Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes a return to fundamentals in the real estate industry, suggesting a shift from scale-driven growth to a focus on sustainable development and quality [1][2] - The report predicts a decline in total sales area for 2026, estimating it at 850 million square meters, a decrease of 6.4% year-on-year, with a notable drop in pre-sale housing sales [3][19] - The total inventory of commercial housing is projected to decrease from a peak of 4.25 billion square meters in 2021 to 2.77 billion square meters by September 2025, indicating a significant reduction in market supply [13][19] Group 2 - New construction area for 2026 is estimated at 600 million square meters, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, supported by improved land acquisition in core cities [3][28] - The report anticipates a completion area of 540 million square meters in 2026, down 13.2% from the previous year, primarily due to the ongoing impact of reduced new construction in prior years [3][35] - The total construction area is expected to reach 6.11 billion square meters, representing an 8% decline, as the industry continues to recover from previous disruptions [3][44] Group 3 - Real estate development investment is projected to total 7.8 trillion yuan in 2026, a decrease of 8.3% year-on-year, with construction-related investments expected to decline significantly [3][56] - The report highlights that the construction investment component is expected to be 4.4 trillion yuan, down 10.7%, while other expenses, primarily driven by land acquisition costs, are projected at 3.4 trillion yuan, down 4.9% [57][58] - The overall investment landscape reflects a cautious recovery, with a focus on stabilizing financing conditions and improving operational efficiency within the industry [22][57]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" and the rating is maintained [6]. Core Viewpoints - The defense and military industry has shown a defensive stance amidst the overall market pullback, with the Shenyin Wanguo Defense and Military Industry Index outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index during the same period [1][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - During the week from November 14 to November 21, 2025, the China Securities Military Industry Index fell by 2.5% to 11,663.3 points, while the China Defense Index decreased by 3.16% to 1,564.16 points. The Shenyin Wanguo Defense and Military Industry Index dropped by 1.72% to 1,642.78 points. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.9% to 3,834.89 points, and the CSI 300 Index decreased by 3.77% to 4,453.61 points. The Shenyin Wanguo Defense and Military Industry Index outperformed all major indices during this period [1][14]. 2. Individual Stock Performance - The top ten performing defense and military stocks for the week included Jianglong Shipbuilding (+64.97%), Aerospace Development (+31.77%), and Tianhai Defense (+22.74%). Conversely, the worst performers included Maixinlin (-15.45%) and Tian'ao Electronics (-12.93%) [2][16]. 3. Key Company Announcements - Newyu Guoke reported a reduction in shareholding by a major shareholder, while Tianhai Defense announced a plan to reduce shares held by its second-largest shareholder. Other companies like Huanxin Technology and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft also made significant announcements regarding financial support and board meetings [3][19]. 4. Industry News - Recent news highlights include a significant drop in European defense stocks due to U.S. support for a peace plan in Ukraine, and the supply of attack drones to Ukraine by a Lithuanian startup. Additionally, the UK aircraft carrier strike group achieved "full operational capability" during NATO exercises [11][20]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the aviation engine and turbine markets, as well as the aerospace sector and carrier-based aircraft supply chains. Specific companies to watch include Hangfa Power, Hangfa Technology, and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes a return to fundamentals in the real estate industry, suggesting a shift from scale-driven growth to a focus on sustainable development and quality [1] - The report predicts a decline in total sales area for 2026, estimating it at 850 million square meters, a decrease of 6.4% year-on-year, with a notable drop in pre-sale housing sales [3][19] - The total inventory of commercial housing is projected to decrease from a peak of 4.25 billion square meters in 2021 to 2.77 billion square meters by September 2025, indicating a significant reduction in market supply [13] Group 2 - New construction area for 2026 is estimated at 600 million square meters, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, supported by improved land acquisition in core cities [28][30] - The report anticipates a completion area of 540 million square meters in 2026, down 13.2% from the previous year, primarily due to the ongoing impact of reduced construction starts in prior years [36][38] - The total construction area is expected to reach 6.11 billion square meters by the end of 2026, representing an 8% decline, with a significant reduction in the proportion of halted projects [45][46] Group 3 - Real estate development investment is projected to total 7.8 trillion yuan in 2026, a decrease of 8.3% year-on-year, with construction-related investments expected to decline by 10.7% [57][58] - The report highlights that the decline in construction area will significantly impact the growth rate of construction investments, while the easing of material prices is expected to mitigate some of the downward pressure [53][58] - The investment in land acquisition is anticipated to support the overall investment figures, as the decline in land purchase amounts is expected to narrow, providing a buffer for other investment categories [56][58]

