1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The EU plans to adjust high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and replace them with a minimum price mechanism, signaling a缓和 in trade tensions. The Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Li Lecheng, aims to drive new breakthroughs in future manufacturing, information, and materials. In the long - term, the transmission process needs to be observed. [2] - In the short term, it is expected that Shanghai nickel will have a wide - range adjustment, and attention should be paid to the support of MA10. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 138,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,750 yuan; the 02 - 03 month contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 190 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 18,075 US dollars/ton, an increase of 375 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 119,485 lots, a decrease of 4,663 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 69,516 lots, an increase of 12,055 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 284,562 tons, a decrease of 228 tons. The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 46,650 tons, an increase of 1,106 tons. The warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 39,436 tons, a decrease of 234 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 145,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,650 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 145,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,550 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,400 yuan. The basis of the NI main contract is 6,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,100 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 200.47 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.09 US dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 333.95 million tons, a decrease of 134.33 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,319.77 million tons, a decrease of 12.26 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 72.18 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14.84 US dollars. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 22,100 metal tons, a decrease of 800 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, an increase of 2,900.84 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 895,400 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7617 million tons, a decrease of 38,300 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 540,500 tons, a decrease of 13,300 tons. [2] 3.6 Industry News - The EU plans to adjust high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and replace them with a minimum price mechanism, releasing a signal of easing trade tensions. The Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Li Lecheng, said that efforts will be made to drive new breakthroughs in future manufacturing, future information, and future materials, focusing on fields such as quantum technology, humanoid robots, brain - computer interfaces, deep - sea polar regions, and 6G. [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On the macro - level, the Minister of Industry and Information Technology promotes new breakthroughs in future manufacturing, information, and materials. On the fundamental level, the import volume of nickel ore is in a downward trend as the Philippines enters the rainy season, and the planned significant reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia next year causes concerns about raw material supply. In the smelting end, the output of Indonesian ferronickel remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase; the domestic refined nickel production capacity is large, and with the recent rise in nickel prices and profit repair, the output of refined nickel is expected to rise again. On the demand side, the cost of stainless - steel ferronickel has decreased, the profit of steel mills has improved, and the planned production volume is expected to be high; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. The domestic nickel inventory is in an increasing trend, and the market mainly buys on dips, with a high spot premium; the growth of overseas LME inventory has slowed down. Technically, the position has decreased and the price has fallen, with a large divergence between long and short positions. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The probability of an increase in urea production is relatively high, but the agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season with lukewarm overall trading atmosphere. The downstream is resistant to high - price goods and mostly adopts a just - in - time procurement strategy. The industrial sector maintains rigid demand procurement. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises fluctuates slightly, and the de - stocking amplitude is limited. The short - term de - stocking amplitude of urea enterprises is expected to be limited. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1750 - 1800 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1774 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 25 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 230,249 lots, down 6,626 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 17,040. The exchange warehouse receipts are 13,355 sheets, up 155 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui are 1740 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jiangsu and Shandong are 1730 - 1740 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 53 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan. FOB Baltic is 367.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China main port is 402.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 140,000 tons, down 32,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 1.0222 million tons, up 3,000 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.22%, up 2.93%. The daily urea output is 195,900 tons, up 1,700 tons. The urea export volume is 600,000 tons, down 600,000 tons. The monthly urea output is 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 37.17%, up 3.28%. The melamine operating rate is 54.35%, up 6.7%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 244 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 152 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.3825 million tons, up 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 28,300 tons, down 1,900 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of January 7, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.0222 million tons, up 0.29% week - on - week. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises fluctuates slightly this period, with local inventory rising or falling differently. As of January 8, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 140,000 tons, down 18.60% week - on - week. The departure volume of port goods increases this week, and some ports are loading and leaving. Due to the slow pace of factory goods gathering at ports and quota restrictions, most ports maintain a low level. As of January 8, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 1.3716 million tons, up 0.92% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate is 83.22%, up 2.93% [2] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week, with some enterprises having maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday and some continuing to control production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,600 - 16,400 in the short - term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,650 - 13,250 in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,975 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 155 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,840 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 170 yuan. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,135 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 194,674 lots, a decrease of 5,832 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 70,162 lots, a decrease of 402 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 53,451 lots, an increase of 253 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 15,091 lots, a decrease of 268 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 105,590 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 57,758 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,700 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,920 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,910 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, with no change. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 1,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,324 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 314 yuan/ton, a decrease of 144 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 60.09 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.13 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 56.35 Thai baht/kg, with no change. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 57 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup glue) was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 24 US dollars/ton, an increase of 21 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 168,800 tons, an increase of 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 302,200 tons, an increase of 45,800 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 58.02%, a decrease of 1.53 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 65.89%, a decrease of 3.46 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 44.62 days, a decrease of 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 47.36 days, an increase of 0.31 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13,010,000 pieces, an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58,310,000 pieces, an increase of 6,630,000 pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.48%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.64%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.28%, an increase of 1.52 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.27%, an increase of 1.53 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and an increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period last year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1,140,000 vehicles. - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, an increase of 19,800 tons or 3.62% compared with the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13%. - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of the semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 63.78%, a decrease of 2.75 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 13.97 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of the all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a decrease of 2.43 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 3.37 percentage points compared with the same period last year [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This cycle, domestic cis - butadiene rubber production remains at a high level. The cis - butadiene market is boosted by the sharp rise in raw material prices, and the sales of production enterprises have improved. However, there is some inventory that has been sold but not picked up, so the overall inventory level has limited changes [2]. - The continuous strength and rapid price increase of raw materials have led to a significant increase in the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber. Affected by the downstream resistance to high prices, downstream may maintain rigid demand procurement. It is expected that the inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises may increase in the short term [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week [2]. - The short - term fluctuation range of the br2603 contract is expected to be between 11,700 and 12,500 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 70. The position of the main contract is 95,318, with an increase of 72,576 [2]. - The synthetic rubber 2 - 3 spread is - 65 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30. The total number of warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 6,530 tons, with an increase of 2,000 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50. The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 [2]. - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,950 yuan/ton, with no change. The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 120 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 105. The price of Brent crude oil is not clearly stated in terms of change, and the new price is not given in a complete comparison [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 63.87 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.53. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 725 US dollars/ton, with no change. The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,105 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 6.75 [2]. - The market price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,475 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 25. The price of WTI crude oil is 59.5 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.38 [2]. - The butadiene production capacity this week is 15.93 million tons/week, with no change. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene this week is 71.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14 [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 41,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,400. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.57%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.37 [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.01 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.75. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber this week is 79.15%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.97 [2]. - The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber this week is - 335 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 669. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.31 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 [2]. - The manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,350 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 50. The trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 6,770 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 410 [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 65.89%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.46. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 58.02%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.53 [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with an increase of 59. The monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with an increase of 663 [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 44.62 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.43. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.36 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.31 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - According to Longzhong Information statistics, in December, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 14.36 million tons, an increase of 1.35 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.97% [2]. - In December, the capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 72.13%, an increase of 4.65 percentage points from the previous month and a decrease of 2.68 percentage points from the same period last year [2]. - As of January 7, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 3.31 million tons, a decrease of 0.04 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Short - term V2605 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the daily K - line focusing on support around 4780 and resistance around 5000. The terminal real estate and infrastructure are in the low - temperature off - season, and the demand side is weak. The impact of the "rush to export" after the export tax - refund cancellation policy from April needs further observation. PVC capacity utilization is expected to change little. The start - up rate of the chlor - alkali plant in January is generally at a relatively high level. The start - up rate of downstream hard products such as pipes and profiles will decline seasonally before the Spring Festival [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4888 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan; the trading volume is 1,615,530 lots, down 726,208 lots; the open interest is 1,034,623 lots, down 24,293 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 1,063,153 lots, down 17,147 lots; the short positions are 1,150,751 lots, down 2,432 lots; the net long positions are - 87,598 lots, down 14,715 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,710 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,627.69 yuan/ton, down 11.54 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,795 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,641.25 yuan/ton, down 0.62 yuan. The CIF price in China is 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 610 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 340 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2,665 yuan/ton, up 41.67 yuan; in the Northwest, it is 2,491 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East is 397 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia is 428 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East is 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia is 194 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 79.67%, up 1.04 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.71%, up 1.35 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 79.56%, up 0.27 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 546,300 tons, up 21,100 tons; the inventory in the East China region is 501,800 tons, up 21,200 tons; the inventory in the South China region is 44,500 tons, down 100 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.9, down 0.53. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, up 43.9531 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6.560662 billion square meters, up 31.2717 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 420.2457 billion yuan, up 304.16 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 24.07%, down 0.49 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.64%, up 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.78%, up 2.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.8%, up 2.3 percentage points [3] Industry News - From January 2nd to 8th, the capacity utilization rate of PVC in China was 79.67%, up 1.03% month - on - month. From January 3rd to 9th, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.08% to 44.02% month - on - month, among which the operating rate of pipes decreased by 0.2% to 35.4% month - on - month, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 0.44% to 30.22% month - on - month. As of January 8th, the social inventory of PVC was 1,114,100 tons, up 3.48% from the previous period. From January 2nd to 8th, the average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC nationwide increased to 5,061 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC nationwide decreased to 5,004 yuan/ton month - on - month; the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC recovered to - 634 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC recovered to - 192 yuan/ton [3]

国债期货日报 2026/1/13 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 107.850 | 0.06% T主力成交量 | 54073 | -10308↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.625 | 0.04% TF主力成交量 | 44516 | -20415↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.330 | 0% TS主力成交量 | 31235 | -6059↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 111.350 | 0.28% TL主力成交量 | 89373 | -9823↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.13 | -0.03↓ T03-TL03价差 | -3.50 | -0.14↓ | | | T2603-2606价差 | 0.07 | -0.02↓ TF03-T03价差 | -2.22 | -0.00↓ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | 0.02 | +0.02↑ TS03-T03价差 | -5.52 | ...

降低预期。MA2605合约短线预计在2210-2300区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2263 | 0 甲醇5-9价差(日,元/吨) | -5 | -7 8034 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 830030 | -33561 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -165175 | | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 7655 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓( ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term SH2603 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support around 2100 technically. The supply pressure of caustic soda may further increase. The spot price of liquid caustic soda is under pressure due to the overall loose supply - demand situation. [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan; the main contract position is 208,787 lots, an increase of 9,209 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 26,422 lots, a decrease of 2,085 lots; the main contract trading volume is 485,679 lots, an increase of 41,886 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,964 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2,313 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan. [2] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 674 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 780 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2,106 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan. The basis is - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal is 644 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 250 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 2,580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. [2] Industry News - From January 2nd to 8th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.8%, a 0.4% increase from the previous week. From January 3rd to 9th, the alumina start - up rate increased by 1.07% to 85.74%. From January 5th to 8th, the viscose staple fiber start - up rate increased by 3.01% to 88.43%, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate decreased by 0.72% to 60.09%. As of January 