2024 年 3 月 16 日 谁在买顺周期？ 本周上证指数涨 1.39%，沪深 300 涨 1.59%，恒生指数跌 1.12%。价值风格表 现强于成长风格，本周全 A 日均交易额 16557 亿，环比上周有所下降。2 月下 旬以来我们陆续外发《98℃的科技》、《准备好！"高切低"》与《低位的回 旋》强调：98 度的科技意味着短期科技行情逐渐走向过热，多项客观统计数据 使暗示高切低的可能性在大幅度提升。从目前来看，"高切低"的判断依然是是 准确且前瞻的：在过去 2-3 周时间低位顺周期获得相对收益回升（涨价线（例 如：部分有色金属））同时低位高股息绝对收益有望阶段性得以修复，相对于眼 下科技缺乏普涨动力但也未出现大面积退潮。 对于本轮高切低的过程中，一个重要问题是"谁在买顺周期？"。在此，通过测 算近期重仓不同行业的基金净值超额回报和行业指数超额回报的相关系数，可 以模拟各类风格的基金对于特定的行业的暴露。发现：1、本轮以食品饮料为代 表消费上涨，可能主要以消费风格基金和红利风格资金小幅加仓消费的迹象； 2、本轮以有色金属为代表的涨价线行情，可以观察到红利风格资金的存在调仓 行为，3、没有观察到科技成长资金明 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Bank is maintained at Buy-A with a 6-month target price of 14.17 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 11.97 CNY [4]. Core Views - Ping An Bank's revenue growth is under pressure due to ongoing transformation and restructuring, with a reported revenue decline of 10.93% year-on-year for 2024 [1]. - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.19% year-on-year, indicating a divergence between revenue and profit growth [1]. - The bank's asset quality shows signs of improvement, with a decrease in the non-performing loan generation rate to 1.8% in 2024, down 9 basis points year-on-year [10][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Ping An Bank's operating revenue was 146.695 billion CNY, with a projected revenue decline of 7.76% for 2025 [14]. - The bank's net profit for 2024 was 44.508 billion CNY, with an expected slight increase to 44.899 billion CNY in 2025 [14]. - The bank's net interest margin for Q4 2024 was reported at 1.70%, down 41 basis points year-on-year [3][9]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.06% as of Q4 2024, with improvements in various loan categories [33]. - The bank has increased its provision coverage ratio, maintaining a stable credit cost despite the pressure on profit growth [10][12]. Retail Business - The retail business is undergoing structural adjustments, with a focus on reducing high-risk loans, leading to a decline in retail credit [2][12]. - The bank's retail assets under management (AUM) showed slight growth, benefiting from improved market conditions in Q4 2024 [11][37]. Credit Growth - New credit issuance in Q4 2024 was 5.7 billion CNY, indicating a slight recovery compared to previous quarters, although retail credit remains under pressure [20]. - The bank's overall credit growth is expected to remain weak in 2025, with ongoing efforts to reduce high-risk retail loans [12][13].

本期要点：短期顺周期+消费为主，成长关注军工 上期提到，市场或已有企稳回升的迹象，并且倾向于将当时的走势格 局和 2024 年 4 月初进行类比。事后来看，这一判断已基本被证实。 周五的阳线出来之后，我们的全天候择时模型再次发出看多信号，如 果继续类比 2024 年的相关走势，那么当前或可参考的是 2024 年 4 月 中下旬及之后的走势，后续震荡向上的概率较大。 在大小盘风格上，我们的风格轮动模型已经明确指出，由于前期大小 盘分化较为极端，当前有风格收敛的诉求，后续大盘风格占优的概率 更大。这一特点与 2024 年 4 月及之后的大盘风格占优的现象或许也 将保持一致。 行业上，上周四轮驱动模型除了顺周期板块（有色金属等）之外，还 发出了消费板块（家电、零售、食饮等）相关的行业多头信号。除此 之外，我们前期提示过而且当前仍在有效期内的军工板块或仍然值得 关注。历史数据表明，近 10 年来，除 2015 年四季度外，在大部分牛 市氛围行情的后半段，军工板块或都有望跑赢市场指数。 风险提示：根据历史数据构建的模型在市场变化时可能失效。 金融工程定期报告 证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 15 日 短期顺周期+ ...

