总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年10月28日 [Table_NewTitle] "特朗普交易"博弈升温，美债利率走高 ————FICC&资产配置周观察(20241021-20241027） [table_main] 投资要点 特朗普交易成为市场博弈重要变量。近期美国七大关键摇摆州加大对特朗普的押注，特朗 普的整体民调支持率抬升明显。截至2024年10月26日，博彩平台Polymarket预测显示特 朗普获选胜率达到65.3%，较哈里斯34.8%的数据高出30.5%。RCP民调数据则显示特朗 普和哈里斯获选概率分别为48.5%和48.4%，8月至今，特朗普在该平台的数据由落后转为 追平再转为反超。背后潜在原因分析：1）飓风影响。10月初，五级飓风"米尔顿"袭击美国 北卡罗来纳州，造成损失或超500亿美元。而现任民主党政府对灾后补贴支出力度有限， 民众对哈里斯上任后政策落地效果缺乏信任。2）马斯克对特朗普的公开支持。马斯克等 部分科技巨头代表公开表示将支持特朗普，尽管特朗普更支持传统能源的发展，但其对大 型企业的减税政策和较宽松的监管环境将从长期视角对特斯拉等科技企业形成利多。3） ...

行 业 研 究 电 子 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年10月28日 行 业 周 报 [Table_Authors] 证券分析师 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [table_product] 相关研究 1.8月国内手机出货量同比上升 1. 2024Q3全球智能手机出货量同比 上涨4%，消费电子终端新品迎来发 布热潮——电子行业周报 （20241014-20241020） 2. AMD推出新一代GPU MI325X， 预计第四季度存储合约价涨幅收敛 ——电子行业周报（20241007- 20241013） 3. 8月国内手机出货量同比上升 26.7%，联想发布多款AIPC新品— —电子行业周报（20240923- 20240929） 26.7%，联想发布多款AIPC新 品 — — 电 子 行 业 周 报 （20240923-20240929） [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle] 原生鸿蒙正式开启公测，国内汽车电子 相关 ...

总 量 研 究 Table_Reportdate] 2024年10月27日 宏 观 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 胡少华 S0630516090002 hush@longone.com.cn [关注进一步政策措施和行业趋势 Table_NewTitle] ——宏观双周报（20241014-20241025） [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 核心观点：近两周内处于政策落地密集期，货币政策方面，支持权益市场的互换便利以 及回购增持再贷款落地，存款及LPR利率也完成下调。地产政策方面，100万套棚改以及 4万亿元白名单信贷规模增量措施释放积极信号。9月部分经济数据较7、8月有所改善， 但仍处于较低水平，企业利润增速仍处低位，等侍政策落地后的数据改善。发改委表示 截至目前，有将近一半增量政策已出台实施，接下来还将有一批增量政策继续出台实 施。国家主席习近平在安徽考察时强调，要抓好第四季度经济工作，努力实现全年经济 社会发展目标。我们认为本轮政策力度较大，短期需关注11月人大常委会确定具体化债 规模 ...

行 业 研 机 械 设 备 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年10月26日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王敏君 S0630522040002 wmj@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -30% -20% -9% 1% 12% 22% 33% 23-10 24-01 24-04 24-07 申万行业指数:机械设备(0764) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.国茂股份（603915）：需求有待企 稳，经营性回款改善——公司简评报 告 [table_invest] 超配 [Table_NewTitle 构建定制化方案 ]，国产自动化品牌夯实 竞争力 ——机械设备行业周报（20241021-202401025） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 外资龙头财报回顾：西门子自动化硬件需求仍待企稳，工业软件收入增长亮眼。2024Q3， 西门子数字工业板块订单同比增长21%，主要受益于软件业务的发展；自动化硬件业务仍 然承压，但订单水平好于2023Q4，库存水平仍有升高。从收入端来看，2024Q3数字工业 板 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年10月25日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20241025 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 联系人： 付天赋 ftfu@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.宠物食品国产升级、出口持续增长齐发力——宠物食品行业研究框架专题报告 ➢ 2.周期演绎：高质量与长盈利——生猪养殖行业研究框架专题报告 财经要闻 ➢ 1.国家主席习近平出席"金砖+"领导人对话会。 ➢ 2.国务院总理李强在宁夏、内蒙古调研。 ➢ 3.欧美10月制造业PMI初值略高于预期。 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | 正文 ...

匠心铸就国重器，自主创新赢未来 机械行业研究框架专题报告 证券分析师：谢建斌 执业证书编号： S0630522020001 联系人：商俭 联系方式：shangjian@longone.com.cn 2024年10月25日 www.longone.com.cn DHS ic 东海证券 目 录 一、机械设备行业研究框架 二、工程机械：挖掘机 三、通用设备：数控机床 四、轨道设备：轨交设备 五、专用设备: 煤炭开采设备 六、自动化设备：人形机器人 七、风险提示 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LON DHS ~ 东海证券 ● 复盘机械行业十年股价表现，影响机械行业股价表现的因素有多个方面，主要包括政策支持、货币金融、技术创新、国 产替代和海外出口等。近期，我国的一揽子金融政策落地；同时，新质生产力推动科技创新，以及大规模设备更新激活 存量需求，机械行业或将迎来机遇。从机械行业整体估值来看，十年内的均值PE为43.19倍，截止10月24日机械行业估 值为33.35倍，仍处于均值以下，存在较大弹性空间。 3 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 -50% 0% 50% 100% ...

