周度经济观察 ————开门红的经济数据成色几何？ 袁方1束加沛2 张端怡（联系人）3 2025 年 3 月 18 日 内容提要 1-2 月投资和消费活动走强，出口小幅减速，最终导致经济在去年的高水平 上轻微下滑。经济高增长背后更多与稳增长政策的效果有关，而市场主体的内生 增长动能不强。 国投证券宏观定期报告 往后看，二季度经济往往会呈现出季节性走弱的态势，而经济下滑的斜率更 多取决于房地产市场的表现与政策的持续性。当前房地产市场处于微妙的平衡 阶段，稳增长政策在基建领域仍在发力，同时消费领域正在经历新的政策模式。 需要密切留意这些领域的变化。 考虑到今年经济下行的斜率趋缓，以及此前市场对降息的过度定价，我们倾 向于认为长端利率年内的低点或许在今年初已经出现。今年债券存在阶段性机 会，比如资金面的短期转松、经济的季节性回落，不过全年来看或许较为逆风。 风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险 （2）政策出台超预期 证券研究报告/国投证券宏观定期报告 第 1 页，共 13 页 2025 年 3 月 1宏观分析师，yuanfang@essence.com.cn，S1450520080004 2宏观分析师，shujp@essen ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the building materials industry, indicating an expected investment return that will exceed the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the second-hand housing market remains robust, with significant year-on-year increases in transaction volumes, particularly in first-tier cities, which is expected to drive demand for building materials [3][9]. - The government is implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on both supply and demand sides, which is anticipated to further support the building materials sector [2]. - Price increases announced by leading companies in the building materials sector signal an improvement in profitability, as competition on the supply side is easing [8][9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - From January to March 16, 2025, the transaction area of second-hand houses in 16 cities increased by 34.3% year-on-year, with first-tier cities showing a 45.2% increase [3]. - The report notes that the sales prices of new residential properties in first-tier cities have stabilized, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1% [7]. Policy Environment - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds for local governments in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supporting real estate investments and addressing local government debts [2]. Industry Dynamics - Leading companies in the building materials sector, such as Nippon Paint and Oriental Yuhong, have announced price increases ranging from 1% to 5% for various products, indicating a trend towards improved profitability [8][9]. - The report suggests that the focus on consumer (C-end) business and the release of demand from home decoration subsidies will benefit the building materials sector [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to the company with a target price of 125.20 CNY over the next six months, compared to a current stock price of 109.80 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company, Xianglou New Materials, is a leader in the domestic high-end precision stamping materials market, with a stable profit margin and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% in revenue and 29% in net profit from 2018 to 2023. The average gross margin and net margin are 22% and 11%, respectively [1][8]. - The company is positioned to lead the domestic substitution of high-end precision stamping materials in the automotive parts sector, leveraging advantages in delivery time, cost-effectiveness, and service [1][2]. - Xianglou is the only domestic manufacturer innovating materials for harmonic reducer flexible wheels, which are critical for humanoid robots, and is currently in the testing phase with potential clients [3][7]. Summary by Sections Main Business - The company has a solid foundation in the automotive high-end precision stamping materials market, contributing significantly to its revenue. In the first half of 2024, automotive precision stamping materials accounted for 87.89% of total revenue [16][25]. - The company has established stable partnerships with well-known automotive parts manufacturers, achieving a market share of approximately 19% in the domestic automotive precision stamping materials sector [6][24]. New Business - Xianglou has a strong competitive advantage in the harmonic reducer flexible wheel materials, which are essential for the production of humanoid robots. The company is currently developing materials for various components, including planetary gears [3][7]. - The potential market for flexible wheel materials is estimated to be between 1.4 billion to 2.8 billion CNY, assuming a production scale of 1 million humanoid robots [3][7]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.57 billion, 1.83 billion, and 2.16 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 202 million, 253 million, and 307 million CNY [8][9]. - The report indicates a favorable valuation with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 43X, 34X, and 28X for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [8].

