1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector currently has no prominent contradictions, with both valuation and driving factors lacking significant trading opportunities. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market is gradually entering a holiday state, while the futures prices are still fluctuating, indicating a less - than - optimistic market expectation for the future or the post - holiday period [7]. - For steel, it's advisable to wait and see in the short term. For hot - rolled coils, positive spreads can be rolled for operations. For coal and coke, it's recommended to cash in spot positions opportunistically before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures when prices rise. For iron ore, it's suggested that long - term investors short at resistance levels [7][66][112]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Influencing Factors - **Supply**: Bullish. Hot metal production has a slight fluctuation, with this week's output increasing by 0.6 to 228.56 wt. The daily consumption of scrap steel has declined. As the Spring Festival approaches, the EAF operating rate is steadily decreasing, but there is still room for production resumption after the festival [7]. - **Demand**: Bearish. Building material demand shows more obvious seasonality, with significantly reduced transactions, and the spot market is gradually closing for the holiday. Plate demand remains stable, and the demand for medium and heavy plates is relatively strong, related to downstream shipbuilding and wind power steel demand. Overall, the market is mainly driven by rigid demand, and speculative demand has almost stalled [7]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The social inventory of the five major steel products is between the levels of 2025. Seasonal inventory accumulation continues, with the amplitude and rhythm in line with the same - period levels. Building material - related varieties have an increased inventory accumulation amplitude, while the plate inventory accumulation rhythm is relatively neutral [7]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The basis of hot - rolled coils and rebar has strengthened, and the return on cash - and - carry arbitrage has turned positive. As of Friday, the basis of rb2605 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 103, with a week - on - week increase of 21; the basis of hc2605 in the East China region (Shanghai) is - 1, with a week - on - week increase of 17 [7]. - **Profit**: Bullish. The profitability of steel mills is moderately low, with actual production profits slightly higher than statistical profits. Rebar profits are slightly better than plate profits. The profitability rate of steel mills, as reported by Steelhome, is 39.39%, with no week - on - week change [7]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. The basis of hot - rolled coils is weaker than that of rebar, making it more suitable for rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage operations. From an industrial perspective, the production profit corresponding to the futures price is meager, and the relative valuation is neutral [7]. - **Macro and Risk Appetite**: Neutral. Commodity price fluctuations have increased. As the long holiday approaches, funds have turned cautious, and the speculative atmosphere has cooled down [7]. 3.1.2 Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Viewpoint**: Wait and see. The black metal sector currently has no prominent contradictions, and due to increasing seasonal factors, the market is showing typical seasonal weakening characteristics. It is necessary to pay attention to the post - holiday demand start - up situation [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can be in a range - bound or wait - and - see state. For arbitrage, roll to widen the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. For cash - and - carry arbitrage, roll operations on hot - rolled coils [8]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke 3.2.1 Influencing Factors - **Demand**: Neutral. The steel market has entered the off - season. This week, the apparent demand for the five major steel products is 801.74 (+7.78), and the production is 823.17 (+3.58). The industry data is generally weak, with relatively stable supply, seasonal weakening of demand, and some inventory accumulation. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills this week is 228.58 (-0.12), and the steel mill profitability rate remains at 39.39% [66]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Neutral. Next week, coal mines will gradually start their holidays. Fenwei's coking coal production has increased, but production will gradually decline in the future. Mongolian coal port clearance has slowed down due to port storage capacity pressure. The offshore market for Australian coking coal is in a state of continued game - playing, with limited market liquidity and strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment [66]. - **Coke Supply**: Neutral. This week, the daily average coke production is 110.4 (+0.5), and the coking profit is - 55 (+11). After the first round of price increases was finally implemented, coke enterprise operations have increased [66]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. The winter stockpiling is almost over. This week, the market is still in the winter stockpiling cycle, and the upstream inventory is continuing to transfer to the downstream. After the first - round price increase of coke was implemented, coke enterprise operations increased, and the number of available days of steel mill inventory also increased rapidly. With only one week left before the holiday, upstream coal mines will also gradually start their holidays, and the stockpiling is basically over [66]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. After the first - round price increase of coke was implemented, there is no expectation of the next round. The cost of the first - round price increase warehouse receipts for wet - quenched and dry - quenched coke for the 05 contract is 1729/1756, and the port trade quotation is around 1728. The cost of Mongolian coal warehouse receipts is around 1130 [66]. - **Profit**: Neutral. The steel mill profitability rate is 39.39% (-1.30%), and the coking profit is - 55 (-11) [66]. 3.2.2 Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Viewpoint**: Bearish. The bullish sentiment in the commodity market has gradually faded, and the black metal market has weakened in a volatile manner. Fundamentally, the market has entered the off - season, with overall weak industrial data. It is recommended to cash in spot positions opportunistically before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures when prices rise [66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should cash in spot positions opportunistically and wait for opportunities to short on the futures when prices rise. For arbitrage, temporarily wait and see [66]. 3.3 Iron Ore 3.3.1 Influencing Factors - **Supply**: Neutral. This period's Reuters shipping data shows a week - on - week increase of 22.2 tons per day to 440 tons per day, with Australia's shipping increasing by 19.5 tons per day, Brazil's by 6.2 tons per day, and non - mainstream mines' shipping decreasing by 3.4 tons per day to 85.5 tons per day. The total arrival volume in China has decreased by 21.2 tons per day week - on - week, with Australia's arrival increasing by 7.6 tons per day, Brazil's decreasing by 8.9 tons per day, and non - mainstream arrivals decreasing by 19.9 tons per day [112]. - **Demand**: Neutral. This period's steel mill hot metal production has slightly increased to 228.58 tons (+0.6). The steel mill profitability rate remains stable at 39.39%. According to the maintenance plan, hot metal production will continue to increase significantly in February. The daily average port ore removal volume has increased significantly by 9.88 tons to 357.58 tons, but the port inventory has increased by 156.42 tons, remaining higher than the same period last year and continuously reaching new highs for the year. Affected by the steel mills' low - inventory operation strategy, the in - plant inventory is still at a relatively low level in recent years [112]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. The daily average ore removal volume of 47 ports has increased significantly by 9.88 tons to 357.58 tons, at a relatively high seasonal level. However, due to the high arrival volume, the port inventory has increased again by 156.42 tons, remaining higher than the same period last year and reaching a new high for the year [112]. - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mill profits are at a low level [112]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. The short - term valuation is moderate. As the holiday approaches, steel mill stockpiling is basically over, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range before the holiday. After the holiday, attention should be paid to whether Australian weather will affect the supply rhythm [112]. 3.3.2 Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Viewpoint**: Neutral. In the long - term, the upward pressure on iron ore is obvious [112]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should short at resistance levels in the long - term. For arbitrage, temporarily wait and see [112].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 产量下降。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为14.98万吨，比29日-0.79%。行业开工率为71.28%，比1月29日-0.68个百分点；产能利用率为75.09%，比1 月29日-0.6个百分点。本周2条产线放水，产量下降。下周1条产线存在冷修预期。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 随着时间的推移，需求端受长假因素影响，下游逐步进入收尾阶段，且对节后需求观望心态浓厚，节前囤货积极性不高，对原片产销支撑偏弱。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 库存小幅累库，企业总库存5306.4万重箱，环比+50万重箱，环比+0.95%，同比-11.77%。折库存天数23.1天，较上期+0.3天。长假累库在即。 | | 基差/价差 | 中性 | （1）本周基差震荡走低；（2）01-05价差震荡。 | | 估值 | 中性 | 估值一般。 | | 宏观及政策 | 偏多 | 岁末年初宏观和产业政策利好为主。 | | 投资观点 | 中性 | 近期供需双弱，基本面无异动 | | 交易策略 | | 单边：观 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 集运指数：目前交投冷清，低估值下驱动有限 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 当前欧线现货运价受春节前货量真空期影响整体呈回落态势，各联盟报价分化调整。GEMINI 联盟（马士基 + 赫伯罗特），WK7 马士基开舱价降至 1995 | | | 美元 | / FEU，赫伯罗特维持 2300-2500 美元 / FEU；OA 联盟（COSCO、CMA CGM、EMC、OOCL）华北口岸中远海运已调至 2200-2300 美元 / FEU，华东 | | 现货运价 | 中性 | 口岸跟进后整体区间趋同；PA 联盟（ONE、HMM、阳明海运）受 ONE 表价传导，均值趋近 2000 美元 / FEU，部分集量特价低至 1800 美元 / FEU；MSC | | | | 独立运营并随市场节奏小幅下调，报价逐步下探。各联盟降价揽货以抢占货量，供需弱现实压制运价。 | | | | 目前已有3家头部航司提涨3月至3000美金 / FEU.。 | | | | 【1】据美国新闻网站 A ...

