[Table_Reportdate] 2025年3月3日 标配 [Table_Authors] 证券分析师 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 [table_stockTrend] [table_product] 相关研究 1.8月国内手机出货量同比上升 26.7%，联想发布多款AIPC新 品 — — 电 子 行 业 周 报 （20240923-20240929） 1. 阿里资本开支持续高增，马斯克 公布新一代AI模型Grok3——电子行 业周报（2025/2/17-2025/2/23） 2. 大陆代工龙头Q4业绩符合指引， 苹果即将发布iPhone SE4——电子 行业周报（2025/2/10-2025/2/16） 3. 北美云厂商资本开支持续高增， 海外科技股24Q4业绩多数回暖—— 电子行业周报（2025/2/3- 2025/2/9） [Table_NewTitle] 英伟达Blackwell芯片需求高涨，小米新 机与新车发布拉动市场热情 ——电子行业周报2025/2/24-2025/3/2 [table_main] 投资要点： 行 业 研 究 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月02日 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [布局国内 Table_NewTitle]PMI数据利好方向，关注美债利 率变量 ——资产配置周报（2025/02/24-2025/02/28） 投资要点 总 量 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_main] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾：2月28日当周，全球股市多数收跌，A股普遍调整，美股、欧股涨跌不 一；主要商品期货价格多数收跌，黄金、铜、原油均下跌；美元指数有所反弹，非美货币 贬值。1）权益方面：英国富时 ...

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In February 2025, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2%, up from 49.1% in January[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI increased to 50.4%, compared to 50.2% in the previous month[2] - The seasonal rebound in PMI is influenced by the post-Spring Festival recovery, with a month-on-month improvement of 1.1% in February, exceeding the average of 0.86% since 2010[2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Insights - The production index rose to 52.5% (+2.7 percentage points), and the new orders index increased to 51.1% (+1.9 percentage points), both reaching their highest levels since April 2024[2] - Supply remains slightly better than demand, as indicated by the production and new orders indices[2] - The inventory index shows a divergence, with finished goods inventory rising while raw materials inventory declined, reflecting different recovery paces in upstream and downstream sectors[2] Group 3: Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs are above the neutral line, while energy-intensive and consumer goods sectors remain below it[2] - The construction PMI rose to 52.7%, a 3.4 percentage point increase, driven by accelerated infrastructure projects post-holiday[2] - The service sector PMI decreased to 50.0% (-0.3 percentage points), with consumer-related industries showing a notable decline in business activity[2] Group 4: Price Indices and Risks - The main raw material purchase price index increased to 50.3% (+1.3 percentage points), while the factory price index rose to 48.5% (+1.1 percentage points), both remaining at low absolute levels[2] - Risks include potential underperformance of growth stabilization policies, uncertainties from tariff policies, and unexpected changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions[2]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年02月28日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250228 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 方霁 S0630524090001 fangji@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人 [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 陈芯楠 cxn@longone.com.cn ➢ 1.叉车全年销量保持增长，龙头企业深入智能物流领域——机械设备行业简评 ➢ 2.春耕推动氯化钾价格上涨，全球供应趋紧有望推升钾肥景气度——基础化工行业简评 ➢ 1.两部门印发《银行业保险业绿色金融高质量发展实施方案》 ➢ 2.商务部：中日应加强政策沟通，维护产供链稳定 ➢ 3.美国上修2024Q4PCE及核心PCE ➢ 4.英伟达第四财季营收同比增78% 一季度 ...

Group 1 - Forklift sales maintained growth in 2024, with total sales reaching 1.2855 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.52%. Domestic sales were 805,000 units, up 4.77%, while exports were 480,500 units, up 18.53% [6][7] - In January 2025, forklift sales were 93,648 units, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4%, with domestic sales down 24% and exports slightly up by 0.69% [6][7] - The electric forklift segment showed strong performance, with sales of 946,300 units in 2024, accounting for 73.61% of total sales, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.74 percentage points [7] Group 2 - The price of potassium chloride in China rose rapidly, reaching 3,121 CNY per ton by February 24, 2025, a 10.05% increase from the previous week and a 24.05% increase since the beginning of 2025 [12][14] - The increase in potassium chloride prices is attributed to tight domestic supply, limited import sources, and low inventory levels, alongside rising demand from compound fertilizer manufacturers preparing for the spring farming season [12][14] - The International Fertilizer Association (IFA) forecasts a 2.2% increase in global fertilizer consumption in 2025, with potassium chloride consumption expected to reach 41 million tons, indicating a supportive environment for potassium fertilizer demand [14]

Group 1: Potash Industry Insights - The price of potassium chloride in China has rapidly increased, reaching 3121 CNY/ton as of February 24, 2025, marking a 10.05% rise from the previous week and a 24.05% increase since the beginning of 2025 [7][8] - The rise in prices is attributed to tight domestic supply, limited import sources, and low inventory levels, with domestic potassium production facilities undergoing maintenance [7][8] - The International Fertilizer Association (IFA) forecasts a 2.2% increase in global fertilizer consumption in 2025, with potassium consumption expected to reach 41 million tons, supported by improved affordability of potash [9] Group 2: Agricultural Policy and Food Security - The Central Document No. 1 emphasizes the importance of food security and the development of new agricultural productivity, focusing on enhancing the supply capacity of key agricultural products [12][13] - The document outlines strategies to stabilize grain planting areas while increasing yield and quality, with a target of achieving a significant increase in grain production capacity [13] - It highlights the need for technological innovation in agriculture, promoting the application of advanced technologies to enhance productivity [15] Group 3: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3346 points, down 0.80%, and the ChiNext Index falling by 1.13% [22][23] - The energy metals sector showed resilience, leading the market with a 1.4% increase, while other sectors like film and agriculture faced declines [26][24] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 300 billion CNY medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation to maintain liquidity, with a current balance of 40,940 billion CNY [17]

