Industry Research - The steel sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability to historical average levels due to the emphasis on regulating low-price competition and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity by the Central Financial Committee [1] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio of steel stocks is anticipated to recover alongside profitability, with key recommendations including Liugang Co., Sansteel Minguang, New Steel Co., Shougang Group, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel [1] Company Research - The report on Megmeet Smart (002881.SZ) indicates that AI applications are likely to drive rapid growth in product demand, while the continuous iteration of smart modules and high-performance computing modules is expected to significantly boost the company's performance [2] - The forecast for the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 has been raised to CNY 182 million and CNY 267 million, representing increases of 19% and 41% respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at CNY 357 million [2] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 66, 45, and 34 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a positive long-term growth outlook [2]

2025 年 7 月 3 日 ——钢铁行业动态点评 要点 事件：（ 1）2025 年 7 月 1 日，中央财经委员会第六次会议，研究纵深推进 全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题，会议强调，纵深推进全 国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引 导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出；（2）7 月 2 日，Mysteel 关 于"唐山 7 月 4-15 日烧结机限产 30%"的传闻进行调研，了解到目前约半数钢 厂表示有收到通知，剩余多数钢厂也表示大概率确实有。 2025 年国内钢材需求、净出口量或进一步走弱，预计同比减少 0.34 亿吨。（1） 内需：根据冶金工业规划院预测，2025 年我国钢材需求量约为 8.50 亿吨，同比 -1.5%，较 2024 年减少 0.13 亿吨。（2）净出口：2024 年国内钢材净出口量为 1.04 亿吨（占当年粗钢产量的 10.34%），同比+25.78%。2025 年初以来，韩国、 越南对于我国部分钢材出口反倾销政策陆续落地，叠加美国对华钢铁加征关税政 策的影响，我们预测 2025 年钢材净出口或降至 2023 年水平，同比-0.21 亿吨 ...

大行晨報 - 加元短線或可先行獲利 - 2025 年 7 月 3 日星島日報 / 頭條日報 https://www.stheadline.com/columnists/finance- property/3470009/%E5%A4%A7%E8%A1%8C%E6%99%A8%E5%A0%B1- %E5%8A%A0%E5%85%83%E7%9F%AD%E7%B7%9A%E6%88%96%E5%8F%AF%E5%85%88%E8%A1%8C %E7%8D%B2%E5%88%A9%E5%A4%A7%E8%A1%8C%E6%99%A8%E5%A0%B1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [5]. Core Views - The company adopts a dual-driven product strategy focusing on wireless communication modules and IoT solutions, which creates a competitive advantage through customized solutions for various vertical industries [1]. - The company is committed to high R&D investment, with an allocation of 256 million yuan for 2024, representing 8.69% of revenue, aimed at enhancing product and technological competitiveness [2]. - The company has submitted its application for overseas listing (H shares) to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, indicating plans for expansion and increased market presence [2]. - The company has implemented an incentive plan granting stock options and restricted stocks to key personnel, which may enhance employee motivation and align interests with shareholders [3]. - The forecast for the company's net profit has been revised upwards for 2025 and 2026, with expected profits of 182 million yuan and 267 million yuan respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory driven by AI applications and product iterations [3]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 2,147 million yuan in 2023 to 5,556 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17.79% [4][7]. - The net profit is expected to increase significantly from 65 million yuan in 2023 to 357 million yuan in 2027, indicating a robust growth rate [4][7]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.25 yuan in 2023 to 1.36 yuan in 2027, reflecting improved profitability [4][7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 187 in 2023 to 34 in 2027, suggesting a more attractive valuation over time [4][10]. Key Financial Metrics - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 17.5% to 18.8% from 2025 to 2027, indicating a focus on maintaining profitability despite competitive pressures [9]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 4.4% in 2023 to 15.8% in 2027, reflecting enhanced efficiency in generating profits from equity [9]. - The company’s total assets are anticipated to grow from 2,145 million yuan in 2023 to 3,696 million yuan in 2027, indicating a strengthening balance sheet [8].