【股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)】 热点板块波动加剧，股指震荡运行 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2026-02-09 郑雨婷 从业资格证号：F3074875 投资咨询证号：Z0017779 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 股指观点概述 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 经济和 | | 业绩预告披露期，板块业绩呈现分化格局。截至1月31日，共有3057家上市公司披露业绩预告。预喜的上市公司共有1638家，占 | | 企业盈 | 中性 | 比53.6%；预盈的上市公司共有1518家。分行业看，有色金属、非银金融等行业紧抓周期性机会业绩优异，硬件设备、半导体、 | | 利 | | 汽车与零配件等新动能产业表现亮眼，以钢铁为代表的传统产业利润结构持续优化。 | | | | 宽基ETF的卖出节奏近日呈现放缓趋势。此前自1月15日起，机构曾集中减持宽基指数ETF，截至1月27日累计规模超过7000亿元， | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:地缘局势扑朔迷离，国际油价宽幅波动 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给（中长期） | 中性 | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2026年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,765万桶/日，较2025年上升139万桶/ | | | | 日。(2)OPEC:2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2856.4万桶/日，较2025年11月份上升10.5万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1426.7万桶/日， | | | | 较2025年11月份下降34.3万桶/日。（3）IEA：2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2882万桶/日，较2025年11月份下降34万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国 | | | | 家原油产量为1447万桶/日，较2025年11月份上升32万桶/ ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 宏观情绪回落，盘面价格回调 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-09 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 PVC:宏观情绪回落，盘面价格回调 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）本周国内PVC现货市场窄幅调整，尚未有产能退出，供大于求格局短期难改，供给压力偏大。（2）本周PVC生产企业产能利用率在78.93%环比增加 | | | | 0.19%，同比减少2.98%；其中电石法在80.58%环比增加0.58%，同比减少1.67%，乙烯法在75.02%环比减少0.73%，同比减少0.97%。（3）本周PVC生产 | | | | 企业检修损失量在3.87万吨，较上期下降0.285万吨。本周常规检修略有减少，检修损失量环比上周下降6.86 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 --- 2020 =----- 2021 =----- 2022 =----- 2023 =----- 2024 =-- ----- 2021 =---- 2022 =----- 2023 =----- 2024 - 2026 - 2025 2026 2025 1 20 18 15 120 90 60 30 04/04 05/05 06/05 07/06 08/06 09/06 10/07 11/07 12/08 01/01 02/01 03/04 04/04 05/05 06/05 07/06 08/06 09/06 10/07 11/07 12/08 02/01 03/04 01/01 全国主要油厂开机率(%) 全国主要油厂大豆压榨量(万吨) == ------ 2020 ----- 2021 ------ 2022 ------ 2023 ----- 2024 · 2026 2025 2026 2025 2.90 1 00 200 80 开机和压榨情况 60 150 100 40 50 20 01/01 02/01 03/04 04/04 05/05 06/ ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钉毅 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind 投资咨询号: Z0021177 从业资格号: F03101843 2026/2/9 | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 業 | 现值 | 1267 | 1122 | 1801 | 1101 | 2530 | 1403 | | | 前值 | 1317 | 1176 | 1867 | 1294 | 2605 | 1418 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -3.81% | -4.55% | -3.54% | -14.91% | -2.88% | -1.06% | | 발 JE | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | | | 数 | | | | | | | | | ...

