Report Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry [4][28] Core Viewpoints - The dairy sector has attracted significant market attention, benefiting from the expected improvement in the supply - demand pattern and the stimulation of the three - child subsidy policy. The dairy industry is expected to see a bottom - up recovery in fundamentals in the second half of the year [3][27] - The food and beverage sector has the opportunity for value re - evaluation. In the short term, it may initiate a recovery market at the beginning of economic warming; in the long - term, the improvement of fundamentals is highly certain, and the long - term logic of consumption upgrading remains stable [4][28] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - Since 2021, the Chinese dairy industry has faced the dual dilemmas of oversupply and weak demand, leading to a decline in raw milk prices and a large loss - making area in the raw milk industry [10] - In 2019, the profit of dairy cow breeding in China increased significantly, leading to an expansion of dairy cow breeding and a rapid growth in milk production. By 2023, China's milk production reached 41.97 million tons, nearly 14% higher than in 2021 [10] Demand Side - After 2021, affected by the consumption environment, the national dairy consumption declined. In 2022, the per - capita dairy consumption in China was 42.0 kg, 0.6 kg less than the previous year. In 2023, it slightly rebounded to 42.2 kg, but still only one - third of the world average [15] - Since the second half of 2021, the price of fresh milk has been continuously decreasing, and the loss - making area of the raw milk industry has exceeded 80%. Currently, the supply side is continuously reducing production capacity, and the raw milk price has dropped from the highest level of 4.38 yuan/kg in 2021 to 3.08 yuan/kg on March 13, 2025, a decrease of 29.7% [15] Supply - Demand Policy Boosting Confidence - Supply - side policy: The 2025 No. 1 Central Document proposed to promote the relief of the milk industry, stabilize the basic production capacity, implement the national standard for sterilized milk, and support the integrated development of dairy farming and processing. The upgrade of the dairy quality standard system will force industrial technology upgrading and accelerate the elimination of inefficient production capacity [16] - Demand - side policy: The 2025 "Government Work Report" pointed out measures to promote fertility, including issuing parenting subsidies and increasing the supply of inclusive childcare services [16] - Driven by policies, dairy demand is expected to pick up. The per - capita dairy consumption in China is low, and there is a large upward space for dairy demand. The raw milk price is expected to bottom out and stabilize, and the supply - demand pattern of the dairy industry is expected to improve next year [20] Dairy Industry Pattern in China - The current competition pattern of the dairy industry is relatively stable, forming a duopoly pattern of "two super - strong and many strong" [23] - The dairy consumption structure is mainly liquid milk and milk powder, with a relatively small proportion of cheese [24] Investment Suggestions - Focus on three directions in the dairy industry: leading enterprises with scale effects and product structure upgrading capabilities; enterprises with layouts in low - temperature dairy products and high - end products; upstream livestock enterprises [3][27] - Pay attention to two investment main lines in the food and beverage industry: sectors with large valuation elasticity such as dairy products, liquor, beer, and condiments; snack and soft drink sectors with high prosperity [4][28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1][25]. Core Viewpoints - In January and February 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.0%, reaching 83,731 billion yuan, with retail sales excluding automobiles increasing by 4.8% to 76,838 billion yuan [6][1]. - Offline retail formats are generally recovering, with convenience store sales increasing by 9.8% year-on-year [2][12]. - The "old-for-new" policy has