| | | | | | | | EATH FANTER FOR | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/26 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 (元/吨) | RB2605 | HC2605 | 12605 | J2605 | JM2605 | 7000 6000 | | ...

3）中长期观点。中长期来看。美联储仍处于降息周期、全球地缘不确定性持续、美国债务不可持续和云国博弈加剧将长期增加美元信用网险，全球央行购金延续 等,黄金中长期重心大概率继续上移,建议长线投资者以逢低做多配置为主。 体拥备中的信息均源于公天可获得的谈外，国资策货力求准确可靠。但不对上述精急的准确性及完整性以任何保证、本者告不构成个人投资建议。也未分对个别数资者接持的货资目标、购多优规或需要，投资 者需自行判随本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。据此投资。责任章负。本报告仅同能定客户推进、未经国贸繁货领数许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为中应成"国贸联络的景观 声明 我司将视情况追究法律责任。 期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 the Sept 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/11/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The supply side shows that Chile's Arauco company's October quotes for coniferous pulp Silver Star decreased by $20/ton, while quotes for broadleaf pulp Star remained flat, and quotes for natural pulp Venus also remained flat. The demand side indicates that recent price - increase letters for pulp - made paper have been issued, with only white cardboard having good implementation results, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the second batch of price - increase letters for offset paper. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory at China's mainstream pulp ports was 2173000 tons, a 3.0% increase from the previous period, showing a continuous two - week inventory accumulation [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 25, 2025, SP2601 was 5212 yuan/ton, down 0.15% day - on - day and 3.62% week - on - week; SP2512 was 4724 yuan/ton, up 0.25% day - on - day and down 3.55% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5272 yuan/ton, down 0.11% day - on - day and 2.55% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 25, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 2.70% week - on - week; the price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5170 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 4.26% week - on - week; the price of broadleaf pulp Golden Needle was 4400 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week [6]. - **Foreign Market Quotes**: The October quote for Chile's Silver Star was $680/ton, down $20/ton; the quote for Star was $540/ton, unchanged; the quote for Venus was $590/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chile's Silver Star was 5559 yuan/ton, down 2.83% month - on - month; the import cost of Chile's Venus was 4830 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 691000 tons (unchanged month - on - month), and the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 1318000 tons, down 2.80% month - on - month [6]. - **Domestic Production**: The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in the period from November 6 to November 20, 2025 [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 2173000 tons, up 63000 tons from the previous period, a 3.0% increase; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 209000 tons [6]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard also fluctuated during the period from November 6 to November 20, 2025 [6]. 3.3 Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 25, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 446, with a quantile level of 0.946; the Silver Star basis was 676, with a quantile level of 0.895 [6]. - **Import Profit**: On November 25, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 159, with a quantile level of 0.378; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 56, with a quantile level of 0.705 [6].

利润估算 种类 88224 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 N # 利 外购锂辉石精矿利润 2549 >EE 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 90365 外购锂云母精矿利润 -1850 、行业协会将建议设成本红线规范报价磷酸铁锂行业推进反内卷。由于我回磷酸铁锂行业陷入连续多年整体性亏损的窘境，产业无序竞争 账价内卷现象威肋全行业生存根基与持续发展大局，中国化学与物理电源行业协会将发布《关于参考磷酸铁锂成本指数及规范行业发展的通 知》。该《通知》建议，企业应将协会11月18日披露的行业平均成本区间作为报价的重要参考，不要突破成本红线开展低价倾销。记者? 中国化学与物理电源行业协会将自本月起，每月定期披露行业平均成本区间,为企业报价提供权威监管依据。同时，协会建议企业雇 息报送义务,企业每月定期向协会如实、完整提交产能、产量、库存等经营数据,作为行业资源配等重要参考依据。 SMM,本周碳酸锂增产585吨,去库2052吨 H a 价格运行到10万元后，市场核心关注需求旺季的延续性和江西矿端的复产节奏。上周受到去库幅度收窄和矿端复产消息，部分获利盘了结离 引发市场回调。目前，终端需求仍维持旺盛，由于前期加速上涨，市场积累了大量获利盘 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PX prices are rebounding due to limited production, driven by high gasoline profit margins and low pure benzene prices. PTA supply has slightly contracted, polyester开工 remains stable, and domestic polyester exports are optimistic. The downstream weaving industry is performing well, and export demand may improve [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports has increased significantly. The ethylene price cannot support the strengthening of the ethylene glycol price, and new device production is putting pressure on the price. Coal prices have risen, but the cost support for ethylene glycol is not strong. The Sino - US trade negotiation may increase textile and clothing export demand [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **INE Crude Oil**: Price increased from 447.9 yuan/barrel on 2025/11/24 to 448.6 yuan/barrel on 2025/11/25, with a change of 0.70 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: Price decreased from 1425.1 yuan/ton to 1396.