Investment Rating - Industry Index Rating: Overweight, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more in the next 6 months [9] Core Insights - The forklift market showed steady growth in 2024, with total sales reaching 1.2855 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.52%. Domestic sales accounted for 805,000 units (up 4.77%), while exports reached 480,500 units (up 18.53%) [8] - In January 2025, sales of various forklifts totaled 93,648 units, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4%, with domestic sales down 24% and exports up 0.69% [8] - The electric forklift segment is gaining traction, with sales of 946,300 units in 2024, representing 73.61% of total sales, an increase of 5.74 percentage points year-on-year [8] - Anhui Heli is deepening its collaboration with Huawei to lead technological upgrades in the smart logistics sector, focusing on digital transformation and AI [8] - Hangcha Group is exploring cooperation in the "smart robots + logistics" field, aiming to enhance its technological capabilities and market competitiveness [8] - The forklift industry is transitioning towards automation and smart logistics, with significant growth in the sales of mobile robots, which reached 19,500 units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 46.6% [8] - The report suggests focusing on leading domestic forklift companies like Anhui Heli and Hangcha Group, which have strong brand recognition and global market penetration [8] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The overall forklift market is experiencing robust growth, with both domestic and international demand increasing [8] Company Developments - Anhui Heli and Huawei's partnership aims to innovate in smart logistics, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape [8] - Hangcha Group is actively pursuing advancements in logistics robotics, indicating a shift towards more intelligent solutions in the industry [8] Future Outlook - The demand for forklifts is expected to remain strong, driven by manufacturing recovery and increased logistics activity, with a focus on automation and smart technologies [8]

Group 1 - The report highlights the ongoing growth in new orders for Kede CNC (688305), with a year-on-year increase of approximately 24% in new orders, primarily driven by the machine tool business [10][11] - Kede CNC's revenue for 2024 reached 605 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.88%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 130 million yuan, up 27.91% [10][11] - The company has received significant government subsidies totaling 69.09 million yuan, which positively impacted its financial performance, accounting for 36.43% of the net profit for 2024 [11] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the long-term investment opportunities in the technology sector, particularly in artificial intelligence and robotics, which are leading the market recovery [6][7] - The domestic equity market shows a preference for growth sectors over cyclical and consumer sectors, with a daily average trading volume of 1.8834 trillion yuan, up from 1.7168 trillion yuan [7] - The report notes that the overall yield on domestic government bonds has risen, indicating an increase in market risk appetite, while the U.S. service sector PMI fell below expectations, suggesting potential economic challenges [6][8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more in the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of food security and the development of new agricultural productivity, as highlighted in the Central Document No. 1 released on February 23, 2025. The document outlines six key areas of focus, including enhancing the supply capacity of important agricultural products, consolidating poverty alleviation achievements, and promoting rural revitalization [4][5]. - The report notes a steady increase in grain planting area and yield, with the grain planting area reaching 119,319 thousand hectares in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, and the yield per unit area at 5,921 kg/hectare, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [4]. - The livestock sector is expected to stabilize, with a focus on supporting the beef and dairy industries, which have been facing significant losses. The report suggests that with policy support, the production and operational conditions in these sectors may improve [4][5]. - The report highlights the emphasis on technological innovation in agriculture, advocating for the development of new agricultural productivity through advanced production factors and the promotion of biotechnology in seed production [4][5]. Summary by Sections Grain Security - The report stresses the need to stabilize grain planting areas while focusing on increasing yield and quality. It aims to implement a new round of grain production capacity enhancement tasks [4][5]. Livestock Industry - The report indicates that the pig farming sector is expected to maintain stable development, with a focus on monitoring and adjusting production capacity. It also highlights the need for support in the beef and dairy industries to stabilize foundational production capacity [4][5]. Agricultural Technology - The report emphasizes the role of technological innovation in agriculture, advocating for the application of advanced technologies and the promotion of biotechnology in seed production. It notes the continuous push for the industrialization of biological breeding [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in seed production and livestock farming, particularly those with strong cost control capabilities, to better withstand cyclical fluctuations. Specific companies mentioned include Longping High-Tech, Denge Seed, Muyuan Foods, and others [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [9]. Core Insights - Recent rapid increase in domestic potassium chloride prices, with a 10.05% rise compared to the previous week and a 24.05% increase since the beginning of 2025, driven by tight domestic supply and increased demand for spring farming preparations [8]. - The International Fertilizer Association (IFA) forecasts a record high global fertilizer consumption in 2025, with potassium fertilizer consumption expected to reach 41 million tons, a 1% increase from the previous peak in 2020 [8]. - The report suggests focusing on leading domestic potassium fertilizer companies and those involved in overseas potassium resource extraction and production, such as Salt Lake Co., Yara International, and others [8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The domestic potassium chloride price reached 3121 RMB/ton as of February 24, 2025, with supply constraints and low inventory levels contributing to the price surge [8]. - The Russian Uralkali company announced maintenance shutdowns for three mines, which will reduce potassium fertilizer output by at least 300,000 tons in the second quarter of 2025 [8]. Demand Drivers - The upcoming spring farming season is expected to boost potassium fertilizer demand as compound fertilizer manufacturers prepare for raw material storage [8]. - The report highlights that the affordability of potassium and nitrogen fertilizers has improved, making them more attractive compared to other fertilizers [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends monitoring leading potassium fertilizer companies and those with international operations, as the tightening global supply and rising prices are likely to support demand [8].