2025 年 03 月 14 日 胜宏科技(300476.SZ) 长 事件： 3 月 11 日公司发布 2025 年一季度业绩预告，预计归属于上市公司股 东的净利润 78,000 万元–98,000 万元，比上年同期增长 272.12% - 367.54%。 精准把握 AI 历史新机遇，高价值产品订单规模快速上升： 公司坚定深耕 AI 大客户不动摇，精准把握 AI 算力技术革新与数据 中心升级浪潮带来的历史新机遇，占据全球 PCB 制造技术制高点， 凭借研发技术优势、制造技术优势和品质技术优势，驱动公司高价值 量产品的订单规模急速上升，盈利能力进一步增强。2024 年公司高 多层、HDI 实现了量产，并突破超高多层板、高阶 HDI 相结合的新 技术，实现了 PTFE 等新材料的应用。报告期内，公司经营业绩突破 历史新高，净利润同比成倍增长。 产品良率不断提升，高端新品持续突破： 公告披露，公司 2024Q4 开始真正实现大客户量产交付，经过不断的 技术攻关梳理，至 2025Q1 产品良率有明显提高，净利润环比大幅增 长。新产品方面，随着芯片密度提升，公司不断加大 AI 相关的产品 研发，包括高密度高精度的混合 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to the company with a target price of 15.0 CNY for the next six months [3][8]. Core Views - The company is recognized as a global leader in fiberglass production, with a strong competitive moat and resilience in operations, indicating a recovery in profitability starting in 2024 [1][8]. - The report highlights the expected improvement in demand from the wind power and automotive sectors, which will drive the recovery of fiberglass prices and profitability in 2025 [2][3][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, China Jushi Co., Ltd., is a leading fiberglass manufacturer with six production bases globally and an annual production capacity of nearly 3 million tons, ranking first in the world [1][17]. - The company has demonstrated strong operational resilience, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.79% in revenue and 33.52% in net profit from 2010 to 2022 [1][26]. Business Expansion - The company has expanded its production capacity significantly over the years, establishing a global presence and becoming the largest fiberglass supplier in the U.S. and Egypt [23][24]. - The company has initiated a transition towards smart manufacturing and zero-carbon production, enhancing its competitive edge [17][25]. Operational Performance - In 2023, the company faced challenges with a decline in revenue and net profit due to weakened industry demand and price drops, with revenues of 14.88 billion CNY and a net profit of 3.04 billion CNY [1][26]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in 2024, with quarterly improvements in revenue and net profit as the market stabilizes [28]. Product Segments - The demand for roving and electronic fabrics is expected to grow, driven by the wind power and automotive sectors, with a projected increase in fiberglass production to 7.56 million tons in 2024 [2][3]. - The electronic fabric segment is poised for recovery in 2025, supported by advancements in AI and increased demand for electronic components [3][6]. Financial Forecast - The report forecasts revenues of 15.93 billion CNY, 19.22 billion CNY, and 20.77 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.04 billion CNY, 3.00 billion CNY, and 3.56 billion CNY [9][8]. - The company is expected to maintain a leading gross margin of 29.77% in 2023, outperforming its peers [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the market, suggesting a potential upward trend after a period of adjustment [1][10]. Core Insights - The current market conditions are compared to early April 2024, where a similar pattern of adjustment followed by a rebound is observed. The market is expected to experience a style shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks [1][10]. - The report's style rotation model has signaled a shift towards large-cap stocks, indicating that they may outperform in the near future. The copper-gold ratio is nearing a 10-year low, suggesting that small-cap stocks may face pressure if this ratio begins to rise [2][10]. - The four-wheel drive model highlights sectors such as non-ferrous metals, military industry, and food and beverage as areas of potential investment interest [11]. Summary by Sections Market Highlights - The market has shown signs of stabilization with a three-day upward trend following a minor adjustment. The all-weather timing model has issued a bullish signal, indicating a potential recovery [1][10]. - The report draws parallels between the current market and the situation in early April 2024, suggesting limited downside risk and a higher probability of a gradual upward movement [1][10]. Market Judgment Logic - The style rotation model has confirmed a shift towards large-cap stocks, which are expected to dominate in the upcoming period. The copper-gold ratio's proximity to historical lows may indicate a challenging environment for small-cap stocks [2][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - AstraZeneca's oral selective estrogen receptor degrader (SERD) camizestrant has shown significant clinical improvement in progression-free survival (PFS) for HR+/HER2- breast cancer patients in the SERENA-6 trial, indicating potential market expansion for oral SERDs [4][17]. - Currently, only Menarini's elacestrant is approved for HR+/HER2- breast cancer treatment, while several other oral SERDs, including camizestrant, are in phase 3 trials, suggesting a promising future for this drug class in the domestic market [18]. Summary by Sections New Drug Market Review - From March 3 to March 9, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock performance were: Maibo Pharmaceutical (78.79%), Hengrui Medicine (30.19%), CloudTop New Drug (29.49%), Heyu Biotech (26.04%), and Deqi Medicine (24.90%). The bottom five were: Youzhiyou (-23.28%), Beihai Kangcheng (-13.33%), Junshengtai (-12.17%), Baili Tianheng (-9.44%), and Maiwei Biotech (-7.96%) [3][14]. Key Industry Analysis - AstraZeneca's camizestrant, in combination with CDK4/6 inhibitors, has demonstrated statistically significant improvements in PFS for HR+/HER2- breast cancer patients, marking a breakthrough in first-line treatment options [4][17]. - The report highlights that the oral SERD market is currently underdeveloped in China, with no approved products, but several candidates are in advanced clinical stages, indicating a potential for market growth [18]. New Drug Approval & Acceptance - This week, 64 new drugs received IND approval in China, 39 new drug IND applications were accepted, and 3 new drug NDA applications were accepted [5][21]. Domestic New Drug Industry Highlights - On March 4, BeiGene's anti-PD-1 monoclonal antibody, Tislelizumab, received FDA approval for a new indication in combination with platinum-based chemotherapy for adult patients with unresectable or metastatic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma expressing PD-L1 [6][30]. - On March 4, the new PD-1, VEGF, and CTLA-4 tri-specific antibody CS2009 from CStone Pharmaceuticals completed its first patient dosing in a global phase 1 clinical trial [6][30]. - On March 7, the siRNA drug SGB-9768 targeting complement C3 from Saintin Biopharma initiated a phase 2 clinical trial in China [10][30].

