Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall shipping derivatives market shows a mixed trend. The Shanghai and China export container freight rates have different changes, with some routes experiencing declines and others increases. The EC market is expected to be in a weak - oscillating pattern, and short - term observation is recommended, focusing on the actual implementation of December freight rates and the effectiveness of January price increase letters [5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai and China Export Container Freight Rates - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The current values of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) are 1394 and 1123 respectively, with the previous values being 1451 and 1094, showing a - 3.98% and 2.63% change. For different routes, SCFI - US West has a current value of 1645, a previous value of 1823, and a - 9.76% change; SCFIS - US West has a current value of 1107, a previous value of 1238, and a - 10.58% change; SCFI - US East has a current value of 2384, a previous value of 2600, and a - 8.31% change; SCFI - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1367, a previous value of 1417, and a - 3.53% change; SCFIS - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1357, a previous value of 1504, and a - 9.77% change; SCFI - Mediterranean has a current value of 2055, a previous value of 2029, and a 1.28% change [5]. 3.2 EC Contracts - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: For EC contracts, the current values of EC2506, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 1358.2, 1488.1, 1110.0, 1779.7, 1568.6, and 1142.1 respectively, with corresponding previous values being 1350.0, 1474.3, 1099.1, 1773.9, 1556.1, and 1133.2, showing changes of 0.61%, 0.94%, 0.99%, 0.33%, 0.80%, and 0.79% [5]. - **Position Changes**: The current positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 1534, 1325, 2491, 6862, 43333, and 16096 respectively, with the previous positions being 1565, 1324, 2597, 7323, 43433, and 15961, showing changes of - 31, 1, - 106, - 461, - 100, and 135 [5]. - **Monthly Spread Changes**: The current monthly spreads of 12 - 02, 12 - 04, and 02 - 04 are 211.1, 637.6, and 426.5 respectively, with the previous values being 217.8, 640.7, and 422.9, showing changes of - 6.7, - 3.1, and 3.6 [5]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Strategy - **Market Outlook**: The EC market is expected to be in a weak - oscillating pattern. The core driving factors include the implementation of December freight rates, the execution of January price increase letters, and the seasonal change of cargo volume. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the actual implementation of December freight rates and the effectiveness of January price increase letters. If the December freight rates are implemented at a 20% discount, the EC2602 contract may test the 1500 - 1700 point range; if the price - holding is successful, the 02 contract may oscillate upwards to the 1800 - 1900 point range [7]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see, as the 12 - contract is gradually losing trading value [8].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current macro - level is in a relative vacuum period. The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, and trading volume remains low. Short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving main line to push the index higher [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Equity Index - The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, with low trading volume. Short - term market differences will be digested in the index's shock adjustment, and a new driving main line is awaited for further upward movement [1]. Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the rise [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Market sentiment is volatile recently, and copper prices may fluctuate [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drivers and volatile macro sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level [1]. - Alumina: Domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released. Production and inventory are both increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Prices are oscillating around the cost line [1]. - Zinc: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment is expected to be volatile. Although there are short - term improvement signs in the domestic fundamentals, the oversupply pattern remains. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Nickel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term after the China - US presidential call. Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals. With a planned monthly production cut of about 6,000 metric tons in Indonesian intermediate products, nickel prices have a repair expectation if the macro sentiment improves. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains oversupplied [1]. - Stainless Steel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term. The price of raw material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. Steel mills' production cuts in November are limited. Stainless - steel futures are looking for a bottom in oscillation. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy, and pay attention to short - selling hedging opportunities at high prices [1]. - Tin: The Fed's differences are increasing, and the macro situation is volatile. Indonesia's tin exports have declined significantly. Considering the un - repaired tin - ore supply and terminal demand expectations, tin is still regarded as bullish in the long term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: There are still differences regarding a December interest - rate cut. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to US economic data [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years. The impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production in November has decreased, and there is a joint production cut in the organic - silicon industry [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long term. Terminal installations will increase marginally in the fourth quarter. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Steel and Iron - Rebar: In the off - season, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand. During the short - term macro vacuum period, although the valuation is low, the price increase space is limited. The virtual value accumulation strategy can be appropriately participated in [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. During the short - term macro vacuum period, the basis is acceptable. The spot - futures positive arbitrage can be appropriately participated in, or option strategies can be used to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1]. - Ferroalloy: Short - term production profits are poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is acceptable, but supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure. The price rebound is limited [1]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: It follows the glass market, but supply and demand are average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the current decline of coke and coking coal is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment is expected to start around mid - December. For now, a short - term trading strategy is recommended for single - side trading, and a wait - and - see attitude is advisable for the long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil: The rumor that "the US delays the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive impact on US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic soybean - oil basis may be stable or weak under high - pressure crushing. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream start - up remains low, but spinning mills' inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver" [1]. - Sugar: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and raw - sugar prices are under pressure. The supply pressure of the domestic new crop has increased year - on - year, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the decline of raw sugar [1]. - Corn: Short - term supply is tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, logistics tensions in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory. The spot price is firm, and the futures price has rebounded. It is recommended to be cautious about going long before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - Bean Meal: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans, which may support the US soybean market. Without obvious weather problems, the market is expected to shift to trading the abundant supply of South American new crops from December to January. It is recommended to short MO5 on rallies [1]. Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products. After new warehouse - receipt registration, a 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - Logs: The fundamentals of logs have weakened, but this has been priced into the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Livestock - Pig: The current spot price is gradually stabilizing. Supported by demand and with the weight of pigs for slaughter not fully reduced, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy - Crude Oil: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and it follows the crude - oil market [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - Natural Rubber (HK): The raw - material cost has strong support, the spot - futures price difference is at a low level, and the number of RU盘 - face warehouse receipts is low after the cancellation of old - rubber warehouse receipts [1]. - BR Rubber: The cost support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, high - start - up and high - inventory have not yet suppressed the price. There are signs of price stabilization, and the subsequent rebound amplitude should be noted [1]. Petrochemicals - PTA: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of aromatics - production devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are under rotational inspection, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: The decline in crude - oil prices has led to a fall in ethylene - glycol prices. The increase in coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol prices [1]. - Short - Fiber: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. Short - fiber prices continue to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased. The price of pure benzene in the US Gulf has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads. The benzene - blending logic in the US has promoted the price increase of pure benzene [1]. Plastics - PE: Export sentiment has eased, but domestic demand is insufficient. There is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large due to high operating rates and relatively low downstream improvement and expectations. The high price of propylene monomers provides strong cost support [1]. - PVC: The futures price is returning to fundamentals. With fewer