2025 年 5 月 23 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 | | A 股市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3380.19 | -0.22 | | 沪深 300 | 3913.87 | -0.06 | | 深证成指 | 10219.62 | -0.72 | | 中小板指 | 6403.36 | -0.56 | | 创业板指 | 2045.57 | -0.96 | 行业研究 【高端制造】工程机械上市公司业绩稳健增长，行业维持复苏趋势——工程机械行业 2025 年 4 月月报(买入) 近期工程机械行业销量维持增长趋势，行业短期具备良好催化剂；两会政策对工程机 械行业支持力度较大，行业中期需求持续复苏有保障；同时随着工程机械行业国际化、 电动化进程不断推进，工程机械龙头企业有望量利齐升。我们看好行业后续长期表现， 推荐三一重工、中联重科（A/H）、徐工机械、柳工、山推股份等主机厂商，以及恒 立液压等零部件厂商。 【食饮】零食量贩龙头企业， 高效周转重塑零售业态——湖南鸣鸣很忙招股说明书 解读(买入) 鸣鸣很忙在上游端通过减少供应链中间环节和规模 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600.SH) [5][44]. Core Viewpoints - The new management team emphasizes a consumer-centric approach and aims for balanced growth in volume and profit. The strategy includes focusing on strategic areas such as "beer + biology + health," deepening domestic and international markets, and enhancing brand communication [1][14]. - The beer industry is characterized by stable overall volume and structural upgrades, with significant room for growth in per capita consumption in China. The company aims to meet evolving consumer demands through its "Five New" strategy, which focuses on new products, channels, scenes, groups, and needs [2][15]. Summary by Sections New Management Strategy - The new management strategy continues the core strategy of the previous leadership, with a focus on consumer-centricity and sales growth. Key measures include strategic positioning in "beer + biology + health," deepening market presence, and enhancing brand experience [1][14]. Focus on Consumer Needs - The beer industry shows a trend of stable total volume and diversified consumer demands. The average beer consumption in China is projected to be 30.5 liters in 2024, indicating potential for growth. The company addresses new consumer demands through innovative products and marketing strategies [2][15]. Focus on Sales Growth - The company implements a multi-faceted approach to drive sales growth, including a product strategy that emphasizes core products and the development of fresh and premium offerings. The southern market is identified as a growth highlight, with plans for new consumption scenarios and product launches [3][42][43]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 48.46 billion, 51.71 billion, and 54.42 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.55, 3.79, and 3.99 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 20x, 19x, and 18x for the same years [3][44].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The snack wholesale industry is rapidly expanding, with a focus on penetrating lower-tier markets. The retail market for food and beverages is projected to grow from CNY 5.5 trillion in 2019 to CNY 7.1 trillion in 2024, with a CAGR of 5.2% [13][18] - The company, Mingming Hen Mang, is a leading player in the snack wholesale sector, utilizing an efficient model to reshape retail formats. It has achieved significant growth through a franchise model and has expanded its store count to 14,394 by the end of 2024 [1][28] - The company has a strong presence in lower-tier markets, with a store network covering 1,224 counties and a county coverage rate of 66% [2][41] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The snack wholesale industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the segment of leisure food and beverages maintaining over 50% of GMV share. The retail scale for leisure food and beverages is expected to reach CNY 4.9 trillion by 2029, with a CAGR of 5.8% from 2024 to 2029 [13][18] Company Profile - Mingming Hen Mang operates two brands, "Snacks Are Busy" and "Zhao Yiming," and has opened over 1,000 stores in 2022 and 2023. The company aims to exceed 10,000 stores by 2024, with an average of over 20 new stores opening daily [1][28] - The company has a total GMV of CNY 55.5 billion and continues to expand its franchise model, with 7,241 franchisees by the end of 2024 [1][41] Business Model - The company reduces supply chain intermediaries and offers high-quality products at competitive prices. It has a gross margin of approximately 20% based on its 2024 GMV and revenue [2][52] - Mingming Hen Mang maintains a diverse SKU selection, with 3,380 SKUs in stock, and offers products at an average price 25% lower than similar products in offline supermarkets [3][55] Financial Performance - The company has shown rapid revenue growth, achieving CNY 393 billion in revenue in 2024, with a CAGR of 203% from 2022 to 2024. Adjusted net profits also increased significantly during the same period [38][39] - The gross margin has remained stable, with slight increases from 7.5% in 2022 to 7.6% in 2024, while the adjusted net profit margin has also seen a slight rise [39][40] Market Position - Mingming Hen Mang holds a market share of 1.5% in the leisure food and beverage retail sector, ranking as the leading retailer in this category [24][32] - The competitive landscape in the food and beverage retail sector is relatively fragmented, with a CR5 of 6.0% in the leisure food and beverage segment [24][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the engineering machinery industry [1] Core Insights - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing steady revenue growth, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth in 2024 and Q1 2025 [3][4] - The industry is supported by favorable government policies and a recovering demand for infrastructure, ensuring medium-term demand stability [7] - The trend towards electrification in engineering machinery is accelerating, with significant growth in electric loader sales [9] Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, the overall revenue of listed companies in the engineering machinery industry reached CNY 355.12 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [3] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was CNY 96.13 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024 was CNY 29.77 billion, up 16.9% year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a net profit of CNY 9.72 billion, a 30.2% increase [4] Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for the industry in 2024 was 25.5%, a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The net profit margin improved to 8.7% in 2024, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous year [5] Sales Trends - From January to April 2025, excavator sales (including exports) reached 83,514 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.4% [6] - The domestic sales of excavators during this period were 49,109 units, marking a 31.9% increase [6] Export Performance - In the same period, excavator exports totaled 34,405 units, reflecting a 9.0% year-on-year growth [8] - The report highlights opportunities for growth in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East markets [8] Electrification and Green Transition - Electric loader sales surged by 254.8% in Q1 2025, with an electrification rate of 19.3%, up 14.3 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The government is