Fiscal Policy Insights - In October, general public budget revenue growth was 3.2% year-on-year, a slight increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Tax revenue grew by 8.6% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to last month, while non-tax revenue plummeted by 33%, a significant drop of 21.5 percentage points[4] - General public budget expenditure fell by 3% year-on-year, marking a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, the lowest in nearly a year[6] - Government fund revenue decreased by 18.3% year-on-year, a sharp decline of 23.7 percentage points from the previous month, with land transfer revenue down by 27.5%[6] Market Trends - The equity market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern until the Central Economic Work Conference in December, with limited risk of a significant downturn due to favorable risk appetite and a loose liquidity environment[2] - Recent dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials have alleviated concerns about a rate hike in December, leading to a slight recovery in market risk appetite[2] - The bond market is anticipated to enter a phase of fluctuation in the short term, influenced by changes in market risk preferences and inflation expectations[12] Labor Market Analysis - The U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, a significant increase from the previous month's initial value of 97,000[15] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a weakening labor market[16] - Wage growth showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with year-on-year growth remaining stable at 3.8%[16]

2025 年 11 月 24 日 建筑 证券研究报告 投资评级 领先大市-A 维持评级 | | | 行业表现 chenyf4@essence.com.cn 低估值基建央企具备稳健防御属性，出 海/洁净室工程延续高景气度 本周投资建议： 受大盘调整影响，本周建筑板块下跌 6.11%，传统建筑央企板块下跌 3.63%。年初以来，受下游基建投资增速放缓及房地产投资持续下滑 等因素影响，传统建筑央企经营承压，年初至今股价下跌 10.70%， 目前建筑板块及传统建筑央企估值位居低位，截至目前，SW 建筑装 饰板块市盈率（TTM）为 9.0 倍，传统建筑央企板块市盈率（TTM） 为 5.4 倍。基建央企板块营收业绩成长仍承压，但关键性经营指标有 所改善，且多家企业提升分红比例，财政政策维持积极基调，化债效 果或于 2026 年逐步体现，板块整体具备稳健防御属性，建议关注 Q4 低估值传统建筑央企板块投资机会。此外，西部区域建设及洁净室板 块维持高景气，需求持续上行驱动龙头企业成长。 2023 年以来，八大建筑央企海外新签订单维持两位数快速增长，2023 年、2024 年、2025Q1-Q3 合计海外新签订单增速分别为 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" compared to the market [5] Core Insights - Google has released Gemini 3, a next-generation large model that achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance across multiple testing sets, integrating Google's multimodal, search, and programming capabilities [10][28] - Gemini 3 demonstrates strong reasoning abilities, achieving a score of 37.5% on the Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) without tools, surpassing GPT-5.1's score of 26.5%. With the addition of search and programming tools, the score increases to 45.8% [10][12] - The model excels in multimodal input and output, seamlessly integrating text, images, video, audio, and code, with advanced reasoning and visual understanding capabilities [11][28] - Google also introduced Nano Banana Pro, which significantly enhances image generation capabilities, allowing for professional-level design and multi-language text generation [15][28] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The computer sector has shown a relative performance of -2.81% for the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 3.90% [21][20] - The computer industry ranked 6th among 30 industry indices this week, indicating a relatively strong position within the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sectors [23] Key Developments - The launch of Gemini 3 is seen as a significant step towards artificial general intelligence (AGI), showcasing advanced text, logic, and scientific reasoning capabilities [28] - The introduction of Google Antigravity, an AI integrated development environment (IDE), allows for autonomous planning and execution of complex software tasks [11][28] - Nano Banana Pro's capabilities include precise multi-language text generation and enhanced creative control for image editing, marking a shift towards professional applications in AI image generation [15][28]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a significant adjustment, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 3.90% and the ChiNext Index falling by 6.15% this week, reflecting a shift from high to low valuation stocks [1][16][25] - The report highlights that the current market volatility is characterized as "clear air turbulence," suggesting that while fluctuations are present, the long-term bullish trend remains intact [2][30] - It is noted that the A-share market's high valuation levels are becoming increasingly unsustainable, with a need for a transition from a liquidity-driven bull market to a fundamental-driven bull market [2][38] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the internal factors driving the market's adjustment include a rapid shift from high to low valuation stocks, particularly in the technology sector, where significant capital outflows have been observed [2][32][36] - External factors, such as concerns over the AI investment bubble and the declining expectations for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, have contributed to the downward pressure on global risk assets, including A-shares [2][30][37] - The report suggests