driven a sustained increase in home appliance consumption, with a growth rate of 10.9% in January and February 2025 [3][15]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Growth - The total retail sales of consumer goods in January and February 2025 reached 83,731 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [6]. - Retail sales of goods amounted to 73,939 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, while catering revenue was 9,792 billion yuan, growing by 4.3% [2][9]. Offline Retail Recovery - The offline retail sector is showing signs of recovery, with significant growth in convenience stores and supermarkets [2][12]. - The growth in retail sales for convenience stores, professional stores, supermarkets, and department stores was 9.8%, 5.4%, 4.0%, and 0.4% respectively [12]. Consumer Trends - The "old-for-new" policy has positively impacted the sales of home appliances, which have seen a growth rate of 10.9% in early 2025 [3][15]. - The food and oil retail sales have been steadily increasing, maintaining a monthly year-on-year growth rate of around 10% since the second half of 2024 [3][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong recovery potential in offline retail, particularly those with high growth rates in sub-sectors [4][24]. - It highlights the potential of domestic beauty brands, which are gaining consumer recognition and market share, particularly in the context of rational consumption [4][24].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" [7] Core Insights - In January-February 2025, the total electricity consumption increased by 1.3% year-on-year, with a notable slowdown in growth primarily due to temperature effects [2] - The total electricity generation from large-scale power plants in January-February 2025 was 14,921 billion kWh, a decrease of 1.3% year-on-year, with varying performance across different energy sources [4] - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential of electricity consumption driven by the transition to clean energy and the acceleration of electricity market reforms [5] Summary by Sections 1. Electricity Consumption Situation - Total electricity consumption in January-February 2025 was 15,564 billion kWh, up 1.3% year-on-year, with a decline in growth rate of 9.7 percentage points [2] - Breakdown by industry: - Primary industry: 20.8 billion kWh, up 8.2% - Secondary industry: 9,636 billion kWh, up 0.9% - Tertiary industry: 2,980 billion kWh, up 3.6% - Urban and rural residential consumption: 2,740 billion kWh, up 0.1% [2] 2. Electricity Production Situation - Total electricity generation in January-February 2025 was 14,921 billion kWh, down 1.3% year-on-year, with a decline in growth rate of 9.6 percentage points [4] - Breakdown by energy source: - Hydropower: 1,461 billion kWh, up 4.5% - Thermal power: 10,214 billion kWh, down 5.8% - Nuclear power: 746 billion kWh, up 7.7% - Wind power: 1,776 billion kWh, up 10.4% - Photovoltaic power: 724 billion kWh, up 27.4% [4] 3. Investment Recommendations - Long-term outlook remains positive for electricity consumption due to the ongoing transition to clean energy and increased electrification [5] - Short to medium-term, the report suggests monitoring the performance of thermal power companies due to falling coal prices and changing supply-demand dynamics [5] - Recommended stocks include Huaneng International and Huaneng Hydropower, with a focus on companies with strong performance stability and high dividend rates [5]

电力行业 煤价持续走低，看好火电度电盈利修复 分析师：孙菲 登记编号：S0500524010002 2025年3月24日 核心观点 ◼ 煤炭库存高位，煤价有望继续调整 ➢ 截至2025/3/17 ，秦皇岛5500K动力煤市场价为690元/吨，较2024年底下降11.5%（约下降90元/吨）。今年3月初以来国内主流港口煤 炭库存、京唐港动力煤库存平均水平均处历史同期高位。2025年1-2月我国煤及褐煤进口均价为85美元/吨，较2024年进口均价下降 11.2%。展望二季度，随着气温逐渐回升，供暖需求下降，动力煤逐渐进入淡季，煤价有望震荡下行。预计2025全年煤价中枢整体有 望进一步下移，推动火电企业燃料成本下行，盈利得到持续修复。 ◼ 长协煤履约要求放宽，火电企业成本改善弹性有望放大 ➢ 2025年电煤中长期合同签订履约工作中对煤企签定量和双方履约比例要求均有放缓，煤企签订量最低要求从2024年"自有资源量 80%"降至"自有资源量75%"，履约要求从2024年"全年足额完成履约任务"变更为"全年原则上足额履约，最低不得低于90%"。 