8th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 495,200 tons (wet tons), a 1.96% increase from the previous week and a 76.03% increase year - on - year. [2] Viewpoint Summary - From January 2nd to 8th, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 183 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate increased slightly, the start - up was high. The alumina start - up rate changed little, the viscose staple fiber start - up load increased, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate decreased seasonally. The inventory increased compared with the previous period and was higher than the same - period level. The price of caustic soda in Shandong was weak, the price of liquid chlorine increased, and the profit of Shandong chlor - alkali increased slightly. The planned maintenance capacity of chlor - alkali in January was small, and the industry start - up rate was expected to remain at a relatively high level. The short - term start - up load of alumina enterprises remained basically stable, but the low profit in the industry suppressed the procurement demand of alumina plants and increased the expectation of future production cuts. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 12, 2026, the freight index (European line) futures prices rose significantly. The main contract EC2604 closed up 11.30%, and the far - month contracts closed up 3 - 5%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight index was 1956.39, up 160.56 points from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.9% [3]. - The cancellation of full tax - refund for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026 may lead to a rush of shipments, boosting long - term contract cargo volume and supporting freight rates. The manufacturing PMI data in China in December showed a slight recovery, and the new export order index rose to 49, indicating a significant recovery in terminal transportation demand [3]. - Spot freight rates for the fourth - week quotes for large containers ranged from $2600 - $3200, and Maersk's fourth - week opening price for large containers was $2700, up $100 from the third week. Geopolitically, there are expectations of improved Red Sea shipping, and the inflation pressure in the eurozone has eased, weakening the market's expectation of an ECB interest - rate hike by the end of the year [3]. - Freight rate increases have not been implemented, many shipping companies have successively lowered prices, weakening the support for futures prices. The current freight market is greatly affected by seasonal demand. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures盘面 - EC main contract closing price was 1280.8, up 65; EC secondary main contract closing price was 1485.1; EC2604 - EC2606 spread was +77, EC2604 - EC2608 spread was - 204.3, up 96.8 from - 284.4; EC contract basis was +24.26; EC main contract open interest was 37092, up 8071 [3]. Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 1956.39, up 160.56; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) was 1323.98, up 73.86; SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1656.32, up 8.93; container ship capacity (in 10,000 TEUs) remained unchanged; CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1146.67, down 48.22; CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1519.06, down 48.69; Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 1688, up 30; Panamax freight index (daily) was 1345, down 9; average charter price for Panamax ships remained unchanged, and for Capesize ships was $19336, down $646 [3]. Industry News - From April 1, 2026, all listed photovoltaic - related products will no longer enjoy VAT export tax - refund incentives [3]. - US President Trump signed an executive order to prevent the seizure of Venezuela's oil revenues in US Treasury accounts [3]. - EU member states voted to pass the free - trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur, with 21 member states supporting it and 5 opposing it [3]. Key Focus - January 13, 21:30, US December unadjusted CPI annual rate; January 13, 21:30, US December unadjusted core CPI annual rate [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The probability of an increase in urea production is high due to the recovery of some previously overhauled plants and no planned shutdowns in the short term, despite possible short - term enterprise malfunctions. Agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season with a lukewarm trading atmosphere, and downstream buyers are reluctant to accept high - priced goods, preferring to buy as needed. Industrial demand maintains rigid procurement, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises fluctuates little. Although the inventory of domestic urea enterprises fluctuates slightly and the order collection of enterprises has improved significantly with rising prices, the de - stocking amplitude is limited due to the pre - increased inventory. The downstream chasing trend may slow down with the recent price increase, and the short - term de - stocking amplitude of urea enterprises is expected to be limited. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1750 - 1800 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1783 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 20 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 236,875 lots, up 4,468 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 20,138 lots, down 1,116 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 13,200 pieces, up 350 pieces [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Anhui are 1750 yuan/ton with no change; in Jiangsu it is 1760 yuan/ton with no change; in Shandong it is 1750 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The main contract basis is - 27 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The FOB Baltic price is 367.5 dollars/ton, up 12.5 dollars; the FOB China main port price is 402.5 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 140,000 tons, down 32,000 tons week - on - week, a decline of 18.60%. Enterprise inventory is 1.0222 billion tons, up 3,000 tons week - on - week, an increase of 0.29%. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.22%, up 2.93%. The daily urea output is 195,900 tons, up 1,700 tons. The urea export volume is 600,000 tons, down 600,000 tons. The monthly urea output is 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 37.17%, up 3.28%. The melamine operating rate is 54.35%, up 6.7%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 244 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 152 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.3825 million tons, up 753,800 tons. The weekly output of melamine is 28,300 tons, down 1,900 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of January 7, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0222 million tons, up 0.30 million tons week - on - week, a 0.29% increase, with small fluctuations and varying local inventory changes. As of January 8, the port sample inventory of Chinese urea was 140,000 tons, down 32,000 tons week - on - week, a 18.60% decline, due to increased departure of port goods and slow factory - to - port rhythm. As of January 8, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3716 million tons, up 12,500 tons, a 0.92% increase, driven by the recovery of some previously overhauled plants [2] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]