promoting a green transition, which is expected to accelerate the electrification process in the engineering machinery sector [9] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends key players such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG, LiuGong, and Shantui, as well as component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the engineering machinery industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing steady revenue growth, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth in 2024 and Q1 2025 [3][4] - The industry is benefiting from cost reduction, efficiency improvements, and product structure optimization, leading to a recovery in profitability [5] - The demand for engineering machinery is expected to continue its recovery due to strong government support and infrastructure investment [7] - The trend towards electrification in the engineering machinery sector is accelerating, with significant growth in electric loader sales [9] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, the overall revenue of listed companies in the engineering machinery industry reached 355.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [3] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 96.13 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024 was 29.77 billion yuan, up 16.9% year-on-year, with Q1 2025 showing a 30.2% increase to 9.72 billion yuan [4] Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for the industry in 2024 was 25.5%, a slight increase from the previous year, while the net margin improved to 8.7% [5] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin slightly decreased to 25.1%, but the net margin rose to 10.3% [5] Sales Trends - From January to April 2025, excavator sales reached 83,514 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, with domestic sales growing by 31.9% [6] - The report highlights a significant increase in electric loader sales, with a year-on-year growth of 254.8% in Q1 2025 [9] Government Support and Market Outlook - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds to support infrastructure projects, which is expected to boost demand for engineering machinery [7] - The report anticipates continued growth in the international market for engineering machinery, particularly in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East [8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies such as Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG, LiuGong, and Shantui, as well as component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and transportation sectors [4]. Core Insights - The IEA and EIA have raised their oil demand forecasts, with the IEA projecting an increase of 100,000 barrels per day in emerging markets for 2026, while OECD countries are expected to see a decline in demand [1][2]. - OPEC+ production has decreased, with a total output of 40.916 million barrels per day in April, down by 106,000 barrels per day from the previous month [2]. - Geopolitical uncertainties continue to pose challenges to energy security, prompting major Chinese oil companies to increase capital expenditures for upstream operations [3]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The IEA has adjusted its 2025 global oil demand forecast upward by 10,000 barrels per day to 74 million barrels per day, driven primarily by emerging economies [1]. - The EIA's short-term energy outlook predicts a 1.38 million barrels per day increase in global oil demand for 2025, up by 30,000 barrels per day from last month [1]. - OPEC has maintained its 2025 oil demand forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day, while non-OPEC+ countries' production growth has been revised down by 100,000 barrels per day [2]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Ongoing geopolitical events, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, highlight the importance of energy security [3]. - China's major oil companies plan significant capital expenditures for 2025, with China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC planning to spend 210 billion, 76.7 billion, and 130 billion yuan respectively [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC [3]. - It also highlights opportunities in domestic material companies benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution, recommending companies like Jingrui Electric Materials and Tongcheng New Materials [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and transportation sectors [4] Core Views - The IEA and EIA have raised their oil demand forecasts, with emerging markets expected to drive significant growth in oil demand in 2025, increasing by 860,000 barrels per day [1] - Despite economic slowdowns, emerging economies are projected to be the main contributors to oil demand growth, while OECD countries are expected to see a decline in demand [1] - OPEC+ production has decreased, and the execution of their production increase plans is under scrutiny, with potential impacts from geopolitical uncertainties [2][3] - The report highlights the importance of energy security amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, with major Chinese oil companies planning significant capital expenditures for upstream operations [3] Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The IEA's May report adjusted the global oil demand forecast for 2025 upwards by 100,000 barrels per day to 74 million barrels per day, emphasizing the role of emerging markets [1] - The EIA also revised its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.38 million barrels per day, an increase of 30,000 barrels per day from the previous month [1] - OPEC's April production fell to 40.916 million barrels per day, a decrease of 106,000 barrels per day from the previous month, influenced by declines in Iran, Venezuela, and Kazakhstan [2] Geopolitical and Energy Security - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, pose challenges to energy security, prompting major Chinese oil companies to respond with increased capital expenditures [3] - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for major Chinese oil companies and their associated service firms [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing companies in the oil sector, including China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [3] - It also highlights opportunities in domestic material companies benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution, as well as in the pesticide and fertilizer sectors [3]

2025 年 5 月 22 日 行业研究 事件： 2025 年 4 月电力设备出口数据发布。 逆变器：同环比高增，景气度上行。 总量层面：2025 年 4 月逆变器出口金额 8.1 亿美元，同比+17%，环比+28%。 结构层面：非洲同比增速较快，欧洲环比大幅改善。分大洲来看，我国逆变器 4 月出口至不同地区的规模：1）欧洲为 3.7 亿美元，同比+24%，环比+48%；2） 亚洲为 2.6 亿美元，同比+17%，环比+15%；3）非洲为 0.7 亿美元，同比+110%， 环比+38%。 变压器：4 月出口维持高增，1-4 月出口亚洲、欧洲、北美和南美同比增速较快。 2025 年 4 月电力设备、组件、电池出口数据分析 2025 年 1-4 月，总出口金额 170.8 亿元，同比+38%；4 月出口 45.8 亿元，同 比+34%，环比+9%。1-4 月大中小三种类型变压器出口金额分别为 65.5、65.7、 39.6 亿元，同比增速分别为+52%、+50%、+9%。 ——碳中和领域动态追踪（一百五十八） 2025 年 1-4 月，大中型变压器（电力电网级）出口金额合计 131.2 亿元，同比 +51%；4 ...

