Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name: Volume Timing Model** - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses volume signals to time the market, indicating cautious signals when the volume is low. - **Model Construction Process**: The model calculates the volume timing signals for major broad-based indices. The specific process involves assessing the volume levels and determining the market stance based on these levels. - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently maintains a cautious signal for all major broad-based indices.[2][23][24] 2. **Model Name: Momentum Sentiment Indicator** - **Model Construction Idea**: This model captures market sentiment by calculating the proportion of stocks with positive returns within a given period. - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the proportion of stocks in the CSI 300 index with positive returns over the past N days. - Use the formula: $$ \text{Proportion of stocks with positive returns} = \frac{\text{Number of stocks with positive returns in past N days}}{\text{Total number of stocks in CSI 300 index}} $$ - Apply smoothing with different window periods to capture the trend changes. - **Model Evaluation**: The indicator can quickly capture upward opportunities but may miss out on gains during sustained market exuberance. It also has limitations in predicting downturns.[24][25][28] 3. **Model Name: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator** - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the eight moving average system to judge the trend state of the index. - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the eight moving averages for the closing price of the CSI 300 index with parameters 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and 233. - Assign values to the indicator based on the number of moving averages the current price exceeds. - Use the formula: $$ \text{Indicator Value} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if price > 5 moving averages} \\ 0 & \text{if price between 3-5 moving averages} \\ -1 & \text{if price < 3 moving averages} \end{cases} $$ - **Model Evaluation**: The model indicates that the CSI 300 index is currently in a sentiment boom area.[33][34][36] Model Backtesting Results 1. **Volume Timing Model** - **Indicator Value**: Cautious signal for all major broad-based indices[24] 2. **Momentum Sentiment Indicator** - **Indicator Value**: Proportion of stocks with positive returns in CSI 300 index around 64%[25] 3. **Moving Average Sentiment Indicator** - **Indicator Value**: CSI 300 index is in a sentiment boom area[36] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. **Factor Name: Cross-sectional Volatility** - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the dispersion of returns among index constituents to gauge the alpha environment. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the cross-sectional volatility for the constituents of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices. - Use the formula: $$ \text{Cross-sectional Volatility} = \sqrt{\frac{1}{N-1} \sum_{i=1}^{N} (R_i - \bar{R})^2} $$ where \( R_i \) is the return of stock \( i \) and \( \bar{R} \) is the average return. - **Factor Evaluation**: The recent cross-sectional volatility has increased, indicating a better short-term alpha environment for the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 indices.[38][41] 2. **Factor Name: Time-series Volatility** - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the volatility of returns over time for index constituents to assess the alpha environment. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the time-series volatility for the constituents of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices. - Use the formula: $$ \text{Time-series Volatility} = \sqrt{\frac{1}{T-1} \sum_{t=1}^{T} (R_t - \bar{R})^2} $$ where \( R_t \) is the return at time \( t \) and \( \bar{R} \) is the average return. - **Factor Evaluation**: The recent time-series volatility has increased for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices, indicating a better alpha environment.