2025 年 5 月 24 日 行业研究 磷肥出口放开，持续看好磷化工产业链 ——基础化工行业周报（20250510-20250516） 要点 25 年我国磷铵的出口量同比下降明显，随出口窗口期的到来，出口量有望提 升。根据百川盈孚数据，24 年我国磷酸一铵、磷酸二铵的出口量分别为 200.47、456.32 万吨，同比分别下降 1.6%、9.4%。25 年以来，我国磷酸 一铵、磷酸二铵的出口量同比下降明显，1-4 月我国磷酸一铵、磷酸二铵的 出口量分别为 7.53、7.98 万吨，同比分别下降 75.7%、85.3%，随着出口窗 口期的到来，在出口需求的拉动下，我国磷肥的出口量有望逐步回升，对应 的磷肥价格有望获得支撑或提振。 磷矿石价格维持高位，磷化工行业龙头企业多布局有高品位磷矿资源。磷矿 石方面，21 年以来，由于磷矿石供需紧张，磷矿石价格大幅上涨，并在近年 维持在高位价格水平，根据百川盈孚数据，截至 25 年 5 月 23 日，国内磷矿 石价格为 1020 元/吨。我国磷矿储量中以中低品位的磷矿居多，全国磷矿石 P2O5的平均品位仅为 17%左右，25%及以上中高品位磷矿石的储量占比仅在 20%左右 ...

2025 年 5 月 24 日 中证 500 股票池中，本周表现较好的因子有毛利率 TTM(1.65%)、单季度 ROA(1.40%)、单季度总资产毛利率(1.26%)，表现较差的因子有单季度净利润同 比增长率(-0.42%)、5 日反转(-0.49%)、早盘后收益因子(-0.64%)。 流动性 1500 股票池中，本周表现较好的因子有 5 日平均换手率(0.45%)、5 分 钟收益率偏度(0.36%)、下行波动率占比(0.33%)。表现较差的因子有动量弹簧因 子(-1.07%)、5 日反转(-1.11%)、单季度净利润同比增长率(-1.19%)。 因子行业内表现：本周，净资产增长率因子在综合行业表现较好，净利润增长率 因子在钢铁行业表现较好。每股净资产因子在美容护理行业表现较好；每股经营 利润 TTM 因子在煤炭行业表现较好。5 日动量因子在综合行业动量效应明显， 在石油石化、食品饮料行业反转效应明显；1 月动量因子在综合、轻工制造行业 动量效应明显，在汽车、交通运输、家用电器行业反转效应显著。估值类因子中， BP 因子在美容护理行业表现较好；EP 因子在煤炭行业表现较好。对数市值因子 在综合、煤炭行业正收 ...

2025 年 5 月 24 日 行业研究 磷肥出口放开，持续看好磷化工产业链 ——基础化工行业周报（20250510-20250516） 要点 磷肥的出口窗口期已至，磷肥企业的盈利能力有望维持。 23 年 5 月，海关总 署发布《进出口肥料检验规程》，并于 2023 年 12 月 1 日实施。这是中国进 出口商品检验部门首次发布规定出口肥料检验工作程序的技术规范，在提高 出口肥料质量的同时，将有望增加肥料出口数量。法检政策的常规化调控了 磷肥的出口量，国内外磷肥维持着一定的价差。根据百川盈孚，近期协会对 磷肥的出口指导公布，具体情况如下：1、2025 年磷肥出口或将分阶段进 行。第一阶段需要 10 月 15 日前报关，出口窗口期集中在 5-9 月；第二阶段 出口情况待定，根据第一阶段灵活调整。2、法检时间缩减，预计半月左右 时间。5 月中旬执行法检政策。3、2025 年磷肥出口配额总量比去年减少。 当前，磷肥的国内春耕已经结束，国内磷肥需求转入淡季，国内磷肥价格面 临一定的下行压力，我国化肥出口陆续开展，在淡季时拓宽化肥出口途径、 增加出口数量，能够进一步维持磷肥企业的盈利能力。 近年来磷肥的国际市场维持了有 ...