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 29.09 yuan/ton; the PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.4378 to 1.4282, a change of - 0.0096 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: Price remained at 826, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 264 to 263, a change of - 1 [2]. - **PTA**: The main futures price decreased from 4680 yuan/ton to 4656 yuan/ton, a change of - 24.0 yuan/ton; the spot price remained at 4630 yuan/ton; the spot processing fee increased from 212.0 yuan/ton to 213.4 yuan/ton, a change of 1.3 yuan/ton; the disk processing fee decreased from 262.0 yuan/ton to 239.4 yuan/ton, a change of - 22.7 yuan/ton; the main basis increased from (49) to (43), a change of 6.0; the number of PTA warehouse receipts increased from 117828 to 118438, a change of 610 [2]. - **MEG**: The main futures price decreased from 3884 yuan/ton to 3873 yuan/ton, a change of - 11.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha decreased from (144.73) to (144.92), a change of - 0.2; the MEG domestic price increased from 3890 to 3920, a change of 30.0; the main basis decreased from 35 to 33, a change of - 2.0 [2]. 2. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - **PX**: The start - up rate decreased from 87.39% to 86.48%, a change of - 0.91% [2]. - **PTA**: The start - up rate increased from 72.11% to 73.44%, a change of 1.33% [2]. - **MEG**: The start - up rate increased from 60.33% to 61.48%, a change of 1.15% [2]. - **Polyester**: The load remained at 89.19%, a change of 0.00% [2]. 3. Product Price and Cash Flow of Polyester Fibers - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price decreased from 6545 to 6500, a change of - 45.0; POY cash flow decreased from 33 to (22), a change of - 55.0; FDY150D/96F price decreased from 6755 to 6755, a change of - 70.0; FDY cash flow decreased from (187) to (267), a change of - 80.0; DTY150D/48F price decreased from 7865 to 7855, a change of - 10.0; DTY cash flow decreased from 153 to 133, a change of - 20.0; the filament sales rate increased from 43% to 96%, a change of 53% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple price increased from 6350 to 6385, a change of 35; the staple fiber cash flow increased from 188 to 213, a change of 25.0; the staple fiber sales rate increased from 65% to 79%, a change of 14% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The semi - bright chip price increased from 5545 to 5550, a change of 5.0; the chip cash flow decreased from (67) to (72), a change of - 5.0; the chip sales rate increased from 60% to 65%, a change of 5% [2]. 4. Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China is restarting and is expected to produce products soon. The device was shut down for maintenance around November 17 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The inter - bank market liquidity remains loose, with the central repurchase rates of major tenors moving down. The LPR quotes remained unchanged in November. The stock index rebounded, and it is expected that market differences will be gradually digested through index fluctuations this year. In the short term, the index will mainly operate in a volatile manner, and the downside risk is expected to be controllable. Short - term attention can be paid to overseas liquidity change signals and whether domestic policies will take effect in advance [4][6] Summary by Relevant Content Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.32 with a - 0.05bp change, DR007 at 1.45 with a - 1.62bp change, GC001 at 1.42 with a 0.00bp change, GC007 at 1.53 with a - 2.50bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with a 0.00bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.34 with a - 0.10bp change, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.55 with a 1.30bp change, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.81 with a - 0.30bp change, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.04 with a - 2.00bp change [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%. 4075 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan [3] Stock Index Data - **Index Closing Prices and Changes**: The CSI 300 closed at 4490, up 0.95%; the SSE 50 at 2968, up 0.60%; the CSI 500 at 6954.6, up 1.25%; the CSI 1000 at 7249.9, up 1.31%. The trading volume of the two markets reached 18121 billion yuan, an increase of 844 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors generally rose, with education, gaming, precious metals and others leading the gains, while the shipbuilding sector fell sharply [5] - **Futures Contracts**: For the IF contract, the closing price was 4473, up 0.9%, the trading volume was 108933 with a - 4.2% change, and the open interest was 264574 with a - 1.5% change; for the IH contract, the closing price was 2959, up 0.5%, the trading volume was 43866 with a - 2.0% change, and the open interest was 88482 with a - 1.1% change; for the IC contract, the closing price was 6900, up 1.1%, the trading volume was 134717 with a 2.1% change, and the open interest was 258131 with a 2.1% change; for the IM contract, the closing price was 7172, up 1.1%, the trading volume was 213192 with a - 4.8% change, and the open interest was 367936 with a - 2.5% change [5] Futures Premium and