[42][44] Factor Backtesting Results 1. **Cross-sectional Volatility** - **CSI 300**: Recent quarterly average 1.66%, 66.11% of the past half-year[41] - **CSI 500**: Recent quarterly average 1.94%, 39.68% of the past half-year[41] - **CSI 1000**: Recent quarterly average 2.32%, 54.58% of the past half-year[41] 2. **Time-series Volatility** - **CSI 300**: Recent quarterly average 0.53%, 65.49% of the past half-year[44] - **CSI 500**: Recent quarterly average 0.41%, 57.14% of the past half-year[44] - **CSI 1000**: Recent quarterly average 0.25%, 54.98% of the past half-year[44]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed signs of recovery this week, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.3% and the Shanghai 50 Index increasing by 0.4%, indicating a general upward trend in major indices [1][11][12] - The valuation of the entire A-share market is currently at a medium level compared to historical data since 2010 [1][19] - The communication, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors performed relatively well, with respective increases of 5.3%, 3.7%, and 3.6%, while sectors like household appliances, food and beverage, and transportation saw declines of 1.8%, 1.1%, and 0.5% [1][14][19] Group 2 - Recent domestic events include the launch of the "Service Consumption Season" and the "New Energy Vehicle Going to the Countryside" initiative, which are part of the government's efforts to stabilize growth [2][20][22] - External events such as the phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Trump, and the tightening of regulations by the SEC on foreign companies listed in the US, are significant factors influencing market sentiment [2][20][32] - The overall domestic economy remains stable, supported by growth policies, and is expected to show resilience in the second quarter, which will provide support for the market [2][21][23] Group 3 - The report emphasizes three main investment themes: 1. Domestic consumption, which is expected to receive policy support and has shown resilience in performance [4][43] 2. Domestic substitution, focusing on industries with high import ratios from the US but strong domestic supply capabilities, such as publishing and construction materials [4][44] 3. Sectors that are currently underweighted by funds, including banking, non-bank financials, public utilities, and transportation, which may present long-term investment opportunities [4][45] Group 4 - The report suggests that the market style may shift towards defensive and undervalued sectors, with coal, public utilities, banking, non-bank financials, construction decoration, and oil and petrochemicals being highlighted as sectors worth attention [51]

Employment Data - In May 2025, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 130,000 jobs and slightly down from the revised previous value of 147,000 jobs[1][13][15] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, matching both the forecast and the previous month's rate[1][13][15] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.7% and matching the previous value[1][13][15] Sector Performance - The leisure and hospitality sector saw a significant increase, adding 48,000 jobs, up from 29,000 in the previous month, contributing to the stability of the overall employment data[2][24] - Manufacturing jobs decreased by 5,000, a decline from the previous increase of 14,000, indicating pressure from tariff disruptions[3][23] - Financial activities added 13,000 jobs, up from 3,000 previously, showing a recovery in this sector[3][24] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 62.4%, with notable declines in youth employment willingness[4][29] - The U3 unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, with a slight increase of 71,000 in the number of unemployed individuals[4][35] - The U6 unemployment rate, which includes those working part-time for economic reasons, held steady at 7.8%[4][35] Federal Reserve Outlook - The robust non-farm data reinforces the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach, with a near 100% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged in June 2025[5][19] - Market expectations indicate two rate cuts in 2025, with the first anticipated in September, having a probability of approximately 50%[5][19][22]

Market Performance - The weighted REITs index rose to 142.42 with a weekly return of 1.74%[1] - REITs outperformed A-shares (1.47%), US stocks (0.97%), and pure bonds (0.08%), but lagged behind convertible bonds (2.39%), gold (1.93%), and crude oil (3.95%) in returns[1][15] - Among asset types, municipal facility REITs had the highest increase, with top three returns from municipal facilities (3.66%), transportation infrastructure (3.37%), and water conservancy facilities (2.12%)[20] Trading Volume and Turnover - Total trading volume for public REITs was 2.09 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.67%[2][26] - The top three asset types by trading volume were transportation infrastructure (718 million yuan), park infrastructure (490 million yuan), and warehousing logistics (218 million yuan)[26] - The highest turnover rates were seen in water conservancy (1.02%), park infrastructure (0.77%), and ecological environment (0.75%) REITs[26] Net Inflows and Block Trades - Total net inflow for the week was 9.05 million yuan, indicating increased market trading enthusiasm[2][32] - The top three asset types for net inflows were transportation infrastructure (10.64 million yuan), park infrastructure (5.91 million yuan), and water conservancy (3.05 million yuan)[32] - Total block trade volume reached 123.93 million yuan, with the highest single-day trade on June 4 at 38.25 million yuan[3][33]