- The PB-ROE-50 portfolio achieved an excess return of 1.15% in the CSI 500 stock pool, 0.29% in the CSI 800 stock pool, and -0.30% in the entire market stock pool[23][24] - The public research stock selection strategy achieved an excess return of 0.54% relative to the CSI 800, while the private research tracking strategy achieved an excess return of 2.61% relative to the CSI 800[25][26] - The block trading portfolio achieved an excess return of -0.61% relative to the CSI All Share Index[29][30] - The directed issuance portfolio achieved an excess return of 0.12% relative to the CSI All Share Index[35][36] - The momentum factor and growth factor achieved positive returns of 0.12% and 0.04% respectively, while the liquidity factor, beta factor, and size factor achieved significant negative returns of -0.56%, -0.52%, and -0.40% respectively[18][20] - In the CSI 500 stock pool, the best-performing factors this week were gross profit margin TTM (1.65%), single-quarter ROA (1.40%), and single-quarter total asset gross profit margin (1.26%)[14][15] - In the liquidity 1500 stock pool, the best-performing factors this week were 5-day average turnover rate (0.45%), 5-minute return skewness (0.36%), and downside volatility ratio (0.33%)[16][17] - In the CSI 500 stock pool, the worst-performing factors this week were single-quarter net profit year-on-year growth rate (-0.42%), 5-day reversal (-0.49%), and post-morning return factor (-0.64%)[14][15] - In the liquidity 1500 stock pool, the worst-performing factors this week were momentum spring factor (-1.07%), 5-day reversal (-1.11%), and single-quarter net profit year-on-year growth rate (-1.19%)[16][17] - In the CSI 300 stock pool, the best-performing factors this week were net profit gap (1.30%), 5-day exponential moving average of trading volume (1.15%), and total asset gross profit margin TTM (1.02%)[12][13] - In the CSI 300 stock pool, the worst-performing factors this week were logarithmic market value factor (-1.02%), momentum spring factor (-1.12%), and post-morning return factor (-1.29%)[12][13] - The net asset growth rate factor performed well in the comprehensive industry, and the net profit growth rate factor performed well in the steel industry[21][22] - The BP factor performed well in the beauty and personal care industry, and the EP factor performed well in the coal industry[21][22]

Investment Rating - The mechanical industry is rated as "Buy" (Maintain) [1] Core Viewpoints - The export of electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers to North America is negatively impacted by tariffs, while overall data for lawn mowers and engineering machinery is bright [1][10] - In April 2025, the retail sales in the U.S. showed a significant decline, indicating the negative impact of tariffs on the economy, with consumer confidence dropping to its lowest level since August 2022 [3][10] - The cumulative export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers from January to April 2025 were 10%, -6%, and 55% respectively, with significant month-on-month declines [4][10] Summary by Relevant Sections Consumer Goods - The main products include electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers, primarily targeting high-end consumers in Europe and the U.S. [3] - The cumulative export amounts to North America for electric tools and lawn mowers from January to April 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 9% and 10% respectively, but the growth rates have significantly declined [4][10] Capital Goods - Industrial - The main products include forklifts, machine tools, and industrial sewing machines, with a notable increase in exports to emerging markets like Africa and Latin America [5][10] - The cumulative export growth for forklifts, machine tools, and industrial sewing machines from January to April 2025 was -1%, +9%, and +28% respectively [8][10] Capital Goods - Engineering Machinery - The cumulative export growth for engineering machinery reached double digits in the first four months of 2025, with excavators, tractors, and mining machinery showing growth rates of 21%, 28%, and 21% respectively [9][10] - The export amounts to Africa showed the fastest growth, reaching 61% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025 [6][10] Investment Recommendations - For consumer goods, companies to watch include QuanFeng Holdings, JuXing Technology, and Greebo [10] - For industrial capital goods, recommended companies include Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, and Neway CNC [10] - For engineering machinery, companies such as YTO Group, XCMG, and SANY Heavy Industry are highlighted as potential investments [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Pictures [2][4] Core Insights - Alibaba Pictures achieved FY25 revenue of 6.702 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 33%, with a gross profit of 2.478 billion RMB, reflecting a 23% growth, and a gross margin of 37.0%, down 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The growth in the ticketing platform, Damai, was robust, with revenue reaching 2.06 billion RMB, a staggering 236% increase year-on-year, while the IP derivatives business generated 1.43 billion RMB, up 73% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on its core businesses of live performances and IP derivatives, with cautious expectations for film investments [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY25 revenue was 6.702 billion RMB, with a gross profit of 2.478 billion RMB and an adjusted EBITA of 809 million RMB, marking a 61% increase year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 364 million RMB, a 28% increase year-on-year [1] Business Segments - Film technology and investment production revenue was 2.71 billion RMB, down 9.6% year-on-year due to underperforming box office results [1] - Damai's ticketing platform maintained its leading position in the market, serving over 3,800 large-scale projects [1] - The IP derivatives business saw significant growth, with Alibaba Fish, the largest IP licensing agency in China, expanding its IP matrix and achieving over 90% growth in retail sales of licensed IP products [1] Profitability and Expenses - The company reported a gross profit of 2.478 billion RMB, with sales and marketing expenses of 790 million RMB, and management expenses of 1.24 billion RMB [1] - Operating profit reached 650 million RMB, a 109% increase year-on-year [1] Future Projections - The net profit forecasts for FY26 and FY27 have been revised upwards to 880 million RMB and 1.111 billion RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for FY28 at 1.34 billion RMB [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Pictures [2][4]. Core Insights - Alibaba Pictures achieved FY25 revenue of 6.702 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 33%, with a gross profit of 2.478 billion RMB, up 23% year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of 37.0%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points [1]. - The growth of the Damai business remains robust, with revenue from IP derivative products exceeding market expectations, particularly driven by the strong performance of Alibaba's IP licensing platform, Aliyu [1][2]. - The company has a cautious outlook on film investments, while the IP business is expected to maintain high growth [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY25 revenue reached 6.702 billion RMB, with a gross profit of 2.478 billion RMB and an adjusted EBITA of 809 million RMB, reflecting a 61% year-on-year growth [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for FY25 was 364 million RMB, a 28% increase year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - Revenue from film technology and investment production and distribution was 2.71 billion RMB, down 9.6% year-on-year, primarily due to underperforming box office results [1]. - Damai's revenue surged to 2.06 billion RMB, a remarkable 236% increase year-on-year, maintaining its leading position in the live ticketing market [1]. - The IP derivative business generated 1.43 billion RMB, a 73% increase year-on-year, with Aliyu expanding its IP matrix significantly [1]. - Revenue from drama production was 500 million RMB, down 16% year-on-year, with over 20 projects in development [1]. Profitability and Expenses - The company reported a gross profit of 2.478 billion RMB, with sales and marketing expenses of 790 million RMB, an 11.2% increase year-on-year [1]. - Operating profit reached 650 million RMB, reflecting a 109% year-on-year increase [1]. Future Projections - The report revises FY26 and FY27 net profit forecasts to 880 million RMB and 1.111 billion RMB, respectively, with a new FY28 forecast of 1.34 billion RMB [2][3].