Discount - **IF Premium and Discount**: The current - month contract was 5.89%, the next - month contract was 5.19%, the current - quarter contract was 3.28%, and the next - quarter contract was 3.58% - **IH Premium and Discount**: The current - month contract was 4.61%, the next - month contract was 3.31%, the current - quarter contract was 1.52%, and the next - quarter contract was 1.37% - **IC Premium and Discount**: The current - month contract was 11.94%, the next - month contract was 10.90%, the current - quarter contract was 9.98%, and the next - quarter contract was 10.80% - **IM Premium and Discount**: The current - month contract was 16.35%, the next - month contract was 14.19%, the current - quarter contract was 12.96%, and the next - quarter contract was 12.81% [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PX market price has rebounded recently due to multiple factors. Although some planned maintenance has ended and production capacity is gradually recovering, PX output is still limited. This is mainly driven by two key factors: the soaring gasoline profit margin, which prompts refineries to reduce raw material input in aromatic units and increase gasoline production, and the low benzene price, which leads refineries to lower the load of reforming and STDP units to limit benzene output and thus PX supply [2]. - The supply side of PTA has slightly shrunk, while the polyester operation remains stable with a load of over 90%. Domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" period is over, the downstream weaving industry performs well, and export demand may improve. The costs of bottle chips and short fibers follow these trends [2]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price remained unchanged at 4630 from November 24 to November 25, 2025; MEG inner - market price increased by 30 to 3920; PTA closing price decreased by 24 to 4656; MEG closing price decreased by 11 to 3873; 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price increased by 35 to 6385; short - fiber basis decreased by 4 to 121; 12 - 1 spread decreased by 8 to 60; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased by 6 to 246; 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained at 5400; the price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber increased by 35 to 985; East China water bottle chip price increased by 2 to 5711; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased by 2 to 5711; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased by 2 to 5811; outer - market water bottle chip price remained at 760; bottle chip spot processing fee decreased by 8 to 439; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained at 10300; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased by 35 to 3915; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained at 16300; cotton 328 price increased by 45 to 14475; polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased by 40 to 1595; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained at 7080; hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased by 10 to 608; primary low - melting - point short - fiber price remained at 7580 [2]. Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The main futures of polyester staple fiber rose 26 to 6234. The spot market saw stable prices from production factories and slightly increased prices from traders. Downstream buyers purchased as needed, and factory sales were limited. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6170 - 6460 for cash on delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it was 6290 - 6580 for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it was 6210 - 6350 for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery [2]. - Bottle chips: Raw materials provided strong support, and the processing fee on the futures market had been compressed to around 380 yuan/ton. The market center of polyester bottle chips rose, but downstream buyers were reluctant to chase the rising prices, and the trading was deadlocked. It was reported that the prices of November - December supplies were 5670 - 5740 or at a premium of 30 to 80 over the futures contract 2601, with stable basis. Some holders faced pressure to sell, and the prices of this month's supplies in the South China market were relatively low [2]. Load and Production and Sales Rates - The direct - spinning short - fiber load (weekly) increased by 0.95% to 89.32% [3]. - The polyester staple fiber production and sales rate increased by 3% to 71% [3]. - The polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66% [3]. - The recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.1% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report Core View - The report presents a daily data analysis of stock index options, including market trends, trading volume, open interest, and volatility analysis of different indices such as SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On November 24, the A-share market fluctuated and rose. The military theme was active, while the lithium mining sector had a significant correction. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05% to 3836.77 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.31%, the Northbound 50 Index rose 0.63%, the STAR 50 Index rose 0.84%, the Wind All A Index rose 0.62%, the Wind A500 Index fell 0.06%, and the CSI A500 Index rose 0.16%. The total A-share trading volume was 1.74 trillion yuan, compared with 1.98 trillion yuan the previous day. More than 4200 stocks rose [4]. 3.2 Index Trading Data | Index | Volume (billion) | Closing Price | Change (%) | Turnover (billion yuan) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | SSE 50 | 1102.71 | 2950.562 | -0.18 | 50.80 | | CSI 300 | - | 4258.07 | -0.12 | 4448.0478 | | CSI 1000 | 7156.4085 | 3689.93 | 1.26 | 240.66 | [3] 3.3 CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading Situation | Index | Call Option Volume (million contracts) | Put Option Volume (million contracts) | Volume PCR | Option Open Interest (million contracts) | Call Option Open Interest (million contracts) | Put Option Open Interest (million contracts) | Open Interest PCR | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | SSE 50 | 2.59 | 1.61 | 0.61 | 5.66 | 3.35 | 2.31 | 0.69 | | CSI 300 | 9.61 | 5.91 | 0.63 | 17.12 | 10.32 | 6.80 | 0.66 | | CSI 1000 | 12.77 | 0.70 | - | 21.64 | 8.88 | 14.98 | 0.85 | [3] 3.4 Volatility Analysis - **SSE 50 Volatility Analysis**: It includes historical volatility and a historical volatility cone, as well as a volatility smile curve and the next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4]. - **CSI 300 Volatility Analysis**: Similar to the SSE 50, it has historical volatility, a historical volatility cone, a volatility smile curve, and the next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4]. - **CSI 1000 Volatility Analysis**: Also contains historical volatility, a historical volatility cone, a volatility smile curve, and the next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4].

ITG 国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 玉米系数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号:Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/11/25 整体来说,短期基层借售,东北物流紧张,下游低库存等因素带来阶段性供应紧张,现货价格坚挺,盘面跟随反弹。卖压预期后置,供应 压力未充分释放前建议谨慎看多,关注农户售粮节奏变化和物流情况。 玉米主力合约基差(锦州港平舱价) 玉米淀粉主力合约基差 数据来源:WIND、钢联 ttp://19/20 ===== 19/20 ====== 20/21 ===== 21/22 ===== 22/23 ===== 22/23 ===== 23/24 = ======21/22 ==========22/23 == == first and the state of the succession war in the of the province of the may AX x with ! 2 : Milling 200 H -200 -200 400 -400 02/21 08/26 09/26 10/27 11/27 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term focus on China's purchase of US soybeans, which may support US soybean prices. Without obvious weather issues, the market is expected to shift to trading the supply pressure of South American new crops from December to January. The new - crop discount trend may drag down the soybean meal futures pricing. It is recommended to short M05 on rallies [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - CONB predicts that Brazil's new - crop soybean output in the 25/26 season will reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 15, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 69.0% (compared to 58.4% last week, 73.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 67.2%). As of November 13, the soybean planting rate in Argentina for the 2025/26 season was 15% (7% last week and 25% last year). There is a risk of relatively dry weather in southern Brazil and northern Argentina in the next few weeks, and the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern should be monitored. Domestic soybean meal is expected to see inventory reduction from November to December, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. The purchasing progress for December - January shipments is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [6]. Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels in the short term, which supports feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect future supply. Soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness, and recent downstream long - term contracts for soybean meal have seen high trading volumes with good提货 performance [7]. Inventory - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period and are expected to decline from November to December. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [7]. Price and Spread - On November 24, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang was 79. The spot basis of 43% soybean meal in Tianjin, Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, Dongguan, Zhanjiang, and Fangcheng was 49, - 11, - 11, - 21, - 21, - 31 respectively. The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 10, with a change of 6. The M1 - M5 spread was 196, down 13. The RM1 - 5 spread was 1500, down 3. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread of the main contract was 531, down 20 and 16 respectively [4][5]. Other Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.1056, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 145 cents per bushel, with no change. The domestic port and major oil - mill soybean inventories, major oil - mill soybean meal inventories, feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days, major oil - mill operating rates, and major oil - mill soybean crushing volumes are presented in the form of historical data trends [5].