Macro Analysis - In April 2025, fiscal revenue and expenditure improved, with notable highlights including accelerated fiscal spending, particularly in infrastructure-related areas [2] - Fiscal revenue showed marginal improvement compared to Q1, with tax revenue recovering while non-tax revenue growth slowed [2] - The land market showed signs of improvement, supported by the issuance of new special bonds, leading to significant enhancements in government fund income and expenditure [2] Coal Industry - In 2024, coal companies are expected to see a decline in operating revenue and a decrease in operating cash flow, with significant net outflows in investment cash flow [3] - Financing cash flow continues to show net outflows, with high leverage levels and increasing debt, yet overall debt repayment capacity remains strong [3] - Profitability for coal companies in 2025 is anticipated to be constrained, but there is still support for overall profitability, with relatively ample operating cash flow [3] Bond Market - In April 2025, the total bond custody volume saw a slight increase month-on-month, with all types of bonds showing net increases [4] - Policy banks significantly reduced their bond custody volume, while other major institutions in the bond market increased their holdings [4] - The balance of repurchase bonds decreased seasonally, leading to a decline in the bond market leverage ratio [4] Restaurant Industry - The restaurant industry is expected to recover, with a gradual increase in market activity observed in Q1 2025 compared to the entire year of 2024 [5] - The number of restaurant outlets has increased, particularly in first-tier cities, driven by policy stimuli that are likely to enhance demand [5] - There is a notable trend towards affordable dining options, with high opening rates for essential and low-cost categories, indicating a continued focus on supply chain-related stocks [5] Power AI Industry - Vertiv plans to launch an 800 VDC power product series in the second half of 2026, supporting NVIDIA's computing platform [6] - This announcement aligns with market trends regarding AI data center power solutions, further validating the HVDC industry trajectory [6] - Recommended stocks to watch include Zhongheng Electric, Hewei Electric, Shenghong Co., Sifang Co., Magmi Tech, Kehua Data, and Keda [6] Transportation Industry - Recent easing of trade tensions between the US and China is expected to sustain the recovery in container shipping demand [9] - The average freight rates for US West and East Coast routes have increased significantly, with rates reaching 3091 and 4069 USD/FEU, respectively, reflecting a rise of 31.7% and 22.0% [9] Real Estate Company - Huafa Co. maintains stable dividend payouts while being cautious in investment and construction, with a notable decline in settlement resources [10] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 820 million, 960 million, and 1.12 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 15, and 12 times [10] - As a local leading state-owned enterprise, Huafa Co. has a solid financial position and focuses on quality land reserves in core cities, maintaining an "increase" rating [10]

Group 1: Currency Performance - The Australian dollar (AUD) has shown weakness since the beginning of the year, trading between 0.62 and 0.64 against the USD in Q1 2025[1] - Since April 9, 2025, the AUD has rebounded significantly from a low of 0.5915, rising for seven consecutive trading days and stabilizing above the 50-day moving average[1] - On May 7, 2025, the AUD reached a high of 0.6515 but failed to break through the 250-day moving average, currently trading around 0.642[1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has reduced interest rates by 0.25% to 3.85% following a series of rate cuts that began in February 2025[2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Q1 2025 showed an annual increase of 2.4%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.3%[2] Group 3: Trade Relations and Future Outlook - Recent positive developments in global trade include a significant reduction in tariffs between the US and China, with US tariffs on Chinese goods dropping from 145% to 30% and Chinese tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%[2] - If US-China trade relations continue to improve, it is expected that commodity currencies, including the AUD, will benefit significantly[2] - The forecast for the AUD/USD exchange rate in the second half of 2025 is neutral to positive, with support at 0.61 and resistance around 0.69, contingent on breaking the 250-day moving average at approximately 0.649[2]