[Table_Report] 2. [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月18日 [晨Tabl会e_N纪ewT要itle] 20240918 [证Ta券b分le析_A师u：thors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 联系人： 陈涛 cht@longone.com.cn 1.经济数据低于预期，政策预期有望升温——国内观察：2024年8月经济数据 2.内需仍显不足，外部约束有所放松——宏观双周报（20240902-20240913） [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 1.十四届全国常委会第十一次会议正式决定启动延迟退休改革。 2.央行发布8月金融数据。 3.金融监管总局：促进非银行金融机构支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动。 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 正文目录 | | 1 ...

Economic Data Overview - In August 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.1% year-on-year, down from 2.7% in the previous month[2] - Fixed asset investment (FAI) grew by 3.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous value of 3.6%[2] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises rose by 4.5% year-on-year, down from 5.1% in July[2] Consumer Behavior Insights - Service consumption outperformed goods consumption, with service retail sales growing by 6.9% year-on-year, compared to a 3.9% increase in goods retail sales[2] - The automotive sector saw a significant decline of 7.3%, likely due to price promotions, while home appliances rebounded with a growth of 3.4%[2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment showed a slight decline, with a month-on-month seasonally adjusted increase of only 0.16%, below the five-year average of 0.45%[2] - Manufacturing investment remained robust at 8.0%, although infrastructure investment dropped to 6.2%[3] Real Estate Market Challenges - Real estate development investment and sales area both experienced year-on-year declines exceeding 10%[3] - In August, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 19.62% year-on-year, indicating ongoing downward pressure despite a low base from the previous year[3] Industrial Production Dynamics - The industrial added value growth was impacted by high-energy-consuming products, which continued to show negative growth, while integrated circuits and smartphones saw increases of 17.8% and 8.9%, respectively[3] - Power generation increased by 5.75%, supporting the growth in public utility production[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy implementation falling short of expectations, continued downturn in the real estate sector, and risks of an economic recession in the United States[3]

总 量 研 究 Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月14日 宏 观 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 胡少华 S0630516090002 hush@longone.com.cn [内需仍显不足，外部约束有所放松 Table_NewTitle] ——宏观双周报（20240902-20240913） [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 核心观点：从国内通胀以及进出口增速等数据来看，当前内需仍相对不足，总量政策加 码的必要性仍在提升。8月政府债发行节奏加快，后续关注货币政策上的增量政策。美国 8月非农数据以及通胀数据进一步提升了9月降息25pbs的概率，但市场预期年内有 100bps幅度降息可能过于乐观。美国大选辩论后，哈里斯的支持率有所上升，关注大选 结果对美国财政赤字、通胀，以及全球贸易环境的影响。A股方面，近两周仍在缩量调 整，从估值看已有较大投资价值。 ➢ 内需方面，有效需求仍相对不足。从通胀数据来看，CPI的上升主要由食品推动，虽然猪 价年内仍会形成支撑，但天气等短期因素影响 ...

行 业 研 机 械 设 备 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月13日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王敏君 S0630522040002 wmj@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -34% -27% -20% -14% -7% 0% 7% 23-09 23-12 24-03 24-06 申万行业指数:机械设备(0764) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.国茂股份（603915）：需求有待企 稳，经营性回款改善——公司简评报 告 [table_invest] 超配 [Table_NewTitle 自动化设备下游有待企稳，寻找结构性 ] ——机械设备行业周报（20240909-20240913） 机会 [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 短期看，自动化设备内需市场整体增速放缓。按照申万行业分类，自动化设备为机械设备 下属二级行业，机器人、工控设备、激光设备为三级子行业。根据同花顺测算的行业平均 营收增速，2021年后，自动化设备领域主要子行业成长放缓，其中机器人板块2024H1平 均营收同比下降 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------|----------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师：杜永宏 执业证书编号： 联系人：付婷 联系方式： | 证券分析师：伍可心 执业证书编号： | S0630522120001 | | 2 核心观点 ● 受多因素扰动上半年业绩承压，下半年业绩有望企稳向好。统计432家医药生物板块上市公司2024H1整体实现营业收入 12287.04亿元，同比下降0.98%；归母净利润1024.87亿元，同比下降8.97%。2023Q1-2024Q2，医药生物行业上市公司营 收同比增速分别为2.10%、5.33%、-3.32%、-1.87%、-0.40%、-1.58%；归母净利润同比增速分别为0.16%、-1.25%、- 4.61%、4.02%、1.66%、-2.42%。受疫情基数 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月12日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20240912 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人： 花雨欣 hyx@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.国茂股份（603915）：需求有待企稳，经营性回款改善——公司简评报告 ➢ 2.旺季批价波动，关注需求复苏——食品饮料行业周报（2024/9/2-2024/9/8） 财经要闻 ➢ 1.国务院印发《关于加强监管防范风险推动保险业高质量发展的若干意见》 ➢ 2.美国8月未季调CPI低于预期，核心CPI持平预期 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 正文目录 1. 重点推荐 ............. 3 1.1. 国茂股份（603915 ): 需求有待企稳，经营性回款改善――公司简评报告.. 3 1.2. 旺季批价波动，关注需求复苏――食品饮料行业周报（2024/ ...

