025, RMB 7.73 billion in 2026, and RMB 8.32 billion in 2027, reflecting a significant increase in 2024 [3][17]. - The report notes that the company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 11.1% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 11.8% by 2027 [3][17]. Operational Highlights - The company is nearing the completion of hydropower projects, with a total capacity of 15.0GW expected by the end of 2024, and additional capacity planned for 2025 and 2026 [21]. - The report indicates that the company's wind and solar power segments experienced a decline in net profit, with projections of RMB 780 million and RMB 600 million respectively for 2024 [21]. - The company plans to invest RMB 28 billion in early-stage and infrastructure projects in 2025, which is a decrease of 11.6% year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown in renewable energy project development [21].

业绩符合预期，产能瓶颈解决在即 [Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息设备/电子元器件 证券研究报告 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 主要财务数据及预测 | [Table 财务摘要（百万元） _FinanceInfo] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 48,784 | 48,615 | 60,795 | 73,289 | 86,289 | | (+/-)% | 34.4% | -0.3% | 25.1% | 20.6% | 17.7% | | 净利润（归母） | 4,050 | 4,076 | 5,034 | 6,808 | 8,117 | | (+/-)% | 15.4% | 0.6% | 23.5% | 35.2% | 19.2% | | 每股净收益（元） | 1.98 | 1.99 | 2.46 | 3.33 | 3.97 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 11.7% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 14.6% | 15.4% | | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a target price of RMB 12.3 based on a 2025 PE of 35x [4][9]. Core Insights - The company has a standardized scenic area management system and cross-regional replication capability, supported by quality cultural tourism assets from its major shareholder, Xiangyuan Holdings Group [4][9]. - Projected net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are RMB 372 million, RMB 409 million, and RMB 448 million respectively, indicating strong growth potential [4][9]. - The company has overcome the natural resource dependency bottleneck, allowing for a valuation premium [4][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 72.226 billion in 2023 to RMB 150.668 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 55.8% in 2023 and 74.4% in 2025 [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase significantly from RMB 15.130 billion in 2023 to RMB 37.248 billion in 2025, with a remarkable growth rate of 571.7% in 2023 [3]. - The company anticipates a revenue of RMB 864 million in 2024, representing a 19.6% increase, with a slight decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders by 3.1% [10]. Business Model and Strategy - The company is actively exploring a "low-altitude + cultural tourism" model, partnering with leading general aviation companies to innovate in low-altitude tourism operations [12]. - It aims to integrate cultural tourism with technological innovation, establishing demonstration samples in key scenic areas [12]. - The company has a diverse portfolio in tourism assets, including various scenic spots and a strong presence in the animation and digital cultural sectors [7]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, tourism scenic area revenue is expected to reach RMB 545 million, a 39.7% increase, with a gross profit margin of 63.1% [11]. - Revenue from tourism services, including smart cultural tourism and low-altitude tourism, is projected to grow by 768% to RMB 107 million [11]. - The tourism resort business is also expected to see a 50.3% increase in revenue, reaching RMB 57.06 million [11]. Shareholder Structure - The top shareholders include Xiangyuan Tourism Development Co., Ltd. with 36.93% and Zhejiang Xiangyuan Industrial Co., Ltd. with 19.37%, collectively holding 69.8% of the total share capital [8].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/医药与健康护理/医疗保健提供商与服务 证券研究报告 诺禾致源（688315）公司年报点评 [Table_InvestInfo] 盈利能力提升、关注国际贸易环境变化 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 主要财务数据及预测 | [Table_FinanceInfo] | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入 | 2,002 | 2,111 | 2,357 | 2,634 | 2,947 | | (+/-)% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 11.9% | | 净利润（归母） | 178 | 197 | 222 | 248 | 276 | | (+/-)% | 0.5% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 11.1% | | 每股净收益（元） | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.66 | | 净资产收益率(%) ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Fuyao Glass Industry Group with a target price of Rmb62.27, down from the previous target of Rmb63.05 [2][6]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 results show a revenue of Rmb997 million, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, and a gross profit of Rmb3.508 billion, reflecting a 7.8% year-on-year growth. The gross profit margin stands at 35.40% [4][15]. - The automotive glass business outperformed the industry, with revenue growth of 12.16% year-on-year and a sales volume increase of 7.84% [5][16]. - The competitive landscape is improving, with capacity expansion supporting market share gains. The company is expected to benefit from declining raw material and freight costs, which will help offset the impact of new capacity ramp-up [6][17]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Fuyao Glass are as follows: Rmb39.252 billion for 2024, Rmb45.217 billion for 2025, Rmb51.677 billion for 2026, and Rmb58.540 billion for 2027, indicating a growth rate of 18%, 15%, 14%, and 13% respectively [3][10]. - Net profit estimates are Rmb7.498 billion for 2024, Rmb8.553 billion for 2025, Rmb10.154 billion for 2026, and Rmb11.780 billion for 2027, with growth rates of 33%, 14%, 19%, and 16% respectively [3][10]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be Rmb2.87 for 2024, Rmb3.28 for 2025, Rmb3.89 for 2026, and Rmb4.51 for 2027 [3][10]. Operational Insights - The company has successfully ramped up new capacity, including 1.5 million sets of high-value-added products in the U.S. and additional projects in China, which are expected to enhance overall production efficiency and market presence [6][17]. - The gross profit margin is expected to recover throughout the year, benefiting from lower costs of raw materials and shipping [5][16].

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.20 2025-04-21 全面拆解：各行业面临多少关税 [Table_Authors] 梁中华(分析师) 登记编号 S0880525040019 本报告导读： 美国设计的三类关税措施一一对应财政增收、制造业回流和国家谈判，"想当然"的 希望制造业回流和债务调整。当前中国未受豁免品类最高受关税加征 145%，达到 了 245%，平均而言税率为 121.5%。往后看，美国自身压力会增大，关税的力度可 能出现调整。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 美国加关税的初衷是"想当然"的促进美国的制造业回流和债务调 整。白宫经济顾问米兰的《全球贸易体系重组指南》里，对"特里 芬悖论"的解释，认为美国提供美元与美债两大储备资产的副作用 是贸易赤字与财政赤字加剧，因而当前使用关税来促进美国的制造 业回流和债务调整，进而改善双赤字问题。 关税的三类措施各有用意 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 专 题 021-38676666 刘姜枫(研究助理) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880123070128 对全 ...