Employment Data - In May 2025, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 130,000 jobs and slightly down from the revised previous value of 147,000 jobs[1][15] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, matching both the forecast and the previous month's rate[1][15] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.7% and matching the previous value after revision[1][15] Sector Performance - The leisure and hospitality sector saw a significant increase, adding 48,000 jobs in May, up from 29,000 in the previous month, contributing to the overall employment stability[2][24] - Manufacturing jobs decreased by 5,000, contrasting with a previous increase of 14,000, indicating pressure from tariff disruptions[3][23] - Financial activities added 13,000 jobs, up from 3,000 in the previous month, showing a recovery in this sector[3][24] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 62.4%, with notable declines in youth employment willingness[4][29] - The U3 unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, with a slight increase of 71,000 in the number of unemployed individuals[4][35] - The U6 unemployment rate, which includes those working part-time for economic reasons, held steady at 7.8%[4][35] Federal Reserve Outlook - The robust non-farm data reinforces the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach, with a near 100% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged in June 2025[5][19] - Market expectations indicate two potential rate cuts in 2025, with the first anticipated in September, having a probability of approximately 50%[5][19]

2025 年 6 月 7 日 行业研究 6 月流动性展望 ——流动性观察第 110 期 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 3 月金融数据前瞻及 4 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 108 期 2 月金融数据前瞻及 3 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 107 期 1 月金融数据前瞻及 2 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 106 期 12 月金融数据前瞻及 1 月流动性展望——流动性 观察第 105 期 11 月金融数据前瞻及 12 月流动性展望——流动性 观察第 104 期 10 月金融数据前瞻及 11 月流动性展望——流动性 观察第 103 期 9 月金融数据前瞻及 10 月流动性展望——流动性 观察第 102 期 8 月金融数据前瞻及 9 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 101 期 要点 相关研报 4 月金融数据前 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guoke Microelectronics (300672.SZ) with a current price of 81.06 CNY [1]. Core Insights - Guoke Microelectronics is acquiring a 94.366% stake in Zhongxin Ningbo to integrate the entire industry chain and break the overseas monopoly in the filter market [5][6]. - The acquisition is expected to enhance Guoke's product and business diversity, focusing on AI SoC and expanding into automotive and wireless sectors [10][14]. - The company is projected to benefit from the growth of AI SoC, with net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being adjusted upwards by 17% and 48% compared to previous estimates [13][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Guoke Microelectronics focuses on chip design and development, providing solutions in AI, multimedia, automotive electronics, IoT, and data storage [10]. - The acquisition of Zhongxin Ningbo will allow Guoke to build capabilities in specialized wafer manufacturing and advanced packaging, transitioning to a full industry chain model [10][12]. Market Position - Zhongxin Ningbo is a leading domestic semiconductor foundry specializing in RF front-end, MEMS, and high-voltage analog devices, aiming to break the overseas monopoly in high-end filter technology [6][7]. - The company has established long-term supply agreements with major domestic mobile communication terminal enterprises, ensuring stable revenue streams [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue for Guoke is expected to decline in 2024 but net profit is projected to grow, with estimates for 2025-2027 being 137 million, 204 million, and 257 million CNY respectively [15][16]. - The report outlines a significant drop in revenue growth rate for 2024 at -53.26%, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [15]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including revenue, net profit, and key ratios such as P/E and P/B, indicating a gradual improvement in profitability and efficiency over the forecast period [15][18].