subsequent overhauls and new - capacity release, supply pressure is increasing, while demand is weakening and orders are poor [1]. Others - Caustic Soda: Some alumina plants' delivery schedules have slowed down. There are fewer subsequent overhauls, and there is inventory - accumulation pressure in Shandong. The price of liquid chlorine is high, and the absolute price is low. There is a risk of short - squeeze in near - month contracts due to limited warehouse receipts [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas fundamentals are continuously loose, and CP/FEI prices are weakening. The PG price has repaired its valuation, combustion demand is gradually restarting, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable with chemical - industry rigid demand support [1]. - Shipping: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

投资咨询业务资格:证监详可【2012】31号 宏观金融数据日报 对于股指来说,预计年内市场分歧将在股指震荡调整中逐步消化,待 新的驱动主线带来股指进一步上行。同时,中央汇金的托底功能为指数提 供了缓冲,下行风险预计可控。短期可重点关注海外流动性变化信号,以 及国内政策会否提前发力。 | | 项目 | 当月合约 | 下月合约 | 当季合约 | 下季合约 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | H | IF升贴水 | 4.22% | 4.44% | 2.97% | 3.41% | | 贴 | IH升贴水 | 3.05% | 2.09% | 0.98% | 1.11% | | 水 | IC升贴水 | 8.79% | 9.16% | 9.26% | 10.43% | | 情 况 | IM升贴水 | 12.49% | 12.18% | 11.89% | 12.18% | 注:括号里的数值为年化计算后的升贴水率(标绿为升水,标红为贴水）。 数据来源:wind 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确 性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - PX prices are rebounding due to limited production despite the end of some planned maintenance and capacity recovery, driven by high gasoline profit margins and low pure benzene prices. PTA supply has slightly shrunk, polyester production remains stable with a load above 90%, and domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. The downstream weaving industry is performing well and export demand may improve [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports has increased significantly compared to last week, with an increase of 120,000 tons. The ethylene price cannot support the strengthening of the ethylene glycol price, and new device startups are pressuring the price. The coal price increase does not provide strong cost support, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. The reduction of tariffs after the Sino - US trade negotiation may increase textile and clothing export demand [2]. Summary by Directory Market Data - INE crude oil price increased from 447.4 yuan/barrel on November 21, 2025, to 447.9 yuan/barrel on November 24, 2025, with a change of 0.5 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC spread increased from 1414.7 yuan/ton to 1425.1 yuan/ton, with a change of 10.37 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.4351 to 1.4378, with a change of 0.0027 [2]. - CFR China PX price increased from 824 to 826, with a change of 2; PX - naphtha spread increased from 262 to 264, with a change of 2 [2]. - PTA main contract futures price increased from 4666 yuan/ton to 4680 yuan/ton, with a change of 14 yuan/ton; PTA spot price increased from 4615 yuan/ton to 4630 yuan/ton, with a change of 15 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA spot processing fee increased from 191 yuan/ton to 212 yuan/ton, with a change of 21 yuan/ton; PTA futures processing fee increased from 257 yuan/ton to 262 yuan/ton, with a change of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA main contract basis increased from - 63 to - 49, with a change of 14; PTA warehouse receipt quantity increased from 117,192 to 117,828, with a change of 636 [2]. - MEG main contract futures price increased from 3808 yuan/ton to 3884 yuan/ton, with a change of 76 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha spread decreased from - 151.12 yuan/ton to - 151.31 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.2 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG domestic price increased from 3852 yuan/ton to 3890 yuan/ton, with a change of 38 yuan/ton; MEG main contract basis decreased from 35 to 33, with a change of - 2 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 87.39% [2]. - PTA start - up rate remained at 72.11% [2]. - MEG start - up rate increased from 60.14% to 60.33%, with a change of 0.19% [2]. - Polyester load remained at 89.19% [2]. Polyester Product Data - POY150D/48F price decreased from 6580 yuan/ton to 6545 yuan/ton, with a change of - 35 yuan/ton; POY cash flow decreased from 94 to 33, with a change of - 61 [2]. - FDY150D/96F price remained at 6825 yuan/ton; FDY cash flow decreased from - 161 to - 187, with a change of - 26 [2]. - DTY150D/48F price remained at 7865 yuan/ton; DTY cash flow decreased from 179 to 153, with a change of - 26 [2]. - Long - filament sales rate increased from 39% to 43%, with a change of 4% [2]. - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price increased from 6340 yuan/ton to 6350 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton; polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased from 204 to 188, with a change of - 16 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber sales rate increased from 31% to 65%, with a change of 34% [2]. - Semi - bright chip price increased from 5540 yuan/ton to 5545 yuan/ton, with a change of 5 yuan/ton; chip cash flow decreased from - 46 to - 67, with a change of - 21 [2]. - Chip sales rate decreased from 75% to 60%, with a change of - 15% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently restarting and is expected to produce products soon, having stopped for maintenance around November 17 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the