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月12日 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 胡少华 S0630516090002 hush@longone.com.cn [核心通胀超预期 Table_NewTitle]，进一步提升9月小步伐 降息概率 ——海外观察：2024年8月美国CPI [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 事件：8月美国CPI同比上涨2.5%，预期2.6%，前值2.9%；环比上升0.2%，预期0.2%，前 值0.2%。8月美国核心CPI同比上涨3.2%，预期3.2%，前值3.2%；环比上涨0.3%，预期 0.2%，前值0.2%。 ➢ 核心观点：8月美国通胀低于预期，但核心CPI环比涨幅却有所扩大，超出市场预期。结构 上看，能源价格形成主要拖累，而住房价格涨幅继续扩大，服务业相关价格表现较好，同 时耐用品方面新车及二手车环比也均较前值有所上升，共同支撑了核心通胀。在通胀数据 公布之前，市场已预期9月美联储降息100%降息，而核心通胀的超预期强化了降息2 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月11日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20240911 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人： 花雨欣 hyx@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.8月外贸数据的"热"与"冷"——国内观察：2024年8月进出口数据 ➢ 2.中非光储领域合作推进，8月电车销量表现优异——电池及储能行业周报（20240902- 20240908） ➢ 3.光伏硅料硅片挺价，风电招开标规模持续增加——新能源电力行业周报（20240902- 20240908) 财经要闻 ➢ 1.十四届全国人大常委会第十一次会议在京举行 ➢ 2.外交部表示坚决反对美众议院通过的生物安全法草案 ➢ 3.习近平在全国教育大会上强调：紧紧围绕立德树人根本任务朝着建成教育强国战略目标 扎实迈进 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 正文目录 1. 重点推 ...

公 司 研 究 银 行 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月11日 公 司 简 评 [Table_invest] 增持（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-----------------| | | | | 数据日期 收盘价 | 2024/09/11 4.51 | | 总股本 ( 万股 ) | 9,916,108 | | 流通 A 股 /B 股 ( 万股 ) | 6,712,240/0 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 93.87% | | 市净率 ( 倍 ) | 0.44 | | 净资产收益率 ( 加权 ) | 5.72 | | 12 个月内最高 / 最低价 | 5.22/4.21 | [Table_QuotePic] -21% -16% -10% -5% 1% 6% 12% 17% 23-09 23-12 24-03 24-06 邮储银行 沪深300 [相关研究 Table_Report] ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target PE of 23X, 18X, and 15X for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5] Core Views - The company is a leader in the automotive lighting control segment, with a strong position in global platform projects and a clear trend of increasing market share [4] - The company is benefiting from the trend of vehicle EEA (Electrical/Electronic Architecture) upgrades, with successful expansion into new high-value products such as domain controllers and Efuse [4] - The company is entering a global operational phase, with plans to expand production capacity in key markets such as Japan, Europe, and North America [4] Company Overview - The company has a diversified product portfolio, including lighting control systems, motor control systems, energy management systems, and automotive electronics [11] - The company has a strong relationship with Volkswagen and has expanded its customer base to include BMW, Renault-Nissan, Ford, Toyota, and Suzuki [11] - The company is a family-owned business with a concentrated equity structure, with the controlling family holding a significant portion of the shares [13] Market Position and Growth - The company is a global leader in automotive lighting control, with a strong presence in the LED lighting segment and a growing market share in adaptive lighting systems [11] - The company has successfully expanded into new product areas such as domain controllers and Efuse, which are expected to drive future growth [4] - The company is focusing on global expansion, with plans to establish production facilities in Japan, Europe, and North America to serve local customers [14] Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit have shown strong growth, with revenue increasing by 37% YoY in 2023 and net profit increasing by 35% YoY [16] - The company's energy management system business has seen rapid growth, driven by the successful launch of new products such as chassis controllers and body domain controllers [17] - The company's gross margin has declined slightly due to increased competition in the domestic passenger vehicle market, but the energy management system business has shown improved profitability [18] Industry Trends - The automotive lighting industry is undergoing a transformation, with LED lighting becoming the dominant technology and adaptive lighting systems gaining popularity [22] - The trend towards vehicle EEA upgrades is driving demand for domain controllers and Efuse, which are expected to see rapid growth in the coming years [45] - The shift towards centralized and zonal EEA architectures is creating opportunities for new suppliers, particularly in the areas of body domain control and chassis control [53] Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends in automotive lighting and EEA upgrades, with a strong product portfolio and a growing customer base [4] - The company's focus on global expansion and new product development is expected to drive continued growth in the coming years [14] - The company's financial performance is expected to remain strong, with revenue and net profit projected to grow at a CAGR of 25% and 27% respectively from 2024 to 2026 [5]