2025 年 5 月 23 日 行业研究 "增储上产"叠加新能源转型加速，持续看好"三桶油"及油服板块 ——石化化工交运行业日报第 68 期（20250522） 要点 "增储上产"持续推进，"三桶油"油气产量有望稳步上行。2025Q1， "三桶油"油气产量保持增长，中国石油、中国石化、中国海油油气当量产 量分别同比+0.7%、+1.7%、+4.8%。目前俄乌、巴以、美伊等地缘政治事 件仍存不确定性，我国能源安全受到较多外部挑战。"三桶油"响应国家 "增储上产"号召，中国石油、中国石化、中国海油 2025 年上游资本开支 计划分别为 2100、767、1300 亿元，油气当量产量预计分别增长 1.6%、 1.3%、5.9%，在地缘政治不确定性仍存的背景下，"三桶油"油气产量有 望持续上行，在提升企业自身抵御油价波动能力的同时保障国家能源安全， 我们持续看好"三桶油"及下属油服企业。 "三桶油"大力推进新能源产业发展，向综合能源供应商转型。"三桶油" 扎实推进绿色低碳转型，积极布局新兴产业。（1）中国石油始终把天然气 业务作为战略性、成长性和价值性工程大力发展，2024 年天然气产量占比超 过油气总量的 50%； ...

2025 年 5 月 23 日 行业研究 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com "增储上产"叠加新能源转型加速，持续看好"三桶油"及油服板块 ——石化化工交运行业日报第 68 期（20250522） 要点 "增储上产"持续推进，"三桶油"油气产量有望稳步上行。2025Q1， "三桶油"油气产量保持增长，中国石油、中国石化、中国海油油气当量产 量分别同比+0.7%、+1.7%、+4.8%。目前俄乌、巴以、美伊等地缘政治事 件仍存不确定性，我国能源安全受到较多外部挑战。"三桶油"响应国家 "增储上产"号召，中国石油、中国石化、中国海油 2025 年上游资本开支 计划分别为 2100、767、1300 亿元，油气当量产量预计分别增长 1.6%、 1.3%、5.9%，在地缘政治不确定性仍存的背景下，"三桶油"油气产量有 望持续上行，在提升企业自身抵御油价波动能力的同时保障国家能源安全， 我们持续看好"三桶油"及下属油服企业。 "三桶油"大力推进新能源产业发展，向综合能源供应商转型。"三桶油" 扎实推进绿色低碳转型，积极布局新兴产业。（1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600.SH) [5] Core Viewpoints - The new management team emphasizes a consumer-centric approach and aims for stable growth in both volume and profit. The strategy includes focusing on strategic areas such as "beer + biology + health," deepening domestic and international markets, and enhancing brand communication [1][14] - The beer industry is characterized by stable overall volume and structural upgrades, with significant room for growth in per capita consumption in China. The company aims to meet evolving consumer demands through its "Five New" strategy, which focuses on new products, channels, scenes, demographics, and needs [2][15] - The company is implementing multiple core initiatives to drive sales growth, including a product combination strategy and expansion into new markets, particularly in southern China and overseas [3][42] Summary by Sections New Management Strategy - The new management's strategy continues the previous core strategy but emphasizes a stronger consumer focus and sales growth orientation. Key measures include strategic positioning in "beer + biology + health," deepening market presence, and enhancing brand experience [1][14] Focus on Consumer Needs - The beer industry is experiencing a trend of stable total volume and diversified consumer demands. The company is addressing these needs through its "Five New" strategy, targeting new products, channels, scenes, demographics, and needs [2][15][24] Focus on Sales Growth - The company is committed to a product combination strategy, focusing on core products like classic, pure draft, and white beer. It aims to expand its presence in the southern market and overseas, particularly in regions like South Korea and West Africa [3][42][43] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 48.46 billion, 51.71 billion, and 54.42 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.55, 3.79, and 3.99 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a PE of 20x, 19x, and 18x for 2025-2027 [3][44]