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年10月24日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20241024 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 联系人： 付天赋 ftfu@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.供需格局向好，景气周期到来——氟化工行业研究框架专题报告 ➢ 2.宁德时代（300750）：盈利能力持续提升，新产品推进顺利——公司简评报告 财经要闻 ➢ 1.国家主席习近平在金砖国家领导人第十六次会晤上讲话。 ➢ 2.国新办就2024年前三季度工业和信息化发展情况举行发布会。 ➢ 3.美商务部拟部分撤销中国光伏电池的反倾销税和反补贴税。 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company's overall asset quality remains excellent, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.77%, slightly up by 1 basis point from the previous quarter [3][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 8.37 billion yuan, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.976 billion yuan, up 18.17% year-on-year [3][4]. - The net interest margin for the first three quarters is 2.75%, down 20 basis points year-on-year, reflecting ongoing pressure on the asset side [3][4]. - Investment income has shown a significant decline in Q3, dropping to 222 million yuan from 498 million yuan in the same period last year, primarily due to a weaker bond market [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved an operating income of 8.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, and a net profit of 2.976 billion yuan, up 18.17% year-on-year [3][4]. - The total asset scale as of June 30 is 362.743 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.44% [3]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio stands at 0.77%, with a provision coverage ratio of 528.4%, down by 10.41 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The company has seen an increase in the proportion of loans under special attention, rising by 16 basis points to 1.52% [3]. Loan and Deposit Trends - Q3 saw a weaker growth in personal loans, while bill discounting remained strong, indicating a shift in demand [3][4]. - The company continues to maintain a strong deposit growth, significantly outperforming the M2 growth rate, with a slight increase in the proportion of demand deposits [3][4]. Interest Margin and Investment Income - The net interest margin is under pressure, with a quarterly measurement of 2.67%, down 8 basis points from the previous quarter and 18 basis points year-on-year [3][4]. - Investment income has decreased significantly in Q3, attributed to a weaker bond market and regulatory constraints on investment scale [4]. Future Outlook - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2024-2026, expecting operating revenues of 10.859 billion, 11.487 billion, and 12.732 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 3.840 billion, 4.235 billion, and 4.765 billion yuan [4][11]. - The company is expected to benefit from a high proportion of fixed-term deposits amidst declining interest rates, and its overall asset quality remains robust [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's performance is generally in line with expectations, with a revenue of 9.082 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 5.94%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.673 billion yuan, an increase of 4.44% [6][7] - The company is experiencing short-term pressure in the digestive field, while the reproductive, mental health, and diagnostic reagent sectors are performing well [6] - The research pipeline is advancing rapidly, with several key products expected to contribute to future revenue growth [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.799 billion yuan, down 5.59%, and a net profit of 502 million yuan, up 7.45% [6] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 65.81%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 21.43%, up 4.61 percentage points [6] - The company has effectively reduced costs, with a sales expense ratio of 27.05%, down 2.10 percentage points [6] Sector Performance - The chemical preparation sector generated 4.714 billion yuan in revenue, down 8.52%, with the digestive field seeing a significant decline of 18.66% [6] - The reproductive hormone sector's revenue increased by 5.46%, driven by expanded coverage and new approvals [6] - The diagnostic reagent and equipment sector saw a revenue increase of 21.03%, primarily due to strong sales of respiratory products [6] Research and Development - The company is focusing on high-barrier complex formulations and specialty biological products, with several key products advancing through clinical trials [7] - Notable products include the long-acting release formulation of leuprolide, which has received FDA approval, and the upcoming launch of aripiprazole microspheres [7] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.159 billion yuan, 2.382 billion yuan, and 2.663 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.03 for 2024, indicating a stable investment opportunity [7]

公 司 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年10月25日 农 林 牧 渔 公 司 简 评 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈涛 cht@longone.com.cn | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-------------| | | | | 数据日期 Table_cominfo] | 2024/10/24 | | 收盘价 | 64.45 | | 总股本 ( 万股 ) | 40,004 | | 流通 A 股 /B 股 ( 万股 ) | 17,902/0 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 12.08% | | 市净率 ( 倍 ) | 6.31 | | 净资产收益率 ( 加权 ) | 12.04 | | 12 个月内最高 / 最低价 | 72.88/30.16 | [Table_QuotePic] -34% -18% -2% 14% 29% 45% 61% 76% 23-10 24-0 ...