Group 1: Market Overview - The coal, float glass, and steel industries are expected to experience negative profit growth year-on-year, while the refining industry maintains stable profitability due to a rebound in oil prices [1] - The overall economic data shows stability, with PMI rolling averages stabilizing and housing sales area declining slightly year-on-year [1] Group 2: Quantitative Analysis - As of June 30, 2025, the proportion of rising stocks in the CSI 300 index increased month-on-month, indicating a high market sentiment with over 60% of stocks rising [2] - Momentum indicators suggest a bullish outlook, with short-term sentiment indicators placing the CSI 300 index in a favorable emotional zone [2] Group 3: Real Estate Sector - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies was CNY 1.8 trillion, with a year-on-year decline of 11.4% [3] - The sales area for the same period was 85.97 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 22.2% [3] - Some leading real estate companies, such as China Jinmao and Yuexiu Property, showed positive sales growth, with increases of 20% and 11% respectively [3] Group 4: Company Research - The report highlights that GoerTek, a leading XR design and manufacturing company, is expected to benefit from the launch of AI glasses by Xiaomi, indicating a positive growth trend in the XR business [4] - The company's market share in XR manufacturing is high, and factors such as the recovery of its headphone business and optimization of its smart hardware product structure are expected to drive revenue growth [4] - The projected PE ratios for GoerTek from 2025 to 2027 are 24X, 20X, and 17X respectively, supporting a "buy" rating for the company [4]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth rates for the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10] - **Model Construction Process**: - The pricing mechanism is determined by the last price index of the previous month, which sets the sales price for the next month[10] - The model incorporates price factors and capacity factors to estimate revenue and profit growth rates on a monthly basis[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability trends, but no significant improvement signals were observed for July 2025[13] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model leverages the stable proportional relationship between hog slaughter and sow inventory lagged by six months to estimate future supply-demand gaps[14] - **Model Construction Process**: - The slaughter coefficient is calculated as: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter} / \text{Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)} $[14] - Future potential supply is estimated as: $ \text{6-Month Potential Supply} = \text{Current Sow Inventory} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (6 Months Ago)} $[15] - Future demand is projected based on historical quarterly slaughter data[15] - **Model Evaluation**: Historical data shows that this method effectively identifies hog price upward cycles[15] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth rates and calculates per-ton profit for the steel industry by considering steel prices and raw material costs[17] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model integrates steel prices with the costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel to estimate profit growth rates[17] - **Model Evaluation**: The model highlights the industry's profit trends but indicates a negative profit growth rate for June 2025[21] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators, and designs allocation signals based on these changes[23] - **Model Construction Process**: - For the glass industry, the model calculates gross profit based on price and cost data[27] - For the cement industry, the model incorporates coal fuel price changes to predict profit growth rates[27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively tracks profitability trends but maintains a neutral signal for both industries due to the lack of significant positive indicators[27] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates profit growth rates and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices, crude oil prices, and new drilling activity[28] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses variations in fuel and crude oil prices to calculate profit growth rates and cracking spreads[28] - Allocation signals are designed based on observed changes in oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling activity[28] - **Model Evaluation**: The model predicts stable profit growth for June 2025 but maintains a neutral signal due to the lack of significant upward trends in oil prices and drilling activity[35][38] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Excess Return**: The model tracks the historical excess return of the coal industry relative to the Wind All-A Index, showing a declining profit trend for July 2025[13] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: The model predicts a balanced supply-demand scenario for Q4 2025, with potential supply at 18,226 million heads and demand at 18,244 million heads[16] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth**: The model forecasts a negative profit growth rate for June 2025, with no significant improvement in PMI rolling averages[21] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: Gross profit for float glass continues to decline year-on-year as of June 2025[27] - **Cement Industry**: Profit growth is predicted to be positive for June 2025, driven by lower coal fuel prices[27] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Profit Growth**: The model predicts stable profit growth for the refining industry in June 2025, with oil prices and new drilling activity showing no significant upward trends[35][38]