that the transition to a fundamental-driven bull market will require monitoring the easing of political cycles and the recovery of economic cycles, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [2][3][4] Group 3 - The report identifies a significant style shift in the A-share market, with a notable preference for sectors such as power equipment, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals, while technology stocks have faced increased selling pressure [55][56][57] - It is highlighted that the technology sector is experiencing internal differentiation, with strong performance in segments supported by fundamental trends, while weaker segments are underperforming [56][78] - The report also notes that the current high levels of institutional investment in technology stocks, exceeding 40%, indicate a potential risk of overexposure in this sector [77][78]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" with a rating of A [7] Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in small nucleic acid drugs for the treatment of hepatitis B, particularly the promising data from the drug AHB-137 presented at the AASLD 2025 conference, indicating its potential as the best small nucleic acid drug for hepatitis B [3][22] Summary by Sections Weekly New Drug Market Review - From November 17 to November 23, 2025, the top five gainers in the new drug sector were: - LaiKai Pharmaceutical (+13.34%) - Beihai Kangcheng (+2.67%) - Jiahe Biotech (+2.19%) - Yongtai Biotech (+1.94%) - Youzhi You (+1.14%) - The top five losers were: - WuXi AppTec (-15.75%) - Adi Pharma (-14.56%) - Mengke Pharma (-14.34%) - Yiming Oncology (-13.40%) - Kain Technology (-13.04%) [1][16] Weekly Focused Investment Targets - The report suggests focusing on several promising targets due to upcoming catalysts, including: 1. Products with high certainty for overseas expansion certified by MNCs: Sanofi, Federated Pharmaceuticals, and Kelun-Botai 2. Products with overseas data catalysts: Betta Pharmaceuticals, Hutchison China MediTech, and Yiming Biotech 3. Potential blockbuster products for overseas licensing by MNCs: Fuhong Hanlin, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, and Yifang Biotech 4. New innovative drug technology breakthroughs: small nucleic acids, in vivo CAR-T, fat reduction and muscle gain, autoimmune CAR-T/bispecific antibodies, and gene therapy [2][20] Weekly New Drug Industry Analysis - The report emphasizes the breakthrough data for small nucleic acid drugs in treating hepatitis B, particularly the two-phase follow-up data for AHB-137, which shows a high potential for becoming the leading small nucleic acid drug in this field [3][22] Weekly New Drug Approval & Acceptance Status - No new drug or new indication approvals were reported this week, but six new drug or new indication applications were accepted [4][24] Weekly New Drug Clinical Application Approval & Acceptance Status - This week, 42 new drug clinical applications were approved, and 44 new drug clinical applications were accepted [5][26] Domestic Market Key Events TOP3 - Key events included: 1. Zean Biopharma's strategic collaboration with GSK to develop up to four "first-in-class" candidates in oncology [11] 2. Innovent Biologics announcing successful Phase III clinical study results for a drug in moderate to severe obesity [11] 3. Fuhong Hanlin's FDA approval for a biosimilar product [11] Overseas Market Key Events TOP3 - Key events included: 1. Merck's presentation of key Phase III trial results at the AHA Scientific Sessions [12] 2. Johnson & Johnson's acquisition of Halda Therapeutics for $3.05 billion [12] 3. The EMA's recommendation for the approval of a gene therapy product [12]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors, nor does it provide any related construction processes, formulas, or backtesting results[1][7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the industry [5] Core Insights - The epoxy active diluents are expected to see sustained demand growth due to their excellent properties and wide applications, particularly in composite materials, coatings, electronics, and adhesives [2] - The recent fire incident at XinYuan Technology, the largest global producer of epoxy active diluents, may lead to a temporary shortage in supply, impacting the global market [3] - Price increases have been observed in the market due to supply tightness, with significant price hikes reported for various active diluents [4] Summary by Sections - **Industry Overview**: The global consumption of epoxy active diluents was approximately 228,000 tons in 2021, with significant demand from composite materials (32%), coatings (16%), and electronics (15%) [2] - **Market Dynamics**: The rapid growth of wind power installations in China is expected to drive demand for epoxy active diluents, with a projected increase of 51.39 GW in new installations in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 99% [2] - **Supply Chain Impact**: XinYuan Technology has a production capacity of 50,000 tons and accounted for 20% of the global market share in 2021. The fire incident may disrupt supply chains and lead to a temporary shortage [3] - **Price Trends**: Recent market conditions have led to significant price increases for epoxy active diluents, with reported price hikes of 18%, 16%, and 24% for different products as of November 21 [4] - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies such as Kangda New Materials and Huangma Technology are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their production capacities in epoxy resin diluents [11]