2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 海外自主品牌影响力持续提升，一季度业绩表现超预期 ——匠心家居（301061.SZ）2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2025 年一季报，1Q2025 实现营收 7.7 亿元，同比+38.1%，实 现归母净利润 1.9 亿元，同比+60.4%。1Q2025 公司实现经营性净现金流 1.2 亿 元，同比+59.8%。 点评：营收利润延续高增，一季度业绩表现超预期：1Q2025 公司营收利润延续 高速增长，主要原因系：1、公司聚焦高品质品牌定位，持续加大创新投入，积 极推出一系列高附加值产品，在中高端细分市场影响力显著提升；2、公司直销 零售商客户数量持续增加、合作规模不断扩张；3、公司越南基地产能利用率持 续提升，订单交付能力不断增强。 分地区看，1Q2025 公司 89.5%的产品销往美国，78.0 %的产品出自越南工厂。 1Q2025，公司前 10 大客户均为美国客户，70%为零售商，前十大客户中有 8 家客户增加了采购金额，同比增幅在 10.52%~325.22%。此外，1Q2025 公司一 共开拓了 22 位新客户，全部为零售商，其中 2 位属于"全 ...

2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 北美业务止跌企稳，欧洲业务延续增长，一季度业绩表现超预期 ——梦百合（603313.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：6.97 元 作者 分析师：姜浩 执业证书编号：S0930522010001 021-52523680 jianghao@ebscn.com 联系人：吴子倩 021-52523872 wuziqian@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.71 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿元)： | 39.77 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 5.22/9.16 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 149.17% | 股价相对走势 -36% -22% -8% 7% 21% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 梦百合 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | 16.01 | 6.77 | -24.63 | | 绝对 | 12.60 | 6.41 | -2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 23.578 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 50 yuan per 10 shares, with a total cash dividend of 3.172 billion yuan for 2024, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of 57.49% [1]. - The company's white liquor business revenue reached 22.865 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 16.43%, driven by an increase in both sales volume and average price [2]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 79.90%, with a slight increase compared to the previous year, indicating effective cost management [3]. - The company forecasts steady revenue growth for 2025, with net profit estimates adjusted to 6.144 billion yuan, reflecting a 11.36% growth rate [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 4.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.85%, while net profit was 771 million yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous year [1]. - For Q1 2025, total revenue reached 9.146 billion yuan, growing by 10.38% year-on-year, and net profit was 2.330 billion yuan, up 12.78% [1]. Business Segments - The company's flagship product series, "Nianfen Yuanjiang," saw revenue growth of 17.31% in 2024, with notable increases in both sales volume and average price [2]. - The company reported a total of 5,089 distributors by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 448 distributors year-on-year, indicating a solid market presence [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for the "Nianfen Yuanjiang" series was 86.12% in 2024, reflecting strong pricing power and cost control [3]. - The report highlights a decrease in sales expense ratio to 26.22% in 2024, contributing to improved profitability [3]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 6.144 billion yuan and 6.864 billion yuan, respectively, while introducing a new forecast for 2027 at 7.586 billion yuan [4]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 14 for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [4].