Group 1: New Stock Issuance and Market Trends - In June 2025, a total of 8 new stocks were listed, raising a total of 9.153 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 164.8% [1] - Among these, 6 stocks participated in offline issuance, raising a combined amount of 8.730 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 174.1% [1] - The average first-day increase for new stocks on the main board was 188.17%, while the average for the dual-innovation board was 190.72% [1] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Industry Insights - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, aiming to transition China from a "generic drug powerhouse" to an "innovative drug stronghold" [2] - The policy is expected to promote the comprehensive prosperity of innovative drug leading companies, niche biotech sectors, and the CXO industry chain [2] - Recommended companies to watch include Heng Rui Medicine, Innovent Biologics, CanSino Biologics, WuXi AppTec, and Kelaiying [2] Group 3: Company Performance Analysis - The company, Xingsen Technology, has seen continuous revenue growth with significant long-term growth potential [4] - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been revised down to 112 million yuan and 271 million yuan, representing a reduction of 77% and 60% respectively [4] - A new profit forecast for 2027 has been introduced at 442 million yuan, with current stock prices corresponding to PE ratios of 196, 81, and 50 times [4]

- The report includes a quantitative model for calculating single account IPO returns, defined as: $ Single\ Account\ IPO\ Return = min(Account\ Size, Subscription\ Limit) * Winning\ Rate * Return\ Rate $ Parameters: - Winning rate reflects actual IPO results - Return rate uses the first-day average transaction price relative to the issue price for IPOs under the comprehensive registration system, or the opening day price for non-registration system IPOs[41][42][43] - Another formula calculates full subscription returns for A/B/C class investors: $ Full\ Subscription\ Return = Subscription\ Limit * A/B/C\ Class\ Winning\ Rate * Return\ Rate $ This formula assumes maximum subscription and full allocation scenarios[41][42][43] - The report evaluates IPO returns across different market segments: - Main Board: A-class return rate 0.014%, C-class return rate 0.013% - ChiNext: A-class return rate 0.035%, C-class return rate 0.034% - STAR Market: A-class return rate 0.012%, C-class return rate 0.012%[42][43][45] - Monthly cumulative returns for 5-billion-scale accounts: - A-class: June return rate 0.168%, cumulative return rate 0.743% - C-class: June return rate 0.166%, cumulative return rate 0.670%[46][47][48] - Full subscription returns for June: - Main Board: A-class 94,000 yuan, C-class 87,000 yuan - ChiNext: A-class 173,000 yuan, C-class 168,000 yuan - STAR Market: A-class 735,000 yuan, C-class 734,000 yuan[49][50][52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1] Core Insights - The report discusses the issuance of 16 supportive policies by the National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission aimed at enhancing the high-quality development of innovative drugs [3] - It emphasizes a comprehensive support system that includes research and development, market access, payment mechanisms, and clinical application to transition China from a "generic drug powerhouse" to an "innovative drug stronghold" [8] Summary by Sections Research and Development - Data empowerment and the introduction of patient capital are expected to reduce the risks associated with innovative drug development [4] - The policy guidance aims to lower the backend risks of innovative drug research and development [4] Market Access and Payment - The dual drive of medical insurance and commercial insurance is set to expand market opportunities [5] - The dynamic adjustment mechanism for the medical insurance catalog will shorten the time gap between drug approval and market entry [7] - The introduction of a commercial health insurance catalog for innovative drugs will diversify the payment system for high-end innovative drugs [7] Clinical Application - The report highlights the optimization of processes and diversified guarantees to facilitate the final stages of drug application [6] - Encouragement for medical institutions to expedite the use of innovative drugs post-catalog updates is expected to enhance the speed of drug deployment in clinical settings [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading innovative drug companies and specialized biotech firms, including 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine), 信达生物 (Innovent Biologics), 康诺亚 (CanSino Biologics), 药明康德 (WuXi AppTec), and 凯莱英 (Kelun) [8]