目前煤价持续走弱，长协煤履约要求放宽有利于火电企业灵活调整煤炭采购结构，企业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [5] Core Views - The coal sector has shown a relative performance improvement, with a decline of 0.86% compared to a 2.29% drop in the CSI 300 index, indicating a 1.43 percentage point outperformance [7] - Domestic thermal coal prices are under pressure due to seasonal demand weakness, while overseas prices are recovering [8] - Coking coal prices are declining, but demand is gradually improving as downstream industries resume operations [9] - The report suggests that while thermal coal prices are weak, seasonal recovery in non-electric industries may offset some demand losses, leading to potential stabilization in coking coal prices [10] Summary by Sections Market Review - The coal sector's PE valuation is at 10.43 times, at the 51.96 percentile over the past decade, while the PB valuation is at 1.23 times, at the 30.59 percentile [7] Domestic and International Coal Prices - As of March 23, domestic thermal coal prices are at 680 RMB/ton, down 1.45% week-on-week, while international prices for Australian, European, and South African coal have seen slight increases [8] - Domestic coking coal prices are at 1150 RMB/ton, down 4.17% week-on-week, with international prices also declining [9] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading coal companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable operations, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as undervalued coking coal companies with improving operational conditions [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry experienced a decline of 2.82% last week, underperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 0.53 percentage points. The industry valuation (TTM P/E) fell by 1.7x to 65.9x, currently at 81% of its historical percentile [6][16] - Despite a slight weakening in rare earth prices, the downward space is limited due to stable production and relatively tight supply at the mining end. The demand side shows no significant new orders, keeping prices stable for now. The overall industry performance is still in a recovery phase from the bottom [13][39] Market Performance - Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown relative returns of 1% over one month, 6% over three months, and 11% over twelve months. Absolute returns were 0% over one month, 5% over three months, and 21% over twelve months [5] - The rare earth magnetic materials industry saw a 2.82% decline last week, with a valuation drop to 65.9x, indicating a high historical valuation level [6][16] Price Trends - Last week, the prices of light rare earth minerals remained stable, with mixed carbonate rare earth ore at 26,000 CNY/ton, and heavy rare earth minerals also holding steady [7] - The price of praseodymium-neodymium weakened slightly, with the average price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 444,500 CNY/ton, and the metal price down by 0.18% to 544,500 CNY/ton [8] - Dysprosium prices fell by 2.05% to 1,675 CNY/kg, while terbium prices decreased by 0.98% to 6,560 CNY/kg [9] Industry Demand - The production and sales of household air conditioners showed double-digit growth in January and February 2025, with production at 16.785 million units (up 42.9%) and sales at 16.790 million units (up 36.3%) [11][12] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains high, and the wind power sector continues to show strong growth potential despite a significant drop in new installations [13][39] Supply Dynamics - The overall capacity utilization in the industry still needs improvement, and the current overcapacity requires further demand digestion. The pressure on supply-demand balance continues to suppress industry price levels and profit margins [13][39]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3] Core Views - The lithium battery materials industry experienced a decline of 4.03% last week, underperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 1.74 percentage points. The industry valuation (TTM P/E) fell by 1.84 times to 32.34 times, currently at 21.8% of its historical percentile [5][13] - The demand for lithium battery materials is recovering, but the supply remains excessive, leading to low overall operating rates in the industry. The long-term demand