2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 业绩承压，期待后续盈利改善 ——三全食品（002216.SZ）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：三全食品发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，公司 2024 年实现总营收 66.32 亿元、同比减少 6%，归母净利润 5.42 亿元、同比减少 27.64%，扣非归 母净利润4.15亿元、同比减少35.8%。25Q1总营收22.18亿元、同比减少1.58%， 归母净利润 2.09 亿元、同比减少 9.22%，扣非归母净利润 1.64 亿元、同比减少 16.87%。公司拟每 10 股派发现金红利 3 元（含税）、分红率 48.64%。 24 年传统米面制品收入承压、25Q1 有所改善，大 B 端表现相对领先。1）分市 场 ， 24 年零售及创新 / 餐饮市场营收分别为 51.19/14.45 亿元，同比 -8.10%/+1.06%，C 端零售市场表现较为疲软，B 端餐饮市场中小 B 端客户有所 承压、主要系老品竞争较为激烈，大 B 客户继续拓展、收入增速较为领先。分 产品看，24 年速冻米面制品/速冻调制食品营收分别为 55.99/8.73 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's 2024 revenue reached 4.443 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.47%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 326 million yuan, up 14.73% year-on-year [1] - The sales of Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) products are expected to accelerate, with projected sales of approximately 300 million yuan in 2024 [2][3] - The company has established a global sales network and is expected to see improvements in its overseas subsidiaries, indicating potential for international expansion [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.443 billion yuan, with a net profit of 326 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 295 million yuan [1] - The Q4 revenue was 1.261 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 23.22%, while Q1 2025 revenue was 1.042 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.76% [1][2] Business Segments - Blood Glucose Monitoring (BGM) revenue for 2024 was 3.321 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.58% [2] - The company anticipates steady growth in its BGM business for 2025, supported by a robust product system and distribution network [2] CGM Product Development - The company is a leading player in the domestic CGM market, with its products launched in 2023 and expected to see significant sales growth [2] - The second-generation CGM products are anticipated to be launched soon, further enhancing the product lineup [2] International Expansion - The company has received CE certification for its CGM products and is in the process of entering markets in Western and Northern Europe [3] - An FDA application for the CGM products has been submitted, with expectations for approval in 2025 [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is set at 431 million yuan, with a downward adjustment for 2026 to 523 million yuan [3] - The company is recognized as the leading brand in domestic blood glucose monitoring, with promising prospects for international business [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6] Core Views - The company is undergoing a transformation process, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, showing a year-on-year revenue drop of 49.00% and a net profit decline of 71.24% [1] - The company is actively transforming across various business lines, including launching new products in the jewelry sector and expanding its presence in the cultural dining and health sectors [3] - The report has adjusted profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards by 26% and 24% respectively, while introducing a new profit forecast for 2027 [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 8.782 billion yuan, down 49.00% year-on-year, and a net profit of 52 million yuan, down 71.24% year-on-year [1] - For the year 2024, the company reported a revenue of 46.924 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.30% year-on-year, and a net profit of 125 million yuan, down 93.81% year-on-year [1] - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 16.10%, an increase of 2.36 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio increased by 6.71 percentage points [2] Business Strategy and Outlook - The company is focusing on a multi-business transformation strategy, including launching products targeting younger consumers and optimizing its channel structure [3] - The real estate segment is actively exiting non-core assets, with over 10 billion yuan in cash returns achieved in 2024 [3] - The report highlights the company's strong positioning in core urban areas and its consumer brand strength as key advantages in its transformation efforts [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in North America has stabilized, while European operations continue to grow, with Q1 results exceeding expectations [1][5] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -151 million yuan [5][15] - The company is expected to see profit recovery, with projections for 2025-2027 indicating a gradual increase in revenue and net profit [15] Revenue Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, and a net profit of 58.72 million yuan, up 196.2% [5][15] - Domestic and overseas sales for 2024 were 1.48 billion yuan and 6.75 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 3.5% and 6.7% [6] - The company's self-owned brand achieved revenue of 1.13 billion yuan domestically, reflecting a 3.6% increase [6] Profitability Analysis - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 36.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [10] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 39.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [12] - The gross margin for the company's self-owned brand in 2024 was 46.0%, down 0.7 percentage points [10] Cost Structure - The company's expense ratio for 2024 was 35.0%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [13] - In Q1 2025, the expense ratio decreased to 34.8%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [13] Future Outlook - The report highlights the potential for profit elasticity due to the return of manufacturing to the U.S. and domestic demand stimulation [14] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained, with 2027 revenue projected at 12.73 billion yuan [15] - The company is expected to benefit from reduced reliance on major clients, with the top five clients accounting for 16.2% of revenue in 2024, down 5.7 percentage points year-on-year [14]

2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 2024 年营收小幅下降，利润端承压明显 ——国茂股份（603915.SH）2024 年年报点评 要点 事件： 4 月 29 日国茂股份发布 2024 年年报。2024 年公司实现营收 25.89 亿元， 同比-2.7%；实现归母净利润 2.94 亿元，同比-25.8%；实现扣非归母净利润 2.06 亿元，同比-42.2%。2024 年销售毛利率为 21.1%，同比-4.9pct。单季度来看， 2024Q4 公司实现营收 6.62 亿元，同比+2.0%，环比+0.5%；实现归母净利润 0.85 亿元，同比-34.2%，环比+36.4%；实现扣非归母净利润 0.30 亿元，同比 -73.9%，环比-44.8%。 点评：2024 年营收小幅下降，利润端承压明显。 2024 年，全球制造业复苏进程缓慢，我国减速器行业整体处于筑底调整阶段。 24 年公司营业收入同比小幅下降，公司全年减速机总发货量（不含精密类减速 器）同比实现约 5%的增长，产品市场占有率进一步提升，但由于行业竞争加剧， 减速机价格下降，导致公司收入小幅下降；利润端承压明显，24 年公司扣非归 母净利润同比下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth with a significant increase in infrastructure orders, achieving a revenue of 555.34 billion yuan and a net profit of 15.01 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 1.1% and 0.6% respectively [1][2]. - The real estate development business has shown signs of recovery, with a notable increase in land reserves located in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, totaling 7,625 million square meters [2][4]. - The company has signed new contracts worth 1,270.2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, with significant growth in infrastructure and overseas contracts [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenues from various segments: construction (364.9 billion yuan), infrastructure (128.3 billion yuan), real estate development (53.7 billion yuan), and surveying and design (2.3 billion yuan), with respective year-on-year changes of -0.2%, +0.5%, +15.5%, and -11.3% [2]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 7.8% and 3.2%, showing slight declines compared to the previous year [2]. Contracting and Orders - The company secured new contracts totaling 12,702 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with the construction segment contributing 12,037 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.4% increase year-on-year [3]. - Specific growth in new contracts includes energy engineering (96.6% increase) and municipal engineering (44.4% increase) within the infrastructure sector [3]. Cash Flow and Management - The company has improved its cash flow management, with a net cash outflow from operating activities of 95.85 billion yuan, which is a reduction of 0.74 billion yuan compared to the previous year [4]. - The company has also seen a commitment from its parent group to increase shareholding, indicating confidence in its future performance [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company remains stable, with expected net profits of 47.49 billion yuan, 48.67 billion yuan, and 50.13 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5].

2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 预调鸡尾酒需求仍较疲软，威士忌业务有望提供新增长动能 ——百润股份（002568.SZ）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 增持（维持） 当前价：26.33 元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 10.49 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 276.30 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 15.00/31.70 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 55.04% | 股价相对走势 -25% -7% 11% 29% 47% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 百润股份 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...