PX market has shown a rebound due to multiple factors. Despite the end of some planned maintenance and the gradual recovery of production capacity, PX output is still limited. The main drivers are the soaring gasoline profit margins, which prompt refineries to reduce raw material input in aromatic units and increase gasoline production, and the drop of benzene prices to a near - three - year low, leading refineries to lower the load of reforming and STDP units to suppress benzene output and thus limit PX supply [2]. - The PTA supply side has slightly shrunk, while polyester operation remains stable with a load above 90%. Domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. Although the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" period has ended, downstream weaving has performed well, and export demand may improve. The costs of bottle chips and short fibers follow these trends [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4615 to 4630, a change of 15; MEG inner - market price rose from 3852 to 3890, a change of 38; PTA closing price went up from 4666 to 4680, a change of 14; MEG closing price increased from 3808 to 3884, a change of 76 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6340 to 6350, a change of 10; short - fiber basis decreased from 126 to 125, a change of - 1; 12 - 1 spread decreased from 50 to 68, a change of - 18; polyester short - fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2]. - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5400; the price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 940 to 950, a change of 10 [2]. - East China water bottle chip price increased from 5682 to 5709, a change of 27; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 5682 to 5709, a change of 27; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 5782 to 5809, a change of 27; outer - market water bottle chip price increased from 755 to 760, a change of 5; bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 446 to 447, a change of 1 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10300; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3960 to 3950, a change of - 10; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300; polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1678 to 1635, a change of - 43 [2]. - The price of cotton 328 increased from 14335 to 14430, a change of 95; the price of primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) remained unchanged at 7080; the cash flow of hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D decreased from 644 to 618, a change of - 26; the price of primary low - melting - point short - fiber remained unchanged at 7580 [2]. 2. Market Conditions - In the short - fiber market, the price of polyester short - fiber production plants is stable, and the price of traders is warm. Customers purchase on demand, and the plant's production and sales are average. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester short - fiber in the East China market is 6140 - 6460 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it is 6260 - 6580 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it is 6190 - 6350 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery [2]. - In the bottle - chip market, the mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 5670 - 5780 yuan/ton, with the average price rising by 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuate narrowly. Most supply - side offers are temporarily stable, the market trading atmosphere is average, downstream terminal purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and market sentiment is cautious [2]. 3. Load and Production - Sales Rates - The direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, a change of 0.95% [3]. - The polyester short - fiber production - sales rate increased from 35.00% to 68.00%, a change of 33.00% [3]. - The polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00% [3]. - The recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly. The current futures price is close to the import cost of deliverable goods, with limited room for further increase. Consider 1 - 3 reverse spreads or 1 - 5 reverse spreads [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Futures Prices (yuan/ton)**: On November 24, 2025, SP2601 was 5220 (-0.15% day - on - day, -4.64% week - on - week), SP2512 was 4712 (0.17% day - on - day, -3.84% week - on - week), and SP2605 was 5278 (-0.15% day - on - day, -3.55% week - on - week) [6] - **Spot Prices (yuan/ton)**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5400 (-0.92% day - on - day, -2.70% week - on - week), Russian Needle was 5170 (-0.58% day - on - day, -4.26% week - on - week), and Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4400 (0.00% day - on - day, 0.00% week - on - week) [6] - **Outer - Disk Quotes (USD/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star was 680 (-2.86% month - on - month), Japanese Neko was 530 (3.92% month - on - month), and Chilean Venus was 590 (0.00% month - on - month) [6] - **Import Costs (yuan/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star was 5559 (-2.83% month - on - month), Brazilian Goldfish was 4344 (3.87% month - on - month), and Chilean Venus was 4830 (0.00% month - on - month) [6] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Import Volume (10,000 tons)**: In October 2025, coniferous pulp was 69.1 (0.00% month - on - month) and broadleaf pulp was 131.8 (-2.80% month - on - month) [6] - **Domestic Production (10,000 tons)**: For broadleaf pulp, the production on