——可转债周报（2025 年 6 月 3 日至 2025 年 6 月 6 日） 要点 1、市场行情 本周（2025 年 6 月 3 日至 6 月 6 日，共 4 个交易日）转债市场继续回暖；本周 中证转债指数涨跌幅为+1.1%（上一交易周为+0.2%），本周中证全指变动为 +1.5%。2025 年开年以来，中证转债涨跌幅为+4.7%，中证全指数涨跌幅为 +1.8%，转债市场表现好于权益市场。 2025 年 6 月 6 日 总量研究 持续回暖 分评级来看，高评级券（评级为 AA+及以上）、中评级券（评级为 AA）、低评 级券（评级为 AA-及以下）本周涨跌幅分别为+0.93%、+1.34%、+1.82%，低 评级券本周涨幅最大。分转债规模看，大规模转债（债券余额大于 50 亿元）、 中规模转债（余额在 5 至 50 亿元之间）、小规模转债（余额小于 5 亿元）本周 涨跌幅分别为+0.68%、+1.30%和+1.96%，小规模转债涨幅最大。分平价来看， 超高平价券（转股价值大于 130 元）、高平价券（转股价值在 110 至 130 元之 间）、中平价券（转股价值在 90 至 110 元之间）、低平价券（转股价值 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guoke Microelectronics (300672.SZ) with a current price of 81.06 CNY [1]. Core Insights - Guoke Microelectronics is acquiring a 94.366% stake in Zhongxin Ningbo, a leading domestic semiconductor foundry, to break the overseas monopoly in the high-end filter market [5][6]. - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in chip design and manufacturing, particularly in high-end filters, which are crucial for communication technologies [10][12]. - The company is focusing on an "ALL IN AI" strategy, aiming to develop AI SoCs and expand into automotive and wireless sectors, which aligns with industry trends [10][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Guoke Microelectronics specializes in chip design and is a leading provider of solutions in AI, multimedia, automotive electronics, IoT, and data storage [10]. - The acquisition of Zhongxin Ningbo will allow Guoke to integrate the entire supply chain from chip design to wafer processing, enhancing its competitive edge [12]. Market Position - Zhongxin Ningbo is positioned to disrupt the high-end filter market, currently dominated by foreign companies like Murata and Broadcom, which hold significant market shares [6][7]. - The company has established long-term supply agreements with major domestic mobile communication terminal manufacturers, ensuring stable revenue streams [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue for Guoke Microelectronics is projected to decline in 2024 but is expected to recover with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) driven by AI SoC growth [13]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated at 137 million, 204 million, and 257 million CNY respectively, reflecting a significant increase from previous estimates [13][15]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including revenue growth rates and profit margins, indicating a strategic shift towards higher-margin AI products [15][18]. - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 183 in 2023 to 68 by 2027, suggesting improved valuation as the business scales [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the chemical industry, specifically highlighting the potential in the pesticide sector due to recent price increases and supply constraints [5]. Core Insights - The pesticide industry in China is undergoing structural optimization driven by stringent environmental regulations, leading to a gradual increase in the market share of high-efficiency, low-risk pesticides while phasing out older, more toxic products [1][2]. - The recent explosion at Youdao Chemical has impacted the supply of chlorantraniliprole, which is expected to drive up prices due to supply constraints [2][3]. - The price index for pesticide raw materials has reached a low point, with a slight increase noted, indicating a potential turning point for channel inventory [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Pesticide Industry Overview - China's pesticide product structure is being optimized, with a focus on reducing the use of high-risk products and increasing the market share of new, efficient pesticides [1]. - The pesticide raw material price index as of May 30, 2025, is 73.33 points, reflecting a 0.44 point increase since the beginning of the year [1]. 2. Supply Chain Impact - The explosion at Youdao Chemical on May 27, 2025, has disrupted the supply of chlorantraniliprole, which is the largest production facility globally with a capacity of 11,000 tons [2]. - The incident is expected to lead to stricter approvals and regulations for high-risk chemical reactions, benefiting leading chemical companies with better safety protocols and production technologies [2]. 3. Price Adjustments - ST Hongtai has raised the price of chlorantraniliprole to 300,000 yuan per ton due to increased costs from upstream raw material shortages [3]. - As of May 30, 2025, the market price for chlorantraniliprole was reported at 230,000 yuan per ton, marking a 2.22% increase from the previous day [3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing companies in the oil and gas sector, as well as those benefiting from domestic substitution trends in materials [4]. - Specific companies to watch include China Petroleum, China Petrochemical, and Wanhu Chemical, among others [4].