Economic Framework - The government work report maintains a "steady progress" tone, emphasizing proactive and effective policies for 2025[1] - The fiscal deficit rate is set at 4%, with an increase in fiscal funds to CNY 2.9 trillion, reflecting significant policy commitment[1][10] - The GDP growth target is set at around 5%, consistent with previous years, indicating a focus on medium to long-term economic stability[9] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit scale reaches CNY 5.66 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 39.4%, with a broad deficit rate of 9.3%[10] - Special bonds amount to CNY 4.4 trillion, aimed at infrastructure and local government support[11] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated in Q2 2025[12] - The report emphasizes aligning social financing and money supply growth with economic growth and inflation expectations[12] Technology and Innovation - The focus on technology policy includes support for AI, 6G, and quantum technology, with an emphasis on large-scale application demonstrations[14] - The "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative aims to enhance the application of AI across various sectors, driving demand in hardware and software[14] Consumption and Demand - Policies to boost consumption include a doubling of the "trade-in" program to CNY 300 billion, targeting the automotive and home appliance sectors[15] - Income mechanisms are being improved to enhance consumer spending capacity, with a focus on service consumption as a new growth point[15] Risk Management - The report highlights a strategy to gradually resolve risks while promoting development, particularly in the real estate sector[16] - Local government debt management will prioritize development over debt reduction, facilitating economic activity recovery[16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy-A" with a target price of 416.07 CNY per share, maintaining the rating [6]. Core Views - BYD's February sales reached 318,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 161% and a month-on-month increase of 7%. The sales of pure electric vehicles were 125,000 units, up 127% year-on-year, while plug-in hybrid vehicles sold 193,000 units, up 189% year-on-year [1]. - The launch of intelligent driving models is expected to enhance BYD's competitiveness in the market below 200,000 CNY, driving sales growth and providing significant data and cost advantages [2]. - High-end brands performed as expected, with sales of the Fangchengbao brand reaching 4,942 units, a year-on-year increase of 114%. The Tengshi brand sold 8,513 units, up 85% year-on-year [3]. - Overseas sales reached a record high of 67,000 units in February, a year-on-year increase of 188%, driven by new model launches and increased shipping capacity [3]. - BYD raised approximately 56 billion USD through the placement of H-shares, which will be used for R&D, overseas business development, and working capital [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - February sales of BYD's Dynasty and Ocean series were 150,000 and 152,000 units respectively, with year-on-year increases of 184% and 149% [2]. - The company’s overseas sales in January and February consistently exceeded 60,000 units per month, indicating strong international demand [4]. Financial Outlook - The projected net profits for BYD from 2024 to 2026 are 41.03 billion, 55.02 billion, and 62.12 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24.4, 18.9, and 16.1 [8]. - The report anticipates continued growth in revenue, with expected revenues of 72.25 billion, 84.01 billion, and 94.93 billion CNY for the years 2024 to 2026 [10]. Strategic Initiatives - The funds raised from the H-share placement will support capacity expansion, channel development, and new product launches, enhancing BYD's long-term growth prospects [4]. - The introduction of new models such as the Han L, Tang L, and Tengshi N9 is expected to upgrade the sales structure and improve profitability [8].

Market Indicators - The micro trading temperature index has decreased to 44%, down 5 percentage points from the previous period[12] - The proportion of indicators in the overheated range has dropped to 15%, with only 3 out of 20 indicators classified as overheated[16] - The TL/T long-short ratio has significantly decreased by 55 percentage points to 24%, moving from the overheated to the cold range[20] Institutional Behavior - The fund duration has fallen to 2.87 years, with a 23 percentage point decline in its percentile value, indicating a shift to the cold range[24] - The configuration plate strength has increased by 27 percentage points, moving into the overheated range[23] - The pressure for profit-taking in bond funds has decreased by 18 percentage points to 0%, indicating a cold market[26] Interest Rate Dynamics - The policy interest rate has turned positive for the first time in four months, with the 3-year government bond yield rising from -2 basis points to 2 basis points[26] - The credit spread and the agricultural development bond spread have widened by 8 basis points and 4 basis points, respectively[27] - The average spread among various interest rates has slightly widened from 21 basis points to 22 basis points, with a 2 percentage point increase in its percentile value[27] Price Comparisons - The commodity price ratio has decreased by 9 percentage points to 32%, moving from the neutral to the cold range[28] - The consumer goods price ratio remains in the overheated range at 100%, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures[29]