November 20, 2025, was 23; for chemimechanical pulp, it was 23.7 [6] - **Inventory (10,000 tons)**: As of November 20, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 217.3 (3.0% week - on - week), and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 20.9 [6] - **Finished - Paper Production (10,000 tons)**: Double - offset paper was 20.70, coated paper was 8.00, tissue paper was 28.52, and white cardboard was 36.20 [6] 3.3 Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 24, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 458 (quantile level 0.948), and the Silver Star basis was 688 (quantile level 0.905) [6] - **Import Profit**: For coniferous pulp Silver Star, it was - 159 (quantile level 0.378); for broadleaf pulp Goldfish, it was 56 (quantile level 0.704) [6] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Chilean Arauco's October offer for coniferous pulp Silver Star was 680 USD/ton, down 20 USD/ton; the offer for broadleaf pulp Star was 540 USD/ton, unchanged [6] - **Demand**: Recently, wood - pulp paper producers have issued price - increase letters. Only the implementation of white cardboard price increases is good, and its production is stable [6] 3.5 Inventory - As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 217.3 tons, an increase of 6.3 tons from the previous period, a 3.0% week - on - week increase. The inventory has been accumulating for two consecutive weeks [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, with the ongoing debate about the Fed's December rate cut, precious metal prices are likely to maintain high - level volatility. It is recommended to focus on the economic data released by the US. The strategy is to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. - In the long - term, as the Fed remains in the rate - cut cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, the credit risk of the US dollar will increase. With the continued gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise. Long - term investors are advised to allocate by buying on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On November 24, 2025, compared with November 21, London Gold Spot was at $4054.27/ounce (up 0.6%), London Silver Spot was at $49.88/ounce (up 1.0%), COMEX Gold was at $4050.80/ounce (up 0.6%), COMEX Silver was at $49.52/ounce (up 1.2%), AU2512 was at 927.36 yuan/gram (up 0.4%), AG2512 was at 11810 yuan/kg (up 1.0%), AU (T + D) was at 926.00 yuan/gram (up 0.4%), and AG (T + D) was at 11803 yuan/kg (up 1.0%) [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: From November 21 to November 24, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price decreased by 34.3%, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price decreased by 36.4%, the spread of gold TD - London decreased by 28.2%, the spread of silver TD - London increased by 0.1%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.6%, the COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.6%, the spread of AU2602 - 2512 increased by 0.7%, and the spread of AG2602 - 2512 decreased by 87.5% [3]. Position Data - As of November 21, 2025, compared with November 20, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1040.57 tons (up 0.11%), the silver ETF - SLV was 15257.9153 tons (up 0.07%), the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold decreased by 5.65%, the non - commercial short positions increased by 4.47%, the non - commercial net long positions decreased by 8.28%, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver decreased by 3.42%, the non - commercial short positions increased by 5.55%, and the non - commercial net long positions decreased by 7.08% [3]. Inventory Data - On November 24, 2025, compared with November 21, the SHFE gold inventory was 90426.00 kg (unchanged), the SHFE silver inventory was 532299.00 kg (up 2.51%). From November 21 to November 20, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.47% to 36764181 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.26% to 460702562 troy ounces [3]. Other Market Data - From November 21 to November 24, 2025, the US dollar index decreased by 0.04% to 100.15, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.98% to 3.51%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 11.32% to 4.06%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.07% to 7.08, the VIX decreased by 1.13% to 23.43, the S&P 500 increased by 0.98% to 6602.99, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 1.33% to 57.98 [4]. Market Analysis - **Market Review**: On November 24, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.52% to 930.32 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 1.14% to 11808 yuan/kg [4]. - **Influencing Factors**: Fed officials soothed the market, saying that further rate cuts were expected in the future, and the expectation of a December rate cut rebounded, supporting precious metal prices. However, the Russian central bank's sale of physical gold, the US' 28 - point plan, and the joint statement of the US and Ukraine may ease the geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, suppressing precious metal prices. For silver, in addition to its absolute price following the gold price trend, the tight domestic spot market may limit the downside space of silver prices, and the futures term structure may be maintained after turning into a B - structure [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, putting downward pressure on raw sugar prices. The supply pressure of domestic new crops has increased year-on-year. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will face upward pressure and mainly follow the trend of raw sugar [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Sugar Spot Market - In Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi, the closing price on November 24, 2025, was 5615, with a decline of 60, a basis of 245 against SR01, and a decline of 77 in the basis [4] - In Rizhao, Shandong, the closing price was 5800, with no change, an ascension and discount of 100, a basis of 330 against SR01, and a decline of 17 in the basis [4] 3.2 Domestic Sugar Futures Market - The closing price of SR01 was 5370, with an increase of 17; the closing price of SR05 was 5319, with an increase of 17; the spread between SR01 - 05 was 51, with no change [4] 3.3 Exchange Rate and International Commodity Market - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1236, with a decline of 0.0081; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818, with an increase of 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084, with a decline of 0.0004 [4] - The price of ICE raw sugar main contract was 14.77, with no change; the price of London white sugar main contract was 573, with an increase of 3; the price of Brent crude oil main contract was 62.51, with no change [4] 3.4 Other Data - The domestic white sugar industrial inventory was 2000 (no unit specified) [4] - The profit of Brazilian sugar imported without tariff quota was shown in the range of - 2500 to 1500 (no unit specified) [4]

01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 沪胶仓单大幅注销，橡胶整体偏强震荡 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 天然橡胶:沪胶仓单大幅注销，橡胶整体偏强震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | （1）国内产区：本周云南产区原料价格基本持稳，本周多数时间处于降雨中，导致割胶处于停滞状态，市场出现"有价无市"局面。海南产区局部地区有 降水扰动，随着气温开始出现下降，胶水干含有所下滑，整体原料产出受到抑制，当地加工厂陆续进入冬储备货阶段，对原料延续加价采购，收购价格表 | | | | 现坚挺。（2）泰国产区：东北部地区维持旺产期产出，泰南雨量较大，影响割胶工作，胶水及杯胶价格呈现上涨趋势 。（3）越南产区：越南产区天气有 | | | | 所改善，主产区降雨减弱，割胶作业条件优化， ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Precious Metals Data Daily [4] - Date: November 24, 2025 [5] - Research Center: Precious Metals and New Energy Research Center [5] - Analyst: Bai Suna [5] - Investment Consulting Number: Z0013700 [5] - Qualification Number: F3023916 [5] Group 2: Price Tracking Gold and Silver Prices - On November 21, 2025, the prices of London Gold Spot, London Silver Spot, COMEX Gold, COMEX Silver, AU2512, AG2512, AU (T+D), and AG (T+D) were $4030.46/oz, $49.40/oz, $4027.40/oz, $48.94/oz, 924.00 yuan/g, 11696.00 yuan/kg, 921.93 yuan/g, and 11685.00 yuan/kg respectively [5] - Compared with November 20, 2025, the price changes were -0.9%, -3.4%, -1.0%, -3.7%, -0.9%, -2.9%, -0.9%, and -2.9% respectively [5] Price Spreads and Ratios - On November 21, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was -2.07 yuan/g, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was -11 yuan/kg [5] - The price changes compared with November 20, 2025 were -12.3% and 83.3% respectively [5] Group 3: Position and Inventory Data Position Data - As of November 21, 2025, the holdings of Gold ETF - SPDR and Silver ETF - SLV were 1040.57 tons and 15257.9153 tons respectively [5] - The changes compared with November 20, 2025 were 0.11% and 0.07% respectively [5] Inventory Data - On November 21, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory and SHFE silver inventory were 90426.00 kg and 519271.00 kg respectively [5] - The changes compared with November 20, 2025 were 0.00% and -2.96% respectively [5] Group 4: Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market - On November 21, 2025, the USD/CNY central parity rate was 7.09, the US Dollar Index was 100.15, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.51%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.06% [5] - Compared with November 20, 2025, the changes were -0.04%, -0.07%, -1.13%, and -0.98% respectively [5] Group 5: Market Review - On November 21, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.4% to 926.94 yuan/g, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 3.7% to 11680 yuan/kg [5] Group 6: Influencing Factors Analysis - The Fed's October meeting minutes revealed internal differences on December rate cuts. The non - release of US October non - farm payrolls and CPI data led to a sharp drop in the probability of a December rate cut, which was negative for precious metal prices. However, Fed officials' remarks on Friday night eased the liquidity tightening risk, and precious metal prices rebounded [6] - Russia's central bank's sale of physical gold reserves under Western sanctions initially pressured gold prices, but the impact on international gold prices may be limited. Most central banks globally still maintain net gold purchases, providing long - term support for gold prices [6] - If progress is made in the Russia - Ukraine peace process, it may temporarily suppress precious metal prices [6] - US economic data shows that the economy has resilience but also faces downward risks [6] - Silver prices follow gold prices, but tight domestic spot supply and falling inventory may limit the downside space [6] Group 7: Strategy Outlook - In the short term, precious metal prices may remain volatile at high levels. It is recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money options [6] - In the long term, the Fed is in a rate - cut cycle, and factors such as global geopolitical uncertainty, unsustainable US debt, and intensified great - power competition will increase the risk of the US dollar's credit. The long - term trend of gold prices is likely to rise, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]