2025 年 03 月 17 日 药明康德(603259.SH) 核心业务快速回暖，2025 年经营改善可期 事件： 公司发布了 2024 年年度报告，2024 年公司分别实现营收和归母净利 润 392.41 亿元和 94.50 亿元，分别同比下降 2.73%和 1.63%。 公司订单持续复苏，公司经营环比改善明显： 收入端，2024 年公司实现营收 392.41 亿元，同比下降 2.73%。其中， 化学业务、测试业务、生物学业务分别实现营收 290.52 亿元（- 0.41%）、56.71 亿元（-4.82%）、25.44 亿元（-0.34%）。 利润端，2024 年公司实现归母净利润 94.50 亿元，同比下降 1.63%。 其中，2024Q4 公司实现归母净利润 29.17 亿元，较 2024Q3 环比增长 27.22%。得益于公司订单持续复苏，公司经营环比改善明显。 核心业务快速回暖，2025 年公司收入有望重回双位数增长： 全球创新药投融持续复苏背景下，公司在手订单快速回暖且产能积极 投放，2025 年公司经营有望持续改善。在手订单方面，截止 2024 年 末，公司在手订单高达 493.1 亿元，同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of Buy-A for the company [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 27.617 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.63%, and a net profit of 3.368 billion yuan, up 18.05% year-on-year [1][2]. - The core business, Consumer Health Care (CHC), showed robust growth with a revenue of 12.482 billion yuan, increasing by 14.13% year-on-year, solidifying the company's position in the self-medication sector [3][10]. - The strategic acquisition of a 28% stake in Tian Shi Li is expected to enhance synergies in innovation, manufacturing, and marketing, thereby strengthening the company's competitive edge in the industry [11]. Financial Performance - In Q4, the company reported a revenue of 7.876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.47%, but a net profit decline of 9.39% [1]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 51.86%, a decrease of 1.39 percentage points, while the net profit margin improved slightly to 13.68%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points [2]. - The company anticipates revenue growth rates of 10.3%, 10.4%, and 10.5% for 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 13.5%, 14.5%, and 14.6% respectively [11][13]. Business Segments - The prescription drug segment generated a revenue of 6.006 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.04%, driven by enhanced medical leadership and product commercialization [4][10]. - The traditional Chinese medicine segment achieved a revenue of 5.213 billion yuan, up 7.33% year-on-year, while the pharmaceutical commercial segment reported a revenue of 3.373 billion yuan, a 2.06% increase [10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully launched several new products in the self-medication category, including 999 Ice Lianqing Throat Spray and 999 Yipingfeng Oral Liquid, contributing to its market leadership [3][10]. - The integration with Kunming Pharmaceutical Group is progressing steadily, focusing on brand recognition and market positioning for their products [10]. Valuation - The six-month target price for the company is set at 53.57 yuan, which corresponds to an 18 times dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the issuance of special bonds is accelerating, and with the arrival of the construction peak season, infrastructure investment growth is expected to improve [2][16] - The government is focused on stabilizing the real estate market, with policies aimed at both supply and demand sides, which is expected to support a recovery in real estate demand [3][18] - The report suggests that the construction sector is likely to benefit from increased government investment and the implementation of debt relief measures, leading to improved operational metrics for construction companies [11][12] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics Analysis - The issuance of special bonds has increased significantly, and with the construction peak season approaching, infrastructure investment growth may see improvement. As of the end of February, the broad money (M2) balance was 320.52 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7% [16][18] - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with significant increases in second-hand housing transactions in major cities. From the beginning of the year to March 12, the daily average transaction volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen increased by 35.10%, 50.52%, and 65.63% respectively [3][18] Market Performance - The construction industry rose by 1.60% from March 10 to March 14, outperforming the Shenzhen Composite Index (1.24%) and the CSI 300 Index (1.59%). The renovation and decoration sector saw the highest increase at 3.49% [19][22] - The report highlights key stocks to watch, including major state-owned enterprises in construction, which are expected to benefit from improved operational metrics and valuation recovery [11][28] Key Focus Stocks - The report recommends focusing on undervalued construction state-owned enterprises such as China State Construction, China Communications Construction, China Railway Construction, and China Railway Group, which are expected to see improvements in operational metrics due to favorable fiscal policies [11][12][28] - It also suggests paying attention to construction design firms and international engineering service providers that are expanding their presence in the Belt and Road Initiative countries [12][28]

2025 年 03 月 16 日 电子 存储芯片库存逐步下降，行业价格现拐点 继闪迪 3 月 6 日宣布 4 月 1 日起全系产品提价超 10%后，三星、 美光、SK 海力士等五大原厂累计收缩 35%产能（三星 NAND 减产 20%、美光砍 10%），直接推动全球存储芯片库存从 2024 年峰值 的 112 天降至 68 天（WSTS 数据）。价格方面，CFM 中国闪存 市场表示，长江存储零售品牌致态也将于 4 月起面向渠道上调 提货价格。此外，美光、三星电子、SK 海力士也有意调升 NAND 售价。总体来看，在 NAND 闪存市场供需关系即将迅速变化至 有利供方的背景下，NAND 价格将重回上升通道。 电子本周涨幅 0.62%（29/31），10 年 PE 百分位为 78.71%： （1）本周（2025.3.10-2025.3.16）上证指数上涨 1.39%，深证成 指上涨 1.24%，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.59%，申万电子版块下跌 0.62%， 电子行业在全行业中的涨跌幅排名为 29/31。 （2）本周（2025.3.10-2025.3.16）电子版块涨幅前三公司分别为 C 汉朔（+156.98% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that several newly included innovative drugs in the medical insurance directory are rapidly entering hospitals, with some drugs exceeding 100 hospital entries [2][20] - The new drug market saw significant fluctuations, with top gainers including Tengsheng Bo Pharmaceutical (22.17%) and He Bo Pharmaceutical (20.38%), while top losers included Yiming Anke (-23.51%) and Kexi Pharmaceutical (-20.80%) [1][15] Summary by Sections Weekly New Drug Market Review - From March 10 to March 14, 2025, the new drug sector experienced notable gains, with the top five companies showing significant increases in stock prices [1][15] Key Analysis of the New Drug Industry - The National Healthcare Security Administration updated the hospital entry data for innovative drugs included in the medical insurance directory as of the end of January 2025, indicating a rapid entry of several new domestic innovative drugs [2][20] New Drug Approvals and Applications - This week, 13 new drugs or new indications were approved for market entry, 77 new drugs received IND approvals, 40 new IND applications were accepted, and 5 new NDA applications were accepted [3][22] Domestic New Drug Industry Focus - Key highlights include the approval of a new indication for a targeted ADC drug by Kelun Bo Pharmaceutical, the acceptance of a joint application for a targeted ADC by Zai Lab and Seagen, and the approval of a new drug by Innovent Biologics for treating thyroid eye disease [4][22] Overseas New Drug Industry Focus - Significant developments include the announcement of clinical data for an oral peptide inhibitor for ulcerative colitis by Johnson & Johnson and Protagonist, and a collaboration between Roche and Zealand Pharma for a long-acting insulin analog [12]

国投证券研究报告 2025年3月16日 2025W11 国投家电 一周看图 格 力 计划推出 子品牌 晶 弘 空 调 分析师 李奕臻 S1450520020001 韩星雨 S1450522080002 余昆 S1450521070002 陈伟浩 S1450523050002 陆偲聪 S1450522100001 格力计划推出子品牌晶弘空调 家电行业首席分析师李奕臻： 格力将推出子品牌晶弘空调，主要面向学校、医院 等工程机市场。近年美的、海尔通过子品牌华凌、 统帅持续抢占中低端空调市场份额。格力在空调市 场的价格带较高，晶弘空调的推出将补齐格力在中 低端市场的布局。如果后续晶弘空调进入To C市场， 有望凭借母公司的供应链和渠道优势快速打开中低 端市场。 行业评级： 领先大市-A 风险提示： 行业竞争风险、原材料价格波动风险等。 格力计划推出晶弘品牌空调 ◼ 格力晶弘品牌空调将面市。晶弘是此前格力在冰箱市场使用的品牌。根据第一财经新闻，格力将 推出子品牌晶弘空调，主要面向学校、医院等工程机市场，暂时不会进入To C市场。 图： 晶弘品牌 资料来源： 第一财经， 值得买，国投证券证券研究所 晶弘空调将补足格力在中 ...

2025 年 03 月 16 日 理想汽车-W(02015.HK) 24Q4 业绩符合预期，智驾布局加速、期待纯电新品周期 事件：理想汽车发布 2024Q4 业绩，2024Q4 实现营业收入 443 亿元（符 合此前指引中枢），同比+6%、环比+3%；净利润 35 亿元，同比-39%、环比 +25%；Non-GAAP 净利润 40 亿元，同比-12%、环比+5%。全年实现营业收入 1445 亿元，同比增加 17%，实现净利润 80 亿元、同比-32%，Non-GAAP 净 利润 107 亿元、同比-13%。 营业利润再创历史新高，单车利润环比增长。 受益补贴和权益放大，Q4 交付量提升带动营收增长。 2024Q4 公司汽车业务实现营收 426 亿元，同比+6%，环比+3%。24Q4 汽车交 付量为 15.9 万辆，同比+20%，环比+4%，报告期内受益于国补地补政策以 及终端权益放大（11 月 29 日推出全系 3 年 0 息方案），交付量及汽车业务 营收实现同环比增长。 受产品结构及权益放大影响，单车 ASP、毛利率有所下滑。 2024Q4 单车 ASP 约为 26.9 万元，同比下滑 3.8 万元、环比下 ...