in the energy storage market is expected to benefit from policy continuity and downstream procurement support, but the supply-side differentiation continues [13][50] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Last week, the lithium battery materials industry fell by 4.03%, underperforming the benchmark by 1.74 percentage points. The industry valuation decreased to 32.34 times, which is at 21.8% of its historical percentile [5][13] Positive Electrode Materials - Last week, the prices of ternary precursors remained stable, while lithium source prices decreased. The prices of ternary materials showed a slight increase, with head enterprises recovering demand. The inventory increased due to supply chain fluctuations [6][10] - The prices for ternary precursor NCM111, NCM523, NCM622, and NCM811 were stable at 80,500 CNY/ton, 79,000 CNY/ton, 81,000 CNY/ton, and 89,000 CNY/ton respectively [6] Phosphate Iron Lithium Materials - The price of phosphate iron lithium for power applications increased by 0.56% to 36,000 CNY/ton, while the storage type rose by 0.74% to 34,000 CNY/ton. The overall demand in March was stronger compared to February, driven by increased demand from the power sector [7][10] Electrolytes - The price of lithium phosphate remained stable at 60,500 CNY/ton, with solvent and additive prices mostly steady. The overall demand for electrolytes was acceptable, with slight increases in demand from leading enterprises [9][10] Negative Electrode Materials - The average market price for artificial graphite negative electrode materials remained stable at 33,400 CNY/ton, while natural graphite prices held steady at 35,600 CNY/ton. The production of negative electrode materials increased by 2.21% to 45,950 tons [10][11] Membranes - The price of dry-process membranes increased by 4.88% to 0.43 CNY/sqm, while wet-process membranes remained stable at 1.01 CNY/sqm. The production of membranes increased by 1.03% to 49,000 million sqm [11][12] Investment Recommendations - The current industry valuation is at a historical low, providing some potential for rebound. However, the overall profitability of the sector is constrained by supply-demand imbalances, and the industry is expected to maintain low prices and profitability levels [13][50]

证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 24 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 医疗服务行业周报 医保统计快报发布，支付方式变革创新产业受益 --医疗服务行业周报 3.17-3.23 相关研究： 核心要点： 上周医药生物下跌 1.41%，位列申万一级行业第 20 位 上周申万一级行业医药生物下跌 1.41%，涨幅排名位列申万 31 个一级行业 第 20 位。沪深 300 指数下跌 2.29%，医药跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.88%。申万 医药生物二级子行业医疗服务 II 报收 5544.64 点，下跌 1.65%；中药 II 报 收 6383.36 点，上涨 0.02%；化学制药Ⅱ报收 10385.97 点，下跌 1.12%； 生物制品Ⅱ报收 5962.42 点，下跌 1.10%；医药商业Ⅱ报收 5053.71 点， 下跌 2.72%；医疗器械 II 报收 6261.97 点，下跌 2.61%。细分板块来看， 医药商业跌幅较大。 从医疗服务板块公司的表现来看，表现居前的公司有：创新医疗（+5.2%）、 药明康德（+4.8%）、诺泰生物（+4.3%）、华厦眼科（+4.2%）、ST 中珠（+3.9%）； 表现靠后的公司 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 24 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 机械行业周报 前 2 月我国机床和工业机器人产量保持增长，下游需 求有望持续复苏 ——机械行业周报（03.17~03.23） 相关研究： 1.《20250303湘财证券-机械行业：2 月我国制造业PMI为50.2%，环比回 升1.1个百分点》 2.《20250317湘财证券-机械行业： 多数品种销量保持增长，工程机械 复苏有望持续》 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 9.4 10.5 17.3 绝对收益 10.7 9.9 28.6 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 24/03 24/05 24/07 24/09 24/11 25/01 机械设备(申万) 沪深300 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：轩鹏程 证书编号：S0500521070003 Tel：(8621) 50295321 Email：xuanpc@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 上周机械设备行业下跌 0.8%，跑赢大盘 ...

行业研究 银行业周报 一季度货币政策例会召开，金融与财政协同加强 证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 24 日 湘财证券研究所 | 1.《2025年度策略：积极政策下的 | | | --- | --- | | 股息选择》 | 2024.12.19 | | 2.《宽信用力度有望加强，银行股 | | | 高股息优势延续》 | 2025.01.07 | | 3.《结构性工具支持宽信用，金融 | | | 风险防控取得成效》 | 2025.03.18 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -1.08 4.93 13.49 | | 1.52 | 6.79 | 25.64 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对收益 | | | | 证书编号：S0500523080002 Tel：(8621) 50295327 Email：guoyp@xcsc.com 国人寿金融中心10楼 相关研究： 核心要点： 市场回顾：银行指数上涨 1.10%，农商行市场表现领先 本期（2025.03.17 至 2025.03.23）银行(申万) 指数上涨 1.10%， ...