性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标 财务状况或需要,投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,推 此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以 方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 7 国贸期货 险,入市需谨慎。 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 2026/2/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | 指标 | 2026/2/5 | 2026/2/6 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 5100 | 5085 | -15 | | | | | | | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 3649 | 3630 | -19 | 短纤:短纤主力期货跌16到6578。现货市场:涤 | | PTA收盘价 | 5144 | 5166 | 22 | 纶短纤生产工厂价格窄幅波动,贸易 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: The commodity market has declined significantly. PX maintains its fundamental resilience during the high - level correction. Due to the Iranian geopolitical risk, there is still a risk in crude oil prices. The downstream PTA industry remains strong. China's PTA production in January is expected to reach a new high, with no production cut plan during the Spring Festival. With no new PTA production capacity throughout the year, existing facilities will operate at full capacity to meet the growing polyester demand, providing a solid demand base for PX. The PX supply is still tight, with limited global effective capacity release. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the reduction in domestic demand and production cuts by polyester factories have a limited negative impact on PTA [3] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): After the long - term slump of overseas ethylene glycol, the reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu is currently operating at about 80% capacity. Affected by profits, the plant plans to switch a 900,000 - ton EG production line to produce polyethylene in mid - February. The duration of the conversion is undetermined. Driven by this news, speculative market demand has increased significantly. The supply contraction has opened up room for price increases in ethylene glycol [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - **INE Crude Oil**: The price increased from 463.5 yuan/barrel on February 5, 2026, to 465.4 yuan/barrel on February 6, 2026, with an increase of 1.90 yuan/barrel [3] - **PTA - SC**: The value increased from 1775.7 yuan/ton to 1783.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.19 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA/SC Ratio**: It rose from 1.5272 to 1.5274, an increase of 0.0003 [3] - **CFR China PX**: The price increased from 892 to 898, an increase of 6 [3] - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: Remained unchanged at 294 [3] - **PTA Main Contract Futures Price**: Rose from 5144 yuan/ton to 5166 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.0 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA Spot Price**: Decreased from 5100 yuan/ton to 5085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.0 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA Spot Processing Fee**: Decreased from 415.0 yuan/ton to 412.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.9 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA Futures Processing Fee**: Decreased from 459.0 yuan/ton to 448.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.9 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA Main Contract Basis**: Increased from (77) to (72), an increase of 5.0 [3] - **PTA Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: Remained unchanged at 103,568 [3] - **MEG Main Contract Futures Price**: Decreased from 3745 yuan/ton to 3743 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton [3] - **MEG - Naphtha**: Decreased from (184.58) to (195.44), a decrease of 10.9 [3] - **MEG Domestic Market Price**: Decreased from 3649 yuan/ton to 3630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.0 yuan/ton [3] - **MEG Main Contract Basis**: Increased from - 103 to - 102, an increase of 1.0 [3] - **PX Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 85.92% [3] - **PTA Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 76.73% [3] - **MEG Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 61.67% [3] - **Polyester Load**: Decreased from 78.66% to 78.14%, a decrease of 0.52% [3] - **POY150D/48F Price**: Increased from 7000 to 7005, an increase of 5.0 [3] - **POY Cash Flow**: Increased from 167 to 191, an increase of 24.0 [3] - **FDY150D/96F Price**: Remained unchanged at 7240 [3] - **FDY Cash Flow**: Increased from (93) to (74), an increase of 19.0 [3] - **DTY150D/48F Price**: Remained unchanged at 8140 [3] - **DTY Cash Flow**: Increased from 107 to 126, an increase of 19.0 [3] - **Filament Sales Volume Ratio**: Decreased from 22% to 12%, a decrease of 10% [3] - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber Price**: Increased from 6525 to 6535, an increase of 10 [3] - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash Flow**: Increased from 42 to 71, an increase of 29.0 [3] - **Staple Fiber Sales Volume Ratio**: Increased from 52% to 56%, an increase of 4% [3] - **Semi - Bright Chip Price**: Decreased from 5865 to 5860, a decrease of 5.0 [3] - **Chip Cash Flow**: Increased from (68) to (54), an increase of 14.0 [3] - **Chip Sales Volume Ratio**: Increased from 35% to 64%, an increase of 29% [3] 3.2 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 3.6 million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to shut down for maintenance as planned on the 15th - A 1.25 million - ton PTA plant in South China is expected to shut down on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in mid - March [3]